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Orioles Checking In On Free Agent Shortstops

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This offseason features a group of shortstops often referred to as the “Big Four,” which consists of Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts an Dansby Swanson. While they have been connected in rumors to most of the high-spending clubs around the league, Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the Orioles have checked in on them. Heyman adds that it’s more likely they invest in starting pitching since their need at shortstop isn’t terribly strong and there are other teams involved, but the interest is noteworthy nonetheless.

The O’s have been deeply committed to a rebuild in recent years and have been among the least active teams in free agency. The last time they gave a free agent a contract longer than one year was to Alex Cobb back in March of 2018. The O’s have endured five straight losing seasons from 2017 to 2021, with the club finishing last in the American League East in all four full, 162-game seasons in that stretch. However, the club turned a corner in 2022, with their young core starting to emerge and helping the club go 83-79. That still only amounted to a fourth-place finish in the division, but they flirted with the postseason race for much of the second half and seem poised to see better results going forward.

On the heels of that step forward, general manager Mike Elias has spoken about going into a more competitive phase of the club’s rebuilding plan, though he has also attempted to temper expectations at the same time. “We’re not going to go from zero miles an hour to 60 miles an hour in one offseason,” Elias said, which would seem to be a coded way of saying that they will be more active than in years past but aren’t planning to suddenly jump to the top of the market.

Still, there are reasons for them to at least hover around the market and keep an eye on it. Just one year ago, Correa didn’t find the long-term deal he was looking for and ended up settling for a three-year deal with high salaries and opt outs after each season. If one of the “Big Four” found themselves in a similar situation this year, the O’s would be a good to try to take advantage of it.

Since the O’s have eschewed spending for so long, their payroll outlook is essentially clear. Their commitments for 2023 are just $41MM, according to Roster Resource, less than what Max Scherzer will make by himself. Despite their recent devotion to skinflintism, they ran payrolls around $150MM from 2016 to 2018 and can surely start inching their way back up there in the coming years. They could easily fit a sizeable contract on their ledger if they really wanted to. Giving out a second year on a contract would be even easier as their commitments for 2024 are exactly zero.

Leaving the financials aside, adding a shortstop also makes sense for pure baseball reasons. Jorge Mateo was the club’s everyday option this year, getting into 150 games on the season. Advanced defensive metrics were all quite fond of his work in the field and he stole 35 bases, but his work at the plate was subpar. He struck out in 27.6% of his plate appearances while walking in just 5.1% of them, finishing with a batting line of .221/.267/.379 and a wRC+ of 82. Mateo is still just 27, turning 28 in June, so it’s possible that he is still developing, but his numbers at Triple-A are fairly similar. His speed and defense still allow him to be a useful player, with FanGraphs calculating his WAR at 2.8 in 2022, but without a development at the plate it’s possible that is his ceiling.

In the long run, things get a bit more crowded since the club has a number of highly-touted middle infield prospects. Gunnar Henderson made his MLB debut in 2022 and played well in his first 34 games. He played mostly third base but could slide back to shortstop if that became the club’s ideal alignment. One of the club’s top prospects, Coby Mayo, is primarily a third baseman and it could make sense to bump Henderson back into the middle infield. Another top prospect, Joey Ortiz, seems poised to jump to the big leagues in 2023. He’s played some second and third base but is primarily a shortstop. Jordan Westburg’s situation is fairly similar. There’s also Jackson Holliday, just selected with the first overall pick in June. He’s still just 18 years old, turning 19 in two days, but he is hoped to be pushing into the middle infield picture down the line.

Given all those internal options, giving out a contract of $20-30MM over 7-9 years doesn’t seem like the most obvious use of the club’s resources, even if they do have money to spend. If they did consider it, it’s been often pointed out that Elias was with the Astros at the time Correa was drafted and was reportedly personally involved in the club’s decision to select him. He’s surely still quite fond of Correa, but the shortstop isn’t likely to settle for another subpar deal after doing it a year ago. He changed agencies during the lockout, a sign that he wasn’t happy with the way things were going. Though he did settle for a short-term deal last year, it’s long seemed obvious that the plan would be to return to the open market this year and find the kind of contract that will take him through the majority of his remaining career. MLBTR predicted him to land a deal worth $288MM over nine years, or $32MM per season.

The other three shortstops might require less expenditure than Correa, but not much less. MLBTR predicted Turner to get $268MM over eight years, Bogaerts to get $189 over seven years and Swanson $154MM over seven. Even at the lower end, Swanson is projected for $22MM per season. There doesn’t seem to be any shortage of suitors for their services this winter either, as the Phillies, Dodgers, Padres, Braves, Twins, Red Sox, Giants, Cubs and Mariners are some of the clubs to have reported interest in that group. As mentioned, it’s probably more likely that the Orioles devote their resources to starting pitching, with their interest in that market already reported.

Braves Open To Exceeding Luxury Tax Threshold

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Much attention this offseason has been paid to the Braves spending outlook. Atlanta boasts one of the league’s top rosters but currently faces a major question at shortstop. Dansby Swanson has hit the open market as one of the top players available, and the Braves have to determine whether to make another significant investment to keep the Gold Glove winner in the fold.

Retaining Swanson would surely involve pushing the club’s spending beyond the base competitive balance tax threshold. That figure is set at $233MM for 2023. Roster Resource presently forecasts Atlanta for around $228MM in luxury tax obligations. That includes projections for arbitration-eligible players Max Fried, A.J. Minter and Dennis Santana, which come with small error bars until those salaries are finalized. Still, one can estimate the team is at least within $10-15MM of next year’s base tax threshold before trying to retain Swanson or further augment the roster in left field or at designated hitter.

Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes that the Braves are giving internal consideration to surpassing the luxury tax in the right situation. That’s hardly a surprising development. Atlanta brass has already gone on record about their affinity for Swanson, and they reportedly offered him a deal in the $100MM range during the season. An offer in that realm would push the Braves into luxury tax territory if accepted, and Swanson’s widely expected to beat that figure fairly handily. MLBTR predicts he’ll receive a seven-year, $154MM deal. If Swanson’s contract winds up falling in that area, it’d tack on somewhere in the neighborhood of $22MM annually to the signing team’s ledger.

A team’s competitive balance tax number is calculated by adding the average annual values of a club’s commitments, in addition to player benefits. For CBT purposes, there’s no difference between backloaded, frontloaded or evenly-distributed contracts. That reduces (but doesn’t entirely eliminate) teams’ ability to creatively structure deals around the tax. Yet for most teams it puts the club’s luxury tax number above their actual payroll for the upcoming season. That’s particularly true of the Braves, who have signed a number of players to early-career extensions with salaries that escalate later in the deal. For example, the Spencer Strider deal contains a $12.5MM tax hit, but he’ll actually make just $1MM next season.

Roster Resource projects Atlanta’s actual 2023 spending just under $196MM at the moment. Toscano writes the organization is placing a greater emphasis on that figure than on their current CBT number. While it seems there’s still some room to maneuver from that perspective, the Braves are already projected well above their previous franchise record. They opened this past season with a payroll just south of $178MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That was an organizational high, and they’re nearly $20MM above that for 2023 before considering Swanson or any outside additions.

One would certainly expect payroll to rise on the heels of five straight division titles, including their 2021 World Series. Much has been made of multiple members of the Liberty Media ownership group suggesting the organization planned to eventually have a top five payroll, but as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored in October, they’re not far off that pace as is. It’s also difficult to identify ways for Atlanta to trim payroll without subtracting key contributors from the MLB roster. The team could probably find a taker for most or all of the $4.5MM owed to third catcher Manny Piña. They’d have a harder time shedding much of the $9MM they owe Eddie Rosario after the left fielder’s rough year, and they surely won’t find other clubs eager to assume much (or any) of the $37MM due to Marcell Ozuna over the next two seasons.

With the franchise already in uncharted waters, it’s difficult to glean from the outside how much flexibility is at hand for president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his staff. If the Braves wind up paying the luxury tax in 2023, the penalties they’d face would be relatively minor. They’d be taxed at a 20% rate for every dollar spent between $233MM and $253MM. That’d be followed by a 32% tax on spending between $253MM and $273MM, and they’d face stiffer penalties in the unlikely event they pushed beyond that second tier of penalization.

Finishing with a CBT number between $233MM and $253MM –which would be viable even if they re-signed Swanson — would come with a maximum of $4MM in additional fees. For a team that would already be spending upwards of $200MM on player payroll, that’s a relatively modest additional sum. Financial penalties escalate for teams that exceed the CBT threshold in multiple consecutive years, but the Braves are slated to see roughly $55MM in guaranteed commitments come off the books at the end of next season.

Phillies Reportedly Have Trea Turner As Top Priority

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The Phillies have shortstop Trea Turner as their top priority, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network. This lines up with reporting from Buster Olney and Jesse Rogers, both of ESPN, who each relay word from sources that feel the Phillies will sign one of the “Big Four” shortstops, which includes Turner as well as Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson.

The Phillies have been looking for a solution at shortstop for a few years now. They signed Didi Gregorius going into 2020, giving him a one-year deal. He performed well enough in the shortened season to stick around on a two-year deal, but that went south almost immediately. After he hit just .209/.270/.370 in 2021, there was some speculation that the Phillies would jump into last year’s big shortstop sweepstakes, featuring Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Baez, Trevor Story and Marcus Semien.

They ultimately stayed on the sidelines, giving Gregorius a chance to redeem himself in the last year of his deal. That didn’t work out, as he hit .210/.263/.304 this year and got released in August. They had to turn to their backup plan, which was prospect Bryson Stott. He had struggled over the first couple of months, hardly surprising given that it was his first major league action, getting optioned to the minors in April but returning after just a couple of weeks.

At the end of May, Stott was sitting on a miserable .123/.179/.151 batting line for a wRC+ of -8. Something seemed to click in June, as he hit .257/.318/.401 for a wRC+ of 102 from that point on, bringing his final line up to .234/.295/.358 and a wRC+ of 83. His glovework at short was considered below average by Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average, while Ultimate Zone Rating had him just a smidge above. That’s hardly a disastrous season for a rookie, but the Phils evidently didn’t see enough to consider Stott their long-term solution at the position and seem to be involved in the shortstop market for a second straight year. The club declined Jean Segura’s option, creating an opening at second base that Stott could theoretically fill. Both DRS and OAA liked his glovework better on that side of the bag, making it a sensible approach for the club.

While any of the four shortstops would be logical for this plan, Turner would certainly be an exciting fit. In his time in the big leagues so far, he’s proven himself to be one of the best all-around players in the game, succeeding in just about every aspect. In 849 career games, he’s hit 124 home runs and stolen 230 bases. His career batting line is .302/.355/.487, leading to a wRC+ of 124. UZR doesn’t like his work at shortstop, but both DRS and OAA have him above average for his career. For a Phillies team that’s full of sluggers like Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and Rhys Hoskins, a dynamic player like Turner, who turns 30 in June, would provide an exciting new element.

Of course, given his elite skills, he will have to paid at a high level. MLBTR predicted a contract of $268MM over eight years, an average annual value of $33.5MM. The Phillies currently have about $179MM committed to 2023, per Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax number of $191MM. Last year’s Opening Day payroll was $229MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, meaning they still have plenty of room to work with if they plan on spending at a comparable level this year. They would likely want to keep some powder dry for addressing other needs, such as their pitching staff, but it’s easy to see how they could fit a Turner-sized contract in here. Even adding about $30MM or so to that CBT number doesn’t get them over the lowest threshold for 2023, which will be $233MM. Plus, given their World Series run in 2022, they likely banked some extra revenues that could potentially lead to a bigger budget in 2023.

Turner received and rejected a qualifying offer from the Dodgers, meaning any team that signs him will have to pay a cost beyond just the money. Since the Phillies paid the luxury tax in 2022, they would have to forfeit their second-highest and fifth-highest picks in the next draft, in addition to seeing their international bonus pool dropped by $1MM. If Turner does indeed sign with someone other than the Dodgers, they would receive an extra pick after the fourth round, a diminished return because they also paid the luxury tax this year.

Of course, the Phillies won’t be alone in any pursuit of Turner. Morosi mentions that the Giants are involved, but adds that they will likely want to see how the Aaron Judge situation plays out before pivoting to a shortstop pursuit. Turner’s also been connected in rumors to the Cubs and Mariners, while there are other teams that would make speculative sense. If one of those clubs would eventually edge out the Phillies and acquire Turner, they could pivot to the other big names, having already been connected to Bogaerts.

Latest On Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts

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Shortstop Carlos Correa is one of the top free agent available and he is unsurprisingly drawing plenty of interest. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that eight teams are interested in his services, but the Twins are expected to “go hard” in their attempts to retain him.

Heyman doesn’t mention any teams by name other than the Twins, who are already known to be making a concerted effort to keep Correa in Minnesota. It was reported earlier this week that they have made multiple offers to him, with varying lengths between six and ten years, presumably with higher salaries on the shorter deals and lower salaries on the longer deals. In addition to the Twins, Correa has already been publicly linked in some way to the Giants, Dodgers and Cubs. Since Heyman says eight teams are involved, it appears there are four “mystery teams” at the table.

As to who those mystery teams are, we can only guess, though there would be some logical fits. Mariners’ president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has said the club is planning to pursue shortstops to play second base in deference to J.P. Crawford. The Phillies are known to be looking for a shortstop this winter. The Braves will need to replace Dansby Swanson if they can’t re-sign him but they might not have the financial ability to go after Correa. The Orioles have been speculated as a fit given that general manager Mike Elias was working for the Astros when Correa was drafted and developed, though they don’t have a track record that would suggest they’d give out the type of contract it would require to land him.

One surprising team that could be in the mix is the Padres. Heyman doesn’t directly connect the club to Correa but he does say they are considering the free agent shortstops. The Padres have been extremely aggressive in recent years and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller shouldn’t really be counted out on anyone, but it’s still unexpected to see the club connected to this market. The Friars got by without Fernando Tatis Jr. in 2022, who missed the first half of the season due to a wrist injury and the second half due to a suspension for a positive test for performance-enhancing drugs.

In his absence, Ha-Seong Kim stepped up and had an excellent season. He hit .251/.325/.383 for a wRC+ of 105 while stealing 12 bases and providing excellent defense. All of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average gave him positive grades, allowing him to produce 3.7 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. With Tatis set to return in 2023 once he serves the final 20 games of his suspension, it would seem the position is already crowded enough as it is. However, Heyman’s report indicates the club is open to the idea of moving Tatis to the outfield, something he’s dabbled with in the past, while bumping Kim into a utility role.

It had been previously reported that the club was considering an alignment of Kim at short, Tatis at second and Jake Cronenworth at first. It seems that this new plan would be somewhat similar but with Tatis going to the outfield, perhaps replacing Jurickson Profar, who is now a free agent, in left. Regardless of how it would eventually play out, Heyman lists Xander Bogaerts as their preferred option for this plan. Marino Pepén also connects the Padres to Bogaerts, though he says they are behind the Phillies and the Red Sox in the bidding.

Payroll might be a factor for the Friars, as Roster Resource currently pegs their payroll at $210MM and their competitive balance tax number at $230MM, just under the first CBT threshold of $233MM. The club has nudged over the CBT line in the past two years, but signing a marquee shortstop would surely mean blowing past the first threshold and flirting with the second, which is $253MM. As a third-time payor, the Padres are already facing a 50% tax on all spending over the first the first threshold plus a 12% surcharge on spending over the second. That means every dollar they go over $253MM would be taxed at a 62% rate. The club has continually surprised onlookers with their aggression in recent seasons, meaning it shouldn’t be completely ruled out. But it would be quite a noteworthy escalation, especially with the club connected to other big free agents like José Abreu and Kodai Senga.

As for the Giants, who have been connected to the free agent shortstops for some time, they will have to answer the Brandon Crawford question if they succeed in signing a new shortstop. He’s been with the club since being drafted back in 2008 and has been a mainstay at shortstop for them since 2011. He turns 36 in January, has one year remaining on his extension and is coming off a down year in 2022. He made multiple trips to the injured list and posted a batting line of .231/.308/.344, wRC+ of 87. DRS and UZR were down on his work in the field, but he did earn 7 OAA.

As to how the club would handle a new shortstop with Crawford on the roster, it seems that it would depend who the shortstop is. According to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, Crawford would move to third base if they signed Correa, but Trea Turner or Dansby Swanson would be installed at second base. That’s likely a reflection of the fact that Turner and Swanson have lesser throwing arms than the other two. According to the Statcast arm strength leaderboard among shortstops, Swanson comes 48th out of 50 while Turner is 26th. Crawford is a bit higher at 19 while Correa is at #6. Correa’s excellent arm strength arguably makes him a fit for third base, but his overall defense is superior to Crawford’s at this stage of their careers. Regardless of how sensible the arguments may be, it’s at least a bit surprising that the Giants are apparently willing to supplant Crawford at shortstop under the right conditions.

Braves Unlikely To Pursue Big Name Shortstops If Swanson Signs Elsewhere

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The Braves have had more success in extending young, core players than any team in recent memory, but for a second straight offseason they’re facing the potential departure of a longtime regular who’s helped to anchor the infield. Dansby Swanson, like Freddie Freeman before him, reached the open market without signing an extension, has rejected a qualifying offer and is now free to field interest from the game’s other 29 teams.

Atlanta reportedly offered Swanson an extension in the neighborhood of $100MM at some point over the course of the season, but the widespread expectation is for him to outpace that guarantee by a comfortable margin. (MLBTR predicted a seven-year, $154MM contract on last week’s Top 50 free agent list.) One of the biggest questions on the minds of Braves fans is just what the team will do at shortstop. Can Swanson be retained? And, if not, where does the team turn? The market offers a trio of high-end alternatives in the form of Trea Turner, Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts.

As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports, however, it’s unlikely that the Braves will make a legitimate play to sign any of the big free-agent shortstops other than Swanson. President of baseball ops Alex Anthopoulos went out of his way to mention Vaughn Grissom and Orlando Arcia as in-house alternatives at last week’s GM Meetings, and Rosenthal adds that the Braves are generally reluctant to add a major salary that “takes up too high a percentage of their payroll” — including oft-speculated fit Jacob deGrom.

Braves fans were understandably heartened by CEO Terry McGuirk’s comments about Atlanta growing to have one of the game’s five largest payrolls, but what McGuirk didn’t stress was just how close the Braves already are to reaching that territory before making a single addition. Last month at MLBTR, I pointed out that for the Braves to make even one high-priced acquisition, they’d need to exceed the luxury-tax threshold; making a pair of big-name additions — or signing one premier free agent and, say, extending Max Fried — could shatter the threshold and send the team barreling into at least the second tier of luxury penalization.

As things currently stand, Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects the Braves to be less than $5MM away from tier one of the luxury tax . They’d be a first-time luxury payor, so the penalty on the first $20MM by which they cross that threshold would “only” be 20%. The penalty on the next $20MM would jump to a 32% tax.

We’ll get back to the shortstop quandary, but it’s worth digressing and taking a deeper look at just what the luxury tax realities might look like for the Braves.

To put this into more specific context, we can use deGrom as an example. Many believe that the four-time All-Star and two-time Cy Young winner could secure an average annual value of $40MM or more this winter. A $40MM AAV on deGrom would push the Braves’ luxury-tax bill up into the $268MM range — an overage of roughly $35MM. The 20% tax on that first $20MM would come out to $4MM, and the 32% tax they’d be paying on the next $15MM would be another $4.8MM. So to sign deGrom for a $40MM AAV, the Braves would effectively need to be willing to pay $48.8MM in total — at least for the upcoming season. With Justin Verlander seeking a deal comparable to that of Max Scherzer, this can all be applied to him as well.

It’s a similar, but not quite so extreme case with Swanson. Using the $22MM AAV on MLBTR’s predicted contract as an example, Swanson would push the Braves a bit more than $17MM over the luxury tax on his own. That’d make our predicted $22MM AAV more akin to paying $25.4MM this season. And, of course, signing Swanson at that rate would mean that any subsequent salary additions of note would then push the Braves into the second tier of penalization, subjecting them to the same 32% rate mentioned in the deGrom example.

The other wrinkle is that any such signing would further cause the team’s luxury bill to balloon in future seasons. The Braves already have about $135MM of luxury obligations on their 2024 payroll, two years down the road, and that doesn’t include potential club option pickups for veterans like Charlie Morton, Kirby Yates and Collin McHugh — nor does it include arbitration salaries for Fried, A.J. Minter and Kyle Wright. Paying the luxury tax for consecutive seasons would cause those rates of penalization also increase (30% in tier one, 42% in tier two, etc.).

Certainly, there are ways for the Braves to lower their current luxury tab and provide further breathing room, though the path to doing so is not an easy one. There’s little hope of finding a team willing to cover even a small portion of the $36MM still owed to Marcell Ozuna through 2024. Atlanta would probably welcome the opportunity to shed the $9MM owed to Eddie Rosario in 2023, but that’s also far easier said than done after he hit .212/.259/.328 in the first season of a two-year, $18MM contract. One recent source of Twitter speculation among fans — a possible trade of Ronald Acuna Jr. — is not something the Braves are considering, per Rosenthal.

Lengthy digression aside, let’s get back to the shortstop question. If, as Rosenthal suggests, the team is likely to be “out of the picture” for any of Correa, Turner or Bogaerts in the event of a Swanson departure, what might that mean for their 2023 outlook at shortstop?

Grissom and Arcia are in-house candidates, as alluded to by Anthopoulos, but Grissom’s bat wilted after a torrid start to his rookie season in 2022. He still finished with a terrific .291/.353/.440 batting line in 156 plate appearances, but Grissom slashed .420/.463/.660 in his first 54 plate appearances and just .220/.294/.319 over his final 102 trips to the plate. He also skipped Triple-A entirely on his way to the Majors, and scouting opinions on his long-term outlook at shortstop vary. Arcia, once one of the game’s top-ranked prospects, was a roughly league-average hitter in a part-time role last year but carries a .233/.288/.356 slash (70 wRC+) over the past five years.

The free-agent market has some modest stopgaps who could help ease Grissom into the full-time role at shortstop. Elvis Andrus was released by the A’s over the summer, but that was more about preventing his 2023 vesting option from kicking in than about his play. He had a strong finish after signing with the White Sox and hit a combined .249/.303/.404 with 17 homers and 18 steals between the two clubs. Jose Iglesias keeps hitting for average and rarely striking out — .291/.325/.408, 13.1% strikeout rate since 2019 — but defensive metrics have soured on the soon-to-be 33-year-old over the past two seasons. Old friend Andrelton Simmons is a free agent, too, but he’s batted just .216/.277/.261 in 536 plate appearances since Opening Day 2021.

None of those free-agent options are going to inspire Braves fans much — save for the possible nostalgia of a Simmons reunion — but they highlight the fact that it’s a thin crop beyond the “Big Four.” The trade market, then, could be a more palatable approach for Anthopoulos to explore. Cleveland’s Amed Rosario is a clear trade candidate with just a year to go before free agency and a mounting (by the Guardians’ standards) price tag. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $9MM next year, and a low-payroll Guardians club that’s deep in MLB-ready middle infield prospects could look to cash in on the 27-year-old, as I recently explored at greater length.

The Yankees figure to be open to moving on from Isiah Kiner-Falefa now that Oswald Peraza is ready for a look in the Majors. The Reds would likely be open to dealing Kyle Farmer, with whom Anthopoulos is surely familiar dating back to his Dodgers days. Arizona’s Nick Ahmed and St. Louis’ Paul DeJong are veteran alternatives who could be had for pennies on the dollar, as the D-backs and Cardinals would surely welcome the chance to just shed some of the respective $10MM and $11MM remaining on their contracts. Both are buy-low options, at best, coming off poor showings in recent seasons. Any of Kevin Newman (Pirates), Nicky Lopez (Royals) or the oft-injured Adalberto Mondesi (Royals) could likely be had in a deal, but each has some obvious red flags.

To be clear, there’s no indication that the Braves plan to simply stand pat this winter. A reunion with Swanson remains eminently plausible, even if previous extension attempts with his representatives — the same agents who represent Freeman, for what it’s worth — have yet to bear fruit. It’d push the Braves into luxury territory for the first time in franchise history, but based on McGuirk’s comments about a potential top-five payroll club, that’s something on which the front office will have a green light, at least with regard to Swanson.

What does seems far less likely is a lavish spending spree that sees the Braves make multiple marquee splashes on the free-agent market. If Swanson does sign elsewhere, it’s the bulk of the Braves’ heavy lifting may very well come via the trade market and the middle tiers of the free-agent market.

12 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 14 players who received qualifying offers have rejected those one-year, $19.65MM contracts in favor of testing the open market, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Martin Perez and Joc Pederson are the only two who accepted a QO. Each of Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Anderson have rejected the deal. Anderson is already in agreement on a three-year contract with the Angels.

None of the news is all that surprising, aside from perhaps Anderson’s early multi-year strike with the Halos. Perez and Pederson were two of the three most likely candidates to take the QO. That the Giants tagged Pederson at all was a move few saw coming, and most believed he’d indeed take the QO once it was put forth.

None of Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson, deGrom, Rodon, Nimmo, Bassitt or Contreras likely gave much thought to the possibility. Eovaldi and Rizzo were more borderline candidates, but the latter quickly returns to the Yankees on a multi-year deal that’ll pay him around the QO rate over two guaranteed seasons. Eovaldi has yet to sign, but he’ll presumably continue to search for a longer-term contract after taking advantage of the five days to scour the market.

The clubs that saw a free agent decline a qualifying offer now stand to receive draft compensation if that player signs elsewhere. The value of the compensatory pick depends on a team’s status as a revenue sharing recipient and/or whether they paid the luxury tax in 2022. That’s also true of the draft choices and potentially international signing bonus space a team would have to forfeit to sign a qualified free agent from another team.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down the forfeiture each team would have to surrender to sign a qualified free agent earlier this month. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk looked at the compensation each club would receive if one of these players signed elsewhere.

14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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14 players received qualifying offers this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The list is as follows:

As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer a team can make to impending free agents. Players who have previously received a QO in their careers and/or didn’t spend the entire preceding season with one team cannot receive a qualifying offer. The value of the offer is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in MLB. For the 2022-23 offseason, it is set at $19.65MM.

If a player accepts the QO, he returns to his current team for next season on that salary. If he declines, the team would receive compensation if he were to sign elsewhere. The specific compensation depends on the team’s status as both a luxury tax payor and whether they receive revenue sharing payments. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a look at the compensation each team would receive for losing a qualified free agent last week.

Signing a player who refuses a QO from another team requires the signing team to forfeit draft picks and/or international signing bonus space. As with compensation for losing qualified free agents, the specific nature of the forfeiture is dependent on revenue sharing status and the competitive balance tax.

[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]

The majority of players who receive qualifying offers decline them each offseason. Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, deGrom, Swanson, Rodón, Nimmo, Contreras and Bassitt were always virtual locks to receive a QO. They’ll assuredly turn them down and sign multi-year contracts, either with their incumbent teams or other clubs. Rejecting a qualifying offer, to be clear, does not affect a player’s ability to continue negotiating with his previous team.

Rizzo, Anderson and Pérez were all more borderline QO candidates, although reports in recent days had suggested each was likely to receive the offer. There’s a case for all three players in that group to accept, although their representatives will have five days to gauge the market before making that decision. Pérez has reportedly received a two-year offer from Texas. The sides have long expressed mutual interest in agreement, but they’ve yet to come to terms on a longer deal.

The final two qualified free agents come as more surprising developments. Eovaldi always looked like a borderline QO candidate. He recently wrapped up a four-year, $68MM contract with the Red Sox. The right-hander was generally effective over the life of that deal, but his 2022 campaign was more of a mixed bag. Shoulder and back injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings. His 3.87 ERA over that stretch was right in line with his 2020-21 marks, but his strikeout rate dropped a few points to a league average 22.4%. Eovaldi’s fastball also dipped slightly from siting just under 97 MPH down to 95.7 MPH, but that’s still plenty impressive velocity. Paired with his elite strike-throwing ability and the Red Sox’s need for rotation help, they’d be content to bring the 32-year-old back for just under $20MM if he accepted the QO.

The most surprising qualifying offer recipient, however, is Pederson. San Francisco signed the outfielder to a one-year, $6MM deal last winter after an up-and-down 2021 campaign with the Cubs and Braves. The left-handed slugger responded with an excellent .274/.353/.521 showing, connecting on 23 home runs in 433 plate appearances. Pederson also posted elite batted ball marks, including a 93.2 MPH average exit velocity that’s around five MPH above league average. He also made hard contact (a batted ball hit 95 MPH or harder) on a career-best 52.1% of his balls in play.

That figured to give 30-year-old a strong shot at a multi-year offer, although it’s still surprising to see the Giants offer him nearly $20MM to return. Pederson played left field in Oracle Park, but he rated as 12 runs below average over 685 innings in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved. He’s consistently posted subpar defensive marks and is limited to the corner outfield or designated hitter. The Giants also shielded him against southpaws, limping him to 57 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.

Some notable players who were eligible for a qualifying offer but did not receive one include Jameson Taillon, Mitch Haniger, Taijuan Walker, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha. That group will all hit the open market unencumbered by draft pick compensation, which should be a boost to their free agent stocks.

Of the crop of QO recipients, Pederson looks likeliest to accept, although it’s possible that anyone in the group turns the offer down if their reps find interest over multi-year pacts. Players have until the evening of November 15 to determine whether to accept or turn down the QO.

Zaidi: Giants In Contact With Free Agent Shortstops, Plan To Issue QO To Carlos Rodon

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The Giants are widely expected to be one of the league’s most active teams this offseason, with the front office reloading after an underwhelming 2022 season. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi met with reporters (including John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle) this evening and confirmed the team could play near the top of the market.

Asked about the club’s free agent priorities, Zaidi told the media “from a financial standpoint, there would be nobody that would be out of our capability.” He went on to note they’ve already had discussions with representatives for free agent shortstops who’ve expressed a willingness to move to second base in deference to Brandon Crawford (via Jon Morosi of MLB.com). Teams technically aren’t allowed to negotiate contract terms with free agents from other teams until tomorrow evening, but they can discuss more general concepts like roster fit during the exclusive negotiation period.

Zaidi didn’t specify the players involved, although it’s not hard to infer he’s speaking about the top shortstops on the market. Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson are going to be priority targets for a number of the game’s biggest-spending teams. It’s notable that Zaidi spoke of potentially moving an external pickup to the other side of the bag while keeping Crawford at shortstop, although it’s not clear if that’s an absolute requirement for any player under consideration. Scott Boras, who represents both Correa and Bogaerts, told reporters he hasn’t heard from teams looking to push either player off the position (link via Bob Nightengale of USA Today).

While adding a top shortstop is plausible for a San Francisco club looking to get younger and more athletic this winter, Zaidi and his group are sure to cast a wide net. The mention of the financial wherewithal to pursue any player available will lead to further speculation about the market’s top free agent. The Giants are sure to be linked to Aaron Judge throughout the winter, as they’re indeed among the clubs most well-positioned for that kind of expenditure. San Francisco has roughly $72.5MM in guaranteed commitments on the books, pending a call on Evan Longoria’s option. Even with a fairly heavy arbitration class, the Giants have plenty of room before approaching this year’s $155MM Opening Day mark, and they’re nowhere near the franchise-record heights that pushed $200MM.

Of course, San Francisco is facing a few potential key departures. Ace Carlos Rodón opted out of the second year of his deal and is back on the open market. Zaidi confirmed the club’s obvious decision to tag him with a $19.65MM qualifying offer (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area), which Rodón is a lock to reject in pursuit of a deal north of nine figures. That’d entitle the Giants to a compensatory draft choice between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round (roughly 75th overall) in next year’s draft if the star southpaw departs.

San Francisco also sees corner outfielder Joc Pederson hit the open market, and while he certainly won’t receive a QO, Zaidi reiterated the team would like to keep him around (Shea link). The lefty-hitting outfielder posted a .274/.353/.521 line after signing a $6MM guarantee last offseason, and the club has discussed a potential extension as far back as September. Pederson is sure to beat $6MM this time around and looks to have a good shot at a multi-year contract after his quality platform year.

Bloom: Bogaerts Remains Red Sox’s Preferred Option At Shortstop

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The Red Sox and star shortstop Xander Bogaerts didn’t agree on a contract extension before the start of the offseason. The four-time All-Star officially opted out of the final three years on his deal with Boston this morning, sending him to the open market for the first time in his career. The Sox still have exclusive negotiating rights with Bogaerts through Thursday, but there’s little question at this point his representatives at the Boras Corporation will soon be in contact with other teams.

Speaking with reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe) this evening, Boston chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom reiterated that retaining Bogaerts would be the Sox’s ideal choice for addressing shortstop. “We want him here. He makes us better,” Bloom said. “We respect his right to exercise [the opt-out] and to explore the market. We want him back and we will stay engaged with him.”

Boston’s baseball operations leader acknowledged the presence of a few other star free agent shortstops — namely Carlos Correa, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. While Bloom suggested the team would explore the market for potential alternatives, he didn’t mince words when expressing the front office’s overall preference. “He’s our first choice. That’s not going to change,” he told reporters. “Part of our jobs is to explore every option to field a contending team next year and put together a really good group. We need to explore every possible way to do that, but Bogey’s our first choice.”

Bloom indicated he believes either Trevor Story or Enrique Hernández would be capable of playing shortstop if necessary but made clear the team would prefer to keep them at other positions to keep Bogaerts around. Story moved to second base this past season. While he’d played his whole career at shortstop with the Rockies prior to this year, Story has spoken about his desire to stick at the keystone if it means the Red Sox re-sign their longtime shortstop. That’d presumably keep Hernández in center field primarily, with the lackluster free agent market at that position seemingly playing a role in Boston’s decision to keep the utilityman around with a $10MM contract extension on Labor Day.

Of course, this is far from the first time Sox’s brass has gone on record about their affinity for Bogaerts. Immediately after the season, Bloom called re-signing the four-time Silver Slugger winner before free agency the team’s top priority. That obviously didn’t happen, and Speier writes that while the sides did have some discussions after the season wrapped up, it became clear fairly early on they wouldn’t get a deal done before the opt-out date.

Boston is sure to kick off the offseason by tagging Bogaerts with a qualifying offer. They’d receive only minimal compensation if he were to sign elsewhere, however. Because the Red Sox exceeded the base luxury tax threshold this past season, they’d add only an extra draft choice after the fourth round. Conversely, signing a player like Turner or Swanson who rejects a qualifying offer from another team — Correa is ineligible to receive a QO because he’s previously received one in his career — would lead Boston to forfeit both their second and fifth-highest picks in next year’s draft and $1MM in international signing bonus space. Certainly, the front office will weigh their long-term projections of each of the top free agents more heavily than the draft choices in deciding how to proceed, but they’d pay a heavier draft penalty for adding either Swanson or Turner than they would for retaining Bogaerts (and thus forfeiting the compensatory pick).

Bogaerts heads into his age-31 season coming off a .307/.377/.456 mark through 631 plate appearances. His power production dipped relative to his best seasons, but he hit above .285 with an on-base percentage at .360 or better for the fifth straight year. He also earned slightly above-average marks from public defensive metrics, an important step towards quieting some concerns he’ll have to move off shortstop in the relatively near future.

Latest On Extension Talks Between Braves, Dansby Swanson

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There’s roughly a week until impending free agents are permitted to speak with other teams. Clubs have an exclusive negotiating window with their free agents for five days after the World Series wraps up.

An extension for any notable free agent this close to the offseason would register as a major surprise, but teams figure to keep in contact with their top players. The Braves and All-Star shortstop Dansby Swanson have talked potential contracts since at least mid-August. Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote last month the sides had exchanged formal proposals, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post now sheds a bit more light on discussions. According to Heyman, the Braves made an offer in the $100MM range at some point during the season.

Precisely when the Braves made the proposal is unknown, but it’s now clear Swanson is in strong position to beat roughly $100MM on his next deal. He’s headed to free agency on the heels of a career year. The former first overall pick has always been a strong defensive shortstop, but he was arguably the game’s top defensive infielder in 2022. That earned him his first career Gold Glove a few months after his first trip to the Midsummer Classic. Swanson also had one of his top offensive showings, connecting on 25 home runs and posting a .277/.329/.447 line while playing in every one of Atlanta’s games.

Swanson’s production tailed off a bit in the second half, but his overall line checked in 16 points above league average by measure of wRC+. That’s right in line with the platform-year showing for Javier Báez and better than that of Trevor Story, each of whom were free agents in a loaded shortstop class last offseason. Both Báez and Story were going into their age-29 seasons, as Swanson is now. They each landed $140MM guarantees on the open market, and both players locked in opt-out clauses into their deals (although the Red Sox can override Story’s opt-out by triggering a club option for a 7th season). Swanson’s representatives at Excel Sports Management are surely well-aware of those recent precedents, and it stands to reason they could look to beat the $140MM mark.

Each of Swanson and Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has gone on record about a mutual desire to keep the shortstop in Atlanta. Swanson is a Georgia native who’s never played for another team at the big league level, and it stands to reason he’d be happy to stick around. Whether he’d take some kind of discount to do so isn’t known, although that he apparently turned down an offer in the realm of nine figures suggests he’s not completely averse to testing the market.

The Braves are a year removed from a high-profile stalemate with former franchise icon Freddie Freeman. Those talks reportedly hit a stumbling block over the Braves’ reluctance to go six guaranteed years, and Freeman eventually signed with the Dodgers after Atlanta pivoted to land and extend Matt Olson. Freeman was also an Excel Sports Management client at the time, but Swanson has consistently maintained that back-and-forth would have no bearing on his relationship with the Braves or his agency.

Obviously, that Swanson declined an extension offer isn’t a guarantee he’ll depart. Heyman reports that proposal was made at some point during the season, and Anthopoulos confirmed after their season wrapped up the team still had interest in a long-term deal. It stands to reason they’ve remained in contact and will continue to do so throughout the offseason. The Braves are sure to extend Swanson a qualifying offer next week, which he’ll reject in search of a much longer and loftier commitment.

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