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Dansby Swanson

Latest On Dansby Swanson’s Market

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Dansby Swanson is the best remaining free agent, the only of the top four shortstops who has yet to agree to terms. Teams like the Cubs, Twins, Dodgers, Red Sox and incumbent Braves have all been tied to him, although there’s no indication he’s especially close to a deal.

Minnesota, Boston and the Dodgers each lost a star shortstop of their own to free agency, making them all natural fits to look to Swanson as a possible replacement. However, various reports have cast some doubt on each of those possible landing spots. Both Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic and Jon Heyman of the New York Post have written recently that Los Angeles is presently more on the periphery of the Swanson market. Rosenthal and Heyman each suggest L.A. might only jump into the mix if Swanson’s asking price dips into a range they find especially palatable.

That at least partially stems from luxury tax considerations, with various reports suggesting the Dodgers are eyeing the possibility of dipping below next year’s $233MM base threshold. The Dodgers have paid the tax in each of the last two seasons, setting them up for heightened penalties as repeat payors. A team can reset their payor status by dipping below the threshold for one year, and doing so next season may free L.A. up to aggressively target free agency during the 2023-24 offseason. Los Angeles is presently projected around $32MM shy of the tax marker by Roster Resource, leaving room to add Swanson without going past the threshold. However, there’s apparently some organizational concern they could find themselves on the hook for money owed to Trevor Bauer if the pitcher’s two-year suspension is overturned or reduced on appeal, which is expected to be heard in the next month.

Heyman wrote yesterday the Red Sox are “seriously considering” Swanson after watching Xander Bogaerts head to San Diego. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom recently told the media the club was looking to add players at up-the-middle positions, but the presence of Trevor Story means they’re not locked into a shortstop pursuit. Boston reportedly offered Bogaerts, whom they’d called their top offseason priority, $162MM over six years before he landed in San Diego. Pivoting with a similar or higher proposal to Swanson would raise some eyebrows, and Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic wrote yesterday it seems unlikely Boston would make such an investment.

The Twins had been in contact with Swanson even before Carlos Correa agreed to terms with the Giants, putting themselves into the mix for a fallback option. Both Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (Twitter link) and Dan Hayes of the Athletic (on Twitter) suggest the Twins remain involved, but both reporters characterize it as more of a longshot for Swanson to actually land in Minneapolis. The Twins do still have a fair bit of payroll flexibility, even after this afternoon’s $11MM agreement with Joey Gallo.

Regardless, Swanson’s sure to find a significant deal from some team this winter. The next-best remaining free agent shortstop is Elvis Andrus, while the trade market doesn’t have many obvious solutions. Swanson is coming off an All-Star campaign, one in which he connected on 25 home runs with a .277/.329/.447 line while appearing in all 162 games for the Braves. He also secured his first career Gold Glove after rating as 15 runs above average defensively, per Statcast. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a seven-year, $154MM contract.

Identifying The Best Landing Spots For Dansby Swanson

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Dansby Swanson is the last unsigned position player from MLBTR’s top ten free agents. He’ll be the final of the four top-tier shortstops to come off the board, and his destination will surely be influenced by how the market has already played out.

The Phillies and Giants entered the offseason widely regarded as potential landing spots for the top shortstops, particularly if San Francisco were to wind up missing on Aaron Judge. Few would’ve foreseen the Padres jumping into that mix for Xander Bogaerts, with San Diego taking one of the “big four” off the board and perhaps opening another landing spot for Swanson.

Let’s take a look at the most plausible remaining landing spots.

Best Fits

Cubs

The Cubs met with all four top shortstops at the outset of the offseason, but there’s no indication they’ve wanted to pay the enormous asking prices on any of the other three. Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago wrote last night that discussions with Carlos Correa were limited to general outlines of possible financial parameters, with no formal offer being put on the table. Swanson figures to land the lowest deal of the group, perhaps making him a more palatable target for Chicago. Even if Swanson won’t push or exceed $300MM as Correa, Trea Turner and Bogaerts had, he’s likely to surpass $150MM. This would require the largest investment the Cubs have made since signing Jason Heyward seven years ago.

Is Chicago ownership willing to go to that level? They should have the payroll space to do so, as they’re around $157MM in projected 2023 commitments. That’s above where they’ve sat the last two seasons but nowhere near the $200MM+ franchise-record heights from a few years ago. The Cubs are coming off a second consecutive well below-average season, but they’ve continued to maintain they’re not in a rebuild. It’s hard to imagine acquisitions of Jameson Taillon and Cody Bellinger alone getting a 74-win team back to postseason contention, particularly since they also lost Willson Contreras to free agency. Even adding Swanson to the mix likely leaves them behind the Cardinals and Brewers, but he’s only entering his age-29 season and should still be productive in 2024 and beyond — when the Cubs have a more realistic path to competing. The presence of Nico Hoerner means the Cubs don’t need a shortstop. Second base looks as if it’ll be manned by Nick Madrigal or Christopher Morel, though, and adding Swanson and kicking Hoerner to the other side of the bag would solidify the middle infield.

Twins

The Twins missed on Correa, whose stay in Minneapolis lasted only one year. Their reported ten-year, $285MM bid came up well shy of the 13-year, $350MM contract he eventually received from the Giants. Minnesota finished 78-84 even with Correa, and while better health from their pitching staff should help in 2023, they’re behind the Guardians and White Sox in the AL Central as presently constructed. Pivoting to Swanson is a natural fallback, and Minnesota had already been in touch with his representatives even before officially losing out on Correa.

Minnesota has ample payroll room, as illustrated by their ultimately unsuccessful proposal to Correa. They’re not likely to present Swanson with anywhere near the same offer, but ownership and the front office could allocate much of their remaining space to plugging the shortstop vacancy. The Twins acquired Kyle Farmer from the Reds last month. He’s probably better suited for a utility role on a contender but presently projects as the starting shortstop. Former first overall pick Royce Lewis could factor in midseason. He won’t be ready for Opening Day after tearing the ACL in his right knee for the second time last June. It’s anyone’s guess how much of his athleticism and explosiveness he’ll retain after a second straight massive injury. Even if Lewis comes back strong yet again, he could bounce around the diamond in a multi-positional role if Minnesota were to add Swanson.

Braves

The Braves have publicly maintained they’d like to keep Swanson, who has been their everyday shortstop for the past six seasons. There’s certainly a fit on the roster. Atlanta looks as if they’d roll with Orlando Arcia and eventually top prospect Vaughn Grissom if Swanson walks. The Braves have had success trusting young players like Grissom in recent years, but he’s not without risk. Prospect evaluators have raised concerns about his defense, and he’s played all of 63 games above High-A. In a division with the Mets and Phillies, the Braves are facing sharp competition to put their best foot forward.

As has been the issue for months, the question about Atlanta is financial. They’re already at franchise-record heights for their player payroll, and their early offseason work has focused on the trade market. The Braves brought in Sean Murphy and Joe Jiménez, leveraging young talent but not taking on any notable salaries. Mark Bowman of MLB.com reported last week the Braves and Swanson had had minimal contact since the offseason began, writing their most recent offer would’ve come with an annual salary in the $16-17MM range over six or seven years. That looks extremely light, particularly given the strength of the rest of the shortstop market. The Braves could circle back, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweeted yesterday that Swanson — a Georgia native — would still like to return to Atlanta. At least as of last week, there was a huge gap to bridge in negotiations, though.

Viable But Longer Shots

Dodgers

The Dodgers have been loosely tied to Swanson this offseason after seemingly not showing significant interest in the other top shortstops. It’s been a relatively quiet offseason for L.A., perhaps in part due to a hope of resetting their luxury tax status by dipping below next year’s $233MM base threshold. That’s not clearly a mandate, but team officials have signaled a desire to integrate some of their highly-touted position player prospects into the mix. The Dodgers presently project for a $201MM competitive balance tax number, so they could squeeze Swanson in while staying below the line as things stand. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald wrote this week, however, they won’t have official clarity on their tax number until the Trevor Bauer suspension is litigated. Gavin Lux is on hand as a potential shortstop option, with Chris Taylor possibly sliding to second base in that scenario.

Red Sox

Like the Dodgers and Twins, the Red Sox lost their star shortstop in free agency. They’re now seeking up-the-middle help and a right-handed bat to balance the lineup. Swanson would knock off those goals in one swoop, and Boston has nearly $40MM in payroll room before hitting the base tax threshold. Like the Dodgers, they’ve been loosely tied to Swanson this offseason. It’d still come as a surprise if they pivot towards a full-fledged pursuit of Swanson after watching Bogaerts depart. They reportedly put forth a six-year, $162MM offer to their incumbent star shortstop. While they may have been willing to go a bit above that, they never seemed interested in matching the $280MM figure laid out by San Diego. That’s understandable, although Swanson’s contract could well beat what Boston had offered Bogaerts. Would the Red Sox make a stronger offer to Swanson than they had to a homegrown star whom they’d repeatedly called their top offseason priority?

Seemingly Unlikely

  • Angels: The Halos have an uncertain middle infield mix and could look outside the organization to pair with David Fletcher, Luis Rengifo and perhaps Gio Urshela in that group. They’ve been fairly active early, taking on around $40MM in 2023 salary to add Urhsela, Hunter Renfroe, Tyler Anderson and Carlos Estévez. None of it has come with a longer commitment than the three years they guaranteed Anderson, though. Does owner Arte Moreno want to add a six-plus year deal to the books when he’s hoping to sell the franchise by Opening Day?
  • Cardinals: The Cardinals were tied to Swanson earlier in the offseason. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggested that was likelier to happen only if the Cards landed the catcher they considered a top priority via trade. Instead, they signed the top free agent available, Contreras, for $87.5MM over five seasons. A franchise-record contract for Swanson on top of that feels uncharacteristic for an organization that usually does its hefty lifting via trade.
  • Diamondbacks: The D-Backs could use a shortstop and were loosely linked to Bogaerts earlier in the offseason. They’ve occasionally come out of nowhere to make a major free agent investment (see: Zack Greinke), but they haven’t topped $100MM in Opening Day payroll in either of the last two years. Bringing back Swanson, whom the previous front office initially drafted with the first overall pick in 2015, would make a lot of sense from a roster perspective, but the money probably isn’t lining up.
  • Giants: San Francisco could probably accommodate another notable signing, as they’re presently projected around $27MM below the base luxury tax threshold. They’d likely be able to fit Swanson in while avoiding tax payments, but it feels unlikely after they nabbed Correa. Brandon Crawford and Wilmer Flores give them other options at second and third base. First base, center field and the bullpen all look like greater areas of need.
  • Mariners: At the start of the offseason, the Mariners expressed some willingness to pursue a shortstop with an eye towards kicking him over to second base in deference to J.P. Crawford. They subsequently traded for Kolten Wong instead, which looks as if it’ll rule them out.
  • Mets: The Mets warrant cursory mention on every top free agent at this point given owner Steve Cohen’s aggressiveness. They reportedly at least considered a run at Correa with an eye towards moving him to third base. Swanson isn’t that caliber of hitter, though, and kicking him over to third while displacing Eduardo Escobar, Luis Guillorme and top prospect Brett Baty seems like a stretch.
  • Orioles: The Orioles were reportedly poking around the shortstop market at the start of the offseason. They’ve not actually shown any signs they want to make a major investment this winter, though. With a number of top infield prospects at the MLB level or on the horizon (i.e. Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Joey Ortiz), a Swanson pursuit doesn’t seem to in the cards.
  • Padres: San Diego is in Mets territory of warranting a mention on every free agent given their boldness, but the infield is already overloaded after the Bogaerts deal.
  • Yankees: For a second straight offseason, the Yankees haven’t seemed much interested in exploring the top of a loaded shortstop class. They’ve maintained faith in prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe to eventually seize that mantle. If they’re going to make another big investment after re-signing Judge, it seems Carlos Rodón is the target.

Note: all salary projections courtesy of Roster Resource

Where does the MLBTR readership expect Swanson to wind up?

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Giants Have Been In Contact With Dansby Swanson

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The market for shortstop Dansby Swanson has begun to heat up, according to Russell Dorsey of Bally Sports. He lists the Dodgers, Giants, Twins, Cubs, Red Sox and Braves as teams with interest. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the Giants have been in touch with Swanson’s representatives, but that it doesn’t appear any decision is imminent.

The Twins, Cubs, Red Sox and Braves have all previously been connected to Swanson this offseason, though the mentions of the Dodgers and Giants are new. This offseason featured a group of shortstops known as the “big four,” with Trea Turner already signed with the Phillies and Xander Bogaerts with the Padres. That leaves Carlos Correa and Swanson as the two of that group left for all those shortstop-needy teams.

Though Correa and Swanson are connected in the sense that they are the two surefire everyday shortstops remaining, there’s a significant difference between the two. Both have strong reputations for their glovework, though Correa’s overall body of work at the plate is stronger. At the start of the season, MLBTR predicted a nine-year, $288MM contract for Correa but a seven-year, $154MM deal for Swanson.

Most teams would surely prefer Correa in a vacuum but the price might be an issue. Both Turner and Bogaerts got at least three years longer than projected and each secured a larger overall guarantee as well. With that context, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Correa and Swanson also end up getting deals larger than their projections.

The Giants were seen by many as the favorites for Correa after they made an offer in the $360MM range to Aaron Judge that he declined in order to return to the Yankees. However, it stands to reason that they would also reach out to Swanson and see if there’s a significant difference in the respective markets. Since the Judge non-signing, they’ve agreed to some smaller deals for Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling, bringing their 2023 payroll up to $164MM, per Roster Resource. It’s unclear how far they want to push spending this offseason, but they are still sitting on a competitive balance tax figure of $180MM, leaving them over $50MM of room before reaching the lowest luxury tax barrier of $233MM.

Giving Correa a salary in the $30MM range wouldn’t push them into the luxury tax on its own, but they do have other needs on the roster as well. They are reportedly still interested in retaining Carlos Rodón, who will also require a contract somewhere in the vicinity of $30MM on an annual basis. Adding both Rodón and Correa would start pushing them into luxury tax territory, whereas the dropdown to Swanson could lead to something closer to $20MM annually. If the CBT barrier is something they’re trying to avoid, then it’s possible the difference between a Correa and a Swanson deal could be significant for them.

For the Dodgers, they have lost their incumbent shortstop in Turner, who is now with the Phillies. The club is reportedly comfortable with moving Gavin Lux from second base to be their new shortstop, though it also makes sense for them to explore what else is available. However, they are apparently not pursuing Correa, given both his ties to the scandal-plagued 2017 Astros team that defeated the Dodgers in the World Series, as well as his high asking price. Perhaps Swanson is an attractive backup plan for the club, though they might also prefer to wait until they get clarity on the Trevor Bauer situation before making firm commitments. He is appealing his suspension and if he is successful in overturning it, the club’s CBT figure would jump from around $189MM to over $220MM. A decision is expected in the next month or so.

If that scenario were to come to pass, even a slightly more modest deal for Swanson would push them over the line into tax payor status. Since the club is reportedly considering dipping under the line to reset their status, that could be an issue. The CBT features escalating penalties for paying in consecutive seasons, meaning that the Dodgers could stay under the line in 2023 but go into 2024 as “first-time” payors.

Though he’s likely to secure a lesser contract than Correa, Swanson is no slouch. He hit 27 home runs in 2022 and produced an overall batting line of .277/.329/.447 for a wRC+ of 116. That was his first time being above-average at the plate over a full season, though it showed that he is capable of being an all-around contributor. He also stole 18 bases and posted excellent defensive marks, leading to 6.4 wins above replacement on the season, in the eyes of FanGraphs.

Braves, Swanson Have Reportedly Had Minimal Negotiations This Offseason

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Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson are the last of this offseason’s “big four” shortstops standing, and while many Braves fans may be holding out hope for a reunion with Swanson, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports that Swanson and the Braves “haven’t had any legit negotiations since the offseason began.” Atlanta’s most recent offer to Swanson was a six-year deal in the $16-17MM range annually, per Bowman, which aligns with last month’s reports that the Braves had offered Swanson a deal in the vicinity of $100MM.

An offer in that range always felt light, even before the recent explosion of megadeals at the top end of the free-agent market. Trevor Story and Javier Baez both landed six-year, $140MM deals last winter, and MLBTR predicted a $154MM guarantee for Swanson back on our Top 50 free agent rankings. With Trea Turner landing $300MM, Xander Bogaerts getting $280MM and most of the top free agents landing larger-than-expected guarantees this winter, Swanson could well outpace that number, too. Certainly, the reported $96-102MM range in which the Braves last sat now feels even less plausible than it did a month ago.

While it’s apparent that the 11-year lengths of both the Turner and Bogaerts deals were rooted in a desire for the Phillies and Padres to mitigate some luxury-tax concerns, there’s also little denying that the overall guarantee of each contract exceeded most expectations. Turner was at least thought to have a chance at $300MM, but Bogaerts utterly shattered even the most bullish predictions by pulling in that $280MM sum. Moreover, because Bogaerts landed with a team that wasn’t even thought to be involved in the shortstop market, he lowered the supply of available shortstops without necessarily suppressing the demand (at least not in the same manner as he would have by signing with the Giants, Twins or another club active in this market).

As such, Swanson is now one of two remaining high-end shortstops in a market that has at least three teams — not including the incumbent Braves — aggressively looking to add a shortstop. Each of the Giants, Twins and Cubs are known to be active in the shortstop market, and it stands to reason that others could be on the periphery.

For example, the Red Sox, having just been spurned by Bogaerts, may not want to pay Correa’s price but could view Swanson as someone they could lure for a contract closer to what they reportedly offered Bogaerts (six years, $162MM). The Orioles, meanwhile, have at least gauged the asking price on the available shortstops, though it’d still register as a shock to see Baltimore earnestly jump into the Swanson bidding. The Cardinals had interest in Swanson but are likely out after instead making their free-agent splash at the catcher position, signing Willson Contreras to a five-year deal.

Perhaps as notable as the lack of offseason communications is Bowman’s further reporting that Swanson has been “bothered by the absence of communication” and recently reached out directly to Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos. It’s hard to hear that and not think back to the free agency of Freddie Freeman last offseason, which obviously culminated in Freeman’s somewhat stunning departure from Atlanta and a six-year deal with the Dodgers.

To this point, there’s no indication that the Braves’ standing offer is their best and final offer. It’s possible that if Swanson comes to the Braves with serious offers from other suitors, Atlanta will commensurately up its offer to Swanson and his agents at Excel Sports Management (the same agency that represented Freeman).

That said, there have been hints since before the offseason even began that retaining Swanson is hardly a foregone conclusion. I broke down the Braves’ payroll and their proximity to the luxury tax months ago, and while both Braves CEO Terry McGuirk and Liberty Media CEO Greg Maffei have offered optimistic comments about being willing to field a top-five payroll, neither pointed out the fact that the Braves are already fairly close to that level — particularly with regard to their ongoing luxury-tax ledger, which is currently the fifth-largest in baseball. Indications since have been that the Braves won’t pursue the non-Swanson shortstops and that they may not have much of an appetite for committing any salary that “takes up too high a percentage of their payroll” (as reported by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal in November).

As things stand, the Braves are just over $3MM shy of the $233MM luxury threshold, as projected by Roster Resource. Signing Swanson would likely take them in the range of $20MM over the tax, and any additional acquisitions (or a potential Max Fried extension) could push them well into the second tier and possibly to the precipice of the third tier. Crossing into that third tier would drop their pick in next year’s draft by 10 places. Braves brass has voiced a willingness to cross at least into that first luxury tier, but the fact that Atlanta acquired cash to help cover Joe Jimenez’s salary in their recent trade with the Tigers doesn’t necessarily portray a team that will cross that threshold with little concern.

Until he signs elsewhere, Swanson still has a chance to remain with his hometown Braves. However, a months-long lack of negotiations, a standing offer that’s likely well shy of his eventual price tag, and a market of at least two other motivated suitors casts plenty of doubt on whether Atlanta is the likeliest landing place for Swanson.

Twins Among Teams With Interest In Dansby Swanson

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The Twins recently chatted with Dansby Swanson via video conference, reports Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic. They’re one of a handful of teams in discussion with the longtime Brave, who’s one of the three top shortstops remaining in free agency.

Minnesota is one of a handful of teams that has been involved in the market. Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports the Cubs, Cardinals and Red Sox have joined the Twins in showing significant interest this offseason (Twitter link). The incumbent Braves have also publicly maintained they’d like to keep Swanson.

There’s still a fair bit of uncertainty in Swanson’s market, as he’s not the primary target of either Minnesota or Boston. The Twins continue to prioritize Carlos Correa, although there’s also a chance they’re outbid by a bigger spender. The Dodgers are reportedly uninterested in Correa, but the Giants loom as a major threat after missing out on Aaron Judge. San Francisco still has plenty of spending capacity after Judge declined their offer in the $360MM range, and Correa has been reported as their favorite of the top-tier shortstops available. The Twins have been linked to both Bogaerts and now Swanson as potential fallback options in the event they lose the bidding for Correa.

Swanson’s surely a secondary option for the Red Sox as well. Boston chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has called Bogaerts their top priority on a number of occasions, and reports this morning suggested there was growing momentum in talks between the Sox and their longtime shortstop. So long as no deal is in place, the Red Sox are a viable fit for Swanson. If they do retain Bogaerts, he’d pair with Trevor Story in the middle infield and almost certainly rule out a Swanson pickup.

It looks unlikely the Cardinals will remain in the top of the shortstop market moving forward. St. Louis agreed to terms with top free agent backstop Willson Contreras this morning. That obviously doesn’t present a positional logjam for Swanson, but it adds a reported five-year, $87.5MM contract to the books. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggested earlier this week the Cards were unlikely to pursue the top shortstops unless they acquired their catcher more affordably via trade. A significant free agent deal for Contreras seems likely to leave the Cards to rely on Tommy Edman and some combination of Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman up the middle.

The Cubs are a stronger fit for Swanson. They’re not attempting to retain an in-house free agent shortstop as Minnesota and Boston are. Chicago has Nico Hoerner as a franchise building block, but he’s already expressed a willingness to kick over to second base to accommodate a big-ticket acquisition. The Cubs have already met with each of Correa, Bogaerts and Swanson and could make sense for any of that trio. Yet with the strong interest Correa and Bogaerts are seemingly drawing from other clubs, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote this afternoon the Cubs view Swanson as a more realistic target.

Swanson’s going to command a significant deal in his own right, of course. He won the NL Gold Glove award at shortstop in 2022, and he’s coming off arguably the best offensive season of his career. The 28-year-old (29 in February) hit .277/.329/.447 with 25 home runs while suiting up in all 162 games. He made the no-brainer decision to decline a qualifying offer, meaning any signing team would have to forfeit a draft choice to bring him in. MLBTR predicted Swanson to land a seven-year, $154MM deal at the opening of the offseason.

Padres Unlikely To Pursue Other Shortstops After Missing Out On Trea Turner

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The Padres’ bid to sign Trea Turner —  which reportedly included a larger offer than he accepted in Philadelphia, even after accounting for California’s higher income tax — caught plenty of fans and pundits off-guard. The Padres already have Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim, Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth as options in the infield, and San Diego also has a pair of $300MM players on the roster in Machado and Tatis (though the former could opt out following the 2023 season).

There’s been speculation (here included) about whether Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller will pivot and look into the remaining All-Star shortstops in free agency, but Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that Turner was viewed as a special case and that the Padres were singularly interested in him, rather than adding another shortstop to the mix. As such, it’s unlikely that the Friars will pursue any of Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson in the wake of being spurned by Turner. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin does write that the Padres have checked in with Bogaerts this offseason, but Lin adds that Turner was the team’s “clear” preference. MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell adds that the Padres have not spoken to Kim or Cronenworth about a position change at this time.

Preller acknowledged the team’s interest in Turner and the disappointment in not landing him when speaking with Acee and others on the San Diego beat Monday evening. Part of Turner’s appeal, as Preller explained, was his athleticism and experience playing positions other than shortstop, which the Friars believed could create some more flexible lineup choices.

Even if the Padres are out of the mix (or, at best, on the periphery) for the remaining shortstops, the strong bid for Turner is still plenty notable. It underscores that even with a star-studded roster and a payroll that many expected to be reaching its maximum levels, Padres ownership is willing to spend at levels commensurate with the sport’s very biggest financial powers. The Padres paid the luxury tax in 2022, have a projected $210MM bottom-line payroll in 2023 and a projected $230MM in luxury-tax obligations, per Roster Resource, but were apparently still content to put down a $300MM+ offer on Turner.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that San Diego will pivot and dive headlong into the bidding for Aaron Judge, but it also at least opens the door for speculation about such top-of-the-market pursuits. Preller spoke of a corner bat and a starting pitcher as his top needs. Acee suggests that San Diego has looked into reunions with Josh Bell and Brandon Drury in addition to the recently non-tendered Dominic Smith, illustrating the  vast breadth of possibilities the team is considering with Turner now in Philadelphia.

Cubs Have Met With Carlos Correa At Winter Meetings

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The Cubs have had discussions with Carlos Correa in the past 24 hours, according to Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, general manager Carter Hawkins and manager David Ross all attended the meeting. Levine also notes the team has had recent discussions with both Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson – the other two top shortstops remaining after Trea Turner agreed to a deal with the Phillies.

Both Correa and Bogaerts in particular have been strongly linked to the Cubs this off-season, and although it’s not yet known whether or not either has received an offer, Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times relays information from Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer’s media availability stating the team has made multiple offers to free agents this winter, and that the team is heavily focused on free agency over trades at the moment.

In the wake of Turner coming off the board on an 11-year, $300MM deal, there seems sure be a greater sense of urgency among the teams seeking to sign one of the top free agent shortstops. The Cubs have long been speculated as a possible landing spot for one of the “big four” (now big three) shortstops. They’re a team with plenty of financial muscle that’s looking to make a splash and return to winning ways, so inking a marquee free agent makes plenty of sense.

Correa only turned 28 in September, so he’s still young enough to be a long-term piece for a Cubs team that may not have all the pieces it needs to compete for a championship in 2023. Correa also comes with the added benefit of avoiding draft pick compensation, as he already received one last winter before signing his short-term deal with the Twins.

He’s also coming off yet another elite season, one in which he was worth 4.4 fWAR with the Twins. He slashed .291/.366/.467 with 22 home runs for a wRC+ of 140. He experienced a dip in defensive ratings, but was still worth 3 Defensive Runs Saved, though that was the lowest mark of his career.

MLBTR predicted a nine-year, $288MM deal for Correa, although in light of Turner’s deal with Philadelphia, it’s not hard to imagine Correa’s contract heading north of the $300MM mark. The Cubs currently have a projected payroll of $127MM, per RosterResource, which, for a team that has seen payrolls in excess of $200MM recently, leaves plenty of room for a Correa-sized addition and more.

Of course, Correa’s market is expected to be robust, with the Twins making a strong effort to re-sign him, and the Giants and other teams likely to be interested. With that in mind, it makes sense that the team is remaining engaged with Swanson and Bogaerts as well. Levine reports that Chicago met with Bogaerts ten days ago. Swanson is a year older than Correa, while Bogaerts is 30, and while both are elite players in their own right, both will probably command smaller commitments than Correa.

While there’s been plenty of talk of the Cubs signing one of the top shortstops, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the team could sign two of the shortstops. In that case, it’d likely be Bogaerts and Swanson signing, rather than Correa and one of the other two, and it’d be contingent on Bogaerts moving to third base. Needless to say, with the widespread interest in all three players, it’d be a challenge for the Cubs to win the bidding for two of them, but it’s an interesting added layer to consider.

Latest On Cardinals’ Offseason Priorities

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The Cardinals have had a quiet offseason, with minor league infielder Jose Fermín being their only outside acquisition to date. That’s certain to change in the coming days and weeks, as St. Louis will undoubtedly bring in a catcher. They could look to the rotation and perhaps to the middle infield or corner outfield markets as well, although they have a number of position players on a typically deep St. Louis roster.

Entering the offseason, there was a fair bit of speculation the Cards could partake in the loaded free agent shortstop class. There’s not much indication they’ve dived deeply into that market, although Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted this afternoon they’ve at least checked in with free agent options at the position. Still, it doesn’t seem that’s a huge priority, as president of baseball operations John Mozeliak reiterated this evening the team is comfortable with Tommy Edman as their primary shortstop (via Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat). The top St. Louis executive went on to note the team likes Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman as second base possibilities.

That’s a sentiment Mozeliak has expressed a few times in the offseason’s early going. Asked about the possibility of adding a shortstop last week, Mozeliak replied that Edman is “is a very, very good shortstop” (link via Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic). While he’s never expressly ruled out an acquisition at the position, Mozeliak has extolled Edman when given the chance. The switch-hitting infielder is a Gold Glove caliber defender at both middle infield positions, and he’s coming off a quality .265/.324/.400 line through 630 plate appearances.

Edman could certainly move back to second base, but the presence of Donovan and Gorman gives St. Louis plenty of options. The former finished third in NL Rookie of the Year balloting this year after posting an excellent .394 on-base percentage through his first 126 MLB games. The latter had strikeout concerns but connected on 14 home runs in 89 games as a rookie after mashing in Triple-A. Neither Donovan nor Gorman is a strong defensive fit for up-the-middle work, but that’s perhaps not as significant a concern for a St. Louis team that otherwise has plus defenders (Paul Goldschmidt, Edman and Nolan Arenado) manning the dirt.

Paul DeJong also remains under contract, due $11MM and headed into the last guaranteed season of his deal. The former All-Star is coming off a third straight well below-average offensive season that kicked him down the depth chart, but the front office has consistently maintained they expected he’d bounce back. After a .157/.245/.286 showing in 77 MLB games in 2022, DeJong can’t be counted on for everyday reps on a win-now team. Yet it’s possible he sticks on the roster as a glove-first complement to Gorman and Donovan in the middle infield.

Mozeliak suggested DeJong is likely to be with St. Louis heading into 2023, telling reporters tonight (via Jones) they’re “not ready to cut bait” on the 29-year-old. He indicated the Cards have received some trade interest in DeJong — presumably from teams asking they’d pay down most of the contract while accepting a meager return — but suggested that’s not a course of action the Cards plan to take.

It seems a long shot the Cardinals end up landing one of the three remaining top shortstops, with more motivated teams in the bidding. However, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets the team could circle back to that market if they find their desired catching upgrade on the trade market. Dansby Swanson, who’s expected to command a lighter contract than either of Carlos Correa or Xander Bogaerts, would be the likely target in that event, Goold suggests. It seems any full-fledged pursuit of a shortstop for St. Louis would first be conditional on affordably solidifying the situation behind the plate, and it’s still not clear the team would consider a marquee investment at the position to be especially appealing.

Cubs Interested In Dansby Swanson

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The Cubs are among the teams with interest in shortstop Dansby Swanson, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link).  Chicago has been known to have interest in the free agent shortstop market, though Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts were the shortstops more linked to the Cubs.

Still, with so many other teams keen on landing a top-tier shortstop, it isn’t surprising that the Cubs have at least considered every member of the “big four” — Swanson, Bogaerts, Correa, and Trea Turner.  Bogaerts and Correa have stood out from the pack since the Cubs have reportedly had interest in Correa for years, while Bogaerts’ ties to Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer string back to Hoyer’s days in the Red Sox organization.

That said, Swanson naturally has plenty of appeal to any team looking for an upgrade at shortstop.  The former first overall pick is coming off the best of his seven MLB seasons, as Swanson had a career-high 6.4 fWAR over 696 plate appearances and the full 162 games with the Braves.  Swanson’s contributions came on both offense (.277/.329/.447 with 25 homers and 18 steals) and defense, with his first career Gold Glove and a range of above-average marks from public defensive metrics.

Swanson turns 29 in February, so he is still young enough to be a long-term piece for a Cubs team that might have a few too many roster holes to be a full-fledged contender in 2023, though it depends on how aggressive Chicago plans to be this winter.  Like Bogaerts and Turner, Swanson comes at the extra price of draft pick compensation, since all of these three shortstops rejected a qualifying offer (Correa was ineligible for a QO after receiving one last winter).  Swanson is the second-youngest of the big four shortstops, though he is generally seen as the member of the group who has the smallest price tag, comparatively speaking.  MLBTR projected him for a seven-year, $154MM deal, which still ranks fifth on our top 50 free agents list — Swanson was ranked behind only Aaron Judge and the other three shortstops.

It stands to reason that pretty much every team (i.e. the Phillies, Giants, Orioles, Padres, Red Sox) looking into any of the top shortstops might have some interest in other members of the group, a la the Cubs.  That said, the Braves have been the only team known to have a direct interest in Swanson himself, and if Swanson did sign elsewhere, Atlanta isn’t likely to look to Correa, Turner, or Bogaerts as a replacement.

Phillies To Meet With Top Four Free Agent Shortstops

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The Phillies have meetings scheduled with all four of the top free agent shortstops, reports Jayson Stark of the Athletic. They’ll sit down with the representatives for each of Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts before the Winter Meetings kick off in earnest next Monday.

Philadelphia is widely seen as likely to land one member of that group, with reports suggesting they’re particularly dialed in on Turner. They’ve also been previously linked to Bogaerts, and it’s easy enough to see why they’d cover all bases in meeting with Correa and Swanson as well. The Phils have a need for middle infield help to pair with youngster Bryson Stott, and adding one of the top shortstops available is the most straightforward way to achieving that.

The expectation is that Correa and Turner will command the two largest contracts, with Boagerts and Swanson coming in behind them. Correa is the youngest of the group at age 28, while Turner has the most consistent offensive track record over the past couple seasons and is arguably the game’s top baserunner. Bogaerts is a similar caliber of hitter to Correa and Turner but has faced some questions about his ability to stick at shortstop into his mid-30’s. Swanson’s coming off a Gold Glove-winning season that he paired with arguably the best offensive showing of his career, but his general track record at the plate is behind the other three.

All four players are commanding ample interest and could top $150MM on the open market. The Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Twins, Braves, Red Sox and Orioles are among the teams that have been tied to at least one of the shortstops available. Turner, who’s reportedly the Phillies’ primary target, has been linked to a pair of the NL’s other top teams.

Ken Rosenthal wrote last night that the Padres were among the clubs with interest in Turner, and Rosenthal and Dennis Lin at the Athletic report tonight that San Diego has already met with Turner and his representatives twice this offseason. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune also characterizes the club’s interest in Turner as legitimate. Acee suggests that San Diego actually signing one of the top shortstops remains a long shot, considering the Friars already have Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth as middle infield options. However, the Union-Tribune writes that San Diego could put Cronenworth on the trade market to alleviate the logjam if they surprisingly landed one of the top shortstops. The Friars have also been tied to Bogaerts at multiple points this offseason.

The Dodgers have been connected to both Turner and Bogaerts on various occasions. Juan Toribio of MLB.com wrote yesterday that L.A. and Turner have spoken in recent weeks. Toribio suggests the Dodgers could be reluctant to meet Turner’s asking price, but it seems likely the sides will remain in contact as the Winter Meetings approach.

Continuing with the theme, the Twins have a sit-down scheduled with Correa in the next few days, tweets Darren Wolfson of SKOR North. Minnesota has maintained their interest in retaining Correa throughout the offseason, and they’ve reportedly floated him a number of long-term deals.

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