Danny Salazar

The Indians announced this afternoon that right-hander Danny Salazar will miss the remainder of the season after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder. He’ll go 12 to 16 weeks without throwing, according to the announcement.

It’s not entirely clear what damage was found during the procedure, which was announced by the team last week to be exploratory in nature. At the time of the initial announcement, it was not clear when or if Salazar would be able to return, though today’s update provides further clarity in that regard. Presumably, the Indians will have further updates on Salazar’s shoulder prior to tonight’s game.

Salazar’s 2018 season, then, will come to a close without throwing a single pitch at the big league level. It’s a disappointing outcome for a pitcher who, at his best, has looked like one of the more talented arms in the American League. However, Salazar’s career has been punctuated by arm injuries. He’s had issues with his right arm dating back to the 2012 season in A-ball, and he’s missed time in four of the past five seasons owing to some type of arm trouble.

Last year, Salazar was limited to 103 innings by shoulder discomfort and, later in the year, inflammation in his right elbow. Cleveland moved him to the bullpen late in the season, and he was ultimately shut down for the year in mid-August.

In his peak form, Salazar has the ability to overpower opposing lineups. He’s averaged 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings pitched in the Majors, and he was among the league leaders in both xFIP and SIERA from 2014-15 (min. 200 innings). Salazar’s considerable arm troubles, though, make it unclear as to whether he’ll ever truly be able to tap into his clear front-of-the-rotation potential.

The Indians will be faced with at least somewhat of a decision in the coming offseason. Salazar agreed to a one-year, $5MM deal to avoid arbitration last offseason, and he won’t throw a single pitch in 2018. By the time he’s up for arbitration again this offseason, he’ll be more than 15 months removed from setting foot on a Major League mound. While Salazar won’t get a raise in arbitration, the typical outcome for players who miss the entire season is to agree to the same salary they had in the injury-ruined year. In other words, Salazar is likely looking at a $5MM salary for the 2019 season as well.

It still seems likely that Cleveland would simply non-tender Salazar, but that could depend largely on the information that was gathered from today’s surgery. If the rehab program is expected to cut into the 2019 season, or if the Indians simply feel his shoulder to be unlikely to ever fully recover, it’s possible that they could simply move on — be it via trade or non-tender. That scenario would be somewhat reminiscent of the Marlins’ decision to non-tender Henderson Alvarez at a similar price point a few years back, though Alvarez had undergone multiple shoulder surgeries, and the Indians don’t face the same level of payroll constraints that have handcuffed the Miami organization.

Indians right-hander Danny Salazar will undergo exploratory surgery on his bothersome right shoulder on Monday, as per a team announcement (hat tip to MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian).  Details on when, or if, Salazar could be back on the mound this season won’t be known until after the procedure.

Salazar first suffered shoulder problems prior to Spring Training, with an issue that was described as rotator cuff inflammation, and later diagnosed as an impingement.  The injury has kept him out of action for the entire season, and after rest and a pair of plasma injections didn’t lead to any progress, it seems as though surgery was the only logical next course of action.

Today’s announcement creates fresh doubt about whether or not Salazar will see any action at all in 2018.  Even if nothing serious is discovered during the procedure, he would still need several weeks to recover and build up arm strength after not pitching since February.  The best-case scenario would seem to be a September return, though the Tribe would most likely deploy Salazar out of the bullpen rather than rely on him for a starter’s workload.

Cleveland has largely managed to withstand Salazar’s absence this season, as the team’s rotation ranks at or near the top of most starting pitching categories.  Over the long term, however, Salazar’s future with the Tribe may now be in question due to continued injuries.  This is the third straight year that Salazar has faced shoulder problems, and he also had forearm and elbow issues in 2016.  As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted in our last update on Salazar’s condition, the Indians could decide that Salazar is too risky a proposition to be tendered a contract in his third year of arbitration eligibility.  Even after potentially missing an entire season, Salazar would still be in line for a token raise of his $5MM salary for 2018, which would be a tough fit for a payroll-conscious team like Cleveland.

The Indians are still searching for answers on Danny Salazar’s ailing right shoulder, writes Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Salazar, 28, has been out all season due to a right shoulder impingement that is causing tendinitis, and he’s currently not throwing after receiving a pair of injections in his shoulder this month. He will be re-evaluated by team medical officials in the coming days.

FanRag’s Jon Heyman, though, paints an even more ominous picture when it comes to Salazar, reporting in this week’s notes column that the Indians don’t expect Salazar to return until September, if he returns at all this season. For a club that has seen considerable struggles both at the fifth spot in the rotation and in the bullpen, that’s a most unwelcome timeline for a clearly talented arm that, if healthy, would give Cleveland one of the top rotations in all of baseball.

Fans of the team, clearly, will hope that there’s still some possibility of a more optimistic prognosis. The recent track record, though, does not inspire much confidence. Shoulder troubles slowed Salazar in 2017 as well, when the right-hander was limited to just 103 innings. More generally, durability concerns have plagued him throughout his MLB tenure, as he’s topped 25 appearances and 140 innings in just one season — his 185-inning 2015 campaign.

If Salazar is indeed out of the picture for the foreseeable future, the Indians will  have to determine whether Shane Bieber or Adam Plutko will occupy the fifth spot in the rotation behind Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger now that Josh Tomlin has been dropped to the bullpen. They’ll also need to plan for ways in which they can upgrade their bullpen without relying on the possibility of a healthy Salazar returning to supplement a group that has struggled through multiple DL stints to Andrew Miller. Clearly, the team has missed the reliable innings it got last year from setup men Bryan Shaw and Joe Smith (though Shaw has struggled considerably in his own right in his first season with the Rockies).

A prolonged absence for Salazar would not only be a blow to the Indians but would also potentially impact his future standing with the organization. Salazar entered the 2018 season with three years, 162 days of Major League service time and will be arbitration-eligible for the third time as a Super Two player this offseason. He’s earning $5MM this year and would likely command that same figure in arbitration were he to miss the whole year, while he’d probably receive a small bump if he returns to contribute in any capacity this September. While that’s hardly an exorbitant amount to pay for a pitcher of Salazar’s considerable upside, the Indians don’t generally have ample cash reserves to work with and could end up facing a tough call.