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Danny Jansen

Rays Sign Danny Jansen

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The Rays have upgraded behind the plate. Tampa Bay announced they have signed free agent catcher Danny Jansen on a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2026. The contract reportedly guarantees the ISE Baseball client $8.5MM — taking the form of an $8MM salary and a $500K buyout on the $12MM option. Jansen reportedly declined multi-year proposals in order to return to the open market next winter.

Jansen, 29, is a longtime division foe, having spent his entire career to date with the Blue Jays and, briefly this summer, the Red Sox. He’s a rebound candidate looking to bounce back after a down year at the plate in which he slashed just .206/.308/.348 in 328 plate appearances. It was a rough year and a particularly rough finish for Jansen, but heading into the season he looked primed for a notable deal in free agency. From 2021-23, he slashed a combined .237/.317/.487 (121 wRC+) — including a huge .260/.339/.516 showing in 2022.

Any discussion of Jansen’s downturn at the plate should take note of the fact that he opened the season on the injured list due to a fracture in his wrist he suffered during spring training. Jansen raced out of the gate with a .295/.375/.533 slash through his first 120 plate appearances before falling into a prolonged slump from which he never really recovered. Jansen hit just .150/.270/.237 over his final 204 trips to the plate.

(Anecdotally, Jansen also became the first player in MLB history to play for both teams in the same game, starting for the Jays in a rain-suspended game against the Red Sox that was subsequently finished in the second half — after he’d been traded to Boston.)

Jansen still walked at a stout 12.7% clip in that time and fanned in a slightly lower-than-average 21% of his plate appearances. However, his quality of contact went into the tank (85 mph average exit velocity, 24.2% hard-hit rate). Jansen’s .172 average on balls in play during that span of just over 200 plate appearances was surely indicative of some poor fortune, but the lack of quality contact underscores that it wasn’t mere bad luck on its own.

The Rays will hope a healthier Jansen can help them solve a need behind the plate that has persisted for several seasons. Tampa Bay’s catchers last year were predictably among the least-productive in the league — as one would expect when opening the year with journeyman Alex Jackson and a defensive specialist like Ben Rortvedt as the big league catching tandem. By measure of wRC+, the Rays’ catchers were 33% worse than average at the plate. Only the Marlins and White Sox received less-productive output from the position. Tampa Bay catchers combined for a disastrous .194/.272/.291 slash on the season, though Rortvedt’s knack for drawing walks and strong glovework at least made things slightly more palatable.

Even if Jansen simply matches last year’s lackluster output, it’d be an offensive upgrade for the Rays. If he can recapture a portion of his 2021-23 form, it could be a massive improvement to the lineup. Defensively, he’s probably a step down, though there’s reason to hope for improvement in 2025. Jansen has typically rated as a solid but not elite defender. Statcast gave him plus grades for blocking pitches in the dirt and slightly below-average framing marks last year. Jansen has a career 20% caught-stealing rate but sits just over 13% in the past two seasons. However, he’s fractured the middle finger and the wrist in his throwing hand over those two seasons, either of which could have a subsequent impact on his throwing; Jansen’s average 1.99 second pop time is still right in line with where it sat in 2022 (1.98 seconds).

Jansen’s signing should push the Rays’ payroll into the $86MM range. That number could still change dramatically, however, as the Rays have received trade interest in veterans like Jeffrey Springs ($10.5MM in 2024), Yandy Diaz ($10MM), Pete Fairbanks ($3.666MM) and Zack Littell (projected $4.8MM) — among others. It’s not clear just how willing ownership is to spend in the wake of the hurricane damage that ruined Tropicana Field’s roof and forced the Rays to relocate to Tampa’s Steinbrenner Field (home of the Yankees’ Class-A affiliate). The Jansen deal, however, at least signals a willingness to spend modestly, even if the eventual plan is to balance things out by trading other veterans for young, controllable (and cheaper) talent.

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first reported the Rays and Jansen were nearing a deal. Ken Rosenthal and Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic reported that it would be a one-year contract. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the $8.5MM guarantee, as well as Jansen’s decision to decline multi-year offers. Topkin was first with the mutual option and salary breakdown.

No Momentum Towards Extension Between Padres, Luis Arráez

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Infielder Luis Arráez is one year away from being a free agent. He has expressed an openness to signing an extension but it doesn’t appear anything is close on that front. Per a report from Dennis Lin of The Athletic, the Friars have “not yet engaged in serious extension talks” with Arráez.

The fact that extension talks have not happened yet doesn’t necessarily mean that they can’t happen at a later date. Traditionally, clubs like to use this part of the calendar to focus on player acquisitions, leaving extensions for closer to spring training. However, Lin reports that there is some debate within the San Diego front office about how valuable Arráez is, which perhaps reduces the odds of extension talks gaining steam down the road.

On top of that, there are the ongoing budgetary questions to consider. The Padres were among the most aggressive clubs in baseball while owner Peter Seidler was still alive, but it was clearly unsustainable. In September of 2023, alongside news of Seidler’s deteriorating health, it was reported that their debt service ratio was not in compliance with MLB regulations.

The club had given out nine-figure contracts to players like Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, alongside some other notable deals as they looked to remake the club’s image as a small-market also-ran. As they were sending that money out the door, less was coming in, as their TV deal with Diamond Sports Group collapsed.

Going into 2024, the club needed to cut some payroll but had limited options for doing so. All of those aforementioned deals were quite large and therefore hard to trade. Even if the Padres found interest, all of those players have full no-trade clauses on their deals. All of these factors, as well as a lack of rotation depth, seemed to lead to the Juan Soto trade. That allowed the Friars to make a big cut from their budget and duck under the competitive balance tax while also bringing back arms like Michael King and Drew Thorpe, with Thorpe later flipped as part of the Dylan Cease trade.

Going into 2024, the budget could again be an issue. Though they haven’t yet made any notable moves this offseason, RosterResource projects them for a $210MM payroll next year, more than $40MM beyond last year. They are also projected for a $244MM CBT number, just above next year’s $241MM base threshold.

It’s unknown what sort of exact payroll parameters the club has for 2025, but Lin suggests the budget is tight again. He reports that the Friars were interested in catchers Kyle Higashioka and Danny Jansen but came up short despite those backstops getting relatively modest deals. Higashioka got $13.5MM over two years from the Rangers while Jansen settled for just one year and $8.5MM from the Rays. That doesn’t suggest the club is working with a lot of financial firepower this winter.

Arráez would be a speculative candidate for a move to open some spending capacity since he’s effectively in the same position that Soto was last year. He’s going into his final year of club control and set to make a notable salary while several other players are locked into long-term deals.

Cease and King are also just one year from the open market, but trading either of them seems less likely. The San Diego rotation has a strong front three consisting of those two and Darvish but things get flimsy after that. Musgrove is likely to miss the entire 2025 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October. Martín Pérez just became a free agent. Matt Waldron and Randy Vásquez are options for the back end but neither is fully established at this point. If anything, the club needs to add to that group, so subtracting King or Cease wouldn’t make much sense.

Arráez, on the other hand, could make more sense as a trade candidate. He is one of the game’s best contact hitters, having won three straight batting titles, but doesn’t walk much or provide much power. He has only drawn a walk in 6.9% of his career plate appearances but has only been struck out 6.8% of the time, while never hitting more than ten homers in a season. His .323/.372/.418 batting line translates to a 120 wRC+.

That’s a unique approach in today’s game and Arráez is clearly the best at the things he does well, but it’s also a limited profile. He’s doesn’t steal a ton of bases and isn’t considered a strong defender at either second or first base, his two primary positions.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Arráez for a salary of $14.6MM next year. That’s far less than what Soto was slated to make in 2024 but still a lot of money for a useful but limited player. If the Padres were to trade Arráez, perhaps for some pitching, they could have an infield consisting of Machado at third, Bogaerts at short and Jake Cronenworth at second, perhaps using some of the savings to go after a cheaper option at first. Lin writes that the club would prefer to have Bogaerts at second like the start of the 2024 season but they would need a solution at shortstop with Ha-Seong Kim now a free agent and likely to miss the start of the 2025 season due to shoulder surgery.

This is largely speculative but Lin’s report that the front office isn’t convinced of Arráez’s value could perhaps nudge them more towards a trade than an extension. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has generally been unafraid to make bold strikes even when painful, as last year’s Soto trade showed, so the Friars could be a club to watch in the coming weeks if they shake up the trade market.

One player unlikely to be on the block is reliever Robert Suarez. Per Lin, the Padres are inclined to keep him as his contract has an opt-out after 2025, which complicates trade talks. The righty is set to make $10MM in 2025 and then $8MM in each of the next two years, though he can walk away from those final two seasons. He just posted a solid 2.77 ERA in 2024 and clubs would surely have interest in that kind of performance, but the contract provides a lot of downside. If Suarez suffered any kind of notable injury, he would surely decline his opt-out chance and linger on the books for those two years. Given that downside, a club may be reluctant to give up any kind of notable return or take on the entirety of the contract.

Lin also adds that the Padres are “hopeful, if not confident, about a potential reunion” with outfielder Jurickson Profar. After a dreadful 2023 season, Profar signed with San Diego for a guarantee of just $1MM in 2024. That turned out to be a massive bargain for the club, as Profar went on to hit .280/.380/.459 for a wRC+ of 139.

Profar and Preller have a long relationship, as he was working for the Rangers way back when Profar was signed as an international amateur. Since coming to the Padres, Preller has signed Profar multiple times. But on the heels of a career year, Profar might be looking to cash in. MLBTR predicted he could land a three-year deal with a $45MM guarantee. If Profar is looking for anything in that ballpark, it could be tough to get it from San Diego, given the aforementioned payroll restrictions.

Cubs Reportedly “Determined” To Trade Seiya Suzuki Or Cody Bellinger

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The Cubs are “determined” to trade one of first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger or outfielder Seiya Suzuki, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post, with the idea of then redirecting their cost savings to upgrade other parts of the roster. Per Bruce Levine of 670 The Score, the Cubs have some interest in catchers Carson Kelly and Danny Jansen as well as relievers Andrew Chafin and Kirby Yates.

The Cubs have been seen as a logical candidate to move an outfielder due to having a fairly crowded mix on the grass. Pete Crow-Armstrong seemingly established himself as a viable glove-first center fielder this year, with the potential for huge value if his offense takes a step forward. For the corner spots, the Cubs have Bellinger, Suzuki and Ian Happ. Bellinger can also play some first base but Michael Busch took that position and ran with it this year.

There are also some other options lurking just below those established big leaguers. Alexander Canario has just 45 major league plate appearances but he has always hit well in Triple-A and is now out of options. Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie are both on the 40-man roster and consensus top 100 prospects in the league. Alcántara made a brief MLB debut in 2024 while Caissie spent the whole season in Triple-A and played well, so both are arguably ready for some proper big league playing time. Even with the designated hitter spot open, that’s more guys than the Cubs have spots.

But untangling the knot comes with complications. The prospects and Crow-Armstrong are cheap and controllable, so the the Cubs probably view them as part of the long-term solution, especially since the Happ/Bellinger/Suzuki trio are all slated for free agency after 2026, with Bellinger able to opt out of his deal after 2025. But Happ and Suzuki have no-trade clauses, making it difficult to move them.

Bellinger is also difficult to trade on account of that opt-out. For the Cubs or an acquiring club, the best case scenario is that he plays well in 2025 and leaves, but even that wouldn’t be cheap. He’s going to make $27.5MM in 2025 and then gets to choose between a $5MM buyout and $25MM salary in 2026. That means that even a one-and-done from Bellinger in 2025 will cost $32.5MM. Teams may have some willingness to take a chance on Bellinger bouncing back from a middling 2024 campaign, but the downside is that he doesn’t quite get back into form and sticks around for 2026. In that scenario, the acquiring team would be on the hook for $52.5MM over two years for a struggling player.

At this point, it’s anyone’s guess which version of Bellinger is going to show up next year, given his up-and-down career. He won an MVP award earlier in his career but then suffered through a few miserable seasons, perhaps struggling to get healthy after a notable shoulder surgery. He bounced back with the Cubs in 2023, hitting 26 home runs, slashing .307/.356/.525 and stealing 20 bases. FanGraphs credited him with 4.4 wins above replacement in 130 games. He played the same number of games in 2024 but with his fWAR cut in half to 2.2. His home run tally dropped to 18, he stole nine bases and he played less time in center field as Crow-Armstrong took over that spot.

Lining up with another club on a trade could be difficult, but it’s still a possibility. At the start of the offseason, we put Bellinger on our list of likely trade candidates, though with a spot near the bottom as a reflection of the complications. It was reported this week that the Yankees, Mariners and Astros have checked in about him.

With Suzuki, this is the first suggestion that he is available, and he will surely draw interest. In his 381 major league games thus far, he has hit 55 home runs and drawn walks at a 10.2% clip. His .278/.354/.470 batting line translates to a 129 wRC+ and he has seemingly been getting better over time. His home run total has gone from 14 to 20 and then 21 in his three seasons, with his walk rate climbing year-over-year from 9.4% to 10.1% and then 10.8%. As such, his wRC+ has gone from 118 in his rookie season to 128 and then 138.

Suzuki isn’t considered a strong defender, with the advanced metrics mixed on exactly where to rank him. He has -5 Outs Above Average to this point but Defensive Runs Saved has him at league average overall, and with apparent improvements. He had -4 DRS in his rookie season and then +2 in each of the subsequent campaigns to get back to par overall.

Regardless, the bat should make him appealing and his contract isn’t onerous. He is going to make $18MM in each of the next two years, his age-30 and -31 campaigns, for a total guarantee of $36MM. Comparable free agents are likely to earn far more than that on the open market. MLBTR predicted that Anthony Santander could secure a contract of $80MM over four years, with guys like Teoscar Hernández, Jurickson Profar and Tyler O’Neill projected for the $40-60MM range.

As mentioned, Suzuki has a full no-trade clause. That naturally complicates the possibility of a trade, as the Cubs would be limited in their discussions to whatever clubs Suzuki would be willing to join and it’s unknown what his preferences are or might be. The Cubs will presumably have discussions with Suzuki and various suitors to see what possibilities exist for them. If a deal can come together, it would open up some playing time for their prospects while freeing up some cash for other pursuits.

It doesn’t appear the budget is especially tight right now. RosterResource has the Cubs projected for a $185MM payroll, well below last year’s Opening Day mark of $214MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Perhaps the Cubs are planning to keep spending a bit tight this offseason, as many predicted them to pursue a notable rotation upgrade such as Corbin Burnes or Max Fried. But they recently agreed to a two-year, $29MM deal with Matthew Boyd, a notable expense but far less than what Burnes or Fried are expected to earn.

The club is known to be looking for help behind the plate and Kelly and Jansen are two of the better names available in free agency. Kelly has generally paired some solid defense with passable offense in his career. Though his bat has gone up and down a bit, he has a .224/.307/.373 batting line in his career for a wRC+ of 85. Jansen, on the other hand, had a long stretch as a great hitter but is coming into free agency on a down note. He hit .237/.317/.487 for a wRC+ of 121 from 2021 to 2023 and got out to a roaring start in 2024 as well but then slashed .158/.274/.243 for a wRC+ of 53 after the month of May.

MLBTR predicted a two-year, $20MM guarantee for Jansen as part of our Top 50 free agents list, with Kelly in the honorable mention section. Either should easily fit into Chicago’s budget with or without an outfield trade.

Chafin and Yates both align with the Cubs and their aversion to notable deals for relievers, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Since Jed Hoyer took over as president of baseball operations, the club has never given a multi-year deal to a free agent reliever. Last year’s $9MM one-year deal for Héctor Neris was the first time Hoyer went beyond $5MM for a bullpen signing.

Yates just wrapped up a tremendous season, tossing 61 2/3 innings with a 1.17 earned run average and 35.9% strikeout rate. But since he’s turning 38 years old in March and has a notable injury history, he will likely be limited to a one-year deal. MLBTR’s $14MM projection would be new territory for Hoyer, though only slightly. Chafin has been a solid bullpen lefty for over a decade, with a 3.42 ERA in 601 appearances. His last two trips to free agency have resulted in one-year deals of $6.3MM and then $4.8MM.

Rays Had Interest In Travis d’Arnaud

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The Rays had interest in a reunion with veteran catcher Travis d’Arnaud prior to his deal with the Angels, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.

d’Arnaud, 36 in February, spent the past half decade in Atlanta but was a member of the Rays during the 2019 season, when he played 92 games for the club as part of a catching tandem with Mike Zunino and was a key part of the club’s first trip to the postseason since 2013. He split time between catching and playing first base with Tampa, and hit a solid .263/.323/.459 with 16 homers in just 365 trips to the plate. That production was good for a wRC+ of 109, and his excellent work with the Rays served as a springboard for him as he entered free agency that winter.

Of course, d’Arnaud ultimately landed with the Braves prior to the 2020 season and has spent the past five seasons as a fixture of the lineup in Atlanta, catching more games for them than any other player in each season except 2023, when Sean Murphy took over primary catching duties. The veteran has served as a roughly league average hitter overall during his time with the Braves, slashing .251/.312/.443 with a 106 wRC+. That’s just about in line with his production in 2024 as well, as he slugged 15 homers in 99 games en route to a 103 wRC+ with Atlanta this year. Valuable as d’Arnaud has been for the Braves, the club opted to part ways with him this winter with Murphy expected to be healthy enough to resume primary catching duties next year and catching prospect Drake Baldwin knocking on the door at Triple-A.

A reunion between d’Arnaud and the Rays would have certainly made sense given the club’s obvious hole behind the plate. Ben Rortvedt is on the roster as the club’s primary catcher after he posted a decent 87 wRC+ in 112 games for Tampa in 2024, but the club has parted ways with both Alex Jackson and Rene Pinto already this winter. That leaves them in need of a partner for Rortvedt, and preferably one who can become their primary catcher and allow Rortvedt to shift into a backup role. That’s a bill d’Arnaud would’ve fit nicely, offering a substantial upgrade over the club’s 67 wRC+ from the catcher position in 2024. That wasn’t meant to be, however. Topkin notes that d’Arnaud (a native of Long Beach, CA) was motivated to return to southern California, and his two-year, $12MM pact with the club allowed him to do just that.

Even as d’Arnaud landed elsewhere, however, Topkin suggests that free agency remains the best place for the Rays to find an upgrade behind the plate with few options known to be available on the trade market. Topkin suggests that veteran backstops Danny Jansen and Kyle Higashioka could be the best fits for the Rays’ needs behind the plate. Jansen, 29, struggled badly after a hot start this year but was a reliable presence behind the plate for Toronto in a part-time role from 2021-23 with an excellent .237/.317/.487 slash line (121 wRC+) in 754 trips to the plate over those three seasons. Even in his down 2024 season, he hit a respectable .237/.372/.342 against left-handed pitching this year, making him a solid platoon partner for Rortvedt.

Higashioka, on the other hand, is coming off a strong platform season but has less of a track record offensively and is entering the market at age 34. After spending parts of seven seasons in the Bronx, Higashioka split time with Luis Campusano behind the plate in San Diego this season and flashed impressive power with 17 home runs in just 264 trips to the plate. That incredible pace is somewhat stymied by his lackluster .263 on-base percentage, however, leaving him with a 105 wRC+ overall last year. Higashioka’s contributions were fairly split neutral this year as well, making him perhaps a somewhat less attractive platoon partner for Rortvedt than Jansen.

That said, it’s at least possible that Jansen and Higashioka could wind up out of the Rays’ price range this winter. MLBTR predicted two-year guarantees for both players on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. We predicted that Jansen will land a $20MM guarantee while Higashioka will find a guarantee of $15MM. For a Rays club that RosterResource projects for an $87MM payroll in 2025 after opening the 2024 campaign with a payroll just under $100MM, an annual salary in the $8MM to $10MM range might be difficult for the club to justify when the club could also look to upgrade its outfield mix this winter. Carson Kelly, Elias Diaz, James McCann, and Gary Sanchez are among the other options available this winter who could be had for a lesser guarantee than Jansen and Higashioka if the Rays are looking to save money.

Red Sox Designate Reese McGuire, Chase Anderson For Assignment

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The Red Sox announced a series of roster moves today. Left-hander James Paxton and catcher Danny Jansen, both recently acquired via trade, are active with the club. To make room for those two, the Sox designated right-hander Chase Anderson and backstop Reese McGuire for assignment. That opened two roster spots and they used one of those to claim right-hander Yohan Ramírez, recently designated for assignment by the Dodgers, off waivers.

McGuire, 29, has been with the Red Sox since 2022, generally serving as a light-hitting backup catcher but with strong defensive grades. He has seven Defensive Runs Saved in his career while each of FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Statcast consider him to be a strong framer.

But when he steps out from behind the plate and stands beside it, the results are less impressive. He has a career batting line of .252/.300/.364, which translates to a wRC+ of 79. He’s been even worse this year, with a .209/.280/.295 batting line and 59 wRC+.

That production likely inspired the Sox to go out and get Jansen, pairing him with Connor Wong behind the plate. Since McGuire is out of options, he’s been nudged off the roster entirely. He’s making a fairly modest salary of $1.5MM and can be retained for another year via arbitration. His poor results this year mean that he won’t be in line for a huge raise, so perhaps some club will be interested in him as a glove-first backup.

Anderson, 36, is a veteran who signed a modest $1.25MM deal with the Sox for this year. He’s been in a long relief role with the Sox, tossing 52 innings over 27 appearances. He’s allowed 4.85 earned runs per nine this year. His 8.5% walk rate is around average but his 15.6% strikeout rate and 32.5% ground ball rate are well below par. If it weren’t for a .229 batting average on balls in play, he probably would have allowed more runs across the plate.

The Sox will have until Tuesday’s trade deadline to deal either McGuire or Anderson, though they probably won’t find much interest in either, which could lead to both players being on waivers. Anderson has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency while retaining all of his salary. McGuire has more than three but less than five years of service, meaning he would have the right to elect free agency but would have to forfeit his remaining salary to hit the open market. That means he might stick with the Sox as non-roster depth if he passes through waivers unclaimed.

Ramírez, 29, has tossed 43 2/3 innings this year between the Mets, Orioles and Dodgers, frequently bouncing around due to his out-of-options status. In that time, he has a 5.98 ERA, 22.1% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate and 44.4% ground ball rate. All those rate stats are pretty close to league average, so his .339 BABIP and 60.8% strand rate might be pushing his ERA up a bit. HIs 4.18 FIP and 3.77 SIERA point to better results going forward.

Since the righty is out of options, the Sox will have to install him onto the active roster, meaning someone from their bullpen will have to be optioned whenever he reports to the team. He can be retained for three more seasons after this one if he hangs onto his roster spot.

Red Sox Acquire Danny Jansen

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The Red Sox turned to a division rival to upgrade behind the plate. Boston announced the acquisition of Danny Jansen for a trio of prospects: infielders Cutter Coffey and Eddinson Paulino and pitcher Gilberto Batista. Boston designated reliever Alex Speas for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

Jansen is the second impending free agent traded by Toronto in as many days. They sent righty reliever Yimi García to Seattle yesterday.Yusei Kikuchi is a lock to move by next Tuesday, while Trevor Richards, Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier could go as well. The Jays have thus far been resistant to trading key players whom they control beyond this season.

The 29-year-old Jansen is the top impending free agent catcher. He once seemed to be running away with that title and looked on track for a three- or four-year deal. That’s not the case anymore, as his bat has wilted over the past couple months. Jansen carried a robust .287/.371/.535 slash line into June. He’s hitting .134/.232/.196 in 112 plate appearances since that point. His walk and strikeout rates are right around average, but he only has one home run and four extra-base hits over the past two months.

Jansen’s overall .212/.303/.369 slash is seven percentage points below league average, as measured by wRC+. That’s fine output for a catcher but below Jansen’s typical level. He was an above-average hitter in all three seasons from 2021-23, combining for a .237/.317/.487 mark in 754 trips to the plate. At his best, Jansen blends a patient approach with good contact skills and double-digit homer power. He’s amidst one of the worst stretches of his career but clearly has the talent to perform better than he has over the past couple months.

Before his recent slump, the biggest knock on Jansen was his lack of availability. He has been on the injured list seven times over the past four seasons due to hamstring, oblique, groin, and hand injuries. Some of those were fluke occurrences suffered on a hit-by-pitch, including a season-opening IL stay this year due to a right wrist fracture sustained in Spring Training. Nevertheless, the injuries have dealt a hit to his value. Jansen has only once reached 90 games in a season. His career high sits at 107 games played and 384 plate appearances back in 2019.

The Red Sox have had one of the more productive catching groups in baseball. They entered play today with a .280/.349/.407 slash at the position. That’s almost entirely because of a breakout year from Connor Wong, who’s hitting .299/.362/.440 in 77 games. Backup Reese McGuire owns a .209/.280/.295 mark over 53 contests. McGuire is out of options and could eventually be squeezed off the roster. Boston will otherwise need to carry three catchers.

Jansen is a quality defender who could split time between catcher and designated hitter. He’s also a right-handed hitter, a stated goal for Boston chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, though he’s been more productive against same-handed pitchers than southpaws over the past few years. The Sox may still look for a more traditional lefty masher who could rotate through the outfield.

The Jays and Jansen agreed to a $5.2MM salary for his final arbitration season. Boston will take on roughly $1.8MM. RosterResource calculates their competitive balance tax number just shy of $220MM. Pushing near $222MM still leaves them with roughly $15MM before reaching the base threshold, so the front office should have plenty of financial margin for future pickups.

Toronto continues its look towards the future. Coffey, a right-handed hitting infielder, was a second-round pick out of high school two seasons ago. The 20-year-old has spent the entire year in High-A, where he owns a .238/.321/.463 slash line. Coffey has drilled 14 homers and 12 doubles in 61 games. He’s walking at a solid 10.3% clip against a slightly elevated 24% strikeout rate. He has played mostly third base with some action at both middle infield spots.

Paulino, 22, ranked 18th on Baseball America’s most recent update of Boston prospects. The native of the Dominican Republic is hitting .263/.349/.391 in 69 games at Double-A Portland. He only has three homers but has decent walk (10.4%) and strikeout (21.6%) numbers. Like Coffey, he has spent the majority of his time at third base and handled all three infield spots to the left of first. He’ll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft next offseason. Batista is a 19-year-old rookie ball pitcher who signed out of the Dominican Republic during the 2022-23 international period.

Speas has kicked around the waiver wire all season. Boston grabbed the hard-throwing righty from the Astros at the end of June. He has spent most of the year in Triple-A, where he’s allowing more than 11 earned runs per nine innings. A former second-round pick of the Rangers, Speas has four major league games under his belt. He runs his fastball into the triple digits but he’s walking more than a batter per inning in the minors. The Sox will likely try to sneak him through waivers in the next few days.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Jays and Red Sox were in serious discussion on a Jansen deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN confirmed a deal was in place and was first to report Coffey’s inclusion. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com added that the Jays were receiving three prospects in total.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Cubs Don’t Expect To Be Deadline Buyers

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The Cubs’ deadline trajectory has been an oft-discussed topic over the course of the past few weeks, with the team sitting at or near the bottom of the NL Central but also within striking distance of the final NL Wild Card spot. They’ve ostensibly explored possibilities on both ends of the buy/sell spectrum, showing interest in Toronto catcher Danny Jansen while also reportedly talking with both the Yankees and Red Sox about the potential of a Jameson Taillon trade. The Cubs dropped their first two games coming out of the All-Star break to a D-backs team that’s now tied for the final Wild Card spot, though they dodged a sweep in an extra-inning win Sunday.

While the Cubs are 3.5 games out in the Wild Card hunt, the latest report from Patrick Mooney, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic indicates that the Cubs aren’t planning to be buyers at next week’s trade deadline. That’s not an indication there’ll be any kind of prominent fire sale for the Cubs either, however. Chicago hopes to contend next year and isn’t likely to move players who are under control unless they receive big league-ready talent in return.

As for the Cubs’ slate of rental players, there’s simply not much to peddle to other clubs. Drew Smyly is sitting on an impressive 2.92 ERA in 37 relief innings, but he’s also walked 10.2% of his opponents and is playing on a contract other teams will want to avoid. Smyly is owed the balance of an $8.5MM salary for the current season (about $3.2MM) in addition to a $2.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option for the 2025 season.

Righty Kyle Hendricks is a free agent at season’s end but isn’t going to draw any interest with a $16MM salary and a 6.69 ERA (unless the Cubs eat the entirety of his contract, perhaps). Hector Neris has a 3.74 ERA and 24.2% strikeout rate in 33 2/3 innings — but he’s also walked a career-worst 16.1% of opponents. Neris is playing on a $9MM salary, and his $9MM club option will convert to a player option if he appears in 24 more games this season (60 total). That’s going to turn off any potentially interested parties. Cody Bellinger can become a free agent at season’s end, but he’s on the injured list with a fractured finger and the two opt-out provisions on his three-year deal would’ve made trading him extraordinarily difficult anyhow.

The Athletic’s report at least raises the speculative possibility of listening to offers for starter Justin Steele, though with three-plus seasons of club control remaining, the price would presumably be as high or even higher than the asks for crosstown ace Garrett Crochet (two years of club control remaining) and AL Cy Young front-runner Tarik Skubal (the latter of whom is not expected to be traded). There’s no reason to think the Cubs would outwardly shop Steele, but listening to see if someone steps up with a Juan Soto-esque haul for last year’s fifth-place NL Cy Young finisher is sensible enough.

With regard to Taillon, there’d be some sense to moving him even if the team doesn’t envision a broad-reaching sell-off. In signing any free agent to a long-term deal, a team is most interested in the first couple years of said contract. The 2025-26 seasons will be Taillon’s age-33 and age-34 campaigns. He’ll earn $18MM in each season on his slightly backloaded $68MM deal. Moving him would free up some money to potentially spend on a younger pitcher this offseason — or perhaps on another area of need entirely.

The Cubs control Steele, Shota Imanaga, Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski and Jordan Wicks through at least the 2027 season. Prospects Cade Horton and Brandon Birdsell are rising quickly through the system. There’s some depth from which to deal, and a Taillon trade could bring in talent, shed future payroll and reduce future luxury tax obligations. Taillon wouldn’t command nearly the same type of haul as Steele for a number of reasons (age, salary, general talent level), but there aren’t many arms available so the Cubs could conceivably take advantage of that shortage and see what the market bears.

It’s worth emphasizing, too, that most teams’ plans remain pretty fluid this time of year. While teams facing a gaps of eight, nine, ten or more games in their respective postseason pursuits are sure to focus on selling (just as clubs in the opposite position will primarily focus on adding), nearly half the teams in baseball exist in a relative purgatory between those two ends of the spectrum. There’s currently a three-team tie for the third NL Wild Card spot (Mets, D-backs, Padres), and another five teams are within four games of that final spot — the Cubs among them. In the American League, there are four teams within six games of the final Wild Card spot.

For instance, if the Cubs snapped off six or seven straight wins beginning today, they’d presumably be far more open to the idea of adding some pieces. That’s particularly true because their next three games come against the division-leading Brewers. But a win streak of that nature is always a long shot, and it’s plenty notable that for the time being, Chicago isn’t viewing itself as a team that will trade even lower-caliber minor league talent in exchange for some marginal rental upgrades. Time will tell whether the players on the field can push the front office to take a more aggressive stance, but right now it seems likely the Cubs are in for a relatively quiet deadline.

Cubs Reportedly Interested In Danny Jansen

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The Cubs have expressed interest in Blue Jays catcher Danny Jansen, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. It’s unclear how serious discussions between the sides have become at this point.

It would hardly be a surprise to see Toronto part ways with Jansen prior to the deadline on July 30. The club has experienced a freefall in the standings that has seen the club drop to just 43-52, 14 games out of the AL East and 9.5 games out of a playoff spot. That massive deficit in the standings has left the club’s playoff odds (according to Fangraphs) at just 1.6%. Given those dismal odds, it’s only natural that the club is reportedly “expressing openness” to moving on from rental players this summer.

Jansen, 29, is one of the club’s more intriguing rental players. Initially drafted in the 16th round back in 2013 by the Blue Jays, the Wisconsin native made his big league debut with Toronto back in 2018 and generally struggled at the plate early in his career. He carried a lackluster .208/.297/.370 slash line (79 wRC+) into the 2021 season. Fortunately, in 2021 Toronto began to lean less heavily on Jansen behind the plate due to the arrival of youngster Alejandro Kirk. From 2021-23, Jansen enjoyed a resurgence on offense while being counted on for an average of just 76 games a year. In 754 trips to the plate across those three seasons, he saw his wRC+ jump to 121 as he slashed a solid .237/.317/.487 while clubbing 43 home runs.

Early in the 2024 campaign, Jansen appeared to be on track for the best season of his career as he was slashing an incredible .287/.371/.535 through the end of May. He struck out just 15.5% of the time in those 116 trips to the plate while walking at a 12.1% clip and crushing five homers. Paired with generally strong defensive grades behind the plate throughout his career, that figured to make him an extremely attractive free agent this winter, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored for Front Office subscribers at the time.

Things have come off the rails a bit for Jansen since then, however. In 91 trips to the plate since the start of June, Jansen has posted a lackluster .141/.253/.218 across 26 games. An eye-popping .164 BABIP that’s all but certain to enjoy some positive regression indicates that there’s some reason for optimism when looking at Jansen’s numbers during this recent slump, as does the fact that Jansen’s plate discipline numbers (18.9% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate) remain impressive. Even so, it’s hard to imagine the Jays getting anywhere close to the trade return they might have had Jansen maintained his early season production now that he’s hitting a roughly league average .223/.319/.397 (103 wRC+) for the season.

Even so, it’s not hard to see why the Cubs would be interested in Jansen’s services. The club has struggled somewhat on offense this year with a collective wRC+ of 102 that ranks 16th in the majors this year, even in spite of excellent seasons from corner bats Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, and Michael Busch. The most obvious culprit for those struggles at the dish in Chicago is the players they’re using behind it, as Cubs catchers have slashed a pathetic .180/.227/.264 this year. That translates to a wRC+ of 39 that ranks 29th in the majors ahead of only the lowly Marlins.

It’s possible the Cubs would be willing to stomach that brutal offense production if they were getting elite defense behind the plate, but youngster Miguel Amaya has been worth -2 runs according to Statcast’s Fielding Run Value, and veteran Yan Gomes was performing even worse before being replaced by Tomas Nido after he was released by the Mets last month. Nido has looked good behind the plate but has hit a ghastly .135/.154/.189 in 13 games with the Cubs. He doesn’t have much of a track record to lean on, either, as a seven-game stint in 2020 is the only time in his career he’s posted a wRC+ higher than 86.

Those woes behind the plate make the Cubs an obvious fit for Jansen’s services, although it’s fair to wonder if Chicago will be in position to buy by the time the deadline rolls around. After all, the team is currently five games below .500 (46-51) and in dead last in the NL Central. They’re only 4.5 games out of the final NL Wild Card spot, but Fangraphs gives them playoff odds of just 8.7%. While that’s substantially higher than the aforementioned odds Toronto has, it still suggests a postseason berth is a remote possibility for Chicago, and it would hardly be a surprise to see them pivot towards selling if they struggle coming out of the All Star break.

Should the Cubs wind up buying, Jansen isn’t the only Blue Jays hitter the club has reported interest in. Last month, it was reported that Chicago was having internal discussions about the possibility of pursuing star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. if the Blue Jays decided to sell. Of course, that reporting came on the heels of GM Ross Atkins very plainly saying that dealing Guerrero, who is controllable through the end of the 2025 campaign, “doesn’t make any sense” for the team to do. While it’s at least theoretically possible the club’s front office changes its stance before the deadline, that possibility seems remote at best as things stand.

Blue Jays Reportedly Expressing Openness To Moving Rentals

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After another tough loss in San Francisco last night, the Blue Jays enter play this evening at 41-50. They’ve dropped nine games behind the Red Sox for the American League’s final postseason spot. Only the Angels, A’s and White Sox have a worse record in the AL.

With less than three weeks until the deadline, time is running out for the Jays to avoid selling. On June 27, GM Ross Atkins called the next few weeks “exceptionally important” in determining the team’s direction. The Jays have gone 5-7 since then.

Unsurprisingly, that looks like it’ll leave the front office to contemplate dealing short-term pieces. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote last night that the Jays have indicated to other teams that they’re willing to move impending free agents. Feinsand suggested that Toronto is still disinterested in dealing players who are under team control beyond this season. Feinsand left open the possibility of Toronto holding onto players if they author a dramatic turnaround in the next couple weeks, but he noted that the Jays “are prepared to sell” if they don’t reverse course quickly. Including tonight, they have 16 games until the deadline.

A reluctance to trade controllable players aligns with Atkins’ prior public comments. The GM said in early June that moving Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette — each of whom are slated for free agency at the end of next season — “just doesn’t make any sense for us.” While Atkins didn’t categorically shoot down the idea of moving any other players, a reluctance to deal Guerrero and Bichette indicates the team expects to rebound in 2025.

Even if the Jays focus trade discussions on rentals, the roster could look very different in a few weeks. Toronto has six impending free agents, each of whom has a realistic chance to go. That group is headlined by Yusei Kikuchi, who slots alongside Jack Flaherty as the top rental starting pitchers who should be available.

Kikuchi is coming off one of the best outings of his career. The lefty set a personal high with 13 strikeouts over 7 1/3 innings of two-run ball in San Francisco yesterday. He has allowed an even four earned runs per nine through 101 1/3 innings. Kikuchi has fanned an above-average 26.1% of opponents while cutting his walks to a career-low 5.4% clip. Home runs have always been an issue for the veteran southpaw, particularly against right-handed hitters. Yet Kikuchi is working on a second straight season with an ERA around 4.00 with plus strikeout and walk numbers.

This is the final season of his three-year, $36MM free agent deal. The contract was frontloaded, so Kikuchi is making just $10MM this year. Around $3.28MM would remain at the deadline. That should be affordable for most contenders. Kikuchi would be a realistic qualifying offer candidate if the Jays don’t trade him. If Toronto exceeds the luxury tax threshold, they’d only receive a compensation pick after the fourth round in the 2025 draft if a qualified free agent signs elsewhere.

That’s also a potential factor for Danny Jansen, who is the top impending free agent catcher. Jansen’s free agent and trade appeal looked a lot stronger as recently as a month ago. The righty-hitting backstop carried a .287/.371/.535 batting line into June. He has hit an ill-timed power outage in the past six weeks. Jansen has gone without a homer while running a .122/.241/.162 slash since the end of May. His season line (.217/.315/.377 over 203 plate appearances) is exactly league average, as measured by wRC+.

Despite the slump, the Jays should still get calls on Jansen. There aren’t likely to be many starting caliber catchers available this summer. Jansen has shown that kind of talent throughout his career, though his value has generally been undercut by a lengthy injury history. Even if he’s not currently in top form, Jansen has excellent strike zone discipline with double-digit home run power. He’s a quality receiving catcher but doesn’t have a great arm. The 29-year-old is making $5.2MM in his final arbitration season.

Kevin Kiermaier and Justin Turner are both playing on one-year free agent deals, respectively valued at $10.5MM and $13MM. They’re established veterans who could generate some interest for a bench role on a contender. The Jays would likely need to pay down most of the money to facilitate a trade of either player, though. Kiermaier remains an excellent defensive center fielder but has a career-worst .187/.232/.295 batting line over 181 plate appearances. The 39-year-old Turner is hitting .240/.347/.360 with five homers over 294 trips to the plate. He is working mostly as a designated hitter with sporadic reps at the corner infield spots.

Relievers Yimi García and Trevor Richards are the final two impending free agents. García, who is playing on a $6MM salary, got out to an excellent start to the year. He fired 28 innings of 2.57 ERA ball with a huge 34.6% strikeout rate over 27 appearances. An elbow issue sent him to the injured list in mid-June. García is on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Buffalo. Keegan Matheson of MLB.com tweets that neck stiffness has delayed him but the Jays are hopeful that García will be ready for reinstatement this weekend.

Richards, who is making just $2.15MM in his last arbitration season, owns a 3.40 earned run average in 47 2/3 frames. The changeup specialist has fanned a quarter of opponents against a 9% walk rate. Richards doesn’t have eye-popping velocity and this year’s 10% swinging strike rate is the lowest of his career. He’s best suited for a middle relief role but should have some appeal on the trade market as an affordable multi-inning arm.

Moving the bulk or all of those players could have significant financial ramifications for the organization. RosterResource estimates the organization’s luxury tax commitments just north of $247MM. Cot’s Baseball Contracts calculates the team’s CBT mark closer to $250MM. Those outside projections put the team $10-13MM above this year’s $237MM base tax threshold. An organization’s competitive balance tax number is calculated at the end of the season.

If the Jays commit to selling, they could get close to or below the tax line. They should be able to offload the prorated portions of Kikuchi’s $12MM and Jansen’s $5.2MM respective CBT numbers. If García is healthy, they could probably find a taker for what remains of his contract. Depending on what portion of the Kiermaier and Turner money another team might be willing to eat, there may be a path to getting their CBT number under $237MM. That would reset the team’s tax bracket and free them from the escalating penalties as a repeat payor if they decided to spend back above the tax line in 2025.

Getting under the CBT marker would be much easier if the Jays were willing to go beyond the rentals. Guerrero, Bichette, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chad Green are all on notable arbitration or multi-year salaries. Moving anyone from that group would make a return to competitiveness in 2025 more of an uphill battle, of course. It doesn’t seem that’s an avenue the front office is eager to take. It remains to be seen if they’ll more seriously consider that kind of roster overhaul over the coming weeks.

Danny Jansen Is Pulling Away From The Rest Of Next Winter’s Catching Class

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Last offseason's free agent catching class was very weak. Only three players received a multi-year deal, all of which checked in at two years. Mitch Garver is more of a designated hitter, while Tom Murphy and Victor Caratini are backups. There wasn't a top target for teams looking to the open market for a #1 option.

Next winter's group looks similarly light, with one exception. It's comprised mostly by players in their mid-30s who are generally better suited for backup roles. Yet unlike last winter, there's one player emerging as the clear top of the class. Danny Jansen has been a very good player for the last three years. He has taken things up another level through this season's first couple months. If he can stay healthy, he'll be well-positioned for the top free agent catching contract since Willson Contreras topped $87MM two years ago.

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