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Rays Had Interest In Travis d’Arnaud

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The Rays had interest in a reunion with veteran catcher Travis d’Arnaud prior to his deal with the Angels, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.

d’Arnaud, 36 in February, spent the past half decade in Atlanta but was a member of the Rays during the 2019 season, when he played 92 games for the club as part of a catching tandem with Mike Zunino and was a key part of the club’s first trip to the postseason since 2013. He split time between catching and playing first base with Tampa, and hit a solid .263/.323/.459 with 16 homers in just 365 trips to the plate. That production was good for a wRC+ of 109, and his excellent work with the Rays served as a springboard for him as he entered free agency that winter.

Of course, d’Arnaud ultimately landed with the Braves prior to the 2020 season and has spent the past five seasons as a fixture of the lineup in Atlanta, catching more games for them than any other player in each season except 2023, when Sean Murphy took over primary catching duties. The veteran has served as a roughly league average hitter overall during his time with the Braves, slashing .251/.312/.443 with a 106 wRC+. That’s just about in line with his production in 2024 as well, as he slugged 15 homers in 99 games en route to a 103 wRC+ with Atlanta this year. Valuable as d’Arnaud has been for the Braves, the club opted to part ways with him this winter with Murphy expected to be healthy enough to resume primary catching duties next year and catching prospect Drake Baldwin knocking on the door at Triple-A.

A reunion between d’Arnaud and the Rays would have certainly made sense given the club’s obvious hole behind the plate. Ben Rortvedt is on the roster as the club’s primary catcher after he posted a decent 87 wRC+ in 112 games for Tampa in 2024, but the club has parted ways with both Alex Jackson and Rene Pinto already this winter. That leaves them in need of a partner for Rortvedt, and preferably one who can become their primary catcher and allow Rortvedt to shift into a backup role. That’s a bill d’Arnaud would’ve fit nicely, offering a substantial upgrade over the club’s 67 wRC+ from the catcher position in 2024. That wasn’t meant to be, however. Topkin notes that d’Arnaud (a native of Long Beach, CA) was motivated to return to southern California, and his two-year, $12MM pact with the club allowed him to do just that.

Even as d’Arnaud landed elsewhere, however, Topkin suggests that free agency remains the best place for the Rays to find an upgrade behind the plate with few options known to be available on the trade market. Topkin suggests that veteran backstops Danny Jansen and Kyle Higashioka could be the best fits for the Rays’ needs behind the plate. Jansen, 29, struggled badly after a hot start this year but was a reliable presence behind the plate for Toronto in a part-time role from 2021-23 with an excellent .237/.317/.487 slash line (121 wRC+) in 754 trips to the plate over those three seasons. Even in his down 2024 season, he hit a respectable .237/.372/.342 against left-handed pitching this year, making him a solid platoon partner for Rortvedt.

Higashioka, on the other hand, is coming off a strong platform season but has less of a track record offensively and is entering the market at age 34. After spending parts of seven seasons in the Bronx, Higashioka split time with Luis Campusano behind the plate in San Diego this season and flashed impressive power with 17 home runs in just 264 trips to the plate. That incredible pace is somewhat stymied by his lackluster .263 on-base percentage, however, leaving him with a 105 wRC+ overall last year. Higashioka’s contributions were fairly split neutral this year as well, making him perhaps a somewhat less attractive platoon partner for Rortvedt than Jansen.

That said, it’s at least possible that Jansen and Higashioka could wind up out of the Rays’ price range this winter. MLBTR predicted two-year guarantees for both players on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. We predicted that Jansen will land a $20MM guarantee while Higashioka will find a guarantee of $15MM. For a Rays club that RosterResource projects for an $87MM payroll in 2025 after opening the 2024 campaign with a payroll just under $100MM, an annual salary in the $8MM to $10MM range might be difficult for the club to justify when the club could also look to upgrade its outfield mix this winter. Carson Kelly, Elias Diaz, James McCann, and Gary Sanchez are among the other options available this winter who could be had for a lesser guarantee than Jansen and Higashioka if the Rays are looking to save money.

Red Sox Designate Reese McGuire, Chase Anderson For Assignment

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The Red Sox announced a series of roster moves today. Left-hander James Paxton and catcher Danny Jansen, both recently acquired via trade, are active with the club. To make room for those two, the Sox designated right-hander Chase Anderson and backstop Reese McGuire for assignment. That opened two roster spots and they used one of those to claim right-hander Yohan Ramírez, recently designated for assignment by the Dodgers, off waivers.

McGuire, 29, has been with the Red Sox since 2022, generally serving as a light-hitting backup catcher but with strong defensive grades. He has seven Defensive Runs Saved in his career while each of FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Statcast consider him to be a strong framer.

But when he steps out from behind the plate and stands beside it, the results are less impressive. He has a career batting line of .252/.300/.364, which translates to a wRC+ of 79. He’s been even worse this year, with a .209/.280/.295 batting line and 59 wRC+.

That production likely inspired the Sox to go out and get Jansen, pairing him with Connor Wong behind the plate. Since McGuire is out of options, he’s been nudged off the roster entirely. He’s making a fairly modest salary of $1.5MM and can be retained for another year via arbitration. His poor results this year mean that he won’t be in line for a huge raise, so perhaps some club will be interested in him as a glove-first backup.

Anderson, 36, is a veteran who signed a modest $1.25MM deal with the Sox for this year. He’s been in a long relief role with the Sox, tossing 52 innings over 27 appearances. He’s allowed 4.85 earned runs per nine this year. His 8.5% walk rate is around average but his 15.6% strikeout rate and 32.5% ground ball rate are well below par. If it weren’t for a .229 batting average on balls in play, he probably would have allowed more runs across the plate.

The Sox will have until Tuesday’s trade deadline to deal either McGuire or Anderson, though they probably won’t find much interest in either, which could lead to both players being on waivers. Anderson has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency while retaining all of his salary. McGuire has more than three but less than five years of service, meaning he would have the right to elect free agency but would have to forfeit his remaining salary to hit the open market. That means he might stick with the Sox as non-roster depth if he passes through waivers unclaimed.

Ramírez, 29, has tossed 43 2/3 innings this year between the Mets, Orioles and Dodgers, frequently bouncing around due to his out-of-options status. In that time, he has a 5.98 ERA, 22.1% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate and 44.4% ground ball rate. All those rate stats are pretty close to league average, so his .339 BABIP and 60.8% strand rate might be pushing his ERA up a bit. HIs 4.18 FIP and 3.77 SIERA point to better results going forward.

Since the righty is out of options, the Sox will have to install him onto the active roster, meaning someone from their bullpen will have to be optioned whenever he reports to the team. He can be retained for three more seasons after this one if he hangs onto his roster spot.

Red Sox Acquire Danny Jansen

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The Red Sox turned to a division rival to upgrade behind the plate. Boston announced the acquisition of Danny Jansen for a trio of prospects: infielders Cutter Coffey and Eddinson Paulino and pitcher Gilberto Batista. Boston designated reliever Alex Speas for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

Jansen is the second impending free agent traded by Toronto in as many days. They sent righty reliever Yimi García to Seattle yesterday.Yusei Kikuchi is a lock to move by next Tuesday, while Trevor Richards, Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier could go as well. The Jays have thus far been resistant to trading key players whom they control beyond this season.

The 29-year-old Jansen is the top impending free agent catcher. He once seemed to be running away with that title and looked on track for a three- or four-year deal. That’s not the case anymore, as his bat has wilted over the past couple months. Jansen carried a robust .287/.371/.535 slash line into June. He’s hitting .134/.232/.196 in 112 plate appearances since that point. His walk and strikeout rates are right around average, but he only has one home run and four extra-base hits over the past two months.

Jansen’s overall .212/.303/.369 slash is seven percentage points below league average, as measured by wRC+. That’s fine output for a catcher but below Jansen’s typical level. He was an above-average hitter in all three seasons from 2021-23, combining for a .237/.317/.487 mark in 754 trips to the plate. At his best, Jansen blends a patient approach with good contact skills and double-digit homer power. He’s amidst one of the worst stretches of his career but clearly has the talent to perform better than he has over the past couple months.

Before his recent slump, the biggest knock on Jansen was his lack of availability. He has been on the injured list seven times over the past four seasons due to hamstring, oblique, groin, and hand injuries. Some of those were fluke occurrences suffered on a hit-by-pitch, including a season-opening IL stay this year due to a right wrist fracture sustained in Spring Training. Nevertheless, the injuries have dealt a hit to his value. Jansen has only once reached 90 games in a season. His career high sits at 107 games played and 384 plate appearances back in 2019.

The Red Sox have had one of the more productive catching groups in baseball. They entered play today with a .280/.349/.407 slash at the position. That’s almost entirely because of a breakout year from Connor Wong, who’s hitting .299/.362/.440 in 77 games. Backup Reese McGuire owns a .209/.280/.295 mark over 53 contests. McGuire is out of options and could eventually be squeezed off the roster. Boston will otherwise need to carry three catchers.

Jansen is a quality defender who could split time between catcher and designated hitter. He’s also a right-handed hitter, a stated goal for Boston chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, though he’s been more productive against same-handed pitchers than southpaws over the past few years. The Sox may still look for a more traditional lefty masher who could rotate through the outfield.

The Jays and Jansen agreed to a $5.2MM salary for his final arbitration season. Boston will take on roughly $1.8MM. RosterResource calculates their competitive balance tax number just shy of $220MM. Pushing near $222MM still leaves them with roughly $15MM before reaching the base threshold, so the front office should have plenty of financial margin for future pickups.

Toronto continues its look towards the future. Coffey, a right-handed hitting infielder, was a second-round pick out of high school two seasons ago. The 20-year-old has spent the entire year in High-A, where he owns a .238/.321/.463 slash line. Coffey has drilled 14 homers and 12 doubles in 61 games. He’s walking at a solid 10.3% clip against a slightly elevated 24% strikeout rate. He has played mostly third base with some action at both middle infield spots.

Paulino, 22, ranked 18th on Baseball America’s most recent update of Boston prospects. The native of the Dominican Republic is hitting .263/.349/.391 in 69 games at Double-A Portland. He only has three homers but has decent walk (10.4%) and strikeout (21.6%) numbers. Like Coffey, he has spent the majority of his time at third base and handled all three infield spots to the left of first. He’ll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft next offseason. Batista is a 19-year-old rookie ball pitcher who signed out of the Dominican Republic during the 2022-23 international period.

Speas has kicked around the waiver wire all season. Boston grabbed the hard-throwing righty from the Astros at the end of June. He has spent most of the year in Triple-A, where he’s allowing more than 11 earned runs per nine innings. A former second-round pick of the Rangers, Speas has four major league games under his belt. He runs his fastball into the triple digits but he’s walking more than a batter per inning in the minors. The Sox will likely try to sneak him through waivers in the next few days.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Jays and Red Sox were in serious discussion on a Jansen deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN confirmed a deal was in place and was first to report Coffey’s inclusion. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com added that the Jays were receiving three prospects in total.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Cubs Don’t Expect To Be Deadline Buyers

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The Cubs’ deadline trajectory has been an oft-discussed topic over the course of the past few weeks, with the team sitting at or near the bottom of the NL Central but also within striking distance of the final NL Wild Card spot. They’ve ostensibly explored possibilities on both ends of the buy/sell spectrum, showing interest in Toronto catcher Danny Jansen while also reportedly talking with both the Yankees and Red Sox about the potential of a Jameson Taillon trade. The Cubs dropped their first two games coming out of the All-Star break to a D-backs team that’s now tied for the final Wild Card spot, though they dodged a sweep in an extra-inning win Sunday.

While the Cubs are 3.5 games out in the Wild Card hunt, the latest report from Patrick Mooney, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic indicates that the Cubs aren’t planning to be buyers at next week’s trade deadline. That’s not an indication there’ll be any kind of prominent fire sale for the Cubs either, however. Chicago hopes to contend next year and isn’t likely to move players who are under control unless they receive big league-ready talent in return.

As for the Cubs’ slate of rental players, there’s simply not much to peddle to other clubs. Drew Smyly is sitting on an impressive 2.92 ERA in 37 relief innings, but he’s also walked 10.2% of his opponents and is playing on a contract other teams will want to avoid. Smyly is owed the balance of an $8.5MM salary for the current season (about $3.2MM) in addition to a $2.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option for the 2025 season.

Righty Kyle Hendricks is a free agent at season’s end but isn’t going to draw any interest with a $16MM salary and a 6.69 ERA (unless the Cubs eat the entirety of his contract, perhaps). Hector Neris has a 3.74 ERA and 24.2% strikeout rate in 33 2/3 innings — but he’s also walked a career-worst 16.1% of opponents. Neris is playing on a $9MM salary, and his $9MM club option will convert to a player option if he appears in 24 more games this season (60 total). That’s going to turn off any potentially interested parties. Cody Bellinger can become a free agent at season’s end, but he’s on the injured list with a fractured finger and the two opt-out provisions on his three-year deal would’ve made trading him extraordinarily difficult anyhow.

The Athletic’s report at least raises the speculative possibility of listening to offers for starter Justin Steele, though with three-plus seasons of club control remaining, the price would presumably be as high or even higher than the asks for crosstown ace Garrett Crochet (two years of club control remaining) and AL Cy Young front-runner Tarik Skubal (the latter of whom is not expected to be traded). There’s no reason to think the Cubs would outwardly shop Steele, but listening to see if someone steps up with a Juan Soto-esque haul for last year’s fifth-place NL Cy Young finisher is sensible enough.

With regard to Taillon, there’d be some sense to moving him even if the team doesn’t envision a broad-reaching sell-off. In signing any free agent to a long-term deal, a team is most interested in the first couple years of said contract. The 2025-26 seasons will be Taillon’s age-33 and age-34 campaigns. He’ll earn $18MM in each season on his slightly backloaded $68MM deal. Moving him would free up some money to potentially spend on a younger pitcher this offseason — or perhaps on another area of need entirely.

The Cubs control Steele, Shota Imanaga, Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski and Jordan Wicks through at least the 2027 season. Prospects Cade Horton and Brandon Birdsell are rising quickly through the system. There’s some depth from which to deal, and a Taillon trade could bring in talent, shed future payroll and reduce future luxury tax obligations. Taillon wouldn’t command nearly the same type of haul as Steele for a number of reasons (age, salary, general talent level), but there aren’t many arms available so the Cubs could conceivably take advantage of that shortage and see what the market bears.

It’s worth emphasizing, too, that most teams’ plans remain pretty fluid this time of year. While teams facing a gaps of eight, nine, ten or more games in their respective postseason pursuits are sure to focus on selling (just as clubs in the opposite position will primarily focus on adding), nearly half the teams in baseball exist in a relative purgatory between those two ends of the spectrum. There’s currently a three-team tie for the third NL Wild Card spot (Mets, D-backs, Padres), and another five teams are within four games of that final spot — the Cubs among them. In the American League, there are four teams within six games of the final Wild Card spot.

For instance, if the Cubs snapped off six or seven straight wins beginning today, they’d presumably be far more open to the idea of adding some pieces. That’s particularly true because their next three games come against the division-leading Brewers. But a win streak of that nature is always a long shot, and it’s plenty notable that for the time being, Chicago isn’t viewing itself as a team that will trade even lower-caliber minor league talent in exchange for some marginal rental upgrades. Time will tell whether the players on the field can push the front office to take a more aggressive stance, but right now it seems likely the Cubs are in for a relatively quiet deadline.

Cubs Reportedly Interested In Danny Jansen

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The Cubs have expressed interest in Blue Jays catcher Danny Jansen, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. It’s unclear how serious discussions between the sides have become at this point.

It would hardly be a surprise to see Toronto part ways with Jansen prior to the deadline on July 30. The club has experienced a freefall in the standings that has seen the club drop to just 43-52, 14 games out of the AL East and 9.5 games out of a playoff spot. That massive deficit in the standings has left the club’s playoff odds (according to Fangraphs) at just 1.6%. Given those dismal odds, it’s only natural that the club is reportedly “expressing openness” to moving on from rental players this summer.

Jansen, 29, is one of the club’s more intriguing rental players. Initially drafted in the 16th round back in 2013 by the Blue Jays, the Wisconsin native made his big league debut with Toronto back in 2018 and generally struggled at the plate early in his career. He carried a lackluster .208/.297/.370 slash line (79 wRC+) into the 2021 season. Fortunately, in 2021 Toronto began to lean less heavily on Jansen behind the plate due to the arrival of youngster Alejandro Kirk. From 2021-23, Jansen enjoyed a resurgence on offense while being counted on for an average of just 76 games a year. In 754 trips to the plate across those three seasons, he saw his wRC+ jump to 121 as he slashed a solid .237/.317/.487 while clubbing 43 home runs.

Early in the 2024 campaign, Jansen appeared to be on track for the best season of his career as he was slashing an incredible .287/.371/.535 through the end of May. He struck out just 15.5% of the time in those 116 trips to the plate while walking at a 12.1% clip and crushing five homers. Paired with generally strong defensive grades behind the plate throughout his career, that figured to make him an extremely attractive free agent this winter, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored for Front Office subscribers at the time.

Things have come off the rails a bit for Jansen since then, however. In 91 trips to the plate since the start of June, Jansen has posted a lackluster .141/.253/.218 across 26 games. An eye-popping .164 BABIP that’s all but certain to enjoy some positive regression indicates that there’s some reason for optimism when looking at Jansen’s numbers during this recent slump, as does the fact that Jansen’s plate discipline numbers (18.9% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate) remain impressive. Even so, it’s hard to imagine the Jays getting anywhere close to the trade return they might have had Jansen maintained his early season production now that he’s hitting a roughly league average .223/.319/.397 (103 wRC+) for the season.

Even so, it’s not hard to see why the Cubs would be interested in Jansen’s services. The club has struggled somewhat on offense this year with a collective wRC+ of 102 that ranks 16th in the majors this year, even in spite of excellent seasons from corner bats Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, and Michael Busch. The most obvious culprit for those struggles at the dish in Chicago is the players they’re using behind it, as Cubs catchers have slashed a pathetic .180/.227/.264 this year. That translates to a wRC+ of 39 that ranks 29th in the majors ahead of only the lowly Marlins.

It’s possible the Cubs would be willing to stomach that brutal offense production if they were getting elite defense behind the plate, but youngster Miguel Amaya has been worth -2 runs according to Statcast’s Fielding Run Value, and veteran Yan Gomes was performing even worse before being replaced by Tomas Nido after he was released by the Mets last month. Nido has looked good behind the plate but has hit a ghastly .135/.154/.189 in 13 games with the Cubs. He doesn’t have much of a track record to lean on, either, as a seven-game stint in 2020 is the only time in his career he’s posted a wRC+ higher than 86.

Those woes behind the plate make the Cubs an obvious fit for Jansen’s services, although it’s fair to wonder if Chicago will be in position to buy by the time the deadline rolls around. After all, the team is currently five games below .500 (46-51) and in dead last in the NL Central. They’re only 4.5 games out of the final NL Wild Card spot, but Fangraphs gives them playoff odds of just 8.7%. While that’s substantially higher than the aforementioned odds Toronto has, it still suggests a postseason berth is a remote possibility for Chicago, and it would hardly be a surprise to see them pivot towards selling if they struggle coming out of the All Star break.

Should the Cubs wind up buying, Jansen isn’t the only Blue Jays hitter the club has reported interest in. Last month, it was reported that Chicago was having internal discussions about the possibility of pursuing star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. if the Blue Jays decided to sell. Of course, that reporting came on the heels of GM Ross Atkins very plainly saying that dealing Guerrero, who is controllable through the end of the 2025 campaign, “doesn’t make any sense” for the team to do. While it’s at least theoretically possible the club’s front office changes its stance before the deadline, that possibility seems remote at best as things stand.

Blue Jays Reportedly Expressing Openness To Moving Rentals

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After another tough loss in San Francisco last night, the Blue Jays enter play this evening at 41-50. They’ve dropped nine games behind the Red Sox for the American League’s final postseason spot. Only the Angels, A’s and White Sox have a worse record in the AL.

With less than three weeks until the deadline, time is running out for the Jays to avoid selling. On June 27, GM Ross Atkins called the next few weeks “exceptionally important” in determining the team’s direction. The Jays have gone 5-7 since then.

Unsurprisingly, that looks like it’ll leave the front office to contemplate dealing short-term pieces. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote last night that the Jays have indicated to other teams that they’re willing to move impending free agents. Feinsand suggested that Toronto is still disinterested in dealing players who are under team control beyond this season. Feinsand left open the possibility of Toronto holding onto players if they author a dramatic turnaround in the next couple weeks, but he noted that the Jays “are prepared to sell” if they don’t reverse course quickly. Including tonight, they have 16 games until the deadline.

A reluctance to trade controllable players aligns with Atkins’ prior public comments. The GM said in early June that moving Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette — each of whom are slated for free agency at the end of next season — “just doesn’t make any sense for us.” While Atkins didn’t categorically shoot down the idea of moving any other players, a reluctance to deal Guerrero and Bichette indicates the team expects to rebound in 2025.

Even if the Jays focus trade discussions on rentals, the roster could look very different in a few weeks. Toronto has six impending free agents, each of whom has a realistic chance to go. That group is headlined by Yusei Kikuchi, who slots alongside Jack Flaherty as the top rental starting pitchers who should be available.

Kikuchi is coming off one of the best outings of his career. The lefty set a personal high with 13 strikeouts over 7 1/3 innings of two-run ball in San Francisco yesterday. He has allowed an even four earned runs per nine through 101 1/3 innings. Kikuchi has fanned an above-average 26.1% of opponents while cutting his walks to a career-low 5.4% clip. Home runs have always been an issue for the veteran southpaw, particularly against right-handed hitters. Yet Kikuchi is working on a second straight season with an ERA around 4.00 with plus strikeout and walk numbers.

This is the final season of his three-year, $36MM free agent deal. The contract was frontloaded, so Kikuchi is making just $10MM this year. Around $3.28MM would remain at the deadline. That should be affordable for most contenders. Kikuchi would be a realistic qualifying offer candidate if the Jays don’t trade him. If Toronto exceeds the luxury tax threshold, they’d only receive a compensation pick after the fourth round in the 2025 draft if a qualified free agent signs elsewhere.

That’s also a potential factor for Danny Jansen, who is the top impending free agent catcher. Jansen’s free agent and trade appeal looked a lot stronger as recently as a month ago. The righty-hitting backstop carried a .287/.371/.535 batting line into June. He has hit an ill-timed power outage in the past six weeks. Jansen has gone without a homer while running a .122/.241/.162 slash since the end of May. His season line (.217/.315/.377 over 203 plate appearances) is exactly league average, as measured by wRC+.

Despite the slump, the Jays should still get calls on Jansen. There aren’t likely to be many starting caliber catchers available this summer. Jansen has shown that kind of talent throughout his career, though his value has generally been undercut by a lengthy injury history. Even if he’s not currently in top form, Jansen has excellent strike zone discipline with double-digit home run power. He’s a quality receiving catcher but doesn’t have a great arm. The 29-year-old is making $5.2MM in his final arbitration season.

Kevin Kiermaier and Justin Turner are both playing on one-year free agent deals, respectively valued at $10.5MM and $13MM. They’re established veterans who could generate some interest for a bench role on a contender. The Jays would likely need to pay down most of the money to facilitate a trade of either player, though. Kiermaier remains an excellent defensive center fielder but has a career-worst .187/.232/.295 batting line over 181 plate appearances. The 39-year-old Turner is hitting .240/.347/.360 with five homers over 294 trips to the plate. He is working mostly as a designated hitter with sporadic reps at the corner infield spots.

Relievers Yimi García and Trevor Richards are the final two impending free agents. García, who is playing on a $6MM salary, got out to an excellent start to the year. He fired 28 innings of 2.57 ERA ball with a huge 34.6% strikeout rate over 27 appearances. An elbow issue sent him to the injured list in mid-June. García is on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Buffalo. Keegan Matheson of MLB.com tweets that neck stiffness has delayed him but the Jays are hopeful that García will be ready for reinstatement this weekend.

Richards, who is making just $2.15MM in his last arbitration season, owns a 3.40 earned run average in 47 2/3 frames. The changeup specialist has fanned a quarter of opponents against a 9% walk rate. Richards doesn’t have eye-popping velocity and this year’s 10% swinging strike rate is the lowest of his career. He’s best suited for a middle relief role but should have some appeal on the trade market as an affordable multi-inning arm.

Moving the bulk or all of those players could have significant financial ramifications for the organization. RosterResource estimates the organization’s luxury tax commitments just north of $247MM. Cot’s Baseball Contracts calculates the team’s CBT mark closer to $250MM. Those outside projections put the team $10-13MM above this year’s $237MM base tax threshold. An organization’s competitive balance tax number is calculated at the end of the season.

If the Jays commit to selling, they could get close to or below the tax line. They should be able to offload the prorated portions of Kikuchi’s $12MM and Jansen’s $5.2MM respective CBT numbers. If García is healthy, they could probably find a taker for what remains of his contract. Depending on what portion of the Kiermaier and Turner money another team might be willing to eat, there may be a path to getting their CBT number under $237MM. That would reset the team’s tax bracket and free them from the escalating penalties as a repeat payor if they decided to spend back above the tax line in 2025.

Getting under the CBT marker would be much easier if the Jays were willing to go beyond the rentals. Guerrero, Bichette, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chad Green are all on notable arbitration or multi-year salaries. Moving anyone from that group would make a return to competitiveness in 2025 more of an uphill battle, of course. It doesn’t seem that’s an avenue the front office is eager to take. It remains to be seen if they’ll more seriously consider that kind of roster overhaul over the coming weeks.

Danny Jansen Is Pulling Away From The Rest Of Next Winter’s Catching Class

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Last offseason's free agent catching class was very weak. Only three players received a multi-year deal, all of which checked in at two years. Mitch Garver is more of a designated hitter, while Tom Murphy and Victor Caratini are backups. There wasn't a top target for teams looking to the open market for a #1 option.

Next winter's group looks similarly light, with one exception. It's comprised mostly by players in their mid-30s who are generally better suited for backup roles. Yet unlike last winter, there's one player emerging as the clear top of the class. Danny Jansen has been a very good player for the last three years. He has taken things up another level through this season's first couple months. If he can stay healthy, he'll be well-positioned for the top free agent catching contract since Willson Contreras topped $87MM two years ago.

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Blue Jays Notes: Romano, Jansen, Serven, Manoah

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The Blue Jays concluded their season-opening 10-game road trip with an 8-3 loss today against the Yankees.  Starter Bowden Francis lasted three innings, pitching well in the first two frames but then surrendering a Giancarlo Stanton grand slam as part of a five-run inning for New York.  The Jays had their share of offensive chances but left 11 men on base and went 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position.  Toronto’s .197 batting average with RISP is the third-lowest in baseball this season, as the Jays’ struggles at cashing in runners have seemingly continued (and even worsened) from 2023.

Some injury updates from the Blue Jays’ roster…

  • Jordan Romano is set to throw a live batting practice session on Monday, manager John Schneider told Sportnet’s Shi Davidi (X link) and other reporters.  The Jays closer started the season on the 15-day injured list due to elbow inflammation but has steadily been ramping up his work and looks to be heading towards a rehab assignment.  The absences of Romano and Erik Swanson have left the bullpen short-handed, though Swanson could potentially be activated as early as Tuesday.
  • Schneider also provided an update on Danny Jansen, who is facing pitches from a high-velocity machine as he work his way back from a small fracture in his right wrist.  Jansen has yet to resume catching duties, though some consideration was given to the idea of Jansen catching a Single-A rehab outing today.
  • With Jansen out, Brian Serven has been acting as the Blue Jays’ backup catcher, though Serven had a bit of an injury scare himself in Saturday’s game with the Yankees.  As Davidi relates in another piece, X-rays were negative on Serven’s left hand after Anthony Volpe’s checked swing hit Serven’s glove on what appeared to be a third strike.  (Volpe was awarded first base on a catcher’s interference call, leading Schneider to describe the unusual play as “almost like a loophole” in the interference rules.)  Serven finished the game but said he couldn’t feel his left hand for the rest of the game.  Alejandro Kirk was behind the plate today as Serven didn’t play, but if Serven also has to miss time due to his hand issue, the Jays might to go further down the depth chart.  Isiah Kiner-Falefa is a former catcher could fill in as a backup in a pinch, and Payton Henry is catching at Triple-A but would need a spot created on the 40-man roster.
  • Alek Manoah began a rehab assignment with a start at Single-A Dunedin today, with some rough results.  As related by MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson, Manoah threw 58 pitches over 1 2/3 innings, allowing seven runs (six earned) while also hitting a batter and issuing four walks.  Between this outing and a similarly shaky performance in his lone Spring Training performance, Manoah’s recovery from shoulder soreness is only part of the story as Manoah is still seemingly miles away from his pre-2023 form.  An All-Star and a burgeoning ace in 2022, Manoah stumbled badly during a 2023 season that saw him battle severe control issues, deal with some injuries, and spend a good chunk of the year in the minors.  It isn’t clear what the next step in Manoah’s rehab might be, as Matheson notes that today’s outing could delay the eventual plan to move Manoah’s rehab to Triple-A Buffalo.

Danny Jansen Diagnosed With Small Fracture In Right Wrist

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Blue Jays catcher Danny Jansen has been diagnosed with a fracture of the pisiform bone in his right wrist, manager John Schneider revealed to reporters today (X links via Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). He was hit by a pitch during the Jays’ Grapefruit League game earlier this week. The team currently expects him to miss a “couple weeks,” though he has a follow-up appointment today that could reveal more information.

That could point to a season-opening stint on the injured list, though the team has yet to specifically state as much. Sportsnet’s Hazel Mae tweets that the Jays will likely lean on non-roster catchers Payton Henry and Brian Serven to back up starting catcher Alejandro Kirk in the interim. If Jansen indeed opens the season on the injured list, Toronto will need to clear a 40-man roster spot to select the contract of either player.

It’s not an ideal start in what’ll be Jansen’s walk year before free agency. The soon-to-be 29-year-old backstop has been a steadily above-average offensive contributor — particularly relative to his position — over the past three seasons but routinely been hit with injuries along the way.

Since 2021, Jansen carries a stout .237/.317/.487 batting line with 43 home runs in 754 trips to the plate. He’s walked at a respectable 8.6% clip along the way, and his 19.9% strikeout rate is a few ticks lower than the league average. By measure of wRC+, Jansen’s been 21% better than an average hitter over the past three seasons. Considering the average catcher has been about 11-12% worse than average at the plate, Jansen’s contributions with the bat are all the more impressive.

From a defensive standpoint, Jansen is solid. He typically draws average or slightly better marks for his pitch framing at both FanGraphs and Statcast. He’s been a bit below average in terms of controlling the running game (career 22% caught-stealing rate), but Statcast rates Jansen (and Kirk, for that matter) as one of the game’s best at blocking balls in the dirt.

Both Henry and Serven joined the Jays organization in the offseason. The former inked a minor league deal after spending his career to date with the Brewers and Marlins. He hit .294/.341/.454 in 255 Triple-A games last season with the Brewers. He’s yet to make his MLB debut. Serven was a waiver claim who’s played his entire career in the Rockies organization. He appeared in 62 games with the 2022 Rockies and another 11 games last year, batting a combined .195/.248/.314 in 228 trips to the plate. In 534 career Triple-A plate appearances, he’s a .238/.305/.450 hitter.

Blue Jays Notes: Manoah, Tiedemann, Martinez, Jansen

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With Spring Training now officially under way for the Blue Jays, right-hander Alek Manoah recently spoke to reporters as he looks to put a brutal 2023 campaign behind him. As noted by Shi Davidi of Sportsnet, Manoah is looking to put last year behind him.

“When your team is going to a playoff and you’re not there, it’s tough,” Manoah said, per Davidi. “but talking about 2023, for me is kind of not worth it. It’s in the past right now for me, which is really good.”

It’s not a surprise that Manoah prefers to leave his 2023 in the past. After a breakout season in 2022 where the right-hander pitched to a 2.24 ERA in 196 2/3 innings of work en route to an All Star appearance and third place finish in AL Cy Young award voting, Manoah struggled to a 5.87 ERA with a 6.01 FIP across 19 starts for the Blue Jays last year. Rather than reflect on his disastrous season, Davidi notes that Manoah spent the offseason overhauling his training regime and nutrition plan.

While it’s anyone’s guess how the game’s latest “best shape of his life” rebound candidate will perform on the mound this year, the 26-year-old hurler is seemingly to be penciled into the fifth spot in the club’s rotation behind Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, and Yusei Kikuchi. Manoah has gotten rave reviews from others around camp this spring, including Gausman. The veteran ace told reporters (including Davidi) that his teammate “looks a lot more like himself than he ever did last year,” adding that he believes Manoah may not have been fully prepared for the impact his 2022 workload would have on him the following year.

Even as Manoah appears to be the primary candidate to round out the club’s rotation, he’s not without competition. Most notably, the Blue Jays signed right-hander Yariel Rodriguez to a five-year deal this winter. Rodriguez, 27 next month, was dominant as a reliever in Japan’s NPB but spent the 2023 campaign building himself back up to be a starting pitcher, with Toronto brass suggesting that his presence provides the club with “starting depth” that can fill multiple roles on the team. While those comments hardly indicate that Rodriguez is a favorite for a spot in the Opening Day rotation, it’s fair to wonder if the Jays could reconsider their stance if Manoah’s struggles continue throughout the spring.

Another possible alternative to Manoah in the rotation is Ricky Tiedemann, the club’s top pitching prospect. The 21-year-old southpaw made just 15 starts last year across all levels of the minor leagues, posting a 3.68 ERA in 44 innings of work, but managed to reach the Triple-A level and has long been seen as a possible contributor at the big league level for the club this season. Club manager John Schneider recently confirmed that to reporters (including MLB Network’s Jon Morosi), noting that the Jays already have a plan in place regarding Tiedemann’s workload for 2024 and that the club’s preference is for those innings to come at the big league level, provided Tiedemann proves himself ready for the opportunity.

Despite his limited workload as a professional since being drafted by the Blue Jays in the third round of the 2021 draft, Tiedemann enters the 2024 campaign as a consensus top-30 prospect in the sport and on the shortlist of the game’s very best pitching prospects alongside the likes of Andrew Painter of the Phillies, Cade Horton of the Cubs, and Kyle Harrison of the Giants. While it seems unlikely the Blue Jays would lean on Tiedemann for anything close to 30 starts this year given his minimal experience, it’s certainly possible that Tiedemann could force the issue and make it to Toronto fairly early in the season if the Jays want to maximize his big league opportunities.

Also looking to establish himself at the big league level this season is infield prospect Orelvis Martinez. The 22-year-old enjoyed a solid season in 2023 as he slashed .243/.340/.496 in 125 games split between the Double- and Triple-A levels last year. While Martinez has spent the vast majority of his professional career on the left side of the infield, he saw increasing time at second base last year and Morosi adds that Schneider has indicated he’ll continue to focus on the keystone headed into the 2024 season. There should be opportunities for Martinez to work himself into the club’s infield mix, as following the departures of Matt Chapman and Whit Merrifield via free agency the club has no certain starter at either second or third base. The likes of Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Justin Turner, Davis Schneider, Cavan Biggio, and Santiago Espinal all figure to spend time on the dirt for the club this winter alongside stars Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

While the likes of Manoah, Tiedemann, and Martinez all figure to impact the club for years to come, the same can’t currently be said for catcher Danny Jansen, who’s entering his final year under club control in 2024. Jansen recently spoke to reporters (including MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson) regarding his future, noting that he and the club have “had conversations” about the possibility of him remaining in Toronto following the 2024 campaign. While Jansen made clear that “he’s not closing any doors” on a return, his focus is on the coming season at this point.

The backstop, who turns 29 in April, has enjoyed something of a breakout over the past two seasons, slashing .242/.324/.493 combined with strong defense behind the plate. That offense is good for a 127 wRC+, a figure which ranks fourth in the majors among catchers over that timeframe behind only Adley Rutschman, Willson Contreras, and William Contreras. That being said, Jansen has appeared in just 158 games over the past two seasons due to a combination of injury woes and the presence of 25-year-old backstop Alejandro Kirk, who has gotten the lion’s share of playing time each of the past two seasons in Toronto.

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