Dallas Keuchel

Precisely why Dallas Keuchel remains unemployed isn’t entirely known or even knowable. Perhaps he squandered early market opportunities with too high an asking price. It may be that he’s still holding out unrealistic demands. On the other side, clubs are arguably far too willing to roll the dice on fresh young arms. Perhaps they’re too determined to maintain mid-season and future financial flexibility at the expense of immediate, season-long improvements.

[RELATED: Historical Market Price Points For Dallas Keuchel]

The market has been quiet. Last we heard any news on Keuchel, agent Scott Boras said that the accomplished hurler was building up arm strength just as he would have in a team’s camp. While the market situation remains extremely foggy, Boras added that offers were still coming in. Keuchel still isn’t willing to take a “pillow contract,” Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets today, so it seems he’s still holding out hope for a multi-year arrangement of some kind. He could follow the Kendrys Morales approach of waiting until the June draft to sign, thus shedding the requirement that a signing team surrender draft compensation, but that’s hardly the preferred means of procuring a desirable, long-term deal.

The real question remains: what teams are really motivated to go after Keuchel? We’ve looked previously at the market setting for the other unsigned hurler of note, Craig Kimbrel. Now we’ll do so with respect to Keuchel, taking a somewhat different angle of approach. While both are entering age-31 seasons in search of big money, with potential luxury tax ramifications for the signing team, their different pitching roles make for different market circumstances.

Rather than trying to create labels or categories, we’ll just run through the possibilities in narrative form. Here’s how the market breaks down …

It’s rarely wise to rule out teams entirely, but some teams lack the outlook and resources to be worthy of further consideration. The Orioles and Marlins can safely be scratched off the list of possibilities. It’d be nothing short of shocking to see the Royals make such a move when the club is already pushing high-priced starters into the bullpen. While the Giants and Rangers have much greater spending capacity, they’ve already got staffs full of veterans that include some significant financial commitments. The Tigers also seem to have already placed their bets for the coming season.

Neither is it really possible to envision a path for certain teams that have real hopes of winning seasons in 2019. The Indians and Pirates are low-budget contenders that don’t have the need to spend in the rotation; the Cubs and Red Sox are big-budget contenders that have full starting units and have probably already committed their 2019 payroll.

It’s not much easier to see a variety of other contending teams as Keuchel pursuers, though as we go down the line it becomes somewhat easier to imagine a move. The Boras connection to the Nationals means you can never say never, but the organization wants to stay below the luxury line and already has promised rotation spots to give hurlers. While some injuries arguably create an opening for the Dodgers, they still have ample options on hand and it’s tough to imagine them shoe-horning yet another pitcher onto their 40-man.  Similarly, the Yankees have options — a trio of young arms holding down the fort with Luis Severino, CC Sabathia, and Gio Gonzalez waiting in the wings — but could still stand to stamp out some uncertainty. In years past, one or more of these clubs might have shrugged and thrown a stack of cash at Keuchel. It doesn’t feel very likely in this climate, particularly with the luxury tax implications for all of these clubs.

Several lesser-spending teams arguably make more sense on paper, but still feel unlikely. The Rockies, Reds, Cardinals, and Brewers could upgrade a rotation spot and boost their depth by adding Keuchel, but all likely feel it wouldn’t be enough of an improvement to warrant the cost with other, more pressing areas of need on their rosters.

Perhaps there’s a bit more cause for a pair of other National League clubs to consider a bold move. Like the above-mentioned teams, the value of a win is quite high given the densely packed divisions. But there’s a stronger case for Keuchel in particular for the Mets and Phillies. Both organizations have already already spent big on veterans. The former could bite the bullet and knock Jason Vargas out of the rotation. The latter could plug the higher-floor Keuchel into the starting unit while deploying Vince Velasquez as a potentially fascinating multi-inning reliever.

There’s at least an argument to be made for some other teams to take a look at the right price, even if the move would largely be future-oriented. Several American League clubs are lining up for a 2020 push — and surely also realize there’s at least some opening to surprise in the current year. At the right price point, Keuchel could be a value on a multi-year deal. The Mariners are always tinkering. The White Sox missed on their biggest targets. The Blue Jays added a few low-cost veterans but have tons of rotation uncertainty now and in the future. And on the NL side, the Diamondbacks are attempting to stay competitive while undergoing some roster changes.

Here’s about where things start to get interesting. The Rays already spent on Charlie Morton, but could consider Keuchel on much the same theory if the deal is short enough in length. While the Twins picked up Martin Perez to fill out their rotation, and have some younger depth pieces as well, the teams still has only meager future commitments and a big opportunity in the division.Neither of these teams really wants to spend on Keuchel past the present season, but there’s an argument that both should strongly consider making an exception.

Hopping over to the AL West, there are three clubs that make some degree of sense. The incumbent Astros know Keuchel better than anyone. They have kept in touch all winter long and remain an obvious fall-back spot, though it doesn’t seem they’ll move up their offer with so many internal options still available. The Angels and Athletics have ample need in the rotation. The public indications are that they’re fresh out of spending availability, but both organizations could justify stretching for Keuchel at this time.

Perhaps no teams in baseball make greater sense, though, than the Padres and Braves. It’s already an eye-popping offseason in San Diego, with Manny Machado coming aboard and top prospects Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack making the Opening Roster, but the club’s rotation is still loaded with uncertainty. The Atlanta organization is defending a division title against three strong adversaries, has made it clear it has financial resources available now and in the future, and has seen several notable health questions arise in camp.

It’s hard to call any team in baseball an obvious favorite at this point. An injury could change the field quite a bit, though it’s anyone’s guess whether and when that might occur and Keuchel’s appeal as an immediate option will not exactly grow as he sits on the sidelines. It’s a tough spot for the veteran.

By this point, the narrative on Dallas Keuchel is familiar to all: he’s a former Cy Young winner who recently turned 31. He wasn’t at his best last year, but was one of only 13 pitchers to top 200 frames in 2018 and turned in a productive 3.74 ERA. Statcast felt he was actually a bit unlucky, crediting him with a .290 xwOBA-against that lagged the observed .306 wOBA-against.

Keuchel has always thrived on grounders, weak contact, and low walk rates, with middling velocity and generally unexceptional swinging-strike capabilities. At times in the past, Keuchel has been a true groundball monster (he was at a good but not great 53.7% last year) and has generated more strikeouts (up to 23.7% in 2015). While the theory has been proffered recently that Keuchel’s lack of velo is a major factor, it actually seems mostly encouraging that he throws just as hard as ever and that his velocity trended up over the course of the 2018 season. It seems fair to say he’s mostly the same type of pitcher, but not the best version of himself — as you’d probably expect at this age.

We knew all that entering the offseason, of course. It was never questioned that he’d turn down the qualifying offer and not be all that bothered by the draft compensation requirements that attached to his free agency. So how do we explain the apparent value disconnect that has to this point kept Keuchel from signing? Some thought Keuchel’s track record would propel him to a nine-figure contract, perhaps overestimating the allure of his Cy Young past. Reports indicate that agent Scott Boras set out seeking a five or even six-season contract. That level of interest simply hasn’t been there. It’s not altogether surprising. Here at MLBTR, we guessed he’d be capped at a four-year deal — but still anticipated the bidding going over $20MM annually.

Given where things stand, I thought it would be interesting to look at some recent contractual outcomes to see how they relate to Keuchel’s case and the changing free agent market. The takeaway is that Keuchel seems likely to fall somewhere on a spectrum of outcomes that we’ve seen before in generally similar situations.

5+ Year Contracts

If you were making a case for Keuchel to get into that nine-figure range, you wouldn’t start with Patrick Corbin, who did so earlier this winter. The much younger lefty was just in a different situation. But you could look to the not-so-distant past and see Yu Darvish, who got six and $126MM last winter despite being about half a year older than Keuchel is now. The difference? Darvish has long carried premium K/BB numbers and was seen as an elite talent. He was also the best pitcher and arguably the best free agent in his class. His sixth year didn’t add much in the way of guaranteed money, so much as it spread the costs and luxury tax hit.

There’s a history of lengthy deals before that, as well. There was quite a run on starters in the winter of 2015-16 — even at the second tier of the market. Jordan Zimmermann ($110MM), Jeff Samardzija ($90MM), Mike Leake ($80MM), Wei-Yin Chen ($80MM) and Ian Kennedy ($70MM) all got five-year contracts while the three best hurlers took down a combined haul of over half a billion dollars.

Those halcyon days are over, needless to say. It probably doesn’t help that every one of those contracts seems regrettable in retrospect. Getting to that five-year range just never seemed particularly plausible for Keuchel, given his age, unless perhaps he gave away the last season for a low cost that drove down the deal’s AAV.

4-Year Deals

Remember that useful mid-rotation starter contract? You know, the standard mid-rotation jam? Ervin Santana ended up getting the last of these, at $54MM in the ’14-’15 winter, but it was the same essential form as the contracts inked by Brandon McCarthy, Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza, Ricky Nolasco, and Edwin Jackson.

Keuchel seemed another tier up … much like, say, James Shields did when he went for $75MM over four years while entering his age-33 season. That deal is a few years out of date and things have changed. But you’d also expect salaries to rise and for that sort of contract to serve as something of a floor.

And it turns out there is at least one other four-year deal that perhaps provides a ray of hope for Keuchel. Alex Cobb somehow pulled down a $57MM guarantee over four years late last March. Was that a throwback to the aforementioned contract archetype? A reminder that this sort of thing is still possible — that maybe, just maybe, Keuchel can still get a deal of this type (with a boost for his superior track record)? Tough to say for sure, though it’s telling that the O’s have since last winter become the latest team to swap in an analytically driven front office of the kind that seems rather unlikely to swing such a bargain.

3-Year Scenarios

Even analytically informed front offices are willing to plunk down cash on pitchers. It’s just that they tend to like to do so on shorter terms. The Dodgers did the above-cited deal with McCarthy. They’ve otherwise kept it to three years. Clayton Kershaw ($93MM), Rich Hill ($48MM), and Scott Kazmir ($48MM) all were brought aboard with sizable salaries over a three-year term. Kershaw’s track record is obviously far superior, but there are quite a few parallels to Keuchel’s case. The hurlers are the same age and Kershaw’s health problems and velocity declines marred his outlook.

That Kershaw pact seems especially notable when you look at another prominent hurler who recently ended up with a three-year contract. Jake Arrieta was a year older than Keuchel this time last winter. He seemed to have a higher anticipated annual salary after some years of true dominance — we guessed four years and $100MM — but otherwise was in a fairly similar situation to that of Keuchel. Arrieta ended up landing at three years and $75MM in a deal that also includes a voidable opt-out, which could allow Arrieta a chance to return to the open market after the second year of the deal. if the Phillies won’t expand his guaranteed contract. Perhaps a “swell-opt” of this kind could also help facilitate a pact for Keuchel.

Shorter Agreements

There are examples of big-AAV, two-year deals out there, though in most cases they have gone to older pitchers. Call it the John Lackey deal — his second free agent contract, that is, a two-year, $32MM pact with the Cubs. This winter, J.A. Happ ($34MM) and Charlie Morton ($30MM) landed such contracts. It really does seem odd to imagine Keuchel in this grouping, though. Perhaps he’s similarly valuable on an annual basis, but he’s much younger than the type of hurler that has secured this type of deal.

Indeed, there’s an argument to be made that Keuchel would be better off turning up his nose at any two-year offers. Better to take a one-year pillow deal and head back onto the market next winter if you can’t at least get up to a solid three-year pact. After all, that same sort of short-term, high-AAV arrangement should be available at that point — if not something more, if he enters the winter with a lower asking price off the bat.

Would it really be that unimaginable for Keuchel to settle on a pillow deal? In some ways, yeah, it’s tough to see how that could come to pass. But it wouldn’t be without precedent. Ervin Santana ran up a 3.24 ERA in 211 frames in 2014 and entered the ensuing offseason at 31 years of age. He reputedly sought too big a deal early on and then rejected lower-AAV, mid-range deals later in the winter. He ended up securing a one-year, $14.1MM contract — the exact value of the qualifying offer he had previously rejected — when the Braves finally ponied up because their rotation fell apart in camp. That’s the most directly relevant case to Keuchel’s, though others have ended up in similar situations. Jackson, for instance, settled for $11MM with the Nationals in 2011-12. Both Santana and Jackson ended up going back onto the open market in the ensuing winter and securing one of the mid-rotation, four-year deals cited above.