7:10pm: The Cardinals have announced that Hudson has been non-tendered, leaving him set to hit the open market where he’ll be able to sign with any of MLB’s 30 clubs.
4:29pm: The Cardinals are shopping right-hander Dakota Hudson “pretty hard” this afternoon ahead of today’s non-tender deadline, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Feinsand also suggests that St. Louis’s aggressiveness on Hudson could indicate the club views him as a non-tender candidate.
Hudson, 29, is projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz for $3.7MM this offseason in his penultimate trip through arbitration. The right-hander made his MLB debut back in 2018 and managed to get quality mid-rotation results through the first three seasons of his career, with a 3.17 ERA (131 ERA+) in 217 innings of work from 2018-20. That success came in spite of some shaky peripheral numbers that undercut the otherwise strong performance; Hudson struck out just 18.1% of batters faced while walking 11.6% during those years, leaving him with an unsightly 4.74 FIP in spite of an excellent 57.3% groundball rate.
Things took a turn for the worse for Hudson late in the 2020 campaign, however, when he was sidelined by Tommy John surgery. The injury would limit him to just 8 2/3 innings of work in 2021. While he returned as a regular member of the Cardinals rotation in 2022, his results had fallen back to Earth as he posted a mediocre 4.45 ERA (88 ERA+) in 139 2/3 innings of work, with a 10.1% walk rate that nearly matched his 13.1% strikeout rate. Only Zack Greinke struck out a lower percentage of batters among pitchers with at least 100 innings of work that year, while Hudson’s K-BB of just 2.9% was dead last.
While the Cardinals tendered Hudson a contract for the 2023 campaign, he was largely relegated to a depth option in the minor leagues despite the club struggling to field a viable rotation throughout much of the year. While he missed a month early in the season due to a neck issue, 11 of his 23 total starts in 2023 were made for the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Memphis, with whom he struggled to a 6.00 ERA in 48 innings of work. His 4.98 ERA in 81 1/3 innings of work at the big league level, while an improvement, was still 12% worse than league average by measure of ERA+. It’s worth noting that Hudson flashed a more serviceable form when pitching out of the bullpen in the majors this year, with a walk rate below 10% and a 3.86 ERA across 16 1/3 innings of work in six multi-inning relief outings.
Though Hudson has considerable success in his past as a big league starter and showed flashes of quality out of the bullpen this year, it’s not clear whether a team would be interested in parting with much of value for the opportunity to tender him a contract this winter. After all, the Cardinals themselves are among the teams most hungry for starting pitching options in the league at the moment. That being said, it wouldn’t be a shock to see a pitching-needy club work out a trade for Hudson, as the Rockies did for righty Cal Quantrill earlier today. If Hudson finds himself non-tendered by the Cardinals this evening, he could draw interest as a low-cost depth option on a market with plenty of demand for pitching.