Craig Kimbrel

11:15pm: The Cubs have called Kimbrel up to the MLB roster for tomorrow’s game and optioned Tony Barnette to Triple-A Iowa, Maddon announced post-game (Twitter link via Gonzales).

4:50pm: Manager Joe Maddon announced to reporters that Kimbrel is on his way to meet the Cubs right now (Twitter link via Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune). There won’t be a formal announcement or an official corresponding roster move until at least tomorrow, it seems.

3:54pm: Kimbrel is “no longer with” the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate, reports Tommy Birch of the Des Moines Register. Birch calls Kimbrel’s debut with the Cubs “imminent.” Like Wittenmyer, Birch suggests that Kimbrel is expected to be officially called up this week.

10:20am: Cubs closer Craig Kimbrel appears on the cusp of making his long-awaited 2019 debut. The Cubs could activate the seven-time All-Star as early as Thursday or Friday, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Kimbrel is already on the Cubs’ 40-man roster.

Kimbrel, who has been pitching with Triple-A Iowa since June 16, threw a perfect, two-strikeout inning Tuesday in what could go down as his last tuneup performance. The 31-year-old right-hander has made four appearances with Iowa, including back-to-back outings over the weekend, and given up two hits, a walk and a run against four strikeouts. Kimbrel’s fastball has sat in the 95 mph range along the way. That’s down from Kimbrel’s ~98 mph career average, though there’s understandably no concern on the Cubs’ part.

“It’s not about results or velocity, it is getting in game shape and building that foundation,” president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said this week (via Bruce Levine of 670 The Score).

If the Epstein-led Cubs get the version of Kimbrel they’re expecting, the potential Hall of Famer could make a substantial impact on the National League playoff race. Chicago has managed a 43-36 record and a one-game lead over the Brewers in the NL Central as the season approaches the halfway point, though the Cubs’ success has come despite an unspectacular bullpen. Steve Cishek, Brandon Kintzler and Kyle Ryan have recorded solid numbers, but most of the Cubs’ other relievers have been shaky this year. It hasn’t helped the Cubs have gone without the injured Brandon Morrow, a 2018 force who went down last July and still hasn’t returned. Morrow piled up more saves than any other Cub a year ago, and his absence has left Cishek and Pedro Strop to rack up the majority of game-ending opportunities to mixed results. Strop has endured an uncharacteristically subpar season and will try to right himself in a return to a setup role when Kimbrel enters the mix.

While Kimbrel’s an all-time great with 333 saves and a 91 percent success rate for his career, his performance fell back a bit last year as he concluded his Red Sox stint. Kimbrel still posted a 2.74 ERA/3.13 FIP with 13.86 K/9 and 4.48 BB/9 over 62 1/3 innings, which is production every team would sign up for late in games. But clubs had their limits in free agency with Kimbrel, who reportedly had designs on becoming the first-ever $100MM reliever early in the offseason. Clubs scoffed at that asking price and Kimbrel’s subsequent requests, which left him without an employer for seven months.

The Kimbrel saga came to a merciful end when he agreed June 5 to join the Cubs on a three-year, $43MM deal. The draft had passed by then, meaning the Cubs didn’t have to surrender compensation other than money for the qualifying offer recipient. Chicago’s about to begin finding out whether the Kimbrel signing will go down as a wise investment.

June 7, 6:44pm: The team has formally announced the contract.

Jon Heyman of MLB Network has further details. (Links to Twitter.) Games-finished escalators can boost the option buyout value from the $1MM base; Kimbrel can add another $1MM apiece by reach 53 games finished in 2020 and 2021. The option vests if Kimbrel finishes 110 total games between 2020 and 2021, at least 55 of which come in the latter season, and a doctor determines that he does not have a “non-temporary” injury (the details of which are surely defined in the contract).

Kimbrel also picks up no-trade protection. He can’t be dealt this season without his approval. He’ll have an eight-team no-trade list for the 2020 season. The deal does not provide any limitations thereafter.

9:11am: Kimbrel has passed his physical, per Heyman (Twitter links), and an introductory press conference is set to take place prior to today’s game.

June 5, 9:06PM: The deal pays Kimbrel $10MM this season, and $16MM in both 2020 and 2021, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).  There is a vesting option for 2022 that pays Kimbrel $16MM if it vests, Heyman reports (via Twitter), while it becomes a club option if it doesn’t vest.  The buyout of the option year is $1MM.

Also from Passan, Kimbrel could potentially join the Cubs before June 20.  The closer “has been electric” in workouts in front of scouts.

8:21PM: Craig Kimbrel’s long wait in the free agent market is over.  The closer has agreed to a multi-year deal with the Cubs that will become official once Kimbrel passes a physical, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (links to Twitter).  Rosenthal originally reported the dollar figure as close to $45MM, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that Kimbrel will be paid $43MM (via Twitter) through the 2021 season.  Kimbrel is represented by SportsMeter.

Unsurprisingly, Kimbrel’s protracted time on the open market wrapped up shortly after the amateur draft.  Since Kimbrel turned down a one-year, $17.9MM qualifying offer from the Red Sox, any team that signed the veteran closer had to give up some type of compensation in the form of at least one draft pick, plus potentially international signing bonus money and even another pick depending on the identity of the team who landed Kimbrel.  However, this draft pick compensation no longer applied to Kimbrel (or fellow free agent holdout Dallas Keuchel) once draft day hit, removing one of the key hangups any interested team might have had about a signing.

As well, Kimbrel and his representatives aimed very high in their initial contract demands, reportedly looking for a nine-figure deal that would’ve set a new record for a free agent closer.  That said, it’s very common for free agents to hit the market with a big asking price as a starting point, yet Kimbrel’s market never seemed to really develop even as the offseason continued and his contract demands fell into the three-year range.

It could be that the market has simply shifted, and front offices are no willing to commit the type of long-term financial commitments (especially with draft and international market penalties involved) for free agent stoppers that were available to the likes of Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, or Mark Melancon just as recently as the 2016-17 offseason.  That said, it’s still a surprise to realize that over a third of the season elapsed before any club was willing to ink a player with as sterling a track record of ninth-inning success as Kimbrel.

With a career 1.91 ERA, 14.7 K/9, and 4.23 K/BB rate over nine seasons and 532 2/3 career innings, Kimbrel’s resume could very well eventually land him in Cooperstown down the road.  While 2018 wasn’t as dominant as some of his past years, Kimbrel still seemed to have a viable platform year with a 2.74 ERA, 13.86 K/9, and 3.10 K/BB over 62 1/3 frames for the World Series-champion Red Sox.

Beyond the surface numbers, however, there were some red flags.  It was hard to ignore Kimbrel’s increased struggles in the second half of last season, and then through Boston’s playoff run (a 5.91 ERA over 10 2/3 postseason innings).  Kimbrel has also had some control issues in two of the last three seasons, with a 4.48 BB/9 last year and a 5.09 BB/9 in 2016.  These issues could have been enough for teams to hesitate about guaranteeing five or six years to a pitcher in his 30’s (Kimbrel turned 31 in late May) when he was perhaps already showing some signs of slowing down.

Multiple teams were linked to Kimbrel’s market at various points over the last seven months, including several showing increased interest in the last couple of weeks as the draft (or, the qualifying offer expiration date) approached on June 3.  The Rays, Phillies, Braves, Brewers, Twins, Nationals, and Red Sox all had some degree of interest while Kimbrel was available.

While the Cubs always seemed like a good on-paper fit, they seemingly only emerged late in the game due to some unexpected luxury tax room opening up.  Ben Zobrist’s placement on the restricted list on May 8 means that his salary no longer counted towards Chicago’s luxury tax calculations, and if Zobrist misses the entire season (which seems increasingly likely at this juncture), the Cubs would have around $9MM to work with, money has seems to have fueled their push for Kimbrel.

Theo Epstein and company headed into the offseason with a need for bullpen help, with closer Brandon Morrow undergoing elbow surgery in November and still without a clear timetable to return.  Despite needs in the pen and elsewhere on the roster, however, the Cubs were very circumspect about their winter spending, due to a desire to stay under the maximum luxury tax threshold and team chairman Tom Ricketts’ controversial claim that “we don’t have any more” to spend.

Prior to the Kimbrel signing, Roster Resource projected the Cubs at just over $227.7MM in luxury tax payroll, putting the team in line for a 20% tax on every dollar spent above the $206MM luxury tax line, and then an additional 12% surtax for going more than $20MM over the line.  The average annual value of Kimbrel’s deal works out to $14.333MM per season, thus keeping the Cubs from exceeding the $246MM maximum penalty threshold.  Spending more than $246MM would cost the Cubs 62.5% surcharge on the overage, and their top draft pick in 2020 would be dropped by ten slots.

So it could be a win-win situation for Chicago, as the team looks to both avoid the top tax threshold while also getting a closer to bolster a bullpen that has generally been around the middle of the pack this season.  With Pedro Strop returning from the injured list and now Kimbrel’s addition, the Cubs suddenly have a much deeper pen to help them in their fight to win the NL Central.  Signing Kimbrel prior to June 3 would’ve cost the Cubs not only more money in salary, but also $500K in international bonus pool money and their second-highest pick in the 2019 draft (which ended up being the 64th overall selection).

For Kimbrel and his representatives, landing a multi-year contract represents some measure of a victory after the long wait, as several suitors were only interested in inking Kimbrel to a one-year deal for the remainder of the 2019 campaign.  While three years and $43MM is considerably less than Kimbrel expected at the start of the winter, the term isn’t far from four years/$70MM predicted by MLB Trade Rumors’ Top 50 Free Agents list back at the start of November, though nobody could’ve expected the wild path Kimbrel could take to eventually land his next contract.  If Kimbrel ends up pitching up to expectations, one suspects several teams will be kicking themselves over not signing Kimbrel when they had the chance.

The stopper is undoubtedly relieved to simply get his focus back on baseball, as he’ll now join a contender in pursuit of another World Series ring.  The question now is when Kimbrel will actually join the Cubs, as while he has been training on his own in preparation for the season, it remains to be seen how long it will take for him to ramp up to be ready for MLB hitters.  The other looming question could concern Kimbrel’s effectiveness, as other players whose qualifying offer-induced long waits in free agency (Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales in 2014) both struggled badly after sitting out months of the season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images