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Pitcher Notes: Minor, Mets, Phils, Kimbrel, Cards, Hand, Astros

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The Mets and Phillies are among the teams that have gone after Rangers left-hander Mike Minor this offseason, though the former is on his 10-team no-trade list, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Todd Zolecki of MLB.com). It may be a moot point anyway, as the Mets’ pursuit of Minor has reportedly “stalled” because of the Rangers’ asking price. The Phillies, meanwhile, would give Minor a chance to win a starting job in the spring, according to Zolecki, though he adds that they also like his ability to work out of the bullpen. If the Phillies miss out on free agent Zach Britton, whom they’ve been chasing throughout the offseason, they could acquire Minor and use him to fill their need for a left-handed reliever.

  • Whether the Phillies will add another righty to their bullpen is up in the air, but it won’t be free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel unless his price comes down, Zolecki reports. However, if Kimbrel sits on the market for a while longer and becomes more willing to accepting a three- or four-year offer, it’s possible the Phillies could strike, Zolecki suggests. That’s what happened last offseason when they reeled in starter Jake Arrieta on a three-year, $75MM pact – far lower than what he wanted entering the winter – a few weeks before he 2018 campaign started.
  • In signing southpaw Andrew Miller on Friday, the Cardinals fulfilled their desire to pick up a lefty reliever this winter. Before nabbing Miller, though, they contacted the Indians regarding Brad Hand, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. The Indians’ asking price for Hand was presumably too high, however, given his star-level production from 2016-18, team-friendly contract and what they surrendered for him last July. Just five months ago, Cleveland sent elite prospect Francisco Mejia to San Diego for Hand and fellow reliever Adam Cimber.
  • Don’t expect the Astros to look for a reliever in response to righty Joe Smith’s injury, according to president Jeff Luhnow (via Mark Feinsand of MLB.com). “Losing Joe is a blow, but I don’t think it requires us to go out and get another late-inning reliever. We’re going to have enough good arms in the bullpen to do what we need to do,” Luhnow said regarding Smith, who will miss six to eight months after undergoing surgery to repair a ruptured left Achilles. Luhnow’s stance is understandable – even with Smith on the shelf, Houston’s bullpen will continue to boast a slew of proven righties in Roberto Osuna, Chris Devenski, Ryan Pressly, Hector Rondon, Will Harris and Brad Peacock.

Heyman’s Latest: Yanks, Andujar, Padres, Kimbrel, BoSox, Reds, Fish, J.T., Mets

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Third base help is reportedly atop the Padres’ wish list, and the Yankees’ Miguel Andujar is among their targets, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred. The Padres “love” the 23-year-old, per Heyman, but it’s unclear whether they’ve made a legitimate attempt to acquire him. Although he turned in a near-AL Rookie of the Year season in 2018, in which he slashed .297/.328/.527 with 27 home runs in 606 plate appearances, Andujar struggled mightily as a defender. While Yankees general manager Brian Cashman has consistently praised Andujar and brushed off concerns about his defense, the player has nonetheless been a prominent part of the rumor mill this winter. If the Yankees do move Andujar, whom they could replace with free-agent superstar Manny Machado, it’s fair to surmise it’ll be for a player(s) capable of immediately upgrading the title contenders’ roster.

Here’s more from Heyman’s latest smorgasbord of notes:

  • Free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel was reportedly seeking a $100MM-plus contract as of earlier this month, though it’s “believed” he has dropped his price, Heyman writes. According to Heyman, the 30-year-old Kimbrel has gone down to $86MM – the same value of the five-year deal the Yankees gave Aroldis Chapman in 2016. Chapman’s contract remains the richest ever for a reliever, and given Kimbrel’s production to date, it’s unsurprising he’s aiming to match or exceed it. Also unsurprising: Kimbrel’s price is still too rich for the Red Sox’s blood, Heyman hears, suggesting they may be willing to go to four years and $60MM to $70MM.
  • The Reds made right-hander Lance Lynn an offer when he was on the market, Heyman relays. However, they didn’t come close to signing Lynn, who joined the Rangers on a three-year, $30MM guarantee on Dec. 18. The Reds addressed their rotation prior to then by acquiring Tanner Roark from the Nationals and did so again Friday, picking up Alex Wood from the Dodgers. The club has also pursued Yankees righty Sonny Gray this offseason, but New York’s seeking Double-A and Triple-A pitchers Cincinnati doesn’t want to trade, per Heyman. Meanwhile, in Cincy’s talks with Miami regarding star catcher J.T. Realmuto, Heyman writes that the Marlins’ focus has been on Nick Senzel, Taylor Trammell, Hunter Greene and Jonathan India – the Reds’ top four prospects at MLB.com.
  • Mets righty Seth Lugo has changed representation and hired the Ballengee Group, Heyman reports. The 29-year-old Lugo, who won’t be eligible for arbitration until next winter, was a rare bright spot for the Mets’ bullpen in 2018. Across 101 1/3 innings (78 1/3 in relief), Lugo managed a 2.66 ERA with 9.15 K/9, 2.49 BB/9 and a 46.5 percent groundball rate.

Relief Market Rumors: Kimbrel, Robertson, Britton, Smith, Watson, Giants

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Though Craig Kimbrel was at one point said to be seeking a six-year contract worth as much as $100MM, Fancred’s Jon Heyman writes in his latest notes column that the asking price on Kimbrel has come down a bit. Kimbrel’s camp, however, is still eyeing a contract along the lines of the $86MM and $80MM contracts signed by Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen two offseasons ago. Given Kimbrel’s track record of elite performance, it’s not exactly surprising to see him aiming for a potentially record-setting deal, though it’s important to note that both Chapman and Jansen were younger than Kimbrel when signing those deals more than two years ago. Kimbrel is only three months younger than Chapman and eight months younger than Jansen, which will likely make it difficult for him to secure a contract of that length and total guarantee. The market for Kimbrel remains somewhat undefined, though the Red Sox have some degree of interest in retaining him; Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets that Boston is waiting to see what happens with Kimbrel before taking action on the relief market. Heyman, however, notes that the current asking price is still deemed too high by the Red Sox front office.

Some other notes on the market for relievers…

  • Heyman notes that the Red Sox also have interest in David Robertson, though their preference would be to limit a Robertson signing to two years, while the veteran righty is believed to be aiming for a three-year pact. Robertson, 34 in April, is representing himself in free agency this winter and has been connected to both the Dodgers and Mets in recent weeks. Robertson, who has split his career between the Yankees and White Sox, has pitched at least 60 innings and made at least 60 appearances in each of the past nine seasons and is fresh off a 3.23 ERA with 11.8 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 in 69 2/3 innings in 2018.
  • With Andrew Miller reportedly on the verge of a contract with the Cardinals, Matt Gelb of The Athletic tweets that the Phillies’ search for a left-handed reliever in free agency could be down to “Zach Britton or bust,” noting that Britton has numerous teams with serious interest in his services. The Phils were in on both Miller and Britton, with NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury reporting last week that the team was “strongly” in the mix for Miller. Britton is, of course, quite familiar to Phillies brass, as president Andy MacPhail, GM Matt Klentak and assistant GM Ned Rice were all in the Orioles’ front office when Britton was drafted and developed. The trade market could certainly present alternatives, though there’s no one with the track record of either Miller or Britton known to be available.
  • Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area tweets that Miller’s impending deal with the Cardinals will have ramifications for the Giants as well. San Francisco has been waiting for Miller, Britton and others to sign before marketing their own left-handed relievers (i.e. Will Smith, Tony Watson). There are numerous hopeful contenders in need of left-handed relief help, and both Smith and Watson are coming off strong 2018 showings. Smith, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.1MM in 2019, will be a free agent again next offseason. Watson, meanwhile, is signed to a guaranteed $3.5MM salary for the 2019 season and is owed at least a $500K buyout on a player option for the 2020 season. Of course, if Watson replicates his excellent 2018 production, he’ll surely turn down that option in favor of a return to free agency. And, if he struggles through a poor season or is injured, he’ll quite likely take that option for the 2020 campaign.

Free Agent Rumors: Harrison, Kimbrel, Norris, Angels

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The Nationals have had a pair of “brief” meetings with Josh Harrison’s representatives at MSM Sports, tweets Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. While there’s mutual interest, Dougherty reports that Harrison’s camp is also looking “closely” at other landing spots as well. Whether that’s due to what the Nats would be willing to offer, how they’d plan to use Harrison or another factor remains to be seen. The Nats have some uncertainty at second base, where Wilmer Difo and Howie Kendrick (who missed most of 2018 due to a ruptured Achilles) currently sit atop the depth chart. Top prospect Carter Kieboom may not be far from the big leagues, but adding a stable short-term option still makes plenty of sense for Washington. The Nats have been connected to Harrison several times over the past couple of weeks, but the versatile 31-year-old surely has other teams interested in his services. He’s been tied to the Yankees and Reds at various points this winter.

A few more notes on the free-agent market…

  • Craig Kimbrel’s lofty asking price — a reported six years and $100MM — and the lack of big-market clubs currently willing to spend on a late-inning reliever could present the right-hander with a difficult market this winter, Buster Olney of ESPN.com writes. Olney likens the situation to last year’s tepid market for J.D. Martinez — a similarly elite player for his position (designated hitter) who lingered on the open market until landing in Boston in late February — a match that long seemed inevitable. The Red Sox may be the best bet for Kimbrel, too, Olney opines, especially given the plethora of more affordable options for smaller and mid-market clubs to pursue even if they do want to bolster the back end of their bullpens.
  • The Marlins are one of several teams that has reached out to free-agent right-hander Bud Norris, tweets Craig Mish of SiriusXM. Miami has thinned out its bullpen this offseason by trading Kyle Barraclough (to Washington), and there’s a definitive lack of experienced arms at the back end of the organization’s bullpen. At present, Drew Steckenrider is the presumptive favorite to close games for skipper Don Mattingly, although the right-hander struggled down the stretch in 2019. Even as the Marlins rebuild the organization, there’s still an obvious opportunity to add some low-cost bullpen options to help take the stress off younger arms and, potentially, to be traded for further minor league talent down the line. The 33-year-old Norris has a 3.91 ERA with 10.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and 47 saves over the past two seasons — the most recent of which was spent with the Cardinals.
  • The Angels’ best offer to J.A. Happ topped out at two years and a total of $28MM, reports Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (via Twitter). That checks in $6MM shy of the two-year total that Happ received to return to the Yankees, so it’s hardly surprising that Happ opted for the familiarity of an organization he already knew and a greater guarantee. Both offers contained vesting options, Fletcher notes. With Happ, Patrick Corbin, Nathan Eovaldi, Charlie Morton and Lance Lynn all off the board, the Halos have begun to see some of their free-agent options dwindle. Dallas Keuchel and Yusei Kikuchi are the top two starters from MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent list remaining, though as can be seen in our Free Agent Tracker, there are plenty of available options beyond that pairing. And, of course, the trade market will offer various options for the Angels, whose rejuvenated farm system should appeal to many clubs with pitching to spare.

Poll: Who Will Be The Next Top-10 Free Agent To Sign?

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A year ago on this date, only one of the top ten names on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents of the 2017-18 offseason had decided on their team for the upcoming season.  That player, in fact, wasn’t technically even a free agent at all — Masahiro Tanaka decided against opting out of his contract with the Yankees, thus avoiding the open market altogether.

So, at least in comparison to the uniquely slow pace of last year’s offseason, we’ve already seen quite a bit of action on the free agent front this winter.  After today’s news of Wilson Ramos’ deal with the Mets, seven of the top 25 players in this year’s top 50 ranking have already reached agreements, including three members of the top ten — Patrick Corbin (#3) signed with the Nationals, Nathan Eovaldi (#7) re-signed with the Red Sox, and J.A. Happ (#9) has reportedly agreed to rejoin the Yankees.

There have been a lot of rumors swirling around the remaining seven players in our top ten, and it’s anyone guess as to which will be the next to sign.  Let’s take a look at where things reportedly stand with each member of this septet….

Bryce Harper: With Harper and agent Scott Boras reportedly looking for nothing less than the biggest contract in baseball history, it would admittedly be surprising to see the former Nationals outfielder come off the board next.  Harper, his wife Kayla, and Boras has reportedly held court with multiple teams in private meetings in Las Vegas, though the specific identities of these teams isn’t yet clear.  Teams like the Dodgers, White Sox, Phillies, and Cardinals are known to have some level of interest in Harper’s services, while we’ve also heard some teams (like the Nationals and Yankees) seemingly count themselves out of “Harper’s Bazaar,” as Boras calls it.  Speculative fits like the Cubs or Giants could also be out due to budget constraints.  Boras has a penchant for waiting until deep into the offseason to find a satisfactory contract for his clients, so I’d guess that we won’t know the identity of Harper’s next team before 2018 is over.

Manny Machado: The star infielder is set for in-person meetings with the White Sox, Yankees, Phillies, and at least one more team this week.  It’s impossible to mention Machado’s free agency without also mentioning Harper, as the two share many of the same suitors and it seems highly unlikely that one team would be willing to spend big enough to add both to the same roster.  Machado’s controversial history of overly-aggressive (or, as some might say, outright dirty) play has been a factor in his market, as was his October interview with The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal about his admitted lack of maximum effort on some plays, and his admission that “I’m not the type of player that’s going to be ‘Johnny Hustle.’ ”  While questions about Machado’s personality are legitimate, especially as he is looking for a record-breaking contract, it’s also possible some teams are using Machado’s interview as leverage to try and lower his price tag.  We should know more about Machado’s status once these in-person meetings are complete, and if a team’s concerns about his work ethic are erased after a face-to-face meetings, it isn’t impossible that a signing could come before Christmas.

Dallas Keuchel: Another Boras client, Keuchel might not have quite as long a wait on the market since there has already been something of a run on free agent starting pitching, as Corbin, Eovaldi, Happ, and Charlie Morton have all found new teams.  On the trade front, there now seems to be less chance that the Indians could deal Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer, while the Mets’ flurry of acquisitions have made a Noah Syndergaard trade less likely.  Teams that missed out on these frontline arms may now be willing to meet Keuchel’s hefty asking price, and give up the draft pick compensation necessary to sign the lefty since he rejected the Astros’ qualifying offer.  Teams like the Reds, Braves, Padres, Blue Jays, Phillies, and Nationals have all been reported to have varying levels of Keuchel’s services.

Craig Kimbrel: Teams would also need to surrender a draft to sign Kimbrel since he turned down a QO from the Red Sox, and might also have to fork over the biggest contract ever given to a relief pitcher.  A big initial ask is a common negotiating tactic, of course, though even at a lower amount, Kimbrel and his representatives clearly see him worthy of a deal akin to Aroldis Chapman/Kenley Jansen money.  The Cardinals and Phillies have both been linked to Kimbrel, and the Red Sox may or may not still be in on their former closer.  The recent signings of Jeurys Familiar and Joe Kelly indicate that the bullpen market is starting to move, though Kimbrel is obviously in a higher financial level than those types of contracts.

Yasmani Grandal: The Angels, Astros, and White Sox have all been linked to Grandal, though Houston might be out of the catching market after signing Robinson Chirinos.  Chicago also recently added James McCann, though that isn’t quite as significant an obstacle to a future move for Grandal, should the Sox deal Welington Castillo and then install Grandal as the starter ahead of McCann.  Even before Ramos became a Met, Grandal’s biggest competition has likely been J.T. Realmuto, though teams have thus far balked at meeting the Marlins’ large asking price in a trade.  The Mets are one team that decided to simply sign a quality catcher rather than trade for Realmuto, and another backstop-needy team could do the same by inking Grandal, though he’s another QO free agent.  There has been some indication that the Marlins could decide by Christmas whether to keep or trade Realmuto, so once that decision is made either way, Grandal’s market will gain some clarity.

A.J. Pollock: Here’s another player who turned down a qualifying offer, and another with a pricey contract demand (reportedly in the $80MM range).  The Mets, Braves, Reds, and Astros are known to have interest in Pollock, plus with so many trade rumors swirling around other outfielders, more suitors could easily emerge as more outfield spots are created.

Michael Brantley: Machado and Brantley are the only two of these seven players who don’t have QO compensation tied to their services, which gives Brantley in particular a boost as he tests free agency for the first time in his career.  Furthermore, Brantley also appears willing to try playing first base, which adds a bit of extra versatility to his repertoire for any interested teams, even if Brantley would still primarily play as an outfielder.  What could dampen enthusiasm, however, is Brantley’s initial asking price, reportedly something akin to a $20MM average annual value over three years.  We’ve already heard that the Braves aren’t meeting that price, and other Brantley suitors like the Astros, Cardinals, and White Sox are also sure to aim for a lower number.

(poll link for app users)

AL East Notes: Kimbrel, Sox, Mets, Yankees, Sanchez, Rays, Elias

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Agents representing some of the top available relievers have been told by the Red Sox that the team is waiting on Craig Kimbrel before deciding on other bullpen options, NBC Sports Boston’s Evan Drellich reports.  This would seemingly run counter to other recent reports, as Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recently stated that the team wasn’t planning to spend big on a closer, while Kimbrel is reportedly looking for the priciest contract ever landed by a relief pitcher.  Obviously some gamesmanship could be at work here, as Drellich notes, and he suggests that a shorter-term and potentially backloaded contract with a high average annual value could be a fit for both sides.  This would give Kimbrel a big payday while also reloading the Boston bullpen while the club is in a win-now window, as several notable stars are set for free agency in the next year or two.

  • In another chat with media today, Dombrowski told Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter links) and other reporters that was happy with his starting outfielders and his catching mix, and wasn’t looking to make any changes.  In regards to the latter position, the Red Sox have received at least some interest in their catchers from the Mets (as per MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo) as New York continues to explore secondary plans if the club can’t land J.T. Realmuto from the Marlins.
  • Even after agreeing to a reunion with J.A. Happ today, Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters (including Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News) that the team isn’t necessarily done adding starting pitching.  The Happ deal “gives me more comfort,” Cashman said, though “It doesn’t mean that we would be out of the market all together….That doesn’t preclude us from being open minded to any other options that develop over time. In the meantime, it does allow us to pivot and focus further on other aspects of our roster, too.”  Some of the bigger-name pitchers associated with the Yankees, however, don’t appear to on the radar at the moment.  Sources tell Ackert that the Yankees balked at the Indians’ asking price for Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer, while another source describes a trade with the Mets for Noah Syndergaard as “extremely unlikely.”
  • In trade talks with the Diamondbacks about Paul Goldschmidt, “the Rays were willing to at least discuss” the possibility of dealing outfield prospect Jesus Sanchez, the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin writes.  Preseason prospect rankings had Sanchez as a consensus top-60 minor leaguer in all of baseball, and the now-21-year-old outfielder continues to move up the Rays’ ladder, making his Double-A debut in 2018.  Moving such a youngstar even from a deep farm system would’ve been a bold move for just one year of Goldschmidt’s services, yet Topkin believes it could be a sign of how seriously Tampa Bay is prepared to pursue elite talent.  This could be a hint towards the Rays’ ventures towards other notable trade targets, such as perhaps Realmuto.
  • There still isn’t any solid word about Brandon Hyde as the Orioles’ new manager, as GM Mike Elias didn’t even confirm that Hyde received an offer during today’s session with media (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko).  “In my position I can’t be out in front of events or the one who’s naming names or specifying timelines in public, obviously. But I think we’re in good shape. I’m hopeful that we’ll be able to have a good hire in due time,” Elias said.

Craig Kimbrel Reportedly Asking For Nine-Figure Contract

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We’ve heard very little to this point about the market for veteran closer Craig Kimbrel. That may be due to his eye-popping asking price: over $100MM, per Jayson Stark of The Athletic (Twitter link).

Kimbrel and his reps at SportsMeter are obviously shooting for a record-breaking pact, at least as a starting point. It had previously been reported that the 30-year-old hurler was looking for six years, which has never before been secured by a reliever on the open market.

To this point, the largest and longest relief pitching contract is the five-year, $86MM Aroldis Chapman deal with the Yankees. That level of pay is obviously reserved for the truly elite relief arms — those few who, like Kimbrel, have been utterly dominant for extended stretches of time.

When the 2017 season came to a close, a nine-figure promise seemed well within reach for Kimbrel, who for the fourth time threw at least sixty innings of sub-2.00 ERA ball — and did so with an insane combination of 126 strikeouts against just 14 walks. He induced swinging strikes on just under one in five of the pitches he threw while maintaining a career-high 98.7 mph average fastball velocity.

Unfortunately, the final year of Kimbrel’s contract — an extension long ago inked with the Braves, then traded to the Padres and on to the Red Sox — was not to that standard. Kimbrel ended the 2018 campaign with a 2.74 ERA in 62 1/3 innings, with an excellent but hardly otherworldly mix of 13.9 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9. He still pumped 97.5 with the heater, though that was the first time he had dipped below a 98 mph mean heater since 2013.

Most worrying of all was Kimbrel’s uncomfortable postseason effort. It’d be silly to make too much of some brief struggles, and it all worked out in the end, but we’re talking about marketing a player as an unmatchable finishing piece for a team that wants to win it all.

There’s little doubt that Kimbrel’s October scuffles dented his armor a bit, though he also shouldn’t be counted out for a return to glory. Two of Kimbrel’s least-effective seasons have come among the past three, but he’s still unquestionably among the game’s very best relief pitchers. And his durability has been exemplary as well.

Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Kimbrel would set a new record, but only for average annual value for a reliever contract rather than total guarantee. It remains to be seen how things develop, but it’s notable that he’s aiming quite high to open the market.

AL East Notes: Rays, Red Sox, Martin, Giles, Jays

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Rays manager Kevin Cash confirmed that his team will again use the “opener” strategy in 2019, telling Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times and other reporters that openers will “start” at least twice during every turn in the rotation.  AL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell and right-hander Tyler Glasnow are currently projected as the only conventional full-time starters in Tampa’s rotation, and Cash also noted that some of the pitchers the Rays used as long men last season (Yonny Chirinos, Ryan Yarbrough, Wilmer Font, or Jalen Beeks) could be deployed as regular starters.

Here’s more from around the AL East…

  • It doesn’t seem as if the Red Sox will be re-signing Craig Kimbrel, as club president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters (including MLB.com’s Ian Browne and MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo) today that “we’re not looking to make a big expenditure in” the closer position.  Past reports indicated that Boston had only limited interest in bringing back the star closer, and with Kimbrel seeking a six-year deal, it seems as if his asking price will simply be too high for the team’s liking.  If Kimbrel isn’t returning, the Red Sox are looking around for other relief options, and Dombrowski noted that they would prefer inking a closer to a short-term deal.  It also isn’t out of the question that the Sox use Ryan Brasier or Matt Barnes as a closer next season, though Dombrowski said it’s too early in the offseason for such determinations.
  • Dombrowski also mentioned that the Red Sox had received interest in catchers Christian Vazquez, Blake Swihart, and Sandy Leon, and that the club is “open to discussing” any of the three in trade talks.  None of the trio are coming off good reasons, though Leon and Vazquez have a lot of defensive upside and Swihart may yet be able to unlock his prospect potential with a change of scenery.
  • The Blue Jays have been drawing interest in Russell Martin and other catchers, while a rival executive describes closer Ken Giles as “available” in trade talks, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi reports.  It stands to reason that the rebuilding Jays are open to just about any veteran on their roster, though Giles’ market may not develop until some of the other notable relievers on the free agent or trade fronts have been moved.  Another rival executive believes Martin has trade value despite a $20MM salary owed in 2019, though the Jays’ willingness to eat a significant portion of that money will determine if a deal is realistic or not.  Absorbing more of the salary would improve the quality of the prospect(s) Toronto received, Davidi writes.

Craig Kimbrel Reportedly Seeking Six-Year Contract

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Teams that have spoken to Craig Kimbrel’s camp early in the offseason have been told that the right-hander “is looking for a six-year deal,” tweets ESPN’s Buster Olney. It’s likely that there’s some degree of tactical negotiating at play here; free agents will always set out seeking a sum larger than the one they perhaps hope to find, and a six-year pact for Kimbrel would be precedent-setting.

At 30 years of age, Kimbrel is already older than both Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman were when they signed their five-year contracts worth $80MM and $86MM, respectively. Those are the two largest deals for any reliever in MLB history, and Kimbrel is presumably aiming to topple both. His ability to do so, of course, is far from a certainty. Though he comes with as much name value as any reliever in the game, Kimbrel had already displayed some red flags in 2018 even before struggling in the postseason.

Through 62 1/3 regular-season innings in 2018, Kimbrel posted a 2.74 ERA which, while strong, was the second-highest of his career. Few clubs place much of an emphasis on that figure in today’s game, but Kimbrel also saw his walk rate spike to 12.6 percent, the second-highest full-season mark of his career. Beyond that, Kimbrel also averaged a home run per nine innings pitched for the first time and turned in a career-worst 3.13 FIP.

Unfortunately for Kimbrel, his most pronounced struggles came under the national spotlight of the 2018 postseason. He surrendered runs in five of his nine playoff outings, issuing eight walks and hitting another two batters in just 10 2/3 innings of total work. It’s worth noting that he’d allowed all of two earned runs in 10 postseason innings coming into the 2018 season, but his late struggles didn’t leave a favorable final impression.

All of this, to some extent, is a matter of splitting hairs. The 2018 version of Kimbrel wasn’t the superhuman entity that Red Sox fans enjoyed in 2017, but Kimbrel was still one of the game’s top relievers. His 97.1 mph average fastball velocity is a dead match for his career mark in that regard, and his 17.2 percent swinging-strike rate was actually an improvement over his 16.5 percent career mark. He ranked sixth among 151 qualified relievers in overall strikeout percentage, fifth in swinging-strike rate and 12th in K%-BB%.  A control issue was his primary downfall in 2018, evidenced not only by the increased walk rate but by the decreased first-pitch strike rate and overall percentage of pitches he threw in the strike zone.

As for the postseason difficulties, those are hardly a death knell for Kimbrel’s free-agent stock. Yu Darvish, for instance, landed a $126MM guarantee last winter on the heels of some of his own World Series struggles, and the opposite effect (or lack thereof) can hold equally true; speculation that Daniel Murphy had emphatically bolstered his free-agent stock with his 2015 postseason heroics never manifested into reality. He signed a three-year, $37.5MM deal with the Nationals that was generally in line with pre-October expectations.

As for the six-year ask, that could well be a ploy to get down to a more realistic target of five years or even four at a record-setting average annual value — Wade Davis’ $17.33MM mark currently holds that distinction — which is generally where most projections have pegged Kimbrel this winter. We at MLBTR predicted a four-year, $70MM deal for Kimbrel, which would fall shy of the overall record guarantee for a reliever but would set a new high-water mark in terms of AAV at $17.5MM. Kimbrel already rejected a qualifying offer that would’ve paid him $17.9MM in 2019. As such, any team that signs him will face draft pick and/or international pool forfeitures (the specifics of which can be seen here).

MLBTR Readers Predict Teams For Top 10 Free Agents

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MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest closed last night.  6,845 people entered the contest.  Here’s where our readers think each of the top 10 free agents is going.

1.  Bryce Harper – Phillies (34.0%), Dodgers (13.1%), Nationals (10.8%), Giants (9.8%), Cubs (8.5%), Cardinals (7.9%), White Sox (6.0%), Yankees (4.2%), Braves (1.4%), Astros (1.4%), Angels (1.1%)

2.  Manny Machado – Phillies (45.8%), Yankees (36.5%), White Sox (5.0%), Dodgers (4.0%), Cardinals (1.9%), Mets (1.5%), Cubs (1.3%)

3.  Patrick Corbin – Yankees (74.8%), Phillies (3.1%), Astros (3.0%), Brewers (2.5%), Angels (2.4%), Braves (2.1%), Cardinals (1.4%), Nationals (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.4%), Cubs (1.2%), Giants (1.1%)

4.  Dallas Keuchel – Astros (16.4%), Angels (13.8%), Nationals (13.5%), Brewers (9.9%), Yankees (8.2%), Phillies (6.2%), Braves (6.0%), Cardinals (4.1%), Reds (3.1%), Dodgers (2.1%), Cubs (2.1%), Giants (2.0%), Padres (1.9%), Rangers (1.5%), White Sox (1.4%), Twins (1.2%), Mariners (1.2%), Athletics (1.2%), Red Sox (1.1%)

5.  Craig Kimbrel – Braves (28.8%), Red Sox (25.4%), Cardinals (18.1%), Phillies (8.4%), Cubs (3.6%), Nationals (3.1%), Mets (2.6%), Astros (2.2%), Dodgers (1.5%), Angels (1.2%), Indians (1.2%)

6.  Yasmani Grandal – Nationals (21.6%), Astros (15.3%), Dodgers (14.4%), Mets (11.3%), Braves (7.8%), Angels (3.4%), Brewers (3.0%), Phillies (2.7%), Mariners (2.6%), Rockies (2.5%), Red Sox (2.5%), Athletics (1.5%), Rangers (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.3%)

7.  Nathan Eovaldi – Red Sox (51.5%), Brewers (5.6%), Astros (4.3%), Yankees (4.0%), Angels (3.6%), Padres (3.2%), Phillies (3.0%), Braves (2.8%), Dodgers (2.4%), Reds (2.3%), Nationals (2.1%), Cubs (2.0%), Giants (2.0%), Cardinals (1.6%), White Sox (1.4%), Rangers (1.3%), Twins (1.1%), Athletics (1.0%)

8.  A.J. Pollock – Giants (22.9%), Indians (9.2%), Diamondbacks (9.0%), White Sox (6.7%), Phillies (6.2%), Braves (5.7%), Mets (5.4%), Cardinals (5.0%), Nationals (4.6%), Cubs (3.4%), Rockies (3.4%), Mariners (2.5%), Athletics (1.7%), Dodgers (1.6%), Angels (1.6%), Astros (1.5%), Padres (1.5%), Blue Jays (1.4%), Rangers (1.3%), Brewers (1.1%)

9.  J.A. Happ – Yankees (30.9%), Blue Jays (9.2%), Angels (8.2%), Brewers (6.5%), Phillies (4.7%), Astros (4.4%), Nationals (3.7%), Twins (3.1%), Athletics (3.1%), Braves (2.6%), Cubs (2.5%), White Sox (2.4%), Cardinals (2.3%), Reds (2.2%), Giants (1.7%), Mariners (1.7%), Dodgers (1.5%), Padres (1.2%), Diamondbacks (1.2%), Red Sox (1.1%), Rangers (1.0%), Indians (1.0%)

10.  Michael Brantley – Braves (30.8%), Indians (10.1%), Giants (9.5%), Phillies (4.9%), Cardinals (4.5%), White Sox (4.2%), Nationals (3.6%), Cubs (3.0%), Mariners (2.9%), Astros (2.8%), Diamondbacks (2.6%), Rockies (2.4%), Athletics (2.3%), Mets (2.3%), Blue Jays (1.9%), Angels (1.4%), Twins (1.4%), Rangers (1.2%), Padres (1.1%), Rays (1.0%), Dodgers (1.0%)

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