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Red Sox Rumors: Reynolds, Senga, Murphy, Diamondbacks

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The Red Sox are the latest club to show interest in Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds, The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes.  Reynolds is one of a few names on the trade radar for the Sox early in the offseason, as Speier reports that the Red Sox have looked into the Diamondbacks’ group of left-handed hitting outfielders, and Boston is also expected to again check in with the Athletics about catcher Sean Murphy.

Public defensive metrics were down (-3.2 UZR/150, -7 Outs Above Average, -14 Defensive Runs Saved) on Reynolds’ work in center field in 2022, yet with Enrique Hernandez perhaps lined up anyway as Boston’s top center field choice, the Sox could have an eye on moving Reynolds into a corner outfield spot at Fenway.  His bat should play anywhere, as Reynolds hit .262/.345/.461 with 27 homers over 614 plate appearances with the Pirates last season.  With the exception of the shortened 2020 season, Reynolds has been a decidedly above-average bat in his four years in the majors, even if his center field defense has been more of a mixed bag.

Adding Reynolds would be an ideal solution for a Red Sox team looking for more power in general, and with a specific need in the outfield.  Hernandez, Alex Verdugo, and journeyman Rob Refsnyder line up as the current starting outfield, with unproven prospect Jarren Duran and a few utility options as depth.  If Reynolds was obtained for a corner outfield spot, Refsnyder would likely be pushed to a bench spot; if Reynolds still played center field, the versatile Hernandez might be see more work at second base.  Since Verdugo has also been floated as a potential trade candidate, however, a bigger outfield shake-up could be a possibility.

Corbin Carroll, Daulton Varsho, Alek Thomas, and Jake McCarthy are all left-handed bats primed for regular duty in Arizona, creating a bit of a surplus the D’Backs could use to fill other roster needs.  Thomas and McCarthy are seen as the likeliest to be moved, though it isn’t known which names the Sox might have directly asked about.  None of the quartet are as established as Reynolds, yet all have shown intriguing potential either as prospects or early in their Major League careers.

D’Backs general manager Mike Hazen has stated that his team would want MLB-ready talent for any of the outfielders, yet the asking price for an Arizona outfielder wouldn’t be as cumbersome as the Pirates’ demands for Reynolds, which are known to be enormous.  It would only take one big offer to perhaps change the mind of Pirates GM Ben Cherington (who formerly ran Boston’s front office), and yet roughly half the teams in baseball have been linked to Reynolds over the last year-plus, with no movement on the trade front.  By this point, several pundits have opined that Reynolds won’t be dealt, as the Pirates hope to return to contention before Reynolds hits free agency following the 2025 season.

Murphy is in something of a similar situation, as he is also arb-controlled through the 2025 campaign.  While the A’s are in an earlier point in their latest rebuild and catching prospect Shea Langeliers is waiting in the wings, Oakland is under no direct pressure to move Murphy for anything less than a major trade package.  Speier cites Brayan Bello as the type of top-tier, MLB-ready younger player the Athletics want as the headliner in a Murphy trade, though it isn’t clear if the A’s wanted Bello specifically in any earlier talks between the Red Sox and A’s prior to the trade deadline.  If this was the case, that deal might be a no-go, as Speier writes that “Bello borders on untradeable” from Boston’s perspective.

Speaking of untouchable players, the Red Sox also inquired about Zac Gallen, but the Diamondbacks have told clubs that Gallen isn’t available.  Pitching is another need on Boston’s winter shopping list, and Speier figures the Sox to be among the many suitors for Kodai Senga since they “were among many teams to scout him heavily” in Japan.  The Mariners, Rangers, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Padres, Cubs, and Angels have already been linked to Senga’s market, with MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweeting earlier today about the Angels’ interest.  Senga is free of his NPB commitments, so an interested Major League team can negotiate with him like any free agent, without the obstacle of the posting system.

Hazen: Diamondbacks Have Flexibility For At Least Slight Payroll Bump

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The Diamondbacks head into the offseason looking to bolster a roster that showed some promise in the second half. General manager Mike Hazen indicated last month the team was prioritizing adding swing-and-miss to the bullpen and was looking for another right-handed bat, and he suggested this week the front office should have financial breathing room for some additions.

“I think we’re going to have some room to move,” Hazen told reporters at the GM Meetings (link via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic). “When we’ve felt like the team has gotten better, (owner Ken Kendrick) has usually given us leeway to maneuver. I think that’s going to be the case to some degree. I don’t know that we’re going to get to levels where we’ve been in the recent past, but I think we’re going to have some flexibility to do some things. I think the talent on our team warrants some additional good players.”

That’s not the resounding promise for a payroll spike for which the fanbase was probably hoping, although it does suggest they’ll be able to dip into free agency for help. Arizona signed only three free agents — Mark Melancon, Ian Kennedy and Zach Davies — to big league contracts last winter, tacking on a modest $12MM on the open market. The Snakes entered the 2022 campaign with a player payroll just under $91MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, their second straight year between $90MM and $96MM.

Before the pandemic-shortened season, Arizona pushed spending north of $120MM in both 2018-19. Hazen’s comments downplay the possibility of getting back to those heights in 2023, but it doesn’t seem out of the question the team could push above $100MM in Opening Day payroll for the first time since 2020.

A relief corps that had the majors lowest strikeout rate figures to be a key priority. Arizona already bought low on a reliever with decent swing-and-miss ability, claiming Cole Sulser off waivers from the Marlins this week. That’s just one of what should be multiple additions, although an already-thin free agent relief market has seen arguably its top two players (Edwin Díaz and Robert Suarez) agree to re-sign with their previous teams. That leaves Taylor Rogers, Rafael Montero, Carlos Estévez, Seth Lugo, Andrew Chafin, Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin among the top arms available, although the D-Backs are sure to look into trades and/or waivers for additional options.

One other key offseason storyline for the D-Backs is whether they’d deal from their stable of upper level outfielders. Arizona has seen Daulton Varsho and Corbin Carroll emerge as key pieces of the future, while Jake McCarthy had a strong 2022 campaign to earn everyday reps. Alek Thomas didn’t hit the ground running at the big league level, but he’s a high-contact center fielder who entered the year as a top prospect. The Snakes could certainly hang onto that depth, but Hazen has spoken on a number of occasions about a willingness to entertain trade offers on members of that group.

The GM reiterated this week that dealing an outfielder is a possibility, but he emphasized he’d only do so in a move that brought back immediate MLB talent. “I’m not trading them for prospects. The prospect trade is out,” Hazen said (via Piecoro). “You can take that off the table. It’ll have to be (an established or major league ready player) and at a caliber for us that we felt like we were equally maintaining (value).”

Hazen pointed out the outfield would have a trickle-down effect on how the team approaches the designated hitter position. He suggested the current outfield depth was likely to spill over to rotating players through the DH spot but acknowledged pursuing a full-fledged DH could be more realistic with a trade that ships away an outfielder. Hazen, a former Red Sox executive, pointed to David Ortiz in suggesting he’s not opposed to having an everyday DH in the right circumstances. The D-Backs certainly aren’t going to find a hitter on the level of the Hall of Fame slugger, but old friend J.D. Martinez is an impact free agent righty bat. Nelson Cruz is coming off a terrible year but could find a big league opportunity, while players like Justin Turner and Evan Longoria could fit as hybrids between a questionable third base position and DH in the desert.

Certainly, Arizona could look to the trade market for their desired right-handed bat as well — perhaps in a deal that sends out one of their lefty-swinging young outfielders. What’s clear is the Diamondbacks aren’t approaching the offseason as a rebuilder or traditional “seller,” however. To that end, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported this week Arizona has no plans to trade Zac Gallen or Merrill Kelly this offseason. Dealing away either of their top two starters — each of whom is controllable through 2025 — never seemed especially  likely after Arizona’s somewhat promising end to the season, particularly with the club having a number of unproven options at the back end. Rosenthal suggests the D-Backs would unsurprisingly be open to shedding some of the two years and $37MM remaining on Madison Bumgarner’s contract, although finding another team willing to take a notable chunk of that money probably isn’t happening unless Arizona shoulders an undesirable contract in return.

The Opener: Astros, Options, Diamondbacks

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Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR! Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.

With the final game of the 2022 MLB season coming as soon as tomorrow night, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:

1. Astros Facing Decisions On Baker, Click

After a hard-fought Game 5 that afforded Justin Verlander his first pitcher win in the World Series, the Astros will look to clinch back home in Houston tomorrow night. As soon as they do, however, they’ll have to face the personnel decisions that their postseason run has put on hold to this point. Both manager Dusty Baker and GM James Click are on expiring contracts, and Astros owner Jim Crane will have to decide their futures with the franchise. The Astros are expected to ask Baker to return in 2023, and Baker has indicated that he would like to continue managing regardless of the outcome of this postseason run. The future is murkier for Click, however, as speculation has run rampant throughout the postseason that he may not be asked to return to Houston in 2023, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post mentioning the uncertainty surrounding Click’s future as recently as last night. While it’s surprising to see so much uncertainty around a GM who has captured back-to-back AL pennants and might add a World Series championship to his resume as soon as tomorrow night, reports of a personality clash between Crane and Click abound. Heyman suggests that the Astros may be interested in David Stearns, who served as their assistant GM prior to running Milwaukee’s front office. While Stearns has stepped down as president of baseball operations for the Brewers, he’s not likely to run the Astros or any other team during the 2023 season, for which he is still under contract in Milwaukee. Even if the Astros are indeed interested in Stearns as their long-term head of baseball operations, the question of who will be at the helm in Houston next season remains unanswered.

2. Option Decisions Loom

A number of players and teams are facing option decisions, and with the World Series set to end this weekend, those decisions will have to be made sometime next week. While some decisions, such as that of Nolan Arenado, have already been made, most are still up in the air. Anthony Rizzo, Jurickson Profar, and Jake Odorizzi are among the players with tougher decisions facing them on whether or not to test free agency. As for club options, the Dodgers have one of the tougher calls on Justin Turner’s $16MM option, as do the Brewers on Kolten Wong’s $10MM option. Additionally, many of the biggest names on the free agent market this season, such as Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Correa, and Xander Bogaerts, are technically not set to be free agents until they opt-out of their current contracts, though for decisions as clear as these this is little more than a formality.

3. Arizona Faces Outfield Logjam

Despite finishing the regular season with an unimpressive 74-88 record, the Diamondbacks are by no means a team without talent. Unfortunately for Arizona, however, a great deal of that talent overlaps heavily, as the team is flush with young, controllable, lefty-hitting outfielders. Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas highlight the bunch in terms of prospect pedigree, but Jake McCarthy had a breakout season in 2022, Daulton Varsho turned in a quality season as an everyday player spending most of his time in the outfield, Pavin Smith won’t be eligible for arbitration until after next season, and Dominic Fletcher is knocking on the door in Triple-A. Between the DH and some positional versatility — Varsho caught 175 innings in 2022, while Smith played a bit of first base — Arizona could find at-bats for most, or perhaps even all, of these players. A better solution for the Diamondbacks, though, would be to explore trades for one or two of these young players in order to shore up their pitching staff or address other holes in the lineup. Carroll and Varsho would likely be off-limits, but perhaps a team looking to get more left-handed bats into the lineup, such as either Chicago team or the Marlins, could be interested in acquiring McCarthy, Smith, or Fletcher. While it’s not inconceivable Thomas could be moved, after a rough start to his major league career in 2022, Arizona would likely be selling low on him in any deal.

Hazen: D-Backs To Pursue Bullpen Help, Open To Adding At Catcher

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The Diamondbacks had a quietly solid second half, setting themselves up for an interesting offseason. Arizona’s 73-89 overall record is obviously far from where they want to be, but the team has seen a number of young position players begin to produce at the major league level.

General manager Mike Hazen addressed the roster during his end-of-season media session yesterday. He provided a rundown of areas the club will look to address this winter (link via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic).

Unsurprisingly, Hazen suggested that adding to the bullpen will be a priority. The D-Backs ran out a well below-average relief group for a third consecutive season, finishing the year 25th in ERA (4.58). Arizona relievers ranked last in the big leagues in strikeout rate (19.7%) and 28th in swinging strike percentage (10.9%). Hazen flatly stated improving the bullpen’s strikeout numbers will be a priority, suggesting the club will look into higher-velocity arms to that end.

Arizona added a pair of veteran relievers, Mark Melancon and Ian Kennedy, in free agency last winter. Kennedy was coming off an above-average 27.2% strikeout percentage with the Rangers and Phillies in 2021, but he stumbled to a 19% strikeout rate while losing a tick on his average fastball this season. Melancon hasn’t been a high-strikeout arm for years, and he posted a 4.66 ERA during his first season in the desert after posting a sub-3.00 mark in each of the previous two years. Melancon will be back next season on a $6MM salary, while Kennedy is a virtual lock to be bought out.

Of the 17 D-Backs relievers to top 10 innings pitched, only four had a swinging strike rate better than the 11.8% league average. Only one member of that group, All-Star lefty Joe Mantiply, is a lock to return. Arizona has already parted with Noé Ramirez, while Keynan Middleton and Caleb Smith were both extremely homer-prone and seem likely to be non-tendered.

The D-Backs aren’t going to make a run at a top-of-the-market free agent reliever like Edwin Díaz, but pitchers like Trevor May, Adam Ottavino and Miguel Castro are all hitting free agency after posting quality swing-and-miss numbers. Robert Suarez, who has a $5MM player option for next year with the Padres, and Carlos Estévez are among the hardest-throwing relievers who’ll be available. Hazen also suggested the front office would be more amenable than they’ve been in recent years to dealing young talent for relief help.

While the bullpen will be a key target area, it’s certainly not the only spot on the roster the D-Backs will be open to adding. Hazen indicated the club could look into offensive help, pointing to catcher as a position they could address. Carson Kelly has been the primary backstop for the past four seasons, but he’s never made the strides as a hitter the team had hoped when adding him as a central piece of the Paul Goldschmidt trade. Kelly looked as if he was on the way to his breakout with an excellent first two months in 2021, but that year was thrown off track by a right wrist fracture in late June. In the season and a half since that point, Kelly owns a .214/.287/.344 line in 526 trips to the plate.

While Hazen praised the 28-year-old’s defensive ability, he added that “chasing a little more offense at that position, given what the rest of the roster could look like, is something that we might take a look at.” It’d register as a surprise if they make a run at the top free agent at the position, Willson Contreras, but Arizona does have a fair amount of long-term financial flexibility. The Snakes have roughly $59MM on next season’s books (not including projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players) and just $38MM committed by 2024.

There aren’t many definitive offensive upgrades other than Contreras available in free agency, but the trade market figures to feature a couple of the sport’s better two-way backstops. The A’s Sean Murphy will be eligible for arbitration for the first time and could be available as Oakland continues its roster overhaul. Murphy hit .250/.322/.426 through 612 plate appearances, offense that checks in 22 points better than league average by measure of wRC+. It’s also possible the Blue Jays leverage their stockpile of catching depth for help elsewhere, moving a player like Danny Jansen on the heels of a .260/.339/.516 showing.

Whether at catcher or another position, Hazen suggested adding a right-handed bat to the mix was a possibility, as Arizona’s in-house lineup skews left-handed. Among their current projected regulars, only Kelly, first baseman Christian Walker and shortstop Nick Ahmed hit right-handed. Kelly, who’d be due a raise on this season’s $3.325MM salary via arbitration, could be non-tendered if the Snakes find an upgrade at catcher. Ahmed isn’t a lock to return to everyday duty after missing almost all of this season with a shoulder injury, and he’s a bottom-of-the-lineup defensive specialist even when at full strength.

The D-Backs have a number of lefty-swinging outfielders, all of whom are capable of playing all three outfield spots. Corbin Carroll and Daulton Varsho were top minor league talents, and both played well this season. Carroll didn’t make his MLB debut until late August, but both he and Varsho are guaranteed everyday reps going into next year. Jake McCarthy wasn’t the same level of prospect, but he hit .283/.342/.427 over 354 trips to the dish in 2022. Alek Thomas didn’t perform well in the majors, hitting .231/.275/.344 over 411 plate appearances. Still, he’s an excellent defensive outfielder and entered this season as a top prospect.

That quartet has varying levels of trade value — Carroll and Varsho would have more appeal than McCarthy or Thomas — but there’s reason for optimism among all of that group. It’s hard to envision the Diamondbacks parting with Carroll or Varsho, but dealing one of McCarthy or Thomas seems possible. Hazen unsurprisingly noted he doesn’t feel he has to trade anyone, pointing to the ability to rotate them through the designated hitter position, but he sounded amenable to a move in the right circumstance. “Take a left-handed hitting outfielder and turn him into a right-handed hitting slugger, yeah, I can see that puzzle coming together,” Hazen said (via Piecoro). “It’s not going to be taking one of those guys and trading them for prospects in that type of way.”

Theoretically the D-Backs could also leverage their outfield depth to add starting pitching behind the top duo of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. While Arizona has a number of interesting young arms at or near the MLB level — Drey Jameson, Ryne Nelson, Brandon Pfaadt and Blake Walston among them — there’s still a fair bit of uncertainty with any unproven young pitcher. Madison Bumgarner, whom the club signed to a five-year deal to be the staff ace, hasn’t come close to matching his previous production in San Francisco. The four-time All-Star has an ERA of 4.67 or higher in all three of his seasons as a Diamondback, including a 4.88 mark with just a 16% strikeout rate through 30 starts this year.

Bumgarner has two years and $37MM remaining on his deal, and the D-Backs would be hard-pressed to find a taker for any notable portion of that money on the trade market. Hazen suggested the 33-year-old will have an inside track at a rotation job heading into next season but implied his leash could be getting shorter. “I do think incumbency probably matters when you’re going into spring training, for sure, especially with the younger guys that we have,” the GM said of Bumgarner’s status. “But if the expectation next year is going to be moving the ball forward from where we are right now, we are going to be making decisions that we need to make as we need to make them.”

D-Backs fans will want to read through Piecoro’s piece in full, as it contains myriad quotes from Hazen on the status of the roster and the organization’s offseason plans.

The D-backs’ Promising Outfield Gives Them Plenty Of Offseason Flexibility

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Diamondbacks catcher/outfielder Daulton Varsho has impressed so much in the outfield this season that his days behind the plate could be drawing to a close, writes Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Varsho tells Piecoro that he’s even surprised himself with how well he’s taken to the outfield.

A former top-100 prospect, the 26-year-old former top prospect has drawn immaculate grades for his outfield defense in 2022, tallying 14 Defensive Runs Saved and, according to Statcast, 13 Outs Above Average and 12 Runs Above Average. Those are cumulative totals, so it’s worth noting that Varsho has also spent 175 innings behind the plate this year; had he been a full-time outfielder, those defensive marks would’ve likely been even more eye-catching.

Varsho, who says it’s a personal goal of his to win a Gold Glove, added that he’s not content with his current level of outfield play, citing a few near-catches he missed (on what would’ve been highlight-reel efforts). Varsho labeled himself a perfectionist and spoke of small, incremental gains he could still make in his defensive game — “…[I]f I can add an extra inch by not having to look at the wall and understanding what I can do to get better…” — as part of his hopeful evolution.

Of course, Varsho is far more than just a strong glove in the outfield. He’s built on a solid showing at the plate last summer and turned in a .243/.311/.457 batting line this season, swatting 23 home runs, 20 doubles and three triples while chipping in eight stolen bases (albeit in 14 attempts). It’s a solid, well-round skill set that could leave him as a fixture in center or right field, depending on how the remainder of the Diamondbacks’ young outfield pans out.

Corbin Carroll, regarded as one of the sport’s top prospects — if not the top prospect — prior to his promotion earlier this month, gives Arizona a potential high-impact talent to pair with Varsho in the long term. He’s followed up a combined .307/.425/.611 batting line in the minors this year with a .281/.324/.469 showing through his first eight big league games and now has 24 home runs and 31 steals between the minors and big leagues combined.

Add in the likes of Alek Thomas, himself a top-100 prospect prior to this season’s debut, and 25-year-old Jake McCarthy, who has surpassed all expectations with a strong debut campaign of his own, and the outfield group in Phoenix looks particularly promising. The 22-year-old Thomas has cooled after a solid start and is batting .249/.295/.373 on the season but has turned in plus defensive marks in center. McCarthy, meanwhile, is batting .288/.348/.455 with seven homers, 14 doubles, two triples and a 15-for-16 showing in stolen bases.

It’s a talented, albeit entirely left-handed, group of outfielders around which to build. That there are four players for three spots might make it tempting to continue deploying Varsho behind the dish at times, but his elite play in the outfield would be lost in that scenario. Manager Torey Lovullo told Piecoro that there are no plans for Varsho to start behind the plate for the remainder of the season, further pointing to a long-term move away from the position.

It’s a bit early to label the quartet of lefty-hitting outfielders a true “surplus.” Thomas’ offense has been below average, and it’s fair to wonder whether McCarthy can sustain production that’s been bolstered by a .347 average on balls in play — particularly when he’s making hard contact at a below-average clip. Statcast pegs his “expected” batting average and slugging percentage at .259 and .367 — both well shy of his current marks. Carroll is a top-five prospect in baseball, but he also just turned 22 in late August, so it’s not a given that he’ll immediately break out into stardom.

Still, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wonders about the possibility of the Diamondbacks utilizing this group of outfielders to bolster the rotation over the winter. There are plenty of teams with outfield needs who’d love to acquire a controllable long-term player to step right onto the 2023 roster.  Varsho is controlled through 2026, McCarthy through 2027 and both Thomas and Carroll through at least 2028. Speculating a bit, the Marlins are known to still be looking for their center fielder of the future and have plenty of pitching to dangle in talks with the D-backs. Arizona and Miami previously lined up on a Zac Gallen-for-Jazz Chisholm swap that has benefited both clubs, though the Marlins’ front office has turned over a good bit since that time.

Trading from that quartet of outfielders would thin out the Diamondbacks’ outfield depth, quite likely in a significant way, but they do have some other options on the 40-man roster, including the right-handed-hitting Stone Garrett, who’s out to a blistering MLB debut himself after a nice showing in Triple-A. The free-agent market would also present several affordable, short-term options to plug into the outfield mix, and finding a useful complementary outfielder on the open market is quite a bit easier than finding the type of potentially impact arm that a trade of someone like Thomas could bring.

However general manager Mike Hazen and his staff choose to proceed this winter, the play of the team’s young outfielders will give them plenty of options. And with a lot clicking elsewhere on the roster — Arizona is 26-19 since the All-Star break, a .578 winning percentage — the D-backs could be a shrewd offseason move or two away from reasserting themselves in the National League West more quickly than most would anticipate.

Diamondbacks Promote Corbin Carroll

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Aug. 29: The Diamondbacks have officially announced Carroll’s selection, with Luplow being optioned in a corresponding move.

Aug, 28: The Diamondbacks are planning on promoting outfield prospect Corbin Carroll for Monday’s game, reports Steve Gilbert of MLB.com. Carroll is not currently on the club’s 40-man roster, though they already have a vacancy there. A corresponding move will be required to get him onto the active roster.

This will be something of a belated birthday present for the youngster, who just turned 22 years old a week ago. Selected with the 16th overall pick in the 2019 draft, Carroll has been one of the most intriguing prospect in Arizona’s system ever since. Baseball America ranked him 5th in the organization and 90th in all of baseball in 2020, before Carroll jumped to Arizona’s #1 slot in 2021. He’s currently ranked 5th overall by BA, 3rd by FanGraphs, while ESPN and Keith Law of The Athletic consider him the best prospect in the sport.

The fact that Carroll is so highly regarded is hardly surprising, given his tremendous performance on the field thus far in his career. After being drafted in 2019, at just 18 years of age, he got into 42 games between rookie ball and low-A, hitting .299/.409/.487 in that span. The pandemic wiped out the minors in 2020, but Carroll reportedly continued to impress at the club’s alternate training site that year. 2021 was a mostly lost season, as Carroll tore the capsule of his non-throwing shoulder, ending his campaign after just seven games.

Corbin Carroll

However, Carroll has gotten right back on track here in 2022, showing no ill effects from the shoulder surgery he underwent last year. Through 58 Double-A games, he hit 16 home runs, stole 20 bases and walked in 14.8% of his plate appearances. His .313/.430/.643 batting line was 66% better than league average by measure of wRC+. He was promoted to Triple-A and has played 33 games there thus far, hitting seven more long balls, swiping 11 more bags and hitting .287/.408/.535, wRC+ of 135.

Defensively, Carroll has primarily played center field in the minors, though with some time in the corners as well. It’s unclear where the Diamondbacks intend to play Carroll in the majors, but they will have an embarrassment of young talent in the outfield either way. Alek Thomas, himself a highly regarded prospect coming into the year, was promoted in May and has been getting the lion’s share of playing time in center. He’s hit just .243/.294/.369 through his first 92 MLB games for an 84 wRC+, though his glovework has been highly rated across the board.

Beside Carroll and Thomas, the club has many options to fill out the remainder of its outfield picture. Daulton Varsho and Jake McCarthy are both having strong seasons as well and each comes with at least four years of club control beyond this one. Stone Garrett was also recently called up, having hit very well in a five-game showing so far. Jordan Luplow is also on hand due to his strong numbers against lefties. He’s slumped a bit in that regard this season but could be retained via arbitration for another two seasons if he still fits into Arizona’s plans. Assuming Carroll sticks with the big league club the rest of the season, he will earn just over a month of service time, putting him on track to reach free agency after the 2028 campaign, unless future optional assignments end up pushing that back.

It’s been a rough few years in the desert, with the D-Backs currently 59-67, likely to finish below .500 for a third straight season. However, they have already guaranteed themselves a record well ahead of last year’s 52-100 mark, with plenty of reasons to be excited about the future. Their stockpile of young, cheap and controllable outfield talent is perhaps the best reason to feel hopeful, with Carroll considered by many to be the most exciting of the bunch. Over the remaining few weeks of the schedule, the club will give him a chance to show his skills at the sport’s biggest stage and potentially lock down a place on the grass for years to come.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Big Hype Prospects: Chourio, De La Cruz, Harrison, Tovar, Tiedemann

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Trade deadline content is finally in the rearview mirror. Baseball America put out a spicy August update to their Top 100 rankings. So too did The Athletic’s Keith Law. We’ll talk about some of the biggest movers and discrepancies.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Chourio, 18, OF, MIL (A+)
72 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .270/.333/.429

Chourio began generating hype during extended Spring Training when it became apparent that he possessed all the traits teams look for in Statcast-era prospects. Baseball America recently ranked him as the game’s second-best prospect while Law tagged him third. Either way, it’s quite the climb for a player who was unranked prior to the season. He made short work of Low-A opponents (.324/.373/.600), albeit with an elevated strikeout rate. Upon promotion to High-A, he’s trimmed his strikeout rate while holding his own against much older competition. He’s currently on pace to reach the Majors as a 20-year-old and might even debut next season (unlikely). He’s already a big league caliber center fielder. We’re just waiting for his bat to prove it at each stop along the way.

Elly De La Cruz, 20, SS, CIN (AA)
84 PA, 5 HR, 7 SB, .304/.345/.620

After his 2021 breakout, which was built upon the twin pillars of loud Statcast measurables and enticing results in the lowest levels, De La Cruz has only improved upon his success. Thanks to his size (6’5″) and incredible athleticism, comparisons to Oneil Cruz are nearly unavoidable. Even Fernando Tatis Jr. comes to mind. That’s because, despite his youth, De La Cruz is clearly a man among boys. You can’t help but notice when he takes the field. Naysayers will point to poor discipline and hefty whiff rates. His proponents will break out the numbers. He has 25 home runs and 35 stolen bases across 390 plate appearances this season. His contact profile is best described as “laser show,” complete with a .389 BABIP. Nobody is even sure that he won’t develop discipline against actual competition. He’s yet to experience true adversity.

Law is sold, ranking de la Cruz eighth overall. The Baseball America crew – who were among the first to move on him last season – remain a bit more cautious. He’s 22nd on their list.

Kyle Harrison, 21, SP, SFG (AA)
57.1 IP, 13.19 K/9, 4.71 BB/9, 2.83 ERA

During the course of this season, both of the aforementioned list-makers bumped Harrison up from the back end of their Top 100 to within the Top 20. Harrison’s results speak for themselves. He’s dominated Double-A competition as a 20-year-old. (Today is his 21st birthday!) His slider is one of the most effective breaking pitches in the minors, in part due to a deceptive delivery. Said deceptiveness could factor into his elevated walk rate, which will be something to watch as he continues to ascend the ladder. He might be the kind of “wild” that plays better in the Majors than the minors (see Camilo Doval as an example). Harrison has a floor as a shutdown reliever, but he should comfortably stick in the rotation.

Ezequiel Tovar, 21, SS, COL (AA)
295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545

Per Baseball America, Tovar rated as the ninth-best prospect in the Rockies’ system entering this season. Given the general antipathy for Rockies prospects these days, it goes without saying he was unranked on leaguewide Top 100 lists. He’s improved upon a balanced approach as a hitter – both in the types of contact he makes and the directionality of his batted balls. Tovar’s even added a touch of plate discipline. While just about every hitter is better at Coors Field, Tovar is the sort of player who can take maximum advantage of the spacious venue.

Tovar is currently sidelined with a groin injury. He’s now 14th on the Baseball America list and 25th for The Athletic.

Ricky Tiedemann, 19, SP, TOR (AA)
(A+) 37.2 IP, 12.90 K/9, 2.87 BB/9, 2.39 ERA

Tiedemann, soon to turn 20, has pitched at three levels this season for a total of 70.2 innings. He recently debuted at Double-A with three near-flawless innings. Like Tovar, he entered the season as the ninth-ranked prospect in his organization’s system. Now, he’s 31st in the game for Baseball America and 41st for Law. If he maintains his results, he could soon be considered a Top 10 overall prospect. I get the sense publicly available reports haven’t yet caught up with Tiedemann. They certainly don’t match his results. There are references to below average command and a mix of three “above-average” offerings. If the command is truly minus and he doesn’t have at least one double-plus pitch, I would expect higher ERAs. Either he’s filling the zone with hittable pitches and getting away with it, or his stuff dominates in-zone, OR his command isn’t actually minus. A fourth alternative – he’s been a little lucky over some small samples.

In any event, Tiedemann’s rise is rapid. It’s telling that he wasn’t traded at the deadline.

Five More

Gunnar Henderson, BAL (21): Henderson has already been covered ad nauseum in this column. He’s the number one prospect per Baseball America. Law rates him as second best. While this is technically his age 21 season, his June 29 birthday means he’s a young 21. His advanced feel for hitting is all the more impressive.

Corbin Carroll, ARI (21): Carroll too has seen plenty of favorable words on these pages. He’s Law’s top prospect and ranks fifth for the BA staff. An interesting juxtaposition with Henderson, Carroll is an old 21-year-old. He’ll turn 22 in a little over a week. Of course, without the lost COVID year and a lengthy injury in 2021, Carroll would probably be in the Majors right now.

Noelvi Marte, CIN (20): I’ve had some interesting behind-the-scenes conversations about Marte. Earlier in the season, a source suggested to me that Marte might be overrated because he punished less physically developed opponents. The implication was that he might cool against more advanced competition. After relaying this detail, I received pushback from a separate source disputing that notion. This is what analysts mean when they say a prospect is contentious. In any event, Marte held serve on Law’s list, checking in at 12th. Baseball America places him 35th – a slight improvement over their last update. Since joining the Reds’ High-A affiliate, he’s batting .229/.282/.429 with two home runs and a steal in 39 plate appearances.

Evan Carter, TEX (19): Carter was making headway towards Top 100 lists in early 2021 before a season-ending injury left him stranded with just 146 plate appearances. He ascended to High-A this season and has hit like a champ; .285/.376/.484 with 10 home runs and 22 steals in 395 plate appearances. He has plate discipline and an advanced feel for contact. This is the starter kit for a polished and highly valuable hitter, non-superstar division. BA has him 43rd.

Josh Jung, TEX, (24): This last one isn’t about the rankings (roughly 50th on both lists). Jung is back in action, demonstrating power and discipline over 44 rehab plate appearances. He has three games in Triple-A and could soon reach the Majors. Remember, he was a candidate to make the Rangers out of Spring Training. While they could play service shenanigans to gain control of his age-31 season, it might behoove the club more to get his feet wet.

Editor’s Note: this post was inadvertently published under Steve Adams’ byline at first. Apologies to Brad.

Diamondbacks Open To Trading From Outfield Depth

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The Diamondbacks enter play Thursday with a 37-45 record, six games back of the Cardinals and Phillies for the National League’s final playoff spot. Barring an unexpected strong run over the next three and a half weeks, they seem likely to move shorter-term players for future value for a third consecutive season.

That’ll lead to a fair bit of speculation about veteran trade candidates like Zach Davies and Ian Kennedy, but Arizona could find themselves in position to move a player with a bit more club control in recognition of a mounting outfield surplus. The D-Backs have gotten encouraging early-career showings from Daulton Varsho and Alek Thomas, who look to be blossoming into members of the club’s next long-term core. They’ll be joined by Corbin Carroll, one of the sport’s top overall prospects, in the not too distant future. With that trio reaching or nearing the majors and warranting regular playing time, some of Arizona’s other outfielders could get squeezed out of the mix.

General manager Mike Hazen acknowledged as much, telling Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic the club is “open to discussing” trades involving some of the outfielders on the roster. Arizona has a few generally unproven but affordable depth options. Jake McCarthy and Pavin Smith are former solidly-regarded prospects who have reached the majors over the past couple years. Both had seen their stocks drop in the eyes of most evaluators by the time they reached the big leagues, and neither has hit especially well in limited MLB time to date. Cooper Hummel, whom Arizona acquired from the Brewers in last summer’s Eduardo Escobar trade, doesn’t have much of a prospect pedigree but owns a .316/.439/.539 line in a bit more than 400 career Triple-A plate appearances.

With each still in their mid-20’s and more than a season away from arbitration-eligibility, it’s easy to envision teams having some amount of interest in any or all of that group. (The chances of a Smith trade were dealt a blow when he fractured his right wrist in a minor league game over the weekend). Certainly, none of that trio would bring back a massive return. As Piecoro notes, all three are generally viewed by evaluators as fourth or fifth outfield types at this stage of their careers. Each could hold a bit more value and find an easier path to long-term playing time with another team that doesn’t have as much of a glut of upper minors options as the D-Backs do, however. Piecoro suggests Arizona could look to balance the organization by dealing one or more for an infield or pitching prospect of interest.

There’d of course be plenty more calls if the D-Backs were willing to make any of Varsho, Thomas or Carroll available. That’s less likely, as Hazen expressed a desire to build a core for the fanbase to “latch onto.” He’s spoken in past deadlines about “anchoring” around certain players, culminating in a Spring Training extension for Ketel Marte and a reluctance to part with staff ace Zac Gallen. While he didn’t explicitly rule out dealing anyone on the roster, Hazen downplayed the possibility of parting with a potential core piece. “Constantly rolling out young players for the next young player, I don’t really foresee that being the strategy we’re going to take,” Hazen told Piecoro. “You never want to be close-minded to the things that could happen, but that wouldn’t be a scenario I would chase.”

In addition to the unproven but controllable collection of outfielders, the D-Backs have a pair of veteran role players who could draw some interest from 2022 contenders. Jordan Luplow, acquired from the Rays over the offseason, isn’t having a great season overall but he’s popped seven home runs in 68 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. He’s a career .237/.352/.545 hitter against southpaws and could hold some appeal as a right-handed platoon corner outfield option. Luplow is playing this season on a $1.4MM salary and remains controllable via arbitration through 2024.

David Peralta, meanwhile, has spent all nine of his MLB seasons with the D-Backs. After a few down years offensively, he’s rebounded to post a solid .250/.318/.470 line with 11 longballs in 258 plate appearances. Peralta has seen a dramatic uptick in both his fly-ball rate and hard contact percentage. The new approach has come with a career-high 12.7% swinging strike rate, but the veteran is hitting for more power than he has since a 30-homer 2018 campaign.

Peralta turns 35 years old in August, and he’s playing this season on a $7.5MM salary (a bit less than half of which is still to be paid out). Between his well-regarded clubhouse presence and solid offensive showing, contenders looking for left-handed outfield help but unwilling to meet the Royals’ asking price on Andrew Benintendi could view Peralta as a decent fallback option. At his age and with the aforementioned stockpile of younger options in Arizona, a trade seems likelier than another contract extension.

In a chat with Piecoro earlier this week, Peralta acknowledged that his run with the franchise could be nearing its end. “Like I always say — and I’m not going to get tired of saying it — I want to stay in this organization,” he said. “But I know that on the other side it’s a business, right? You have to think of it that way. If something happens, it’ll hurt, because this is the only organization I know. But if it happens, I’ll just have to take it and move forward.”

Peralta noted that a trade would afford him the opportunity to compete for a playoff spot this season, but he indicated his preference would be to stick with Arizona for the long haul. After joking he could start to play worse to reduce his own trade value and ensure he finishes out the season with the D-Backs, Peralta more seriously indicated he’s willing to stay with the club beyond this year. “It depends on what the Diamondbacks are going to do, what their goals are,” Peralta said about the possibility of re-signing. “I’m always going to be open to playing here. I would love to stay here for the rest of my career. It would mean a lot to me. But we’ll see what’s going to happen.“

Big Hype Prospects: Rutschman, Carroll, Yorke, Peraza, Tovar

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This week, we touch on a couple impending prospect graduates and look ahead for potential future promotions.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Adley Rutschman, 24, C, BAL (MLB)

129 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .220/.287/.407

Rutschman’s prospect eligibility will officially expire with his next plate appearance. In a recent fantasy chat, I received a question about his disappointing performance to date. Contrary to that framing, I’ve found his play to be highly encouraging even if he hasn’t immediately incinerated all competition. His current triple-slash is good for a 96 wRC+. That’s only four percent worse than the average Major Leaguer. This season, there are only 18 catchers with a better wRC+ and at least 100 plate appearances. Rutschman is sandwiched between Sean Murphy and Daulton Varsho. He’s ahead of a slumping J.T. Realmuto. This is not a bad way to debut.

Moreover, he’s performed well in every facet of the game. Even his baserunning has contributed positively. His strikeout rate is better than league average. He swings at considerably fewer pitches out of the zone than the average hitter. He swings more often in-zone. His exit velocities are above average. His launch angle is a tad steep at present, a symptom of a couple extra infield flies. He hasn’t had issues with those in the past and will probably adjust. His current .253 BABIP has room to expand northwards, and his strikeouts could decline below his already-good rate.

Rutschman never projected as a Trout-ian hitter so it’s unfair to have expected more from his first 129 plate appearances. His value to the Orioles comes from a well-rounded skill set that lacks for notable weaknesses at a famously light-hitting position.

Corbin Carroll, 21, SS, SDP (AA)

277 PA, 16 HR, 20 SB, .313/.430/.643

Few players are more overdue for a promotion than Carroll. Diamondbacks personnel are on the record as stating he won’t skip Triple-A like Braves prospect Michael Harris. That makes sense. The Braves called upon Harris to support their title defense. The Diamondbacks are fading fast in their Wild Card chase. Barring a couple miracle weeks, they’re on their way to selling at the trade deadline. There’s no urgency to bring Carroll to Chase Field this season.

Carroll is currently on the injured list with an undisclosed injury. He finished June with a .366/.452/.704 slash in 84 plate appearances. For those hoping to see Carroll in the Majors this season, multiple regulars might need to be cleared out of the way. Arizona has excellent outfield depth in the upper minors. They’ve been frantically assessing the likes of Jake McCarthy, Cooper Hummel, and Pavin Smith to determine which will support the future outfield of Carroll, Varsho, and Alek Thomas and which should be expended.

Nick Yorke, 20, 2B, (A+)

198 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB, .235/.308/.346

Some observers mocked the Red Sox when they selected Yorke in the first round of the 2020 draft. He proceeded to have a truly excellent 2021 campaign split between Low- and High-A. He returned to High-A this spring for what many hoped would be a brief stint. Instead, he appears to have stalled.

Part of the issue is health-based. A case of turf-toe held him out for most of a month. He returned on June 21 and has looked rusty since – .179/.258/.286 with a 38.7 percent strikeout rate in 31 plate appearances. Scouting reports tend to be complementary of Yorke’s gamesmanship, believing he’ll play well beyond what can only be described as ordinary scouting tools.

Based solely on his performance data, my theory is he attempted to sell out for more power this season. His pulled contact rate increased sharply as did his swinging strike rates. It could also be a simple matter of better pitching in the low minors this season. Pitching inventories were completely exhausted last year due to many clubs carefully managing their best arms on the heels of the lost COVID season. Regardless of explanation, Yorke’s reputation as a grinder with a good baseball IQ suggests he should overcome this temporary setback. He’s still on pace to be one of the youngest players in Double-A later this season.

Oswald Peraza, 22, SS, NYY (AAA)

249 PA, 9 HR, 16 SB, .240/.309/.404

There’s a certain tyranny to developmental expectations these days. Peraza razed High-A in 2021 then performed well-enough in Double-A to earn a brief call-up to Triple-A. The Yankees returned him to Triple-A at the start of this season, but it might have been more appropriate to continue his development in Double-A. His plate approach could use refinement. He appears to have the raw tools and judgment to be disciplined but instead errs on the side of aggression. His swing is balanced and covers the zone well, especially low-to-high. I perceive some potential for big league pitchers to successfully nibble the outer edge against him, but that’s just me editorializing. I haven’t seen that mentioned in any scouting reports.

Peraza has a high-floor approach as a defensively capable shortstop with sufficient contact skills to keep his head above water. He’s also on the 40-man roster and might be the only plausible option to fill in if Gleyber Torres or Isiah Kiner-Falefa ever need an extended absence.

Ezequiel Tovar, 20, SS, COL (AA)

295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545

Entering this season, scouting reports focused on Tovar’s defensive prowess while downplaying his potential to hit for power. FanGraphs went so far as to comp him to a “right-handed Nicky Lopez.” The minor league stats aren’t really matching those paltry expectations.

Last season, Tovar delivered 11 home runs in 326 Low-A plate appearances. It’s uncommon for 19-year-olds to deliver a home run every 30 plate appearances – even the ones we think will one day hit for power. As you can see, he’s performing similarly in Double-A this season as one of the youngest players in the league. He currently leads the Eastern League in batting average and ranks fourth in wOBA (Gunnar Henderson still qualifies for the lead).

The main critique of Tovar is his willingness to expand the strike zone. This leads to a low walk rate, too many swinging strikes, and, as he advances, risk of weak contact on balls outside the zone. The other side of the coin is this – he expands the zone because he’s talented enough to do so. The right adjustments could unlock an incredible outcome – and another elite shortstop for the Rockies franchise.

Five More

Triston Casas, BOS (22): An ankle injury has kept Casas out of action since mid-May. He might have missed a chance to squeeze onto the big league roster. Presently, Bobby Dalbec and Franchy Cordero are performing decently as a first base platoon, but there was a window when Dalbec looked to have fallen out of favor. Casas has resumed fielding work and hitting off a tee. He should progress to game scenarios soon.

DL Hall, BAL (23): The good news for Hall is he’s pitching deeper into his outings. He’s averaged 21 batters faced over his last four starts which is right on par with the workload handled by short-burst starters in the Majors. The bad news is, in those four starts, he’s allowed 16 runs (11 earned) over just 16.2 innings. The two most recent outings – both against the Phillies affiliate – are to blame. He issued 10 walks against only five strikeouts in those appearances. Walks (6.57 BB/9) have been a season-long issue.

Michael Harris, ATL (21): Like Rutschman, this could be Harris’ last episode of BHP as a prospect-eligible player. He’s already at 118 plate appearances and should surpass the 130-plate appearance rookie-threshold by the end of the weekend. His early success (139 wRC+) comes with a few red flags. He’s needed a .402 BABIP and a hyperaggressive approach to overcome an elevated 14.9 percent swinging strike rate. Projection systems believe he’ll regress to slightly below league average as a hitter.

Ivan Herrera, STL (22): The heir apparent to Yadier Molina, Herrera has seen semi-regular action in the Majors while Molina is on the mend from a knee injury. His first taste of the Majors hasn’t gone well yet. He has just two hits, two walks, and seven strikeouts in 18 plate appearances. However, he hit well in Triple-A (.291/.388/.436) and figures to settle in as a plus-defender with a knack for barreled, low-angle contact.

Josh Smith, TEX (24): A key component of the Joey Gallo trade, Smith recently returned from the injured list and has held his own in the Majors. He’s batting an OBP-centric .258/.439/.290. He has a similar hit tool and plate discipline to Rays utility man Taylor Walls with a little more built-in power. He gives every indication of becoming at least a league average hitter who can man most positions.



D-backs Notes: Straily, Carroll, Lawlar, Barfield

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Newly signed Diamondbacks righty Dan Straily chatted with The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan at length about his decision to sign with Arizona and his goals of reestablishing himself as a quality big league starter after a strong two-year run in the Korea Baseball Organization. Straily indicated that he had multiple offers but chose to sign with the D-backs for several reasons, including a good opportunity to earn a roster spot out of the gate and relative proximity (a two-hour flight) to his family’s home in Oregon. He candidly acknowledged that he went to South Korea in need of major improvement — “I didn’t end up in Korea because I was ready to be in the major leagues at the time” — and discussed changes he’s made to his repertoire, including pitch grips, pitch shapes, and an entirely new pitch.

More broadly, fans will want to check out the whole Q&A to get a sense of Straily’s experiences pitching in a foreign league (and of being in the midst of KBO Spring Training when the pandemic broke out), his relationship with incoming pitching coach Brent Strom and the finer details of the work he’s put in to rebuild his career. Notably, Straily added that he considered waiting until the lockout ended to pursue a Major League contract but ultimately chose a minor league opportunity that allowed him to get rolling as quickly as possible. “We felt like it was time for me to get to work,” said Straily.

For those who missed it, Straily also chatted with MLBTR readers back in December. Within, Straily discussed the difference between pitching in the KBO and in MLB, recalled come key early-career advice from notable teammates, and shared plenty of memories from his time in the Majors and in South Korea.

A few more notes on the D-backs…

  • Buchanan also passes along a pair of updates on some of the system’s top prospects (Twitter link). Outfielder Corbin Carroll is back to 100 percent after last year’s season-ending shoulder surgery. The 21-year-old was the No. 16 overall pick in 2019 and is widely regarded as one of the sport’s top 50 overall prospects, even after his 2021 injury. Carroll sustained the injury on a swing that resulted in a home run in one of the just seven games he played with the Snakes’ High-A affiliate last season. He hasn’t had much of a look in the pros thanks to that surgery and the wiped-out 2020 minor league season, but Carroll owns a .316/.428/.542 batting line with four home runs, ten doubles, nine triples and 21 stolen bases (in 23 tries) through his first 215 professional plate appearances, dating back to 2019. He’s viewed as a possible long-term option in center field for the D-backs, though he has a good bit of development left after effectively missing two full years’ worth of reps in 2020-21.
  • Also on the mend from shoulder surgery is 2021 top draft selection Jordan Lawlar. The touted young shortstop and No. 6 overall pick sustained a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder not long after signing, limiting his professional debut to just two games with the D-backs’ Rookie-level affiliate. Lawlar, 19, is about a month behind Carroll in his rehab process, per Buchanan, and has not yet been cleared for batting practice. Like Carroll, Lawlar is a consensus top prospect, albeit one who has a bit more variance in terms of scouting reports on his future (which is perhaps to be expected given his lack of pro experience). Keith Law ranked Lawlar No. 31 among MLB prospects, noting that he had the “best package of tools” in the 2021 draft and adding that with Lawlar’s athleticism, speed, arm strength and power potential, he could be in the mix for the sport’s top overall prospect next year.
  • Josh Barfield spoke with Bill Ladson of MLB.com to discuss his journey from big league infielder, to scout, to his current role as Diamondbacks director of player development. Barfield “never saw [himself] getting into this side of the game” but now relishes his player development role and the challenges it presents. Citing mentors like former D-backs GM Dave Stewart, current GM Mike Hazen and his own predecessor Mike Bell, who tragically passed away last spring after a battle with kidney cancer, Barfield discussed how his love for player development and baseball operations has grown. His ultimate goal has now shifted from his early days as a scout, as he told Ladson he has his sights set on eventually becoming a general manager. While Barfield acknowledged that “there’s not too many of those jobs,” his interactions with Hazen and Stewart, as well as his “ultra-competitive” nature are now driving that ambition.
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