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Corbin Burnes

Quick Hits: Roster Sizes, Phillies, Yankees, Burnes

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Each offseason veteran players with experience at the upper levels of the minor leagues and in the majors routinely qualify for minor league free agency and test the open market in search of fresh minor league agreements with clubs willing to offer them an invite to major league Spring Training. Such arrangements have been increasingly difficult to come by this winter, however, and Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper recently explored a significant reason why.

As noted by Cooper, the new collective bargaining agreement between MLB and minor league players gave the league the right to limit the total number of domestic minor league players to just 165 ahead of the 2024 season, with a limit of 175 players during the offseason. Cooper notes that reduced figure slashes a total of 450 roster spots around the league or 15 per club. That limited roster flexibility gives clubs far less opportunity to offer minor league free agents deals that have long been considered “no-risk fliers,” as now clubs will often times be forced with potentially cutting a younger minor league player early in their professional career to make room for an interesting veteran journeyman.

While minor league deals are typically regarded as low-risk signings that are relatively unlikely to result in a given player making an impact at the big league level, one needn’t look very hard to find examples of players heading to camp on minor league deals only to provide considerable value to that club throughout the year. Dodgers outfielder Jason Heyward and Rangers outfielder Travis Jankowski are two examples of veteran hitters who came into camp on minor league deals last year, earned a spot on the Opening Day roster, and played well enough to earn a big-league deal with their respective clubs after returning to the open market this winter.

More from around Major League Baseball…

  • The Phillies have long been known to be on the hunt for another relief arm after losing veteran closer Craig Kimbrel in free agency this past winter, with the likes of Phil Maton and Jakob Junis reportedly on the club’s radar prior to the pair signing with the Rays and Brewers, respectively. That being said, Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer indicated this afternoon that the club is unlikely to pursue further bullpen additions this winter after adding depth starter Spencer Turnbull on a big league deal earlier today. While Turnbull has options remaining, he has enough service time at this point in his career to a refuse a minor league assignment. That leaves Philadelphia with minimal flexibility in their bullpen which would only be further reduced by the addition of another veteran arm. According to Lauber, six arms are all but locked into the club’s relief mix already, leaving just two spots for a group that includes non-optionable hurlers Turnbull, Connor Brogdon, Dylan Covey as well as optionable pieces like Yunior Marte, Kolby Allard, and Michael Rucker.
  • USA Today’s Bob Nightengale this morning indicated that the Yankees discussed right-hander Corbin Burnes with the Brewers prior to the ace being traded to their division rival in Baltimore, though the club “rebuffed” Milwaukee in talks once the club requested outfield prospect Spencer Jones in return for Burnes’s services. The 22-year-old Jones was the club’s first-round pick in the 2022 draft and has generally impressed to this point in his minor league career, though he struggled with a .261/.333/.406 in a 17-game stint at the Double-A level last year. Previous reporting indicated that New York was unwilling to include Jones in a package for White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease, so it’s not necessarily a surprise that the club also passed on parting with the youngster for a rental arm like Burnes.

MLBTR Podcast: The Sale of the Orioles, Corbin Burnes Traded and Bobby Witt Jr. Extended

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Orioles Notes: Burnes, Cease, Hicks

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The Orioles completed one of the offseason’s biggest trades in landing Corbin Burnes from the Brewers earlier this week, and it was a move that GM Mike Elias said the organization had been “talking about…since when the World Series ended.” It was heavily expected that the O’s would be looking for significant rotation help during the winter, and Elias shared some details on the search when speaking with reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko and MLB.com’s Jake Rill) on a conference call in the aftermath of the trade.

“Corbin Burnes is exactly what we needed.  We were in a dogged pursuit of him the entire offseason,” Elias said.  “Obviously, there were other starting pitchers who we pursued, but it’s harder to have somebody higher than Corbin Burnes on your wish list.  It’s a tremendous impact.”

Milwaukee’s side of the deal involved two big league-ready young players (Joey Ortiz and DL Hall) with top-100 prospect pedigrees, as well as the Orioles’ Competitive Balance Round draft pick (currently 34th overall in the 2024 draft order).  It was a noteworthy amount to give up even for a team as rich in minor league depth as the O’s, but Elias felt it was worth the plunge.

“We’re giving up a lot of long-term talent and also a couple of players that were going to contribute to the 2024 Orioles,” Elias said.  “So I mean, this is a risky move, but it lined up for both sides.  We weren’t going to force it necessarily, but our wish list was a rotation upgrade and I certainly think that the Cy Young winner and with his body of work qualifies as that. We couldn’t have found a better upgrade and now we just have to go play the games.”

While the Orioles’ offer was enough to sway the Brewers, it apparently wasn’t enough to get the White Sox to move Dylan Cease, another pitcher known to be on Baltimore’s list of potential targets.  USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the O’s “offered basically the same package” to White Sox, as well as an unknown additional player.  The larger size of the offer probably reflects the fact that Cease is arbitration-controlled through the 2025 season while Burnes is only controlled through 2024, yet it still wasn’t enough to meet Chicago’s asking price for Cease’s services.

Past reports have suggested that the Sox have a particular interest in Jordan Westburg, Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser, among many of Baltimore’s top prospects.  It can be assumed that none of these blue-chippers weren’t the mystery fourth part of the Orioles’ offer to Chicago, so speculatively, it could be that the White Sox asked for one of the trio as the top position-player piece instead of Ortiz.  Considering that the Sox have reportedly been looking for additional pitching in other Cease-related trade talks with the Mariners and Reds, it could also be that the White Sox wanted a better pitcher included than Hall, or perhaps a pitcher as the fourth element if the Orioles had offered a position player.

These talks are again indicative of the very large price tag that the White Sox are demanding for Cease, which isn’t really surprising given how he is their biggest trade asset apart from Luis Robert.  It also understandable why the Orioles ultimately pivoted from these talks with Chicago to closing the deal on Burnes, as Burnes provides a higher ceiling as a more consistent ace-level pitcher even if he comes with one less year of control than Cease.

Obviously some of this discussion is just conjecture since we don’t know exactly what the Orioles put on the table for Cease, yet it also speaks to the interesting juggling act Elias has been facing in determining how to put the best “final touch” on the AL East-winning roster.  It can be assumed that pretty much every rival team has been asking about the top tier of names in Baltimore’s farm system in any trade talks, so Elias technically has the minor league depth to complete just about any deal, he naturally isn’t going to deplete that depth for just any pitcher.

Speaking of Kjerstad and Cowser, it wouldn’t be surprising to see either youngster play big roles in whatever success awaits the 2024 Orioles, though they’re part of a crowded outfield, first base, and DH picture that also includes Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan O’Hearn, and even more up-and-coming prospects in Coby Mayo and Kyle Stowers, among others.  Even with all these options on hand, Nightengale reports that the O’s still had interest in bringing back Aaron Hicks before the veteran outfielder signed with the Angels earlier this week.

After an injury-plagued stint with the Yankees, Hicks revived his career after joining the Orioles last season, hitting .275/.381/.425 over 236 PA and acting as a veteran leader within the young clubhouse.  Since the Yankees are still covering Hicks’ previous contract through the 2025 season, the outfielder was available on only a minimum MLB salary to any team this winter, giving him presumably a pretty wide range of suitors.

Though the Orioles are in a better position to contend than the Angels in 2024, it could be that Hicks simply felt he wouldn’t get as much playing time in Baltimore than he would in Los Angeles.  Though the Angels have a fair amount of outfield options themselves, Mike Trout’s injury history and the unproven big league track records of Mickey Moniak and Jo Adell leave more room for Hicks to become a lineup regular.

Orioles Acquire Corbin Burnes

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The Orioles got their ace. Baltimore announced the acquisition of 2021 NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes from the Brewers for rookie infielder Joey Ortiz, left-hander DL Hall, and their 2024 Competitive Balance Round A draft pick (#34 overall). Milwaukee designated lefty Ethan Small for assignment to clear the necessary 40-man roster spot.

There’d been speculation as far back as last offseason about the possibility of the Orioles acquiring a top-end starting pitcher. Baltimore has a loaded farm system that has graduated plenty of young talent over the past two seasons. Most of that has been concentrated on the position player side, making it a natural fit for them to leverage that farm depth to bring in an impact starter.

Burnes certainly qualifies. He established himself in the Milwaukee rotation during the shortened 2020 campaign. The righty has finished in the top 10 in NL Cy Young balloting in each of the past four seasons. He won the award in ’21 thanks to an MLB-best 2.43 ERA across 167 innings. Burnes followed up with a National League-leading 243 strikeouts and a 2.94 ERA across 202 frames the following season.

Last season was perhaps his least impressive showing since his 2020 breakout. Yet it could only be classified as a “down” year by Burnes’ immense standards. He remained a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, turning in a 3.39 ERA while logging 193 2/3 innings across 32 starts. His 25.5% strikeout rate was still a few points better than league average, as was his 12.2% swinging strike percentage. He finished eighth in Cy Young voting.

It wasn’t the same level of dominance that Burnes had shown in the preceding three years. He had fanned more than 30% of opponents with a swinging strike rate above 14% in every year from 2020-22. Burnes looked more like his old self down the stretch, however. He carried a 3.94 ERA and a 23.1% strikeout rate into the All-Star Break. In the second half, he fanned 28.6% of opponents while allowing only 2.71 earned runs per nine. Opposing hitters had a pitiful .187/.259/.294 slash line after the Midsummer Classic.

Going back to the start of 2020, Burnes has a 2.86 ERA over 105 appearances. He has punched out nearly 31% of batters faced against a modest 7.1% walk rate. Batters are hitting .197/.262/.308 in nearly 2500 trips to the plate. Neither left-handed nor righty-hitting opponents have had success against him. Outside of a two-week injured list stint early in 2021 because of a finger contusion, he hasn’t missed any time within the last three years.

Burnes is a true ace, one of the 5-10 best pitchers in baseball. He jumps to the top of a rotation that has suddenly gone from Baltimore’s biggest question to one of the higher-upside staffs in the league. Kyle Bradish slots in as the #2 arm after a breakout 2023 campaign in which he worked to a 2.83 ERA over 30 starts. Grayson Rodriguez looks to have turned a corner in the second half. The former top pitching prospect worked to a 4.35 ERA in his rookie season. After being tagged for a 7.35 ERA in his first 10 MLB outings, he turned in a 2.58 mark in his final 13 regular season starts (although he was hit hard in his lone playoff appearance).

That’s a potentially elite top three. Former All-Star John Means returned from Tommy John surgery late last season. Some residual elbow soreness kept him off the club’s playoff roster, but he’s expected to be fully healthy for 2024. If that’s true, he slots in well as the #4 starter. Dean Kremer would likely occupy the final spot, with Tyler Wells and Cole Irvin pushed into season-opening relief roles.

While the O’s could perhaps benefit from another depth addition or two, they’ve landed the true #1 that should represent the finishing move on an already great roster. Baltimore’s loaded young lineup and excellent relief corps led the team to 101 wins and an AL East title a year ago. The O’s lost star closer Félix Bautista to Tommy John surgery at year’s end but moved early in the offseason to sign Craig Kimbrel as a replacement.

It’s likely a one-year acquisition. Burnes will hit free agency next offseason shortly after his 30th birthday. With anything like his typical levels of production, he’ll be in line for a massive contract that could top eight years and $200-250MM. Burnes has been clear about his desire to test his value on the open market. Asked in December about the possibility of signing an extension if he were traded this winter, he said such an offer “would have to be something that would just absolutely blow you away to get you away from testing the free agent market.”

As recently as last week, O’s fans wouldn’t have been able to dream about the organization putting that kind of proposal on the table. Baltimore has dramatically scaled back spending since John Angelos assumed control of the franchise. On Tuesday, the Angelos family agreed to sell the organization to private equity mogul David Rubenstein. How that’ll impact the long-term payroll outlook remains to be seen, but Baltimore fans can be more optimistic about the chances of making significant investments once Rubenstein takes control of the franchise after the sale is approved by MLB in the coming months.

In any case, the primary focus is installing Burnes atop next year’s rotation. The three-time All-Star had settled on a $15.637MM contract with Milwaukee to avoid arbitration in his final season of eligibility. That makes him the highest-paid player on Baltimore’s roster and pushes their 2024 payroll projection to roughly $96MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. It’ll be their highest season-opening payroll since 2018 and is a marked increase over last year’s approximate $60MM mark.

Still, they’re in the bottom third of the league in projected spending. They’re making a push to defend a title in what is annually one of the sport’s most competitive divisions. Their only commitments beyond this season are a $1MM salary for Bautista and a handful of inexpensive option buyouts. Even if this takes them near their spending limit this offseason, they should have flexibility to further bolster the roster near the deadline.

That Baltimore did so without surrendering any of their true top-tier prospects reflects both the strength of their talent pipeline and the value ceiling for any player who is only one year from free agency. Ortiz and Hall are each highly-regarded young players but placed in the back half of Baltimore’s top 10 prospects at Baseball America.

Ortiz, 25, was a fourth-round pick in 2019 out of New Mexico State. He’d drawn praise for his defensive acumen dating back to his time in college. The right-handed hitter has been more productive at the plate than many amateur scouts anticipated. He owns a .286/.357/.449 slash in his minor league career. Ortiz posted even better numbers between the top two levels of the minors a year ago.

In 389 plate appearances in Norfolk, he hit .321/.378/.507 with nine homers and 30 doubles. Ortiz spent most of his time at shortstop while logging some action at both second and third base. Baltimore promoted him for the first time at the end of April. He nevertheless spent most of the season on optional assignment, appearing in only 15 big league contests. With Jackson Holliday and Gunnar Henderson as the projected left side infield for the foreseeable future, Ortiz would have had a hard time finding much playing time.

Baseball America’s scouting report rates Ortiz as a potential 70-grade (plus-plus) defensive shortstop. Assuming he’s not traded in the next six weeks, Willy Adames will open the season at shortstop. Milwaukee is likely to lose Adames to free agency next winter at the latest, though, leaving a clear path for Ortiz to emerge as the long-term answer. In the short term, he should battle Andruw Monasterio and Owen Miller for playing time at third base. If Monasterio or Miller warrant extended run at the hot corner, Ortiz is an alternative to Brice Turang at second. Turang is a gifted defender but struggled at the plate during his rookie year.

Hall, also 25, was a first-round pick out of a Georgia high school seven years ago. The 6’2″ southpaw has had the same general profile for his entire professional career: huge stuff with worrying control issues. Hall made his MLB debut in 2022 and has logged 33 big league innings over the past two seasons. He owns a 4.36 ERA with a 29% strikeout rate while working almost exclusively in relief.

His 7.6% walk percentage at the MLB level isn’t out of the ordinary. Hall has been a lot less consistent at throwing strikes in the minors, however. He handed out free passes to over 13% of batters faced in 49 innings at Norfolk a year ago, which is right in line with the 13.4% walk rate he owns in his minor league career.

That he also punched out nearly a third of batters faced in Triple-A hints at the excellent arsenal he owns. His fastball averaged nearly 96 MPH in his big league relief work. Hall also worked with a mid-80s slider and changeup while occasionally mixing in a curveball. BA’s scouting report notes that all four of those offerings could be plus or better.

It’s top-of-the-rotation caliber stuff, but Hall’s strike-throwing has led many evaluators to project him as a high-octane reliever. Milwaukee could use him in either capacity. The Brewers have ample opportunity in the rotation behind new staff ace Freddy Peralta. Veteran lefty Wade Miley is a steadying presence. After that, Milwaukee could lean on any of Colin Rea, injury returnees Joe Ross and Aaron Ashby and prospects like Hall and Robert Gasser in the rotation.

Neither Ortiz nor Hall has reached one year of major league service. They’re each under club control for at least six seasons and three years away from arbitration. They’re the kind of high minors players that Milwaukee frequently targets. Their organizational philosophy, much like that of other small-market franchises like the Rays and Guardians, is to eschew traditional competitive windows while building the farm system by trading veterans as they get close to free agency.

GM Matt Arnold stated that trading Burnes isn’t the signal of a traditional rebuild (relayed by Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). Last week’s signing of Rhys Hoskins to a $34MM free agent deal that allows him to opt out after next season makes clear they’re not giving up on contending in a wide open NL Central. They’ve shown time and again they’ve nevertheless open to offers on most players to try to remain consistently competitive. After trading Josh Hader at the 2022 deadline led to discontent within the clubhouse, the front office suggested they were less inclined to make those kinds of trades during the season.

Between the shoulder injury that led Milwaukee to non-tender Brandon Woodruff and tonight’s move, the Brewers have subtracted their top two starters this offseason. Milwaukee’s payroll projection drops to around $102MM, per Roster Resource. That’s well below last year’s $118MM season-opening mark. That leaves open the possibility of Milwaukee backfilling the rotation in free agency. Arnold was noncommittal as to whether the team planned to reinvest their payroll savings (via Hogg).

Milwaukee should add a third notable young player with the draft choice they acquired. Milwaukee would have received a compensatory pick had they let Burnes depart in free agency — he’ll surely reject a qualifying offer — but that wouldn’t have been until 2025. Baltimore can make Burnes a QO next offseason (and will, unless he suffers a serious injury). As a revenue sharing recipient, they’d land a compensation pick after the first round in 2025 if he signs elsewhere for at least $50MM.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Orioles were nearing a deal to acquire Burnes. Jon Heyman of the New York Post indicated the deal was agreed upon. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Ortiz and Hall were among the pieces headed to the Brewers. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the inclusion of the draft pick to complete the deal.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Red Sox Pitching, Trade Discussions

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Craig Breslow’s first offseason as Boston’s chief baseball officer has been marked by one notable free agent signing (Lucas Giolito’s two-year, $38.5MM deal) and several significant trades, with the likes of Tyler O’Neill and Vaughn Grissom joining the roster and Chris Sale, Alex Verdugo, and Luis Urias all leaving Fenway Park.  With more work on the pitching staff still to be done, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes that the Red Sox could again turn to the trade market, though with some limitations on the scope of their talks.

Rather than pursue pitchers who are just under team control through the 2024 season (i.e. Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber), Speier reports that the Sox are trying to acquire pitchers who have multiple years of control.  Naturally, such hurler come at a high asking price in trade talks, yet Boston is unsurprisingly wary about parting ways with its top prospects.  It doesn’t appear that any of Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, or Kyle Teel are available in talks, though it isn’t clear if the Red Sox might be more open to dealing from the next tier down on their list of minor leaguers.  Speier cites outfielder Miguel Bleis and second baseman Nick Yorke as among the several other Sox prospects who have drawn trade interest from rival clubs.

Between these relatively lesser prospects and other potential younger trade chips on the big league roster, the Red Sox might be able to swing some kind of deal for a more proven upgrade, whether in the rotation or perhaps even somewhere else on the roster.  However, as Speier writes, “there’s little sense they’ll push in the chips to land an established top-of-the-rotation starter either via trade or free agency.  Further additions appear more likely in the middle or back of the rotation to improve depth and reliability.”

This isn’t markedly different from past reports about Boston’s offseason plans, though the Sox were at least somewhat engaged on enough big-ticket names (Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell) to create the impression that the team was willing to splurge in the right circumstance.  Even with Montgomery and Snell still unsigned, it doesn’t look like the Red Sox will emerge as a real suitor unless either starter drops his asking price — though in that situation, one would imagine a lot of other clubs might also step up their pursuits.

One of the lingering questions of Boston’s offseason is how much Breslow has been authorized to spend, considering that some level of payroll limitation appears to be in place.  The Sox currently have approximately $177.5MM on the books for 2024 according to Roster Resource, so they’re pretty close to matching their $181.2MM Opening Day payroll from 2023.  That figure from last year ranked 12th in all of baseball, the first time in the 21st century that the Red Sox weren’t at least in the top ten in Opening Day spending.

This relative hesitation towards larger spending has manifested itself not only in the lack of movement on Montgomery or Snell, but also in Boston’s pursuit of Shota Imanaga.  Granted, it appears as though the league as a whole perhaps had some concerns over Imanaga’s viability as a Major League starter, given that his four-year, $53MM deal with the Cubs fell below industry expectations.  However, Imanaga’s contract could become a five-year, $80MM pact if the Cubs exercise a club option for 2028, and they’ll have to make that decision following the 2025 season and 2026 seasons or else Imanaga can trigger an opt-out clause.

The Red Sox also had interest in a more creative deal for Imanaga, but Speier reports that their offer included only two guaranteed years “with the potential for two additional vesting years.”  Imanaga will earn $23MM ($22MM in salary and a $1MM signing bonus) over his first two seasons in with the Cubs and Speier writes that Boston’s offer paid him more than that $23MM amount through 2025, though it isn’t surprising to see why Imanaga decided to take the Cubs’ offer.

There’s still plenty of offseason left for Breslow to make more moves, and an argument could be that made that the Red Sox roster is already looking better than it did in 2023.  That said, simply being better doesn’t necessarily translate to a team capable of contending for a championship or even a playoff berth, and patience is running thin amongst the fanbase after consecutive last-place finishes in the AL East.

Brewers, Corbin Burnes Avoid Arbitration

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The Brewers and right-hander Corbin Burnes have agreed to a one-year deal worth $15.637MM for the 2024 campaign to avoid arbitration, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

Burnes, 29, put together a strong season in 2023 with a 3.39 ERA in 193 2/3 trips to the plate. That performance earned him a third consecutive All Star appearance and and eighth-place finish in NL Cy Young award voting, his fourth consecutive season placing in the top eight or higher. That being said, the 2023 campaign did see Burnes take some small steps back as well. Though he punched out 200 batters for the third straight season, the right-hander’s 25.5% strikeout rate was the lowest of his career since a 38-inning cup of coffee out of the Milwaukee bullpen back in 2018. Meanwhile, Burnes allowed free passes at an 8.4% clip after entering the season with a career 6.7% walk rate.

Despite those concerns, Burnes was nonetheless among the best pitchers in the league last season, with a 3.4 fWAR that ranked 19th among qualified starters last season alongside the likes of Luis Castillo and Kodai Senga. That earned Burnes a salary slightly above the $15.1MM projection put forth by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz back in October. It’s perhaps particularly noteworthy for Burnes and the Brewers to agree to a deal rather than head to an arbitration hearing given the right-hander’s comments last February on the heels of his loss in a hearing against the club regarding his 2023 salary, where the sides were apart by just $750K. Given the contentious hearing the sides went through last year, it’s hardly surprising that both sides would prefer to avoid a similar situation this winter, Burnes’s final before hitting free agency next offseason.

Burnes has been the subject of plenty of trade rumors this offseason. While that’s hardly a surprise given his contractual status and Milwaukee’s decision to non-tender co-ace Brandon Woodruff earlier this winter, comments from GM Matt Arnold have indicated that the Brewers still plan on Burnes taking the ball for the club on Opening Day. That, of course, could change as the offseason continues to progress. It’s worth noting that, whether or not Burnes ends up traded before the season begins, he’s publicly made clear that he’s unlikely to sign an extension this winter and looks forward to hitting the open market come November. In the meantime, however, the right-hander projects at the front of a Brewers rotation that also features Freddy Peralta, Wade Miley, Colin Rea, and Joe Ross.

Corbin Burnes Downplays Possibility Of Signing Extension

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Heading into the offseason, the trade market contained a handful of veteran starters who were a year from free agency and widely expected to be available — Tyler Glasnow, Shane Bieber and perhaps Corbin Burnes chief among them. Glasnow has already changed hands, going from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles and signing an extension — which the two parties agreed upon as a contingency of the trade becoming official. Bieber is still with the Guardians. But as earlier this month, like Glasnow, he was reportedly open to discussing a long-term deal following a trade.

Fans of rival clubs may be eyeing Burnes and envisioning a similar outcome, but the right-hander himself effectively quashed any such hopes in an appearance with Erik Kratz, A.J. Pierzynski and Hannah Keyser on Foul Territory (video link). Asked by Kratz about the possibility of taking the same path Glasnow did, Burnes replied:

“Being in my shoes, being a year away from [free agency], I think if a trade-and-extension type of deal came up — obviously, every guy that gets this close to free agency wants to test the market to see what your true dollar amount is, see what teams really are in on you. It would have to be something that would just absolutely blow you away to get you away from testing the free agent market and being able to choose where you want to go. I think that’s one thing every player in their career wants to get to. Once you get that six years of service time — which for a lot of guys takes seven, eight, sometimes nine years to get to — you get that chance to test the market and see what your top dollar is.”

Burnes, of course, is speaking in generalities. The majority of players ostensibly share his sentiment, but Glasnow has now twice signed an extension in lieu of reaching free agency, and we’ve seen plenty of players over the years hammer out a long-term deal when they’re less than a calendar year from reaching the market. It’s rarer, although hardly unprecedented, with an expected top-of-the-market free agent. Rafael Devers, Stephen Strasburg and Xander Bogaerts are just a few examples of prominent, All-Star-caliber talents signing an extension after reaching five years of big league service.

Still, Burnes’ comments seemingly align with most star-level players and shouldn’t be taken as a surprise. That’s particularly true given that he’s a client of the Boras Corporation, whose players tend to gravitate toward free agency. (Although, again, that’s a generality and perhaps even an overstated one; Strasburg, Bogaerts, Jose Altuve, Carlos Gonzalez and others have all signed extensions under Boras.)

In his latest notes column at The Athletic, Ken Rosenthal reports that Brewers owner Mark Attanasio is still uncertain about how to proceed with Burnes and is wary of creating a similar backlash to the 2022 trade deadline deal that sent Josh Hader to San Diego. That doesn’t preclude a trade from ultimately coming together, but it’s a starkly different tone from the circumstances surrounding Glasnow, where a trade felt like an inevitability as the offseason wore on.

If the Brewers opt to hold onto Burnes, they can head into the 2024 season with him, Freddy Peralta, the recently re-signed Wade Miley and Adrian Houser in the top four spots of the rotation. Colin Rea, free-agent signee Joe Ross and prospect Robert Gasser (acquired in the aforementioned Hader deal) are among the other in-house candidates for rotation spots, and further additions via free agency or trade can’t be squarely ruled out. The lineup would need clear augmentation, but Milwaukee’s pitching would again have the makings of a solid group with Burnes and Peralta leading the rotation and Devin Williams anchoring the bullpen.

Should Milwaukee hold onto Burnes and fail to contend even in a thin National League Central division, Burnes would obviously hold immense appeal at the trade deadline. And, if they ride out the year with Burnes atop a contending rotation, they could at least extend a qualifying offer and recoup a draft pick after the first round in 2025. It’s a relatively small consolation prize for a former Cy Young winner, but that compensation still factors in when listening to any trade offers that come their way.

Holding onto any impending free agent/trade candidate comes with the risk of said player incurring an injury that tanks their value. Burnes, however, is so talented that anything short of a major surgery that would jeopardize his 2025 availability makes a QO a no-brainer. Over the past four seasons, he’s pitched 622 1/3 innings with aa 2.86 ERA, 30.9% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate. Burnes has made three consecutive All-Star teams and won the National League Cy Young Award in 2021. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn $15.1MM in 2024 before he becomes a free agent next winter.

Latest On Corbin Burnes

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Brewers ace Corbin Burnes, one year away from reaching the open market, is among the most compelling names on the trade market for starting pitchers this offseason. The Brewers haven’t actively shopped Burnes, but that hasn’t stopped other clubs from expressing interest. Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that executives with other clubs are of the impression that there’s a legitimate chance of Burnes ultimately being moved. Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, however, frames things differently, noting that Milwaukee GM Matt Arnold said this week that he still expects Burnes to be his Opening Day starter.

If the Brewers are shopping Burnes at all, Arnold isn’t tipping his hand on the matter either in public comments or in comments made to Burnes’ agent, Scott Boras. As McCalvy writes, Boras said at this week’s Winter Meetings that “everything I’ve heard from Milwaukee is that they’re putting together a competitive team to win the division in ’24.” Boras added that the Brewers haven’t approached him about a long-term extension, but it seems they’ve also not given any signal that Burnes could be on the move.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic once again brought up the possibility of a Burnes/Willy Adames package heading to the Dodgers, noting that Wisconsin native Gavin Lux could be of interest to a Brewers club with some infield uncertainty (which would only be exacerbated by a trade of Adames, of course). There’s no clear indication that a trade of that nature is currently being discussed, to be clear. Similarly, Rosenthal’s colleague Brendan Kuty speculated this morning that if the Yankees ultimately miss out on NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, they could turn their focus to Burnes. Again, that’s not a firm report that talks have taken place, but Burnes is a logical option both for clubs that miss out on top free agents (e.g. Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery) and for teams that have no intention of spending at the levels necessary to sign those free agents in the first place.

[Related: Looking for a Match in a Corbin Burnes trade]

Arnold openly acknowledged this week that demand for Burnes has been high (link via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). The GM unsurprisingly didn’t tip his hand one way or another, but speaking in more general terms did note that the Winter Meetings are often a place where groundwork on larger trades can be done. Arnold explained to Rosiak and others that much of the framework of last year’s three-team Sean Murphy/William Contreras/Esteury Ruiz trade was put into place at the Winter Meetings, but a trade didn’t come together for several more days while the Brewers, A’s and Braves worked out the complementary pieces in the swap.

Burnes, 29, pitched to a 3.39 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate in 193 2/3 innings atop Milwaukee’s rotation this past season. Over the past four years, he’s compiled a 2.86 earned run average with a 30.9% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 46.4% ground-ball rate in 622 1/3 innings. He’s been highly durable, pitching in 105 games during that time and only hitting the injured list for an oblique strain that sidelined him less than a month. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $15.1MM salary for Burnes in his final season of arbitration.

Angels “Aggressively Scanning” Trade Market For Starting Pitching

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While the Angels are still in the mix to retain franchise face Shohei Ohtani, that hasn’t stopped the club from looking to improve other areas of its roster in the meantime. Fabian Ardaya and Sam Blum The Athletic reported this evening that the Angels have aggressive in the search for starting pitching upgrades on the trade market, engaging with rival clubs on multiple different fronts. That includes top-of-the-market rental arms such as Shane Bieber of the Guardians, Corbin Burnes of the Brewers, and Tyler Glasnow of the Rays, each of whom has frequently seen their name appear in the rumor mill this offseason.

Of the three, Glasnow has been the most frequently discussed as a trade candidate this offseason thanks to the Rays’ payroll situation and his hefty $25MM salary for the 2024 campaign. Such an addition would almost certainly push the Angels to the point of paying into the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history in the event they were able to reunite with Ohtani, who could command an annual salary in the range of $50MM or more. Bieber and Burnes, by contrast, would be somewhat more palatable additions from a financial perspective. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects the pair of right-handers to earn $12.2MM and $15.1MM in their respective final trips through arbitration this winter.

On the other end of the spectrum, Ardaya and Blum also report the Angels engaged with the Blue Jays regarding right-hander Alek Manoah, though those discussions did not ultimately gain traction. Even so, the club’s interest in adding Manoah to their rotation mix is noteworthy nonetheless. As opposed to the aforementioned trio of rental aces, Manoah won’t turn 26 until next month and would come with four seasons of team control. On the other hand, the right-hander’s production fell off a cliff in 2023 on the heels of his Cy Young finalist campaign in 2022. Manoah entered 2023 with a career ERA of 2.60 and FIP of 3.51, but saw those strong numbers collapse across 19 disastrous starts for Toronto this past season during which he posted a 5.87 ERA and 6.01 FIP in 87 1/3 innings of work. Manoah saw his strikeout rate fall to just 19% in 2023 as his walk rate more than doubled, making him more of a long-term change of scenery candidate than a surefire, short-term improvement to the rotation mix in Anaheim.

Despite the wide variety of arms the Angels are reportedly checking in on, Ardaya and Blum suggest that the club’s willingness to engage on the markets of these rotation arms, particularly those with only one year of team control remaining, could tip the club’s hand regarding their plans for the offseason regardless of whether they manage to secure Ohtani. If the club were to surrender young talent in a deal for an arm such as Burnes, Glasnow, or Bieber, that would be perhaps the clearest indicator yet that GM Perry Minasian and his front office have no intention of initiating a rebuild this offseason, regardless of Ohtani’s ultimately destination.

With or without Ohtani, the club is certainly justified in looking for improvements to its starting rotation for next season if they intend to compete in 2024. Of the five players to make at least 20 starts for the Angels in 2023, only Ohtani posted an ERA below 4.00, leaving the collective rotation staff with a 4.47 ERA and 4.52 FIP, both of which were below the league average last season. That would leave the club in line to benefit from an impact addition to the rotation even if the club could rely on Ohtani to start every sixth day next season. That need is even further exacerbated by the fact that Ohtani won’t take the mound at all in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery back in September. Even if the club manages to retain their superstar slugger, it seems unlikely they’d be able to substantially improve on their 73-89 finish last season without giving their starting five a significant facelift.

The report doesn’t name specific pieces discussed as part of a potential return package of any of the players the Angels are pursuing. That being said, Ardaya and Blum note that rival clubs have been “intrigued” by the Angels’ group of fast-rising youngsters like Logan O’Hoppe, Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel. It would be something of a surprise to see the club move any of those potentially core young pieces, particularly in a deal for a rental player. That being said, the Angels have been aggressive in trades for rental pieces in the past, including as recently as this past summer when they shipped out multiple top prospects to land Lucas Giolito from the White Sox.

Padres Interested In Corbin Burnes

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Much of the hot stove buzz around the Padres this offseason has focused on the team’s reported desire to cut payroll, and the possibility that a Juan Soto trade could be an ideal way for the Friars to both save money and reload with some new talent.  However, the Padres firmly still intend to get back to winning baseball in 2024, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the team has interest in trading for Brewers ace Corbin Burnes.

Nick Martinez has already left to join the Reds, and there is little expectation that either Seth Lugo or Michael Wacha will be re-signed, given the Padres’ apparent budget concerns.  That leaves San Diego in severe need of starting pitching depth behind Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, and adding a former Cy Young Award winner like Burnes would certainly provide a huge boost.  While more work would need to be done on the back end of the rotation, the Padres would suddenly have a top three comparable to any other starting trio in baseball.

Acee’s piece details some of the financial factors going into the Padres’ winter plans, and notes that “the Padres have inquired about most of the top starters” available in free agency, even if signing one of the bigger-name arms doesn’t seem likely.  Acquiring pitchers on more moderate free agent deals or via the trade market seems much more realistic, though landing Burnes would naturally come at a heavy price.

Firstly, it isn’t yet clear that the Brewers are even going to move Burnes, as much as their own payroll situation might make a deal seem sensible.  Burnes is projected to earn $15.1MM in 2024, which is his final year of arbitration eligibility before testing free agency.  Given Milwaukee’s history of spending, it doesn’t seem likely that the Crew will fork over the pricey extension or free agent deal it would take to keep Burnes in Wisconsin, so there is some merit in moving him this winter.

In essence, it’s the same decision the Padres face with Soto, who is projected for a whopping $33MM arbitration salary and will also be a free agent come next winter.  Soto is widely expected to seek a contract upwards of $500MM since he’ll be only entering his age-26 season in 2025, and re-signing in San Diego suddenly seems less likely if the Padres are going to be reining in their spending.

Just to get the obvious hypothetical out of the way, a trade of Soto for Burnes in some fashion might not be too feasible for either San Diego or Milwaukee.  It obviously wouldn’t be a straight one-for-one swap, yet it’s very fun to imagine a blockbuster swap that would see the Padres get the pitching upgrade they need while the offense-needy Brewers land an elite bat.  Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has plenty of creative trades on his resume, and last winter’s three-team swap with the Braves and Athletics shows that Brewers president of baseball operations Matt Arnold is also no stranger to bold moves.

This all being said, the trade package San Diego reportedly wanted from the Yankees is perhaps more instructive as to what the Padres are looking to achieve with a Soto deal.  If the Friars are looking for a mix of win-now talent, prospects, and salary relief (perhaps involving unloading the contract of a player like Trent Grisham), then very few teams can meet that asking price.  Obviously that reported Yankees offer might represent a high starting ask from Preller and his demands might lessen as the offseason develops, yet a smaller-market team like the Brewers that particularly values prospects as the backbone of their organization isn’t going to make a big splurge for one year of control over Soto.  If anything, Arnold might be looking for a similar return for Burnes — a trade package that helps set the Brewers up for years to come, not a particular win-now push for 2024.

If a direct trade between the two teams might not work, it is possible another three-team deal could be explored, and Acee suggests that a three-team trade might be the only way for the Padres to fully achieve most of their goals in dealing Soto.  In regards to Milwaukee specifically, perhaps the Padres could move Soto to a third club, then funnel some of the young talent they’d receive from that mystery team towards the Brewers to then add Burnes for San Diego’s rotation.  The permutations here are pretty much endless, and there’s a reason why three-team trades are relatively rare, particularly three-team trades involving some of the game’s biggest superstars.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored Burnes’ trade market, and the Padres weren’t one of the 12 teams Steve identified as the best possible fits for the right-hander.  This doesn’t mean the Padres (or even one of the other clubs not cited) absolutely couldn’t emerge as something of a surprise suitor, and the team’s interest altogether indicates that Preller isn’t planning a fire sale of the roster.

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