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Cody Bellinger

Cody Bellinger Begins Minor League Rehab, Plays First Base

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Cody Bellinger made three plate appearances for Triple-A Iowa last night, marking the first game of his minor league rehab assignment.  The former NL MVP has been out of action since May 16 due to a left knee contusion, but appears to be making good progress towards returning after close to a month on the 10-day injured list.

Bellinger played first base for Iowa, which Cubs manager David Ross said (to the Chicago Sun-Times’ Maddie Lee and other reporters) was partially due to Bellinger still having some difficulty fully extending his knee during all-out sprinting.  Even when Bellinger returns to the Cubs lineup, Ross left the door open for the outfielder to see more time at first base, noting that “[Mike] Tauchman’s swinging the bat really well and held down center field pretty well.  So [we’re] just trying to find the best lineup whenever Belli gets back.”

First base isn’t at all an unfamiliar position for Bellinger, as he has 262 career appearances as a first baseman during his seven MLB seasons.  However, he made only four appearances at first base in 2021 and none at all in 2022.  Bellinger’s injuries and struggles late in his stint with the Dodgers obviously factored into this decreased usage, not to mention the fact that Freddie Freeman took over full-time first base duty in 2022.

But, using Bellinger at first base was also something of a waste of a strong outfield glove, as Bellinger won a Gold Glove and Fielding Bible Award for his right field work in 2019, and has been an above-average defender in center field.  This glovework and strong baserunning helped Bellinger continue to earn playing time in Los Angeles even amidst his two-year funk at the plate in 2021-22.

The Dodgers opted to non-tender Bellinger this past offseason, and the Cubs inked him to a one-year deal worth $17.5MM in guaranteed money.  That includes a $5MM buyout of a $25MM mutual option, but it would seem quite unlikely that both sides would choose to exercise their option, as Bellinger was prioritizing one-year contract offers in order to return to the open market next winter with a better platform season on his resume.

Chicago’s bet on a Bellinger rebound has to some extent paid off, as prior to the month-long IL stint, Bellinger hit .271/.337/.493 with seven homers in his first 163 PA in a Cubs uniform.  The sample size is still too small to draw an overall conclusion about a bounce-back, however, and Bellinger did have only a .512 OPS in the 49 PA prior to his IL placement, so some regression might have already been at play.

There hasn’t been any indication that Bellinger’s knee problem could prevent him from returning to the outfield altogether, so the first base usage might indeed be just the Cubs’ way of getting him onto the field a bit earlier and start ramping up for his eventual return to the Major League roster.  Tauchman has also been solid (.274/.403/.323 in 78 PA) for the Cubs since his minor league contract was selected on the same day as Bellinger’s IL placement.

In the bigger picture, the 29-37 Cubs aren’t too far out of the picture in the weak NL Central, but the team might again be looking at being sellers at the trade deadline.  A 32-year-old journeyman like Tauchman probably isn’t in the Cubs’ long-term plans, so Tauchman in center field might be a preview of what Chicago’s post-deadline outfield could look like if Bellinger is dealt elsewhere.

Assuming Bellinger returns healthy and keeps hitting, he’ll be a very interesting trade chip for the Cubs to offer at the deadline, and there’s bound to be plenty of interest given how many teams explored signing Bellinger last winter.  Bellinger as a center fielder naturally has a lot more value than Bellinger as a first baseman, yet if sprinting continues to be any kind of an issue, first base is at least a fall-back position that allows him to contribute in some capacity.

Cubs Designate Eric Hosmer For Assignment

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The Cubs announced a series of roster moves today, with Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic among those to relay them on Twitter. Infielder Nico Hoerner has been activated off the injured list, Edwin Ríos was recalled from Iowa and outfielder Mike Tauchman has had his contract selected. In corresponding moves, Cody Bellinger has been placed on the 10-day injured list retroactive to May 16 with a left knee contusion, Keegan Thompson has been optioned to Iowa and first baseman Eric Hosmer has been designated for assignment.

Hosmer, 33, signed an eight-year, $144MM deal with the Padres going into the 2018 but then saw his production tail off once the ink on that deal was dry. He had a career batting line of .284/.342/.439 prior to that deal but has hit just .263/.323/.406 since then. That latter line amounts to a wRC+ of 98, indicating he’s been a couple of ticks below league average. Since first baseman are generally expected to produce more on the offensive side of things, that’s been an obviously disappointing performance.

He was frequently the subject of trade rumors during him time in San Diego and eventually was flipped to the Red Sox at least year’s deadline with the Padres eating almost all of the remaining money on his deal, with Boston on the hook for just the league minimum. Boston was then encouraged enough by the developments of first base prospect Triston Casas that they released Hosmer in the offseason.

The Cubs then agreed to bring Hosmer aboard, which was a move that had no financial risk since the Padres were still responsible for most of the $39MM remaining on the final three years of his contract. It was seen by many that Hosmer would be a sort of placeholder, hopefully playing at a serviceable level until some younger player such as Matt Mervis eventually forced their way into the major league plans. Mervis was called up a couple of weeks ago and is hitting just .220/.256/.317 so far but Hosmer isn’t doing much better, currently slashing .234/.280/.330 for a wRC+ of 67. It seems the Cubs will use Hosmer’s at-bats on other players and let him seek out his next opportunity.

Hosmer will inevitable be released in the coming days and return to the open market. He hasn’t been able to provide much value lately but he might still get interest based on his previous work and the fact that he’d be essentially free in terms of dollars. He also appears to be respected around the game for intangibles like his clubhouse presence and leadership, which could also appeal to certain clubs.

Turning to the other moves, Bellinger seemed to injure himself by colliding with the wall in Houston while making a catch on Monday. The club took a few days to see how his situation developed but has decided to let him rest for at least another week. He was non-tendered by the Dodgers after last season due to his struggles in both 2021 and 2022 but is in better form so far this year. After signing a one-year, $17.5MM deal with the Cubs this winter, he’s hitting .271/.337/.493 in addition to stealing nine bases and playing quality defense. Christopher Morel is in center field tonight and could perhaps stay there until Bellinger comes back.

Tauchman, 32, could also be in that mix, as he’s been playing all three outfield slots in Triple-A this year. He’s also walked in an incredible 20.4% of his plate appearances, leading to a .278/.427/.443 slash line and 129 wRC+. He has 257 games of major league experience under his belt, having played for the Rockies, Yankees and Giants from 2017 to 2021. His career batting line is currently .231/.326/.378 for a wRC+ of 90. He spent 2022 with the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization, hitting .289/.366/.430 in 144 games there.

Can These Five Players Sustain Their Strong Starts?

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We’re about a month into the 2023 baseball season, and as is always the case there are teams that are over-performing (that’s you, Pittsburgh) and under-performing. It’s not just on the team side either, certain players are off to better than expected starts, and while a month of play isn’t enough to make a definitive judgement on one’s season, it’s certainly enough of a sample size to have a conversation about whether a player has turned a corner.

Let’s take a look at five players who are have performed better than expectations over the first month, and try and predict whether they’ll be able to sustain their strong start. (All stats are up to date entering Saturday’s matches)

Joey Gallo: .265/.368/.796 with seven home runs 

The poster boy of the three true outcome hitter, Gallo has frustrated fans from Texas to New York to LA in recent years with his tantalizing power but sky high strikeouts and sub-optimal batting averages. Last year was one of Gallo’s worst, as he posted just a .160/.280/.357 line with a strikeout rate a touch shy of 40% between the Yankees and Dodgers and hit free agency without much fanfare. The Twins brought him in on a one-year, $11MM deal and it already seems to be paying off. Gallo’s shaved almost ten percentage points off his strikeout rate and is still walking at his usual solid clip.

Gallo appears to have a really good feel for the zone at the moment, swinging at more pitches in the zone and taking fewer called strikes. I spoke with Betsy Helfand, Twins beat reporter for the St. Paul Pioneer Press, on the MLBTR Podcast this week and she detailed some changes Gallo had made in his stance over the off-season. Perhaps also he’s benefitting from the shift changes. Gallo is pulling the ball more than in recent years, perhaps freed up to play more of his natural style with teams unable to shift quite so aggressively against him.

In any case, there’s a lot to like about Gallo’s start to the season in Minnesota. It’s probably unlikely he continues to hit a home run every seven at bats, but there’s every chance the Twins have themselves a much better version of Gallo than we’ve seen recently.

Yusei Kikuchi: Five starts, 27 IP, 3.00 ERA, 9.3 SO/9, 2.0 BB/9

Kikuchi came into the season clinging onto the final rotation spot in Toronto, but he’s been a really solid arm for them over the first month. Last season Kikuchi posted a 5.25 ERA in 20 starts for the Blue Jays and wound up out of the rotation by the end of the season. A big reason for his turnaround this year is a significant drop in his walk rate. Last season, Kikuchi was handing out free passes 12.8% of the time. This season? Just 5.7%. He’s also tweaked his pitch mix a bit, leaning less often on his fastball and bumping up the usage of his slider and splitter.

Yet a peak under the hood of Kikuchi’s performance does raise some red flags. He is still giving up far too many home runs, conceding about two every nine innings, much the same as his rate last year. He’s also carrying a sky high 97.2% left on base percentage, which is bound to drop some.

All in all, I’m skeptical Kikuchi holds on to the sort of numbers he’s putting up over his first five starts and expect a decent amount of regression. Maybe that still results in an improvement on last year and provides the Jays with enough to feel comfortable running him out every fifth day, but I still think he ends up with an ERA somewhere in the fours rather than the threes.

Cody Bellinger: .298/.475/.560 with five home runs 

After winning the NL MVP in 2019 with the Dodgers, Bellinger has descended into a below average hitter since, putting up a wRC+ of just 78 between 2020-22. That led the Dodgers to non-tender him at the end of last season, and he latched on with the Cubs on a one-year, $17.5MM deal. It looked like an expensive gamble at the time for Chicago, but it appears to be paying off.

Bellinger has almost halved his strikeout rate from a year prior, bumped up his walk rate but still isn’t hitting the ball nearly as hard as he was during his MVP season. In fact his HardHit% is at 31 this year, and was as high as 45.6 in 2019 and 38.1 last year. The huge drop in strikeouts really is the most impressive aspect though, as that’s where Bellinger had come undone in recent years. In 2019 his K rate was just 16.9%, but it rocketed up into the 27% range over the past few seasons, so to bring it back down to an elite rate is a firm indication of some meaningful change in Bellinger’s performance.

So with all that considered perhaps he’s sort of back? Mostly back? Or maybe on the way to being back? Either way, it’s still a hugely productive player for the Cubs and the signs are there that even if he’s not peak-Bellinger he’s still very much turned a corner.

Johan Oviedo: Five starts, 29 2/3 IP, 3.03 ERA, 8.8 SO/9, 3.3 BB/9

Little was made of the return the Pirates received for Jose Quintana when they dealt him to the Cardinals at the deadline last summer. Yet in Oviedo, with a few changes, they may have unearthed a really solid mid-rotation arm. Oviedo had been a ho-hum arm in the Cardinals system getting mixed results and it didn’t appear as though his departure would really change much in St Louis.

Yet since coming over the Pirates, Oviedo has blossomed, and I’ll borrow from my colleague Steve Adams’ analysis in a broader Front Office piece on Pittsburgh’s impressive start to the season, which includes this on Oviedo:

Oviedo has upped his fastball velocity, doubled his curveball usage and morphed from a fringey swingman to what looks like a legitimate Major League starter. He’s not an ace, but the tangible changes here and immediate results are intriguing.

Oviedo’s fastball velocity may be up to 96.6 mph on average, but he’s throwing the pitch at a career-low 33.7% clip, instead heavily favoring his slider and curveball, both of which have a 34% whiff rate in 2023, per Statcast. Fewer fastballs and more breaking pitches have led to a stark increase in ground-ball rate – a well above-average 55.7% in 2023 – and a glut of weak contact. He’s yielded just an 85.6 mph average exit velocity and a paltry 31.1% hard-hit rate.

Steve’s piece is well worth a read, but the key here is that Oviedo and the Pirates coaching staff have made meaningful change to his pitching repertoire and are seeing results. With that in mind, it’s hard not buy this start from Oviedo. Perhaps there’s a bit of regression from the 3.03 ERA, but even if the Bucs have landed themselves a solid third or fourth starter who gives them a chance to win each time he takes the mound, it’s a huge win.

Jarred Kelenic: .325/.380/.663 with seven home runs

Is it finally happening? Kelenic has been one of the game’s top prospects for a number of years now but has failed to make an impact at the highest level. That may be changing. Kelenic has been one of the best hitters on a struggling Seattle team to start 2023, and could be blossoming into the sort of player the team dreamed on when they acquired him from the Mets.

Sure, Kelenic will see some regression from the .385 BABIP he holds right now, but the guy is hitting the ball and hitting it hard. He’s already barreled up ten balls and his HardHit% sits at 57.6%, a full 22 percentage points higher than last year and his exit velocity has shot up from the previous two campaigns.

As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic details, Kelenic spent the winter in Arizona revamping his swing with Tim Laker, a former Mariners hitting coach and the results are clear. A career .168/.251/338 hitter in the big leagues, Kelenic looks to have finally broken out in 2023. Even if his strikeout and walk rates are largely in line with his previous numbers the fact that he can do more – a lot more – with the contact that he is making is the difference.

Cubs Designate Luis Torrens For Assignment

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The Cubs have reinstated outfielder Cody Bellinger from the paternity list, per Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. Catcher Luis Torrens was designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Torrens, 26, has appeared in 13 games for the Cubs this season but tallied only 22 plate appearances. He’s 5-for-20 with a double, a walk and eight strikeouts in that time (.250/.318/.300).

Signed to a minor league deal back in January, Torrens has spent the past two-plus seasons with the Mariners after being sent from San Diego to Seattle alongside Ty France and Andres Munoz in the Austin Nola trade. He’s totaled 266 big league games and 799 plate appearances, batting .227/.289/.352 with 19 home runs, a 7.8% walk rate and a 26% strikeout rate. Torrens hasn’t made much hard contact in his limited plate appearances this year but showed a knack for it from 2020-22 when he averaged 91 mph off the bat and posted a hearty 45.7% hard-hit rate.

Defensively, Torrens has drawn below-average grades from Defensive Runs Saved and most pitch-framing metrics. He has a career 21.7% caught-stealing rate that’s below the league average, and he came up empty in his only attempt to throw a runner out with the Cubs. He did throw out nine of 28 attempted thieves (32.1%) as recently as last season.

The Cubs will have a week to either trade Torrens, attempt to pass him through outright waivers or release him. He was outrighted by the Mariners last August, and that prior outright assignment gives him the ability to reject a minor league assignment in favor of free agency if the Cubs place him on waivers and he goes unclaimed.

The Cubs-Dodgers Outfield Swap Puts Them In Different Positions

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The Cubs and Dodgers didn’t make a trade this offseason, but a series of transactions effectively added up to one. Here’s what I mean.

  • August of 2022: Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer announces they will release Jason Heyward at the end of the season.
  • November of 2022: Heyward officially released.
  • November of 2022: Cody Bellinger is non-tendered by the Dodgers.
  • December of 2022: Cubs sign Bellinger to one-year deal.
  • December of 2022: Dodgers sign Heyward to a minor league deal.

Both clubs had a long-tenured outfielder that was posting disappointing results. In both cases, they could have kept the player for one more year. Heyward still had one season left on his contract while Bellinger still had one arbitration season remaining. But in both cases, the club decided to cut bait, then swooped in to collect the other team’s castoff.

Now each club is going to be trying to coax a bounceback season from their respective new outfielder. In a vacuum, the Cubs are more likely to succeed. Bellinger has struggled over the past two years, producing a dismal .165/.240/.302 batting line in 2021 and then a subpar .210/.265/.389 slash last year. However, he was above average in 2020 and was the National League’s Most Valuable Player in 2019. He launched 47 home runs in that MVP season while hitting .305/.406/.629 for a wRC+ of 161. He also stole 15 bases and was graded well for his defensive work, being deemed to be worth 7.7 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs.

Heyward, on the other hand, has never really touched that kind of ceiling, and certainly not recently. He had a strong showing at the plate in 2020 but hasn’t been an above average hitter in a full season since 2015. He hit .293/.359/.439 for the Cardinals that year, leading to a 121 wRC+. He also stole 23 bases and was strong in the field, leading to a 5.6 fWAR tally. However, he’s been well below that type of production since then, including being below replacement level last year.

Bellinger was himself below replacement level in 2021, but that was at least partly caused by shoulder issues. Both players have struggled in recent years but Bellinger was an MVP not too long ago. Heyward has never been on that tier and hasn’t been close in almost a decade. Bellinger also plays the more premier position, as he figures to be the Cubs’ everyday center fielder. Heyward has played center on occasion but has primarily been a right fielder in his career. Given that Bellinger is only 27 years old and Heyward is 33, the likelihood of a return to form would seem to be stronger with Bellinger.

The Cubs seem to have backed the horse more likely to end up in the winner’s circle, but they also have way more on the line. Heyward still had $22MM left on his deal when he was released and the Cubs are still on the hook for that. Assuming he is eventually added to the Dodgers’ roster, they will only be responsible for paying him the prorated league minimum, with that amount subtracted from what the Cubs pay.

Bellinger, on the other hand, isn’t owed anything by the Dodgers since they didn’t tender him a contract for this year. The Cubs brought him aboard by guaranteeing him $17.5MM, in the form of a $12.5MM salary and $5MM buyout on a mutual option for 2024. That means that the Cubs are paying the salaries of both players, with the figures combining to be worth almost $40MM. The Dodgers aren’t really committed to either player right now and won’t even be paying meaningful money if Heyward does make the team.

Heyward’s chances of cracking the roster seem to have increased lately. With Gavin Lux potentially out for the entire season, it seems that Chris Taylor will be spending more time on the infield and less in the outfield. That subtracts from the club’s outfield depth a bit, perhaps increasing the need for a non-roster invitee like Heyward.

There’s also a bit of positive buzz around Heyward in spring so far. Last month, Freddie Freeman told reporters, including Alden González of ESPN, that Heyward had altered his stance and “might have unlocked something.” Heyward has four hits in ten at-bats so far this spring, including a pair of home runs. A few good spring games don’t mean much and it’s dangerous to draw meaningful conclusions from them, but it’s nonetheless encouraging, especially given the club’s penchant for helping journeymen find the best versions of themselves. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last week that Heyward is impressing L.A. officials and expected to make the team.

Again, this isn’t to get carried away. The season hasn’t even begun and a few good spring games shouldn’t make us forget about Heyward’s past six full seasons. It’s entirely possible that he continues to disappoint and this hot spring eventually becomes a footnote. But the Dodgers have little to lose in that case. It might be a bit embarrassing if Bellinger returns to form after they let him go for nothing. But at least they saved his salary, which was projected to be $18.1MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. They were then able to redirect that money into players like Noah Syndergaard and J.D. Martinez, who will cost $23MM combined this year.

The Cubs are perhaps facing a much more cringeworthy worst-case scenario. There is some non-zero chance that they have to watch Heyward thrive in Los Angeles while Bellinger struggles in Chicago, as they pay the salaries of both players. Time will tell whether that scenario is likely or not, but the Cubs have almost forty million reasons to hope it doesn’t come true.

Cubs Sign Cody Bellinger

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December 14: The Cubs have officially announced the signing.

December 6: The Cubs are in agreement on a deal with outfielder Cody Bellinger. It will be a one-year deal with a $12.5MM salary and a $5MM buyout on a mutual option, bringing the guarantee to $17.5MM. Bellinger is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Bellinger, 27, has been one of the more interesting free agents this offseason, given that he has shown incredible upside in the past but has been in a dismal downturn in recent years. Over his first three seasons, 2017 to 2019, Bellinger hit 111 home runs and stole 39 bases. He walked in 12.4% of his plate appearances, leading to a batting line of .278/.368/.559 for a wRC+ of 140, indicating he was 40% better than league average during that time. That included a 2019 season where he hit 47 home runs, swiped 15 bags and produced a wRC+ of 161. He also provided excellent outfield defense, leading to a tally of 7.7 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs. He was awarded the National League Most Valuable Player award for that season.

Bellinger slid a bit from those heights in the shortened 2020 season. He hit .239/.333/.455, still above average with his wRC+ finishing at 112, but a significant drop-off from previous seasons. An ill-advised celebration in the postseason caused a shoulder injury that required surgery and he hasn’t seemed himself since. He hit just .165/.240/.302 in 2021 for a wRC+ of 47, then bounced back a bit in 2022 but still finished at .210/.265/.389, wRC+ of 83.

Despite those down years, Bellinger’s salary kept climbing for a few reasons. He reached arbitration for the first time going into 2020, on the heels of his MVP campaign, as a Super Two player. He quickly jumped up to $11.5MM in his first year of eligibility and then to $16.1MM for 2021 after having a diminished but still productive 2020. Since the arbitration system is designed to push salaries up, Bellinger jumped to $17MM for 2022 despite his poor performance in the prior season. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected another jump to $18.1MM for 2023 but the Dodgers decided to cut bait and non-tendered Bellinger, sending him to free agency. With Bellinger now moving on to a new club, they will have to chart a new course in center field for 2023.

Despite the rough few years Bellinger has had, he still found robust interest as a free agent. At one point, Heyman reported that there were 11 teams at the table. That’s due to a couple of factors, one of them being that Bellinger was looking for a one-year deal so that he could potentially return to form and then go back to free agency in search of a better deal. That opened the door to many suitors who would normally be wary of a lengthy commitment but would happily take a short-term bet on a player with MVP upside. There’s also the fact that Bellinger provides a decent floor with his speed and excellent center field defense. Despite a subpar batting line in 2022, he still produced 1.7 fWAR by stealing 17 bases and producing six Outs Above Average in center field.

The Cubs were linked to Bellinger a few weeks ago and make plenty of sense as a landing spot for him. The rebuilding team had a rotating cast of characters playing center field for them this year, including Christopher Morel, Jason Heyward, Rafael Ortega, Nelson Velázquez and Michael Hermosillo. All of those players were subpar at the plate except for Morel, who is a natural infielder and produced poor defensive numbers on the grass. The Cubs have some intriguing outfield prospects that could fill this role in the long run, but Bellinger and Ian Happ are set to become free agents a year from now, meaning there’s plenty of long-term runway. Seiya Suzuki, who’s controlled through 2026, is the only outfielder penciled in for the long haul.

Financially, there’s no real impediment for the Cubs either. Bellinger’s contract pushes their commitments to just under $140MM for next year, according to Roster Resource. They had an Opening Day payroll of $143MM in 2022, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but have been over $203MM in recent seasons and should have plenty of space still to work with.

The Cubs have been rebuilding in recent years but could be aggressive this offseason in trying to return to contention in 2023. Whether they are successful or not, Bellinger could potentially be valuable to them. As mentioned, Bellinger can still be a useful ballplayer even if his bat doesn’t rebound to previous levels. If he and the team are both playing well, that’s a great outcome for all involved. If he’s playing well and the club is bad, his short-term deal means he should be able to be flipped at the deadline for prospects. As mentioned, even if Bellinger doesn’t truly bounce back, he can still be a useful player with his glovework and baserunning, meaning he could still be an interested trade chip regardless.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post was first with Bellinger going to the Cubs. Jeff Passan of ESPN first had the $17.5MM guarantee. Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times first reported the structure of the $12.5MM salary with $5MM buyout on the mutual option.

Quick Hits: Kiermaier, Dodgers, Red Sox, Marlins, Bellinger, Bell, Rays, Diaz, Reds

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Kevin Kiermaier is off the market after agreeing to a deal with the Blue Jays earlier today, and the former Gold Glover was drawing interest elsewhere on the market.  The Dodgers “were in the running down to the end” on Kiermaier, according to Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link), as Kiermaier was presumably being eyed as the left-handed hitting, center field replacement for Cody Bellinger.  Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is no stranger to Kiermaier, as Friedman was the Rays’ general manager when Kiermaier began his career in Tampa Bay.

Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom is also a former member of Tampa’s front office, but Kiermaier and the Sox had only “periphery discussions” about a possible contract, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo tweets.  Adding Kiermaier would’ve helped the Sox address their needs in the outfield, but the newly-signed Masataka Yoshida is Boston’s biggest swing in the outfield market to date.  For now, the first-choice Red Sox starting outfield looks like Yoshida in left field, Enrique Hernandez in center, and Alex Verdugo in right.

More from around baseball…

  • Speaking of past pursuits, Bellinger and Josh Bell were among the players “targeted” by the Marlins, according to Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald.  Both free agents are now off the market, after Bellinger signed with the Cubs and Bell joined the Guardians.  Bellinger would’ve been a natural fit for the Marlins’ longstanding need in center field, and would’ve at least provided strong defense, even if it remains to be seen if his bat can return to anything close to his past MVP levels of production.  Bell has provided solid (if not always consistent) offense over the last two seasons, and the Marlins naturally have a lot of familiarity with Bell from his days with the Nationals.  Miami already parted ways with Lewin Diaz and Garrett Cooper has been a trade candidate in the past, so it would seem like first base could be a target position for the Marlins as they look to add some much-needed pop to their lineup.
  • Though the Rays are also looking to add offense and particularly a left-handed hitting first base option, Bell “wasn’t high on their list,” Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes.  It’s a moot point anyway with Bell now in Cleveland, and the Rays can continue their search for a bat at just about any position.  “Outside of maybe a shortstop, there probably aren’t too many other areas where we’d say, ’No, we don’t have any interest in that’….We’re fortunate, because we have enough moving pieces and versatility with our players that there’s a lot of different players we could bring in and make it work,” Rays GM Peter Bendix told Topkin and other reporters.
  • “Teams have checked” in with the Reds about Alexis Diaz, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes.  No trade seems close or particularly likely, given how the rookie right-hander looks more like a building block than a trade chip.  In his first MLB season, Diaz finished fifth in NL Rookie of the Year voting after posting a 1.84 ERA over 63 2/3 innings out of the Reds’ bullpen.  Apart from a very high 12.9% walk rate, Diaz’s Statcast metrics were otherwise excellent, and he could be on his way to joining older brother Edwin as a star closer.  Interestingly, the Mets explored a trade for the younger Diaz before the trade deadline, but while Cincinnati is in a rebuild phase, Nightengale figures it “would take an absolute haul to even pique the Reds’ interest” in a Diaz swap.

Dodgers, Rockies, Reds Exploring Center Field Market

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Any chance of the Dodgers retaining Cody Bellinger at a lower price after they non-tendered him were dashed this afternoon, with the 2019 NL MVP agreeing to terms on a $17.5MM pact with the Cubs. Shortly after news of that agreement broke, L.A. manager Dave Roberts met with reporters and confirmed the club is scouring the market for center field help (via Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times).

Aside from Aaron Judge, the free agent class is handily led by Brandon Nimmo. The longtime Met is coming off arguably a career-best season in which he hit .274/.367/.433 over a personal-high 673 plate appearances. Headed into his age-30 campaign, the lefty-swinging Nimmo is widely expected to command a deal that tops nine figures. Nimmo has drawn interest from the Yankees, Giants, Rays, Mariners and Blue Jays in addition to the incumbent Mets. There’s been no concrete reports of any interest on L.A.’s part, though they’re certainly capable of exploring that market.

Teams not interested in making that kind of commitment are facing a rather sharp drop to the next tier. It’s possible that applies to the Dodgers, and it’s certainly a factor for the Rockies and Reds. Colorado general manager Bill Schmidt tells Danielle Allentuck of the Colorado Springs Gazette the team is seeking a left-handed hitter, preferably a player who can factor into center field (Twitter link). Nimmo fits that description, but both Allentuck and Nick Groke of the Athletic suggested yesterday he’d be too pricey for the Rockies.

Meanwhile, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports the Reds are seeking center field help and have looked to the free agent market. As with Colorado, Nimmo’s certainly out of the question for Cincinnati. Nightengale suggests the team is likely looking at one-year offers for hitters of interest. Payroll limitations have loomed over the Reds in each of the last two offseasons, and GM Nick Krall told reporters yesterday the front office has “a little bit of money” to spend this winter but cautioned they “don’t have a ton” at their disposal.

With Bellinger off the board, the market beyond Nimmo is very thin. Kevin Kiermaier is perhaps the only regular center fielder available, and he’s coming off a .228/.281/.369 showing with the Rays before his season was cut short by hip surgery. Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweeted this afternoon the Mets could look into Kiermaier if Nimmo signs elsewhere. Beyond the longtime Ray, the market is led by depth options like Rafael Ortega, Adam Engel and Jackie Bradley Jr. Perhaps teams could look to Andrew Benintendi or Joey Gallo given the scarcity of the center field market, although both players have worked exclusively in the corners for the past couple seasons.

It’s a similar story on the trade market, where there aren’t many obvious candidates. Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds will be the subject of renewed speculation after his trade request became public last week, but the Bucs have maintained it won’t increase their likelihood of actually making a move. The Diamondbacks are known to be open to offers on a number of their young outfielders but only in deals that’d net them MLB help. Speculatively speaking, players like Michael A. Taylor or Trent Grisham could plausibly come up in trade discussions, but there’s been no indication either is currently on the block.

Brandon Nimmo Notes: Mets, Rockies

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Brandon Nimmo will make an in-person appearance at the Winter Meetings on Tuesday, adding to the intrigue surrounding his market.  As the top center fielder available, Nimmo has been publicly linked to the Mariners, Giants, Blue Jays, Rays, and Yankees, and probably several other unknown teams have also checked in on his availability.

Despite all this interest, it remains possible that Nimmo might remain in Queens, as Mets GM Billy Eppler told MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and other reports that the Mets have continued to have “dialogue” with Nimmo and his representatives.  As the offseason got underway, reports surfaced that the Mets were prioritizing re-signing Nimmo and Edwin Diaz from their large pool of internal free agents.  Diaz, of course, re-signed with New York before the free agent market even officially opened, inking a five-year, $102MM deal to remain with the Mets.

Nimmo remains available almost a month after Diaz put pen to paper, though that isn’t surprising given the large amount of interest in Nimmo’s services, and the possibility that his next contract could top Diaz’s dollar figure.  Also, Scott Boras is Nimmo’s agent, and Boras usually encourages his clients to fully test the open market before considering circling back to their former teams.

Pitching has been the chief focus of the Mets’ offseason to date, with Diaz re-signed and now Justin Verlander agreeing to a deal with the Amazins today.  While the Mets continue to look at more rotation candidates, it stands to reason that with an ace pitcher and a star closer now checked off the winter to-do list, Eppler and company can now turn more attention to addressing center field.

The Rockies are one team that no longer seems to be pursuing Nimmo, as both Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette and Nick Groke of the Athletic feel the club isn’t a fit considering Nimmo’s desire for a long-term contract.  While the Rox are looking for outfielders, they would prefer a shorter-term option so that any of the club’s top outfield prospects (i.e. Zac Veen) don’t get blocked.  To this end, Cody Bellinger continues to be an Colorado’s radar, as Bellinger is reportedly only looking for a one-year contract in order to re-establish his market.

The Opener: Starters, Shortstops, Bellinger

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What sort of shopping is happening in MLB free agency on this Cyber Monday?

1. Is The Backend Starting Pitching Market About To Move?

This year’s free agent starting pitching market is headlined by aces Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon. But many teams already know they won’t be shopping in that aisle and don’t need to wait around to see where those guys sign. The White Sox made the first significant move of the lower tiers, grabbing Mike Clevinger on a one-year, $12MM deal this weekend. This was right around MLBTR’s prediction of one-year and $10MM. For the other teams looking to make this level of investment, will they push on to similar pitchers? Corey Kluber, Johnny Cueto, Wade Miley and Kyle Gibson would make sense as backup targets for the teams that missed on Clevinger and those pitchers could get increased interest in the near future. Noah Syndergaard returned from Tommy John in 2022 and was relatively effective, but with diminished velocity and results compared to before the surgery. Will he have to settle for another one-year deal like last year or did he show enough to push himself into a multi-year deal?

2. Will Any Of The “Big Four” Shortstops Sign Before The End Of The Year?

The rumors involving the “Big Four” shortstops have been flying lately, with various teams interested in Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. However, it’s unclear if any of them are particularly close to reaching a deal. Will there be any movement between now and the end of the year? One factor might be agent Scott Boras, who represents both Correa and Bogaerts, as well as Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Josh Bell, Taijuan Walker, J.D. Martinez, Cody Bellinger, Jurickson Profar, Joey Gallo and others. Boras has previously shown a willingness to wait until the New Year to find the best deals for his clients, but he surely can’t do that with all of them. As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes, “Boras has so many free-agent clients, he probably will want to start taking some off the board.” Does that mean Boras will start striking deals at the Winter Meetings that start on Sunday? Or maybe even before?

3. How High Will Cody Bellinger’s Salary Go?

Cody Bellinger has fallen on hard times in recent years, having below-average offensive seasons in both 2021 and 2022. However, his previous MVP-winning production pushed his arbitration salary up, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a salary of $18.1MM for 2023. The Dodgers weren’t willing to pay him at that level after his two lost seasons and presumably couldn’t find a willing trade partner either, leading to Bellinger’s non-tender a couple of weeks ago. The interest in Bellinger as a free agent has been robust, with Jon Heyman of The New York Post reporting last week that 11 teams are at the table. Despite Bellinger’s rough results in recent years, plenty of teams need help in center and there aren’t many great options. Though no team was willing to give up anything noteworthy in a trade in exchange for the ability to pay Bellinger close to $20MM, is there a team willing to pay him in that range when it only costs money?

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