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Cody Bellinger

Which Of The Boras Four Will Be The First To Sign?

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Spring Training games got underway yesterday. The regular season opens in less than a month. Offseason activity is far from over, though, largely on account of the so-called “Boras Four.” Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman remain unsigned.

Over the past couple weeks, a handful of teams have indirectly suggested they weren’t going to be suitors for the top free agents. High-level executives with the Giants, Rangers, Nationals, Mariners and Twins have downplayed the chance of a free agent strike of note. Angels owner Arte Moreno has suggested payroll is coming down, while Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins indicated they could have to move money if they’re to make another significant acquisition. Others, like the Red Sox and Cubs, appear to be in a holding pattern as they try to wait out the market.

Perhaps there’s some element of public posturing from a few of those teams. If any of these players are close to an agreement, though, there hasn’t been much indication of that. Unsubstantiated reports suggested the Yankees were closing in on a deal with Snell earlier this week, but both SNY’s Andy Martino and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com confirmed there hasn’t been any recent movement on that front.

If the number of plausible suitors for any of this group has dwindled, perhaps a Spring Training injury can change the calculus. The Orioles revealed early in camp that #2 starter Kyle Bradish has a UCL injury that’ll send him to the injured list. Mets staff ace Kodai Senga was diagnosed with a posterior capsule strain in his throwing shoulder yesterday; he’ll also start the year on the shelf. President of baseball operations David Stearns shot down the idea that’d increase the urgency for the Mets to go outside the organization for rotation help.

Again, it’s possible that’s designed not to publicly concede leverage in talks with the Boras Corporation if the Mets did circle back on Snell or Montgomery. To this point, there’s no indication any of these players have meaningfully moved off asking prices from the early part of the offseason. Will that change, or will one of these teams push beyond their comfort zone and reward any of these players’ patience?

Whose market with thaw most quickly? Which of the Boras four is going to be the first to agree to terms? Will any of this group linger in free agency beyond Opening Day?

 

 

Pohlad: Twins “Not In The Market” For Top Remaining Free Agents

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As the baseball world collectively wonders where top-tier free agents like Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman will sign, it seems scarcely a day goes by without at least one team effectively proclaiming itself to be out of that market. The Rangers, Blue Jays, Angels, Giants, Nationals and Mariners have all seen a top baseball ops executive or ownership representative cast doubt on their ability and/or willingness to make further free agent additions of note. Add the Twins to that growing list, as owner Joe Pohlad said in an appearance with WCCO radio’s Jason DeRusha today that his club isn’t likely to make a significant late splash like they did when signing Carlos Correa a couple offseasons ago (audio link).

“…We’re not going to go out and spend $30MM on a player right now,” Pohlad plainly stated without mentioning any of Bellinger, Snell, Montgomery or Chapman by name. “The players that are out there right now that probably a bunch of fans are talking about, we are not in the market for those players.”

Minnesota never looked like a good fit for either of the position players — particularly Chapman — but the Twins are known to be looking for rotation help after seeing Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle depart as free agents. A late deal with Snell or Montgomery would’ve registered as something of a surprise, given the organization’s candid acknowledgment of plans to reduce payroll amid television uncertainty this winter, but their late entry into the Correa market a couple winters ago might’ve left some to wonder whether a similar approach could be in the offing here. Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote just yesterday that he “would not discount the Twins as a wild card” for the remaining starters, but Pohlad’s comments today strongly suggest otherwise.

The Twins said early this winter that payroll would likely take a step back, and at the time, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported a rough target of $125-140MM. Minnesota currently sits just south of that number, at a projected $123.5MM per Roster Resource. It should be noted that Pohlad did not rule out any subsequent additions at all — rather just a big play at the top end of the market.

“…There are definitely other players that can have a positive impact on our team that [president of baseball operations Derek Falvey], I’m sure, is looking at,” Pohlad added.

The Twins, for instance, have reportedly expressed interest in unsigned players like Michael Lorenzen, Adam Duvall and Michael A. Taylor. Signing one or even two of those names would cost considerably less than a run at Montgomery or Snell. They also watched old friend Jake Odorizzi’s recent workout for teams. Falvey and his staff have also never been ones to shy away from trades late in the offseason. Deals to acquire Pablo Lopez (Jan. 23) and Odorizzi (Feb. 17) were both completed well after the New Year in their respective offseasons. The acquisition of Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan came on the eve of Opening Day in 2022.  It remains possible that some pitching or right-handed-hitting outfield help could be acquired via that market.

Generally speaking, it’s been a quiet offseason for the Twins. They shipped stalwart infielder Jorge Polanco to the Mariners late last month in a deal netting right-handers Justin Topa and Anthony DeSclafani and prospects Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen. Minnesota netted about $6.5MM in that deal as well and reinvested that money in free agent deals to sign Carlos Santana and Jay Jackson. More recently, they flipped utilityman Nick Gordon to the Marlins for lefty reliever Steven Okert.

Hollander: Mariners Additions Likely To Be “More On The Margins”

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Mariners general manager Justin Hollander met with reporters this afternoon to discuss the possibility of some late-offseason acquisitions. While Hollander — who is second in the Seattle front office hierarchy behind baseball operations president Jerry Dipoto — left the door ajar for anything, he indicated the likelier course of action was to supplement towards the back of the roster.

“You never know. I think this group of players that we have — our 40-man roster as is — we may add on the margins. We may add in a more significant way, but I would expect it’s probably more on the margins than a real significant way based on where we’re at,” Hollander said (link via Daniel Kramer of MLB.com).

The comments come a couple days after Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reported that the M’s have had internal discussions about Matt Chapman, one of the top four unsigned free agents. Hollander didn’t comment on Chapman — the CBA limits what team personnel are allowed to say regarding specific players — but Kramer writes that the M’s conversations about the third baseman occurred earlier in the month.

There was never any indication that Seattle is deeply involved in Chapman’s market. Kramer reports that the M’s interest has been contingent on the four-time Gold Glover lowering his asking price significantly. According to Kramer, a nine-figure deal for Chapman would be a “non-starter” for Seattle. The MLB.com report indicates the Mariners would be amenable to a shorter-term/incentive-laden contract, although that unsurprisingly hasn’t been of interest to Chapman’s camp at the Boras Corporation.

Third base looks like a relative weak point for Seattle. The Mariners dealt Eugenio Suárez to the Diamondbacks at the beginning of the offseason. They brought in Luis Urías in a small trade with the Red Sox and indirectly addressed the hot corner with last month’s Jorge Polanco deal. Installing Polanco at second base pushes lefty-hitting Josh Rojas over to third, likely in a platoon with the right-handed Urías.

Urías enters camp at a little less than full strength. The Mariners reveled today that he is battling some soreness in his throwing shoulder coming out of winter ball (via Divish). It’s not a serious issue but will keep him from throwing across the diamond in infield drills early in Spring Training.

Hollander downplayed any concern about the third base platoon. Asked if the M’s felt they’re vulnerable at the position, he replied: “I don’t really feel that way, no. … We feel really good about what the combination of Josh and Luis can do for us this year.”

That’s the expected tone for a GM to strike publicly. That said, Chapman is the only unsigned third baseman who’d be a clear upgrade on the Rojas/Urías pairing. If Seattle is simply keeping tabs on his market in case the opportunity presents itself to jump in at a lower price, they’re presumably otherwise content with their in-house options.

Seattle has also been loosely tied to the top two remaining free agents, Blake Snell and Cody Bellinger. The link to Snell has primarily been about geography rather than team need. The defending NL Cy Young winner is a Seattle native and there has been some speculation he could prefer to stay on the West Coast after three seasons in San Diego.

Despite that chatter, Kramer writes that the Mariners haven’t shown much interest in Snell at any point during the winter. The M’s traded rehabbing starter Robbie Ray and depth arm Marco Gonzales but have held onto their top five starters: George Kirby, Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Former top 10 pick Emerson Hancock remains on hand as a high-upside depth piece.

Bellinger was arguably a better roster fit, but Kramer reports that Seattle hasn’t considered the former MVP in either of the past two offseasons. The M’s reacquired Mitch Haniger and brought in Luke Raley from Tampa Bay as part of a reshaped corner outfield. Seattle shipped out one-time top prospect Jarred Kelenic, leaving Haniger and Raley as the presumptive starters alongside Julio Rodríguez on the outfield grass.

Seattle has generally preferred the trade route over free agency under Dipoto, particularly with regards to position players. This offseason’s two-year, $24MM deal for Mitch Garver was the first multi-year free agent contract for a hitter that Seattle has given out in Dipoto’s tenure. Roster Resource projects the organization’s 2024 player spending in the $135MM range. That’s a middle-of-the-pack figure that’s right in line with last year’s approximate $137MM Opening Day sum.

Cubs Chairman On Cody Bellinger: Some Discussions But Not A Negotiation

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Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts spoke to members of the media today, including Jesse Rogers of ESPN, and addressed the topic of free agent Cody Bellinger. “There has been some discussions but it hasn’t become a negotiation yet,” he said.

“We’re just waiting,” Ricketts said. “Waiting for whenever he and his agent are going to engage. It could be any time now or it could be a few weeks. We’ll see where it goes.” Ricketts continued: “Until they are ready to negotiate, there’s not much we can do. We just have to wait for when it gets serious before talking about what the end money amounts are.”

When asked if he had spoken with Bellinger’s agent, Scott Boras, Ricketts said: “I don’t talk to Scott. One of his signature moves is to go talk to the owner. When you do that, you undermine the credibility of your GM. Inserting yourself into that negotiation, I don’t think that helps. I don’t talk to him.”

Boras disagreed with this framing of the relationship, saying that the Cubs called him about Bellinger last winter. “Free agency is about recruiting players,” Boras said. “It’s the normal owner’s signature move to be involved in the efforts of recruiting players and reaching out to me so I can convey to the player the ownership of the team covets them. That is the essence of free agency and it is a custom and practice for ownership to express commitment and involvement. When Cody was a free agent last year the Cubs engaged and were very aggressive in their pursuit. And their process is no different this year. So I am not clear as to what Tom is suggesting.”

Bellinger, 28, came into the offseason as one of the most exciting players available. He suffered through some rough injury-marred seasons in 2021 and 2022, ending up non-tendered by the Dodgers, but bounced back with the Cubs on a one-year deal. He hit 26 home runs last year and slashed .307/.356/.525  for a wRC+ of 134. He also stole 20 bases and provided solid defense in center field and at first base. Given his youth and previous MVP upside, he seemed like a strong candidate for a huge deal, with him and Boras reportedly looking for $200MM or more.

But there have also been factors working against that. One is the lack of belief in his bounceback campaign, with detractors pointing to his tepid Statcast data. His hard hit rate was only in the 10th percentile of qualified league hitters, with his average exit velocity 22nd and his barrel rate 27th. It’s possible that Bellinger chose to prioritize contact over power, as his 15.6% strikeout rate last year was a career low, but the lack of impact may be a concern regardless.

There’s also the prior two seasons to consider, as Bellinger hit a dismal .193/.256/.355 in that time. He required shoulder surgery after 2020 and it’s been suggested by some, including his agent, that he was never fully healthy in that time. Perhaps that’s true but it also could be playing a factor in the fact that he’s lingering on the market in the middle of February.

There are also external factors at play. Not all clubs in the league can plausibly be expected to give out the kind of deal Bellinger and Boras are looking for. Of the possible fits, some of those clubs are working with diminished spending capacity in relation to the ongoing saga surrounding Diamond Sports Group and the general loss of TV revenue from cord cutting. That’s also had domino effects, as the Padres were one of the clubs that had to cut costs, which led to them flipping Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Yankees. The Yanks were seen as one of the best landing spots for Bellinger coming into the winter but they were able to address their outfield via trade instead.

Other clubs that once seemed like viable landing spots have also become less likely. The Giants were alongside the Yankees as a strong fit back in the fall, but they signed Jung Hoo Lee to be their everyday center fielder. The Blue Jays re-signed Kevin Kiermaier. The Angels are apparently cutting payroll and also added Aaron Hicks to their outfield mix. The Mariners acquired Luke Raley and Mitch Haniger while Atlanta got Jarred Kelenic.

That’s led to speculation that Bellinger may need to pivot to a short-term deal with an eye on returning to the open market when the conditions have changed. Ideally, he will have had another strong seasons and silenced some of the doubters. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored that possibility and took a look at where Bellinger might find such a deal.

A return to the Cubs has arguably remained his best landing spot. The club addressed first base by acquiring Michael Busch but center field could still be open between Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki as the corner guys. Pete Crow-Armstrong is perhaps the club’s center fielder of the future but his first taste of the majors was a struggle and he also struck out in 29.7% of his Triple-A plate appearances last year. He’s considered a superlative defender and a threat on the bases, so he doesn’t need to hit a ton to be a viable regular, but there’s an argument to bringing back Bellinger and letting PCA earn his way into playing time. The club also doesn’t have a strict designated hitter so it’s theoretically possible for each of Bellinger, Happ, Suzuki and Crow-Armstrong to get regular playing time in the same lineup.

That doesn’t necessarily mean the Cubs will actually pull the trigger on a deal, but they should have the money to do it. “We’re right there at CBT (Competitive Balance Tax) levels,” Ricketts said today. “It’s kind of our natural place for us. That should be enough to win our division and be consistent every year.”

Roster Resource pegs the club’s CBT number at $208MM, almost $30MM below this year’s base threshold of $237MM. Based on the tenor of the comments from Ricketts, it seems they prefer to stay under that line. That still gives them the ability to make a notable deal, such as one for Bellinger, but the seeming low level of communication between the two sides suggests there hasn’t been too much urgency towards going down that path. It would also likely mean committing to a long-term deal, as any short-term discussions would surely lead to a higher AAV that would push them over the tax line, something Ricketts seemingly prefers not to do. Whether that’s brinkmanship or a genuine reflection of the club’s position remains to be seen, with Opening Day now just over a month away.

What Could Cody Bellinger’s Market Look Like On A Short-Term Deal?

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As the top free agents continue to linger on the market, an increasing number of fans have begun to inquire — on social media, in the comments at MLBTR, in questions to the MLBTR Podcast and in our regular chats here at MLBTR — about the possibility of any of the top four pivoting to a short-term deal. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently outlined the potential pitfalls in that scenario for lefty Blake Snell, whose stock isn’t likely to ever be higher than it is right now coming off his second career Cy Young win at 31 years of age. Jordan Mongtomery, likewise, probably won’t have a better platform than this past year’s postseason heroics. Like Snell, he’d be 32 next winter, which won’t do his earning potential any favors. Matt Chapman is also heading into his age-31 season.

If there’s one of the “big four” who might be best-suited to go with a short-term deal, it’s the youngest of the bunch: Cody Bellinger. At 28 years of age (29 in July), a return trip to free agency for Bellinger would come at a time when he’d still be positioned as one of the youngest names on the market. A short-term deal for Bellinger would also allow him to hit free agency next winter without a qualifying offer — he rejected one from the Cubs in November, and players can only receive one QO in their career — and it could provide him the opportunity to “prove” that his 2023 output wasn’t a fluke.

After a pair of injury-ruined 2021-22 seasons, Bellinger was non-tendered by the Dodgers. He’d undergone shoulder surgery following the 2020 season, and agent Scott Boras has unsurprisingly contended that Bellinger was never fully healthy during that pair of dreary seasons in ’21-’22, when he slashed a combined .193/.256/.355 in 900 plate appearances. The Cubs bet $17.5MM on Bellinger bouncing back to something closer to his prior Rookie of the Year and NL MVP form and were rewarded with a huge .306/.356/.525 slash with 26 homers and 20 steals.

It was an outstanding resurgence but not one without its red flags. Bellinger’s 15.6% strikeout rate was a career-low, but his 7.2% walk rate was the second-lowest of his career. More concerning to interested teams was Bellinger’s batted-ball profile. Despite his success at the plate, Bellinger ranked in the 27th percentile or lower among MLB hitters in terms of average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate. At his peak, Bellinger was a hard-contact juggernaut who ranked among the league leaders in virtually every Statcast category of note. The opposite was true in 2023, and there are likely some teams who wonder whether he can continue to produce at such lofty levels in the absence of premium (or even league-average) quality of contact.

It puts Bellinger in a precarious situation. He surely feels he’s back to his MVP form, but players coming off such a dominant performance rarely have to take a one-year “prove-it” deal. Bellinger and Boras surely feel he’s already “proven it” and that the 2021-22 can now be framed as injury-marred outliers. Teams are clearly wary of regression, if not all the way to the miserable 2021-22 output than to something decidedly less than his 2023 output.

It’s not an identical situation to the one faced by Carlos Correa in free agency two winters ago, but there are some parallels. Both were atypically young free agents and were regarded as strong defenders at premium positions. Both had won Rookie of the Year early in their careers. Neither was at his offensive peak upon reaching free agency. Correa didn’t enter the 2021-22 offseason with the Boras Corporation representing him, but he changed agencies and hired Boras midway through the offseason.

Correa’s eventual contract — a three-year, $105.3MM deal with the Twins — shocked baseball, both due to the landing spot and to the fact that top-ranked free agents rarely settle for such a short-term arrangement. He had a pair of opt-outs baked into the contract, allowing him two more bites at the free agent apple.

A similar structure, logically speaking, could provide Bellinger some protection against another injury or regression while still rewarding his massive rebound season with a top-tier annual value. There’s some merits and risk for both parties, even if it’s not the type of deal he envisioned upon bouncing back to such lofty heights with the Cubs.

The problem Bellinger might run into, however, is finding the 2024 equivalent of the 2022 Twins. Minnesota was a clear postseason hopeful aiming to win now but also had plenty of payroll room at that late stage of the offseason. The Twins were also nowhere near the luxury tax threshold. It looked like an ideal short-term partnership (though it’s obviously since turned into at least a seven-year match).

For Bellinger, the landscape looks different. Right now, there are only five Major League teams whose projected payroll is more than $20MM south of their 2023 payroll levels. Two — the White Sox and Rockies — aren’t aiming to contend and aren’t likely to put down a lucrative short-term offer for Bellinger. A third, the Padres, is only facing such a gap between current spending and 2023 spending because they’ve actively been working to cut payroll by as much as $50MM. Signing Bellinger isn’t in the cards, barring a major last-minute philosophical shift. That’s particularly true when considering that the Padres are $22MM shy of the luxury threshold; signing Bellinger would put them right back into the tax penalty when it’s clearly been a goal to reset that level.

The luxury tax is a key issue here, too. Signing Bellinger short-term will likely require a high annual value and multiple opt-outs. For a team that’s already in luxury territory, that means a potentially exorbitant overall price. As such, when looking for Bellinger landing spots on a short-term deal, it’s best to break the 30 teams up into a few different categories. Let’s run through them…

Current Luxury Tax Payors

Phillies: Over the past week, there’s been plenty of speculation about the Phillies jumping at one of the top four free agents on a short-term deal. That’s primarily due to president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski’s comment that he can’t promise that no further additions are coming because an unexpected opportunity can always present itself. But the Phils are a third-time payor who already have a projected $261MM of luxury obligations, putting them firmly into the second tier. Even a conservative estimate of a $25MM AAV on a short-term deal would mean paying a 62% tax on the contract’s first $16MM and a 95% tax on the final $9MM. In other words, it’d cost the Phillies around $18.5MM in taxes on top of Bellinger’s actual salary. Assuming an evenly distributed $25MM, that’s a total of $43MM in just 2024 to sign Bellinger. And, again, on a short-term deal the AAV will likely be much higher. Correa’s AAV was $35.1MM.

Astros: Houston’s $254MM of projected luxury obligations is a near-perfect match with Philadelphia. Unlike the Phillies, the Astros are only a first-time offender right now. They’d owe a 20% tax on the first $2MM of Bellinger’s deal, a 32% tax on the next $20MM and a 62.5% tax thereafter. Bellinger would push them into the third tier of penalization, meaning their top pick in the 2024 draft would be pushed back 10 spots. The Astros already have a record-high payroll. Signing Bellinger for even a $25MM AAV would cost around $8.675MM in taxes on top of his salary, require the forfeiture of their second-highest draft pick (by virtue of the QO) and knock their top pick back by 10 spots. Ouch.

Rangers: If Texas were going to push further into luxury territory than their current projection of $243MM (just $6MM over the first threshold), it’d surely be to sign a pitcher — likely Montgomery. The outfield is already largely set with Evan Carter, Leody Taveras and Adolis Garcia, with top prospect Wyatt Langford blitzing toward the majors. GM Chris Young has all but said he’s done signing Major League free agents. This match isn’t happening.

Blue Jays: The Jays are about $11MM over the first luxury barrier. They’re a second-time payor. That’d mean a 30% tax on the first $9MM or so of Bellinger’s deal, plus a 42.5% tax on the next $20MM and a 72.5% tax on anything thereafter (in addition to the same draft losses outlined for the Astros). GM Ross Atkins has said any notable addition would likely require subtracting elsewhere on the roster. The Jays could fit Bellinger into the mix by giving George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. more time at designated hitter, but Atkins’ comments make this hard to see. Just for illustrative purposes, a $25MM AAV on a Bellinger deal would cost the Jays $9.5MM in taxes, while jumping into Correa range would mean about $15.5MM in taxes (on top of his 2024 salary).

Braves: Atlanta is rolling with a Jarred Kelenic–Michael Harris II-Ronald Acuña Jr. outfield, with Matt Olson at first base and Marcell Ozuna at designated hitter. They don’t fit even from a roster vantage point, and they’re already $33MM over the tax line anyhow. It’s interesting to note that between the contracts they ate and the associated taxes, they wound up spending about $26MM to take on Kelenic, which isn’t all that far off from what Bellinger might end up costing — but that was much earlier in the offseason.

Yankees, Mets, Dodgers: The Yankees don’t really have room in their outfield, and the Dodgers/Bellinger relationship might not be the healthiest at the moment anyhow. Regardless, all three of these clubs are third-time payors who are already into the top luxury tier, meaning any additional dollars spent come with a 110% tax. Signing Bellinger to a $25MM AAV deal would mean $27.5MM in taxes. Bump that to $30MM AAV and you’re at $33MM in taxes. A $35MM AAV matching Correa comes with $38.5MM in taxes. All of that is on top of any salary for Bellinger.

Relatively Close to the Luxury Tax

Cubs: The incumbents! It’s not the spiciest take to suggest it, but this still seems like the most logical fit. The Cubs obviously wouldn’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign Bellinger, since they’re the ones who made him the QO (although they would give up the right to receive a compensation pick). He’d “block” Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field or Michael Busch at first base, but perhaps only for a year. And, with injuries, both PCA and Busch would very likely still get their opportunities. The Cubs are $29MM shy of the luxury tax threshold and have $195MM in actual payroll commitments. Bellinger would push them well past the $203MM franchise-record mark and perhaps just over the first luxury tier, but should that matter? This is the cleanest and best fit, and a short-term arrangement should only add to the appeal.

Red Sox: Like so many of the teams on this list, if the Sox were to make one more big splash, it’d probably be on pitching (likely Montgomery). Boston is $39MM from the tax line and sits at $177MM in actual payroll commitments. They have the financial wherewithal to do this, but they also have an outfield of Tyler O’Neill, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela — with DH Masataka Yoshida also in the fold. This doesn’t feel viable.

Angels: The Angels’ focus should be on pitching, but owner Arte Moreno has historically balked at long-term deals for starting pitchers. The Halos have Taylor Ward and Mike Trout in the outfield, but Mickey Moniak and Jo Adell aren’t the most exciting options for the remaining spot. Moniak hit well in 2023 but did so with a .397 BABIP and 35% strikeout rate that both scream for regression. Adell was once a top prospect but is out of options and hasn’t established himself. Moreno said this week the team will likely operate on a lesser budget in 2024, but we’ve seen time and again that he’s drawn to star hitters and Bellinger on a short-term deal would fit that mold. With $188MM in tax obligations, the Angels could sign Bellinger and still avoid reaching the threshold.

D-backs: Arizona is already at a new record payroll ($142MM) and is surprisingly within striking distance of the $237MM tax line ($189MM). Bellinger wouldn’t put them over, but signing him would require a level of aggression we’ve not seen from the Snakes since they shocked the world with their Zack Greinke signing nearly a decade ago. The Diamondbacks don’t need outfielders, necessarily, but center fielder Alek Thomas hasn’t proven himself at the plate. On a short-term deal, could GM Mike Hazen feel opportunistic?

Padres: The entire baseball world has learned to never say never with regard to San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, but in an offseason where they Padres have been trying to cut payroll by as much as $50MM and have pronounced questions at the back of the rotation, this feels like a bridge too far. If the Friars were to trade Ha-Seong Kim, pick up some kind of arm in that deal and then reallocate some of the savings to Bellinger, you could almost squint and see it. Typing this feels crazy, but that’s often how I feel when writing about Padres moves that actually did happen as well. The Padres are $25MM shy of the tax line at the moment. Signing Bellinger likely puts them over for a third straight year, meaning a 30% tax on a portion of his deal.

Giants: San Francisco already signed a center fielder to a nine-figure deal. They now have an all-lefty outfield and substantial questions in the rotation. It does feel like the Giants have the capacity for one more big move — they’re $33MM from their franchise-record payroll and $24MM from the luxury tax threshold — but if they make that move it’ll probably be on a pitcher. Still, they could probably sign Bellinger short-term and only cross into tax territory by $5-8MM. And since they didn’t cross the CBT threshold in ’23, they’d only be hit with a 20% tax.

Nowhere Near the Luxury Tax

Royals: Let’s get weird! I don’t think anyone seriously expects the Royals to sign Bellinger … but no one seriously expected the Twins to sign Correa. They also didn’t expect the Royals to sign Bobby Witt Jr. to a $288.78MM extension, or to spend a (so far) combined $109.5MM on seven big league deals in free agency this winter. But here we are! This would be a shocking fit — more shocking than the Twins signing Correa — but take a look at the Kansas City outfield candidates: MJ Melendez, Kyle Isbel, Drew Waters, Nelson Velazquez, Hunter Renfroe, Dairon Blanco. Bellinger is an immediate upgrade over every member of that group. The Royals currently project for a $115MM payroll and $161MM of luxury obligations. They’re around $28MM shy of their franchise-record payroll, which came back in 2017 and under a different owner.

Mariners: The M’s have been operating under TV-related budget constraints. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has never signed a free agent hitter to a contract larger or longer than Mitch Garver’s two-year, $24MM deal since taking the reins in Seattle. This doesn’t seem particularly plausible barring a late change in approach from ownership. Perhaps the allure of signing a star like Bellinger short-term would be enough to spur that tactical shift. It’s unlikely, but we’re talking about dark horses here, aren’t we?

Twins: Like the Mariners, the Twins have been working to reduce payroll. Their current projection of $123.5MM is right around the bottom end of their reported $125-140MM target range for payroll. Minnesota has been open to adding a right-handed-hitting outfielder and further rotation depth. They did this with Correa, so let’s not rule them out entirely. But if they were to, say, trade Kyle Farmer to free up $6.3MM and then make one more notable addition, a pitcher like Montgomery seems much more plausible than another lefty-swinging outfielder.

Orioles: If the Orioles make another big splash after Corbin Burnes, it seems likely to be on a pitcher. Their outfield is set with Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander, plus top prospects like Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad on the MLB doorstep.

Cardinals, Brewers: The Cardinals already have more outfielders than they know what to do with, and Bellinger isn’t going to displace Paul Goldschmidt at first base. Milwaukee has a similar situation in the outfield, and they’ve got Rhys Hoskins at first base.

Tigers: President of baseball operations Scott Harris suggested this week he’s not inclined to sign another “everyday-type” hitter, instead preferring to give legitimate looks to the team’s young hitters. With Riley Greene, Parker Meadows, Kerry Carpenter and veteran Mark Canha in the outfield/DH mix, plus Spencer Torkelson at first base, there isn’t a great roster fit here anyhow.

Pirates, Marlins, Reds, Guardians, Rays: Five of the lowest-payroll clubs in the game. It seems safe to say no one from this group is going to seriously pursue Bellinger, even on a short-term deal.

Nationals, A’s, Rockies, White Sox: All four of these teams are in some form of rebuild/reset. The A’s certainly aren’t going to spend this type of money. Nats GM Mike Rizzo suggested he’s done adding MLB free agents. The Rockies balked at Bellinger’s one-year price last winter and are in a worse spot now. Maybe you could call the White Sox an off-the-wall dark horse, but would GM Chris Getz forfeit a draft pick to sign Bellinger short-term, knowing he’d either opt out next winter or perform poorly enough to be an unwanted contract in 2025? Doubtful.

—

The ideal fit for Bellinger on a short-term deal is a team that’s not already a tax payor or is only minimally over the line. The Cubs have been considered something of a presumptive favorite due to Bellinger’s strong year there in 2023, but as outlined above, they also make sense both from a roster and financial standpoint. Other plausible long-shot options when considering the tax and payroll ramifications could include the Angels and Giants. The Padres could add Bellinger without paying substantial taxes, but it’d run counter to the team’s cost-cutting efforts this winter. Long-shot fits with the D-backs and particularly the Royals sound a bit more sensible than one might imagine at first blush.

We certainly don’t know that Bellinger will wind up going short-term, but he’s the most sensible candidate to do so of the remaining marquee Boras clients, and if he goes that route, it could open the door for some unexpected suitors.

Dombrowski Downplays Phillies’ Desire For Outfield Help

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The Phillies announced this morning that outfielder Brandon Marsh underwent arthroscopic surgery after feeling discomfort in his left knee. With a 3-4 week recovery timetable, he’s still expected to be ready for Opening Day. As a result, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski downplayed the chances of going outside the organization for outfield help.

“We still think we’re the same way we were beforehand, when it comes to Opening Day,” he told reporters this afternoon (link via Todd Zolecki of MLB.com). “[Free agent outfielders] want guarantees, and we’re just not able to give them those guarantees. … We talk to people all the time. The reality is that we don’t have guaranteed playing time that some people want. We just don’t have that. It’s not really even a dollar issue as it is playing time.”

Assuming Marsh’s recovery proceeds as expected, he’ll slot into left field on Opening Day. Defensive stalwart Johan Rojas is set to open the year in center field while Nick Castellanos mans the corner opposite Marsh. Cristian Pache and Jake Cave project as the top depth options.

Rojas has a limited MLB track record, having appeared in only 59 career games. Paired with Philadelphia’s willingness to spend and Dombrowski’s history of pursuing star talent, that has led to loose speculation about the Phils as a possible suitor for Cody Bellinger. The front office leader has said a few times he anticipates Rojas being the starting center fielder — a sentiment he repeated earlier this week — making a Bellinger pursuit unlikely. Zolecki reports that the Phils also don’t anticipate landing either of the top two starting pitchers still available, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, barring a significant change in their respective markets.

Dombrowski also shot down the notion the Phillies are on the verge of trading for bullpen help. Unsubstantiated reports have linked them to Red Sox closer Kenley Jansen and Guardians star Emmanuel Clase in recent days. While Dombrowski didn’t address either player specifically, he said the Phils generally “do not have any ongoing conversations for bullpen guys” (via Zolecki).

While that doesn’t rule out the possibility of the Phils jumping into the mix at some point, the veteran executive pointed out that there’s not a ton of room in the season-opening bullpen. Each of José Alvarado, Matt Strahm, Gregory Soto, Jeff Hoffman and Seranthony Domínguez is locked into the relief corps. The Phils have effusively praised Orion Kerkering, a 22-year-old who debuted late last season after striking out nearly 38% of opponents in the minor leagues.

If all six of those pitchers are on the Opening Day roster, the Phils would likely have two bullpen spots remaining. Dombrowski indicated one of those would go to a long reliever — quite likely out-of-options righty Dylan Covey. That leaves one job up for grabs (assuming the Phillies aren’t committed to carrying Connor Brogdon, who is also out of options). That opens the possibility for another acquisition, yet it’s not surprising Dombrowski said they’d only acquire a pitcher they consider a meaningful upgrade over their in-house candidates.

“It only leaves one other spot, and if you go get a veteran guy, he needs to be an upgrade. Because the reality is the only one there that can be optioned in that group is Kerkering. And we may not want to be optioning him,” he said. Perhaps the opportunity for a clear upgrade comes available or a Spring Training injury changes the calculus, but it doesn’t seem the Phils anticipate an imminent bullpen pickup.

Latest On Cubs, Cody Bellinger

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The Cubs and center fielder Cody Bellinger came together on a one-year deal last offseason after Bellinger was non-tendered by the Dodgers that November. The deal went exceptionally well for both sides as Bellinger bounced back to his previous, All Star-caliber form with a .307/.356/.525 slash line in 130 games last year before returning to the open market earlier this winter. Since, then, Bellinger’s market has been a surprisingly quiet one. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand provided an update on the 28-year-old’s free agency today, suggesting that it’s a “widespread belief” in the industry that Bellinger will return to the north side when all is said and done this winter.

Even so, Feinsand makes clear that no deal is considered close between the two sides. While Bellinger is known to be seeking north of $200MM in free agency this winter, Feinsand indicates that Chicago brass is “showing restraint” in their bids for Bellinger’s services given the lack of aggressive suitors pursuing the offseason’s top free agent outfielder. While the report suggests the Blue Jays, Angels, Giants, Mets, and Mariners could all be possible suitors for the slugger’s services, Feinsand makes clear that those teams are likely only interested in the event that Bellinger’s price tag drops considerably below his current asking price.

It’s easy to see the fit for Bellinger in Chicago. While the club added infielder Michael Busch in a trade with the Dodgers this winter, giving the 26-year-old a likely inside track for the club’s wide-open first base job, the club still suffers from a relative lack of left-handed power and the return of Bellinger could help to fill the vacuum. What’s more, his 134 wRC+ last year led the team as they fell just a game short of returning to the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2018, and his departure would leave a hole in the middle of the club’s order unless he was replaced with another quality bat.

That being said, if Bellinger were to patrol center field on a regular basis that would seemingly block top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong, who made his major league debut last September with a profile highlighted by his defensive wizardry in center. While Crow-Armstrong may benefit from more development time at the Triple-A level (where he’s logged just 34 career appearances) after he went hitless in his first 19 trips to the plate in the majors last fall, the presence of Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ on long-term deals in the outfield corners could complicate the Cubs’ long-term outlook in the outfield if Bellinger does return.

More notes from the north side of Chicago…

  • As relayed by The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, veteran right-hander Kyle Hendricks recently noted that, contrary to rumors that percolated this past autumn, the sides did not discuss a potential multi-year deal before the Cubs picked up his club option back in November. Hendricks added that the sides similarly haven’t made any sort of progress on a hypothetical contract extension in the months since. The 34-year-old has spent his entire major league career with the Cubs and rebounded from a pair of injury-marred seasons to post a solid 3.74 ERA and 3.81 FIP in 24 starts for the club last year. The longest-tenured player remaining on the big league roster, Hendricks figures to reach free agency for the first time in his career next winter if the sides don’t reach an agreement before then. In the event Hendricks does depart after the 2024 campaign, it could create openings in the club’s rotation for a number of young pitchers including Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, and top pitching prospect Cade Horton.
  • While the Cubs have typically avoided committing to free agent relievers on multi-year deals in recent years, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently indicated that the club may be willing to go out of its comfort zone in order to bolster the bullpen this winter. As relayed by The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma, Hoyer noted that the Cubs have made “some” multiyear offers to bullpen arms in free agency this offseason before going on to emphasize that bolstering the club’s relief corps is a focus for the team headed into 2024. With Josh Hader and Robert Stephenson having recently come off the market, the likes of Aroldis Chapman, Matt Moore, David Robertson and Hector Neris represent the best remaining bullpen options in free agency.

The Best Remaining Fits For Cody Bellinger

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For the past six weeks, the offseason has centered on three individuals: Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. With the first two having found new homes and Yamamoto expected to choose his team within a week or two, there’s likely to be greater attention placed on Cody Bellinger.

MLBTR’s #2 free agent entering the winter, Bellinger has had a quiet offseason since declining his end of a mutual option and rejecting a qualifying offer from the Cubs. Early reports tied the lefty-hitting center fielder to the Yankees, Giants and Blue Jays. The incumbents have some amount of interest in a reunion, although the presence of highly-regarded rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong gives them leverage to pass on what’s surely still a lofty asking price.

Last week, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman wrote that Bellinger’s camp at the Boras Corporation were seeking to reach or surpass $200MM. Yet it’s fair to presume that the former MVP’s market has dwindled over the past month. Along with Soto, the Yankees acquired Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham to join Aaron Judge in the outfield. San Francisco signed Jung Hoo Lee to play center field instead. That knocks out the two teams widely perceived as the favorites. (At the beginning of the offseason, every MLBTR staffer pegged the Giants or Yankees as Bellinger’s landing spot in our Free Agent prediction contest.)

Where does that leave things for the two-time All-Star?

Likeliest Fits

  • Angels: It’s difficult to identify exactly where the Angels go from here. Los Angeles has thus far limited its offseason activity to a trio of low-cost middle relief additions (Luis García, Adam Cimber and Adam Kolarek). Ohtani was their top priority. After losing him, they’ll need to determine how aggressively to add to a roster that won only 73 games despite his MVP performance. GM Perry Minasian and new skipper Ron Washington have been clear they’re not about to rebuild. Bringing in a front-line starting pitcher appears the top priority, but they’ll also need to address a lineup that ranked 16th in runs and lost a .304/.412/.654 hitter. Bellinger would give the Angels an option to cover center field if Mike Trout needs any time on the injured list. He’d push Mickey Moniak to a fourth outfield role and could take some of the available DH at-bats. He’s also a marquee name who starred in Los Angeles, which could hold appeal to owner Arte Moreno.
  • Blue Jays: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend that the Jays looked like the top suitor for Bellinger. It’s not hard to see why. The Jays came up empty on their pursuits of Ohtani and Soto. While no one would consider Bellinger the same kind of upgrade, Toronto still has ample short-term payroll space and a need for a left-handed bat. They’re also without a clear answer in center field after Kevin Kiermaier hit free agency. The Jays could sign a corner outfielder and bump Daulton Varsho to center (or simply try to re-sign Kiermaier), but Bellinger is the best all-around position player on the open market.
  • Cubs: Bellinger was among the Cubs’ most valuable players a season ago. While they may have initially viewed him as a one-year stopgap to Crow-Armstrong, there’s an argument for bringing him back. The Cubs don’t have a clear option at first base, where Bellinger is a plus defender. His ability to play all three outfield spots would afford the organization the flexibility to start Crow-Armstrong in Triple-A (where he struck out at a concerning rate in 34 games last season) without needing to rely on journeyman Mike Tauchman to maintain his surprisingly strong form from 2023. Even if Tauchman and/or Crow-Armstrong prove deserving of everyday playing time, the Cubs could rotate Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki through designated hitter to keep their outfield fresh.

Longer Shots

  • Mets: New York could upgrade over either Starling Marte or DJ Stewart in the corner outfield. There’s room for Bellinger to join Brandon Nimmo as a long-term outfield investment, but it doesn’t seem that’s how the front office is approaching this winter. The Mets are in on Yamamoto but appear to view him as an exceptional case in what’d otherwise be a relatively quiet offseason as they focus primarily on 2025.
  • Nationals: While Washington isn’t an immediate contender, they could make a legitimate push for the playoffs by the ’25 season. Bellinger, who turned 28 in July, would still project as a productive player during that window. The Nats have top outfield prospects Dylan Crews and James Wood looming, but only Lane Thomas should have a short-term spot locked down. The Nationals struck early on the Jayson Werth signing to accelerate a rebuild a decade ago. There’d be some sense in doing that again, but they’ve been fairly quiet in recent offseasons and still have organizational uncertainty regarding their local TV deal as part of the contentious MASN arrangement with the Orioles.
  • Phillies: Philadelphia is involved on Yamamoto, suggesting an ability to stretch the budget for the right player. Whether Bellinger qualifies isn’t clear. Brandon Marsh is a solid center field option, while the Phils have Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache as options for the corner opposite Nick Castellanos. It’s not a terrible outfield, but it’s also perhaps the weakest area of an otherwise excellent roster. The Phils haven’t shied away from pursuing star talent under owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.

Payroll Questions

  • Mariners: Seattle is likely to bring in at least one outfielder to join Julio Rodríguez and a group that otherwise consists of players like Dominic Canzone, Taylor Trammell and Sam Haggerty. Bellinger fits on the roster, but the M’s have thus far sliced payroll amidst uncertainty about the revenues from their local TV deal with Root Sports. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto hasn’t signed a free agent hitter to a multi-year contract in his eight-plus years leading the Seattle front office. Breaking that streak with Bellinger would be a massive shift in operating procedure.
  • Padres: Much of what applies to the Mariners can be said about the Padres. They want to compete after a disappointing playoff miss. They need outfield help to do so. Yet they’re also facing questions about their broadcasting deal and have only cut payroll so far this offseason. With Lee’s six-year, $113MM deal pushing beyond their spending range, it’s hard to see how they could make Bellinger work.
  • Rangers: The defending World Series winners could ostensibly make room for Bellinger, perhaps by trading incumbent center fielder Leody Taveras to address an injury-plagued rotation. GM Chris Young has suggested they’re unlikely to make the kind of free agent splash they have in prior offseasons, though, so it’s far likelier they stick with an internal group of Adolis García, Taveras and Evan Carter while awaiting the arrival of top prospect Wyatt Langford.

Cody Bellinger Reportedly Seeking $200MM Or More In Free Agency

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With superstar slugger Shohei Ohtani now off the board after signing on with the Dodgers, the market has seemingly begun to come into focus for center fielder Cody Bellinger, the clear #2 position player on the free agent market this offseason. According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, Bellinger and agent Scott Boras are seeking “$200MM plus” in contract talks this winter.

That Bellinger is in position to even approach that figure is nothing short of incredible given the brutal fashion his time in LA came to an end. The outfielder dealt with shoulder, rib, and leg injuries throughout the 2021 season and struggled badly when he managed to take the field that season, posting an abysmal .165/.240/.302 slash line across 350 trips to the plate that season. While he was able to avoid the injured list in 2022, the diminished results lingered as he slashed just .210/.265/.389, prompting the Dodgers to non-tender him last offseason.

Not long after being non-tendered, Bellinger took a one-year deal with the Cubs and entered the 2023 campaign hoping to rebuild his value ahead of another trip to the open market after the season. He certainly succeeded in that effort, slashing .307/.356/.525 while earning a top ten finish in NL MVP voting and the second Silver Slugger award of his career. While this new-look Bellinger came with potential red flags regarding his quality of contact in 2023, MLBTR nonetheless projected him for a twelve-year, $264MM deal in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, the second-highest projected guarantee after Ohtani.

Since then, many of Bellinger’s potential suitors on the free agent market have gone in other directions. The Yankees landed a trio of left-handed hitting outfielders in Juan Soto, Trent Grisham, and Alex Verdugo on the trade market, seemingly leaving no room for Bellinger on their roster. Meanwhile, the Giants recently landed outfielder Jung Hoo Lee on a six-year, $113MM contract. While it’s certainly feasible that San Francisco could have the resources available to land Bellinger as well, between the club’s existing outfield logjam and need for pitching, it seems more likely that the club would pursue top arms like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, and Shota Imanaga than double up on talent in center field with a Bellinger signing.

That’s not to say that Bellinger’s market is completely devoid of suitors, of course. The Blue Jays haven’t been shy about their pursuit of a top-of-the-market lefty slugger this offseason, and Bellinger is the clear best player available to fill that niche with both Ohtani and Soto now off the board. Given that, it’s no surprise that Heyman suggests that Toronto is “expected to be a player” for Bellinger this offseason. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale takes things a step further, suggesting that the Blue Jays could be a “favorite” for the 28-year-old’s services this winter. Looking beyond Toronto, both Heyman and Nightengale also indicate that the incumbent Cubs could be a factor in Bellinger’s market this offseason while Nightengale also suggests the Padres as a potential suitor.

Any interest from Chicago or San Diego seemingly comes with caveats, however. The Padres are reportedly facing severe financial constrains and hope to duck under the luxury tax in 2024, and committing $200MM or more to Bellinger would eat away most of the savings the club procured by dealing Soto and Grisham to the Bronx earlier this month. Meanwhile, reports from Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic indicate that the Cubs could prefer to wait out the market and see if Bellinger “falls” to them on a more palatable deal than the outfielder’s current price tag. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have no such apparent financial restraints or reservations. Of course, it’s possible that another team in need of outfield help such as the Mariners could jump into the fray and change the outlook of Bellinger’s market as the offseason continues.

Latest On Cody Bellinger’s Market

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As the clear #2 position player available in this year’s free agent market, Cody Bellinger is a sensible fit for a handful of teams. The Yankees and Giants were the most common speculated suitors going into the offseason, and that buzz has continued in the first couple weeks.

Bellinger is on the Yankees’ radar as they look for one or two lefty-hitting outfielders. Meanwhile, San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has made clear the team is looking to upgrade its outfield defense, calling center field a priority. Each of Jon Heyman of the New York Post and Jesse Rogers of ESPN wrote yesterday that Bellinger is indeed on San Francisco’s radar.

While the links to both franchises are expected, it’s unclear how aggressively Bellinger’s incumbent team plans to pursue him. Heyman lists the Cubs alongside the Yankees and Giants as early favorites to land the two-time All-Star, while Rogers is more pessimistic, writing that the Cubs are unlikely to engage in a bidding war for the 28-year-old outfielder. Rogers unsurprisingly suggests that Chicago will be involved in the Shohei Ohtani pursuit, noting that some believe the Cubs are likelier to land the two-way star than they are to re-sign Bellinger. Ohtani is obviously the more desirable player, but is also likely to sign for at least double (quite likely more) the amount of guaranteed money.

At the same time, it’d be logical in some sense for the Cubs to allow Bellinger to move on. Top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong is viewed as the organization’s center fielder of the future, and he reached the majors late in 2023 after hitting .283/.365/.511 between the top two minor league levels. Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki are on multi-year commitments in the corner outfield. While Bellinger can play first base, much of his value is tied to his ability to play strong defense at the outfield’s most demanding position.

The left-handed hitter had a strong season at Wrigley Field. After his dismal 2021-22 numbers led to a non-tender with the Dodgers, Bellinger inked a $17.5MM guarantee with the Cubs. He hit .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases through 556 trips to the plate. Bellinger cut his strikeouts to a personal-low 15.6% clip, although his batted ball metrics figure to give some teams pause. His 31.4% hard contact percentage only ranked in the 10th percentile among qualified hitters.

Bellinger rejected a qualifying offer after declining his end of a mutual option for 2024. Were the Cubs to let him walk, they’d land a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round (roughly 75th overall). A signing team would have to forfeit draft and potentially international bonus space to add him.

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