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What Will The Orioles Outfield Look Like In 2025?

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The Orioles ran out the same three outfielders each Opening Day between 2021 and ’24: Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, and Austin Hays. And in each year from 2020-23, Mullins, Santander, and Hays were Baltimore’s three primary outfielders. This past season, however, Colton Cowser broke out with a phenomenal rookie campaign, cementing his position in the outfield at Camden Yards for years to come. Facing a logjam in the lineup, the Orioles dealt Hays to the Phillies ahead of the trade deadline, officially splitting up the Mullins/Santander/Hays triumvirate. Santander could be next to leave; after the conclusion of the World Series, he will become a free agent. Thus, for the first time in a long time, the Orioles’ outfield could look quite different on Opening Day 2025.

There is no doubt that Cowser will have a job in the Orioles’ outfield next season. Not only did he hit 24 home runs with a 120 wRC+ in 2024, but he did so while playing strong defense. The 24-year-old compiled 11 OAA and 3 DRS over 809 2/3 innings in left field, 310 innings in center, and 73 innings in right. He made just one error all year. Cowser is under team control through at least the 2029 season, and he will not be eligible for arbitration until at least 2027.

Mullins should be a lock for the 2025 outfield as well, although the Orioles will have to tender him a contract as he enters his final year of arbitration eligibility. Matt Swartz’s model estimates Mullins would earn approximately $8.7MM next year, a $2.375MM raise from his $6.325MM salary this season. That’s a bargain for a player like Mullins, even with his 2021 All-Star campaign getting smaller and smaller in the rearview mirror. He has been roughly league-average at the plate over the past two seasons  (102 wRC+) while providing plenty of value on the bases (51-for-60 in stolen base attempts) and playing a premium defensive position. Different metrics disagree about his talents in center field, but ultimately, the versions of WAR at both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference agree he has been a valuable contributor. From 2023-24, Mullins compiled 4.2 fWAR and 5.3 bWAR. There’s a chance the Orioles would consider moving Mullins to a corner and giving Cowser the center field job; including college and the minors, Cowser has more experience in center field than any other position. Mullins and his league-average bat would be less valuable in a corner spot, but a $8.7MM salary would still be a team-friendly price for his services.

As for the final spot in the outfield, plenty of fans would love to see Santander back next season (and for several more to come), but it’s unclear how intently the Orioles will pursue the All-Star slugger in free agency. They will surely make him the qualifying offer, and he just as will surely decline. He is likely seeking a multi-year deal worth at least $20MM per season. General manager Mile Elias is hoping to increase payroll this winter in his first full offseason working under new owner David Rubenstein, but it’s unclear how much money he’ll have to work with. More to the point, Elias might prfer to spend the majority of his resources improving a pitching staff that finished 14th in MLB in ERA and 10th in FanGraphs WAR rather than an offense that finished fourth in runs scored and third in wRC+. Santander will be a big loss for the offense, but ace Corbin Burnes, another impending free agent, will be an even bigger departure for Elias to address. With all that said, the Orioles might stick with their internal options to replace Santander in 2025.

Baltimore would love for 25-year-old Heston Kjerstad to step up and fill that role. The lefty batter put up ludicrous numbers in the minors this past season, batting .300 with a .998 OPS and 152 wRC+ in 56 games at Triple-A. His big league numbers (.745 OPS, 116 wRC+ in 39 games) weren’t bad, especially not for a rookie, but some of the underlying metrics suggest he’s due for regression (.301 xwOBA compared to a .327 wOBA), and his 28.9% strikeout rate was concerningly high for a hitter who wasn’t showing off plus power or plate discipline. Moreover, his outfield defense wasn’t particularly impressive in a small sample size (-1 DRS, -1 FRV). Kjerstad has the tools to be a terrific player, but he’ll to take a step forward at the plate if he’s going to provide above-average value as a defensively-limited corner outfielder.

Another option to play some corner outfield for the Orioles next year could be Coby Mayo, who is currently the team’s top prospect according to Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. Throughout his brief professional career, Mayo has mostly played third base. Aside from his strong arm, however, he has never graded out as a top-notch defender at the hot corner. So, with Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg already entrenched in the Orioles’ infield and Jackson Holliday not going anywhere, Mayo’s future might need to be somewhere else. He has experience playing first base as well, and that could be his long-term position. But considering his terrific throwing arm, it makes sense that he would give the outfield a try. To that point, Elias recently suggested right field could be an option for the 22-year-old, though he made it clear the organization still views him as an infielder, and primarily a first baseman, going forward (per Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball).

Two more internal options to keep in mind are prospects Dylan Beavers and Enrique Bradfield Jr. Beavers, 23, is the team’s No. 5 prospect according to FanGraphs, No. 6 according to MLB Pipeline, and No. 7 according to Baseball America. He hit well enough at Double-A in 2024 (15 HR, 118 wRC+ in 119 games) to earn a brief promotion to Triple-A at the end of the season. He’s also a plus runner with the potential to be a capable big league center fielder. Bradfield, 22, is a few months younger and a little further away from the majors; he moved up from High-A to Double-A this past August. However, most sources agree he is the slightly more promising prospect. FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline have him at No. 4, while Baseball America has him at No. 6. He boasts 80-grade speed and has the skills to be an elite defensive center fielder. As for his bat, he has little power to speak of, so he’ll need to prove he can maintain his impressive bat-to-ball skills against tougher competition. Neither Beavers nor Bradfield needs protection from the Rule 5 draft this offseason, and neither is a likely candidate to make the Opening Day roster out of camp. However, their relative proximity to the majors could be a reason why the Orioles avoid signing a free agent outfielder to a multi-year deal.

Finally, the Orioles will have to decide whether or not to pick up Ryan O’Hearn’s $8MM club option for 2025. O’Hearn is primarily a first baseman and DH, but he played 27 games in the outfield last season. The 31-year-old slashed .264/.334/.427 with 15 home runs and a 119 wRC+ in 2024, good for 1.7 fWAR. If he can repeat that performance next season, an $8MM salary would be more than fair, but with Kjerstad and Mayo in need of playing time, the Orioles might prefer to spend that $8MM elsewhere.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Orioles Select Daniel Johnson, Option Coby Mayo

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The Orioles announced that they have selected the contract of outfielder Daniel Johnson from Triple-A Norfolk.  In the corresponding move, infielder Coby Mayo was optioned to Triple-A, as was reported earlier today by Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner (X link).

Johnson signed a minor league deal with the O’s during the offseason, and has delivered a solid .259/.320/.448 slash line and 21 homers over an even 500 plate appearances for Norfolk.  This production almost exactly matches his career numbers (.255/.324/.446) over 1542 Triple-A PA and even his minor league career as as whole, covering eight seasons in five different organizations.  Johnson’s only previous Major League experience consisted over 35 games with Cleveland over the 2020-21 seasons, and he has a .582 OPS over 94 PA in the bigs.

In adding Johnson, the Orioles add a bit of outfield depth amidst some uncertainty over Cedric Mullins’ status.  Mullins collided with teammate Austin Slater during Thursday’s game and then didn’t play yesterday due to neck discomfort.  Johnson has almost evenly split his time in the minors as a center fielder and right fielder, so he could step onto the O’s bench to help fill in should Mullins have to miss any more time.

Mayo has hit only .098/.196/.098 over his first 46 plate appearances in the majors, with four singles and four walks.  Almost half (22) of those plate appearances have resulted in strikeouts, and Mayo has looked overmatched by MLB pitching to date.  In the field, Mayo has mostly played third base to help fill the void left behind by the injured Jordan Westburg and Ramon Urias, but he has also gotten a few looks at first base since Ryan Mountcastle has also been on the IL.

One of baseball’s top prospects, Mayo has now been twice optioned back to Triple-A since his contract was initially selected to the big league roster on August 2.  Baltimore initially sent Mayo down to the minors on August 15 before bringing him back on September 1 once rosters expanded from 26 to 28 players.  This second visit to the Show didn’t lead to any better results for Mayo, so he’ll return to Norfolk for the tail end of the minor league campaign.

As always, 46 plate appearances is far too small a sample size to cast judgement on Mayo’s future, and countless MLB stars have struggled in their first tastes of big league action.  While obviously the Orioles would’ve loved an early breakout, Mayo remains on the team’s radar for a larger role in 2025.  In the interim, with Baltimore heading for the playoffs and still gunning for the AL East title, optioning an infielder in Mayo could hint that Urias or Westburg are nearing a return from the injured list.

Orioles Recall Coby Mayo, Activate Zach Eflin

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11:48am: The Orioles have officially announced the return of both Eflin and Mayo, and have placed Urias on the 10-day IL with a right ankle sprain. Additionally, the club selected the contract of catcher David Banuelos from Triple-A and designated outfielder Forrest Wall for assignment to make room for him on the 40-man roster. Banuelos has spent most of the season at Triple-A after being outrighted to the minors back in April, while Wall was claimed off waivers from the Marlins just a few days ago but will now return to the waiver wire.

7:38am: Rosters expand from 26 to 28 today, meaning every team in baseball will get to call up an additional pitcher and an additional hitter as they begin play today. There’s little mystery about who those players will be for the Orioles, as manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including Brandon Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun) that right-hander Zach Eflin will be activated from the 15-day Injured List to start today’s game against the Rockies this afternoon. Earlier in the day, Weyrich reported that top infield prospect Coby Mayo was poised to join the club as their additional hitter when rosters expanded today.

It will be the second taste of big league action for Mayo, 22. The youngster got his feet wet in the majors earlier this month with a brief cup of coffee that lasted only seven games and 20 at-bats, and he hit just .059 without an extra-base hit in that brief stint at the big league level before being optioned back to the minors. His sensational .293/.369/.574 slash line at the Triple-A level this season has left him with nothing more to prove in the minor leagues, however, so Mayo now figures to get a more extended opportunity to prove himself in the big leagues as fellow rookie Jackson Holliday has. Holliday struggled badly in his first ten games in the majors back in April but has looked better since returning to the majors the day after the trade deadline with a .218/.275/.426 slash line that’s good for a roughly league average 98 wRC+.

As for Eflin, the veteran right-hander came over to Baltimore in a trade with the Rays prior to the deadline. After posting strong enough numbers last year to finish sixth in the AL Cy Young award race, the right-hander took a step back with Tampa last year, posting a pedestrian 4.09 ERA in 19 starts despite a solid 3.68 FIP. Things changed when Eflin got to Baltimore, however, and in four starts after the swap the righty looked nothing short of excellent with a 2.13 ERA and a 24.5% strikeout rate in 25 2/3 innings of work. Eflin has been sidelined in recent weeks by a bout of shoulder inflammation, but it seems now he’s healthy enough to return to action. The Orioles are surely counting on the righty to help keep afloat a beleaguered rotation that also lost Grayson Rodriguez to the injured list in the month of August.

While Mayo and Eflin were both expected to be the club’s extra players following roster expansion, it’s possible after last night’s game that two more spots on the roster could open up today as both right-hander Dean Kremer and infielder Ramon Urias exited due to injuries yesterday. Kremer was struck by a comebacker in the fourth inning yesterday and exited with a right forearm contusion, with Manny Randhawa of MLB.com among those to relay the news that Kremer’s initial x-rays came back negative. As noted by Danielle Allentuck of the Baltimore Banner, both he and Urias, who who suffered a sprained ankle after also narrowly avoiding injury when struck in the face by a pitch earlier in the game, figure to be evaluated further today to see if either player will require a stint on the injured list.

The planned returns of Eflin and Mayo to the roster coincidentally figure to cover for the losses of Kremer in the rotation and Urias at third base in the short term, but if either player requires a stint on the injured list the team will likely need to deep into its depth in order to fill out the roster. Deadline addition Trevor Rogers is on the 40-man roster and could return to the rotation is Kremer misses time, though he was optioned after posting a disastrous 7.11 ERA in his first four starts as an Oriole. On the positional side, meanwhile, non-roster veterans like J.D. Davis or Jean Segura could provide infield depth for the club if Urias ends up going on the shelf.

Orioles Option Coby Mayo

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Top Orioles prospect Coby Mayo will see his initial taste of the majors draw to a close after just seven games and 20 plate appearances. Baltimore announced Thursday that Mayo has been optioned back to Triple-A Norfolk. Infielder Livan Soto was recalled from Norfolk in his place.

Mayo, regarded as one of the top prospects not just in Baltimore’s system but in all of baseball, was called up shortly after third baseman Jordan Westburg suffered a fractured hand when he was hit by a pitch. Expectations were high, considering his prominent placement on national prospect rankings and his gaudy .301/.375/.586 batting line through 341 Triple-A plate appearances during just his age-22 season. However, like fellow top prospect Jackson Holliday before him, Mayo stumbled out of the gate with a strikeout-laden showing and was sent back to Triple-A in fairly short order. He went just 1-for-17 with three walks and 10 strikeouts in those 20 trips to the plate.

There’s no sense in making any long-term judgment on Mayo based on a tough week in his first glimpse of the majors. Many detractors were quick to write Holliday off after similar early struggles, and he’s returned from Norfolk with a .255/.314/.596 line and five home runs in 51 plate appearances. Twenty ugly plate appearances don’t say anything about Mayo’s long-term future other than that he might yet need a bit more work in the upper minors before he gets his next big league audition.

In sending Mayo back to Norfolk, the O’s seem to be committing to Ramon Urias as the primary third baseman in Westburg’s absence — although Soto could also see some run at the hot corner. The Orioles could also retain Mayo’s prospect/rookie status for the 2025 season as well, which would put them in position to potentially land a draft pick if he finishes well enough in ’25 Rookie of the Year voting. So long as Mayo finishes with fewer than 130 at-bats and fewer than 45 days on the active roster, he’ll still be eligible for that benefit. If that were a primary concern for them, they likely wouldn’t have brought Mayo to the big leagues in the first place, but retaining that possibility is now surely seen as an ancillary benefit of today’s move.

Urias, 30, seems likeliest to garner additional playing time. He drew sensational defensive marks at third base just two seasons ago, but both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average have soured on his glovework at the position. At the plate, Urias has turned in a .236/.306/.372 slash at the plate this season, sitting about 5% worse than league-average overall (by measure of wRC+).

As for Soto, he’s hit extremely well in a small sample of 74 plate appearances, batting .358/.397/.507 dating back to 2022. It should be emphasized that his line is propped up by a gargantuan .451 average on balls in play that he won’t sustain, and Soto has a much more modest track record in Triple-A, where he’s hit .267/.364/.386 in 709 plate appearances as a utilityman.

Orioles Promote Coby Mayo

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Aug. 2: The O’s formally announced Mayo’s promotion. Infielder Livan Soto was optioned to Norfolk to open a spot on the active roster. Baltimore’s 40-man roster is now at capacity.

Aug. 1: Top prospect Coby Mayo is joining the Orioles, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (X link). The 22-year-old will be making his MLB debut. Mayo is not yet on the 40-man roster but the O’s have an opening, so they’ll only need to make a corresponding active roster transaction.

Baltimore took Mayo out of high school in the fourth round of the truncated 2020 draft. He signed for an above slot $1.75MM bonus and has ripped through minor league pitching at every level. The 6’5″, 230-pound corner infielder had pushed his way towards the top of a loaded O’s system by the start of the 2022 campaign. He had good but not elite numbers as a 20-year-old between High-A and Double-A that season.

A monster showing in the upper minors last year vaulted Mayo to the top of the overall league prospect rankings. He hit .307/.424/.603 with 17 homers in 78 games for Double-A Bowie. The O’s bumped him to Triple-A Norfolk late last season. Mayo responded with an excellent .267/.393/.512 slash across 62 contests.

Mayo entered the year as a top 30 minor league talent in the eyes of most evaluators. He has done all he can to reinforce that acclaim with another excellent year in Norfolk. Mayo has popped 20 homers over 335 plate appearances. He’s hitting .294/.370/.581 with a strong 10.1% walk rate. While his 24.5% strikeout percentage is a bit higher than average, it’s not a major concern for one of the best power-hitting prospects in the league.

The righty-hitting Mayo is tied for fourth in the International League in home runs. Among 83 hitters with 300+ plate appearances, he leads the league in slugging percentage. Mayo is 10th among that group in average and 25th in on-base percentage despite being one of the league’s youngest hitters.

Mayo ranks as the sport’s #12 prospect at Baseball America and FanGraphs. Keith Law of the Athletic ranked Mayo 18th on his recent update of the sport’s top 60 prospects. All three outlets have him as either the #2 or #3 player in the Baltimore system. He’s behind Jackson Holliday and alongside catcher Samuel Basallo at the top of an organization that is still loaded with high-end young talent.

BA and FanGraphs each credit Mayo with 70-grade power (plus-plus) on the 20-80 scouting scale. FanGraphs writes that Mayo could be susceptible to strikeouts early in his MLB career, but evaluators generally feel he shouldn’t have any problem getting to his impact power while drawing plenty of walks.

Mayo’s defense is more of a question. He has played exclusively on the corner infield in his minor league career. The vast majority of that experience has come at third base. Most scouting reports peg him as a fringe-average defender there despite excellent arm strength. FanGraphs’ report suggests Mayo may be best suited moving off the position to right field, but the O’s have not given him any outfield work in the minors.

He’ll break into the majors as a third baseman. Baltimore lost Jordan Westburg to a broken hand yesterday. The O’s have yet to provide a clear timeline on the All-Star’s return, yet he’s certainly in for a lengthy absence. Baltimore played Ramón Urías at the hot corner today. With Urías hitting a league average .244/.318/.381 in 195 plate appearances, they’ll turn to Mayo in the hope that the youngster provides above-average offense right out of the gate.

That’s no guarantee for any prospect, as Holliday’s struggles after his first big league call demonstrated early in the season. Yet there’s nothing more for Mayo to prove in the minors, as he now owns a .283/.380/.552 slash with 36 doubles and 32 homers in 602 career Triple-A plate appearances (the equivalent of one full season). Mayo would probably have gotten a look by now if he were in most other organizations. The O’s have such an impressive collection of infielders that they could afford to wait for him to comprehensively dominate minor league pitching.

Baltimore fans can dream on a future infield comprising Mayo, Holliday, Gunnar Henderson and Westburg from right to left. For now, Mayo will stick at the hot corner with Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn continuing to share first base and designated hitter. Urías should kick into a utility role which could bump recent trade pickup Livan Soto to Norfolk.

Barring a herculean start to his MLB career that earns him a top two finish in Rookie of the Year balloting, Mayo will not get a full service year this season. The O’s control him through at least the 2030 campaign; he won’t reach arbitration until the 2027-28 offseason. If Baltimore options him back to the minors at any point, that could delay his path to arbitration and free agency.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Orioles GM Mike Elias Discusses Trade Deadline, Holliday, Mayo

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Orioles GM Mike Elias spoke to reporters prior to this afternoon’s game against the Yankees and touched on a number of topics, including the club’s needs and goals ahead of the trade deadline as well as the status of two of the club’s key, upper-level prospects: infielders Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo. As noted by Roch Kubatko of MASN, Elias suggested to reporters that both Holliday and Mayo figure to factor into the club’s plans as “big contributors” in the second half this year.

Holliday, of course, is the consensus top prospect in the entire sport and got a brief cup of coffee at the big league level earlier this year. The 20-year-old looked overmatched in the majors at the time, slashing just .059/.111/.059 in 36 trips to the plate across ten games. He then returned to the Triple-A level and hit .252/.418/.429 over his next 40 games. That’s a solid overall slash line but a far cry from what Holliday had done in the past, especially looking at his production in early June, when he hit just .212 with a 26.7% strikeout rate and a .394 slugging percentage in ten games before being placed on the minor league IL due to what the club referred to at the time as a “barking” shoulder.

The young phenom returned to action after two weeks on the shelf and has looked more like himself at the plate, slashing a solid .250/.464/.425 in 12 games since returning. He’s been limited to appearances at DH since returning, but that restriction figures to come off soon as Elias told reporters (including Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball) this afternoon that Holliday will resume playing the field after the All-Star break. That should leave Holliday in line to take over a regular role at second base for the Orioles at some point in the second half.

Baltimore has been relying on a combination of Ramon Urias and Jorge Mateo to fill out the infield mix, with Jordan Westburg playing second base on days Urias is in the lineup and third base on days Mateo is in the lineup. Holliday’s arrival would likely open the door for Westburg to settle in at the hot corner on a more permanent basis while shifting both Urias and Mateo into bench roles. Of course, that infield picture figures to get complicated further by the introduction of Mayo, who Elias spoke of glowingly in conversation with reporters (including MLB.com’s Jake Rill) this afternoon.

“He is in an exceptionally good spot. We talk about him all the time,” Elias said of Mayo, according to Rill. “He’s very close. He’s going to help us this year. It’s just going to be about the right moment and the right opportunity and the right runway for something like that.“

Mayo’s readiness for a new challenge is all but undeniable at this point. The 22-year-old infielder posted a 127 wRC+ in 62 games at the Triple-A level last season and has followed it up with even stronger numbers this year. In 284 trips to the plate at Triple-A this season, Mayo has slashed an incredible .297/.380/.606 with a wRC+ of 147. While his 24.6% strikeout rate is perhaps a smidgen higher than is ideal, he more than makes up for the swing-and-miss with a 10.4% walk rate and a phenomenal 19 homers in just 63 games.

Talented as the slugger is, however, his roster fit in Baltimore is a difficult one to sort out. Mayo’s native position is third base, and that’s where he’s received almost all of his reps throughout the minors. With that being said, his defense has drawn mixed reviews and with Westburg likely to lock down the hot corner on an everyday basis upon Holliday’s ascension to the majors, that would leave Mayo on the outside looking in when it comes to reps at his natural position. Mayo has also received occasional time at first base, however, and it’s fairly easy to imagine him factoring in to the club’s first base/DH mix. Even that part of the roster is overcrowded, however, as Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn are currently splitting time there while Adley Rutschman also spends time at DH when not behind the plate and the club’s five outfield bats- Austin Hays, Anthony Santander, Colton Cowser, Cedric Mullins, and Heston Kjerstad– vie for what’s left of the playing time available at DH when not patrolling the grass.

The Orioles’ overflow of positional talent could, of course, be lessened somewhat by trades in the run-up to the deadline on July 30. Elias told reporters (including Dubroff) that while the front office is largely focused on the draft, which will run from tomorrow until Tuesday, the club will turn its attention toward the upcoming deadline afterwards and will have the flexibility to add payroll as they pursue additions. Kubatko adds that while Elias did suggest that payroll could increase under the club’s new ownership group, that doesn’t mean it’s “definitely” going to happen this summer and that the front office plans to be “disciplined” in their spending going forward, even as the purse strings loosen relative to where payroll had been under the Angelos family. Of course, even just reaching the vicinity of peak payroll under the Angelos family, which Cot’s Baseball Contracts lists as just under $165MM back in 2017, would offer the Orioles plenty of room to work with this summer and headed into the offseason.

In terms of specific needs, Elias acknowledged (as relayed by Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun) that adding a starting pitcher with multiple years of team control would be a “big bonus” for the club as they stare down an offseason where they’ll need to fill out an Opening Day rotation where only Grayson Rodriguez, rookie Cade Povich, and struggling righty Dean Kremer can be reliably penciled in thanks to the pending free agencies of John Means and Corbin Burnes as well as surgeries underwent by Means, Kyle Bradish, and Tyler Wells that figure to sideline them into 2025. Attractive as the addition of a controllable arm would be, however, Weyrich goes on to note that Elias made clear the club will be “approaching this deadline with 2024 front and center.”

A look at MLBTR’s Top 50 Trade Candidates for the summer will reveal a list littered with potential options that feature multiple years of control, ranging from breakout White Sox star Garrett Crochet and veteran righty Erick Fedde, to Rockies hurlers Cal Quantrill and Austin Gomber, and even Rays starters Zach Eflin and Zack Littell. While an intradivision trade with Tampa seems somewhat unlikely, the Orioles certainly have the farm system to acquire virtually any player they set their sights on, even without parting ways with Holliday or Mayo.

That said, it’s certainly feasible that the club could look to acquire shorter-term pitching options as well. Right-hander Jack Flaherty is the top rental pitcher on the market this summer and seems like a less than ideal fit after he struggled to a 6.75 ERA down the stretch with Baltimore last year, but hurlers like Frankie Montas, Michael Lorenzen, and Trevor Williams could also be available this summer as pure rentals depending on the competitiveness of their respective clubs in the run-up to the deadline. It would also hardly be a surprise to see the Orioles attempt to beef up a bullpen mix that recently lost left-hander Danny Coulombe to surgery that will keep him out of action until at least September.

AL East Notes: Mata, Mayo, Gausman

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The Red Sox are approaching a crossroads with regards to right-hander Bryan Mata. As noted by Chris Cotillo of MassLive, Mata has begun a rehab assignment as he works his way back from a hamstring strain that he suffered back in February. The 25-year-old was once one of the club’s top pitching prospects but has struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness over the past two seasons, pitching to a combined 6.39 ERA in 31 innings of work across all levels of he minors since the start of the 2023 campaign.

While the rehab assignment for a struggling pitcher who has yet to make his big league debut wouldn’t typically be especially notable, Mata’s rehab assignment is particularly worth noting because the righty is out of options. Given that, the Red Sox will have to make a decision regarding his future in the organization once his rehab clock runs out on June 12. If the club isn’t willing to offer Mata a spot on the active roster, they’ll need to designate him for assignment and risk losing him on waivers to get the chance to outright the young righty to the minor leagues. MassLive’s Sean McAdam reported back in February that the Red Sox expect Mata to be claimed if he’s exposed to waivers, though it’s possible that could change depending on how he looks throughout his rehab assignment.

Losing Mata on waivers would be a frustrating outcome for the Red Sox given the tantalizing talent he flashed prior to injuries sidetracking his career. In his most recent healthy season, the right-hander pitched to a strong 2.49 ERA in 83 innings while advancing through four levels of the minor leagues, including a 1.85 ERA in 10 appearances at the Double-A level and a 3.47 ERA in five starts at Triple-A. That season, Mata struck out a whopping 30.3% of batters faced, albeit with an elevated 13.3% walk rate. If the righty can get anything close to those huge strikeout numbers during his rehab assignment, it could certainly make sense for the club to offer him a role in the bullpen given the number of optionable relief arms they’re currently utilizing.

More from around the AL East…

  • Orioles fans received some tough news from down on the farm on Friday, when the club announced that top third base prospect Coby Mayo suffered a fractured rib and has been placed on the minor league injured list. The Orioles indicated that Mayo will be out for “several weeks” due to the injury. It’s a frustrating setback for the 22-year-old, who is a consensus top-30 prospect in the sport and has impressed with a .291/.359/.605 slash line in 42 games at the Triple-A level this year. It was certainly plausible that the club could turn to Mayo as a starting option at some point in the near future given his fantastic play and the struggles of fellow top prospect Jackson Holliday, though this injury surely represents a setback for Mayo’s timeline to be called up to the majors. Jorge Mateo is currently rounding out the club’s starting infield mix in the majors alongside youngsters Jordan Westburg and Gunnar Henderson.
  • Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman has been off to a rough start this season, with a 4.89 ERA through nine starts despite a decent 3.50 FIP. Gausman’s struggles this season are particularly surprising given his utter dominance in recent years; from 2021 to ’23, the right-hander pitched to a 3.10 ERA (132 ERA+) with an even better 2.79 FIP. Gausman spoke to reporters (including MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson) yesterday about his frustrating results this season and described the campaign as an “uphill battle” to this point before suggesting that he “probably should have gone on the IL” at the start of the season. The righty battled shoulder soreness throughout Spring Training but nonetheless opened the season in the club’s rotation amid injuries sidelining much of the club’s starting pitching depth, including Alek Manoah and Yariel Rodriguez.

Orioles Reassign Jackson Holliday, Option Heston Kjerstad And Kyle Stowers

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The Orioles announced that they have optioned outfielders Heston Kjerstad and Kyle Stowers while catcher David Bañuelos, infielders Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo, infielder/outfielder Connor Norby and right-hander Albert Suárez have been reassigned to minor league camp.

Holliday not making the club registers as a surprise, despite his youth. He just turned 20 in December but has seemed to be on a beeline for the majors. Last year, he went through Single-A, High-A, Double-A and Triple-A, succeeding at every stop. He came into this year as the consensus top prospect in the league and was invited to big league camp. He could hardly have done much more to earn a spot, as he slashed .311/.354/.600 here in the spring, but it seems that wasn’t enough for the Orioles to add him to their major league roster.

Instead, he’ll go to Triple-A and await his debut. The move could have repercussions for his path to free agency and arbitration, depending on how long it takes him to get the call. A major league season lasts 187 days but it takes 172 for a player to earn a full year of service time. That means Holliday could still get to the one-year mark if he’s called up in the first couple of weeks of the season, though the O’s may be motivated to not let that happen. If he can’t get to one year in 2024, then he won’t be on track to get to six years and free agency by the end of 2029.

The latest collective bargaining agreement contains measures to incentivize teams to add top prospects to their roster and discourage service time manipulation. A player can still earn a full year of service time, even if not called up early enough, if he finishes in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting. Additionally, teams that carry a prospect on the roster long enough to get a traditional full year of service time can net themselves an extra draft pick if the player wins Rookie of the Year or finishes top three in the voting for Most Valuable Player or Cy Young during their pre-arbitration seasons. To qualify for these measures, a player has to be on at least two of the top 100 prospect lists at MLB.com, ESPN or Baseball America.

As mentioned, Holliday is the consensus number one prospect in the league and all of that is therefore in play. The Orioles already saw this play out in 2022 when Adley Rutschman was injured for the start of the year and was slated to come up shy of one year of service, but finished second in ROY voting and earned that full year anyway.

It seems neither the incentives nor the disincentives swayed the Orioles much and they will keep Holliday in the minors for now. That seemingly leaves Gunnar Henderson as the everyday shortstop while Jordan Westburg and Ramón Urías handle second and third base. That could perhaps leave a bench spot open for Kolten Wong, who triggered his opt-out today, giving the O’s 48 hours to decide about him.

It’s also somewhat surprising that Kjerstad and Stowers got sent down, but perhaps less so. The O’s have a full outfield consisting of Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays and Anthony Santander, with Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn sharing first base and the designated hitter spot. Colton Cowser is also around and should be in the mix.

Stowers has hit just .207/.267/.331 in the majors but has much better numbers in the minors and is having a great spring. He has seven homers in Grapefruit League play and a line of .256/.267/.744, but he’ll have to serve as depth for the time being. Kjerstad didn’t show as much this spring, hitting just .265/.294/.286, but he made a nice debut in the bigs late last year. Regardless, he will also have to wait for his next major league opportunity.

The Orioles figure to have one of the most talented Triple-A teams this year, at least to begin the season. As injuries crop up throughout the year, as they do for all clubs, they are the one best positioned to find suitable replacements waiting in the wings.

Big Hype Prospects: Gasser, Mead, Vientos, Frelick, Horton

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Big Hype Prospects returns with a peek at the upper minors. Let’s get down to business…

Five Big Hype Prospects

Robert Gasser, 24, SP, MIL (AAA)
90.1 IP, 10.86 K/9, 3.49 BB/9, 4.18 ERA

One of the best pitching prospects remaining in Triple-A, Gasser could find his way into the Milwaukee rotation by the end of the season – if not sooner. Presently, the weak links are Colin Rea and Adrian Houser. Brandon Woodruff is nearing a return to oust one of those swingmen. Gasser is a southpaw with unusual arm action, but the Brewers pitching development staff specializes in the bizarre and grotesque, so Gasser could scarcely be in a better system for his particular brand of pitching. While he doesn’t have visually impressive stuff, the whole repertoire plays up due to plus command. Gasser might have some issues with right-handed batters.

Curtis Mead, 22, 3B, TBR (AAA)
173 PA, 3 HR, 2 SB, .311/.376/.497

The 2023 campaign hasn’t gone Mead’s way. Between missed time and a slow start, the powerful corner-man has only three home runs. Lately, he’s caught fire to the tune of .431/.493/.677 over his last 75 plate appearances, with nine walks and four strikeouts. While he has only one home run during this hot streak, Mead also swatted nine doubles and two triples. Over-the-fence results will come before long. In the meantime, Mead is swinging a big stick with the sorts of exit velocities associated with MLB regulars (89.4-mph average, 109.5-mph max).

Mark Vientos, 1B/3B, 23, NYM (MLB)
(AAA) 264 PA, 16 HR, .307/.386/.614

The Mets recently recalled Vientos despite mediocre performance on the farm, as Vientos has hit .264/.316/.472 (90 wRC+) in 57 Triple-A plate appearances since the start of July. He thrived in the minors earlier in the season and certainly deserves an extended look with the retooling Mets. Vientos presents a complicated evaluation, as his positives include plus discipline, premium raw power, and exciting in-game exit velocities. However, scouts point out issues with his swing which could prove exploitable. In 99 career MLB plate appearances, Vientos is batting just .189/.253/.267 despite excellent exit velocities (93.3-mph average, 114.9-mph max). Those are basically the exact same EVs as Juan Soto and MJ Melendez. The Melendez comp is interesting, as the young Royals slugger is having a rough season due partly to swing-and-miss issues and partly to an expansive home venue. Vientos faces similar challenges with his swing and ballpark.

Sal Frelick, OF, 23, MIL (MLB)
(AAA) 183 PA, 2 HR, 8 SB, .237/.333/.342

Recently promoted to Milwaukee, it is hoped Frelick can become a top-of-the-lineup sparkplug. He’s known for discipline and a high rate of contact. He’s also not a particularly impactful hitter. Frelick connects with the same sort of oomph as Whit Merrifield and Steven Kwan. In fact, Kwan isn’t a bad comp – they’re both 5’9’’ left-handed hitting center fielders who fit better defensively in a corner. Frelick has a better chance to stick in center while at the plate, Kwan has superior feel for contact. The end result might wind up in the same neighborhood – a no-doubt Major League starter who nonetheless fits awkwardly within the current roster-design meta.

Cade Horton, 21, SP, CHC (A+)
43 IP, 12.56 K/9, 2.51 BB/9, 4.19 ERA

Horton hype season is in full swing. One of the fastest-rising pitching prospects per list-makers, Horton features a typical repertoire with mid-90s heat, multiple breaking balls, and a usable platoon changeup. The Cubs org is well-regarded when it comes to pitch design, a feature Horton could exploit as he moves up the ladder. He has enough feel for command to move quickly once the kid gloves are off. Presently, said gloves are on due to recovery from UCL replacement. He usually takes a week or more between starts of 15 to 20 batters. His last two outings have been among his shakiest of the season.

Three More

Coby Mayo, BAL (21): One of the nice things about Triple-A is access to minor league exit velocities. Mayo may not be hitting well through his first 36 plate appearances in Norfolk, but he has produced encouraging EVs – 90.6-mph average and 111.8-mph max. He’s currently batting .219/.278/.375 with a 36.1 percent strikeout rate.

Colt Keith, DET (21): Another recent promotee to Triple-A, Keith is hitting a modest .274/.347/.403 in 72 plate appearances. His EVs – 88.5-mph average and 108.9-mph max – are in line with figures from last season. I was hoping to see some obvious growth in this respect. His defensive limitations put a lot of pressure on the bat. We’ll see if the coming weeks bring harder contact.

Evan Carter, TEX (20): Despite success in Double-A, Carter has yet to receive a promotion. He’s batting .298/.415/.462 in 316 plate appearances. These stats match the scouting report. He has a superb eye and a solid feel for contact. The quality of that contact is…fine. It’s fine. Really. Given his current prospect pedigree, I’d really like to see better than “fine.”

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: Salas, Merrill, Yorke, Hence, Mayo

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We missed a week while I was on the injured list (back spasms sustained while diving back to first base). There’s much for us to cover. Let’s start with some high-profile Padres. While the draft is tempting, let’s look in on those guys as they sign.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Ethan Salas, 17, C, SDP (A)
139 PA, 6 HR, 5 SB, .259/.381/.500

When we adjourned two weeks ago, Salas was batting .208/.340/.286 in 94 plate appearances. An 82 wRC+ isn’t anything to sniff at when we’re talking about a guy who’s 17-and-one-month old playing in full-season ball. Over the last two weeks, Salas hit .371/.467/.971. Including a HBP, he has as many free passes as strikeouts during the span. Of his 13 hits, he bopped five homers, four doubles, and a triple. That adds up to a 240 wRC+ for the hot streak and a 133 wRC+ on the season. If he keeps this up for long, he’ll find himself playing against High-A competition before the season ends. He’s “on pace” to debut as a teenager – a feat he can accomplish as long as he reaches the Majors before June 1, 2026.

Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SDP (A+)
300 PA, 10 HR, 10 SB, .280/.318/.444

Salas’ future teammate had to grind through a rough April before turning a corner. The Midwest League is a difficult hitting environment. His first month of play consisted of a .188/.247/.338 performance. In the three months since then, he’s hit .317/.348/.487 while making steady improvements. Lately, he’s found a power stroke. Since June 14, he’s hit six of his 10 home runs. Merrill isn’t expected to be much of a power hitter. His carrying trait is an advanced feel for contact. He rarely meets a pitch with which he can’t connect. His discipline lags a bit, though it’s not as if he’s Javy Baez. An unsubstantiated theory of mine is that his early-season slump was the result of contacting too many pitches outside of the zone. The theory fits what data I have available, though I haven’t discussed it with anybody who would actually know.

Nick Yorke, 2B, 21, BOS (AA)
316 PA, 9 HR, 6 SB, .275/.361/.453

Folks weren’t sure what to make of Yorke’s forgettable 2022 campaign. The industry had a little chuckle when the Red Sox “reached” for Yorke in the first round of the 2020 draft. After a superb 2021 season, everyone adjusted expectations. Then 2022 happened. Some evaluators stuck with their updated outlook and blamed injuries. Others pointed to his subpar defense and wrote him off.

Yorke has rebounded this season – perhaps not enough to make up for his defensive shortcomings. His current 122 wRC+ depends upon a .353 BABIP. He also has 13.0 percent swinging strike and 25.0 percent strikeout rates. Historically, prospects with similar statistical performances have been prone to stalling out in the Quad-A bucket. For now, we should view Yorke’s rebound as a positive development. Perhaps more distance from his injury-riddled 2022 will lead to improvements in his quality or rate of contact.

Tink Hence, 20, SP, STL (AA)
(A+) 41.2 IP, 9.94 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 2.81 ERA

Hence received a promotion to Double-A at the beginning of July. He also picked up a hold in the Futures Game. The pitching-needy Cardinals surely hope Hence can remain in the rotation. Alas, though he doesn’t walk many hitters, he’s not known for sharp command. His breaking ball is a weapon. It’s expected he should join the many pitchers who have mastered manipulating breaking ball spin for different effects. He doesn’t have a consistent changeup. Taken with the errant fastball command and history of brief outings, the relief risk is palpable. That said, Hence has yet to meet a challenge he hasn’t mastered. His Double-A debut was the first appearance of his career in which he faced more than 20 batters (22).

Coby Mayo, 21, 3B, BAL (AA)
347 PA, 17 HR, 4 SB, .307/.424/.603

With a 176 wRC+ on the season, Mayo is one of the top qualified hitters in the minors. He’ll play his next game in Triple-A, ending a nearly 500-plate appearance stint in Double-A. Mayo has traits grounded in the 2019 juiced ball era. He’s a pull-oriented slugger who generates plenty of loft. As a right-handed hitter, he’s not an ideal fit for Camden Yards. However, his power is such that he could overcome the home field limitations. It will be interesting to see if Mayo can continue to run elevated BABIPs into the Majors as this is a hitting profile typically associated with low BABIPs. Hypothetically, if a franchise-altering talent is made available at the trade deadline, Mayo would go a long way toward securing a deal. They’ll eventually have to trade somebody they like.

Three More

Johan Rojas, PHI (22): The Phillies are angling to get Kyle Schwarber into the DH slot. The plan would involve Cristian Pache in center and Brandon Marsh in left. If Pache doesn’t work out, Rojas has a similar reputation as a superlative defender who might hit enough to create a lot of value. In 354 Double-A plate appearances, Rojas is batting .306/.361/.484 with nine homers and 30 steals. He’s on the 40-man roster.

River Ryan, LAD (24): The latest pitcher to pop in the Dodgers system, Ryan features a promising four-pitch repertoire. In the month of June, he tossed two five-inning no-hitters. His command hasn’t been particularly sharp. Even across those two no-nos, Ryan issued four walks and hit three batters. It’s thought he’ll eventually develop better command. If not, he has a relief floor.

Ignacio Alvarez, ATL (20): A ripped shortstop who recently turned 20, Alvarez evokes Yandy Diaz right down to the comical biceps, low-angle contact, discipline, and rare whiffs. The comparison is hard to avoid. He might just be the next Brave to skip the line to the Majors. He generally keeps the ball on the ground with an all-fields approach. He’s expected to eventually move to third base, though he remains passable at shortstop for now.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

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