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Clayton Kershaw

Dodgers To Designate Ricky Vanasco For Assignment

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The Dodgers are going to designate right-hander Ricky Vanasco for assignment, reports Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic on X. That move will open a 40-man roster spot for left-hander Clayton Kershaw, who will be coming off the 60-day injured list this week.

Vanasco, 25, has spent most of the season on optional assignment. He has only thrown two innings at the major league level this year, which were the first two innings of his big league career. He has tossed 23 1/3 innings over 24 Triple-A appearances, allowing 3.47 earned runs per nine. His 24.3% strikeout rate is strong but he has also given out free passes at a huge 18.9% rate. If it weren’t for a 78.5% strand rate, more runs would have crossed the plate, which is why his 5.51 FIP is more than two runs higher than his ERA.

Those control issues undoubtedly contributed to nudging him off the Dodgers’ roster and the club will now have a week to either trade him or pass him through waivers. Once a notable prospect in the Rangers’ system, health issues held him back in recent years. He underwent Tommy John surgery in September of 2020 and missed the entire 2021 season. Despite missing that entire campaign, the Rangers evidently were worried some other club would take him in that year’s Rule 5 draft, so they gave him a 40-man spot.

He showed some rust in his first year back from the surgery layoff, posting a 4.68 ERA in 92 1/3 minor league innings. His 28.9% strikeout rate was strong but he gave out free passes to 12.7% of batters faced. He then required knee surgery in March of last year and missed the start of that season. The Rangers designated him for assignment in May and he was flipped to the Dodgers a few days later.

His stint with his new club went very well, even though he was outrighted off the 40-man roster, as he tossed 30 innings at various levels with a 1.20 ERA and 35% strikeout rate. Perhaps most importantly, he dropped his walk rate down to 8.1%. The Dodgers re-signed him to a major league deal in November but, as mentioned, his control issues have come back this year.

Perhaps some club will be intrigued based on his former prospect status and his ability to strike out minor league hitters. He is in his final option season and can be sent down to the farm for the remainder of this year, though he will be out of options next year.

Dodgers To Reinstate Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow

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The Dodgers have been scrambling to fill their rotation lately but will get a couple of big reinforcements back in the coming days. Manager Dave Roberts tells reporters that right-hander Tyler Glasnow and left-hander Clayton Kershaw will each come off the injured list to start on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Kershaw is on the 60-day IL and will need a 40-man roster spot to be opened prior to taking the ball. Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times was among those to relay the news on X.

It’s a pretty big moment for Kershaw, who is coming back from the most significant absence of his career. The southpaw went under the knife in November to repair the gleno-humeral ligaments and capsule of his left shoulder. Though surgeries for pitchers have become quite commonplace in today’s baseball landscape, this was actually the first one for the veteran.

Kershaw was a workhorse earlier in his career but has had some health issues in recent seasons. From 2010 to 2015, he logged at least 198 innings for six straight years but hasn’t hit that number since. Recent years have seen him miss time here and there, often due to back issues, but the shoulder was the big concern in 2023. He somehow managed to toss 131 2/3 innings with a 2.55 earned run average despite his fastball velocity declining throughout the season but then was torched in his lone playoff start, only recording one out against the Diamondbacks while being charged with six earned runs.

The shoulder issue eventually require the aforementioned surgery in November and then he re-signed with the Dodgers in February. The deal is a two-year pact with the second season being a player option. Kershaw has a base salary of just $5MM in both years of the deal but with the ability to earn far more if he’s healthy. He gets an extra $1MM for getting to six starts, $1.5MM each for his seventh, eighth and ninth starts and then $2MM after his tenth. The Dodgers can’t get around this by using an opener, as a relief outing wherein Kershaw records at least nine outs also counts. At this point in the calendar, it’s still possible for Kershaw to unlock all of those bonuses and there are similar escalators for his 2025 option.

He began a rehab assignment by pitching three innings at the Single-A level on June 19. He was then shut down due to some shoulder soreness but Roberts downplayed the significance and Kershaw restarted his rehab assignment again more recently. He tossed three innings for Triple-A Oklahoma City last Saturday and then four innings on Friday, getting up to 67 pitches in the most recent outing. He’s now set to resume a big league career that already includes 2,712 2/3 innings with a 2.48 ERA.

Glasnow’s absence was far more mild, as he landed on the IL prior to the break due to some low back tightness, but the dual returns are significant for the Dodgers as they have had plenty of rotation challenges. Dustin May and Emmet Sheehan are each done for the year, with Tony Gonsolin likely to be in that camp as well. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has a rotator cuff strain that landed him on the 60-day IL, meaning he can’t return before mid-August. Bobby Miller struggled enough to get optioned down to the minors while Walker Buehler was ineffective before landing on the IL with a hip issue.

Amid all of those issues, the Dodgers have been using a rotation of veteran James Paxton, rookies Gavin Stone, Justin Wrobleski and Landon Knack, as well as occasional bullpen games. Getting Glasnow and Kershaw into that mix obviously helps, and the club will be promoting prospect River Ryan soon as well.

Though that group is about to be much stronger than it was heading into the All-Star break, the Dodgers are still expected to pursue rotation upgrades prior to the July 30 deadline. They have been connected to Garrett Crochet of the White Sox for weeks now and Bob Nightengale of USA Today mentions the fit again this morning, also adding that the club has interest in Tarik Skubal of the Tigers.

Though the Dodgers’ interest in Crochet has been known for a while, Nightengale adds that the Dodgers have discussed a blockbuster deal that would see them also acquire outfielder Luis Robert Jr. and maybe even reliever Michael Kopech as well. That’s not necessarily a big surprise, as teams usually discuss all kinds of various trade scenarios, with many of them not coming close to fruition.

But that does align with recent comments from president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, who suggested the Dodgers would be more focused on impact additions as opposed to marginal upgrades. The club has some holes but is understandably shooting for the stars at this point. They have made the playoffs in 11 straight years now and spent wildly in the offseason, adding Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani and others. Making the postseason for a 12th straight year won’t really count as an accomplishment for the club or its fans, so aiming high at the deadline and trying for a World Series seems to be the play.

Crochet would obviously fit the bill since he’s been one of the best pitchers in the league this year with a 3.02 ERA and 35.2% strikeout rate through 20 starts. There are some concerns about his workload since he’s already thrown more innings this year than in his entire professional career prior to this campaign, but he should be able to provide an impact even if moved to some kind of relief role down the stretch.

Robert also has some durability concerns as he’s only tallied 100 games in a season once, but that one occurrence was quite impressive. He got into 145 contests for the Sox last year and hit 38 home runs, stole 20 bases and provided quality defense in center field. Injuries have been a problem before and have cropped up again this year, as he missed two months due to a right hip flexor strain. But he’s been great in his limited time, with 11 homers and 11 steals in just 45 games. His 32.6% strikeout rate is a career high but his 10.2% walk rate is almost twice his career pace.

He could fit into a Dodger outfield that has seen Mookie Betts move to the infield and then head to the injured list. Teoscar Hernández is having a good year but it’s flimsy apart from that. Andy Pages and Miguel Vargas are doing well overall but most of their damage has come against lefties. Ideally, they would be platooned with Jason Heyward, but Heyward is also on the IL. James Outman is hitting just .153/.250/.258 on the year and was optioned to the minors for a while, only getting recalled when Heyward went on the shelf. Utility players Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernández and Cavan Biggio have also struggled.

In addition to their talents, both players would be incredibly attractive due to their financial situations. Crochet is in his first arbitration season but his injury absences have limited him to a salary of $800K this year. He has two arb seasons left after this one and will be in line for a decent raises, but from a very modest base. Robert is making $12.5MM this year, far more than Crochet but still a bargain for a player of his talents. He’ll then make $15MM next year with a pair of $20MM club options after that.

Each player has significant trade value in a vacuum but it would take a massive blockbuster haul for the Dodgers to get both. Their farm system is considered strong but whether a deal can come together or not will depend on what kind of price the Sox are asking for and what other teams are offering. But at 27-73 and with a farm system that isn’t especially well regarded, it makes sense the Sox are considering trading almost anyone and it seems they are doing just that.

Kopech can’t match either Crochet or Robert in terms of huge appeal, but he would have some value in his own right. After some inconsistent results as a starter, the Sox have been using him as their closer this year with some interesting but mixed results. His 5.05 ERA isn’t going to wow anyone and his 12.7% walk rate is concerning, but he has punched out 30.9% of batters faced. He’s only making $3MM this year and can be retained via arbitration for another season after this.

As for Skubal, it’s understandable why the Dodgers or any other club would be interested. He is a Cy Young candidate this year with a 2.41 ERA, 30.8% strikeout rate, 4.6% walk rate and 47.4% ground ball rate. He’s making a modest $2.65MM and has two seasons of club control beyond this one.

But that also makes him plenty appealing to the Tigers and it’s fair to wonder how available he is. The club once seemed buried in the standings but have been hot lately, winning 11 of their last 14 and climbing to within five games of a playoff spot. Getting Skubal away from Detroit was probably going to take a haul even when they were in seller position but it’s probably become more difficult in recent weeks.

Dodgers Notes: Kershaw, Heyward, Betts

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Dodgers fans received great news regarding veteran left-hander Clayton Kershaw today, as manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Jack Harris of the L.A. Times) this afternoon. The lefty pitched three innings without giving up a hit in a rehab start at the Triple-A level yesterday, striking out five while walking just one. According to Roberts, Kershaw is set to attempt to build on that strong outing on Friday with a four-to-five inning start. If that next rehab start goes well, the manager went on to suggest that the lefty could then return to the big leagues to make his 2024 debut.

A return to the Dodgers shortly after the All Star break would be a fantastic outcome for Kershaw, who had to be shut down from his rehab just three weeks ago due to lingering soreness in his shoulder. Last night’s start was his first since ramping back up after that shut down, and the fact that he’s already seemingly on the cusp of a return suggests that the soreness that had sidelined him has evaporated entirely. The future Hall of Famer’s return to action can’t come soon enough for the Dodgers, as the dire state of the club’s rotation mix has led them toward calling up right-handed prospect River Ryan just 16 1/3 innings into his season at the Triple-A level.

With both Kershaw and Ryan seemingly poised to join the club’s rotation as reinforcements in the aftermath of the break, the Dodgers are surely hoping the pair can combine with the existing quartet of veteran James Paxton and rookies Gavin Stone, Landon Knack, and Justin Wrobleski to handle starting duties until ace righty Tyler Glasnow is ready to return from the injured list. Walker Buehler and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are also both on the IL but expected to return to the majors at some point this season, while youngster Bobby Miller was sent to Triple-A recently despite the thinned-out rotation mix due to a brutal 8.07 ERA in seven starts this year.

Kershaw isn’t the only veteran help the Dodgers will be getting back from the IL shortly after the break, as Harris also relays that (per Roberts) outfielder Jason Heyward will be ready to return to action after the All Star break and will not require a rehab assignment before returning to the majors. The 34-year-old has taken a step back this year relative to his surprisingly strong 2023 campaign but has still been roughly league average at the plate with a .203/.299/.398 slash line in 42 games this season.

Heyward’s return should add depth to an outfield mix that has relied on struggling youngster James Outman in recent days. Outman entered the campaign likely to be a regular in the outfield for the Dodgers on the heels of an excellent 2023 season but struggled brutally in the early weeks of the season, leading the Dodgers to option him in mid-May. While he’s improved upon his previously brutal .147/.250/.266 slash line since returning earlier this month, Outman’s .273/.333/.273 slash line in six games since coming back to the majors hasn’t exactly inspired confidence in his ability to reclaim a regular role with the Dodgers, and the return of a steadier bat like Heyward’s should be a relief for the Dodgers team that has at times struggled to get production from the bottom of its lineup this year.

Heyward is joined in making progress towards a return by superstar Mookie Betts, who Roberts told reporters (including Harris) has begun to field grounders as he rehab his fractured left hand. Betts has been on the shelf since mid-June with a 6-8 week recovery time expected and isn’t expected back until sometime in August. He seems to still be more or less on track for that return, with Roberts noting (according to MLB.com’s Injury Tracker) that the 31-year-old is “excited” about the progress he’s making.

Betts was in the midst of a MVP-caliber season prior to his injury, slashing an incredible .304/.405/.488 in 72 games that’s made all the more impressive by the fact that he was simultaneously making a relatively seamless transition to becoming the everyday shortstop in L.A. this season. Miguel Rojas has looked good on both sides of the ball in an expanded role since Betts went on the shelf, however, meaning that the star might spent more time at a position more familiar to him such as second base or right field upon his return.

Dodgers Temporarily Shut Down Clayton Kershaw With Shoulder Soreness

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The Dodgers are halting Clayton Kershaw’s rehab process. Manager Dave Roberts told reporters that L.A. is shutting down the future Hall of Famer after he reported lingering soreness in his surgically repaired shoulder (link via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register).

Roberts downplayed any significant alarm, noting that a recent MRI revealed “no new incidents.” Rather, it seems the team is chalking it up as residual soreness. That’s not entirely unexpected as Kershaw builds into game shape after undergoing the procedure to repair the gleno-humeral ligaments and capsule in his throwing shoulder last November.

It seems Kershaw will be shut down entirely for at least a week. Roberts left open a fairly broad timetable, indicating the 10-time All-Star will hold off until the soreness completely subsides. That’s an understandable approach that might not delay Kershaw for too much longer. It introduces some amount of uncertainty to his timeline, though.

The 36-year-old had looked to be on track for a return around the All-Star Break. Kershaw started a rehab stint for Low-A Rancho Cucamonga last Wednesday. He tossed 36 pitches, 26 of them strikes, over three innings of one-run ball in his first game action of the season. Kershaw’s second start had been scheduled for tomorrow but things are on hold after he felt the discomfort in the days coming out of his first appearance.

Los Angeles recently placed Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler on the 15-day injured list. That pushed Landon Knack into the starting five behind Tyler Glasnow, Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone and James Paxton. Knack was recalled to rejoin the MLB staff last Friday. He tossed five scoreless frames against the Angels. Roberts said this evening that the rookie righty will remain in the starting five for the moment and is slated to take the ball for this weekend’s series in San Francisco (relayed on X by David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports).

Dodgers Notes: Kershaw, May, Graterol

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Longtime Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw has been sidelined for the entirety of the 2024 season to this point after undergoing shoulder surgery over the offseason, but recently began a rehab assignment as he eyes a potential return sometime next month. That rehab assignment has already hit a snag, however, as manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register) today that the veteran southpaw has felt “a little bit of soreness” in the aftermath of his rehab start for the club’s High-A affiliate in Rancho Cucamonga earlier this week.

That soreness continued today for the veteran lefty when he threw a light bullpen session, and Roberts indicated that the club is considering pushing back his next rehab start- which is currently scheduled for Tuesday- depending on how he feels in the coming days. Kershaw is expected to play catch tomorrow, and how he feels after that session could determine whether or not the Dodgers go ahead with the planned outing. The potential setback is a frustrating one, as a relatively speedy return by Kershaw would be hugely impactful for a rotation that recently lost both Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler to the injured list.

Those injuries left the Dodgers to turn to rookie right-hander Landon Knack in the fifth starter role behind Tyler Glasnow, Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, and James Paxton. Outside of that group of five, however, the club is lacking in starting depth meaning further injuries could prove problematic for the club. Even setting aside L.A.’s quickly evaporating rotation depth, it’s worth noting that the 36-year-old lefty is almost assuredly one of the club’s five best starters to begin with; after all, the future Hall of Famer hasn’t posted an ERA north of 3.55 since his rookie campaign back in 2008 and managed to put together a 2.46 ERA across 24 starts last year despite playing through shoulder issues.

Roberts also provided more positive injury updates to reporters (including Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times) this evening regarding right-handers Dustin May and Brusdar Graterol. The manager indicated that both pitchers have begun to throw bullpen sessions and called the sessions “promising.” While the timelines for each player’s return are still unclear, Roberts expressed confidence that both would return to action before the 2024 season comes to a close.

May, 26, has had a frustrating MLB career to this point. The righty debuted late in his age-21 season back in 2019 and enjoyed some success over his first two big league campaigns, with a 2.98 ERA and 3.96 FIP in 90 2/3 innings of work, first out of the bullpen in 2019 and then as a member of the rotation during the shortened 2020 campaign. May went on to win the World Series with L.A. during the pandemic-shortened campaign while pitching out of the bullpen during the postseason but returned to the rotation in 2021.

Unfortunately, he made it just five starts into the 2021 campaign before undergoing Tommy John surgery and has not put together a wire-to-wire big league season since. While the right-hander has pitched to an impressive 3.21 ERA and 3.59 FIP since the start of the 2021 campaign, he’s also been limited to just 101 innings across 20 starts during that time by the aforementioned Tommy John and a flexor tendon procedure he underwent in last July. It’s not clear whether the Dodgers hope to return May to the rotation upon his return to action or if he’ll be ticketed for the bullpen, but if healthy he figures to be an impactful arm for the club in whatever role he takes on.

As for Graterol, the 25-year-old hurler has been one of the club’s most reliable relievers since he was acquired from the Twins prior to the 2020 season. In 173 2/3 innings of work for the club since then, Graterol has pitched to an exceptional 2.69 ERA with a 3.24 FIP. He’s struck out just 18.9% of batters faced during that time but has generated an extraordinary 62.5% groundball rate as a Dodger while limiting free passes to just a 5.5% rate. Graterol figured to once again factor into the club’s high-leverage plans at the back of the bullpen this year until those plans were scuttled by a shoulder injury during Spring Training that eventually led the club to shut the righty down in late April. Should he return before the end of the season, he’d likely return to the back of the club’s bullpen alongside closer Evan Phillips.

Dodgers To Reinstate Bobby Miller Next Week

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Bobby Miller will return to the Dodgers rotation next week. Manager Dave Roberts told reporters that L.A. will reinstate Miller from the 15-day injured list to start against the Rockies on Wednesday (X link via Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times). He’s not the only Dodger pitcher who’ll be making a noteworthy start that night. Clayton Kershaw will begin a rehab appearance with Low-A Rancho Cucamonga on Wednesday.

Miller has been out of action for more than two months. The second-year righty took the ball three times before going on the shelf with shoulder inflammation. He began a rehab stint on May 26 and has started four games in the minors. Miller had a rough go on that assignment, allowing 14 runs over 15 innings. He topped out at 4 2/3 innings and 93 pitches for Triple-A Oklahoma City yesterday.

A former first-round pick, Miller emerged as arguably the Dodgers’ top starter in the second half of his rookie season. He turned in a 3.76 ERA with a solid 23.6% strikeout rate over his first 22 starts. He recorded a career-high 11 strikeouts against the Cardinals to kick off his sophomore season, but the Cubs tagged him for five runs over 1 2/3 frames in his second outing. Miller tossed four innings of two-run ball against the Twins before the injury.

The Dodger rotation let them down in the postseason, contributing to their sweep at the hands of the D-Backs in the Division Series. The front office overhauled the group over the winter. The Dodgers signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a record deal for a pitcher not long after acquiring and extending Tyler Glasnow. They brought in James Paxton later in the offseason.

That trio each has an earned run average between 3.00 and 4.00 on the season. Glasnow and Yamamoto have been excellent, running huge strikeout rates with plus command. Paxton’s peripherals are much shakier, as he has walked 12.6% of batters faced with a well below-average 13.8% strikeout rate.

Gavin Stone has stepped up in Miller’s absence, working to a 2.93 ERA over 67 2/3 innings. Walker Buehler has rounded out the starting staff since his return from Tommy John surgery. Buehler has shown some rust over his first seven starts, allowing 4.64 earned runs per nine with a diminished 19.7% strikeout percentage.

No one from that quintet will be nudged out of the rotation. Roberts said the Dodgers will move to a six-man rotation “for this moment in time” once Miller returns (link via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). Los Angeles is three games into a stretch of 12 consecutive game days. The Dodgers already shuffled their rotation this week to get an extra couple days off for Yamamoto and Glasnow, so they’ll welcome the opportunity to get their starters a bit of a breather. That’ll come with a hit to their bullpen depth, as they’ll need to go to a seven-man relief group to meet the limit of 13 pitchers on the active roster.

The Dodgers could welcome Kershaw back to the group a few weeks from now. The three-time Cy Young winner underwent shoulder surgery in early November. Next week’s appearance will be his first game action of 2024. That could position him for a return to the MLB rotation around the All-Star Break.

Kershaw worked to a 2.46 ERA over 24 regular season starts a year ago. His velocity evaporated down the stretch as he pitched through the injured shoulder, though, culminating in a disastrous outing in his lone playoff start. He officially re-signed with L.A. in February on an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $10MM. Kershaw is making a $5MM base salary and could earn an additional $7.5MM in performance bonuses if he gets to 10 starts. He has a $5MM player option for next year that could rise as high as $20MM if he makes 10 starts in 2024. That still seems attainable with Kershaw trending towards a July return.

West Notes: Miller, Kershaw, Graterol, Scherzer

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The Dodgers have suffered more than their fair share of injuries this season, but they have received several positive updates in recent days. For one, young right-hander Bobby Miller could soon rejoin the rotation. After a strong rookie season in 2023, Miller has missed most of his sophomore campaign with a shoulder injury. However, his latest rehab appearance last Friday went well, and afterward, manager Dave Roberts suggested Miller could be ready to return without another rehab start – although, as more time passes without an update, it seems that Miller will likely make one final rehab start after all (per MLB.com)

Miller allowed seven runs on 11 hits and six walks over 11 2/3 innings across his first three starts in 2024 before landing on the IL. However, he is coming off a breakout 2023 season in which he pitched to a 3.76 ERA and 3.93 SIERA over 22 starts (124 1/3 innings). Still just 25 years old, he looks to be a fixture in the Dodgers rotation for years to come.

The Dodgers currently have a starting five of Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Gavin Stone, James Paxton, and Walker Buehler, so they don’t need to rush Miller back from the IL. That said, with no off days in their schedule until June 23, the Dodgers could certainly use a sixth starter to help shoulder the workload.

More injury updates from around the NL and AL West…

  • Sticking with Dodgers starting pitchers, Clayton Kershaw could soon begin a minor league rehab assignment of his own. The long-time Dodgers ace has yet to pitch this season after undergoing shoulder surgery last November. However, Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reported on Saturday that Kershaw was scheduled to throw a third simulated game, and after that, he could be ready to start a rehab assignment. This seems to put him on track to come back sometime next month. “Sometime in July” was always considered the earliest possible timeline for Kershaw’s return.
  • Meanwhile, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register reports that reliever Brusdar Graterol will throw a bullpen session this week. The right-hander has been out since spring training with a shoulder injury, and he suffered a setback in late April, forcing him to shut down his throwing program. Graterol played a key role in the Dodgers bullpen last season, pitching to a 1.20 ERA and 3.31 SIERA over 68 appearances, racking up seven saves, 19 holds, and leading the pitching staff in Win Probability Added (WPA).
  • Finally, moving over to the American League, Max Scherzer could rejoin the Rangers rotation as soon as next week (per Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today). The three-time Cy Young winner is scheduled to make a third rehab start on Friday, after which he could be ready to return to the majors. His second rehab appearance went well, and barring a setback, his outing with Triple-A Round Rock on Friday could be the last rehab start he needs. Wilson reports that Scherzer could make his 2024 debut as early as June 19, although he suggests the Rangers could opt to give Scherzer some extra rest, pushing his start back to June 21.

2024-25 Player Option/Opt-Out Preview: June Edition

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We’re two months into the 2024 season, meaning more than a third of the schedule has already elapsed. While there are still plenty of games remaining, there are enough in the books to affect the market of the upcoming free agent class.

That’s particularly true for players who can opt out of their current contracts. Player ages are for the 2025 season.

  • Cody Bellinger (29): Can opt out of final two years and $52.5MM on three-year guarantee

Bellinger didn’t find the $200MM+ offer he was seeking last winter. As with a few other high-profile Boras Corporation clients (more on them in a minute), he pivoted to a short-term deal that allowed him to return to free agency next winter. Bellinger is arguably out to the best start of the bunch and seems on track to head back to the open market. He can earn a salary of $27.5MM in 2025 or take a $2.5MM buyout. If he decides to stay with the Cubs, he’ll then get to choose between a $25MM salary for 2026 or a $5MM buyout.

The lefty-hitting center fielder has a .265/.325/.459 line with eight homers over 203 plate appearances. His 15.8% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk percentage are on par with last year’s levels. Bellinger is again succeeding despite a below-average 33.8% hard contact rate. He’s not performing at quite the same pace he did in 2023, but the overall profile remains the same: good contact skills with the ability to play center field and mediocre batted ball metrics.

It could set up another winter where Bellinger’s exit velocities are the subject of plenty of debate. Perhaps his camp will need to lower their asking price in the early stages of his free agency, but the initial decision to opt out would be a straightforward one if he continues at this pace. He’d still be fairly young for a free agent at 29. Now two seasons removed from his dismal 2021-22 production, he also wouldn’t be saddled with a qualifying offer. Bellinger received the QO last winter, so he cannot receive another in his career.

  • Matt Chapman (32): Can opt out of final two years and $36MM on three-year guarantee

Chapman also settled for a short-term deal after a tough finish to the 2023 season. The defensive stalwart inked a three-year, $54MM contract with the Giants early in Spring Training. He has a $17MM player option for next season and an $18MM player option for the ’26 campaign if he doesn’t take the first opt-out. There’s a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for 2027 as well.

Over 60 games in San Francisco, he’s hitting .238/.307/.411 with eight home runs. That’s slightly better than average production in this season’s diminished run environment. By measure of wRC+, Chapman has been nine percentage points better than average at the plate — right in line with his usual level. He’s putting the ball in play more than he ever had before, but he’s sacrificing a few walks and some of his typically huge exit velocities to do so. While this would probably be enough for Chapman to head back to free agency in search of a three- or four-year deal, it’s not likely to result in the nine-figure contract that seemingly wasn’t on the table last offseason.

  • Gerrit Cole (34): Can opt out of final four years and $144MM on nine-year guarantee; team can override by exercising a $36MM option for 2029 if Cole declines his end

As recently as a few months ago, this decision looked preordained. Cole, coming off a Cy Young win and probably the best pitcher in baseball, would trigger the opt-out — only for the Yankees to override it by exercising a $36MM option for 2029. Boras suggested as much in a chat with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale in December.

His status has at least been somewhat complicated by elbow inflammation that arose during Spring Training. Cole has spent the entire season on the 60-day injured list; he’ll begin a minor league rehab stint tonight. If he looks like his typical self in the second half, this’ll probably be an easy call for Cole and the Yankees alike. If he struggles or, more worryingly, battles any other elbow concerns, he’d need to more seriously consider hanging onto the final four years and $144MM on his record free agent deal.

  • Nathan Eovaldi (35): Conditional $20MM option if Eovaldi reaches 156 innings pitched or based on Cy Young/All-Star results

Eovaldi’s $34MM deal with the Rangers contained a conditional option for 2025 that went into effect if he threw at least 300 innings in the first two seasons. He logged 144 frames a year ago, meaning he needed 156 this season. Eovaldi lost three weeks to a groin strain. He has made nine starts and thrown 50 innings so far, leaving him 106 shy of the vesting threshold. With another 18-20 turns through the rotation, it’s still doable, but any other injuries would essentially rule it out.

He could also kick in the option with a top-five finish in Cy Young balloting or a top seven Cy Young finish and an All-Star selection. While he’s pitching very well, the Cy Young provision only comes into play if he falls short of 156 innings. Placing that high without reaching 156 frames is a tall task.

Even if he were to vest the option, Eovaldi may well prefer to head back to free agency in search of a multi-year deal. While he’ll be 35, he still looks the part of an upper mid-rotation starter. Eovaldi has followed up a 3.63 ERA during his first season in Arlington with a 2.70 mark to this point. His fastball is sitting around 96 MPH and he has punched out more than 26% of opposing hitters with a ground-ball rate north of 50%. There’ll always be lingering durability questions given his age and two previous Tommy John surgeries, yet on talent, Eovaldi is one of the better pitchers who could be available.

  • Wilmer Flores (33): $3.5MM player option; team can override by exercising an $8.5MM option if Flores declines his end

In September 2022, the Giants signed Flores to a $16.5MM extension. He has a $3.5MM option for next season; if he declines, the Giants could keep him around by picking up an $8.5MM salary. Flores had arguably the best year of his career in 2023, drilling a personal-high 23 homers with a .284/.355/.509 slash line. The pendulum has swung in the opposite direction this season. He has only one longball with a .207/.276/.283 mark in 163 trips to the plate. Flores’ strikeout and walk profile haven’t changed, but his contact quality has plummeted.

A full season of replacement level production would make it likely that Flores takes the $3.5MM salary. There’s still time for him to find his power stroke, though.

Giolito is likely to take a $19MM salary from the Red Sox next year. The typically durable right-hander suffered a UCL injury during his second Spring Training appearance with Boston. He underwent an internal brace procedure and will miss the entire season. While he could be ready for the start of next season, he’d be hard-pressed to match a $19MM salary coming off the elbow procedure.

Opting in would trigger a conditional team/mutual option for the 2026 season, though. If Giolito doesn’t top 140 innings next year, the Sox would have a $14MM option (with a $1.5MM buyout) for ’26. Giolito would convert that to a $19MM mutual option by reaching the 140-inning plateau.

  • Mitch Haniger (34): Can opt out of final year and $15.5MM on three-year guarantee

The Giants signed Haniger to a three-year, $43.5MM free agent deal two winters back. That allowed him to opt out of the final season’s $15.5MM salary. Haniger’s time in the Bay Area was a disappointment. A broken arm limited him to 61 games and he didn’t hit well when healthy. San Francisco dealt him back to the Mariners last offseason in a change-of-scenery swap involving Robbie Ray and Anthony DeSclafani.

Haniger is the only member of that trio who has played in 2024. (Ray is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, while DeSclafani was flipped to the Twins and ultimately required elbow surgery himself.) The veteran outfielder hasn’t hit in his return to the Pacific Northwest. He carries a .221/.282/.349 line with six homers and a strikeout rate approaching 28% in 213 plate appearances. He’s trending towards sticking around.

  • Rhys Hoskins (32): Can opt out of final year and $18MM on two-year guarantee

Hoskins inked a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers after losing all of 2023 to an ACL tear. He landed in a favorable hitting environment in Milwaukee with a chance to prove he was back to his typical offensive form. Hoskins has done just that over the season’s first two months, connecting on 10 homers with a .243/.345/.486 line through 168 trips. He’s well on his way to opting out and would be one of the top offensive players in next year’s free agent class. The Brewers could make him a qualifying offer.

The Dodgers brought back the future Hall of Famer, who is rehabbing from an offseason shoulder procedure. His deal contains a 2025 player option with a $5MM base value and significant escalators. It’d jump to $7MM if he makes six starts this season, $3MM apiece for each of his seventh through ninth start, and another $4MM if he starts 10 games. Performance bonuses could push his 2025 salary as high as $25MM.

It’s likely Kershaw will exercise the option regardless of where the specific value winds up. He has been throwing but has yet to begin a rehab stint. A return relatively early in the season’s second half — which would give him a chance to get to 10 starts — is still in play.

Manaea opted out of a $12.5MM salary last winter and landed a two-year, $28MM pact from the Mets. He’s been a rare bright spot in a dismal season in Queens. Over 11 starts, the southpaw has tossed 57 innings of 3.63 ERA ball. He has a solid 23.2% strikeout rate behind an 11.2% swinging strike percentage. Manaea’s 9.9% walk rate is a personal high, but he’s looked the part of a decent mid-rotation starter.

If he continues at this pace, he’d likely forego next year’s $13.5MM salary and hit the market for a third straight winter. Manaea will be heading into his age-33 campaign and could look for a two- or three-year pact (potentially the final multi-year deal of his career). Even if wouldn’t dramatically improve on his annual salary, pitchers like Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have gotten multi-year deals in their mid-30s for mid-rotation work.

Cincinnati guaranteed Martinez $26MM over two seasons — $14MM this year with a $12MM option for 2025. That investment made it appear the Reds would give him an extended look in the rotation. They’ve instead kept him in the swing role which he played for most of his time with the Padres. Martinez has started five of 13 games, posting a 4.20 ERA across 49 1/3 innings. He has a microscopic 0.76 ERA from the bullpen but has been rocked for a 7.36 mark out of the rotation.

On the surface, Martinez’s production doesn’t seem all that eye-catching. It’s not too dissimilar to Manaea’s work in a swing role with the Giants in 2023, though. Manaea turned in a 4.44 ERA while starting 10 of 37 games with San Francisco. He declined a $12.5MM player option and found a multi-year deal with a team willing to give him a rotation spot. Martinez (like Manaea, a Boras Corp. client) has opted out of multi-year commitments from San Diego in each of the last two offseasons. He’d probably do the same next winter if his performance doesn’t dramatically turn.

Montgomery agreed to terms with the Diamondbacks just days before the start of the regular season. He landed a $25MM salary for this year and a conditional player option for 2025. The condition — making 10 MLB starts — would only not come into play if the southpaw suffered a significant injury. Montgomery is already two starts away from vesting the option. Its value would escalate to $25MM if he gets to 23 starts.

The 31-year-old certainly anticipated declining that option and trying his hand again in free agency. He’s been hit hard through his first eight starts in the desert, though. Montgomery has been tagged for a 5.48 earned run average across 44 1/3 innings. While he’s still showing good control, his strikeout rate has plummeted seven points to a poor 14.4% rate. His four-seam and sinker are each averaging less than 92 MPH after sitting around 93.5 MPH last season. Perhaps Montgomery is still shaking off rust related to his delayed start to the year, yet his early performance could make the option decision tougher than he expected.

The Reds signed Pagán to a two-year, $16MM contract with the ability to collect a $250K buyout in lieu of an $8MM salary next season. It was an odd fit considering Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home park and Pagán’s longstanding trouble with the longball. His first 21 appearances as a Red have been fine. He owns a 4.19 ERA across 19 1/3 innings. The righty has a customarily strong 30.5% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk percentage. He has surrendered four homers.

Pagán, who is currently on the 15-day injured list with triceps tightness, has performed about as the Reds probably anticipated. This one can still go either way, but an $8MM salary for his age-34 season feels about right for his market value.

  • Wandy Peralta (33): Can opt out of final three years and $12.65MM on four-year guarantee

The Padres surprisingly signed Peralta to a four-year deal as a means of reducing the contract’s luxury tax hit. The veteran southpaw has been effective, turning in a 2.66 ERA across 23 2/3 innings. Peralta doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s an excellent ground-ball specialist (55.6% this season, 53.1% for his career). Even though he’s pitching well, it’d be somewhat surprising to see him walk away from another three years and almost $13MM covering his age 33-35 seasons.

  • Robbie Ray (33): Can opt out of final two years and $50MM on five-year guarantee

Ray’s five-year, $115MM contract with the Mariners allowed him to bypass the final two seasons valued at $25MM annually. Ray had a solid, if not overwhelming, first season in Seattle. His elbow gave out after one start in year two. Ray underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023. The Mariners offloaded the final three years of his contract in the Haniger trade with the Giants.

The former AL Cy Young winner is targeting a return around the All-Star Break. He has been throwing from a mound and could head on a rehab stint in the coming days. Odds are against an opt-out right now, but a dominant second half could change the calculus.

The Royals signed Renfroe to a surprisingly strong two-year, $13MM deal. The righty-hitting outfielder was coming off a middling .233/.297/.416 showing between the Angels and Reds a year ago. He has had a very rough start to his Kansas City tenure, hitting .178/.256/.309 with only four homers in 168 plate appearances. It’d take a major reversal in the season’s final few months for him to forego a $7.5MM salary.

The Giants jumped in late on Chapman and even later to grab the defending NL Cy Young winner. Snell signed a two-year, $62MM guarantee two weeks before Opening Day. The hope for everyone involved was that he’d collect the first $32MM and pitch well enough to pass on next season’s $30MM option.

Snell’s first two months in the Bay Area couldn’t have gone much worse. He has battled groin issues throughout the season. Snell lost around a month with an adductor (groin) strain between April and May. He went back on the 15-day IL last night. He has taken the ball six times and been rocked for a 9.51 ERA over 23 2/3 innings. Needless to say, he’ll need a much better final four months to go back to free agency.

The Renfroe deal wasn’t the only surprising two-year pact with an opt-out that the Royals signed last winter. They signed Stratton, a generally solid middle reliever, to an $8MM deal containing a $4.5MM option for next season. The right-hander was coming off a 3.92 ERA performance across 82 2/3 innings out of the St. Louis and Texas bullpens.

He hasn’t been as effective for the Royals, allowing 5.76 earned runs per nine through 25 frames. Stratton’s strikeout rate is down a few points to 21.7%, but the much bigger issue is an uncharacteristic inability to find the zone. He has walked almost 16% of batters faced, more than doubling last season’s rate.

  • Justin Verlander (42): Conditional $35MM option if Verlander reaches 140 innings pitched

Verlander would unlock a $35MM player option if he throws 140 innings this season. While he was delayed to start the year by shoulder discomfort, he has logged 52 innings in nine starts since his return. Barring another injury, he’ll throw more than 88 innings over the season’s final four months.

At 41, Verlander is still pitching well — a 3.63 ERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate — but he’s not operating at Cy Young form. If he continues at this pace all season, matching a $35MM salary on the open market is unlikely. Verlander seems comfortable in Houston and would probably prefer to stick with the Astros, though that may depend on whether the team plays better before the deadline. Verlander approved a trade from the Mets back to Houston last summer when it became clear that New York wasn’t going to be a legitimate World Series contender during his contract. At 27-34, the Astros need to turn things around quickly to put themselves in position for an eighth straight trip to the ALCS.

Wacha landed in Kansas City on a two-year commitment with matching $16MM salaries and the opportunity to head back to free agency after year one. The veteran righty is pitching well enough to make that a consideration. He owns a 4.24 ERA across 12 starts and 68 innings. That’s a run higher than his ERA of the past two seasons, but the general profile remains the same.

He throws strikes with slightly below-average whiff rates. He has thrown between 120-140 innings in each of the last three seasons and looks on his way to matching or surpassing that in 2024. Opting out in search of another two-year deal in the $30MM range is plausible.

Dodgers Notes: Miller, Snell, Kershaw

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Dodgers youngster Bobby Miller made his second rehab start last night as he works his way back from a bout of shoulder inflammation that has kept him out of action since mid-April. As noted by Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, manager Dave Roberts told reporters that Miller experienced “a little velocity drop” during the start. While a drop in velocity can often be a sign of a physical issue of some sort, Roberts suggested that the club does not believe Miller to have been dealt any sort of physical setback in his recovery process.

Lower velocity could help to explain Miller’s rough final line last night, as he allowed four runs on five hits and a walk in 3 1/3 innings of work without recording a strikeout. That shaky performance doesn’t seem to have altered the club’s plans for Miller, however, as MLB.com’s Injury Tracker notes that Miller is scheduled to make his next rehab start at the Triple-A level before the Dodgers decide on whether or not he’s ready to rejoin the big league club. A fully healthy return from Miller would surely be a shot in the arm for the club, as the 25-year-old looked good in 22 starts during his rookie season last year with a 3.76 ERA and 3.51 FIP in 124 1/3 innings of work.

More notes from L.A….

  • A recent report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that the Dodgers “made a late play” to land left-hander Blake Snell before he ultimately signed with the Giants on a two-year, $62MM deal. That the Dodgers had interest in Snell prior to his deal with San Francisco comes as something of a surprise given reporting from Heyman back in December that indicated the Dodgers had no interest in the reigning NL Cy Young award winner. Of course, in the months between those reports the market for Snell dried up considerably and he began to entertain short-term offers. Given Snell’s 10.42 ERA in five starts this year with the Giants, L.A. may have ended up better off by entering the season with a rotation of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Bobby Miller, James Paxton, and Gavin Stone. With Paxton and Walker Buehler both scheduled to hit free agency following the 2024 campaign, it’s possible the Dodgers could once again be a suitor for Snell’s services this winter should he rebound enough to opt out of year two of his deal with the Giants.
  • DiGiovanna also relays that the club’s longtime franchise face is making progress as he looks to work his way back from shoulder surgery. Lefty Clayton Kershaw faced six hitters in a live bullpen session yesterday, and in conversation with reporters (including DiGiovanna) compared to outing to an outing that would happen in the early stages of Spring Training during a normal year. The plan for Kershaw is currently for him to work his way towards a rehab stint after bumping up to two innings during his next bullpen session. As the Injury Tracker at MLB.com notes, the veteran lefty appears to be around six weeks away from a return to the big leagues, a timeline which would put him on track to return around the All Star break next month. Kershaw pitched through shoulder troubles last year, posting a 2.46 ERA in 24 starts for the Dodgers during the regular season, but ultimately opted to undergo surgery after a disastrous postseason start against the Diamondbacks where he allowed six runs while recording just one out.

Dodgers Notes: Treinen, Heyward, Kershaw

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Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times) this evening that veteran right-hander Blake Treinen is “likely” to be activated off the 15-day injured list prior to tomorrow’s game against the Braves. A corresponding move will be necessary to add him to the club’s active roster.

Treinen, 36 in June, last pitched in the majors back in 2022 and hasn’t pitched a full season since 2021 due to a number of injuries, including shoulder surgery. That said, the veteran enjoyed four scoreless appearances in Spring Training and appeared set to rejoin the club’s roster before he was struck by the injury bug once again. This time, Treinen was hit in the chest by a comebacker and suffered fractured ribs and a bruised lung, though he’s steadily progressed since then and appears to now be poised to return to a major league mound for the first time in nearly two years.

When healthy enough to take the mound, Treinen has been among the most dominant relievers in the league since a breakout 2019 season with the A’s that saw him finish sixth in AL Cy Young award voting after posting a 0.78 ERA with a 1.82 FIP in 80 1/3 innings of work while striking out 31.7% of batters faced. His work with the Dodgers since joining the club prior to the 2020 season hasn’t been on quite that otherworldly level, but he’s nonetheless been a dominant force at the back of the club’s bullpen when healthy with a 2.45 ERA and 3.00 FIP with a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 56.2% groundball rate in 103 innings of work as a Dodger.

Given those excellent numbers, it’s perhaps not a surprise that DiGiovanna relays that Roberts “won’t hesitate” to use the veteran in high-leverage situations upon his return. While Evan Phillips has locked down the closer’s role in L.A. with a 0.66 ERA and eight saves in 14 appearances this year, the rest of the club’s bullpen has struggled somewhat as the relief corps sports a collective FIP of 4.12, better than only the Rockies and Reds among NL clubs. With veteran set-up men Daniel Hudson and Joe Kelly looking somewhat shaky so far this season, it would hardly be a surprise to see the club turn to Treinen to help strengthen the bridge between the rotation and Phillips.

Elsewhere on the roster, outfielder Jason Heyward is making progress in his rehab from a bout of lower back tightness that sent him to the injured list just four games into the 2024 campaign, with Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register reporting that the veteran took batting practice today for the first time since suffering the injury. Heyward struggled badly at the plate for many years during his ill-fated eight-year contract with the Cubs but revived his career in L.A. last year, slashing a respectable .269/.340/.473 in 124 games as the club’s regular right fielder.

Heyward appeared poised to man right field for the club on a regular basis once again this year but his role upon his return to action has become less clear thanks to the breakout of outfield prospect Andy Pages, who had slashed an impressive .333/.354/.567 in 65 trips to the plate entering play this evening. Assuming the Dodgers want to keep Pages’s bat in the lineup, Heyward may be left to compete with the likes of James Outman and Chris Taylor for playing time in the club’s outfield mix.

Another veteran making progress in his rehab is future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw, who JP Hoornstra of Dodgers Nation notes threw a 15-pitch bullpen off the mound yesterday. It was his first time throwing off a mound since he underwent shoulder surgery this past winter. Hoornstra added that Kershaw’s exact timetable for return is not yet known, though his stated goal of returning to the majors at some point this summer looks very feasible given the progress he’s made to this point. Kershaw is one of a whopping seven starting pitchers currently on the major league injured list with the Dodgers, though the number will drop to six when right-hander Walker Buehler makes his season debut on Monday when he’ll re-enter the rotation alongside Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, James Paxton, and Gavin Stone.

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