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C.J. Wilson

Will C.J. Wilson Get $100 Million?

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Two years ago, Rangers lefty C.J. Wilson struck me as a quality reliever, but certainly not someone who could eventually score a $100MM contract.  Now, with free agency just months away, I'm wondering if that could be his ceiling on the open market.

Wilson

Wilson switched back to starting in 2010, and he exceeded expectations.  Though Wilson led the American League in walks, he also made 33 starts with a 3.35 ERA in the regular season.  Sure, his SIERA was 4.19, but the conversion was a success.  Had Wilson signed an extension after the 2010 season, giving up three free agent years for around $10-11MM apiece seemed appropriate.  The decision to wait paid off for Wilson, as he's taken his game to a new level in 2011.  The walks are down significantly, the strikeout rate is up, and he made the All-Star team.  Without Cliff Lee around, Wilson is the Rangers' undisputed ace.

Wilson's innings total predictably skyrocketed in 2010, but it didn't lead to any injuries.  Including the postseason, he made 37 starts that year for a total of 228 1/3 innings.  He averaged almost 17 pitches per inning in 2010 and about 6.2 innings per start.  This year he's been more efficient at 16.2 pitches per inning, and he's exceeding 6.6 innings per start.

Why do I think $100MM is possible?  Age is not a concern, as he turns 31 in November.  He's become a horse, but his overall mileage is low because of the time spent as a reliever.  He's succeeded in a tough home park and in the American League.  The advanced numbers are strong and he provides the fairly rare combination of strikeouts and groundballs.  Here's a look at the recent big pitching contracts signed on the open market:

  • Cliff Lee: five years, $120MM ($24MM per year).  32 years old at time of signing.
  • John Lackey: five years, $82.5MM ($16.5MM per year).  31 years old.
  • C.C. Sabathia: seven years, $161MM, plus opt-out clause ($23MM per year).  28 years old.
  • A.J. Burnett: five years, $82.5MM ($16.5MM per year).  32 years old shortly after signing.

It's easy to toss Wilson into the Lackey/Burnett bracket and expect a similar contract.  But Lackey had missed a month in each of his previous seasons and had totaled 373 innings.  Burnett was coming off a career-best 221 1/3 innings, but had pitched only 301 1/3 over the previous two seasons.  Meanwhile Wilson is projecting for perhaps 225 innings this year, for a total exceeding 450 over 2010-11.  He doesn't come with the injury concern Lackey and Burnett did.

Also consider that Burnett signed after the '08 season and Lackey after '09, so even if Wilson were comparable to them he'd deserve more based on inflation.  I think there's an easy case for $90MM over five years, so it's not crazy to think one team would add a sixth year or take him to the $20MM per year range.  This only applies if we're talking about a free agent bidding war – if the Rangers re-sign him prior to open season, it'll be for less.  It should be noted that the Yankees and Red Sox figured prominently into all four free agent contracts mentioned above, so their involvement with Wilson will be a huge factor.

We also have to look at what the free agent and trade markets will offer in terms of competition.  Sabathia could again be the free agent prize if he opts out, but he'll require a commitment well beyond Wilson that only a few teams could handle.  Sabathia could re-sign with the Yankees early on, which might take them out of the Wilson bidding but also leave him as the best available starter, easily above Edwin Jackson or Hisashi Iwakuma.  Yu Darvish being posted would shake things up, though some teams might still prefer Wilson.  The trade market figures to feature Wandy Rodriguez and perhaps a few surprises, but I'm not sure there's a Zack Greinke, Matt Garza, or Shaun Marcum-caliber pitcher in the mix for this offseason.

Wilson's progression has been amazing – an '08 season that ended with elbow surgery, 14 saves and a 10.3 K/9 relieving in '09, a mid-rotation type in '10, and an ace in '11.  Now it's time to see what he's worth.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Quick Hits: Soria, Bourn, Transactions, Wilson

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Sunday linkage..

  • A look at Royals closer Joakim Soria's contract situation shows that his $6MM option vested on July 30, when he pitched his 110th game between the 2010 and 2011 seasons. Soria's option vesting merely locks in his salary for 2012; he'd have been arbitration-eligible at any rate.
  • David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wonders if the Braves should extend Michael Bourn, and what the cost of it would be. As O'Brien points out, it's hard to come by comparables for Bourn, and the best may be Juan Pierre, whose contract is widely regarded as a tremendous mistake.
  • Baseball America's Matt Eddy runs down the week's minor league transactions.
  • Recently, impending free agent C.J. Wilson said that now is not the time to look ahead to the offseason and his next contract.  In an interview on 103.3 FM ESPN (audio link), Rangers assistant GM Thad Levine seemed to agree and said that the club isn't looking to negotiate mid-season, writes Bryan Dolgin of ESPNDallas.com.
  • Infielder Felipe Lopez will report to the Brewers' Triple-A affiliate on Monday after being outrighted on Wednesday.  The veteran didn't impress on Milwaukee's big league roster this year, batting .182/.245/.182 in 51 trips to the plate.
  • It's time for Athletics GM Billy Beane to move on to a different challenge, writes Bruce Jenkins of the San Francisco Chronicle.  While he's been linked extensively to the Cubs job, Jenkins wonders if Beane could be a fit for the Dodgers if GM Ned Colletti winds up being hired by Chicago.
  • The Marlins have begun the process of looking at managerial candidates and there is still interest in some corners of the Florida organization in Ozzie Guillen, writes ESPN.com's Buster Olney. The White Sox skipper has another year on his current deal but it remains to be seen whether Guillen will be invited back.

MLBTR's Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the contract information used in this post.

Quick Hits: White Sox, Rangers, Kazmir, Rockies

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MLBTR extends condolences to the family and friends of former Major League pitcher and executive Mike Flanagan, who was died at age 59, according to the Orioles. Flanagan, the 1979 AL Cy Young Award winner, was the Orioles' GM from 2002-07 and later became a broadcaster for the club. Here are this evening’s links…

AL West Notes: Fister, Rangers, Pena

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On this date last year, the Angels acquired Dan Haren from Arizona for Patrick Corbin, Tyler Skaggs, Rafael Rodriguez and Joe Saunders. The Angels finished with a losing record in 2010, but they're in contention now and Haren has been excellent, posting a 3.01 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 239 innings for the Halos. Meawhile, Skaggs has developed into one of the top prospects in the game and Corbin is highly-regarded as well. Here's the latest from the AL West… 

  • Mariners starters Felix Hernandez and Doug Fister told Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com that they don't want to be traded.
  • Rangers manager Ron Washington confirmed to T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com that he'd like to see the Rangers fortify their bullpen before the trade deadline.
  • The Mariners appear to believe Fister is better than Jason Vargas, so they may not want to deal Fister, according to Knobler (on Twitter). 
  • Rangers assistant GM Thad Levine told Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio that Texas continues discussing a contract extension for left-hander C.J. Wilson (Twitter links). Wilson, who hits free agency after the season, received a contract offer from the Rangers in March.
  • Levine also confirmed that the Rangers are looking for bullpen help and a left fielder. 
  • The Mariners, A's, Brewers and Giants have looked at free agent slugger Wily Mo Pena, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter). The Diamondbacks recently released Pena, who hit five homers in 46 plate appearances this year.

Quick Hits: Harper, Knapp, Wilson, Brewers

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The Nationals are promoting Bryce Harper to Double-A in time for tonight’s game. The 18-year-old, who was the first overall selection in last year's draft, had a .318/.423/.554 line with 14 homers and 19 steals at Class A. Here are some fourth of July links in anticipation of Harper’s Double-A debut…

  • Trade talk is picking up, but some teams believe there’s a lack of difference makers available on the trade market, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney. The few trade candidates who could make a difference in the pennant race are going to be difficult to obtain, Olney writes.
  • Former Tigers pitching coach Rick Knapp tells John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press that three general managers called him to discuss possible jobs. The Tigers fired Knapp yesterday.
  • Jamey Newberg hopes C.J. Wilson feels like a winner in Texas so that he re-signs with the Rangers this offseason, when he becomes a free agent.
  • Casey McGehee already has two hits today, but he has just a .226/.276/.313 line this season. Brewers GM Doug Melvin told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that he doesn't plan to demote the third baseman to the minors (Twitter link).

AL Links: Royals, Red Sox, Indians, Mariners

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Some links from the so-called junior circuit…

  • Royals GM Dayton Moore told MLB.com's Dick Kaegel that any move the team makes before the trade deadline would be something "we felt would help us long term." Kaegel notes that Jeff Francoeur, Melky Cabrera, Jeff Francis, and Bruce Chen are all candidates to move.
  • "I can't sit here and say we'll definitely make a blockbuster trade,''  said Red Sox GM Theo Epstein to Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston. "For one thing, there's not a huge market for sellers right now. But it's a long way from July 31. Market dynamics change, our own situation can change.'' It's been reported that Boston is unable to take on payroll at the deadline.
  • MLB.com's Jordan Bastian spoke to Indians GM Chris Antonetti, who said that "dialogue with other teams has certainly picked up over the last few weeks." Bastian says the team is likely to make smaller, incremental upgrades, but they are not opposed to dealing prospects.
  • Indians manager Manny Acta told Enrique Rojas of ESPNDeportes that Melvin Mora and Mike Cameron are “interesting” possibilities (Spanish link on Twitter). Mora was released yesterday and Cameron was designated for assignment today.
  • Geoff Baker of The Seattle Times looked back at what the Mariners did at the deadline over the last few seasons, which includes attempts to rebuild and "go for it."
  • With a 3.14 ERA through 117 2/3 innings, Rangers ace C.J. Wilson has put himself in a great position heading into free agency, writes T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com.

Free Agent Stock Watch: April 2011 Edition

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We're just four weeks into the season, so prospective free agents still have lots of time to establish their value before hitting the open market. Cliff Lee, who went on to become last offseason's most highly coveted free agent, had made just one start at this point last year. Adrian Beltre also started slowly; he was homerless with a .772 OPS last April before heating up and re-establishing his free agent value.

Other free agents used April as a springboard for standout walk years. Carl Crawford (.941 OPS, 7 steals) and Jayson Werth (.987 OPS) used the first month of the season to establish themselves as top free agents in 2010. With that in mind, here's a look at what ten members of this year's free agent class have done over the course of the first four weeks of the season:

  • Albert Pujols - It took him a few games to heat up, but Pujols has 7 homers, 18 RBI and a .258/.321/.485 line. It's nothing special, but he has been unlucky on balls in play and has hit like his usual self since the middle of the month.
  • C.C. Sabathia - Sabathia can opt out of the four years and $92MM remaining on his contract after the season and the way he's pitching, he may be able to obtain more guaranteed money that way. Sabathia is putting together another phenomenal season, with a 2.25 ERA, 8.1 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9.
  • Prince Fielder - Fielder leads the NL with 23 RBI and has a .326/.415/.565 line. Agent Scott Boras figures to be asking for Mark Teixeira money ($180MM) and then some this offseason.
  • Jose Reyes  - Reyes has a robust .321/.359/.459 line with 8 stolen bases and 11 extra base hits. If he keeps this up, could ask for $100MM-plus this winter.
  • Jimmy Rollins - Rollins, 32, has a .271/.346/.354 line so far this season. He's getting on base at a respectable clip, but he has never had a season with a slugging percentage this low. It seems unlikely that Rollins will have another 30 homer season, as his slugging percentage and isolated power have been in decline since 2007.
  • C.J. Wilson - Wilson's 3-0 record and 3.51 ERA look good and he's striking our nearly a batter per inning (8.4 K/9). He has a career-best walk rate so far (2.4 BB/9) after struggling with walks for years.
  • Carlos Beltran - With 3 homers and a .280/.359/.488 line, the 34-year-old Beltran is off to a strong start. Seemingly healthy after two injury-plagued seasons, he is now playing right field (though agent Scott Boras insists he can still handle center).
  • Mark Buehrle - Buehrle, 32, has a 5.12 ERA, but his peripheral stats suggest that his ERA should fall closer to his 3.87 career mark. Buehrle, who averaged 33 starts per year over the course of the last decade, leads the league with six starts in 2011.
  • Jonathan Papelbon - Elite relief pitching is arguably the biggest strength of the upcoming free agent class, so it remains to be seen whether Papelbon will have much leverage this winter. He's off to an excellent start, with 5 saves, a 1.93 ERA, 11.6 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9.
  • Heath Bell - Bell would like to stay in San Diego, but the Padres may not be able to afford him. If he keeps pitching like this – 0.90 ERA, 5 saves, 6.3 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 – someone else will be happy to pay for his services. His strikeout rate has dipped, but it's early.

Note that I haven't included Robinson Cano, Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and others whose teams could exercise options for 2012.

Heyman On Young, Emaus, Rays, Wilson, Melky

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The Rangers were close to sending Michael Young to the Rockies for two young players before the season, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com. The deal didn’t go through, but the Rangers appear to have assured the Rockies that they’ll have  the first chance to acquire Young if he becomes available once again. Here are the rest of Heyman’s rumors:

  • One GM told Heyman that Mets Rule 5 selection Brad Emaus looks like a Quadruple A player.
  • The Rays could have interest in adding a hitter now that Manny Ramirez isn’t around and Heyman suggests Chris Davis would be a fit. I wrote last month that the Rays are one team that could have interest in the first baseman if the Rangers make him available.
  • C.J. Wilson could ask for $82.5MM on his next contract, as Heyman points out. The left-hander hits free agency after the season and could compare himself to A.J. Burnett and John Lackey in negotiations with the Rangers and/or other clubs.
  • Alex Rodriguez worked out with Melky Cabrera this offseason and “begged” the Yankees to sign the outfielder to no avail.
  • The Orioles are “very high” on Jake Arrieta, the 25-year-old who made 18 starts as a rookie in 2010 and remains in Baltimore’s rotation.

Davidoff On Sabathia, Wilson, Calero

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While it's still too early in the season to draw conclusions about a player's performance, Ken Davidoff of Newsday takes note of a few impending free agents who are off to hot or cold starts. Players like Prince Fielder (hot) and Albert Pujols (cold) are locks to put up numbers and score big contracts, but some names Davidoff mentions can significantly affect their stocks based on their performances in 2011. Continued health and success from Jose Reyes should earn him a lucrative deal, while a good year from Edwin Jackson would set him up nicely in a free agent class thin on top starters. Let's check out the other updates from the Newsday piece….

  • Davidoff thinks there's a "decent chance" that the Yankees and C.C. Sabathia work out a contract extension before the left-hander's opt-out date next winter.
  • If that were to happen, C.J. Wilson would likely be the most desirable southpaw on the market, but Wilson is trying to avoid thinking about or talking about his walk year: "I'm just pretty much approaching it like I did last year. I'm not going to be looking at my stats too often, because that doesn't really help."
  • Davidoff wonders if the Mets or another club could take a flier on Kiko Calero, who agent Burton Rocks calls a "no-risk, high-reward, high-return guy for any organization." Health is the concern with Calero, though for what it's worth, Rocks says the 36-year-old is in "fantastic shape."

Rangers Notes: Thad Levine, C.J. Wilson

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At 9-1, the Rangers have the best record in baseball.  They've scored a healthy six runs per game and lead the league with a 2.22 ERA.  The latest on the club:

  • Assistant GM Thad Levine agreed to an extension that runs through 2015, reports MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan.  Levine told ESPN's Richard Durrett he's honored and thankful for the job security.  Jon Daniels brought Levine aboard in October of 2005, two weeks after he was hired as GM.
  • Durrett has an excerpt from Jayson Stark's upcoming column, in which Stark spoke to Rangers lefty C.J. Wilson.  The 30-year-old can be a free agent after the season.  "The winning thing is more important than anything else," Wilson told Stark.  Wilson agrees with Roy Halladay that free agency is more about picking where you play than about making the most money.  The Rangers made an offer to Wilson in March, which you can read about here.
  • While we're talking Rangers, head here to read MLBTR's Offseason In Review from last week.
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