The Twins are facing tight payroll restrictions this offseason as they look to improve after narrowly missing the playoffs thanks to a brutal collapse back in September. With the club’s budget for 2025 reportedly set at $130MM and a payroll that RosterResource currently projects at $142MM, it’s hardly a secret that the club figures to make trades that will shed payroll this winter. Per Bobby Nightengale of the Minnesota Star Tribune, that’s led some clubs to inquire with the Twins about the availability of star shortstop Carlos Correa. While Nightengale goes on to emphasize that there’s been no indication those inquiries have become more serious than a preliminary phone call, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey nonetheless addressed the possibility of a Correa trade during Day 1 of the Winter Meetings on Monday.
“Obviously, you expect teams to call on players like that, especially with where we are and some of the conversations we’re having with other clubs,” Falvey said of Correa, as relayed by Nightengale. “But we want to win, so a high bar is set.”
That’s a notable change in tone from last month, when Falvey emphasized that a Correa trade wasn’t something the club was “focused on” and called Correa a “key” part of the club’s plans alongside Byron Buxton and Pablo Lopez. Even so, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reported Monday that multiple sources with the Twins indicated that it’s “hard to envision” the club parting with Correa. Given that apparent reluctance to deal their star shortstop and the apparently extremely preliminary nature of inquiries into his availability, it still seems more likely than not that Correa will remain in a Twins uniform for Opening Day 2025.
With that being said, the idea of a Correa trade is certainly intriguing. Correa’s recent history has been extremely tumultuous. After signing with Minnesota on a short-term deal during the 2021-22 offseason, Correa re-entered free agency the following year after a strong platform season and reached agreements with both the Giants and Mets before those deals ultimately fell through due to medical concerns. That led Correa to re-up with the Twins on his current deal, which calls for him to earn $128MM over the next four seasons before a series of four team options that Correa can vest into guaranteed years by reaching certain plate appearance thresholds or earning a top-5 MVP finish, a Silver Slugger award, or an LCS/World Series MVP award in the season prior to the option.
Correa’s complex contract also comes with a full no-trade clause, meaning that he would have to approve of any deal that shipped him out of Minnesota. Further complicating any trade talks involving Correa is his up-and-down performance since re-signing in the Twin Cities; the shortstop’s 2023 season saw him post just 1.8 fWAR and a 95 wRC+ in a full workload of 135 games as he played through plantar fasciitis. His performance bounced back to its previous impressive level in 2024 as he hit .310/.388/.517 with a 155 wRC+, but plantar fasciitis once again hobbled him and limited the shortstop to just 86 games. Overall, the 30-year-old has hit .261/.341/.444 (119 wRC+) in 221 games over the past two seasons.
Given Correa’s tantalizing value when healthy, it’s easy to imagine at least some high-revenue clubs being willing to gamble on his contract. That’s clearly not going to be enough to get a deal done, however, as Falvey has made clear that he isn’t interested in merely dealing Correa for the sake of salary relief. Even if Correa were willing to waive his no-trade clause to depart Minnesota, it’s unclear if interested clubs would be willing to part ways with the sort of package that would entice Falvey to make a deal in order to land him. While the club has 2022 first-rounder Brooks Lee as an option potentially capable of taking over shortstop in the event that Correa is traded, he struggled to a .221/.265/.320 slash line in his first taste of big league action and may not be ready for an everyday job to start the 2025 season.
With the apparent unlikelihood of a Correa deal coming together in mind, it still seems as though the Twins will have to shed salary somewhere. To that end, Nightengale highlights utility man Willi Castro, right-hander Chris Paddack, and catcher Christian Vazquez as “obvious trade candidates,” though he suggests that none of the three would bring back much of significance in return beyond salary relief. It’s not the first time that trio has come up as potential trade candidates this winter, but if the Twins managed to clear all three of them off the books entirely that would free up a combined estimate of $23.7MM using the $6.2MM projection of Castro’s final trip through arbitration offered by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.
If Minnesota were able to free up all of that money, they’d seemingly have around $10.5MM to invest in other areas of the roster. To that end, Nightengale notes that Falvey described adding a first baseman “has some appeal” with Carlos Santana having elected free agency last month, and that a right-handed complement to lefty outfielders Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach could also make plenty of sense for a club that lost Manuel Margot to free agency in November as well. Ramon Laureano, Mark Canha, and Austin Hays are among the interesting budget options available on the right-handed outfield market, while Santana is joined by the likes of Josh Bell, Anthony Rizzo, and Paul Goldschmidt in the lower tiers of the first base market this winter.
