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AL East Notes: Guerrero, Sale, Rays

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays “haven’t had the conversations yet” this winter about a multi-year extension, the slugger tells Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi and other reporters.  Guerrero didn’t sound overly concerned about the lack of talks, saying “I’m going to stay focused on working hard and let my team take care of that.”  The idea of a long-term deal between Guerrero and the Jays has been a topic essentially since Guerrero arrived in the majors as baseball’s top prospect, and though the first baseman is heading into his fifth MLB season, the clock isn’t yet ticking too loudly on Guerrero’s team control.  Toronto still has arbitration control over Guerrero through the 2025 season, and the two sides already worked out a contract for Guerrero for 2023, as he’ll earn $14.5MM for the coming year.

With Guerrero set to become a free agent prior to his age-27 season, this relatively early entry into the market likely means a particularly large payday is awaiting the first baseman — whether from another team, or in the form of an extension from the Blue Jays to lock Guerrero up as the face of the franchise.  As Davidi notes, the massive longer-term contracts handed out this winter undoubtedly caught the attention of both the Jays and Guerrero’s representatives, and now both sides may have a better view of what it might cost the Blue Jays to retain Guerrero’s services.  Since most extension talks usually don’t begin until deeper into Spring Training, it will be interesting to watch if Guerrero and the Jays have any substantive negotiations, or if any real progress is made towards an extension.

More from the AL East…

  • After three injury-riddled seasons, Chris Sale told reporters (including The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham) that he is “very, very excited” about being healthy and heading for his first normal Spring Training since 2019.  Between a Tommy John surgery, a fractured rib, and fractures to his finger and wrist, Sale has pitched only 48 1/3 Major League innings since the start of the 2020 season, which was also the first season of a five-year, $145MM contract extension Sale had signed with the Red Sox the year prior.  Given the lack of return on this extension, Sale feels “I owe my teammates the starting pitcher they thought they were going to get.  I owe the front office the starting pitcher they paid for.  I owe the fans performances they’re paying to come and see.”  Looking for a silver lining to his injury woes, Sale noted “that’s three years of [pitching] that’s not on my arm” as he enters his age-34 season.  “That’s not going on the odometer.  I’ve kept myself in really good physical shape.  My arm’s feeling good.  I don’t have any hesitation going forward with pitching.”
  • Seven Rays players are slated for arbitration hearings, which is (as per MLB.com) is the third-highest number of hearings for any team in the history of the arb process.  President of baseball operations Erik Neander felt the lack of agreement in negotiations with the seven prior to the arbitration filing deadline were “much more about the uniqueness of several players’ career paths leading to a bit of a more challenging experience for both parties to find common ground,” the executive told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.  “But I very much believe that everyone worked to find it — we just didn’t quite get there.”  As Topkin notes, the differences between the Rays’ submitted salary figures and the seven players’ figures work out to only $2.85MM in total.  That said, it doesn’t seem likely that any deals will be worked out before the sides present their cases to an arbiter, unless a player signs a multi-year contract.  [RELATED: the full list of the 33 players who are heading for arbitration hearings]

Red Sox Notes: Middle Infield, Hernandez, Arroyo, Sale, Whitlock, Houck

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Red Sox’s brass met with reporters and fans at their Winter Weekend convention this evening. Manager Alex Cora and chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom each addressed the roster status with roughly two months remaining in the offseason.

The middle infield is among the biggest questions. With Xander Bogaerts in San Diego and Trevor Story set to miss at least a notable portion of the upcoming season, Boston has very little certainty up the middle. Adam Duvall agreed to a one-year deal earlier this week to man center field, likely kicking Enrique Hernández back to the infield.

Manager Alex Cora suggested that was currently the team’s plan, implying that Hernández was the in-house favorite to play shortstop (via Ian Browne of MLB.com). That leaves Christian Arroyo as the likeliest option to man second base. Bloom indicated the team remained open to adding help from outside the organization (relayed by Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe) but the Hernández – Arroyo pairing seemingly has the inside track among internal candidates.

Hernández has experience at every non-catching position on the diamond. He’s primarily played center field or second base, logging just 618 shortstop innings through parts of nine MLB seasons. Defensive Runs Saved has looked favorably upon his limited work there, rating him as nine runs better than average overall. Hernández has typically graded out as a solid or better second baseman and a particularly strong center fielder, where he spent the bulk of his time in 2022.

Arroyo has been in the Boston second base mix for the past couple seasons. He’s hit at a roughly league average level in both years, making plenty of contact to compensate for low walk rates. Arroyo has logged just under 900 major league innings at the keystone. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him an excellent 10 runs better than the average defender there, while Statcast has rated him as an exactly average gloveman.

There aren’t many middle infield options remaining in free agency. Elvis Andrus and Josh Harrison are probably the top players still available. The Sox have been loosely tied to both in recent days. Donovan Solano, César Hernández and José Iglesias are among the depth types remaining as well.

There’s also a fair amount of uncertainty on the pitching side of things in Fenway, largely thanks to injury. Chris Sale, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock each ended the 2022 season on the injured list. Whitlock is returning from hip surgery, while Houck underwent a back procedure. Sale had myriad health concerns that culminated in surgery to repair a fracture in his right wrist sustained in a bicycle accident.

Cora said this evening that all three pitchers have been throwing off a mound (relayed by Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic). All three could factor into the rotation. Sale’s a lock for the starting five if healthy. The Sox have already announced they plan to give Whitlock a rotation opportunity. Houck’s role seems more fluid, as he could crack the starting five or remain in a high-leverage relief capacity. The former first-round pick has been the subject of some recent trade speculation, though there’s no indication a deal is on the horizon or especially likely to transpire.

Red Sox’s Chris Sale Drawing Trade Interest

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Teams are reportedly checking in with the Red Sox on the availability of seven-time All-Star Chris Sale, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. However, Heyman notes that Boston is “not looking to trade any of their starters,” but is “willing to listen and consider.” Sale is currently owed $55MM through the 2024 season. Nevertheless, Sale has full veto power over any potential trade by virtue of his 10-and-5 rights (ten years of Major League service time, including at least the past five with the same team).

Arriving in Boston after the 2016 season, Sale continued to display his superiority on the mound, pitching to sub-3 ERAs in 2017 and 2018 while helping the Red Sox win their fourth World Series Championship since 2000. Following their victory, Boston and Sale soon hammered out a five-year, $145MM extension (with a vesting option for the 2025 season) that many believed to be a bargain at the time for a starting pitcher that had seven consecutive All-Star appearances, six consecutive Top-5 Cy Young finishes, four consecutive seasons of MVP consideration, and boasted a career 2.89 ERA in 1482 1/3 innings with a 30.2 SO%,  5.7% BB, and 42.9% ground ball rate.

However, after signing that extension Sale went on to have arguably the worst full season of his career. In 2019, the southpaw saw his ERA balloon to a career-high 4.40 in 147 1/3 innings while dealing with inflammation in his pitching elbow that forced a premature end to his year.

After rehabilitation and undergoing a platelet-rich plasma injection, expectations were high for the lefty as the extension went into effect for the 2020 season. However, Sale would soon be forced to undergo Tommy John surgery in March 2020, missing the entirety of the truncated season and the first half of the 2021 season. He was then shelved for the beginning of the 2022 season due to a stress reaction in his ribcage, and he suffered a broken pinkie finger upon being hit by a comebacker shortly after returning. Then, shortly before he was scheduled to return to the club, the Red Sox announced in early August that Sale had fractured his wrist in a bicycle accident and would miss the remainder of the season.

Altogether, it’s been a near-nightmarish start to the contract extension for the Red Sox, although this year’s slate of injuries, in particular, seem fluky in nature. To Sale’s credit, in the small amount of time he’s been healthy enough to take the mound during the first three years of the extension, he’s been excellent. In those 48 1/3 innings, Sale owns a 3.17 ERA with a strong 27.4%% strikeout rate against a tidy 6.3% walk rate. Inning-for-inning, that’s largely the type of performance the Sox were hoping for — but Sale’s body has not held up.

The 33-year-old Sale (34 in March) is but one of many question marks for the Boston rotation. Nick Pivetta is the only largely established starting option for the Sox heading into 2023. Top prospect Brayan Bello is tentatively lined up for a turn in the rotation but didn’t quite seize one in this year’s rookie effort (57 1/3 innings, 4.71 ERA — albeit with better secondary marks and sparks of brilliance). Righties Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck have rotation potential but both have thus far been shuttled between the starting staff and the bullpen. Additional righty starters Kutter Crawford, Josh Winckowski, and Connor Seabold were all posted ERAs north of 5.25 as rookies in 2022.

With Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, and Rich Hill departing via free agency and Sale and James Paxton (also returning from injury) wild cards, the Red Sox were expected to target starting pitching this offseason. Nevertheless, the club has yet to add to their staff, instead fortifying their bullpen and adding position players Masataka Yoshida and Justin Turner.

From a financial perspective, if Sale, who is projected to be healthy for Spring Training, can return to even a fraction of his dominant self, the Red Sox will have control of a top-tier starting pitcher who can be considered ’cheap’ when compared to other high-level starters that have recently signed large contracts with AAVs greater than $35MM, such as Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole, and Jacob deGrom. That’s not to say that Sale is currently at the level of those pitchers, but that he has been at similar heights and could reasonably reach a prominent level of production again

Currently, Roster Resource projects Boston’s payroll to be near $177MM, and their competitive balance tax figure to be roughly $203MM. With the base competitive balance tax threshold set at $233MM for the 2023 season, the Red Sox are in no rush to shed salary and may instead hold onto Sale in the hopes that he returns to his pre-Tommy John levels of excellence.

Chris Sale Will Not Exercise Opt-Out Clause

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In one of the least-surprising opt-out decisions in recent memory, left-hander Chris Sale has informed the Red Sox that he will not exercise the opt-out clause in his five-year, $145MM contract, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom tells Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.

There’s never been any real thought that Sale was a candidate to opt out of the remaining two years and $55MM on that ill-fated extension. He pitched just 5 2/3 innings with the Sox this season and, over the first three years of the agreement, has tallied just 48 1/3 innings through 11 starts. Sale underwent Tommy John surgery in March of 2020 and thus missed the entirety of that year’s truncated season.

The recovery from that Tommy John procedure sidelined him into August of 2021, and his 2022 season was derailed by a series of bizarre injuries; Sale was shelved for the beginning of the 2022 season due to a stress reaction in his ribcage, and he suffered a broken pinkie finger upon being hit by a comebacker shortly after returning. The Red Sox announced in early August that Sale had fractured his wrist in a bicycle accident and would miss the remainder of the season.

It’s been a nightmare start to the contract extension for the Red Sox, although this year’s slate of injuries, in particular, seem fluky in nature. To Sale’s credit, in the small amount of time he’s been healthy enough to take the mound during the first three years of the extension, he’s been excellent. In those 48 1/3 innings, Sale owns a 3.17 ERA with a strong 27.4%% strikeout rate against a tidy 6.3% walk rate. Inning-for-inning, that’s largely the type of performance the Sox were hoping for — but Sale’s body has not held up.

Looking ahead, the Sox have little choice but to hope Sale can get healthy and finally reclaim a spot near the front of their rotation. The lefty’s contract has zero trade value at present, and even if it did, Sale has full veto power over any potential trade by virtue of his 10-and-5 rights (ten years of Major League service time, including at least the past five with the same team).

The 33-year-old Sale (34 in March) is but one of many question marks for the Boston rotation. Nick Pivetta is the only largely established starting option for the Sox heading into 2023. Top prospect Brayan Bello could vie for a spot but didn’t quite seize one in this year’s rookie effort (57 1/3 innings, 4.71 ERA — albeit with better secondary marks). Righty Garrett Whitlock has obvious rotation potential but has thus far been shuttled between the starting staff and the bullpen. Fellow righties Kutter Crawford, Josh Winckowski and Connor Seabold were all hit hard as rookies in 2022.

Suffice it to say, with Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill all set to become free agents and Sale more or less a complete question mark, starting pitching will be one of the main focuses for the Red Sox this offseason. It won’t be their sole pursuit, however, as the Sox also potentially stand to lose Xander Bogaerts to free agency and still hope to extend slugger Rafael Devers, who is set to reach the open market following the 2023 campaign.

Including Sale’s weighty salary, the Sox have $86.72MM committed to next year’s books, although that’s counting a $20MM salary for Bogaerts, who is certain to opt out of his contract’s final three seasons. Boston also has nearly $40MM in projected arbitration salaries and is on the hook for some hefty contractual buyouts — most notably the $8MM yet owed to the since-released Jackie Bradley Jr. They’ll quite possibly be on the hook for James Paxton’s $4MM player option, which he’ll have the ability to exercise once the Sox make the easy call to decline his two-year, $26MM club option.

Previewing Upcoming Opt-Out Decisions And Player Options

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With the offseason approaching, so is the time for players and teams to decide upon any 2023 options in their contracts. MLBTR has taken a look through various option decisions in recent weeks: first with players whose deals contain vesting provisions, then a respective look at the team options in both the American and National Leagues.

Today, we’ll turn our attention to the players’ side. A number of players could hit free agency this winter either by triggering an opt-out clause in their current deal or bypassing a player option for the 2023 campaign. We’ll take a run through those decisions, many of which will have implications at the very top of the free agent market.

Note: All stats referenced are through play Sunday

Elite Potential Free Agents

  • Nolan Arenado, Cardinals 3B (can opt out of final five years and $144MM)

Arenado was already on a Hall of Fame trajectory before 2022, but he’s bolstering his case with the best season of his career. Through 500 plate appearances, he owns a .306/.370/.567 line with 27 home runs. He’s had seasons with that kind of slash line in years past, but they came with the caveat that he’d played half his games at Coors Field. That’s no longer a factor, and it’s easily his best offensive output once one adjusts for the ballpark. Arenado’s 162 wRC+ is the fourth-best mark among qualified hitters.

That kind of offensive production alone would get him in the MVP discussion, but Arenado’s obviously valuable for far more than his bat. One of the best defensive third basemen in MLB history, he’s continued to post elite marks with the glove even as he’s entered his 30s. Arenado is among the top handful of players in the game. While walking away from $144MM wouldn’t be an easy decision, it’d seem the prudent one from a strict financial perspective. Freddie Freeman received six years and $162MM from the Dodgers (albeit with deferrals that reduced the net present value closer to the $148MM range) headed into his age-32 season. Freeman was coming off a 135 wRC+ platform showing, and he plays a less valuable position. Arenado and his camp could make a strong argument the Freeman contract should represent his floor, and it’s not outlandish to seek a six-year deal at the $35MM annual range Anthony Rendon received from the Angels (which would bring the guarantee to $210MM).

On paper, Arenado’s opt-out decision looks like a slam dunk. There’s at least some amount of uncertainty, though, as he forewent an opt-out opportunity last offseason and told Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch it was “always the plan” to remain in St. Louis long term. Passing on free agency coming off a .255/.312/.494 showing in 2021 is a lot easier than doing so after a career-best year that should make him an MVP finalist. Maybe he’s comfortable enough with the Cardinals he’ll return, but he’d probably be leaving a lot of money on the table to do so. At the very least, he looks to have a case for a renegotiation of his contract with the Cards, which is slated to pay him just $15MM in the final season (2027).

  • Carlos Correa, Twins SS (can opt out of final two years and $70.2MM this offseason; deal also contains post-2023 opt-out if Correa opts in this winter)

Regarded by many (MLBTR included) as the top free agent in last winter’s class, Correa reportedly turned down at least one ten-year offer early in the offseason in search of a guarantee that rivaled the $341MM Francisco Lindor had received from the Mets last April. That proposal seemingly never came, and Correa reversed course in Spring Training. He signed a shocking three-year deal with the Twins that guaranteed him the largest annual salary ($35.1MM) for a free agent position player and afforded the opportunity to retest the market in either of the next two offseasons via opt-out.

Conventional wisdom was that Correa was sure to trigger his first opt-out and make another run at a long-term deal in a winter unaffected by a lockout. That still seems likely, although he hasn’t resoundingly made the case for teams to be more willing to approach the Lindor range that they had been. He’s having a similar offensive season as he did during his final year with the Astros. After posting a .279/.366/.485 showing his last year in Houston, Correa is hitting .276/.355/.439 over 440 plate appearances with Minnesota. His raw power production is down, but that’s not quite as alarming when considering the leaguewide slugging percentage has dropped from .411 to .395. Perhaps of greater concern is that the elite defensive marks that garnered Correa a Gold Glove last season are unanimously down, ranging anywhere from below-average (-2 Outs Above Average) to solid (+4 Defensive Runs Saved, +1 Ultimate Zone Rating).

There’s no question Correa’s an excellent player having a very good season. Yet he’s not likely to wind up a top five finisher in MVP balloting as he did in 2021. He’d top a $200MM guarantee on the open market, but he’s unlikely to reach the kind of money he anticipated last offseason. Could he return to Minnesota (where he’s by all accounts very happy) for one more year and look to trigger his post-2023 opt-out after hopefully putting up MVP-caliber numbers? That feels unlikely, but he’s already bet on himself once and would only be entering his age-29 season if he put off opting out for a year.

Bogaerts has been the Red Sox’s everyday shortstop since 2014, but his time in Boston could be nearing its end. He and the club didn’t make progress in extension talks this spring, and he’s a lock to opt out and top $60MM on the open market barring a catastrophic injury. One of the game’s top offensive shortstops, Bogaerts is amidst another strong season. He carries a .303/.372/.448 line through 508 plate appearances. His slugging output is below where it was from 2018-21, but he consistently gets on base and has a strong pre-2022 track record from a power perspective.

One can quibble about certain aspects of Boagerts’ profile. In addition to this year’s slugging dip, he’s traditionally rated as a below-average defender. Even with generally solid defensive metrics this season, clubs will probably have some question whether he’ll eventually need to move to second or third base. Those are nitpicks for whether Bogaerts would be a worthwhile investment in the $180MM – $200MM range, though. A 30-year-old shortstop with an elite durability track record and a .299/.370/.478 line since the start of 2020, he’s certainly going to shatter $60MM even if the market takes a relatively pessimistic view of his long-term projection.

  • Jacob deGrom, Mets RHP (can opt of final year and $33.5MM this offseason)

There’s no suspense with this one, as deGrom has publicly maintained his plan to opt out for months. That’s in spite of elbow/shoulder injuries that kept him from throwing a major league pitch between July 2021 and this August. With only one guaranteed year remaining on his deal (plus a 2024 club option that’d go into effect if he doesn’t opt out this winter), that’s been a pretty easy call. To the extent there may have been any lingering doubts, deGrom has silenced them with his first five starts since returning from the injured list. He’s looked like his vintage self, averaging 99.3 MPH on his fastball while posting a laughable 46:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 29 1/3 innings. On an inning-for-inning basis, he’s the best starting pitcher on the planet.

deGrom’s free agent case will be fascinating. Even if he finishes the season healthy, he’ll have gone three consecutive years without topping 15 starts or 100 innings (although he’s obviously not at fault for the shortened 2020 schedule). What kind of volume a signing team can expect is an open question, particularly as he enters his age-35 season. Yet the upside of a healthy deGrom is through the roof. He’ll receive a multi-year deal that beats the $33.5MM remaining on his current contract. Can he top teammate Max Scherzer’s $43.333MM AAV over a three or even four-year term? Time will tell.

While we’re on the topic of upper-echelon starting pitchers who are basically certain to opt out, let’s turn to Verlander. The future Hall of Famer triggered a $25MM option for next season by throwing 130 innings, but that’s largely a moot point. Verlander told Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic last week he was likely to opt out if things went as planned down the stretch. It’d have been surprising if he were even considering exercising the option.

Verlander has returned from 2020 Tommy John surgery to lead the major leagues with a 1.84 ERA. He’s striking out 26.5% of opponents and has a strong argument for a third career Cy Young award. He’s also a proven playoff performer and a prototypical ace who eats about as many innings as anyone else in the game. Even heading into his age-40 season, Verlander can try to beat the Scherzer AAV on a multi-year contract.

Verlander did injure his calf in his most recent start, resulting in a placement on the injured list just this afternoon. The Astros announced that an MRI of his calf revealed “fascial disruption, but no muscle fiber disruption” — an extremely specific diagnosis but one that both Verlander and GM James Click touted as good news. Click expressed hope the injury will be short-term, and Verlander suggested that had he sustained damage to the muscle fibers themselves, he’d likely have missed the remainder of the regular season and perhaps part of the postseason.

The manner to which Verlander rebounds will obviously be key in his opt-out scenario, but if he misses only a couple weeks’ time and returns strong for his final regular-season and postseason starts, this opt-out is an easy call.

We’ll wrap up the trifecta with Rodón, who’s also going to have an easy decision, barring injury. While there was some trepidation about Rodón’s breakout 2021 season — both due to his inconsistent track record before last season and some shoulder soreness and a velocity drop last August — he’s doubled down and looks to have cemented himself among the game’s top ten starters. Rodón has avoided the injured list thus far, and he’s striking out 32.1% of opponents while posting a 2.81 ERA through 25 starts. By topping 110 innings, he earned the right to opt out after this season.

Heading into his age-30 campaign, he should land the nine-figure deal that eluded him last offseason. Between his youth and last two years of production, Rodón has an argument for the largest guarantee of any free agent starter. He won’t get paid at the deGrom or Verlander level on an annual basis, but he could push for six years and look to top $150MM.

Quality Regulars Likely To Opt Out

Rizzo’s market last offseason seemed a bit underwhelming. The veteran first baseman was coming off two fine but unspectacular seasons, and it looked as if his best days might be behind him with his mid-30s approaching. Rizzo still made plenty of contact and hit the ball hard, but he’d gotten quite pull-oriented and had rough ball-in-play results against an increasing number of defensive shifts. He signed a two-year deal with the Yankees that paid him matching $16MM salaries and allowed him to opt out after this season.

That now looks like an easy call, as Rizzo has bounced back with a year more reminiscent of his peak days with the Cubs. He carries a .223/.337/.480 line and is going to top 30 homers for the first time since 2017. He’s still getting dismal results on balls in play and doesn’t have a particularly impressive batting average, but even that looks as if might turn around next year. It’s widely expected MLB will institute limits on shifting next spring. Few players would stand to benefit more than Rizzo, who’s facing a shift on a whopping 83.5% of his plate appearances according to Statcast. His age and lack of defensive versatility will limit the length of any deal, but he’ll probably beat the $16MM salary over at least a two-year term, even if the Yankees tag him with a qualifying offer.

The Padres’ signing Profar to a three-year, $21MM deal that allowed him multiple opt-out chances was one of the more eyebrow-raising moves of the 2020-21 offseason. The switch-hitter was coming off a solid 2020 campaign, but that shortened schedule was the first in which he’d posted above-average production. It looked like a misstep when he struggled last year and unsurprisingly forewent his first opt-out clause, but Profar has rewarded the organization’s faith with a career-best showing in 2022.

Through 530 plate appearances, he’s hitting .241/.339/.387 with 12 homers. He’s walking at a robust 12.3% clip while only going down on strikes 15.1% of the time. He looks like a solid regular, and headed into his age-30 season, Profar’s a candidate for another multi-year deal this time around. After major throwing issues as an infielder early in his career, he’s played exclusively left field this year. Profar isn’t a prototypical corner outfield masher, but his plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills should allow him to top the guaranteed money remaining on his current deal.

Starting Pitchers With High Buyouts

Walker signed a $20MM guarantee with the Mets over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal was front-loaded but came with a $6MM player option or a $3MM buyout for 2023. Adding a player option allowed the Mets to soften the contract’s luxury tax hit. Because player options are treated as guaranteed money, it technically qualified as a three-year, $20MM deal with a $6.67MM average annual value for CBT purposes. Yet the $3MM gap between the option value and the buyout meant Walker was a virtual lock to opt out, barring injury that made him unable to pitch next season. The Associated Press reports the option has various escalators that could push its value as high as $8.5MM if Walker throws 175 innings this year, but even that figure is modest enough he’s going to decline.

Walker should opt out in search of a multi-year deal, as he’s been a valuable mid-rotation arm for New York. Over 117 1/3 frames, he owns a 3.38 ERA despite a modest 18.3% strikeout rate. His blend of plus control and solid ground-ball rates makes him a candidate for a three-year pact as he heads into his age-30 season. The Mets will have an interesting decision on whether to tag him with a qualifying offer.

Like Walker, Odorizzi signed late in the 2020-21 offseason on a deal that locked in the first two seasons and gave the player a third-year option. Odorizzi’s contract with the Astros was similarly structured to facilitate a third-year buyout while diminishing the AAV for luxury tax purposes, although he’s deciding on a bit more money. The option was initially valued at $6.5MM with a $3.25MM buyout, but the Associated Press provided a breakdown of various escalators. The option value would jump by $2MM apiece if Odorizzi reached 20, 25 and 30 appearances between 2021-22 in which he either started the game or worked four-plus innings of relief. The buyout value would spike by $1MM apiece for hitting each of those thresholds.

Odorizzi has already made 41 such appearances over the past two years, so he’s long since maxed out both thresholds. He’ll therefore be deciding between a $12.5MM option to return to the Braves or taking a $6.25MM buyout and heading to free agency. With only a $6.25MM difference between the option value and the buyout, Odorizzi looks like a borderline opt-out case. He owns a 3.90 ERA across 85 1/3 innings this season, although his 18.3% strikeout rate is a few points below league average. He’ll be 33 by next Opening Day, and he didn’t find as robust interest as most expected he would during his last trip through free agency. He’s a quality strike-thrower and a perfectly fine back-of-the-rotation starter, but it’s now been three years since he’s missed bats at an above-average rate, and he was traded this summer in a one-for-one swap for an underperforming reliever (Will Smith).

Easy Calls To Return

  • Chris Sale, Red Sox LHP (can opt out of final two years and $55MM)

Sale has the right to pass on the final two years of his extension with the Red Sox this winter, but he certainly won’t do so. He’s made just 11 starts over the past three seasons due to various injuries, including a 2020 Tommy John surgery and a trio of fractures (rib, finger and wrist) this year. Sale has still flashed mid-rotation or better upside in the limited time he’s been on the field, but there’s too much uncertainty with his health to land anywhere near $55MM were he to test the market.

  • Eric Hosmer, Red Sox 1B (can opt out of final three years and $39MM)

Hosmer’s opt-in decision is a no-brainer. Since signing a $144MM contract with the Padres heading into 2018, he’s posted a league average .264/.325/.409 slash line. Paired with his lack of defensive versatility and mixed reviews on his glovework (public metrics have never been as fond of Hosmer as his four Gold Gloves would suggest), he’d probably be limited to one-year offers were he a free agent. The Padres will remain on the hook for virtually all of the money, as they agreed to pay down Hosmer’s deal to the league minimum salary to facilitate his trade to the Red Sox.

  • Jorge Soler, Marlins LF (can opt out of final two years and $24MM; deal also contains post-2023 opt-out if Soler opts in this year)

Soler parlayed a big second half and huge batted ball metrics into a three-year deal with Miami last offseason. His massive raw power hasn’t translated into especially strong results since he’s become a Marlin, however. He’s been a below-average hitter, and it’s now been three years since he was a middle-of-the-order caliber player over a full season. Paired with a limited defensive profile that keeps him in the corner outfield or at designated hitter, he’s been right around replacement level this season. He’s not opting out this year, but a big showing in 2023 could allow him to reconsider the possibility next winter.

  • AJ Pollock, White Sox LF ($11MM option, $5MM buyout)

The White Sox acquired Pollock just before the start of the season, sending Craig Kimbrel to the Dodgers in a surprising one-for-one swap. The hope was that they’d addressed a notable hole in the corner outfield, but Pollock’s production has cratered in Chicago. Just a season removed from a .297/.355/.536 showing in L.A., he’s stumbled to a .237/.284/.363 line through 401 plate appearances with the ChiSox. Even with a fairly modest $6MM gap between the option’s present value and the buyout, Pollock is likely to bypass a trip to free agency after a replacement-level platform season.

The present $11MM option value isn’t fixed, as Pollock’s contract contains escalators that could boost it a bit further. Originally set at $10MM, he’d lock in an extra $1MM for hitting each of 400, 450, 500, 550 and 600 plate appearances this season. He’s already surpassed 400 trips, and the 450 mark is well within range with 34 games remaining. Consistent playing time down the stretch would allow him to reach 500 plate appearances as well, although it’s hard to envision him getting to 550. The most likely outcome is that the option price ends up at $12MM, but anywhere between $11-13MM is viable.

Schoop signed a two-year, $15MM extension amidst a productive 2021 season in Detroit. While a defensible enough decision for the Tigers at the time, that hasn’t panned out. The veteran second baseman has a .235 on-base percentage that’s easily the worst in the majors among players with 400+ plate appearances. He’s posted otherworldly defensive marks this season and could well collect a Gold Glove, but the complete lack of production at the dish should make him a lock to exercise his option.

Blackmon exercised a 2022 option last season, and he went on the record at the time as saying he’d trigger the 2023 provision as well. There’s no intrigue as to his decision — he’ll be back in Colorado next year — the only question is how much he’ll make. The ’23 option came with a $10MM base value, but ESPN reported it’d escalate by $500K apiece if Blackmon reached 400, 425, 450, 475, 500, and 525 plate appearances in 2022. It’d jump another $1MM apiece at 550 and 575 trips.

The veteran outfielder enters play Tuesday with 490 plate appearances, so he’s already pushed the value to $12MM. Barring injury, he’s a lock to hit at least the 525 PA mark, and he’s quite likely to get all the way to 575. Colorado has 33 games remaining, and Blackmon is only 85 plate appearances (2.76 per game) from maxing out the plate appearance threshold at $15MM. The deal also contained escalators based on MVP finishes which Blackmon will not hit.

Relievers

  • Nick Martinez, Padres RHP (can opt out of final three years and $19.5MM this offseason, $1.5MM buyout; deal also contains opt-out chances after 2023 and 2024 if Martinez opts in)

Martinez signed a four-year, $25.5MM guarantee with San Diego this past winter. That deal contained opt-out chances after each of the first three seasons for the former NPB hurler, but it seems unlikely Martinez will take his first opportunity to return to the open market. He has a strong 3.02 ERA over 92 1/3 innings during his return season in the big leagues, but he’s worked as a swingman for a San Diego team that has quite a bit of rotation depth. Martinez has excelled as a reliever, pitching to a 1.35 ERA while holding opponents to a .208/.258/.295 line in 40 innings. That’s come with a modest 21.5% strikeout rate, though, and he doesn’t brandish the power arsenal teams tend to prioritize late in games.

Entering his age-32 season, Martinez probably wouldn’t find a better deal that the opt-out laden three years and $18MM (after factoring in the buyout price) he’d be bypassing to return to the open market. The Friars have to be happy with their investment considering his excellence out of the bullpen, but the surprisingly strong deal they gave him in the first place makes it hard to see him doing much better elsewhere even on the heels of a quality first season.

Detroit signed the ever-reliable Chafin late last offseason, and they’ve been rewarded with another excellent year. Through 43 1/3 innings, he’s posted a 2.91 ERA while striking out more than 30% of opponents with an excellent 52.3% ground-ball rate. The market probably undervalued Chafin last winter; it’d be hard to do so again after another very good season. In a vacuum, declining the option and topping $6.5MM in free agency seems likely.

That said, the Tigers decision to not trade Chafin at this summer’s deadline was tied to a belief he could stick around. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press reported shortly before the deadline that Detroit’s proximity to Chafin’s Ohio home could lead him to return in 2023 if he weren’t moved before August 2. That led to a disconnect in his trade value, with the Tigers confident they still possessed a year and a half of his services while other clubs viewed him as an impending free agent. From a strict financial perspective, opting out is the prudent call. Yet the family considerations Petzold noted would make the decision more complicated if Chafin’s priority isn’t simply to maximize his earnings.

San Diego added Suárez, who’d never previously pitched in the majors, on the heels of an excellent career closing in Japan. He had a nightmare outing on Opening Day where he dished out free passes to all three batters he faced, but he’s been quite effective since that point. Excluding his first appearance, Suárez owns a 2.36 ERA with a strong 29% strikeout rate in 34 1/3 innings. He’s still had spotty control, but he’s averaging north of 97 MPH on his fastball. He’d only need to beat $4MM on the open market, and something around that rate over a multi-year term feels attainable heading into his age-32 season. A rough final couple months could change the calculus, but Suárez seems likely to retest free agency at the moment.

Red Sox Select Jeurys Familia

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Just a few days after signing Jeurys Familia to a minor league contract, the Red Sox have selected the veteran right-hander to the big league roster.  In corresponding moves, right-hander Kaleb Ort was optioned to Triple-A, and Chris Sale (who recently underwent season-ending wrist surgery) was moved to the 60-day injured list.

Familia is looking for a new beginning after posting a 6.09 ERA over 34 innings with the Phillies this season.  Philadelphia signed the righty to a one-year, $6MM this past offseason, but ended up releasing Familia last week.  In signing Familia and promoting him to the MLB roster, the Red Sox now owe him just the prorated portion of the minimum salary, while the Phils are responsible for the remainder of that $6MM total.

It’s been a rough season for Familia, who has posted below-average walk and strikeout rates while allowing more hard contact than almost any pitcher in baseball.  Familia is still averaging 95.7mph on his fastball, but that has been the only one of his pitches that has still been effective, as per Statcast’s metrics.  Batters have been teeing off on Familia’s sinker, which has been his primary pitch for the majority of his career (and he still throws the sinker over 50 percent of the time).

Still, at least a couple of Familia’s metrics are more favorable, as his 3.91 SIERA and an eye-popping .408 BABIP indicate some level of bad luck, despite all of that hard contact.  There isn’t much risk for the Red Sox in seeing if Familia can still contribute at the big league level, or at least provide a fresh arm within what has been a pretty middling Boston relief corps.

Red Sox Notes: Paxton, Wacha, Houck, Sale

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Red Sox lefty James Paxton, who underwent Tommy John surgery last year, seems to finally be healthy enough to start ramping things up. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the southpaw recently faced lived hitters and is expected to throw in a simulated game this Friday. The next step after that will be for him to start a rehab assignment, which would be followed by a return to the big league club.

“He’s in such a good spot now that it’s not about the arm,” manager Alex Cora said about Paxton. “It’s about the pitch mix, the breaking ball, all that. When those guys start talking about that, you know they’re over the hump.”

Paxton’s form down the stretch will be very significant both for him and the club, regardless of where they are in the standings. Boston signed him to a unique contract over the offseason, knowing that he was rehabbing from TJS and unlikely to contribute over a full season. Paxton is making a $6MM salary this year and then the club will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $13MM options for 2023-2024 at the end of the season. If the team declines to pick up what is effectively a two-year, $26MM deal, Paxton can decide to trigger a $4MM player option for 2023 or decline it and return to free agency. Those decisions will surely depend upon what Paxton shows in the coming weeks.

The Red Sox could use some contributions from Paxton, both in this season and in the future, given the tumult of their rotation. Just about every starter in Boston’s rotation has either landed on the IL or been optioned to the minors at some point, with Nick Pivetta being the only constant. Michael Wacha has only made 13 starts this year due to a pair of IL stints, one for an intercostal strain and the other for shoulder inflammation. However, Cotillo reports that he threw 4 1/3 innings in a rehab start last night and should return to the big league club for his next outing. That should give the club a boost, as they look to finish strong in the AL Wild Card race. They are currently five games behind the Rays for the last spot.

Looking farther into the future, each of Wacha, Nathan Eovaldi and Rich Hill are slated to reach free agency this offseason, which is part of the reason why those Paxton options might seem alluring, even if he only returns for a brief period of time. The 2023 Boston rotation might also take a hit from the uncertainty surrounding Chris Sale. The lefty was once one of the most dominant arms in the game but has hardly pitched in recent years due to a cavalcade of injuries. Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2020 and limited him to nine starts last year. He began this year on the IL due to a stress fracture in rib cage, returning to throw one five-inning start before his second start was cut short after less than an inning when a comebacker broke his finger. While on the IL, he managed to get hurt again, falling off a bicycle near his home and breaking his wrist, eliminating any hopes of his return this year.

Due to all that, Sale will go into the offseason having thrown just 48 1/3 total innings over the past three seasons, which raises questions about how much the Red Sox can rely on him for the rotation next year. “We obviously need to think through what that means as far as planning out a full season with him not having carried very much of a workload the last few years,” chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom tells Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic. “If we want to play 162-plus we have to build our team to have a lot of starting pitching depth,” he added. With Hill, Wacha and Eovaldi headed to the open market and Sale and Paxton unknown wild cards at this point, there’s plenty of uncertainty hanging over Boston’s future rotation.

Turning back to the present season, the Sox placed reliever Tanner Houck on the 15-day injured list with back inflammation yesterday, Cotillo relays, which will deliver a hit to the bullpen. Houck has a 3.15 ERA on the year, with a 22.7% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate and 50.9% ground ball rate. That’s included many high-leverage spots, as Houck as eight saves and one hold on the year. He’ll join Tyler Danish, Matt Strahm and Josh Taylor among Boston relievers currently on the injured list. The bullpen is so banged up that Cora told reporters, including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, that Hill might see some action out of the ’pen, despite having just started yesterday’s game.

Chris Sale Fractures Wrist, Will Miss Remainder Of Season

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The Red Sox announced Tuesday that lefty Chris Sale suffered a fractured right wrist “during a bicycle accident on Saturday, August 6.” The injury required surgery that will end Sale’s 2022 season. He’s expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training.

It’s the latest setback in a mounting pile of injuries for Sale, who has made just 11 starts while playing under the five-year, $145MM contract extension he signed back in March 2019. (The contract began with the 2020 season despite being signed in 2019, as Sale was already under contract for the ’19 season.) Since putting pen to paper on that contract, Sale has missed time with elbow inflammation that eventually culminated in Tommy John surgery, plus a stress reaction in his rib cage and a fractured pinkie finger incurred on a comebacker earlier this summer. Overall, he’s pitched just 48 1/3 innings in the regular season through the contract’s first three years (plus another nine frames in the 2021 postseason).

A healthy Sale is, of course, one of the sport’s most dominant talents. From 2012-18, Sale made seven consecutive All-Star Games and never finished lower than sixth in American League Cy Young voting. Along the way, he pitched to a collective 2.91 ERA in 1388 innings, averaging 30 starts and 198 frames per regular season (plus another 25 postseason innings with Boston). Sale came on in relief and punched out Justin Turner, future teammate Enrique Hernandez and Manny Machado in order to close out Boston’s 2018 World Series victory over the Dodgers, capping off the franchise’s fourth championship since the “curse-breaking” 2004 season.

It’s been mostly downhill for Sale since, as he’s battled fluke injuries and taken some deserved flak for being caught on film destroying a clubhouse television after getting an early hook during a Triple-A rehab game earlier this summer. This latest injury will bring Sale’s 2022 campaign to a close after just 5 2/3 innings.

Sale will turn 34 next March, so it’s still plenty feasible that he can return to form and serve as a foundational piece for the Sox moving forward. He averaged 94.9 mph with his heater during this year’s tiny sample of 5 2/3 frames — right in line (actually slightly better than) his average fastball during that aforementioned seven-year run of dominance between Chicago and Boston.

Given the recent rash of injuries, the Sox surely won’t be banking on 30-plus starts out of Sale, but at the same time, his contract leaves them little choice but to hope for the best. With Nathan Eovaldi, Rich Hill and Michael Wacha all set to hit free agency at season’s end, Sale and righty Nick Pivetta are the only Sox starters who can be penciled into next year’s group. Lefty James Paxton could potentially be in that mix as well; his contract has a pair of $13MM club options for the 2023-24 seasons that must be exercised simultaneously at season’s end. The team almost certainly won’t be taking their end of the deal — Paxton has yet to pitch in 2022 — but Paxton also has a $4MM player option for next season in the event that those club options are declined. Suffice it to say, rotation stability will be a point of emphasis for chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom this winter.

Red Sox Place Chris Sale On Injured List, Select Yolmer Sanchez

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The Red Sox officially placed Chris Sale on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to July 19, after the southpaw fractured his pinky on a comebacker during his final start before the All-Star Break. Brayan Bello has been recalled from Triple-A Worcester to take his active roster spot. Boston also selected infielder Yolmer Sánchez and optioned out catcher Connor Wong.

Sale’s timetable for a return remains unclear. He underwent surgery earlier this week, with the team announcing they anticipated he’d be back at some point this season. Manager Alex Cora acknowledged today he has “no idea” when the southpaw could return, adding “hopefully he can get back with us and dominate” (via Steve Hewitt of the Boston Herald). Sale has pitched just twice this season after missing the first three months of the year with a rib fracture.

Boston also placed second baseman Trevor Story on the IL just before the Break, necessitating Sánchez’s call-up. The righty-hitting infielder adds some depth on the dirt, although rookie Jeter Downs looks the favorite for playing time at second base. Sánchez, a former Gold Glove winner with the White Sox, adds a solid defensive specialist to the bench. He’s a career .245/.300/.359 hitter through just under 2500 plate appearances at the big league level.

Sánchez also saw brief action as a COVID substitute earlier this season, appearing in a game during a series in Toronto. That promotion was always temporary, but this call-up represents a permanent addition to the 40-man roster. Boston was able to send the 30-year-old back to Worcester without passing him through waivers last time around, but they’d have to designate him for assignment to remove him from the MLB roster this time. Signed to a minor league deal over the offseason, Sánchez has posted a .247/.377/.413 line with the WooSox, walking in a massive 16.5% of his 303 plate appearances.

Boston had a vacancy on the 40-man roster, so no additional move was necessary to accommodate Sánchez’s promotion. Josh Winckowski is temporarily not counting against the 40-man while on the COVID list; Boston will need to create space to reinstate Wincowski whenever he’s ready to return.

Chris Sale Undergoes Finger Surgery, Could Still Return This Season

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The Red Sox have announced that Chris Sale “underwent an open reduction and internal fixation of a left fifth finger proximal phalanx fracture” today. While the timeline isn’t crystal clear at the moment, the team believes it’s still possible for Sale to return later this year. (Twitter links from Chris Cotillo of MassLive and Chad Jennings of The Athletic.)

Yesterday, Sale had to leave his start against the Yankees without getting out of the first inning after a comebacker struck his pitching hand, clearly injuring it. The Red Sox later announced that his pinky finger, or “left fifth finger,” was broken. After the game, Sale himself said he expected to miss 4-6 weeks, though the fact that surgery was necessary raises the potential that a longer recovery time might be required.

In a lengthier look at the issue, Cotillo speaks to orthopedic surgeon Chris Geary, who believes that Sale won’t even be able to pick up a ball for 4-6 weeks. That means it would be late August before Sale can even begin to throw bullpen sessions, which wouldn’t leave him much time to go on a rehab assignment and get himself back into game shape, especially when considering he had just returned from a different injury. After being diagnosed with a stress fracture in his rib cage in the spring, he missed the first few months of the season and only recently returned, making one healthy start, followed by the start where his finger was broken.

While the club believes Sale can still return at some point, they may have to operate under the assumption that his season is done, at least from a rotation perspective. Ramping up towards shorter stints out of the bullpen wouldn’t take as much time as returning to a full starter’s workload, which would make it easier for Sale to return as a reliever.

The club has been especially snakebit in the rotation lately, with Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, Connor Seabold and Josh Winckowski all landing on the injured list in the past three weeks. With Sale sure to join them, that will leave Boston with a rotation of Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta and Kutter Crawford coming out of the All-Star break. James Paxton is still working his way back from April 2021 Tommy John surgery but has yet to begin a rehab assignment. Garrett Whitlock was in the rotation earlier this year but just returned from his own IL stint as a reliever and isn’t fully stretched out. Prospect Brayan Bello made a couple of starts recently, but allowed nine earned runs in eight innings.

Those struggles in the rotation have coincided with a slide in the standings. Since June 26, they’ve gone 6-14 and slipped to two games back of the Blue Jays for the final American League Wild Card spot. The August 2 trade deadline is now just over two weeks away and they will surely have to consider adding some arms, even if some of their injured hurlers are able to make it back onto the hill. Although, if they slide any further in the coming weeks, it might impact how aggressive they are willing to be.

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