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Chris Paddack

West Injury Notes: Paddack, Gray, Ibanez, Ohtani, Astros

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Padres starter Chris Paddack appears to be ready to come off the IL to start Monday’s game in Arizona, according to Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune. Acee says that Padres manager Jayce Tingler didn’t confirm the plan, but then later listed Paddack as Monday’s starter on Twitter.

For Paddack, his third big league season has been a disappointing one, logging an ERA of 5.13 over 93 innings. That’s a spike from last year’s 4.73 and his 3.33 mark from 2019. His strikeout rate has also gone in the wrong direction. After a solid 26.9% rate in his debut season, it dropped to 23.7% last year and sits at 22.5% so far this year. However, his walk rate has stuck around 5% in every season, which is excellent. (MLB average is 8.7% this year.)

Despite those struggles, the team has certainly missed Paddack. Since the righty went on the shelf July 31st with an oblique issue, the team has been on a disastrous slide. They’ve gone 9-15 so far in the month of August, surrendering the final National League playoff spot to Cincinnati. During that time, the rotation was missing not only Paddack, but also Yu Darvish. They tried to patch over those absences with the addition of Jake Arrieta, only to see him land on the IL himself after just one start of 3 1/3 innings. With Darvish having already returned and Paddack on the way, that could allow the team to steady the ship and finish strong, as they try to retake the Reds over the season’s final weeks.

Other notes from the west…

  • Rockies starter Jon Gray left last night’s start after 48 pitches. Manager Bud Black told reporters, including Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, that the move was precautionary and related to some forearm tightness. Nick Groke of The Athletic gets a bit more granular, explaining that the injured area appears to be away from the ulnar collateral ligament, hopefully negating the worst fears of Rockies fans. Though the extent of the injury remains to be seen, it makes sense for the club to be cautious, as they are 11 games out of a playoff spot. Gray is a free agent at year’s end, but the Rockies are reportedly hoping to sign him to an extension. They will also have to decide on whether or not to issue him a qualifying offer at the end of the season. Gray would surely warrant the offer if he’s healthy. Over 806 2/3 career innings, Gray has an ERA of 4.52 while pitching primarily in the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the league, producing 15.7 fWAR.
  • Rangers infielder Andy Ibanez left last night’s game with left hamstring tightness, per Kennedi Landry of MLB.com. She quotes Rangers manager Chris Woodward as being “not optimistic” about the injury. Regardless of the eventual severity of the injury, the club has every reason to be cautious, as they have one of the worst records in the league and no shot at contending. If this is the end of the season for Ibanez, it will go down as a solid rookie campaign for the 28-year-old. He’s hit .260/.304/.415, wRC+ of 96, while splitting time between first, second and third base, as well as one game in left field.
  • Shohei Ohtani was hit on the hand by a pitch in last night’s game, while serving as the designated hitter. However, he stuck around for the remainder of the contest and x-rays on the hand came back negative. Angels manager Jeff Madden told reporters, including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register, that Ohtani should be fine to make his scheduled start on Tuesday. That is good news for the club and baseball fans in general, as Ohtani is having the most unique and fascinating season that baseball has seen in quite some time, if not ever. He’s currently the MLB home run leader with 41, and has an overall slash line of .264/.363/.623, producing a wRC+ of 160 which is currently bested by only two other qualified hitters. (Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bryce Harper) All of that is combined with Ohtani’s 105 innings in the Angels’ starting rotation with an ERA of 3.00.
  • The Astros could be getting a couple of players back this week. Jose Urquidy is pitching in a rehab game tonight, which could be his last before returning, according to Jake Kaplan of The Athletic. Urquidy has only been able to make 14 starts this season because of injuries but has been excellent when healthy, putting up an ERA of 3.38. It’s unclear who would be bumped from the rotation in his absence, but some have speculated that Luis Garcia could be an option. Garcia has already set a career high in innings pitched this year and has seen his results slip a bit recently. Since July 26th, he has an ERA of 4.22. The club has already moved another young starter, Cristian Javier, to the bullpen as a way to manage his workload. The Astros could also be welcoming Chas McCormick back later this week. General manager James Click told various reporters, including Mark Berman of Fox 26, that the outfielder could be back as soon as Friday. The club hasn’t suffered much in McCormick’s absence, given that Jake Meyers has been manning center field and has been on a tear. Since having his contract selected last month, in the first 20 games of his career, Meyers is slashing .323/.348/.523.

Padres Activate Yu Darvish

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The Padres will activate Yu Darvish to start tonight’s ballgame, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register (via Twitter).

Daniel Camarena has been optioned to Triple-A to create the roster space to add Darvish, the team announced. Camarena served up the game-winning two-run shot to AJ Pollock in the 16th inning of yesterday’s marathon contest. The 28-year-old southpaw has generated more buzz for his work at the plate this season, hitting a grand slam off Max Scherzer in his first career plate appearance. He had an at-bat in last night’s game as well, but he went down swinging.

For his part, Darvish has been out since August 13th with lower back tightness. He has a 3.70 ERA/3.71 FIP in 23 starts covering 131 1/3 innings with a typically strong 29.9 percent strikeout rate, 5.7 percent walk rate, and lower than usual 36.0 percent groundball rate.

The Padres have seen their pitching depth ravaged by injuries this season. If they’re going to stay in the hunt for the second wild card game, Darvish’s healthy return would seem a likely requirement. Chris Paddack could also be on his way back after a successful three-inning simulated game, notes Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

Padres Place Fernando Tatis Jr, Chris Paddack On 10-Day IL

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11:24PM: Season-ending shoulder surgery “would be on the table” for Tatis if he doesn’t show improvement during his 10-day IL stint, Tinger told The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and other reporters.  However, Tatis is intent on playing again this year.

6:01PM: The Padres have placed shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. and right-hander Chris Paddack on the 10-day injured list.  Tatis is on the IL with left shoulder inflammation, after leaving last night’s game with a shoulder problem following a slide into third base.  Paddack has been sidelined with a left oblique strain, and his placement is retroactive to July 28.

In corresponding moves, the Padres also optioned righty Nabil Crismatt to Triple-A while calling up right-handers Miguel Diaz and Reiss Knehr, and newly-acquired outfielder Jake Marisnick was added to the active roster.

This is the second time Tatis’ bothersome left shoulder has sent him to the injured list this season, as he suffered a slight labrum tear back in early April but ended up missing only a minimal amount of time.  Tatis has since missed a couple of games with mild shoulder soreness, but Padres manager Jayce Tingler told Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter links) and other reporters that Tatis’ shoulder was “more sore” in the aftermath of this injury than in his past shoulder aggravations.

According to Acee, there isn’t yet any indication that the Padres are considering shutting Tatis down in the wake of these recurring injuries.  If surgery is the only way to fully correct the problem, that would obviously sideline Tatis for the rest of this season and potentially into 2022, depending on the extent of the procedure and the severity of the shoulder damage.  The fact that Tatis has been able to bounce back multiple times this year and still produce at a superstar level provides some hope that he’ll also be able to recover from this latest setback, though it would seem to appear that Tatis will require more than just the minimum 10 days of recovery time.

There is no way to actually replace Tatis, of course, though San Diego’s acquisition of Adam Frazier last week now looks all the more important.  Jake Cronenworth can slide over to shortstop while Frazier takes over as planned at second base, but that scenario also interrupts the Padres’ initial plan — using Cronenworth at first base and Frazier as a super-utilityman around the diamond, providing cover for and depth behind Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers.  Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar are also on hand as utility options.

Losing Paddack is also no small matter for the Padres, who have been consistently hampered by rotation injuries all season.  San Diego was rumored to be looking at multiple starters prior to the trade deadline, but reliever Daniel Hudson ended up being their only new arm.  Paddack was scheduled to start on Sunday, but the Padres might now turn to Knehr or another option for tomorrow’s game.

Paddack has pitched better (3.92 SIERA) than his 5.13 ERA would indicate, though he has allowed a lot of hard contact.  Perhaps the key stat is 93 innings pitched, as Paddack has been a reliably durable member of the starting staff apart from a 10-day COVID absence early in the season.  The right-hander has a below-average strikeout rate but he has been one of the best at limiting free passes; Paddack’s walk rate is only five percent.

Padres Reinstate Chris Paddack From Injured List

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The Padres are reinstating right-hander Chris Paddack from the COVID-19 injured list to start today’s game against the Giants, the team announced. To create 40-man roster space, outfielder Jorge Oña was transferred to the 60-day IL. Oña underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery earlier this week and is expected to be out for six to eight weeks. Reliever Nabil Crismatt was optioned to clear active roster space.

Paddack went on the Covid IL on April 30, but he’ll return after just ten days away. The 25-year-old made five starts in the season’s first month, managing a 5.40 ERA/4.03 SIERA over 23 1/3 innings. It’s been a disappointing start on the heels of a similarly pedestrian 2020 season that saw Paddack work to a 4.73 ERA/3.91 SIERA in twelve starts.

Of course, there’s still plenty of time for Paddack to right the ship. He boasts a mid-90’s fastball and quality changeup, and Paddack’s 6.7% walk rate is far better than average. He’s also not far removed from a 2018 season when he tossed 140 2/3 innings of 3.33 ERA ball and looked to be emerging as a high-end starter. Paddack will slide back into the star-studded San Diego rotation alongside Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove and Dinelson Lamet.

Latest On Padres Rotation

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After a flurry of offseason acquisitions, the Padres entered the season with arguably one of the deepest pools of rotation candidates in the game. But just a month into the season, even the Padres are already looking at a bullpen game. Miguel Diaz will be the nominal starter today, but the 26-year-old right-hander has been working 3-4 inning stints at the Padres’ alternate site in preparation, writes Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He has appeared in 47 games for the Padres going back to 2017 and only three times as a starter.

In the near term, the Padres are holding out hope that either Ryan Weathers or Dinelson Lamet will be ready to start on Tuesday, adds Acee. Said manager Jayce Tingler, “Both of them were pretty aggressive with their bullpens today and came out reporting feeling well. We think that’s a good step for both guys. We’ll see how they respond tomorrow and go from there.”

Lamet has made just one start his year, going two scoreless before being removed because of forearm soreness. Weathers, 21, was the youngest starting pitcher in baseball, and he’d been nothing short of brilliant before leaving his last start with arm soreness. The young southpaw has a 0.55 ERA/3.23 FIP over 16 1/3 innings combined out of the pen and rotation.

There remains no word on Chris Paddack, who was placed on the injured list without an injury designation. Presumably, that points to something Covid-19-related (be it a positive test, close contact or self-reported symptoms). That could mean a quick turnaround for Paddack as we have seen with a few players this year, but only time will tell. If Paddack isn’t able to return shortly, the Friars hope that Lamet and Weathers could fill out the rotation. Otherwise, Diaz may be in for more than just a spot start.

Padres Place Chris Paddack On IL, Select Miguel Diaz

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The Padres have placed right-hander Chris Paddack on the injured list and selected the contract of fellow righty Miguel Diaz, the team announced.

“I can’t really disclose a lot of information,” manager Jayce Tingler said of Paddack’s IL placement (via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com).

Tingler’s comment suggests Paddack is out for reasons related to COVID-19. Regardless, he’s the latest Padres starter to go on the shelf in the past couple weeks, joining righty Dinelson Lamet (forearm) and lefty Adrian Morejon (Tommy John surgery).

Paddack was a standout for the Padres in his debut campaign, 2019, but hasn’t been able to match his rookie production over the past season-plus. The 25-year-old hasn’t lasted more than 5 1/3 innings in any of his five starts this season, and across 23 1/3 overall frames, he has recorded a disappointing 5.40 ERA. However, some of Paddack’s other numbers – including a 3.22 FIP, a 3.66 xFIP, a 3.98 SIERA and a 6.7 percent walk rate – have been much more favorable.

Diaz, 26, appeared with the Padres in each season from 2017-19, but he could only muster a 6.61 ERA during that 66 2/3-inning stretch. The Padres non-tendered Diaz heading into the 2020 season, but they quickly brought him back on a minor league contract. They re-signed him to another minors deal prior to this season.

When The Padres Fleeced The Marlins

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Padres general manager A.J. Preller’s tenure atop the club’s baseball department certainly hasn’t been a smash success. The Padres hired him late in the 2014 season and haven’t even posted a .500 season since then. To Preller’s credit, though, the Padres have put together an enticing group of young talent with his help. And in one of Preller’s greatest moves to date, the Padres acquired a right-hander who has evolved into a potential ace in exchange for a fading reliever.

If we go back to June 30, 2016, shortly before the trade deadline, the Padres were well under .500 and on their way to a 68-win season. Meanwhile, the Marlins were 41-38. The long-suffering Fish were under the impression they were playoff contenders at that point. As a result, they traded young right-hander Chris Paddack to the Padres for grizzled reliever Fernando Rodney. Big mistake.

After signing for a guaranteed $2MM in the prior offseason, Fernando enjoyed an unbelievable few months in San Diego, where he recorded an almost perfect 0.31 ERA in 28 2/3 innings and converted 17 saves in as many chances. Unsurprisingly, those numbers proved to be impossible to sustain in Miami. As a member of the Marlins, Rodney logged a ghastly 5.89 ERA (thanks in part to 25 walks in just 36 2/3 innings) and blew three of 11 save opportunities. For their part, the Marlins floundered after the trade en route to a 79-82 finish and yet another non-playoff showing. They lost Rodney to the Diamondbacks via free agency in the ensuing offseason.

In hindsight, the Rodney gamble clearly wasn’t worth it for Miami. On the other side, selling high on him has already paid dividends for San Diego and looks as if it will go down as one of the franchise’s top trades in recent memory. In return for Rodney, the Padres received Paddack, then a low minors prospect who Keith Law of The Athletic (then with ESPN) noted when the swap occurred “hasn’t given up a hit in forever.” MLBTR’s Steve Adams observed that “it seems fair to say that his star is on the rise.”

Paddack’s production was indeed ridiculous that year, during which he managed a 0.85 ERA with 15.1 K/9 against 1.1 BB/9 in 42 1/3 innings between the Marlins’ and Padres’ Single-A teams. However, despite those numbers and the aforementioned praise, he wasn’t necessarily viewed as a can’t-miss prospect at the time of the trade. When the deal went down, MLB.com ranked Paddack 17th in a Marlins farm that was not particularly respected.

In August of the year that the trade occurred, Paddack underwent Tommy John surgery. The procedure wound up costing him all of 2017, but he returned the next season to dominate at the High-A and Double-A levels. That was enough to convince the Padres that Paddack was ready for major league action in 2019, and indeed he was. As a 23-year-old pitching in the bigs for the first time, the fiery Paddack tossed 140 2/3 innings of 3.33 ERA/3.96 FIP ball with 9.79 K/9 and 1.98 BB/9 to emerge as one of the brightest up-and-comers in baseball.

For Preller, another 2016 trade – one in which he gave up James Shields for Fernando Tatis Jr. – looks like his most successful move so far. But Paddack for Rodney comes off as a masterstroke in its own right. With Paddack atop their current rotation, and with excellent prospects MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino closing in on the majors, the Padres’ long-term rotation picture appears to be in enviable shape.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Padres Not Playing At Top Of Free Agent Market

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The Padres, along with the Braves, have thus far born the brunt of the burden in stoking the hot stove fire, but San Diego doesn’t anticipate being players at the top of the free agent market, per The San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee. Given the enormity of the task ahead of them – dethroning the Dodgers from their perch atop the NL West – it was natural to assume GM A.J. Preller might go for the hat trick and score another big ticket free agent. Plus, hometown kid and confirmed playoff ace Stephen Strasburg is taking meetings, and the Padres could use a slide-stopping ace to stabilize their young rotation. But alas, the Padres don’t plan on meeting Scott Boras about either Gerrit Cole or Strasburg.

Two nine-figure free agents and the promotions of top prospects like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack could not stop the string of losing season for the Padres in 2019. They stretched their streak to nine while reaching 90 losses for the fourth consecutive year. The good news for Padres fans is that even though they don’t plan on attracting another top tier free agent – help is on the way. Per Acee’s sources, Preller doesn’t feel compelled to sign a top free agent ace is because he is confident in their ability to grow them from the ground up. Both MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino have the potential to join Paddack atop the rotation in the next couple years.

Gore, 21 by Opening Day, made five starts in Double-A after blistering High-A with a 1.02 ERA in 79 1/3 innings. That’s not a typo. The young southpaw gave up just 36 hits, 20 walks, and 9 earned runs while playing for the Lake Elsinore Storm. He struck out 110 batters, good for 12.5 K/9. He is baseball’s 4th best prospect per Baseball America and MLB.com, #5 by Fangraphs.

Patino ranks as the 30th best prospect in the sport by MLB.com, 26th by Fangraphs, 29th by Baseball America. Though eight months younger than Gore, they’re on the same development track as of now. Patino registered a 2.69 ERA in High-A while little more than four years younger than league average.

Needless to say, the future is bright in San Diego, but there are pressing concerns for the present still on the docket. Preller is on the lookout for at least one reliever, potentially a starting catcher, while adding another rotation arm remains in the mix. Financially, it’s tight. They may look to shed some salary in the coming days. The payroll has already climbed north of $140MM. Per Cot’s Contracts, they ran a $97MM payroll on Opening Day last year and only once have they opened a season with a payroll over $100MM (2015).

Report: Paddack, Gore Are “Virtually Untouchable” In Padres’ Trade Talks

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The Padres are more likely to upgrade their roster through trades moreso than free agency this winter, though that hardly means the Friars are open to moving just anyone.  As per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, sources both from within the Padres and on rival teams feel that Chris Paddack and top prospect MacKenzie Gore are “virtually untouchable” within the the Padres’ ranks of young arms.  Right-handed pitching prospect Luis Patino “is just slightly more available than” Paddack or Gore, meaning that San Diego seems unlikely to move any of the three best impact arms in the organization.

It’s no surprise that Paddack is off limits following his impressive rookie season, or that Gore (a consensus top-five prospect in baseball in the eyes of Baseball America, MLB.com, and Fangraphs) isn’t a trade chip.  Patino’s name isn’t as well-known as the others, though he also possesses an impressive pedigree.

An international signing out of Colombia, the 20-year-old Patino has a 2.35 ERA, 10.7 K/9, and 3.49 K/BB rate over 234 innings in pro ball.  He cracked the Double-A level last season, so it wouldn’t be out of the question to see Patino reach the majors by late in the 2020 campaign.  A converted shortstop, Patino has a fastball that usually sits in the mid-90s and has touched the 98mph threshold, while also possessing a plus slider and some very promising breaking pitches.  Fangraphs ranks Patino 26th among all minor leaguers, with BA (29th) and MLB.com (30th) not far behind on their own top-100 lists.

Interest in Patino has grown as other teams are “realizing the Padres won’t part with Gore,” Acee writes, though if Patino is almost surely staying put, trade suitors will likely turn their attention elsewhere in the organization.  To this end, there are still plenty of options available, since “any starting pitcher among [the Padres’] deep trove of highly-rated prospects and young major leaguers can be had as part of a trade package.”

Since Acee wrote over the summer that Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Eric Hosmer are the only position players San Diego is unwilling to trade, that leaves basically anyone else on the organizational depth chart available as a possible trade chip.  Acee’s report came prior to the Padres’ acquisition of Taylor Trammell in the Trevor Bauer/Franmil Reyes deal, so one would imagine that the highly-touted Trammell also won’t be moved.  (And, I would suspect that after two middling seasons from Hosmer, the Padres might be at least willing to listen if another team offered to take the first baseman and his $99MM in remaining salary off San Diego’s hands.)

It leaves the Padres with no shortage of possibilities in figuring out how to upgrade their team, as the franchise enters what could be a pivotal year.  Executive chairman Ron Fowler described the club’s 70-92 season as “embarrassing,” and promised changes if the Padres didn’t improve in 2020.  This puts extra pressure on general manager A.J. Preller to finally end the Friars’ streak of nine consecutive losing seasons.

Padres To Shut Down Chris Paddack

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As expected, the Padres have brought an early end to star rookie Chris Paddack’s season. The right-hander’s start against the Brewers on Tuesday will go down as his last of the year, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.

Paddack concluded his season in excellent fashion, tossing five innings of one-run, one-hit ball with nine strikeouts against a single walk in the Padres’ loss in Milwaukee. It was the fourth straight outstanding performance by the 23-year-old Paddack, who yielded a mere two earned runs and totaled 32 strikeouts versus four walks in his last four appearances – a 23 1/3-inning span.

After joining the Padres in a heist of a trade with the Marlins back in 2016, Paddack quickly rose up the ranks to become one of the game’s most coveted young arms. And though Paddack underwent Tommy John surgery shortly after switching organizations, it’s evident he’s all the way back at this point. The 2015 eighth-round pick amassed a professional-high 140 2/3 frames this year, notching a 3.33 ERA/3.96 FIP with 9.79 K/9 and 1.98 BB/9 in the process.

Now, with San Diego out of contention as the season winds to a close, the team understandably wants to preserve a hurler who could be a front-line starter for the long haul. The Padres’ playoff drought will sit at an embarrassing 13 years after this season, but if they’re going to return to relevance sometime soon, it seems likely Paddack will have quite a bit of say in it.

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