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Red Sox Place Wilyer Abreu, Chris Martin On Injured List

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June 5: The Red Sox announced this morning that Martin has now been placed on the 15-day IL due to anxiety. Kelly has indeed been recalled from Triple-A Worcester.

Martin, 38, has pitched 21 1/3 innings for Boston this season and logged a 4.22 ERA with a 28.2% strikeout rate against an exceptional 2.4% walk rate. He allowed three runs and two of the four homers he’s surrendered all season during his last appearance on May 30. His IL placement is retroactive to June 2, although given the nature of his absence, there’s no way of telling how long he might be away from the team. For now, Martin will understandably take some time to focus on his mental health.

Kelly, 29, will rejoin the Sox after previously posting a 2.16 ERA over 11 appearances (16 2/3 innings) earlier in the season. He’s also fired 10 2/3 scoreless innings in Worcester. Despite those pristine earned run averages, Kelly has battled significant command troubles. He’s walked 20% of his Triple-A opponents this season and 13.9% of his big league opponents. He’ll need to cut down on the free passes if he’s to continue finding this level of success.

June 4, 6:05pm: Per Ian Browne of MLB.com on X, the Sox didn’t make a roster move with the pitchers prior to the game, so Martin is still on the roster while Kelly is not.

3:10pm: The Red Sox announced that they have placed outfielder Wilyer Abreu on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to June 3, due to a right ankle sprain. Catcher Tyler Heineman has been recalled in a corresponding move. Manager Álex Cora announced the Abreu news prior to the official announcement on WEEI’s Jones and Mego, with Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic among those to relay the news on X. Chris Cotillo of MassLive previously reported the Heineman recall on X.

Cora also said, per McCaffrey on X, that outfielder Tyler O’Neill is going to start a rehab assignment with Worcester tonight. The plan is for him to play just one rehab game and then be reinstated tomorrow, though there’s a possibility he stays with Worcester for a second contest. That makes it possible that Heineman’s stay on the active roster will be brief.

Right-hander Zack Kelly is also coming up, per tweets from Cotillo as well as Tommy Cassell of Worcester T&G Sports, though that has not been announced by the club. Right-hander Chris Martin will be placed on the 15-day IL in a corresponding move, per Cotillo on X. The club hasn’t announced a reason for Martin’s IL stint but he has been battling soreness in his non-throwing shoulder this year.

Abreu’s injury is unfortunate for the Sox in many ways, one of which is how his injury came about. The outfielder appeared to hurt himself via a misstep walking down the dugout steps, with video relayed on X by Tyler Milliken, associate producer of Zolak & Bertrand on 98.5 The Sports Hub.

That frustrating injury will rob the Sox of a player who has emerged as a key piece of the club. Since his debut last year, he has taken 274 plate appearances for the Sox. His 26.3% strikeout rate in that time is a bit on the high side but he’s also walked at a 10.2% rate and hit eight home runs. His .286/.358/.482 batting line translates to a wRC+ of 131. He’s also stolen 10 bases and received strong grades for his outfield defense.

He is hoping for a short stint on the IL, per Alex Speier of The Boston Globe on X, saying that an MRI revealed nothing but a lot of inflammation and swelling. But it will nonetheless compound an injury problem that has beset the Boston position player group. Abreu joins O’Neill, Trevor Story, Triston Casas, Vaughn Grissom, Romy González and Masataka Yoshida on the IL. With all of those injuries, Heineman was the only healthy position player not already on the roster.

For today, Jarren Duran, Rob Refsnyder and Bobby Dalbec are in the starting outfield while Ceddanne Rafaela has moved to shortstop. O’Neill will rejoin the outfield rotation in the coming days, as mentioned.

Injury Notes: Rangers, Tigers, Treinen, Martin

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Orthopedic surgeon and Rangers head physician Dr. Keith Meister recently spoke to Ken Rosenthal and Eno Sarris of The Athletic to discuss the increasing number of injuries around the game, which he suggests could be due to the prevalence of sweepers and hard changeups in today’s game. Meister suggested to Rosenthal and Sarris that “spin is worse” than even velocity in terms of its impact on pitcher health, as both of the aforementioned pitches put additional stress on the pitcher’s arm. Rosenthal and Sarris went on to note that Meister shared his findings on the matter with league executives for a study focused on injury prevention, with the league intending to create a task force on the matter once the study is complete.

It seems as though players remain skeptical of the idea that certain breaking balls are creating an injury problem in the league, with Chris McCosky of The Detroit News noting that several Tigers pitchers seemed to hold reservations regarding the concept. Southpaw Tarik Skubal told McCosky that he believes velocity to have “more of a correlation” with injury than specific pitches, while adding that he doesn’t believe “any one thing” has led to the increase in pitcher injuries in recent years. One of the game’s most promising young lefties, Skubal was limited to just 36 starts across the past two seasons by flexor-tendon surgery. For their part, Rosenthal and Sarris note in their own article that many pitchers in the big leagues view injuries as an “occupational hazard” and are unbothered by the spiking injury rates around the game.

Those hurlers aren’t alone in uncertainty regarding Meister’s assertion, with Rosenthal and Sarris pointing out that while Meister suggests that increased grip strength is being used to improve spin rates at the expense of pitcher health, one pitching coach noted that “research is divided” on the correlation between grip strength and spin rates. Regardless of its cause, there’s no doubt that pitchers have been facing more injuries in recent years. Rosenthal and Sarris note that, per Meister, he operated upon around 230 elbow ligaments in 2023 and that this year is “way ahead” of that same pace. Lucas Giolito, Kodai Senga, and Justin Verlander are among the pitchers who have dealt with elbow and shoulder issues this spring, while the likes of Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Shane McClanahan, Brandon Woodruff and Shohei Ohtani are among the many top pitchers who will be sidelined for at least the first half of the 2024 campaign (if not longer) after undergoing surgery last year.

More injury-related notes from around the league…

  • Dodgers right-hander Blake Treinen was struck by a comebacker during today’s spring training game against Texas, with The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya among those to note that the Dodgers diagnosed the issue as a right rib contusion following Treinen’s departure from the game. Treinen is set to undergo both x-rays and a CT scan in the wake of the incident, with manager Dave Roberts indicating to reporters (including Ardaya) that the club will have more information on the right-hander’s status tomorrow. Treinen, 36 in June, has long been among the most talented relievers in the game but has struggled to stay on the field in recent years, pitching just five innings since the end of the 2021 season. Should he remain healthy enough to stay on the mound, he figures to be a key piece of the relief mix in L.A. alongside the likes of Evan Phillips and Brusdar Graterol.
  • Red Sox righty Chris Martin was pulled from a live batting practice session earlier today after a pair of warm-up pitches, with Chris Cotillo of MassLive indicating that, per manager Alex Cora, Martin was suffering from groin tightness. Cora added that the issue had “nothing” to do with Martin’s arm and that the club figures to re-evaluate Martin in the coming days. The soon-to-be 37-year-old hurler is coming off a dominant season on the mound for Boston last year where he posted a 1.05 ERA in 55 appearances. Martin has found his name in the rumor mill this winter as a potential trade candidate, and while it’s possible that the veteran’s groin issue could be a cause of concern for potential suitors, he appears less likely to be moved following the deal that sent fellow set-up option John Schreiber to the Royals and instead seems likely to join fellow veteran trade candidate Kenley Jansen at the back of the Red Sox bullpen to open the year.

Red Sox Remain Open To Offers On Jansen, Martin, Schreiber

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Kenley Jansen has been the subject of trade speculation for a large portion of the offseason. With the Red Sox’s payroll seemingly pushing against ownership’s spending limit, there’s sense in looking to move the four-time All-Star closer. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe wrote this evening that the Sox remain in contact with other teams about a possible Jansen trade before Opening Day.

He isn’t the only Boston reliever who could find himself on the move. MassLive’s Christopher Smith reports that the Sox have also expressed to other clubs they’re willing to field offers on right-handers Chris Martin and John Schreiber.

Of that trio, Jansen probably has the lowest trade value. That’s more a reflection of his contract than an indictment of his performance. Jansen is set for a $16MM salary in the second season of the two-year free agent deal which he signed last winter. That’s a lofty price tag — especially at a point in the offseason in which many teams could be near their own payroll ceilings — but he remains a very effective late-game arm.

Jansen locked down 29 of 33 save opportunities a year ago. He led the National League with 41 saves for the Braves two seasons back. He has allowed between three and four earned runs per nine in each of the past two seasons, including a 3.63 mark over 44 2/3 innings for Boston.

While that is the second-highest ERA of his excellent career, it remains better than average. That’s also the case for last season’s 27.7% strikeout rate, a personal low that nevertheless topped the league mark for relievers by four percentage points. The 36-year-old found some extra life on his trademark cutter. Jansen averaged 94.3 MPH on the pitch, his highest velocity since 2014.

If Boston wanted to maximize the prospect return, they could offer to pay down some portion of Jansen’s salary. That’s a strategy they took in the Chris Sale deal, sending $17MM to the Braves to convince Atlanta to relinquish Vaughn Grissom. Smith reports that they’re less keen to do so with Jansen, writing that they’ve been reluctant to include cash to facilitate a trade.

That wouldn’t be as significant an obstacle regarding Martin (and certainly not with Schreiber). The former, like Jansen, signed a two-year free agent deal last offseason. While Jansen had a solid first season at Fenway Park, Martin was downright excellent. He turned in a microscopic 1.05 ERA over 51 1/3 innings. His 23.1% strikeout rate was solid and he kept the ball on the ground at a 51% clip. Martin continues to boast perhaps the best control of any reliever in the game. He walked just 4% of opponents a year ago and hasn’t handed out free passes at even a 5% rate in any of the last six seasons.

Boston owes Martin a $7.5MM salary for the upcoming campaign. He’s also set to receive the final $1.5MM of a $4MM signing bonus in June. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, that’s a little below the $9-11MM annual salaries secured this offseason by high-end setup relievers like Robert Stephenson, Héctor Neris, Jordan Hicks and Reynaldo López (the final two of whom will compete for rotation spots). Martin turns 38 in June, but the one-year commitment minimizes long-term downside. His fastball averaged 95.7 MPH last season, right in line with where it has sat throughout his career.

Schreiber, who turns 30 next month, is in a different spot contractually. He’s under arbitration control for three seasons. He and the Sox agreed to a modest $1.175MM salary for the upcoming campaign. The righty was a revelation two years ago, turning in a 2.22 ERA while fanning nearly 29% of opponents. His ’23 campaign wasn’t quite as impressive. Schreiber missed two months early in the year with a teres major strain in his throwing shoulder. He returned in July but worked with sightly diminished velocity relative to the prior season.

In 46 2/3 frames, he turned in a 3.86 ERA. Schreiber punched out a solid 26% of opponents, although his walk rate spiked from 7.4% to an alarming 12.3% clip. While his low arm angle remained a very tough look for right-handed hitters, lefty batters teed off for a .300/.456/.533 line in 79 plate appearances.

Moving Schrieber certainly wouldn’t be about finances. Considering offers on him (or Martin, to a lesser extent) seems more of a broad openness by chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and the front office to consider opportunities that could balance the roster. Boston is still looking for right-handed hitting outfield help and could use additional certainty out of the rotation.

Poll: Should The Red Sox Trade Kenley Jansen?

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The payroll has become a topic of conversation for the Red Sox. Despite chairman Tom Werner’s “full throttle” comments earlier in the offseason, CEO Sam Kennedy recently admitted that this year’s payroll will probably be lower than last year’s. It was reported last month by Chris Cotillo of MassLive that the club could look to shed some more payroll in order to improve their ability to pursue their free agent targets.

Per Roster Resource, the club’s payroll currently sits at $178MM. It hasn’t been that low in a full season since 2014, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but it seems the pursestrings are getting tight nonetheless. The club has been connected to some big name free agents that are still available, such as Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, but perhaps they need to free up a bit of cash before they can earnestly pursue any of those. More affordable options would include Mike Clevinger, Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu and others.

Cotillo’s report identifies Kenley Jansen as a possible candidate for such a salary-clearing deal, which is a logical fit. He signed a two-year, $32MM deal with the Sox last offseason, with even salaries of $16MM in each campaign. His first season in Boston was solid, though not spectacular. He recorded 29 saves in 33 chances, posting an earned run average of 3.63 on the year. His 27.7% strikeout rate was above league average but the lowest single-season mark in his career. The club has reportedly received trade interest in him.

With the Chris Sale deal, the club flipped the soon-to-be-35-year-old for a younger second baseman in Vaughn Grissom while effectively replacing Sale by signing Lucas Giolito. Perhaps the club is thinking of a similar path with the bullpen, as they have been connected to relievers like Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson, though those two have now signed with other clubs. With Jansen now 36 years old, they could perhaps exchange him for whatever the market will bear, then pivot to a younger arm to bolster the relief corps.

They could also consider replacing him internally with someone like Chris Martin, though there would also be some logic to consider trading him as well. He was signed to a two-year, $17.5MM deal last offseason, with $9MM of that still to be paid out. Per the Associated Press, he’ll make a $7.5MM salary this year and a $1.5MM payment of his $4MM signing bonus is scheduled for June.

Martin, 38 in June, is coming off a dominant season in a setup role. He posted an ERA of 1.05 in 55 appearances, racking up 23 holds in the process. He struck out 23.1% of opponents, walked just 4% of them and got grounders at a 51% clip. Martin’s never really been a closer in the majors, with just 12 career saves, though he did have a 21-save season while pitching in Japan in 2016.

Similar to the logic with Sale and Jansen, perhaps the club would consider making Martin available on the trade market and then replacing him with a younger free agent. Or perhaps they would like to trade one, keep one in the closer’s role and use the saved money to further address their rotation.

The relief pitching market has recently started to move, with many dominoes falling of late. In addition to Hicks and Stephenson, Josh Hader, Aroldis Chapman and Matt Moore have come off the board in the past little bit. That leaves David Robertson, Ryan Brasier, Phil Maton, Héctor Neris, Adam Ottavino, Wandy Peralta and Brad Hand as some of the best bullpen options still available. With the market getting thinner, perhaps the Sox can flip Jansen and/or Martin, then use the money saved to address their rotation.

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently identified the club’s rotation locks as Giolito, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and Nick Pivetta, with Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck, Josh Winckowski, Cooper Criswell and Max Castillo among the options for the back end and depth jobs.

What do you think? Should the Sox subtract from the bullpen in order to upgrade the club in other ways? If so, who should they move? Have your say in the poll below!

Gerrit Cole Wins American League Cy Young Award

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As expected, Gerrit Cole is the 2023 Cy Young winner in the American League. The Baseball Writers Association of America announced the Yankee star has won the award. Former Minnesota right-hander Sonny Gray was the runner-up, while Toronto’s Kevin Gausman took home third place.

There wasn’t a ton of intrigue, as Cole received all 30 first-place votes. While he’s a six-time All-Star and two-time ERA champion, this is his first career Cy Young. No AL pitcher topped Cole’s 209 innings, while he led Junior Circuit pitchers (minimum 150 innings) with a 2.63 ERA. He was sixth among that group with a 27% strikeout rate and trailed only Gausman and Pablo López with 222 punchouts overall.

That well-rounded dominance made Cole an easy call as the AL’s best pitcher in the eyes of voters. It’s his sixth top five finish and the third time he has been a finalist, as he’d twice before finished as runner-up. Having at least one Cy Young on his résumé could go a long way towards burnishing an eventual Hall of Fame case.

For now, the 33-year-old will look to replicate this year’s success in hopes of leading the Yankees back to the postseason. Despite Cole turning in one of the best seasons of his career, New York floundered midseason and finished barely above .500. Cole will be in the Bronx for at least one more year. He’s headed into year five of a nine-year, $324MM free agent contract. He has the ability to opt out after next season.

Gray received 20 second-place votes to earn the highest Cy Young finish of his career. It was well timed for the three-time All-Star, who hit free agency a couple weeks ago. Gausman secured seven second-place votes and was the most common selection for third. Stray second-place votes went to Luis Castillo and Zach Eflin, although Baltimore’s Kyle Bradish edged out that duo for fourth in overall balloting.

Others to receive at least one vote: López, George Kirby, Framber Valdez, Chris Bassitt, Félix Bautista and Chris Martin. The full results are available at the BBWAA website.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

AL East Notes: Volpe, Martin, Siri

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It’s been an up-and-down rookie season for Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe, who made the Opening Day roster and has stuck as the club’s everyday shortstop despite offensive struggles. Overall, he’s slashed .207/.283/.383 in 587 plate appearances this year while manning shortstop in 153 of the club’s games so far this year. Defensive metrics disagree on his glovework this year, with Statcast’s Fielding Run Value placing Volpe tenth among fifteen shortstops with at least 1,000 innings of work with a +1 figure, while Fielding Bible’s Defensive Runs Saved places him behind only Dansby Swanson in that same group.

According to SNY’s Andy Martino, the Yankees are pondering Volpe’s role headed into the 2024 season thanks to Oswald Peraza, who scouting reports typically grade as the superior defensive shortstop of the two, with Martino suggesting the club’s best defensive alignment involves Volpe at second base with Peraza at shortstop. Perhaps the biggest obstacle to such a change would be Gleyber Torres, the club’s incumbent second baseman. Torres has no defensive experience outside of the middle infield, but has been the club’s best hitter in 2023 this side of Aaron Judge with a solid .272/.345/.455 slash line.

Given Torres’s importance to the club this year, it’s hard to imagine the Yankees displacing him to accommodate Peraza, who has yet to establish himself with the bat in the majors. After all, Peraza has slashed just .194/.275/.275 in 178 trips to the plate in the majors this year, though his .268/.357/.479 slash line in 300 Triple-A plate appearances this year could indicate another level to the 23-year-old youngster’s game.

More from around the AL East…

  • Prior to today’s game in Baltimore, the Red Sox placed veteran right-hander Chris Martin on the 15-day injured list with a viral infection. Right-hander Nick Robertson was recalled in a corresponding move. The move closes the book on what has been a sensational season for Martin after he signed with the Red Sox on a two-year, $17.5MM deal this past offseason. In 51 1/3 innings of work this year, Martin sports an astonishing 1.05 ERA that leads the majors among pitchers with at least 30 innings of work, just barely edging out Josh Hader’s 1.16 figure. Martin figures to be a key piece of the Boston bullpen headed into the 2024 campaign.
  • The Rays received good news yesterday regarding center fielder Jose Siri, according to MLB.com. Siri, who suffered a fractured right hand after being hit by a pitch earlier this month, underwent imaging earlier this week and received encouraging results, with manager Kevin Cash indicating that Siri could resume baseball activities as soon as today in an effort to return to the club this postseason. Siri has combined excellent outfield defense with a solid bat this season, slashing .222/.267/.494 with 25 home runs in 364 trips to the plate.

Red Sox Likely To Activate Chris Martin From 15-Day IL On Sunday

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Chris Martin looks to be on the verge of a return to the Red Sox bullpen, as manager Alex Cora told reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe) that the reliever will likely be activated from the 15-day injured list prior to Sunday’s game with the Guardians.  The corresponding move has already been made, as the Boston Globe’s Julian McWilliams reports that right-hander Kaleb Ort has been optioned to Triple-A.

The Sox retroactively placed Martin on the 15-day IL back on April 13, so he’ll return to the field in just slightly more than the minimum 15 days.  Right shoulder inflammation sidelined Martin, but an MRI revealed no structure damage, and it seems as though Martin’s discomfort subsided in relatively quick fashion.  It’s possible he might have been back exactly after 15 days, were it not for a stomach bug that delayed his appearance in a Triple-A rehab outing.  Martin finally took the hill on Friday, and assuming that he doesn’t report any setbacks prior to tomorrow’s game, the Red Sox will reinstate the veteran righty.

Martin signed a two-year, $17.5MM free agent deal with the Sox in December, after posting strong numbers with four different teams (the Rangers, Braves, Cubs, and Dodger) from 2019-22.  With a 2.57 ERA over his first seven innings with Boston, Martin looked to be continuing that trend, though he had an uncharacteristically low two strikeouts over those seven frames.

Ort has struggled to a 7.30 ERA over 12 1/3 relief innings this season, including a rough performance on April 25 that saw him allow five runs (four earned) over just one-third of an inning against the Orioles.  Inserting Martin in Ort’s place will certainly help Boston’s relief corps, and Martin’s experience in high-leverage situations will be particularly useful if there’s any uncertainty over Kenley Jansen’s health status.  Jansen battled some back stiffness during today’s game, as the closer blew his first save of the season and labored through 29 pitches during his inning of work.

Red Sox Select Jake Faria, Place Chris Martin On 15-Day IL

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10:38PM: There are “no red flags as far as structure” to Martin’s shoulder, manager Alex Cora told MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo and other reporters.  The Red Sox are hopeful that Martin might be facing just a minimal 15-day absence.

12:12PM: The Red Sox announced a series of roster moves this afternoon, placing right-hander Chris Martin on the 15-day IL (retroactive to Thursday) with right shoulder inflammation. To replace Martin on the active roster, the club has selected the contract of right-hander Jake Faria from Triple-A. To clear a 40-man roster spot for Faria, the club has transferred right-hander Wyatt Mills, who is suffering from right elbow inflammation, to the 60-day IL.

Martin debuted with the Rockies back in 2014, but struggled to a 6.19 ERA in the first two seasons of his big league career before departing for Japan, where he dominated in the NPB to the tune of a 1.12 ERA in 88 1/3 innings of work. That performance earned him another shot in the big leagues, where he’s been a successful setup man ever since. Since the start of the 2018 season, Martin has posted a 3.41 ERA (135 ERA+) with a 3.06 FIP in 221 2/3 innings of work.

While his top-level run prevention numbers last season left something to be desired in the beginning of his season as a member of the Cubs, his 4.31 ERA in his 31 1/3 innings as a Cub were inflated by a .393 BABIP. Underlying metrics saw him strike out 30.1% of batters while walking just 3%, leaving him with a 3.01 FIP during his time with in Chicago. Those strong underlying stats manifested in a dominant stretch run following a midseason trade to the Dodgers: in 24 2/3 innings in Dodger blue, Martin posted a fantastic 1.46 ERA with a microscopic 1.13 FIP.

That left Martin entering free agency with a 3.05 ERA, 2.18 FIP, 32.9% strikeout rate, and 2.2% walk rate in 2022. Those numbers were strong enough to net him a two-year, $17.5MM deal with the Red Sox, where he figured to slot into the back of the Boston bullpen alongside fellow offseason signing Kenley Jansen. Those plans will now be put on hold for awhile, however, with Martin headed to the IL. No timetable has been announced for his return. While Martin is on the IL, John Schreiber and Josh Winckowski figure to handle late-inning duties alongside Jansen.

With Martin on the shelf, the Red Sox turn to Faria. The 29 year old did not pitch in the majors in 2022, though he has a career 4.70 ERA (90 ERA+) with a matching 4.74 FIP in 203 big league innings with a 20.9% strikeout rate a 10% walk rate. After spending 2022 in the minors with the Twins, where he struggled to a 7.48 ERA in 43 1/3 innings of work, Faria signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox back in February.

Mills was acquired from the Royals in a trade this winter, but was shut down last month with elbow inflammation. He has a career 6.21 ERA in 42 big league innings, albeit with a much more palatable 3.84 FIP.

Red Sox To Sign Chris Martin To Two-Year Deal

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December 8: Robert Murray of FanSided provides the specific contract breakdown. Martin will make $6MM in 2023 and $7.5MM in 2024, in addition to a $4MM signing bonus.

December 2: The Red Sox and reliever Chris Martin are in agreement on a two-year deal, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. The deal is pending a physical and will be worth $17.5MM.

Martin, 37 in June, has had one of the more unique baseball trajectories. As detailed in this 2019 piece from Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Martin had shoulder surgery in 2006 that he thought was the end of his career. Years later, he was working for Lowe’s and UPS and discovered during a game of catch with friends that his shoulder didn’t bother him anymore.

He got back onto the mound and worked his way to the big leagues, pitching a couple of seasons in 2014 and 2015 before heading to Japan for 2016 and 2017. He returned to the majors for 2018 and has spent the past five seasons as an effective middle reliever with perhaps the best control in the league. Martin has walked just 2.8% of batters faced in that time, the best such rate of any pitcher with at least 200 innings pitched.

This year was no exception. He began the year by signing a one-year deal with the Cubs for $2.5MM plus incentives. Through 31 1/3 innings in Chicago, his ERA was an unimpressive 4.31 but with much stronger peripherals. His 30.1% strikeout rate, 3% walk rate and 52.3% ground ball rate were all much better than league average. However, his ERA was being inflated by a .393 batting average on balls in play and by 20.8% of his fly balls allowed leaving the yard.

The Dodgers believed some regression was due and sent Zach McKinstry to the Cubs in order to install Martin in their bullpen down the stretch. The results were utterly dominant, as Martin pitched to a 1.46 ERA, striking out 37% of batters faced while walking just 1.1%. He also added another two innings of postseason work without issuing a walk.

Based on that strong season, MLBTR predicted he could secure a two-year, $14MM deal, but Martin has nudged past that by a few million. The relief market has been quite strong so far this winter, with Martin and Rafael Montero both beating their predictions by healthy margins.

The bullpen was a weak spot for Boston in 2022, as their relievers posted a collective ERA of 4.59, 26th in the majors. They also lost one of their effective members to free agency in Matt Strahm. They’ve since made moves to try and bolster the relief corps by singing Joely Rodriguez and now Martin. Assuming the money is evenly distributed in two instalments of $8.75MM, Roster Resource has their 2023 payroll currently at $142MM with a competitive balance tax calculation of $161MM.

The Opener: Winter Meetings, Relief Market, HOF

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Here’s what we’re keeping an eye on to wrap up the week…

1. Winter Meetings start this weekend

The Winter Meetings should see a thaw to the frigid hot stove thus far, and the glacial pace with which the offseason has moved should quicken. The annual meetings take place in San Diego this year between Dec. 4-7 and will bring key baseball operations leaders from all 30 teams, agents and media into one place. Several reports have suggested that AL MVP Aaron Judge could make his decision there, which could help to set the star-studded shortstop market in motion. It’ll also be interesting if top starters Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodon find deals. There could well be blockbuster trades as well, with Oakland catcher Sean Murphy among the likeliest players to be moved this offseason. It’s not just deals either; on the 6th we’ll see the first MLB draft lottery, and that’ll be followed by the Rule 5 Draft on the 7th.

2. Relief market set to move?

It certainly seems so, according to ESPN’s Buster Olney. He reports a “sense among some execs that a wave of second-tier is moving fast and on the cusp of landing deals”, citing the likes of Chris Martin and Miguel Castro as players in that group. Martin snuck onto MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents in 47th place, with a predicted deal of two-years, $14MM. As always, there’s plenty of options in middle-relief. Beyond Martin and Castro, the likes of Seth Lugo, Adam Ottavino, Andrew Chafin, Michael Fulmer, Corey Knebel and Mychal Givens (among many others) remain unsigned at this point.

3. Hall of Fame results coming

On Sunday, the 16-member Contemporary Baseball Era Hall of Fame Committee will vote on eight former big league players to be inducted into the Hall of Fame next summer. The contemporary era comprises players who contributed to the game between 1980 and the present day. The eight players are Albert Belle, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Dale Murphy, Rafael Palmeiro and Curt Schilling. Players who receive more than 75% of the vote from the committee will be slated for induction into Cooperstown next July. This announcement runs separate to the usual Baseball Writers’ Association of America Hall of Fame voting, which will be revealed in January.

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