Chris Martin

AL East Notes: Volpe, Martin, Siri

By Nick Deeds | September 28, 2023 at 10:38pm CDT

It’s been an up-and-down rookie season for Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe, who made the Opening Day roster and has stuck as the club’s everyday shortstop despite offensive struggles. Overall, he’s slashed .207/.283/.383 in 587 plate appearances this year while manning shortstop in 153 of the club’s games so far this year. Defensive metrics disagree on his glovework this year, with Statcast’s Fielding Run Value placing Volpe tenth among fifteen shortstops with at least 1,000 innings of work with a +1 figure, while Fielding Bible’s Defensive Runs Saved places him behind only Dansby Swanson in that same group.

According to SNY’s Andy Martino, the Yankees are pondering Volpe’s role headed into the 2024 season thanks to Oswald Peraza, who scouting reports typically grade as the superior defensive shortstop of the two, with Martino suggesting the club’s best defensive alignment involves Volpe at second base with Peraza at shortstop. Perhaps the biggest obstacle to such a change would be Gleyber Torres, the club’s incumbent second baseman. Torres has no defensive experience outside of the middle infield, but has been the club’s best hitter in 2023 this side of Aaron Judge with a solid .272/.345/.455 slash line.

Given Torres’s importance to the club this year, it’s hard to imagine the Yankees displacing him to accommodate Peraza, who has yet to establish himself with the bat in the majors. After all, Peraza has slashed just .194/.275/.275 in 178 trips to the plate in the majors this year, though his .268/.357/.479 slash line in 300 Triple-A plate appearances this year could indicate another level to the 23-year-old youngster’s game.

More from around the AL East…

Prior to today’s game in Baltimore, the Red Sox placed veteran right-hander Chris Martin on the 15-day injured list with a viral infection. Right-hander Nick Robertson was recalled in a corresponding move. The move closes the book on what has been a sensational season for Martin after he signed with the Red Sox on a two-year, $17.5MM deal this past offseason. In 51 1/3 innings of work this year, Martin sports an astonishing 1.05 ERA that leads the majors among pitchers with at least 30 innings of work, just barely edging out Josh Hader’s 1.16 figure. Martin figures to be a key piece of the Boston bullpen headed into the 2024 campaign.
The Rays received good news yesterday regarding center fielder Jose Siri, according to MLB.com. Siri, who suffered a fractured right hand after being hit by a pitch earlier this month, underwent imaging earlier this week and received encouraging results, with manager Kevin Cash indicating that Siri could resume baseball activities as soon as today in an effort to return to the club this postseason. Siri has combined excellent outfield defense with a solid bat this season, slashing .222/.267/.494 with 25 home runs in 364 trips to the plate.

Red Sox Likely To Activate Chris Martin From 15-Day IL On Sunday

By Mark Polishuk | April 29, 2023 at 8:15pm CDT

Chris Martin looks to be on the verge of a return to the Red Sox bullpen, as manager Alex Cora told reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe) that the reliever will likely be activated from the 15-day injured list prior to Sunday’s game with the Guardians. The corresponding move has already been made, as the Boston Globe’s Julian McWilliams reports that right-hander Kaleb Ort has been optioned to Triple-A.

The Sox retroactively placed Martin on the 15-day IL back on April 13, so he’ll return to the field in just slightly more than the minimum 15 days. Right shoulder inflammation sidelined Martin, but an MRI revealed no structure damage, and it seems as though Martin’s discomfort subsided in relatively quick fashion. It’s possible he might have been back exactly after 15 days, were it not for a stomach bug that delayed his appearance in a Triple-A rehab outing. Martin finally took the hill on Friday, and assuming that he doesn’t report any setbacks prior to tomorrow’s game, the Red Sox will reinstate the veteran righty.

Martin signed a two-year, $17.5MM free agent deal with the Sox in December, after posting strong numbers with four different teams (the Rangers, Braves, Cubs, and Dodger) from 2019-22. With a 2.57 ERA over his first seven innings with Boston, Martin looked to be continuing that trend, though he had an uncharacteristically low two strikeouts over those seven frames.

Ort has struggled to a 7.30 ERA over 12 1/3 relief innings this season, including a rough performance on April 25 that saw him allow five runs (four earned) over just one-third of an inning against the Orioles. Inserting Martin in Ort’s place will certainly help Boston’s relief corps, and Martin’s experience in high-leverage situations will be particularly useful if there’s any uncertainty over Kenley Jansen’s health status. Jansen battled some back stiffness during today’s game, as the closer blew his first save of the season and labored through 29 pitches during his inning of work.

Red Sox Select Jake Faria, Place Chris Martin On 15-Day IL

By Nick Deeds | April 16, 2023 at 10:38pm CDT

10:38PM: There are “no red flags as far as structure” to Martin’s shoulder, manager Alex Cora told MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo and other reporters. The Red Sox are hopeful that Martin might be facing just a minimal 15-day absence.

12:12PM: The Red Sox announced a series of roster moves this afternoon, placing right-hander Chris Martin on the 15-day IL (retroactive to Thursday) with right shoulder inflammation. To replace Martin on the active roster, the club has selected the contract of right-hander Jake Faria from Triple-A. To clear a 40-man roster spot for Faria, the club has transferred right-hander Wyatt Mills, who is suffering from right elbow inflammation, to the 60-day IL.

Martin debuted with the Rockies back in 2014, but struggled to a 6.19 ERA in the first two seasons of his big league career before departing for Japan, where he dominated in the NPB to the tune of a 1.12 ERA in 88 1/3 innings of work. That performance earned him another shot in the big leagues, where he’s been a successful setup man ever since. Since the start of the 2018 season, Martin has posted a 3.41 ERA (135 ERA+) with a 3.06 FIP in 221 2/3 innings of work.

While his top-level run prevention numbers last season left something to be desired in the beginning of his season as a member of the Cubs, his 4.31 ERA in his 31 1/3 innings as a Cub were inflated by a .393 BABIP. Underlying metrics saw him strike out 30.1% of batters while walking just 3%, leaving him with a 3.01 FIP during his time with in Chicago. Those strong underlying stats manifested in a dominant stretch run following a midseason trade to the Dodgers: in 24 2/3 innings in Dodger blue, Martin posted a fantastic 1.46 ERA with a microscopic 1.13 FIP.

That left Martin entering free agency with a 3.05 ERA, 2.18 FIP, 32.9% strikeout rate, and 2.2% walk rate in 2022. Those numbers were strong enough to net him a two-year, $17.5MM deal with the Red Sox, where he figured to slot into the back of the Boston bullpen alongside fellow offseason signing Kenley Jansen. Those plans will now be put on hold for awhile, however, with Martin headed to the IL. No timetable has been announced for his return. While Martin is on the IL, John Schreiber and Josh Winckowski figure to handle late-inning duties alongside Jansen.

With Martin on the shelf, the Red Sox turn to Faria. The 29 year old did not pitch in the majors in 2022, though he has a career 4.70 ERA (90 ERA+) with a matching 4.74 FIP in 203 big league innings with a 20.9% strikeout rate a 10% walk rate. After spending 2022 in the minors with the Twins, where he struggled to a 7.48 ERA in 43 1/3 innings of work, Faria signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox back in February.

Mills was acquired from the Royals in a trade this winter, but was shut down last month with elbow inflammation. He has a career 6.21 ERA in 42 big league innings, albeit with a much more palatable 3.84 FIP.

Red Sox To Sign Chris Martin To Two-Year Deal

By Darragh McDonald | December 8, 2022 at 6:20pm CDT

December 8: Robert Murray of FanSided provides the specific contract breakdown. Martin will make $6MM in 2023 and $7.5MM in 2024, in addition to a $4MM signing bonus.

December 2: The Red Sox and reliever Chris Martin are in agreement on a two-year deal, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. The deal is pending a physical and will be worth $17.5MM.

Martin, 37 in June, has had one of the more unique baseball trajectories. As detailed in this 2019 piece from Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Martin had shoulder surgery in 2006 that he thought was the end of his career. Years later, he was working for Lowe’s and UPS and discovered during a game of catch with friends that his shoulder didn’t bother him anymore.

He got back onto the mound and worked his way to the big leagues, pitching a couple of seasons in 2014 and 2015 before heading to Japan for 2016 and 2017. He returned to the majors for 2018 and has spent the past five seasons as an effective middle reliever with perhaps the best control in the league. Martin has walked just 2.8% of batters faced in that time, the best such rate of any pitcher with at least 200 innings pitched.

This year was no exception. He began the year by signing a one-year deal with the Cubs for $2.5MM plus incentives. Through 31 1/3 innings in Chicago, his ERA was an unimpressive 4.31 but with much stronger peripherals. His 30.1% strikeout rate, 3% walk rate and 52.3% ground ball rate were all much better than league average. However, his ERA was being inflated by a .393 batting average on balls in play and by 20.8% of his fly balls allowed leaving the yard.

The Dodgers believed some regression was due and sent Zach McKinstry to the Cubs in order to install Martin in their bullpen down the stretch. The results were utterly dominant, as Martin pitched to a 1.46 ERA, striking out 37% of batters faced while walking just 1.1%. He also added another two innings of postseason work without issuing a walk.

Based on that strong season, MLBTR predicted he could secure a two-year, $14MM deal, but Martin has nudged past that by a few million. The relief market has been quite strong so far this winter, with Martin and Rafael Montero both beating their predictions by healthy margins.

The bullpen was a weak spot for Boston in 2022, as their relievers posted a collective ERA of 4.59, 26th in the majors. They also lost one of their effective members to free agency in Matt Strahm. They’ve since made moves to try and bolster the relief corps by singing Joely Rodriguez and now Martin. Assuming the money is evenly distributed in two instalments of $8.75MM, Roster Resource has their 2023 payroll currently at $142MM with a competitive balance tax calculation of $161MM.

The Opener: Winter Meetings, Relief Market, HOF

By Simon Hampton | December 2, 2022 at 8:42am CDT

Here’s what we’re keeping an eye on to wrap up the week…

1. Winter Meetings start this weekend

The Winter Meetings should see a thaw to the frigid hot stove thus far, and the glacial pace with which the offseason has moved should quicken. The annual meetings take place in San Diego this year between Dec. 4-7 and will bring key baseball operations leaders from all 30 teams, agents and media into one place. Several reports have suggested that AL MVP Aaron Judge could make his decision there, which could help to set the star-studded shortstop market in motion. It’ll also be interesting if top starters Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodon find deals. There could well be blockbuster trades as well, with Oakland catcher Sean Murphy among the likeliest players to be moved this offseason. It’s not just deals either; on the 6th we’ll see the first MLB draft lottery, and that’ll be followed by the Rule 5 Draft on the 7th.

2. Relief market set to move?

It certainly seems so, according to ESPN’s Buster Olney. He reports a “sense among some execs that a wave of second-tier is moving fast and on the cusp of landing deals”, citing the likes of Chris Martin and Miguel Castro as players in that group. Martin snuck onto MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents in 47th place, with a predicted deal of two-years, $14MM. As always, there’s plenty of options in middle-relief. Beyond Martin and Castro, the likes of Seth Lugo, Adam Ottavino, Andrew Chafin, Michael Fulmer, Corey Knebel and Mychal Givens (among many others) remain unsigned at this point.

3. Hall of Fame results coming

On Sunday, the 16-member Contemporary Baseball Era Hall of Fame Committee will vote on eight former big league players to be inducted into the Hall of Fame next summer. The contemporary era comprises players who contributed to the game between 1980 and the present day. The eight players are Albert Belle, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Dale Murphy, Rafael Palmeiro and Curt Schilling. Players who receive more than 75% of the vote from the committee will be slated for induction into Cooperstown next July. This announcement runs separate to the usual Baseball Writers’ Association of America Hall of Fame voting, which will be revealed in January.

Quick Hits: Astros, Blue Jays, Martin, Robertson, Suarez, Giants, Pirates

By Mark Polishuk | November 12, 2022 at 10:39pm CDT

The Astros are making a pair of in-house promotions, as FOX 26’s Mark Berman reports (via Twitter) that Charles Cook and Bill Firkus are each being promoted to assistant general manager. Cook was the senior director of player evaluation and has been a member of the organization since 2016, while Firkus has been with the Astros since 2013, taking a unique path to the assistant GM role. Firkus began with the team as a medical analyst and then worked as the Astros’ director of sports medicine and performance from 2015-19 before moving into his job as the senior director of baseball strategy.

Firkus and fellow assistant GM Andrew Ball are also now temporarily running Houston’s front office until a replacement for James Click can be found, according to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). Under Click, the Astros had two AGMs in Ball and Scott Powers, though Powers was fired yesterday shortly after news broke that Click wouldn’t be returning as the general manager. It is possible that the promotions of two long-time employees in Cook and Firkus might be a step towards also ousting Ball, who previously worked with Click in Tampa Bay and has only been with the Astros organization for less than a year. Regardless, there will continue to be plenty of controversy surrounding the World Series champions’ front office until a new president of baseball operations or GM is officially hired. [UPDATE: Firkus is the Astros’ current point person for any free agent talks, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi]

Dodgers Remove Craig Kimbrel From Closer Role

By Anthony Franco | September 23, 2022 at 10:59pm CDT

The Dodgers are going to take a closer-by-comittee approach for the remainder of the regular season, manager Dave Roberts informed reporters (including Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). Craig Kimbrel will pitch in different roles while the club takes a variable approach to the ninth inning based on matchups.

Roberts didn’t guarantee he’d stick with the committee approach through the playoffs, although it’s hard to envision the Dodgers removing Kimbrel from the closing role for the final 12 regular season games before reinstalling him in the ninth at the start of the postseason. The decision comes in the wake of a dip in production for the eight-time All-Star, who has surrendered runs in three of his last four outings. That includes a game-tying homer to Christian Walker to blow a save opportunity yesterday against the Diamondbacks. The Dodgers walked off in the bottom of the ninth inning anyhow, but the blown lead finalized the team’s decision to take a more flexible approach with the playoffs on the horizon.

Kimbrel is in his first season as a Dodger. Acquired from the White Sox in a surprising one-for-one swap with AJ Pollock just before Opening Day, he’s made 57 appearances. Kimbrel certainly hasn’t been disastrous. He owns a 4.14 ERA across 54 1/3 innings, striking out an above-average 27.2% of opponents. His 9.6% walk rate is a bit higher than the league mark but not an untenable figure. He has successfully closed out 22 of his 27 save attempts. The right-hander’s overall production has been fine if unspectacular.

Nevertheless, Kimbrel clearly hasn’t performed at the level at which the Dodgers were hoping. The 34-year-old was arguably the best reliever in the game through last season’s first half with the Cubs. While he disappointed following a deadline trade to the White Sox — largely due to home run troubles — he still generated whiffs on an excellent 17.2% of his offerings with the South Siders. That led to some hope Kimbrel could continue pitching at an elite level in a new environment, but this season’s 12.1% swinging strike rate is only a bit better than average.

Taking Kimbrel out of the ninth inning should allow Roberts to be more judicious with his usage once the postseason arrives. Maximizing his work against right-handed hitters figures to be a priority. Kimbrel has held same-handed batters to a .208/.296/.307 line across 115 plate appearances this season; lefties, on the other hand, have managed a much more robust .266/.355/.431 showing in 124 trips.

The White Sox picked up a $16MM option on Kimbrel for this season before trading him to L.A. He’s in the final few weeks of that deal and will hit free agency for the second time in his career this offseason. In the interim, he’ll remain part of one of the game’s top relief corps.

That the Dodgers feel equipped to take the career-long closer out of the ninth inning is a testament to the strength of the remainder of their bullpen. Los Angeles enters play Friday with the majors’ second-lowest bullpen ERA (2.94) and fourth-best strikeout percentage (26.5%). Evan Phillips, a waiver claim from the Rays last August, almost immediately emerged as one of the best relievers in the game. The slider specialist has a 1.24 ERA with a 31.8% strikeout rate over 58 innings during his breakout campaign. Flamethrowing sinkerballer Brusdar Graterol has ridden a massive 63.5% ground-ball percentage to a 2.96 ERA. Deadline acqusition Chris Martin has a 1.71 mark with a laughable 26:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio since landing in Los Angeles. Southpaw Alex Vesia has the bullpen’s best strikeout rate (34.6%) and a 2.24 ERA in 51 2/3 frames.

That quartet looks likeliest to assume the highest-leverage work in the playoffs. Roberts can also call upon Kimbrel, Phil Bickford and Tommy Kahnle from the right side, while Caleb Ferguson and the rehabbing David Price are left-handed options. Yency Almonte has had a nice season of his own and is on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City, and there’s still a possibility of Blake Treinen making a playoff return (although Treinen is currently on the injured list and continues to battle shoulder discomfort).

Cubs, Dodgers Swap Chris Martin For Zach McKinstry

By Steve Adams | July 30, 2022 at 1:45pm CDT

The Dodgers have made one of the first bullpen pickups of note prior to Tuesday’s trade deadline, announcing Saturday that they’ve acquired right-hander Chris Martin from the Cubs in exchange for infielder/outfielder Zach McKinstry.

Martin, 36, is playing the 2022 season on a one-year, $2.5MM contract he signed as a free agent this winter. His deal comes with $750K worth of incentives, paid out in the form of a $100K bonus for reaching each of 40, 45, 50, 55 and 60 appearances, plus $125K for spending 40 and 90 days on the active roster.

Martin has already appeared in 34 games and logged 31 1/3 innings of 4.31 ERA ball this season, although fielding-independent metrics are far more bullish (3.02 FIP, 2.09 SIERA). Martin has been uncharacteristically homer-prone this year but has maintained his elite command of the strike zone. He’s punched out 30.1% of his opponents thus far and walked just four of the 133 batters he’s faced (3.1%). One of those free passes was of the intentional variety, it should be noted, and Martin has also yet to hit a batter this season.

The towering 6’8″ Martin is one of the more notable overseas success stories in recent years. After a nondescript run with the Rockies and Yankees in 2014-15, he signed with Japan’s Nippon-Ham Fighters and tore through NPB lineups over a brilliant two-year stint there. He signed with the Rangers for the 2018 campaign and, after a pedestrian first season back in MLB has solidified himself as a quality late-inning reliever. Over the past four seasons, Martin touts a 3.46 ERA with a 26.5% strikeout rate and an impeccable 3% walk rate. Among the 431 pitchers who’ve thrown at least 100 big league innings in that time, Martin’s walk rate is the second-lowest in the game (narrowly trailing former teammate Josh Tomlin’s 2.9% mark).

Martin will give manager Dave Roberts some reinforcement in what’s been a generally strong but also very injury-plagued relief corps. Dodgers relievers rank sixth in the Majors with s 3.37 ERA, but they’ve lost Daniel Hudson for the season (torn ACL), aren’t clear when Blake Treinen (shoulder) will return, and also have each of Brusdar Graterol, Victor Gonzalez and Tommy Kahnle on the injured list at present.

In return for their one-year investment in Martin, the Cubs will acquire as many as five additional seasons of control over the 27-year-old McKinstry, who made his debut with the 2020 Dodgers and has been an up-and-down utility option in L.A. since that time. A lefty hitter with experience at second base, third base, shortstop and all three outfield spots (albeit just 18 innings in center), McKinstry has posted just a .210/.266/.403 batting line in the big leagues. That’s come in a tiny sample of 193 plate appearances, however, and he’s been outstanding during his time at the Triple-A level.

McKinstry, a former 33rd-round pick, has logged 489 plate appearances with Triple-A Oklahoma City in parts of three seasons and put together a huge .323/.401/.550. The Pacific Coast League is a known hitters’ haven, but McKinstry has nonetheless been well above league-average on a rate basis and racked up an impressive 18 home runs, 25 doubles and nine triples there. He’s fanned in just 15.7% of his plate appearances and walked at a 10.8% clip as well.

While McKinstry likely profiles more as a utility player than a starter at the big league level, there’s at least a chance he could hit enough to be a regular at second base — his best defensive position. If not, he’ll give the Cubs someone to bounce around the diamond as a valuable role player for the foreseeable future. McKinstry will be out of minor league options next season, so he should receive ample opportunity sooner than later.

ESPN’s Buster Olney first reported that Martin had been traded to the Dodgers (Twitter link). Patrick Mooney of The Athletic first reported that McKinstry was headed to the Cubs in return (Twitter link).

Bullpen Rumors: Robertson, Cubs, Rays, Tigers, Dodgers

By Steve Adams | July 27, 2022 at 2:08pm CDT

Cubs closer David Robertson is among the most popular names on the trade market for relievers, and both New York clubs have interest in bringing him aboard. The Yankees, who’ve enjoyed two separate stints from Robertson in the past, are interested in another reunion with the 37-year-old righty, per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. Davidoff’s colleague Mike Puma, meanwhile, writes that the Mets are intrigued by Robertson in part because of how effective he’s been against left-handers this season. The Mets don’t have a reliable southpaw option at the moment and there that many quality lefty relievers available, so Robertson’s lack of a platoon split is an understandably appealing trait. FanSided’s Robert Murray writes that the Mets “love” Robertson. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote yesterday that the Rays were among the teams evaluating the Cubs’ relievers.

Through 39 1/3 innings this season, Robertson has pitched to a 1.83 ERA with 14 saves and a big 31.4% strikeout rate — albeit with a bloated 11.9% walk rate. He’s earning just a $3.5MM base salary, though performance bonuses figure to take that number as high as $5.1MM. The majority of contending clubs figure to check in not only on Robertson but on Cubs righties Mychal Givens and Chris Martin, both of whom are free agents at season’s end. Murray notes that Givens has also been drawing strong interest around the league.

A few more notes on the market for relievers…

The Tigers are receiving trade interest on lefty Andrew Chafin and righties Michael Fulmer, Joe Jimenez and Alex Lange, writes Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. McCosky spoke with both Fulmer and Jimenez about the complex emotions of potentially being traded away from the organization they’ve both called home for nearly their entire careers (or, in Jimenez’s case, for his entire pro career). It’s been apparent for some time now that Detroit’s slate of solid bullpen arms would hold major appeal to contending clubs at the deadline, and Fulmer and Chafin seem especially likely to go, given that they’ll both be eligible for free agency at season’s end. (Chafin has a $6.5MM player option.) Jimenez, controlled through 2023, stands a decent chance of being moved as well, but it’d be hard to part with Lange, whom the Tigers can control all the way through 2027. That said, Detroit is reportedly willing to listen on just about anyone, including lefty Tarik Skubal.
Dodgers righty Blake Treinen is taking longer to return than originally anticipated, though manager Dave Roberts told reporters that Treinen has not experienced a setback (Twitter link via Juan Toribio of MLB.com). Treinen pitched a bullpen session yesterday but won’t face live hitters for a couple weeks still, which makes a late-August or early-September return likely. Robert said back in May that the organization hoped Treinen, who hasn’t pitched since April due to a shoulder injury, was targeting a return not long after the All-Star break. Treinen is joined on the injured list by Daniel Hudson, Tommy Kahnle, Brusdar Graterol and Victor Gonzalez, so it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Los Angeles pursue some bullpen upgrades before Tuesday’s trade deadline.

Cubs’ Ian Happ Drawing Significant Trade Interest

By Steve Adams | July 26, 2022 at 8:44am CDT

Willson Contreras generates the most public speculation among Cubs trade candidates with the deadline a week away, but teammate outfielder Ian Happ has emerged as one of the more in-demand names on the summer market, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. That’s particularly notable when paired with Happ’s recent acknowledgment that the team has not approached him about a contract extension (link via Patrick Mooney of The Athletic).

Happ is “likely” to be traded within the next week, Passan writes, adding that some interested parties have approached the Cubs about package deals that would see one of Contreras or Happ traded alongside a reliever such as David Robertson or Mychal Givens. (Passan doesn’t specifically mention righty Chris Martin, though as a pending free agent, he’s surely available as well.) More interestingly, Dennis Lin of The Athletic wrote over the weekend that the Padres have expressed interest in adding both Contreras and Happ in the same trade, though the ask on that would surely be immense.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored Happ’s career-best production earlier this month, observing that notable gains in Happ’s plate discipline profile have generated the strongest and most sustainable results of his six big league seasons. Happ has always drawn walks at a high clip, but his penchant for strikeouts has often suppressed his overall value at the plate.

Most notably, as Anthony wrote at the time, Happ has wildly improved upon his contact rates in 2022. His 62.6% contact rate on pitches off the plate is up ten full percentage points from 2021, and his 83.7% contact rate in pitches in the zone is up from 79.9% a year ago. Happ’s 75.9% overall contact rate is less than one percentage point below the league average. That may not sound all that impressive, but pair roughly average contact skills with Happ’s high-end walk rate (10.9%), above-average power and above-average speed, and Happ looks like an increasingly well-rounded player. The switch-hitting Happ has also posted substantially better numbers as a right-handed hitter this season than in years past, and while part of that is due to a sky-high .463 BABIP as a righty, he’s also cut his strikeout rate against left-handers by about six percentage points this year (down to 25.1%).

Defensively, opinions on Happ are going to be a bit more mixed. After bouncing around the diamond more earlier in his career, he’s settled in as Chicago’s left fielder this season, which is his best position. He’s logged 706 of his 718 defensive frames in left this season, with the other 12 coming via a few brief cameos in center. He’s been a scratch defender in 2022, per Statcast’s Outs Above Average, although both Defensive Runs Saved (+5) and Ultimate Zone Rating (+3.9) feel he’s been above-average.

It’s easy enough to see why Happ’s overall skill set would make him an appealing trade chip. He’s at least a solid defender in left — and a balanced switch-hitter with aa .282/.367/.445 batting line in 387 trips to the plate so far this season. His home run power hasn’t been up to previous levels — his nine long balls put him shy of pace to match last year’s career-high 25 — but Happ has already connected on a career-best 24 doubles and tacked on a couple of triples for good measure. Of even greater appeal, however, is the fact that Happ is controlled for an additional season beyond the current campaign.

Assuming Happ is indeed traded, whichever club acquires him can pencil him into left field both for the current postseason push and the entirety of the 2023 season. He’s earning $6.9MM this season and shouldn’t command much more than $10MM in 2023, which makes him affordable for the majority of clubs around the league. Happ also won’t even turn 28 until next month, meaning the former No. 9 overall draft pick is squarely in the typical prime of a hitter’s career.

Whether the Cubs will ultimately pursue the package offers reported by Passan or instead attempt to engineer standalone trades for all of their chips, of course, is entirely dependent on the strength of offers they receive. However, virtually every contender is looking to deepen its bullpen, so it’s only natural to think that a team with interest in Happ would take a two-birds-with-one-stone approach. Each of Robertson, Givens and Martin will be a free agent at season’s end, and each is in the midst of a fine season.

Robertson has drawn the most attention among Cubs relievers in early speculation — as is often the case for those in the vaunted closer role — thanks in large part to a pristine 1.83 ERA and 14 saves on the season. He’s earning a $3.5MM base salary, though he’s on pace to reach all of his incentives (including a $100K trade bonus), which would bring his total salary up to $5.1MM. Still, for a pitcher with his track record and a 31.4% strikeout rate, that’s a reasonable price to pay — even if this year’s 11.9% walk rate is a bit concerning.

The 32-year-old Givens is also earning $3.5MM, but his contract contains $1.25MM of incentives and a $1.5MM buyout on next year’s mutual option, so his ultimate price tag will fall more in the $5.5MM to $6MM range. He’s pitched a 2.79 ERA with a 29.1% strikeout rate and a similarly elevated 11.5% walk rate. Like Robertson, Givens has a long track record as a solid late-inning reliever with roots in the AL East (Orioles).

As for the 36-year-old Martin, his ERA has swelled to 4.50 after yielding five runs through his past 3 2/3 innings, but even looking past that recent slump, he’s touting a brilliant 37-to-4 K/BB ratio in 30 innings so far in 2022. He’s on a $2.5MM salary and probably won’t get the 60 appearances he needs to max out his incentives, but he’s likely to unlock either $400K or $500K of the available bonuses on his incentive-laden contract before becoming a free agent at season’s end.

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