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Rockies Notes: Arenado, Catchers, Welker, Tinoco

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Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic pulls back the curtain on the Rockies’ extension with Nolan Arenado, providing detail on the timing, structure and actual content of some of the meetings held between Arenado’s camp and organizational decision-makers (subscription required). While the two sides had hoped to avoid arbitration prior to exchanging figures on filing day, that didn’t come to pass, and at one point the sides even looked to be headed toward a hearing. Instead, the Rox agreed to a $26MM salary for the 2019 campaign (thus avoiding arbitration) under the pretense that Arenado’s agent, Joel Wolfe, would follow that up with a counter-offer to the team’s initial extension proposal.

Ultimately, it took a face-to-face meeting involving Arenado, Wolfe, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich and Rockies owner Dick Monfort for significant progress to be made on the extension — as well as a final call from Monfort to Wolfe urging that they put the finishing touches on a deal. Rosenthal’s column is rife with quotes from Wolfe, Bridich and Arenado himself — each detailing elements of negotiations and the thought processes of all parties involved at various points of talks. Rockies fans in particular will find it of great interest, of course, though a broader audience will surely appreciate the in-depth look of the inner-workings of one of the largest contracts in MLB history.

More on the Rockies…

  • The Rockies have curiously declined to address their catching situation this offseason. The reason, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, is that the organization is more concerned with glovework behind the dish than with offense. While there’s an acknowledgement from the club that it “needs more production from whoever plays,” says Saunders, it evidently still believes in its current options over the opportunities that were (and are) available on the market. The Rox are “generally pleased” with Tony Wolters from a defensive standpoint, which is supported by numbers that show he was an above-average framer and otherwise solid defender last year. Veteran Chris Iannetta has a spottier defensive record, though he has at times graded as a well-above-average framer. There’s also Tom Murphy — a former top prospect who has yet to establish himself at the MLB level and now finds himself out of minor league options. His power is more intriguing than his glove, though Murphy drew solid framing marks in ’18 and has generally controlled the running game at a roughly league-average level. In all, catching still looks like a weak spot for the Rockies, and the declaration that defense is valued more than offense seems an odd justification, as there were certainly options who could’ve provided both quality glovework and at least passable offense.
  • Third base prospect Colton Welker wasn’t disheartened to see the Rox commit to Arenado for the long term, writes Thomas Harding of MLB.com. Welker, a 21-year-old considered to be among the organization’s top five prospects, told Harding his current focus is simply on moving up the ladder in the system after a strong showing in Class-A Advanced last season. Furthermore, he explained that he almost expected the Rockies to do so. “Who wouldn’t sign that guy with the numbers he’s put up?” Welker asked rhetorically, adding that he relishes the opportunity to learn from a player of Arenado’s caliber in Spring Training. As the Rox have done with third base prospects Tyler Nevin and Josh Fuentes (the latter of whom is Arenado’s cousin), they’ve begun to give Welker some looks at first base with an eye toward the future. “Colton knew going into this past offseason that first base was going to be a focus in 2019, regardless of what happened with Nolan,” director of player development Zach Wilson told Harding. A fourth-round pick back in 2016, Welker crushed Class-A Advanced pitching at a .333/.383/.489 clip in 2018.
  • Minor league right-hander Jesus Tinoco will work as a reliever moving forward, manager Bud Black told reporters this morning (Twitter link via Saunders). The big righty, who was acquired in the trade that sent Troy Tulowitzki to the Blue Jays, struggled to the tune of a 4.79 ERA through 26 starts (141 innings) at the Double-A level last season and has yet to post an ERA south of 4.67 at any level in the Rockies organization. That said, Tinoco posted encouraging marks of 8.4 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 last season and pitched well in 10 relief appearances in the Arizona Fall League last season.

West Notes: Giles, Cruz, Mariners, Avila, Iannetta

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The Astros’ arbitration hearing with right-hander Ken Giles is taking place today in Phoenix, reports Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). The team submitted a $4.2MM salary figure for Giles, who countered with a $4.6MM proposal. While the $400K difference between those sums will likely seem trivial to most fans, it’s worth remembering that the salary set today will impact the raises that Giles receives in his next two trips through the arb process. Furthermore, teams are ever cognizant of not inflating the future arbitration market by making too many concessions and often feel a responsibility to take a firm negotiation stance. I spoke with a few different assistant GMs and GMs on the matter a few years back in a lengthier exploration of arbitration from the team vantage point, for those interested in some of the intricacies of the process.

A few more notes on some teams in the game’s Western divisions…

  • Looking to add a bit of versatility to his repertoire, Mariners designated hitter/outfielder Nelson Cruz revealed that he’s been working out at first base this offseason (Instagram link). Seattle already acquired Ryon Healy from the A’s in hopes that the young slugger can hold down their first base spot for years to come, but Cruz could conceivably see some time there when Healy needs a day off or in the event of an injury.
  • Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times takes a lengthy, comprehensive look at the Mariners’ bottom-ranked farm system (by Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law). Divish’s column has extensive quotes from GM Jerry Dipoto, director of player development Andy McKay and a pair of scouts from other clubs, each weighing in on Seattle’s lack of depth. Dipoto, as he has in the past, indicates that his front office has elected to use the bulk of its prospect depth to acquire MLB assets such as Healy, Mitch Haniger, Ben Gamel, Dee Gordon and Jean Segura. The rival scouts are critical of the system, with one calling it “barren.” However, they didn’t condemn the actions of the Dipoto-led front office as unwise. “It wasn’t a very good system when he got here so you use what you can to build for the big league and then down,” a scout from an AL club tells Divish. “I see their vision. They’ve traded a lot of midrange prospects, but you can’t replenish them as quickly as they’ve traded them off and that affects depth.”
  • The Diamondbacks’ signing of Alex Avila over Chris Iannetta (at a near-identical price) came down to simple timing, GM Mike Hazen tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The D-backs, according to Piecoro, made a two-year, $4MM offer to Iannetta before he signed for slightly more than twice that with the Rockies, but that came back in early December. Arizona wasn’t ready to make an $8MM+ commitment at that time, preferring first to explore the trade market for a longer-term solution. When that didn’t materialize, the club circled back to the still-available Avila. Hazen, according to Piecoro, added that the D-backs are likely to carry three catchers on their roster early in the season. Jeff Mathis, John Ryan Murphy and Chris Herrmann are all on the 40-man roster, though Murphy and Herrmann are out of minor league options. The D-backs could still add an outfielder as well, per Hazen.

Rockies Sign Chris Iannetta

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SUNDAY: Iannetta’s option for 2020 is actually worth $4.25MM, per Heyman (Twitter link).

FRIDAY: The Rockies have announced a two-year deal with veteran catcher Chris Iannetta, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported (Twitter link). Iannetta will receive a $8.5MM guarantee, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets.

Iannetta will get a $300K signing bonus plus successive salaries of $3.45MM and $4MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The contract also includes a vesting/club option with a $5.25MM price and $750K buyout. It will vest if Iannetta starts at least 220 total games over the next two seasons

With the agreement, Iannetta becomes the second backstop to take home a multi-year deal this winter. Welington Castillo previously wrapped up a two-year, $15MM arrangement with the White Sox. Unsurprisingly, Iannetta settles for somewhat less, but still gets a large bump over last year’s $1.5MM salary.

Oct 1, 2017; Kansas City, MO, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks base runner Chris Iannetta (8) runs to third against the Kansas City Royals during the fourth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

The Rockies got a good look at Iannetta last year, as he appeared in 89 games for the division-rival Diamondbacks. Iannetta thrived in that half-time role, posting an excellent .254/.354/.511 batting line and launching 17 home runs in his 316 plate appearances. He continued to draw walks at a solid clip (11.7%) and made up for a career-worst 27.5% strikeout rate by posting a personal-high .257 isolated slugging mark.

Of course, Iannetta will also turn 35 just days into the 2018 season. And some regression is almost surely in the cards, though it’s fair to note that he has produced at the same level as recently as 2014 — though he also oversaw two mediocre seasons at the plate in the interim. Iannetta’s framing numbers have ridden much the same roller coaster in recent years.

The move represents a return to where it all began for Iannetta, who was drafted and developed by the Rockies. He now figures to occupy a significant portion of the organization’s playing time behind the dish. Perhaps the move does not fully eliminate the Rox as a suitor for Jonathan Lucroy, but it does make it quite a bit less likely that Lucroy will return to Colorado. The team could choose to pair Iannetta with one of its existing catchers, Tony Wolters or Tom Murphy, leaving some untapped resources free to pursue upgrades in other areas.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agents That Have Boosted Their Stock On One-Year Deals

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With the offseason looming, it’s easy to focus on the top free agents this winter will have to offer. We at MLBTR reinforce that line of thinking with monthly Free Agent Power Rankings that profile the top names slated to hit the open market and ranking them in terms of earning power.

Settling for a one-year contract isn’t an ideal route for most free agents, but that doesn’t mean that those (relative) bargain pickups can’t bring significant on-field impact to the teams with which they sign. While none of the players on this list received all that much fanfare when signing, they’ve all provided some notable benefit to the teams that made these commitments:

  • Kurt Suzuki, $1.5MM, Braves: Suzuki languished in free agency for several months as players like Jason Castro, Matt Wieters and Welington Castillo all generated more attention from teams and fans. However, it might be Suzuki that has provided the most bang for buck on last winter’s catching market. The 33-year-old has had a surprising career year in Atlanta, hitting .266/.344/.507 with 15 homers to date. Some have been quick to suggest that Atlanta’s new homer-happy stadium has benefited Suzuki, and while that may be true to an extent, he’s hit for more power on the road than at home. He’s put himself in position for a possible two-year deal this winter, but if he has to settle for one yet again, it should come at a higher rate.
  • Adam Lind, $1.5MM, Nationals: An awful 2016 season and an overcrowded market for corner bats created some questions about whether Lind would have to settle for a minor league contract late last winter. He ultimately secured a guaranteed deal, but it came with just a $1MM base and a $500K buyout of a mutual option. For that meager commitment, he’s given the Nats 267 plate appearances with a .297/.352/.490 slash to go along with 11 homers. Like Suzuki, that might not land him a starting role, but it could land him multiple years as a complementary bench piece.
  • Chris Iannetta, $1.5MM, Diamondbacks: Iannetta has not only rediscovered his power stroke in 2017 — he’s made it better than ever. The 34-year-old’s .249 ISO is a career best, and he’s slugged 14 homers. While that’s still four shy of his career-best with the 2008 Rockies, Iannetta’s 14 big flies this year have come in just 272 PAs, whereas he needed 407 to reach 18 back in ’08. He’s also bounced back from a down year in the framing department and been above average in that regard, per Baseball Prospectus.
  • Jhoulys Chacin and Clayton Richard, $1.75MM each, Padres: The Friars signed four starters for $3MM or less last winter — Jered Weaver and Trevor Cahill being the others — and have received a combined 345 innings out of this pair. Chacin’s run-prevention (4.06 ERA) and strikeout rate (7.44 K/9) have been better, while Richard has 13 more innings (179 total), superior control (2.6 BB/9) and superior ground-ball tendencies (59.1 percent). Neither is going to be mistaken for much more than a back-of-the-rotation stabilizer, but both have done enough to garner larger commitments on the upcoming open market.
  • Brian Duensing, $2MM, Cubs: I doubt I was alone in being surprised to see Duensing, 34, land a Major League deal last winter on the heels of a lackluster season in the Orioles organization. Duensing, though, has quietly been outstanding for the Cubs. In 54 2/3 innings, he’s logged a career-high 9.05 K/9 rate with 2.30 BB/9 and a 47 percent ground-ball rate en route to a 2.63 ERA. He’s held lefties in check reasonably well, but the first time in his career he’s also striking out right-handed batters at a lofty rate. In fact, the .211/.276/.317 that righties have posted against him is actually weaker than the .256/.300/.388 slash to which he’s limited left-handed bats.
  • Matt Belisle, $2.05MM, Twins: Belisle’s inclusion is arguable; he’s posted a pedestrian 4.36 ERA with 8.55 K/9, 3.69 BB/9 and a 42.2 percent ground-ball rate. Those numbers are largely skewed by a putrid month of May, however. Since June 3, Belisle has a 2.25 ERA with nearly a strikeout per inning and improved control and ground-ball tendencies — all while stepping into higher and higher leverage roles. He’s now serving as the Twins’ closer and has a 1.54 ERA with a 29-to-5 K/BB ratio since July 1. He’ll be 38 next season, so the earning power here isn’t sky-high, but he’s probably earned a raise, barring a late collapse.
  • Logan Morrison, $2.5MM, Rays: Few players have benefited more from one-year, “pillow” contracts in  recent memory than Morrison, who has parlayed his $2.5MM deal into a .248/.355/.529 batting line and a 36-homer season campaign to date. Morrison only just turned 30 years old, so he’ll have age on his side this winter as well. A three- or four-year deal seems plausible for Morrison even with the diminished recent market for corner bats.
  • Alex Avila, $2.5MM, Tigers: Avila hasn’t been as excellent with the Cubs as he was with the Tigers, but he’s still among the league leaders in hard contact and exit velocity — both of which have beautifully complemented his always-terrific walk rate (15.9 percent in 2016). With 14 homers under his belt and a batting line that grades out roughly 25 percent better than the league average, per context-neutral metrics like OPS+ (124) and wRC+ (127), Avila could vie for a multi-year deal and/or a starting job this offseason.
  • Joe Smith, $3MM, Blue Jays: Smith’s K/9 has nearly doubled, from 6.92 in 2016 to 11.86 in 2017, and he’s posted a dramatically improved 1.82 BB/9 this year as well. Smith has also served up just three homers in 49 1/3 innings of work, and his 3.10 ERA, while solid, is actually representative of some poor fortune in the estimation of fielding-independent metrics (1.97 FIP, 2.35 xFIP, 2.34 SIERA). He’ll be 34 next year but should top that $3MM mark and could net the second multi-year free-agent deal of his career.
  • Andrew Cashner, $10MM, Rangers: MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently took a more in-depth look at Cashner, noting that his strong 3.19 ERA isn’t backed up by his K/BB numbers. Cashner’s complete lack of missed bats — he has the lowest swinging-strike rate and second-lowest K/9 rate of qualified MLB starters — is going to limit his earning power. But, he’s undeniably been better than he was in 2016, his velocity is comparable to last season and he’s limited hard contact quite well. A multi-year deal is certainly a possibility this offseason.
  • Carlos Gomez, $11.5MM, Rangers: Gomez’s production hasn’t reached the star levels it did in 2013-14, but he’s been a better performer at the plate this season. A spike in his OBP (from .298 to .337) is due largely to a massive increase in the number of pitches by which he’s been hit, which is less encouraging than if he’d upped his walk rate considerably. However, Gomez has also shown quite a bit more power in 2017 than he had in recent seasons (.208 ISO in ’17 vs. .153 in ’15-16 combined), and Defensive Runs Saved feels he’s improved in center field as well. Gomez won’t see the massive payday he looked to be on pace for after 2014, but he’s still young enough to notch a multi-year deal this winter.

Notable exceptions: Neither Welington Castillo nor Greg Holland is included on this list, though both have provided good value to their new teams (Castillo in particular). While their contracts are often referred to as one-year deals with a player option, that type of contract is no more a one-year deal than Jason Heyward’s eight-year, $184MM deal with a third-year opt-out is a three-year deal. Both players were guaranteed the possibility to be under contract for two years, and those agreements are considered two-year deals for the purposes of this list.

Jerry Blevins has also given the Mets terrific value on his one-year, $6.5MM deal, but the club option attached to that deal is a veritable lock to be exercised, so he’s unlikely to hit the free-agent market again following the season.

9 Budget Free Agent Hitters Off To Strong Starts

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Mining the free agent ranks for good value remains an art, with the potential for rather significant rewards. While it’s unusual for a team to find a true gem — think Justin Turner — there is quite a lot of potential for adding impact in part-time roles.

We already looked at some minor-league signees who have impacted their organizations’ bullpens. Now, let’s check in on some hitters who signed for little but have been rather useful through about two months of action:

  • Alexi Amarista, INF, Rockies — The 28-year-old has helped cover for the injured Trevor Story, and he’s doing more than just keeping the team afloat. Through 69 trips to the plate, he’s hitting .338/.348/.515. There’s obviously quite a lot of room for regression baked in — Amarista has drawn just one walk and carries a .412 BABIP — but he’s been a big help for the emerging Rockies team at the meager cost of $1.25MM.
  • Daniel Descalso, INF, Diamondbacks — After Colorado let the utilityman go over the winter, Descalso landed only $1.5MM despite a solid 2016 season. That has worked out just fine for Arizona, which has received 92 plate appearances of .218/.337/.410 hitting from the veteran, who is walking at a 13.0% clip and succeeding despite a .250 BABIP.
  • Chris Iannetta, C, Diamondbacks — Also earning a meager $1.5MM, Iannetta has helped the DBacks feel better about the decision to allow Welington Castillo to walk. Though the typically patient Iannetta is walking at about half of his career rate, he’s driving the ball like never before. Over eighty plate appearances, Iannetta has smacked six long balls and owns a .288 isolated slugging mark.
  • Franklin Gutierrez, OF, Dodgers — Taking home a modest $2.6MM salary, Gutierrez has been quite productive when healthy. While Los Angeles will only ask him to play a limited role, the team will be thrilled if he can keep producing at a .257/.350/.429 rate the rest of the way.
  • Austin Jackson, OF, Indians — After settling for a minor-league deal over the winter, Jackson came with low expectations. But he made the Opening Day roster and owns a .273/.327/.523 batting line that points back to his days as one of the game’s more promising young players.
  • Adam Lind, 1B, Nationals — Lind languished on the market along with a variety of other sluggers, eventually scoring just $1.5MM to function as a lefty complement to Ryan Zimmerman at first base. While the Nats have received plenty of production from Zimmerman, the team is also enjoying Lind’s robust output off the bench. He owns a .340/.400/.604 slash over sixty plate appearances, with as many walks as strikeouts (10.0% apiece).
  • Mark Reynolds, 1B, Rockies — Expected to land on the bench after returning to Colorado on a minors deal, Reynolds was thrown into a more significant role when Ian Desmond opened the year on the DL. He has responded with outstanding production: .313/.388/.555 with 13 home runs in 206 plate appearances.
  • Kurt Suzuki, C, Braves — At just $1.5MM, Suzuki has been quite the bargain. He’s outhitting most of the league’s catchers in his 88 plate appearances, with a .257/.379/.457 slash. Interestingly, Suzuki is walking 11.4% of the time — nearly double his typical levels — while also hitting for good power (.200 ISO).
  • Chase Utley, INF, Dodgers — The former star took home just $2MM in exchange for his services this year, and seemed ready to take a smaller role on the Dodgers’ bench. After a slow start, though, he has begun to deliver. 125 plate appearances into the season, he’s batting .252/.347/.430 with three dingers and three steals — the type of production not seen since back in 2013, when he was still with the Phillies.

NL Notes: Nationals, Mets, D-backs, Cards

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The Nationals and Bryce Harper began working toward the one-year, $21.625MM extension the right fielder signed Saturday over the winter, general manager Mike Rizzo told Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (all Twitter links). The deal could end up as a slight discount for the Nationals, who believe Harper would have pushed for $25MM in arbitration next offseason if he were to win his second National League MVP this year, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (on Twitter).

Looking ahead, Rizzo revealed that there haven’t been any discussions about Harper’s status beyond next season, when he’s scheduled to become a free agent. In the meantime, by settling Harper’s salary for next year, the Nationals ensured that he’ll be “comfortable” and won’t have to worry about it this season, Rizzo added. Harper agrees, saying: “It’s huge. We’re able to go into the offseason and worry about other things.” The 24-year-old also noted that anything past the 2018 campaign is “still a long way away.”

More from the NL:

  • Both left-hander Steven Matz and right-hander Seth Lugo threw 30 pitches in an extended spring training game Saturday and could return to the Mets by late May or early June, manager Terry Collins indicated (via MetsBlog). Matz has dealt with an elbow issue that has prevented him from pitching this season, while a partially torn UCL has sidelined Lugo. The two were quality starters last year for the Mets, whose rotation has declined significantly this season for both injury- and performance-related reasons.
  • Diamondbacks catcher Chris Iannetta took a 93 mph fastball to the face from the Pirates’ Johnny Barbato on Friday, but he’s “doing OK,” according to manager Torey Lovullo (via the Associated Press). Despite suffering a couple fractured teeth and a broken nose, Iannetta is “eager to play,” per Lovullo. However, the team is understandably taking a careful approach with Iannetta and is still deciding whether to place him on the disabled list.
  • In another scary situation, Cardinals Triple-A pitching prospect Daniel Poncedeleon took a line drive off the head Tuesday and then underwent surgery Wednesday to relieve pressure around his brain. Poncedeleon has been in the intensive care unit of an Iowa hospital over the past few days, though doctors are “very encouraged by how things are progressing,” Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak said Saturday (per Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com). “Right now, everything is going in a very positive direction,” continued Mozeliak. “You don’t want to speak in absolutes. You don’t want to draw conclusions. But we’re very encouraged with where he’s at.”

Diamondbacks Designate Juan Graterol

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The Diamondbacks have designated catcher Juan Graterol for assignment, per a team announcement. His roster spot will go to just-signed backstop Chris Iannetta, whose signing was also announced.

Graterol was just claimed off waivers from the Reds in a move that cost Peter O’Brien his roster spot. The 27-year-old has bounced around quite a bit already this winter.

Last year was Graterol’s first in the majors, though he appeared in just nine games with the Angels. Playing at Triple-A for most of the year, he slashed .300/.340/.370 with just two home runs — but also only 27 strikeouts — in 246 plate appearances.

Though he makes lots of contact, Graterol has rarely been very productive with the bat in hand. But he’s regarded as a solid presence behind the dish. The Venezuelan native has gunned down would-be base stealers in 38% of their attempts and draws average pitch-framing ratings.

Diamondbacks To Sign Chris Iannetta

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6:10pm: Iannetta will receive $1.5MM on a one-year term, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (via Twitter).

4:10pm: The Diamondbacks have agreed to a deal with catcher Chris Iannetta, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). Terms are not known at this time.

Arizona had already signed veteran receiver Jeff Mathis, presumably to pair with Chris Herrmann behind the dish. Instead, perhaps, Herrmann will continue in a broader utility role, as he did last year.

[RELATED: Updated Diamondbacks Depth Chart]

The 33-year-old Iannetta hasn’t hit much recently, but was a high-quality OBP threat over the 2012-14 campaigns. If he can bounce back in the BABIP department, perhaps he’ll return to being a solid offensive force. There are also questions behind the dish, where Iannetta has wavered in pitch-framing ratings. He emerged as a top-quality framer in 2015, but fell back to receiving poor ratings last year.

10 Bounceback Hitter Candidates Still Available In Free Agency

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Recently, we took a look at 10 still-available pitchers who could offer bounceback opportunities at appealing price tags. Today, we’ll do the same from the position-player side. We’re looking for players who have been limited by injury or suffered dips in performance, but whose age and track record suggest that a turnaround could deliver plenty of value to their new organizations. Here are some of the interesting hitters who remain on the open market as 2017 beckons:

Chris Iannetta, C: Now 33 years of age, Iannetta has turned in two straight marginal campaigns with the bat. But he hit .238/.357/.386 in over 1,000 plate appearances from 2012 through 2014, with 151 walks to go with 251 strikeouts. Iannetta still draws free passes at a hefty clip, but suffered from low BABIPs in each of the last two seasons (.225, .266). Though he’s making more soft contact than he did at his best, Iannetta turned in a 34.9% hard-contact rate and 22.4% line-drive rate last year, both of which were near his career-best marks. Though he rated as one of the game’s worst framers in 2016, he was one of the best in the season prior.

Adam Lind, 1B/DH: From the same age bracket as Iannetta, Lind maintained his power (.192 ISO, 20 home runs in 430 plate appearances) last year with the Mariners, but posted an anemic .286 OBP. There were two main culprits: a .259 BABIP and 6.0% walk rate that represented nearly a 50% drop from his personal best (11.5% in 2015). While it’s unlikely that the left-handed slugger will again post such strong walk tallies, he ought to be able to rebound somewhat in that regard. And it’s reasonable, perhaps, to anticipate a bounceback in the BABIP department; Lind continued to make about as much hard contact as he did during his productive preceding seasons and maintained a fairly typical mix of grounders, liners, and flies.

Logan Morrison, 1B/DH: As with Lind, Morrison represents a particularly intriguing target since the market was so saturated with defensively limited slugger types. The 29-year-old has never been a consistent producer, and seemed headed for an early end to his time with the Rays after an abysmal start to the 2016 season. But he rebounded beyond any expectations over his final 303 plate appearances, slashing .275/.350/.498 and driving 14 home runs in that half-season of work. While hitting to the pull side more than ever before in 2016 (an even 50%), Morrison made hard contact at a personal best rate of 34.2% and left the yard on 15.2% of his flyballs, the second-best mark of his career. His final numbers could look even better had he not ended up requiring wrist surgery in September. The injury risk may harm Morrison’s stock further, but it also increases the potential payoff.

Billy Butler, DH: There isn’t much to love about Butler’s last three seasons, as he has been about a league-average overall hitter — well shy of what you’d hope for from a right-handed hitter who’s limited to DH duties. But he did show quite well in his brief stint at the end of 2016 with the Yankees and remains rather difficult to strike out (career 14.8% walk rate). Plus, Butler produced a strong 28.9% line-drive rate in 2016 while cutting back on an infield fly rate that had soared to 9.4% in 2015, perhaps suggesting he could turn back into a reasonably productive hitter — particularly given that he’s still just 30 years of age.

Trevor Plouffe, 3B: There’s no denying that Plouffe was banged up in 2016, as he was shelved at various times by intercostal and oblique strains as well as a broken rib. He finished strong, posting a .277/.345/.465 slash over his last 113 trips to the plate, and carried a slightly above-average .248/.312/.426 batting line while swatting 74 long balls over his prior four seasons. While there isn’t much reason to expect that Plouffe will be a top-quality regular, he has every chance of returning to being a useful player: he’s just thirty years old and rated as an average-or-better third baseman in 2014-15.

Luis Valbuena, 3B: The role of injuries is even more straightforward in Valbuena’s case, as he was humming along nicely (.260/.357/.459 with 13 home runs over 342 plate appearances) before he was cut down with a hamstring injury. Unlike Plouffe, he hits from the left side, enhancing his function. While the 31-year-old is not well-regarded with the glove, Valbuena can still play third base and has spent time in the middle infield as well (along with a brief foray into the corner outfield).

Chris Coghlan, INF/OF: A left-handed hitter with some defensive versatility, Coghlan has provided the Cubs with over 1,000 plate appearances of .264/.351/.441 hitting and 26 home runs over the last three seasons. Of course, that output came on both sides of his ill-fated stint with the A’s, where he slashed an anemic .146/.215/.272 to start the 2016 campaign. The 31-year-old Coghlan typically receives good marks in the corner outfield, saw spot duty in center earlier in his career, and is at least serviceable enough at second and third to have been utilized at both spots in recent years.

Desmond Jennings, OF: While things didn’t end well in Tampa Bay, Jennings is still just 30 years of age and isn’t far removed from being a solid, everyday player. He has plenty of experience in center field and has generally drawn strong reviews for his work in the corner outfield. Jennings has been beset by injuries over the last two years, and has been inconsistent at the plate even when healthy. But he managed a .150 ISO last year, even as his on-base numbers were doomed by a .243 BABIP, and could again be a solid asset if he can return to his career plate-discipline marks. Last year’s 9.3% walk rate matched his career numbers, though he jumped to a 25.8% strikeout rate in 2016 while posting a 12.0% swinging-strike rate that was about 50% higher than he had ever carried previously.

Austin Jackson, OF: 2016 was supposed to provide a bounceback opportunity for AJax, who’ll soon turn 30, but a knee injury ended his year after just 203 largely uninspiring plate appearances with the White Sox. Jackson’s power has fallen off a cliff, and he wasn’t running as much even before the injury, but perhaps a lengthy respite can get the still-youthful player back in physical form. He was nearly a league-average hitter with solid glovework in center as recently as 2015, so perhaps his forgettable stint in Chicago is more a blip than the start of a full-scale falloff.

Colby Rasmus, OF: Rasmus played well enough in 2015 to earn a qualifying offer after the season. His return to the Astros wasn’t nearly as productive, as he scuffled to a .206/.286/.355 batting line. But Rasmus was playing with a cyst in his ear, which was ultimately removed via surgery, and also underwent hip and core muscle procedures after the season, so perhaps injuries played a major role in his poor campaign. He also wasn’t helped by a .257 BABIP. Rasmus is still just 30 years of age and produced a strong .238/.314/.475 batting line with 25 dingers in 2015. There are other sources of potential value here, too: Rasmus has typically graded quite well on the bases, though he doesn’t attempt many steals, and metrics were quite pleased with his glovework in both the corner outfield and center in his most recent campaign.

AL East Notes: Sox, Rays, Erasmo, Bautista, Iannetta, Cashman, Orioles

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Today’s acquisition of Tyler Thornburg from the Brewers will end Boston’s foray into the relief market for the winter, Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters (including Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe).  Most notably, this would seem to end any chance of the Sox re-signing Koji Uehara or Brad Ziegler.  Thornburg will join closer Craig Kimbrel, Joe Kelly, Matt Barnes, Robbie Ross, Fernando Abad and (when he is healthy) Carson Smith in the Sox bullpen, plus with Chris Sale now in the rotation, Clay Buchholz, Drew Pomeranz or even Eduardo Rodriguez could now be bullpen options.  Pomeranz or Rodriguez would help add some left-handed depth to the pen, as Abad struggled mightly after coming to the Sox last season.  Here’s more from around the AL East…

  • With Sale off the board, the Rays’ starting pitchers could become even hotter trade commodities, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes.  Some of the teams connected to the Rays’ pitching in trade talks already this winter (such as the Nationals, Astros and Braves) were also suitors to land Sale from the White Sox.  The Rays have received more interest in Drew Smyly and Alex Cobb than Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi since the latter two come at much higher asking prices.
  • Erasmo Ramirez has also drawn some interest, Topkin reports.  The former starter-turned-workhorse reliever for the Rays in 2016 posted a 3.77 ERA, 52.5% grounder rate and 6.25 K/9 over 90 2/3 innings, with 63 of Ramirez’s 64 games coming out of the bullpen.  MLBTR projects Ramirez to earn a $3.5MM salary through arbitration next season, which could be a bit pricey for Tampa’s liking.
  • The Blue Jays’ talks with Jose Bautista’s representatives today didn’t appear to bring much progress towards a reunion, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports.  Bautista’s market seems rather unclear at this point, with some wondering if a more creative contract (such as front-loaded deal with a player opt-out clause after the first year) could be in store for the veteran slugger.
  • The Blue Jays also spoke with catcher Chris Iannetta’s representatives today, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link).  The Mariners declined their $4.25MM club option on the veteran catcher following a season that saw Iannetta hit .210/.303/.329 over 338 PA, eventually ceding regular duty to Mike Zunino in Seattle.  The Jays are in need of a backup catcher for Russell Martin after parting ways with Josh Thole and Dioner Navarro testing the open market.
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman doesn’t expect to add a starting pitcher at the Winter Meetings, telling reporters (including George A. King III of the New York Post) that “it’s a tough market and the price tags are extremely high. We could play on a lot of things because we have a lot of prospects people desire and we desire them, too. I would say it’s less likely for us to acquire a starter.”
  • The Orioles have had success in landing qualifying offer free agents late in the winter, and Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun writes that this strategy could benefit the team again this offseason.  Edwin Encarnacion’s eventual deal will bring some clarity to the market for big bats, though there is still enough uncertainty around the likes of Mark Trumbo and Ian Desmond (not to mention other non-QO free agents) that the Orioles could find some quality hitting at a relatively low price come January or February.
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