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Chris Flexen

Mariners Designate Chris Flexen For Assignment

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2:55pm: MLBTR’s Steve Adams reports that Flexen can reject an outright assignment while retaining his whole salary. Unless the Mariners work out a trade in the next week, he will almost certainly wind up on the open market.

2:10pm: The Mariners announced that right-hander Trevor Gott has been reinstated from the injured list with fellow righty Chris Flexen designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Flexen losing his roster spot is totally unsurprising given his results this season but it’s a shocking turn of events compared to where things stood just a few months ago. After a successful stint in the KBO in 2020, Flexen returned to North America by signing a two-year deal with the Mariners, with an option for 2023 as well.

The guaranteed portion of that agreement went quite well, with Flexen tossing 317 1/3 innings over 2021 and 2022 with a 3.66 ERA. His 16.5% strikeout rate in that time wasn’t especially strong, but his 6.8% walk rate showed strong control. He also did a good job keeping the ball from going over the fence, as his 8.8% home run per fly ball rate was third-best in the league among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitcher. His pitcher-friendly ballpark may have had an impact but his 3.75 road ERA was only slightly higher than his 3.57 mark at T-Mobile Park.

The 2023 option on his contract could be vested at $8MM if Flexen tossed 300 innings over the first two years, which he did. With the M’s having five other rotation options in Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert and Marco Gonzales, that led to Flexen getting interest in trade talks over the offseason.

The Mariners ultimately held onto Flexen for some extra rotation depth, which seemed like a wise move when Ray quickly landed on the injured list and eventually required Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, Flexen couldn’t step up and take the open rotation spot, getting torched for a 10.38 ERA in four starts before getting bumped back to the bullpen.

His next five outings were scoreless but he’s allowed at least one earned run in his past seven appearances. Whatever skill or luck he previously deployed to prevent home runs has eluded him this year, as he’s already given up 11 long balls, leading to a 21.6% HR/FB rate that’s more than double his clip from the previous two campaigns. Overall, he has a 7.71 ERA on the year in 42 innings, which has bumped him off Seattle’s roster.

The Mariners will now have a week to trade Flexen or pass him through waivers. He garnered interest over the winter and some of those clubs could now circle back, especially with so many pitching injuries throughout the league, though Flexen’s poor results this season will obviously tamp down whatever trade value he previously had. With approximately $4.1MM still remaining on his contract, the M’s would surely have to swallow some or all of that in order to facilitate a deal.

As for the waiver route, that will be an interesting factor here. Normally, players with more than three years of service time can reject an outright assignment in favor of electing free agency, but they require five years of service to do so while retaining their salary. Assuming those normal rules apply and Flexen goes on to clear waivers, he obviously wouldn’t leave that money on the table and would therefore stick in the Mariners’ organization as depth. However, players coming from stints in other countries like Japan, Korea or Cuba often have language in their contracts that allows them to circumvent the normal service time rules. For instance, MLBTR confirmed this winter that Flexen would become a free agent after 2023 even though he would be well shy of six years’ of service time. Whether the M’s can potentially keep Flexen as depth or not will have an impact on how much they are willing to trade him.

Mariners Notes: Rodriguez, McGee, Flexen, Hernandez

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Julio Rodriguez left today’s game due to lower back tightness, with manager Scott Servais telling reporters (including MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer) that Rodriguez started feeling discomfort after a stolen base in the third inning.  The outfielder remained in the game until AJ Pollock replaced Rodriguez in center field before the bottom of the sixth, but the Mariners opted to be a little cautious with the young star.

The injury doesn’t appear to be serious, as Servais indicated that Rodriguez might potentially be back in the lineup tomorrow.  However, the Mariners have an off-day on Monday before facing the A’s on Tuesday, so the team might opt to give Rodriguez “a couple days down, [so] he will be okay when we go over to Oakland,” Servais said.

As Kramer notes, Rodriguez also dealt with lower back problems near the end of the last season, which ultimately resulted in a 10-day IL placement.  That decision was made in part to get Rodriguez healthy prior to the playoffs, and he was able to return just before the end of the regular season prior to hitting .217/.357/.435 over 28 plate appearances during Seattle’s postseason run.

Rodriguez’s presence might have made a difference late in today’s 1-0 loss to the Blue Jays in 10 innings.  One bright spot for the M’s was the performance of surprise starter Easton McGee, who allowed just one hit and one walk over 6 2/3 scoreless innings.  McGee held Toronto hitless until his final batter faced, when Matt Chapman lined a double to center field to end the unlikely no-hit bid.

Chris Flexen had initially been slated to start on Saturday, but the Mariners instead called McGee up from Triple-A prior to the game.  Going into the season, Flexen was projected to work as a reliever, but a spot in the rotation opened up when Robbie Ray was sidelined with a flexor tendon injury that ended up requiring a season-ending surgery.  Unfortunately for Flexen, he hasn’t risen to the occasion, with a 10.38 ERA over 17 1/3 innings in four starts as Ray’s replacement.

In addition to Monday’s off-day, the Mariners are also off on May 11 and May 18, giving the team some opportunity to reset their rotation multiple times.  As a result, the M’s might only need a fifth starter twice within the next three-plus weeks.  It would certainly seem like McGee has earned another look, but whether it’s McGee, Flexen, or another pitcher used as the fifth starter, the Mariners will get some time to evaluate and prepare for the longer-term question of how they’ll replace Ray.

McGee was making his first Major League start and just his second career appearance in the Show, after debuting with three innings of relief work (allowing four hits and one unearned run) as a member of the Rays in their 3-1 loss to the Astros on October 2, 2022.  Tampa opted to designate McGee for assignment after that game, with the Red Sox quickly claiming the right-hander off waivers.  The Mariners then acquired McGee in a trade for cash considerations in November.

A fourth-round pick for the Rays in the 2016 draft, McGee isn’t a hard thrower or much of a strikeout pitcher, with a modest 17.47% strikeout rate over 485 1/3 career innings in the minors.  McGee worked to a 4.30 ERA over his minor league career by inducing a lot of grounders and avoiding walks, though his walk rate with Triple-A Tacoma this year has risen to a still-solid 7.6%.  McGee largely struggled at Triple-A Durham in 2022, but he has done much better with the Mariners’ top affiliate, with a 3.14 ERA over 28 2/3 innings for Tacoma in 2023.

This weekend’s series marked Teoscar Hernandez’s first time in Toronto since the November trade that sent him from the Jays to the Mariners.  Interestingly, M’s president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath and Corey Brock that Hernandez might have come to Seattle much earlier, as “most of the work we did on the Teoscar trade actually happened in Spring Training before the [2022] season began.  We tried so hard to pick him up before the season started and talked through a lot of players.”

It makes for an interesting what-if, as Hernandez being dealt prior to the season might have greatly changed the trajectory for two teams that reached the postseason (and faced each other in the Wild Card Series).  For Seattle, it could be that the M’s pivoted to the Eugenio Suarez/Jesse Winker trade with the Reds after not reaching an agreement with Toronto over Hernandez, or perhaps DiPoto’s front office might have even explored adding Hernandez in addition to the two former Cincinnati players.  That would’ve made for a crowded outfield in Seattle, but it’s possible the Mariners might have sent one or two of those excess outfielders to the Blue Jays as part of a projected Hernandez swap.  Erik Swanson may have still be part of such a trade but likely not as the primary piece, given how Swanson hadn’t yet had his 2022 breakout season, and Hernandez would’ve commanded a higher trade ask since he had two remaining years of arbitration control.

AL Notes: Alvarez, Torres, Flexen

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Astros GM Dana Brown discussed star slugger Yordan Alvarez’s health during an appearance on an ESPN game broadcast today, telling ESPN broadcasters that “He should definitely be back for Opening Day. His hands were a little sore. He had some of that last year, but we feel totally confident that he’ll be in games somewhere midway through (Spring Training). But he’s already feeling a lot better.”

The news that Alvarez should be ready for opening day is surely a relief for Astros fans, as the slugger is among the most important players in the star-studded Astros lineup that took home a World Series championship in 2022. Alvarez hit an astonishing .306/.406/.613 with 37 home runs in just 135 games last season. By measure of wRC+, Alvarez was 85% better than the league average hitter in 2022, a fantastic figure only topped by reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge last year.

As Brown mentioned, Alvarez dealt with hand issues throughout the 2022 season, going on the injured list in July and missing time with the issue occasionally throughout the season. Those issues clearly did not hamper his production in 2022, so the fact that Alvarez is not expected to miss time to open the regular season is an encouraging development as he looks to follow up on a season that cemented him among the best hitters in the entire sport and the Astros look to hold off the Mariners, Angels, and Rangers in an AL West that should see all four clubs vying for playoff spots this season. That being said, the situation will remain one to keep an eye on until Alvarez returns to game action, as he’s currently slated to do next month.

More from around the American League…

  • Yankees second baseman Gleyber Torres did a Q&A with The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner today, where the pair discussed an area of topics, including the recent trade rumors that have swirled around Torres. In the interview, Torres notes that he loves playing in New York and would like to spend the rest of his career with the Yankees, though he did note that hearing about the trade rumors was “really hard”, particularly around the trade deadline last season, and that though his representatives have spoken to the front office about a possible extension, he hasn’t had any conversations with GM Brian Cashman or Manager Aaron Boone on the subject personally. Torres, who slashed .257/.310/.451 (115 wRC+) last year, is set to hit free agency following the 2024 campaign.
  • Another player who found himself in the rumor mill this offseason was Mariners right-hander Chris Flexen. As Flexen told Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times and other reporters, the experience of expecting a trade was a harrowing one for him, as well. “It wasn’t the best, but I’m still wearing ‘Mariners’ across my chest. I’m happy to be here.” Flexen was pushed to the bullpen down the stretch last season following Seattle’s acquisition of ace Luis Castillo, and there doesn’t appear to be a clearer path to the rotation entering 2023, though the Mariners are currently stretching him out in case of injury. Still, Flexen excelled out of the bullpen in 2022, posting a 1.62 ERA in 16 2/3 innings as a reliever last year, so a return to the bullpen could still see Flexen impact the club in a major way headed into the regular season.

Poll: Will The Mariners Trade Chris Flexen?

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Early in the offseason, it looked as though there was a good chance the Mariners would move one of their two candidates for the fifth spot in the rotation. The quartet of Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby create a standout set of options in slots one through four, and Seattle has a pair of solid back-of-the-rotation options in Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen. Behind that duo, prospects like Emerson Hancock, Bryce Miller and Taylor Dollard have all reached Double-A and enjoyed success there, placing them within reasonable proximity of MLB readiness. Miller, in particular, cracked the back of some top-100 lists this year, landing 74th on Kiley McDaniel’s list at ESPN, 98th at MLB.com and 100th at Baseball America.

It’s a strong collection of depth, and the presence of Miller, Hancock and Dollard seemed like it could be enough to sway the Mariners to move one of Flexen or Gonzales. Flexen, as a free agent next offseason* with a palatable $8MM salary — compared to the $18.5MM still owed to Gonzales through 2024 — seemed to be the likeliest candidate. That’s true not only from an on-paper standpoint, but also when considering that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto plainly acknowledged in November that he’d been receiving trade interest in Flexen at the annual general managers’ meetings.

(*=There seems to be some continued confusion regarding this, as Flexen won’t have six years of Major League service time after the season, but MLBTR has confirmed that he will become a free agent next winter, as is the case with the vast majority of KBO/NPB signees whose free agent contracts expire.)

The Mariners, however, were never going to give Flexen away just to shed his salary, and the fact that he remains with the club is a clear indicator that another club has yet to put forth an offer Dipoto & Co. felt was commensurate with Flexen’s value. The extent of that value is subjective, but Flexen would be a clear upgrade to the back of several teams’ rotations.

Since returning from a successful one-year stint in the Korea Baseball Organization, he’s pitched to a 3.66 ERA in 317 2/3 innings. Granted, his 92.4 mph average fastball and 16.5% strikeout rate are below average, but Flexen also has sharp command (6.8% walk rate). He keeps lefties in check with the help of an above-average changeup and has generally done a good job keeping the ball in the yard since his MLB return. Flexen has benefited slightly from a pitcher-friendly home environment, but his numbers away from T-Mobile Park (3.75 ERA, 1.12 HR/9) are only slightly worse than those compiled when pitching at home in Seattle (3.57 ERA, 0.91 HR/9).

Because Flexen’s numbers were superior to those of Gonzales across the board, some argued that Gonzales should be the odd man out, despite his relatively lengthy tenure with the club. Gonzales is nearly three years older, however, has more than double the money remaining on his contract. Flexen’s trade value was and is higher, and while he alone wouldn’t have fetched a substantial upgrade to the Seattle lineup, he could certainly have been included in a package that worked toward that endgame.

Now, however, the majority of the teams around the game have exhausted the bulk of their offseason budget and filled the rotation vacancies that existed early in the winter. That ostensibly points toward both Flexen and Gonzales beginning the year with Seattle, perhaps with one in a long relief role. It’s always possible that a spring injury elsewhere on the staff would necessitate a scenario wherein both Flexen and Gonzales are part of the Opening Day rotation.

That said, the injury component still looms as a possibility for other clubs. Even teams that right now believe their rotations to be full could run into trouble over the next 50 days. Nary a spring training goes by without multiple pitchers going down to major injury; situations like the one that popped up today in Milwaukee — where Aaron Ashby is being slowed by shoulder fatigue — are commonplace this time of year. As the exhibition season wears on, more severe injuries that threaten long chunks (or the entirety) of an established pitcher’s season will arise. Many teams are in positions like the Mariners, where they have the depth to withstand such a hit. Others, however, are already looking at questionable depth beyond their top few names (e.g. White Sox, Blue Jays, Padres — to varying extents).

Injuries are an inevitability this time of year, and the Mariners’ depth will likely be attractive to other clubs as health troubles throughout the league arise. Seattle may prefer to stockpile that depth, but moving Flexen would likely free up some resources to expand the budget for in-season acquisitions. It’s also possible that they take on some salary to address another need on the big league roster by way of the Flexen trade itself.

For what it’s worth, Corey Brock of The Athletic speculated in his latest mailbag that the Mariners will ultimately find a deal for Flexen during spring training when an injury on another club creates a need, though it’s just as possible that said injury occurs on Seattle’s staff and takes Flexen out of the trade equation entirely.

Let’s put this one up to a vote for MLBTR readers to weigh in (link to poll)…

Mariners Discussing Jesse Winker In Trade Talks

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The Mariners are in active trade discussions as today’s 5pm CT deadline to set rosters prior to next month’s Rule 5 Draft looms, and they’re showing a willingness to move left fielder/designated hitter Jesse Winker, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). As has been expected for some time now, the M’s have also discussed potential trades involving fifth starter candidates Chris Flexen and Marco Gonzales, Morosi further adds, though the team has not yet engaged in a scenario where Winker and one of those pitchers would be moved in the same package.

Moving on from Winker would be selling low on a player whom the Mariners acquired last offseason, hoping at the time that Winker could be a key middle-of-the-lineup fixture. In the two seasons prior to that trade, Winker was one of the game’s three best hitters against right-handed pitching, trailing only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper in terms of wRC+. He posted a Herculean .321/.417/.619 batting line in 509 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, and while his production against fellow lefties was nowhere near that level, he still walked at a 12% clip against them, resulting in a .314 OBP. His .199 average and .338 slugging against lefties were dismal, but at the very least, Winker could get on base at a near-average clip in when in disadvantageous platoon matchups.

What followed in 2022, however, was the worst season of Winker’s career by nearly any measure. He did walk at a career-best 15.4% clip as a Mariner, but the 29-year-old’s .219/.344/.344 batting line was generally underwhelming — especially considering he was acquired in hopes of providing some left-handed power to the lineup. Winker’s .125 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) was the lowest mark of his career. And, while he’s never been considered a plus defender in the outfield, Winker’s defensive ratings across the board in 2022 were career-worsts (-16 Defensive Runs Saved, -7.2 Ultimate Zone Rating, -10 Outs Above Average).

Poor 2022 season notwithstanding, Winker has a strong track record at the plate and could be viewed by other clubs as a decent candidate to rebound. In his five seasons with the Reds, dating back to his 2017 debut, Winker turned in a collective .288/.385/.504 batting line — about 32% better than the average hitter after weighting for his home park and league.

Winker is also rather affordable. He’s entering what would have been his final arbitration season but is already signed for $8.25MM, having agreed to a two-year, $14.5MM contract with the Mariners just last season. If he’s able to approach anything close to his Reds form in 2023, that’ll be an eminently reasonable price to pay.

It bears mentioning that there could be other factors at play as the Mariners field interest in Winker. In an October appearance on 710 AM Seattle Sports’ Brock and Salk Show, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times laid out, in detail, the manner in which Winker fell out of favor within the Mariners clubhouse over the course of the season. (Mike Axisa of CBS Sports transcribed the meat of Divish’s segment, for those interested in the full scope of the comments.) Add in the fact that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has already spoken publicly about his desire to add at least one, if not two outfielders to his team this winter, and there’s plenty of reason to believe the Mariners’ outfield mix will look different in 2023 (though AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez is an obvious lock to return).

Of course, the trade that brought Winker to Seattle wasn’t all bad — far from it. In order to acquire Winker, Seattle gave up pitching prospect Brandon Williamson, outfielder Jake Fraley and righty Justin Dunn and took on a notable portion of a contract the Reds were seeking to escape … that of Eugenio Suarez. It’s a move the Mariners may not have made had they believed Suarez was beyond hope after a rough 2020-21 showing in Cincinnati, but he bounced back to an even greater extent than most optimists could’ve forecast.

After hitting .199 /.293/.440 with the Reds in 2020-21, Suarez logged a resurgent .236/.332/.459 batting line with 31 home runs, 24 doubles, a pair of triples and roughly average defense at the hot corner. Both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs pegged his 2022 season around four wins above replacement, and Suarez remains signed for another two years and $24MM (plus a club option for the 2025 campaign).

Dipoto: Mariners Getting Trade Interest In Chris Flexen

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With six starters on the Mariners’ roster at the moment, fifth starter candidates Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen have both emerged as potential trade candidates. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto confirmed at today’s GM Meetings that other clubs were showing interest in Flexen back at the trade deadline and have expressed continued interest in the right-hander throughout this week’s GM Meetings in Las Vegas (Twitter link via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times).

Flexen isn’t the only Mariners arm who’s drawn interest; Dipoto told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that his team is “getting hit constantly, up and down, with our bullpen, our starters.” However, Dipoto also stressed that he doesn’t plan to subtract from his bullpen via trade, but rather hopes to further augment an already strong relief corps.

As things stand, the Mariners have a deep rotation — with six starters for five spots. Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby make up one of the sport’s best rotation quartets, and they’re trailed by a pair of solid fifth starter options in Flexen and longtime Mariner Marco Gonzales. Seattle also has young Matt Brash as a potential option, and while the thinking is that he’s likely bullpen-bound for the foreseeable future, Dipoto told Divish that Brash would head to Spring Training stretched out as a starter and be downshifted into a relief role if the rotation remained healthy and did not undergo any other changes.

Those potential changes, quite likely, are in reference to a possible trade of Flexen and/or Gonzales. While neither is going to front any team’s rotation, both pitchers are serviceable options in the fourth or fifth spot of a starting staff, and both are relatively affordable. Flexen is set to earn $8MM next season after triggering a vesting option on his contract. He’ll only have three-plus years of service time at that point, but MLBTR has confirmed that the two-year deal Flexen signed upon returning from the KBO allows him to become a free agent next winter. As such, he’s a one-year rental.

Since returning from a one-year stint in the KBO, the 28-year-old Flexen has pitched 317 1/3 innings of 3.66 ERA ball for the Mariners. His 16.5% strikeout rate has been well south of league-average, but he’s better than average in terms of walk rate (6.8%) and limiting home runs (1.02 HR/9). Flexen has also averaged better than 5 2/3 innings per start and done a decent job minimizing hard contact.

As for Gonzales, a trade would be tougher to piece together. He’ll turn 31 in February, making him a good bit older than Flexen, and while his $6.5MM salary for the 2023 season is more affordable than that of Flexen, Gonzales is also owed $12MM in 2024. His contract contains a $15MM option for the 2025 season, though that option has no buyout.

Two years at a combined $18.5MM isn’t necessarily egregious for Gonzales, but it’s likely more than he’d fetch in the open market at present. He’s made 67 starts and soaked up 326 1/3 innings with a 4.05 ERA over the past two seasons, but Gonzales has seen his fastball velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate and home run rate all trend in the wrong direction. Metrics like FIP, xFIP and SIERA all peg him about a full run worse than his ERA.

Logically speaking, the Mariners appear to be headed toward some form of move involving one of their two back-of-the-rotation options. Flexen, in particular, would seem appealing given the short term remaining on his contract and more reasonable overall commitment, though that’s only my own speculation.

Moving either player would help the Mariners to scale back a projected $131MM payroll next season (hat tip: Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez), not that they necessarily need to. The team’s franchise-record Opening Day payroll was $158MM back in 2018, and they took their payroll north of $170MM each year from 2016-18 by way of in-season trades (via Cot’s). That should leave ample payroll space regardless of how the team acts with regard to its rotation.

Still, spending a combined $14.5MM in 2023 payroll on a pair of fifth-starter candidates is, obviously, a sub-optimal arrangement. Shedding some or all of that combined salary will only give Dipoto and his staff more flexibility when it comes to offseason pursuits, and it’s possible that Flexen in particular could help net some immediate help for the big league roster (perhaps with some minor league talent being included by Seattle). As far as potential other targets, Dipoto has already acknowledged that he feels NPB ace Kodai Senga could be an “impact” MLB arm, and he mentioned in the aforementioned Rosenthal column that his club could seek a middle infielder and at least one — if not two — corner outfielders this winter.

Mariners Could Be In Position To Deal From Starting Pitching Depth

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Going into next year, the Mariners have considerable depth in their rotation. Luis Castillo and Robbie Ray are locked in for the foreseeable future on nine-figure contracts, while both Logan Gilbert and George Kirby proved this season that they fit right in as capable starters who can take the ball in the playoffs. One might expect Chris Flexen, coming off a solid season at the back of Seattle’s rotation that saw him vest an $8MM option for the 2023 season, to bring up the rear.

However, it’s also possible the M’s look to deal Flexen for help elsewhere on the roster this winter. As part of a reader mailbag, The Athletic’s Corey Brock notes that multiple teams inquired about the right-hander at this past trade deadline. Brock opines the M’s could more earnestly shop Flexen for offensive help over the offseason.

After coming over to the Mariners from South Korea during the 2020-21 offseason, Flexen had a strong first season in Seattle that surpassed expectations. He made 31 starts, posting a 3.61 ERA in 179 2/3 innings while compensating for his low 16.9% strikeout rate with a minuscule 5.4% walk rate and a knack for avoiding barrels. Because of this, his performance was generally backed up by the peripherals, leading to a strong 3.89 FIP in 2021.

While those numbers are sufficiently impressive one might assume Flexen is a lock for a rotation spot next year, his follow-up to that campaign in 2022 was less impressive. While his 3.73 ERA this season may not seem like a significant departure from last year, due to the drastically more pitcher-friendly run environment this season, his ERA+ dropped from a solidly above average 114 in 2021 to a just a touch below league average 99 in 2022. Flexen’s dip in performance is further explained by regression in all of his peripherals this season: His groundball rate plummeted from 42.4% in 2021 all the way down to 33.8% in 2022, his walk rate jumped up to a still solid but less impressive 8.6%, and his FIP ballooned up to 4.49. All this lead to the Mariners moving Flexen to the bullpen following their acquisition of Castillo at this season’s trade deadline.

It would certainly make sense for the Mariners to entertain offers on Flexen, particularly with the glut of options the Mariners have for the back of the rotation. Marco Gonzales made 32 starts this year and is under contract for another two seasons (with a club option thereafter). Seattle could theoretically shop Gonzales this winter instead of Flexen, but they elected to stick with the southpaw over Flexen as the #5 starter down the stretch. The M’s also have promising young arms such as Emerson Hancock who may be ready to make the jump to the majors next year.

Between Flexen’s $8MM salary for next season and his dip in performance during 2022, the Mariners wouldn’t recoup an astronomical return. There’ll be a fair number of back of the rotation, innings eating arms in free agency. Many of those pitchers will require multi-year deals, while Flexen will be a free agent after 2023. That shorter commitment could make him more appealing than a free agent landing multiple years at a similar annual salary, but the number of available alternatives will cut against the quality of the trade package Seattle receives.

Given this, the best fit for a Flexen trade would likely be a budget-conscious team who has a bat either under contract or arbitration control at a price higher than they would like to pay. One possible example of such a situation would be the Guardians and Amed Rosario. As Steve Adams discussed earlier today, Rosario is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to make $9MM in arbitration for the 2023 season, and the Guardians have a glut of young talent available, such as Gabriel Arias and Brayan Rocchio, who could potentially be cheaper options to pair with 2022 breakout star Andres Gimenez up the middle.

Rosario, who hit .283/.312/.403 (103 wRC+) this season, has primarily played shortstop to this point in his career, but would surely represent an upgrade over Adam Frazier at second base. Meanwhile, the Guardians might appreciate a durable, back of the rotation pitcher who’s already swung between the bullpen and the rotation in his career to line up behind Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and Cal Quantrill in the rotation, leaving the likes of Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac to compete with youngsters like Konnor Pilkington and Cody Morris for the fifth spot in Cleveland’s rotation. The Guardians aren’t likely to jump at a one-for-one swap of Flexen and Rosario, but it’s possible they could have interest in a bigger trade package that sees those players swap teams.

The Guardians represent just one possible option in this mold, however. The Orioles could be open to dealing some offensive talent to shore up a rotation full of question marks. The Rays may look to move on from first baseman Ji-Man Choi, who could replace Carlos Santana in the DH spot next year for the Mariners. Those are just a few of a number of teams that could be in touch with president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and his staff about Flexen this winter.

Mariners Notes: Raleigh, Haniger, Santana, Frazier, Flexen

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After 18 tense innings, the Seattle Mariners finally fell to the Houston Astros yesterday in the American League Division Series, having returned to playoff baseball for the first time since the 2001 season. The Mariners, who had been projected by ESPN to finish the 2022 season a hair over .500 with an 82-80 record, showed that 2021 was no fluke, following up their 90-win 2021 campaign by winning another 90 games en route to a Wild Card berth.

Following the game, backstop Cal Raleigh announced to reports that he had been playing with a broken thumb and a torn ligament in his left hand, per Adam Jude of the Seattle Times. Raleigh had been playing through the thumb injury since early September, but he had not revealed the extent of the injury prior to Saturday’s game. Raleigh announced to reporters that he would see a specialist in the upcoming days to determine a course of action for recovery, per Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times.

The second-year catcher had followed up his rookie campaign with a strong .211/.284/.489 slash line in 2022, hitting 27 home runs in 370 at-bats and finishing the season with the eighth-highest wRC+ among all catchers (121), nestled between Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud. An integral cog to the Mariners’ offense, Raleigh was one of four players (minimum 350 at-bats) that had an OPS above .700. Raleigh followed up his impressing regular season with a strong Wild Card showing against the Blue Jays, going 4-for-8 with a homer and a double, but was quieted by the Astros’ pitching, collecting only 1 hit in 14 at-bats while striking out 5 times.

In the wake of yesterday’s defeat, the Mariners’ front office will turn their heads toward the 2023 season and free agency. Long-time Mariner Mitch Haniger, trade-deadline addition Carlos Santana, and Adam Frazier will all be free agents following the World Series.

Haniger entered the 2022 season looking to follow up on his successful 2021 campaign, .253/.318/.486 in 157 games, and reestablish himself as an everyday player prior to entering free agency after missing part of the 2019 season and the entire 2020 season with various surgeries. The outfielder and Mariners avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $7.75MM contract in early April.

However, Haniger would only make appearances in nine games before suffering a right high ankle sprain that kept him on the injured list from late April to early August. Upon his return, Haniger hit a solid .254/.322/.418 in the final 48 games of the regular season (100 at-bats).

The Mariners’ decision regarding Haniger, who turns 32 in December, will be quite complicated. The Mariners boast a crowded outfield headlined by AL Rookie of the Year favorite Julio Rodriguez, with former top prospect Jarred Kelenic, Dylan Moore, former AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, and Taylor Trammell. Nevertheless, Lewis has struggled to produce at a high level since suffering a right meniscus tear in 2021, and Kelenic and Trammell have both struggled to adjust to Major League pitching.

For his part, Haniger has indicated that he would prefer to remain in Seattle. Following up by saying that he hopes “to be back in a Mariners uniform for sure,” per Daniel Kramer of MLB.com.

Santana, who joined the Mariners from the Royals at the trade deadline, continued to struggle in Seattle, slashing a combined .202/.316/.376 across 131 games. The 36-year-old split his time between DH and first base, accruing 3 Outs Above Average for his work at first. It remains to be seen if the Mariners will opt for a one-player ’old school’ approach at the DH position, or if they will cycle players through the role during the season.

Frazier followed up his All-Star 2021 campaign with a weaker .238/.301/.311 slash line across 156 games in the 2022 season. The veteran, who was dealt to the Padres during the 2021 season, was traded to the Mariners in exchange for reliever Raymond Kerr and outfielder Corey Rosier prior to the start of the 2022 season. Moore, who was previously mentioned as outfield depth, has also manned all four infield positions and could see an increase in infield work if Frazier is not resigned.

Transitioning to the bump, with five quality starters under contract, starter-turned-reliever Chris Flexen’s position with the Mariners will be an interesting story to watch unfold. Flexen began the 2022 season as a starter, pitching to a solid 4.02 ERA in 121 innings before being bumped to the bullpen where he worked to a 1.62 ERA in 16 2/3 innings.

It remains to be seen if the Mariners will opt to keep Flexen in the bullpen, utilize a 6-man rotation, or potentially trade Flexen to improve their offense.

As previously mentioned the Mariners only had 4 players finish with an OPS north of .700 (minimum 350 at-bats). As a team, the Mariners finished with the third-lowest batting average (.230), an average on-base percentage (.315), and an average slugging percentage (.390).

Additionally, if they opt to trade Flexen for offense, the Mariners boast three prospects No. 2 Emerson Hancock, No. 5  Bryce Miller, and No. 7 Taylor Dollard, who have all had strong seasons at Double-A Arkansas.

Chris Flexen Triggers 2023 Vesting Option

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During tonight’s relief appearance against the Tigers, Mariners hurler Chris Flexen reached the innings threshold to vest an $8MM option for 2023. He’s officially under contract for next season.

Flexen initially signed with the Mariners over the 2020-21 offseason. Previously an up-and-down swingman with the Mets, the right-hander made the jump to South Korea in 2020. He spent a year with the Doosan Bears, working to a 3.01 ERA across 116 2/3 innings, before fielding major league interest that offseason. Flexen inked a two-year guarantee with a 2023 team option valued at $4MM.

The sides agreed to a vesting provision that would guarantee that option while doubling its price if Flexen hit either of two conditions: 150 innings pitched in 2022, or 300 combined innings between 2021-22. Last season, Flexen took 31 turns through the rotation and tossed 179 2/3 innings. That left him needing only 120 1/3 frames this year to hit the marker, and he surpassed that tonight. It has long been apparent Flexen would eventually hit the threshold, although he’d had to wait nearly two weeks between his most recent appearance on August 19 and tonight’s contest before recording the final out necessary to push it over the edge.

It’ll be a nice raise for Flexen, whose first two seasons in Seattle paid him an average of $2.375MM. That he’s now in line for easily the best payday of his career is a testament to his durability and typically solid work over his time in the Pacific Northwest. Flexen pitched to a 3.61 ERA last year, compensating for a modest 16.9% strikeout rate with stellar control and a decent 42.4% ground-ball percentage. He’d posted a 3.92 ERA over 21 turns through the rotation this season, putting up a nearly identical strikeout rate but seeing his walks and grounders each trend in the wrong direction. There’s nevertheless value in the stability Flexen brought taking the ball every fifth day, and his pitch-to-contact approach can be effective in a spacious home ballpark and in front of a Seattle defense that has been MLB’s 7th-best at turning balls in play into outs.

In the wake of their acquisition of Luis Castillo in a deadline blockbuster, the Mariners found themselves with a surplus in the rotation. Seattle already featured reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and top young hurlers George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. The M’s decided to keep Marco Gonzales in the rotation’s fifth spot while kicking Flexen to the bullpen. He’s made just three appearances, all in low-leverage work, in three weeks since the move to relief.

Each of Castillo, Ray, Gilbert, Kirby and Gonzales will return next season, and Flexen’s bump to long relief suggests he’s sixth on the rotation depth chart. Clubs go through more than five starting pitchers every year, but one could argue an $8MM salary is pricy for a sixth starter/swingman. Given Flexen’s solid results as a starter, there should be interest in Flexen from other teams with less rotation depth than Seattle has, making him a speculative offseason trade candidate. If Seattle were to keep him around, his salary would add to a 2023 payroll that’s grown with the Castillo trade and signing of Julio Rodríguez to a massive extension. Still, the M’s should have a fair bit of flexibility to bolster the roster.

Including Flexen’s salary, the Mariners have a bit more than $85MM in guaranteed commitments for 2023, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Castillo headlines an arbitration class that also includes Paul Sewald, Diego Castillo and Ty France (among others), which is likely to push their in-house commitments above nine figures before determining whether they want to make a run at re-signing Mitch Haniger. That’s not far off the approximate $104MM Opening Day player payroll this season. The franchise has spent north of $150MM in years past, though, and it seems likely they’ll continue to push payroll forward. The recent rebuild is firmly in the past, and the M’s have a good chance to snap their two-decade playoff drought this October (although they’d only host a first round playoff game if they finish as the highest-seeded Wild Card). Seattle is currently a half-game back of the Rays for the American League’s top Wild Card position.

How to proceed with Flexen (and how to manage the payroll more broadly) is a decision for president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and his staff to make this winter. With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror this summer, there’s no question Flexen will finish out this season in Seattle. He’ll remain on hand as a multi-inning relief option for manager Scott Servais with the ability to bounce back into the rotation if one of the club’s top five starters gets injured.

Mariners Option Kyle Lewis

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The Mariners announced a series of roster moves prior to today’s game, with utility player Dylan Moore and right-hander Diego Castillo each being reinstated from the injured list. To make room on the active roster, the club has optioned both left-hander Brennan Bernardino and outfielder Kyle Lewis to Triple-A Tacoma.

The optioning of Lewis is arguably the most significant detail here, as he is a former Rookie of the Year and once seemed a lock to be part of the next great Mariners team. Now 27, he burst onto the scene in 2019, making his MLB debut and getting into 18 games. He hit six homers in that small sample and slashed .268/.293/.592 for a wRC+ of 128. He carried that over into the shortened 2020 campaign, hitting 11 homers, stealing five bags and producing a batting line of .262/.364/.437, wRC+ of 127. He was unanimously voted the American League Rookie of the Year that season.

Unfortunately, Lewis has been having a miserable time over the past two years. He suffered a meniscus tear in 2021, which ended his season after just 36 games. His recovery even lingered into 2022, with Lewis beginning the season on the injured list and not getting activated until May 24. Just five days later, his misfortune continued, as he landed on the concussion IL. The M’s sent him out on a rehab assignment over a month later, in early July, returning to the big league club in late July.

Lewis has hit very well in the minors during his various rehab assignments, putting up a batting line of .293/.408/.741 this year for a wRC+ 177. However, his MLB playing time has been much less successful, as he’s hit .143/.226/.304, striking out in 30.6% of his plate appearances in that 18-game sample.

With Mitch Haniger recently returning from the injured list, it seems Lewis got squeezed out of the outfield picture, as Haniger will take regular playing time next to Jesse Winker and Jarred Kelenic, with Moore, Sam Haggerty and Jake Lamb also capable of seeing some time on the grass. Julio Rodriguez is also expected to return from the IL later this week, which will only crowd things further.

The option could potentially have repercussions for Lewis from a service time perspective, as he came into this season with his service time clock sitting at two years and 20 days. Since 172 days is considered a full season, Lewis would need to accumulate 152 days on the active roster this season to cross the three-year mark. The season is about 125 days old at this point by my unofficial count, meaning Lewis is about 27 days shy of crossing over that barrier. If he gets recalled later in the season and makes up that difference, he would qualify for free agency after the 2025 season, but it would be pushed back by a year if he comes up short. He would almost certainly still qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player regardless, as he should finish the season at 2.145 even if he never returns to the big league club. The Super Two cutoff moves from year to year, as it includes the top 22% of players between two and three years of service time. The most recent cutoff was 2.116, with the highest of the past decade-plus being the 2.146 in 2011.

The option of Bernardino is also a notable development as he was the only lefty in the club’s bullpen, with Ryan Borucki getting placed on the IL recently. For the time being, it seems the club will operate with an entirely right-handed relief corps.

That relief corps will evidently include Chris Flexen, as Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times notes that he has been moved to the bullpen. With the acquisition of Luis Castillo at the trade deadline, the M’s are suddenly dealing with an abundance of starting pitching, as Castillo joins Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzales, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby in the rotation. It seems Flexen has been edged out for the time being and will work out of the ’pen. Flexen is just 3 1/3 innings away from securing himself an $8MM guarantee for next year, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently examined. Moving to the bullpen will delay Flexen vesting that salary for next year, though he should still have plenty of time to get over the line.

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