Chris Archer

In a worrisome moment for the Pirates, starter Chris Archer left his start against the Nationals after throwing an errant warm-up pitch before the second inning. Per Mark Zuckerman of MASN, the Pirates are calling it right shoulder discomfort for Archer.

Archer made it through the first inning of Tuesday’s game without issue, striking out the final two batters to work around a pair of singles. However, while warming up prior to the second inning, Archer threw high to catcher Jacob Stallings, shook his head, and walked off the field after meeting with the Pittsburgh training staff.

Of course, the seriousness of Archer’s soreness is yet unknown and will be monitored as details emerge. Regardless, it’s an unpleasant situation for a Pirates team that has already seen its top starter undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery this year. Any significant injury to Archer would only weaken an already-thin pitching staff that entered the season looking like the Pirates’ strength.

The Pirates hold a club option worth $9MM to retain Archer for the 2020 season, a decision that could be complicated by the introduction of a health issue. His Pittsburgh tenure has been a tumultuous one, with Archer’s underwhelming performance only amplified by the hefty return that the Pirates sent to Tampa Bay in return. This season, the 30-year-old has struggled to a 5.23 ERA, made worse only by the fact that peripheral markers don’t paint a much better picture, giving Archer credit for a 5.07 FIP.

While those numbers alone may challenge whether Archer is worth the $9MM option, an underlying health question might motivate the Pirates to prematurely cut ties with the former ace. However, given how heavily the Pirates invested in him at last season’s trade deadline, it would seem unwise to jump ship so quickly on a pitcher with Archer’s pure talent. To be sure, $9MM, while certainly not a bargain, is an affordable mark for even a middling starter—Matt Harvey, for example, signed with the Angels for $11MM prior to 2019.

We’re nearing the one-year anniversary of Pittsburgh acquiring right-hander Chris Archer from Tampa Bay in a whopper of a trade. The Pirates, under the impression they were getting back a front-line starter, sent high-caliber prospects Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows to the Rays in exchange for Archer last July 31. Unfortunately for the Pirates, the deal has been a catastrophe to this point. Archer has flopped, while Glasnow and Meadows may be turning into core pieces for the Rays.

With two-plus months left in his first full season as a Pirate, Archer’s on pace for a career-worst campaign. The 30-year-old has offset an impressive strikeout rate (10.07 K/9) with control problems (4.69 BB/9) and home run issues (2.29 HR/9) en route to a 5.49 ERA/5.91 FIP in 78 2/3 innings. Stunningly, among 110 pitchers who have thrown at least 70 frames in 2019, the once-excellent Archer ranks sixth from the bottom in ERA and second last in FIP.

Now, Archer’s in the process of trying to turn around his fortunes, as he explained to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Archer will hope to do a 180 with a different repertoire. He dumped his two-seam fastball in a June 22 start against the Padres and plans to rely more heavily on his signature slider. Archer told Mackey batters’ “slugging percentage on my two-seamer was extremely high. One way to eliminate the damage is just to not throw the pitch that has the most damage. It’s not a complex thing. It was just getting banged. I got rid of it.”

Archer’s right. Hitters own a ludicrous .867 slugging percentage against the pitch – one Statcast classifies as a sinker and says he has turned to 15.8 percent of the time this season. Archer didn’t throw a sinker in any of the three full seasons before the Pirates acquired him, but it became a prominent part of the mix last year. While Archer told Mackey that “I probably tried to change too much” upon relocating to Pittsburgh, he and pitching coach Ray Searage insist the hurler – no one else – determines what he throws. Searage indicated he and Archer have a great relationship.

Whereas Archer’s two-seamer was a disaster before he scrapped it, his slider has been eminently effective throughout his career. That includes this season, during which hitters have mustered a toothless .290 weighted on-base average/.293 expected wOBA against it. Archer believes it’s “one of the best pitches in baseball.” And yet, he has leaned on it far less than usual this season, having tossed it at a 35.1 percent clip. That’s down 6.6 percent from last season and 9.5 percent compared to 2017.

Simply throwing more sliders and fewer sinkers won’t be the solution alone, according to Searage, who told Mackey that Archer also must improve his four-seam fastball command. In Searage’s estimation, that will lead to a decrease in homers against Archer, who had never allowed HRs on more than 16.2 percent of fly balls in a season until 2019. This year, he’s giving them up at a 23.8 percent rate. Only two starters have been worse in that department. Archer has had enough.

TODAY: Archer has been officially activated, as per a team announcement.  Right-hander Clay Holmes was optioned to Triple-A to create room on the 25-man roster.

SUNDAY: Pirates right-hander Chris Archer is slated to come off the injured list Wednesday for a start against the Diamondbacks, Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette was among those to tweet.

Archer has been been on the IL with right thumb inflammation since April 27, the day after he turned in his lone horrid start of the season in a loss to the Dodgers. In all, the 30-year-old has notched 27 innings of 4.33 ERA/4.80 FIP ball with four walks per nine, a 32.4 percent groundball rate and a 15.2 percent home run-to-fly ball rate.

Nearly all of Archer’s 2019 numbers rank as personal worsts, and despite an impressive ability to fan hitters (9.67 K/9 this season, 9.73 career), he has fallen somewhat short in the run prevention department in recent years. Archer hasn’t managed a sub-4.00 ERA since 2015, the last season of an excellent three-year stretch, though he was still worth between 2.6 and 5.1 fWAR in each of the previous five campaigns.

Although Archer has looked more like a mid-rotation starter than an ace of late, the Pirates still surrendered a boatload to acquire him and his team-friendly contract from the Rays last July. Pittsburgh gave up a young tandem consisting of righty Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Austin Meadows, both of whom failed to live up to their high-end prospect billing with the team but now look like blossoming stars in Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, the gamble didn’t pay off in the form of a playoff berth for the Pirates last year, and though the Bucs are off to a 19-17 start this season, they’ll have trouble overtaking the Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals in the National League Central.

Pirates righty Chris Archer has undergone a procedure to repair a bilateral hernia, the club announced. He’s expected to require approximately six weeks to recover.

The surgery does not appear to represent any kind of threat to Archer’s ability to contribute to the Bucs in 2019. The club says it’s “anticipated” that he’ll “be on or close to a regular schedule for the 2019 season.”

Presumably, the organization cautious phrasing is mostly designed to avoid over-promising. But it also hints at the realities of recovering from a core muscle procedure, which isn’t sure to be straightforward. No doubt the organization will be conservative in bringing Archer along this spring.

Expectations remain high for Archer, who came over in a surprising trade deadline swap. Though he continues to turn in sparkling peripherals, Archer has also not posted a sub-4.00 ERA season in any of the past three years. Reversing that run of disappointment will certainly require good health.

It has thus far been a fairly eventful offseason for a Pirates team that will try to contend but likely won’t spend big to do so. They sent fellow starter Joe Musgrove out for his own abdominal procedure about a month ago. Meanwhile, the club has (true to character) pursued a few low-cost means of unearthing value, inking Jung Ho Kang and Lonnie Chisenhall to affordable, one-year pacts.