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NL West Notes: Padres, Yankees, Soto, Montgomery, Treinen, Bryant

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As one might expect, December’s blockbuster Juan Soto trade between the Padres and Yankees took on several different permutations before the two sides finally agreed on the seven players involved.  The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that the Padres had interest in 17 different Yankees players before finally agreeing on a package of four pitchers (Michael King, Randy Vasquez, Jhony Brito, Drew Thorpe) and catcher Kyle Higashioka in exchange for Soto and Trent Grisham.  Clarke Schmidt and Chase Hampton were two of the other pitchers known to be considered when reports began to surface about the trade negotiations, and Heyman adds that the Yankees agreeing to include Thorpe instead of Hampton was one of the turning points in getting the deal done.

Though San Diego ended up taking a pitching-heavy mix of players, Heyman writes that the Friars also asked about such noteworthy position-player prospects as Spencer Jones, Roderick Arias, and George Lombard Jr.  Jones is a top-100 prospect and the 25th overall pick of the 2022 draft, and he has already drawn lots of trade buzz early in his pro career.  The Yankees have thus far balked at moving Jones, even in past talks with the Brewers and White Sox about Corbin Burnes and Dylan Cease, respectively.

More from around the NL West…

  • Jordan Montgomery will likely make his Diamondbacks debut on April 18, manager Torey Lovullo told reporters (including Alex Weiner of KTAR 92.3 radio).  Because he didn’t sign until just prior to Opening Day and therefore missed Spring Training, Montgomery started his D’Backs tenure in the minors in order to get some ramp-up work under his belt.  Montgomery got up to 71 pitches over 3 2/3 innings in a Triple-A start yesterday, and though he was tagged for seven unearned runs, Lovullo said Montgomery was just working out his fastball rather than worrying about on-field results.  It remains to be seen if Tommy Henry or Ryne Nelson will be removed from the rotation to make way for Montgomery, though if Montgomery is eased back into action, one of Henry or Nelson could speculatively be paired with the southpaw in something of a piggyback capacity for a turn or two through the rotation.
  • Blake Treinen threw to live hitters today, in the latest step of his recovery process after suffered a bruised lung over a month ago.  Treinen was hit in the chest by a line drive during a Spring Training game, and he told reporters (including Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times) that a later MRI revealed two fractured ribs in addition to the bruised lung, though the reliever is now feeling pain-free.  Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said that the plan is to have Treinen face live hitters twice more over the next week, and then begin a minor league rehab assignment during the week of April 22.
  • Kris Bryant wasn’t in the Rockies’ lineup today after making an early exit from Saturday’s game due to back stiffness.  Bryant collided with the right field wall while catching a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. fly ball in the first inning Saturday, and remained in the game until being replaced in the bottom of the fourth.  Bryant is considered day-to-day and manager Bud Black said he was available to pinch-hit today if necessary, though given Bryant’s lengthy injury history, any sort of health issue will naturally cause some extra concern.

Dylan Cease Rumors: Dodgers, Busch, Orioles, Yankees

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Considering the Dodgers’ need for pitching, it isn’t surprising that L.A. was linked to White Sox righty Dylan Cease in trade rumors on multiple occasions this winter.  There hasn’t been much in the way of new reporting on the Dodgers’ interest in Cease for over a month, however, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes that a trade may be less likely because the Dodgers have since fortified their rotation with other arms.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s twelve-year, $325MM contract was the big free agent strike, and Los Angeles swung a big trade with the Rays to land Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot.  Yamamoto, Glasnow, and Walker Buehler now project as the top three starters in the L.A. rotation, with Bobby Miller as the fourth, and a collection of candidates (Ryan Yarbrough, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Michael Grove) battling for the fifth starter job.  Dustin May is expected to make a midseason return from elbow surgery, and a reunion with Clayton Kershaw remains a possibility even if Kershaw will also be sidelined until around the middle of the year as he recovers from shoulder surgery.

There’s still some room here for the Dodgers to further solidify things beyond a potential new contract with Kershaw, so a Cease trade can’t be entirely ruled out, even if may be less likely.  It’s safe to assume that the Dodgers will continue to monitor the market for any bigger-name possibilities, yet Rosenthal writes that Los Angeles might now be “looking for future value” in any further trades, such as Thursday’s swap with the Cubs that saw the Dodgers acquire two teenage prospects in exchange for Michael Busch and Yency Almonte.

In one particularly novel scenario, Rosenthal reports that the Dodgers even considered acquiring Cease from the White Sox and then flipping him to a third team.  The specifics of this arrangement aren’t clear, yet it would’ve been a fascinating way for both the Dodgers and White Sox to obtain some high-level young talent for Cease, in a mix-and-match of prospects each team might’ve had their eye on in the Dodgers’ organization or within the pipeline of whoever the third club involved might’ve been.

Busch was also part of some of the Dodgers’ offers for Cease, Rosenthal writes, so the young infielder might’ve found himself on the south side of Chicago rather than landing in Wrigleyville.  Without knowing what the rest of this trade package to the White Sox might have included, it makes sense why the Sox might have not been too enthralled with Busch as a key piece.  While Busch has been crushing minor league pitching, his defense is considered a weak point — if first base ends up being his ultimate position, the White Sox already have Andrew Vaughn in place.

It isn’t any secret that the White Sox have put a very high price tag on Cease, so while Busch is a top-100 type of prospect, the Sox might’ve viewed him as a secondary or even tertiary piece in an acceptable trade package.  Several highly-regarded prospects have been reportedly on Chicago’s radar in trade talks, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds Yankees pitching prospect Chase Hampton and Orioles outfielders Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser to the list of young players drawing interest from the Southsiders.

Since the Yankees just signed Marcus Stroman this week, they could perhaps be out on Cease, since naturally New York isn’t keen on the idea of moving Hampton or slugger Spencer Jones, who is also reportedly of interest to the White Sox in a Cease trade.  Considering how the Yankees already dealt a lot of their younger pitching depth to the Padres to obtain Juan Soto, moving Hampton in particular might be something of a non-starter.

Kjerstad (the second overall pick of the 2020 draft) and Cowser (fifth overall in 2021) are two of the many up-and-comers in Baltimore’s loaded farm system, and both players made their Major League debuts this past season, though with only 110 combined plate appearances.  The duo might well be lined up as the Orioles’ corner outfielders of the future, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see pending free agent Anthony Santander dealt at some point this season if either Kjertsad or Cowser prove themselves capable of being MLB regulars right away.

Of course, it’s not out of the question that the O’s might deal from their deep minor league pipeline at some point this offseason, perhaps to obtain a front-of-the-rotation pitcher like Cease.  Baltimore might be more willing to come closer to Chicago’s asking price due to the sheer number of quality prospects the O’s have on hand, yet considering how many of those youngsters have barely reached the majors or even Triple-A, the Orioles might want more time to evaluate their options before deciding on who might be trade bait.

Yankees, Padres Nearing Juan Soto Deal

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5:39pm: The Padres continue to evaluate the medical records of the players involved, tweets Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.

3:10pm: Curry reported on air that King, Thorpe, Brito, Vasquez and catcher Kyle Higashioka are all likely to be included in the trade (video link). The deal still isn’t quite across the finish line but could be wrapped up this afternoon.

2:42pm: The two sides are still sorting out minor details and reviewing medical information, but Heyman tweets that a deal is expected to be finalized sooner than later. Soto and Grisham are both expected to go to the Yankees.

1:47pm: Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that even after the Yankees’ acquisition of Verdugo, Grisham is still involved in the current iteration of talks between New York and San Diego. He’d be used as a fourth outfielder and late-inning defensive upgrade. His projected $4.9MM salary is a bit steep for that role, particularly when factoring in the associated luxury tax implications, but the Yankees don’t seem too concerned with club payroll at present.

11:20am: The package for Soto is expected to include King and Thorpe, as well as “at least two” other players, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, who adds that a deal is indeed close to being finalized.

8:42am: Talks between the Yankees and Padres regarding star outfielder Juan Soto have continued throughout the night, it seems, and the Yankees have “intensified” their efforts to pry Soto away from San Diego, Jack Curry of the YES Network reports. Curry calls a trade “likely,” noting that pitchers Michael King and Drew Thorpe could both be in play. Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds that in addition to Thorpe and King, each of Clarke Schmidt, Chase Hampton, Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez have all been discussed. Certainly, the Yankees won’t be sending that whole slate of arms, but there’d likely be more to the package than Thorpe and King alone.

A trade sending Soto to the Bronx has been viewed as a possibility for much of the offseason, given the superstar slugger’s projected $33MM salary (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), the Padres’ reported need to scale back payroll (while still adding to a perilously thin rotation mix) and the Yankees’ desire for aggressive and broad-reaching changes on the heels of a disappointing season. Prior reporting on the talks between the two parties have been hung up on the Padres insisting on the inclusion of MLB rotation pieces, most notably including King. That Curry mentions King and Thorpe as possibilities to be included in this deal seems to represent an acquiescence of sorts from the Yanks.

If a deal is indeed completed, Soto would be the second outfielder acquired by the Yankees in as many days. New York pulled of an extraordinarily rare swap of note with their archrivals in Boston last night, landing fellow corner outfielder Alex Verdugo from the Red Sox in exchange for a three-player package. Soto and Verdugo would join Aaron Judge in the outfield, resulting in a major overhaul of a group that was a weak point in the Bronx throughout the 2023 season.

Even with Judge in the fold, Yankees outfielders combined for a dreadful .220/.293/.399 batting line last season. The resulting 90 wRC+ suggests that Yankees outfielders were about 10% below average at the plate even with the 2022 AL MVP’s production included. Subtracting Judge from the equation, Yankees outfielders combined to post a catastrophic .214/.247/.365 batting line on the season.

A Verdugo-Judge-Soto outfield would be far more productive and also substantially reduce the Yankees’ strikeout woes; Verdugo fanned at just a 15.4% rate in 2023, while Soto wasn’t much higher at 18.2%. Both Soto and Verdugo are one-year solutions in the outfield, as both are set to become free agents following the 2024 campaign.

Presumably, the Yankees would deploy Judge in center field regularly for the upcoming season, with Verdugo in left field and Soto in right. The Padres and Yankees had previously discussed including San Diego center fielder Trent Grisham in a Soto package, but Heyman tweets that following the acquisition of Verdugo, Grisham is no longer likely to be a part of talks with the Friars. While manager Aaron Boone can’t formally comment on any potential acquisition of Soto, he did acknowledge to The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty and other reporters just now that the Yankees would be comfortable with Judge playing center field every day this coming season.

Roster Resource already projects the Yankees for a payroll north of $245MM and more than $256MM worth of luxury tax obligations. Soto would push those numbers to around $278MM and $289MM, respectively. The Yankees are already effectively at the second luxury-tax threshold, meaning the penalties they face for incorporating Soto’s salary into the fold will be steeper. As a team paying the luxury tax for a third straight season, they’d pay a 62% tax for exceeding by $20-40MM and a hefty 95% surcharge on the next $20MM spent. With regard to Soto, that’d equate to about $24.5MM of penalties on top of his projected $33MM salary.

Of course, further changes could impact that payroll and roster outlook. The Yankees have been prominently linked to star NPB right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto and are viewed as one of the favorites to land him. Even failing that, the Yankees could need to look for outside help in the rotation — particularly if King and/or Schmidt is indeed part of the swap that ultimately nets them Soto. Adding Soto and making a subsequent addition of any real note to the rotation (barring the acquisition of a pre-arbitration arm to plug into the mix) would push the Yankees into the newly created fourth tier of luxury penalization — often referred to as the “Steve Cohen tax” in reference to the crosstown owner of the Mets.

Big Hype Prospects: Crews, Skenes, Amador, Hampton, Mauricio

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Nobody runs a stronger Top 100 prospects list than Baseball America. Today, we’ll look at some key updates to their mid-season list that have yet to be reflected by other public outlets. We’ll also check in on recent draftees.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Dylan Crews, 21, OF, WSH (CLG)
258 PA, 18 HR, 6 SB, .426/.567/.713

Crews leads the 2023 draft class, ranking fourth overall among the Top 100 prospects in the game. He’s basically tied with future teammate James Wood. The Nationals have the foundation of a potent outfield in the near future.

If there’s a knock on Crews, it’s a possible weakness to pro-caliber breaking balls. Perhaps the only challenge left to him before his Major League debut is coping with pitchers who can precisely command breaking stuff. Otherwise, he’s a premium all-fields power hitter who can stick in center field. Given the potency of his bat, he’s still valuable as a corner outfielder.

Paul Skenes, 21, SP, PIT (CLG)
122.2 IP, 15.3 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 1.69 ERA

Skenes outclassed college hitters in a batter-friendly run environment. He’s considered more or less Major League ready and could debut whenever Pittsburgh is ready for him. Between his heavy college workload and violent delivery, don’t expect that to happen this year. The recent trend is to shut down heavy workload college pitchers in their draft year. Skenes’ fastball is a weapon, regularly hitting triple-digit velocity with arm-side run and carry. He’s deadly working up-and-in to right-handed hitters. Southpaws won’t enjoy facing him either. He throws multiple breaking balls and features a quality changeup – a pitch that was all but unnecessary to his college dominance.

Adael Amador, SS, 20, COL (A+)
259 PA, 9 HR, 12 SB, .302/.391/.514

A personal miss of mine, Amador wasn’t much to look at last year despite strong results. We often see players of this ilk thrive in the low minors only to fade as they climb the ladder. It’s a discipline over physical skills profile, though the physical side of his game has improved enough to project a future starting role. Previously, I viewed him as a future oft-used utility guy based on his public measurables. My scouting contacts backed up that assessment with their visual impressions. Amador still primarily makes pulled, ground ball contact. He’ll need to develop more lift in order to make the most of his skills.

Chase Hampton, 21, SP, NYY (AA)
(A+/AA) 74.2 IP, 13.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 3.13 ERA

An afterthought on Yankees lists entering this season, Hampton is sprinting through the minors. He’s added velocity to a five-pitch repertoire of effective offerings. He’s passed Will Warren within the system. Pitchers with at least four average pitches and 50-grade command tend to have long careers (health allowing). The Yankees haven’t shown the best feel for finishing their pitching prospects in recent years – perhaps inspiring their willingness to deal J.P. Sears, Ken Waldichuk, and Hayden Wesneski at the deadline last season. Hampton is seemingly a cut above.

Ronny Mauricio, 21, SS, NYM (AAA)
358 PA, 14 HR, 14 SB, .299/.344/.512

Whether or not you play fantasy baseball, there’s something attractive about guys who mash dingers and raid forts. Mauricio produces wild exit velocities – 92.0 average and 115.8 max. That’s all the more impressive when we consider his Baez-ian discipline. Like early-career Baez, his ability to square pitches out of the zone helps him to recover for objectively abysmal discipline. At this stage of his career, he doesn’t flash Baez’s superlative defensive feats. Had the Mets played as expected, Mauricio is probably traded in the upcoming weeks. As it stands, he should receive an audition at second base before long.

Three More

Ethan Salas, SDP (17): Salas, whom we profiled in more depth last week, jumped from the mid-50s to 18th on the BA Top 100. A precocious defender, the rapid development of his bat has caught even his most ardent supporters by surprise. Few players generate half this much excitement in their age 16 season. How he handles his growing fame will prove instructive.

Sal Frelick, MIL (23): While I’ve soured on Frelick, BA is enthused with a 32nd ranking. Their short blurb references the reason why I’m concerned – a lack of authoritative contact. His 85.2 average and 106.5 max exit velocities are well below average in a year when most guys have artificially inflated Triple-A EVs. The discipline remains pristine.

Wyatt Langford, TEX (22): The other draftee who was widely considered a first-overall caliber prospect, Langford might manage to outhit Crews. However, he’s miles behind defensively despite comparable physical ability. FanGraphs offers a fun comp – Pat Burrell with a jetpack.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: Cowser, De La Cruz, Rushing, Vientos, Keith

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Last week’s lead Big Hype Prospect, Andrew Abbott, is already on his way to the Majors. Let’s see if we can pull the trick two weeks in a row.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Colton Cowser, 23, OF, BAL (AAA)
186 PA, 8 HR 5 SB, .347/.484/.590

When he hit the injured list with a quad injury in mid-May, Cowser was playing his way into Major League consideration. Cowser returned to action over the weekend, going a combined 4-for-5 with two walks, a double, and a homer. He’s produced multiple hits in 14 of 39 games this season. Cedric Mullins is currently sidelined with a groin injury. Although replacement center fielder Aaron Hicks has played well in his absence, underlying metrics suggest Hicks is toast. The club also has a partial opening at designated hitter which can be filled on a more permanent basis by Anthony Santander. Cowser has the athletic ability to stick in center field, but he could be a truly plus defender in the outfield corners. There’s concern he’ll struggle against left-handed pitching early in his career. At worst case, he looks like a high-probability strong-side platoon hitter. That’s why he’s creeping towards Top 10 prospect status on many lists.

Elly De La Cruz, 21, 3B/SS, CIN (AAA)
186 PA, 12 HR, 11 SB, .297/.398/.633

My recent fantasy chat included at least a half dozen questions about when De La Cruz will debut. I don’t have any special insight into the Reds thought process. The decision is complex, made even more so due to new service time and draft pick compensation rules. Role playing as the Reds, there is a certain attractiveness to following the Corbin Carroll model. As you’ll recall, Carroll debuted in late-August and performed decently in his debut. He’s now on pace to handily win the NL Rookie of the Year Award. The timing of his initial promotion ensured he would be club-controlled through 2028 (a contract extension has since further extended the Diamondbacks control). A later debut for De La Cruz would ensure he’s under control through at least 2029.

Were it up to me, he would be in the Majors tomorrow. Of all prospects in the minors, he has the least to prove. To my eyes, he’s the most physically impressive prospect since Fernando Tatis Jr. Among his most impressive traits are a 93.4-mph average exit velocity with a 118.8-mph max EV. This season, Matt Olson leads the league with a hardest-hit ball of 118.6-mph.

Dalton Rushing, 22, C, LAD (A+)
188 PA, 7 HR, 1 SB, .261/.431/.507

Rushing has followed up a wild 2022 debut with an impressive, discipline-forward performance. Defensive reviews of the left-handed hitting catching prospect skew vaguely negative. He’s a high-effort receiver who will need to work hard to polish his game. Since his bat is so advanced, a move to a corner position might be required so he can progress through the minors at a more rapid pace. The Dodgers are blessed with a number of highly regarded catchers. They can certainly afford for Rushing to play elsewhere. It might be advisable to get Rushing’s bat in Double-A before he becomes too accustomed to a 19.7 percent walk rate. Discipline is an excellent trait to possess, but it needs to be coupled with selective aggression within the strike zone.

For clarity the speculation about Rushing moving off catcher is my own based on the Dodgers inventory. I’ve not seen a scout suggest it’s necessary.

Mark Vientos, 23, DH, NYM (MLB)
(AAA) 166 PA, 13 HR, .333/.416/.688

Vientos possesses (and gets to) incredibly consistent power in-game. Although he’s only hitting .188/.206/.281 in 34 plate appearances, his exit velocities (96.1-mph average, 112.8-mph max) tell another story. Among hitters with over 30 plate appearances, only Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have tallied higher average exit velocities. While it’s in part a small sample fluke, Vientos did average 94.5-mph in Triple-A. The flaws in his game could limit his ceiling. In particular, he tends to make low-angle, pulled contact. He’s expected to be strikeout prone. He could find himself cast as a second-division starter or limited to facing certain pitcher types.

Colt Keith, 21, 3B, DET (AA)
217 PA, 10 HR, 1 SB, .321/.396/.563

Keith has built upon a breakout 2022 in High-A by doing much the same in Double-A. He’s even trimmed three points from his swinging strike rate. There’s risk he’ll continue to move down the defensive spectrum. He was being trained as a second baseman last season, but he’s made only three starts at the keystone in 2023. His bat is his carrying characteristic, fueled by plus discipline and a willingness to ambush mistakes in the zone. Wherever he winds up defensively, his bat looks like it will play in the Majors.

Three More

Bryan Woo, SEA (23): The Mariners opted to jump Woo straight from Double-A for his debut last Saturday. His performance in Double-A was masterful (44 innings, 2.05 ERA). His first start, not so much (2 IP, 7 H, 6 R). Scouts have long loved the life and shape of his fastball. His slider and changeup remain works in progress.

Chase Hampton, NYY (21): One of the top-performing pitching prospects in the minors, Hampton is beginning to draw attention from scouts. His mid-90s fastball reportedly tunnels well with a plus slider and curve. As with many young power pitchers, his changeup lags behind his other offerings. Hampton has an 18.8 percent swinging strike rate in High-A.

Luken Baker, STL (26): A former second-round draft pick, Baker experienced a breakthrough in Triple-A this season, bashing 18 home runs in 244 plate appearances. He produced a 92.8-mph average and 113.5-mph max EV. Baker made his debut as the designated hitter on Sunday.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

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