The Reds announced this evening that they’ve officially signed second overall pick Chase Burns. MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis reports (on X) the the right-hander received a $9.25MM signing bonus. While that’s a bit shy of the $9.79MM slot value, it’s the largest signing bonus in draft history. Burns edges past the $9.2MM which Paul Skenes secured as last year’s first overall pick.
It’s possible that record will only stand for a few days. Burns is the first player from this year’s top 10 to sign. First overall pick Travis Bazzana (and potentially #3 selection Charlie Condon) could land a loftier bonus in the coming weeks. That won’t be of much concern to Burns, the first pitcher to come off the board last week. While Burns was widely expected to be the top pitcher selected, he was a slightly surprising pick at #2. Condon and West Virginia infielder JJ Wetherholt — who “slipped” to the Cardinals at #7 — were marginally ahead of Burns on most public rankings heading into the draft, largely because of the heightened injury risk for pitchers.
ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and Keith Law of the Athletic each had Burns as the #5 player in the class. FanGraphs slotted him sixth, while Baseball America ranked him fourth. All four publications had Burns and Arkansas lefty Hagen Smith as the top two pitchers in some order.
Burns was a high-profile draft prospect as a high schooler back in 2021. Teams weren’t willing to meet his asking price at the time, leading the 6’3″ righty to the University of Tennessee. Burns had two strong seasons in Knoxville and transferred to Wake Forest for his draft year. He started 16 times for the Demon Deacons, firing 100 innings with a 2.70 earned run average. Burns fanned nearly half the batters he faced and easily led Division I pitchers with 191 strikeouts. Smith was second in the nation with 161 punchouts. He kept his walk rate to a 7.7% clip and finished his college career with a 40% strikeout rate against a 7.6% walk percentage.
With that level of dominance, it’s not surprising that prospect evaluators suggest Burns has a top-of-the-rotation ceiling. Reports credit him with an upper-90s fastball that can run as high as 100 or 101 MPH. That pitch and his wipeout slider have each gotten 70 or 80 grades on the 20-80 scouting scale. Burns’ curveball and changeup are a bit behind the fastball/slider combination and scouting reports point to some effort in his delivery, but there’s not much question about his ability to stick as a starter. Both Law and McDaniel note that he could move quickly through the minors.
Cincinnati selected another Wake Forest righty, Rhett Lowder, in the top 10 a year ago. They’re hopeful that duo will join Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott as part of a homegrown starting staff. There’s injury risk with any group of young pitchers and the Reds will need more than five starters on an annual basis, but that quintet could be the nucleus of one of the sport’s best rotations if things break right over the next couple seasons.
