Charlie Morton

The Astros have made an initial offer to bring right-hander Charlie Morton back to Houston, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The dollar amount of the reported offer is yet unclear, though Nightengale does specify that it’s a one-year contract with an option for a second year.

Vague as the terms may still be, it seems reasonable to expect that the total value of the pact of for less than $17.9MM. Houston surprisingly declined to make a qualifying offer at that rate to Morton, so it’d be curious to see them turn around and offer Morton anything north of that sum.

Morton, who turned 35 last week, at one point voiced uncertainty as to whether he planned to continue his playing career beyond the 2018 campaign, but he recently stated that he planned to continue pitching and would “love” to return to the Astros. However, he’s also made clear that he doesn’t plan to keep playing into his late 30s, citing a desire to spend time with his growing family. To that end, Morton suggested to The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan back in April that proximity to his wife’s family in Delaware could be a factor, were he to consider teams outside of Houston. The Phillies and Nationals would most closely meet that criteria.

Whether Morton wants to pitch another two years isn’t certain, but there’s little doubt that he should be able to find a strong multi-year offer on the open market after rapidly elevating his status upon signing with the Astros. Morton’s two-year, $14MM with Houston proved to be a remarkable bargain, as the righty made 55 starts in 2017-18 and pitched to an excellent 3.36 ERA with 10.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.92 HR/9 and a 49.6 percent ground-ball rate. Perhaps, given the uncertainty about how long he wants to continue his career, a one-year pact with a substantial value and some form of vesting or player option would hold appeal to Morton. However, a guaranteed two-year deal should materialize in free agency if he wishes to lock himself into another couple of years.

If there was any doubt as to whether Charlie Morton would continue his playing career following comments in which he openly pondered retirement, the right-hander indicated last night that he hopes to return for a 12th big league season at the very least (Twitter link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). “I’d love to keep playing,” Morton said after last night’s game. “I’d love to be an Astro. I’d love to be a part of this again. Ultimately, it’s not really up to me. It’s not solely up to me.”

Morton’s most recent indications were that, so long as he didn’t suffer any notable injury in the season’s final month, “chances are” he’d continue his career. His intentions seem all the clearer now. Set to turn 35 next month, Morton has previously indicated that he’ll be selective about the team with which he signs and has emphasized that if he were to continue pitching, the Astros are his ideal fit. Thursday night’s comments seem to double down on that line of thinking. If a return doesn’t come together for whatever reason, Morton indicated earlier this year that proximity to his wife’s family in Delaware could be an important geographic factor should he look at offers from other teams.

It seems all but certain that the Astros will issue a $17.9MM qualifying offer to Morton, so speculatively speaking, perhaps that’ll be a simple avenue for him to return to Houston in 2019. However, there’s little doubt that if he wanted to seek maximum value in free agency, Morton could trounce that figure on the heels of a pair of eye-opening campaigns with the ’Stros. Morton has made 55 starts for Houston across the past two seasons, pitching to a pristine 3.36 ERA with 10.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.92 HR/9 and a 49.6 percent ground-ball rate. At this point, he’s probably among baseball’s 25 to 30 best starting pitchers — an ascension that seems rapid and out of the blue but is no more sudden than the surge that netted a 37-year-old Rich Hill a three-year deal in free agency two offseasons ago.

It’s not clear exactly how long Morton wishes to continue his career, and the right-hander himself may not even truly know the answer to that question at this time. But it’d be a surprise if he didn’t receive a qualifying offer, and if chooses to explore the open market rather than agree to a quick return to Houston, it’s at least plausible that he could more than double the $40.7MM he’s made in his career on his next contract. One way or the other, he’s about to cash in on a massive raise from the modest two-year, $14MM deal that initially brought him to Houston.

Charlie Morton has said on multiple occasions in the past that he’s unsure of how long he’ll continue playing — most recently telling The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan back in April that he is “not going to keep playing for a long time” while pondering the possibility of retirement following the current season. At the time, Morton listed numerous factors — his growing family, his health, the quality of his performance, a team’s proximity to his wife’s family in Delaware — as some of the numerous factors that would influence his decision.

Morton once again commented on his future this weekend when chatting with Kaplan’s colleague, Ken Rosenthal, and while he stopped short of a definitive declaration, he did imply that a 2019 return could be in the cards (subscription link). Morton plainly stated that it’s becoming increasingly difficult to be apart from his wife and children, but he also suggested he still has the desire to compete at a high level: “If I stay healthy and throw well, chances are I’ll try to continue pitching.”

The 34-year-old Morton has certainly checked all the boxes in terms of health and his own personal performance; he’s just 8 2/3 innings shy of his career-high in terms of innings pitched and has turned in an excellent 3.15 ERA with 10.8 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.99 HR/9 and a 47.1 percent ground-ball rate. Morton did have a brief stint on the disabled list in late August/early September due to some discomfort in his right shoulder, but he required only a minimal 10-day absence. He’s allowed four runs with a 10-to-2 K/BB ratio in 11 innings since returning.

I’ve speculated in the past that Morton is a sensible candidate to accept a qualifying offer, as issuing a one-year offer in the range of $18MM is a veritable no-brainer for the Astros organization. That’d give Morton the opportunity to remain where he’s comfortable and earn at a relatively premium rate while keeping open the possibility retiring to spend time with his family following the 2019 season.

However, if Morton wants to pursue a more significant contract, such interest would surely be there in the offseason — even were he to turn down that QO. Already at this point, even just two full seasons into what looks to be a legitimate late-career breakout, he’s demonstrated more than Rich Hill had when Hill was able to secure a three-year, $48MM pact. Hill’s contract spanned his age-37 through age-39 seasons; Morton is turning 35 this November, meaning a three-year deal for him would end with the same season (age-37) with which Hill’s contract began.

Last year’s free-agent freeze rightly creates questions about what even the most compelling free agents can expect to earn in the upcoming offseason, but there’s certainly a case to be made that Morton has pitched himself into consideration for a deal that would top Hill’s $48MM guarantee — or at the very least, top his annual salary on a shorter-term arrangement. Even if a three-year deal offer doesn’t materialize, Morton should have little difficulty in finding one- and two-year offers that are enticing for a player whose career earnings to date sit a bit shy of $41MM.