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MLBTR Poll: Grading The Braves’ Recent Signings

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The Braves have easily been the offseason’s most active team in the early going. Atlanta has made a pair of rotation additions, signing southpaw Drew Smyly to a one-year, $11MM deal and bringing in Charlie Morton for one year at $15MM.

Single-year terms has become a staple of the Alex Anthopoulos regime in Atlanta. They’ve had plenty of success with short-term additions of Josh Donaldson and Marcell Ozuna, but last winter’s Cole Hamels signing didn’t pan out as the left-hander’s year was derailed by injury. The front office decided to roll the dice on a new pair of veteran hurlers after coming up one game shy of a pennant in 2020.

Each of Morton and Smyly was indeed projected by the MLBTR staff to ink one-year deals this winter. However, both pitchers pulled in a bit more money than anticipated during what is widely expected to be a frigid offseason in the wake of teams suffering massive revenue losses. Morton picked up $7MM more than anticipated, while Smyly’s deal came in $6MM above expectation.

There are plenty of reasons the Braves’ front office decided to jump the market on these specific pitchers. Morton put up ace-caliber numbers from 2017-19 and rounded back into form down the stretch after a difficult start this past season. Smyly has battled injuries and inconsistency throughout his career but flashed a new level for the Giants in 2020. The 31-year-old showed massively improved raw stuff and generated whiffs in bunches en route to a 2.01 FIP. He’ll need to prove he can sustain those gains for more than 26.1 innings, but it’s easy to see the upside.

One other factor worth considering: the qualifying offer. Neither Morton nor Smyly has received one in the past, meaning they’ll be eligible for the QO next winter if they spend the entire season in Atlanta.  It’s not especially likely either player warrants a QO in eleven months. Morton would be entering his age-38 season and might not even wish to keep playing; Smyly’s a year removed from a 6.24 ERA season. But the same would’ve been true of Kevin Gausman a year ago, and he sufficiently rehabilitated his value during his platform year to earn a qualifying offer from the Giants this offseason.

So, how do MLBTR readers feel about the Braves’ two new additions? Grade each deal from the team’s perspective. (poll links for app users)

 

Latest On Twins’ Search For Starting Pitching

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Right-hander Charlie Morton came off the free-agent board Tuesday when he signed with Atlanta, but the Braves had competition in the form of the Twins. Minnesota “had a lot of interest” in Morton, according to Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News. Geography may have worked against the Twins, though, as Morton has said in the past he prefers to pitch on the East Coast.

Even after missing out on Morton, the Twins still have a mostly set rotation with 2020 Cy Young contender Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda and Randy Dobnak among those in the fold. However, with Jake Odorizzi, Rich Hill and Homer Bailey currently on the open market, the team hopes to address its rotation from outside, as Dan Hayes of The Athletic relays.

“Any time you lose Jake Odorizzi, Rich Hill and Homer Bailey to free agency, you’re not going to be complacent,” general manager Thad Levine said. “You realize there are pretty significant holes to fill. But we certainly don’t go into this offseason as if we have to fill three holes.”

Hill, 40, was the only member of that trio to deliver quality results over a sizable sample of innings for the Twins last season, but according to Hayes, they haven’t closed the door on re-signing Odorizzi – who MLBTR predicts will earn a three-year, $39MM payday this offseason. Otherwise, though, it doesn’t appear they’ll shop at the top of the market for pitching help, as Hayes writes it’s “unlikely” the Twins will go after the No. 1 free agent available, Trevor Bauer, or pursue trades for the Rays’ Blake Snell or the Cubs’ Yu Darvish.

[RELATED: Twins Offseason Outlook]

Braves Sign Charlie Morton

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The Braves have signed their second veteran starter in as many weeks, announcing on Tuesday that they’ve agreed to a one-year pact with right-hander Charlie Morton. The contract will pay Morton, a client of Jet Sports Management, a guaranteed $15MM for the 2021 season. (The Braves are one of the few clubs who divulge contract details in their press releases.) There are no incentives or no-trade clauses in the deal, tweets ESPN’s Buster Olney. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the Rays were the other finalist in Morton’s market.

Charlie Morton | Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The loss of Morton surely stings for Rays fans, particularly given that his $15MM guarantee matches the sum for which the Rays could’ve retained him had they simply exercised a club option for the upcoming season. It seems that Tampa Bay had hoped to keep Morton at a lesser rate for the upcoming season, perhaps seeking to leverage their proximity to his family’s home in Bradenton, but the market for Morton proved strong. He’ll remain reasonably close to his family — it’s a 75-minute flight from Atlanta to Tampa — and now return to the organization that originally drafted him back in 2002.

Morton, 37, battled some shoulder fatigue and was limited to nine starts and 38 innings in 2020, pitching to a 4.74 ERA in that short time. The down time on the IL after his first two starts clearly did him some good, however, as the veteran righty returned with improved velocity and a 3.72 ERA in seven starts before going on to post a 2.70 ERA through 20 postseason innings. And of course, Morton is just one year removed from a third-place Cy Young finish with the Rays in 2019, when he worked to a 3.05 ERA and 2.81 FIP with 11.1 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 through 194 2/3 regular-season frames.

As has been general manager Alex Anthopoulos’ modus operandi since assuming his post in Atlanta, the Braves have acted quickly to address a clear need — and done so with the addition of short-term contracts for veterans. Morton joins southpaw Drew Smyly, who inked a one-year deal worth $11MM last week, as two new faces who’ll round out the Braves’ rotation behind Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Ian Anderson. The addition of Morton and Smyly likely pushes Kyle Wright out of the Atlanta rotation, although he has minor league options remaining and could head to Triple-A Gwinnett as a depth piece in the event of injury.

The Braves’ signings of both Morton and Smyly will at least allow them to entertain the idea of dealing from their pitching depth to address other needs and strengthen other areas this winter, though. Not only is Wright displaced from the rotation, but each of Sean Newcomb, Bryse Wilson, Touki Toussaint, Huascar Ynoa, Tucker Davidson, Patrick Weigel and Jasseel De La Cruz is now without a clear path to big league innings — at least in the rotation.

Soroka may require some extra time to recover from an Achilles tear that ended his 2020 season, though an exact timeline on his return is still unclear. Wright is the likeliest option to stand in for him early in the year. Some of the names on that alternate arms be used as relievers and others in minor league rotations, but the Atlanta organization clearly has some young pitchers to peddle if they’re interested in virtually any trade asset on the market this winter.

As for the Braves’ payroll, the addition of Morton gives the team $93.7MM guaranteed to 10 players. Adding in an arbitration class projected to be worth roughly $20MM would push the payroll north of $113MM, although the Braves have some non-tender candidates among their ranks (e.g. Luke Jackson, Johan Camargo, Adam Duvall). The club could also look to move the final guaranteed year of center fielder Ender Inciarte’s contract in the coming months.

All of that is crucial to bear in mind as the team looks to retain free-agent left fielder Marcell Ozuna — or possibly to replace him if he lands elsewhere. We’ve not seen Anthopoulos spend at the levels it’d take to sign Ozuna since he took over the GM post in Atlanta, though it’s at least possible he’ll break that trend for Ozuna. To this point, Will Smith’s three-year, $40MM contract is the largest free-agent deal issued under this front office regime. It’s not known what extent the Liberty Media-owned Braves can further spend, but they’re a ways shy of the more than $150MM payroll they stood to carry on Opening Day 2020 (prior to the league shutdown and subsequent prorating of salaries).

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that the two sides were close to a deal. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the agreement and the contract’s value (via Twitter).

Braves Interested In Charlie Morton

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The Braves addressed their rotation when they signed left-hander Drew Smyly to a one-year, $11MM contract last week. But that may not be it for Atlanta, which has “strong interest” in free-agent right-hander Charlie Morton, according to Mark Bowman of MLB.com.

Signing in Atlanta would be a full-circle move for Morton, who was a third-round pick of the team in 2002 and someone who made his major league debut with the club in 2008. Morton then moved on to the Pirates and Phillies from 2009-16, but he didn’t turn into a high-end starter until ’17 as a member of the Astros. Since then, Morton has been a terrific regular-season pitcher and a lights-out playoff performer. The 37-year-old owns a 3.34 ERA/3.27 FIP with 10.64 K/9, 2.98 BB/9 and a 48.4 percent groundball rate through 546 1/3 innings over the past four seasons.

Morton has said in the past that he would like to stay on the East Coast, which could benefit the Braves if they do earnestly pursue him in free agency. And even after signing Smyly, there’s still room for at least one more proven rotation acquisition. Along with Smyly, the Braves have Max Fried, Mike Soroka and Ian Anderson as set starters for next year, but there is space for a wily vet like Morton.

Charlie Morton Drawing Early Interest

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NOV. 9: There are “at least eight to 10 teams” interested in Morton, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The Rays probably won’t offer him more than $10MM, Feinsand hears.

NOV. 6: Charlie Morton immediately became one of the most talented pitchers available in free agency when the Rays declined his $15MM club option. Unsurprisingly, the 36-year-old (37 next week) is drawing strong interest early on, reports Robert Murray of Fansided.

During his last trip through free agency, Morton prioritized geographic fit when signing with Tampa Bay. That’ll probably be the case again this offseason, with teams located near his Florida home gaining a distinct advantage. To that end, a reunion with the Rays for less than the $15MM option price still seems in play. During the season, Morton alluded to the possibility of retirement as well, but there’ll seemingly be plenty of opportunity for him should he want to continue playing. The MLBTR staff projects Morton for a one-year, $8MM deal this winter with the Mets as a potential landing spot.

Morton didn’t match his Cy Young finalist 2019 performance this past season, pitching to a 4.74 ERA over nine regular season starts. His peripherals were quite strong, though, and Morton still averaged around 94 MPH on his fastball. There’s plenty of reason to believe he’d upgrade basically any rotation around the league.

AL East Notes: Morton, Zunino, Walker, Red Sox, Yolmer

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Charlie Morton “wasn’t surprised” that the Rays declined to exercise their $15MM club option on his services, but the veteran right-hander told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that the team’s decision “doesn’t mean we won’t try to work something out.  If there’s mutual interest, the next step is gauging what that looks like.”  Rays GM Erik Neander indicated yesterday that the team indeed hoped to bring Morton back for a third season.  If an acceptable deal can’t be worked out with the Rays or another club, Morton reiterated to Topkin that he’ll gauge whether he wants to keep playing, weighing such “typical factors” as his health, playing for a contender, and “does it make sense financially and geographically?”

The Rays declined options on both Morton and (at $4.5MM) catcher Mike Zunino yesterday.  Jet Sports Management represents both players, and agent B.B. Abbott told Topkin in a separate piece that there aren’t any hard feelings about the contractual decisions.  “Their first choice was to be in Tampa, and it probably still is their first choice,” Abbott said, but now that Morton and Zunino are on the open market, “they owe it to themselves to see what’s out there.”

More from the AL East…

  • Taijuan Walker figures to get a lot of attention in free agency this winter, but there is mutual interest between Walker and the Blue Jays in a return to Toronto’s rotation, Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith writes.  Acquired in a trade from the Mariners in late August, Walker posted excellent numbers (1.37 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 2.27 K/BB rate) in his six starts in a Jays uniform.  Beyond the on-field results, Walker was also impressed by both the Jays’ long-term potential as contenders, and how the club treats its players.  “They have really good staff, coaches, training staff.  For me, it’s all about comfort and people,” Walker said.  “Being connected and having that family, and that’s what it felt like.”  Once one of baseball’s most highly-touted pitching prospects, injuries cost Walker virtually all of the 2018 and 2019 seasons but he has somewhat revived his stock after his solid 2020 performance.
  • While the Red Sox have interviewed several candidates to be their next manager, “the managerial search appears to be centered on determining if Chaim Bloom and Alex Cora can work well together,” the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham writes.  Of course, Cora was already Boston’s manager when Bloom was hired as the club’s chief baseball officer last October, though Cora’s firing and subsequent one-year suspension are undoubtedly considerations for Red Sox ownership and the front office in deciding whether or not to bring Cora back.  While Cora’s return has been widely speculated, Abraham isn’t sure a rehire “is automatic,” opining that Cora could potentially wait to see if another high-profile job (perhaps with the Mets) becomes available.
  • Now that Yolmer Sanchez has been claimed on waivers, the Orioles have some extra depth as they consider other infield moves, as MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski writes.  No decision has yet been made about Jose Iglesias’ $3.5MM club option, and with Sanchez now on hand as a second base candidate, the O’s could potentially non-tender Hanser Alberto, who is projected to earn between $2.3MM and $4.1MM in arbitration (depending on how arb salaries are calculated this winter).  Sanchez is himself eligible for arbitration, however, and his projected $6.2MM arb figure last winter was the chief reason why the White Sox non-tendered him last November.

Rays To Decline Options On Charlie Morton, Mike Zunino

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The Rays are not going to exercise their club options on right-hander Charlie Morton or catcher Mike Zunino, vice president of baseball operations Erik Neander told reporters (including Juan Toribio of MLB.com and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Morton’s option was valued at $15MM, while Zunino stood to make $4.5MM if his option were exercised. Neither player will receive a buyout and both are now free agents.

Tampa Bay is leaving the door open to bringing either player back, Neander adds (via Toribio). They’re particularly interested in retaining Morton, it seems, with Neander noting the parties will look for a “creative” way to keep him in the fold (Topkin link).

Both players had important roles on the Rays’ pennant-winning 2020 club, but Morton is the more notable of the two. The 36-year-old (37 next month) was a Cy Young finalist just a year ago, when he tossed 194.2 innings of 3.05 ERA ball. He took a bit of a step back over nine regular-season starts this season but he still looks like a strong mid-rotation starter at the very least. He reaffirmed that with four stellar postseason starts.

Morton immediately becomes one of the best pitchers on the free agent market, but it remains to be seen how much interest he’ll have in exploring deals with other teams. The veteran makes his home in Florida, a key point in his decision to sign with the Rays as a free agent after the 2018 season. Earlier this month, Morton said he’d seriously discuss the possibility of retirement with his family if the Rays declined his option. At the moment, though, he “is believed to want to continue his career,” hears Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

As for Zunino, the call was probably a bit easier for the front office. The former third overall pick has started just over half the Rays’ games behind the plate the past two years but hasn’t hit much. Since Tampa Bay acquired him from the Mariners, Zunino has hit just .161/.233/.323 over 373 plate appearances. He struck out in 64 of his 140 plate appearances between the regular season and playoffs in 2020. The well-regarded defender hits the market at just 29 years of age, though.

Astros, Rays Set Game 7 Starters

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The Astros are one win away from pulling off one of the greatest postseason comebacks in Major League Baseball history. After dropping the first three games of the American League Championship Series against the Rays, they have won three in a row to force a Game 7 on Saturday. The Astros will use right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. as their starter then, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic tweets. The Rays, hoping to stave off a collapse, will turn to righty Charlie Morton, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.

McCullers, who debuted with the Astros in 2015, has been through the postseason wringer with the perennial contenders. He made his first playoff outing as a rookie and has since contributed 43 frames of 2.93 ERA pitching with 9.6 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9 in the postseason, including closing out the Yankees in the Astros’ 2017 ALCS victory in Game 7. As for this fall’s playoffs, the 27-year-old has tossed 11 innings of five-earned run ball, and he last took the mound for the Astros in their Game 2 loss in this series on Monday. McCullers totaled seven innings with four runs (only one earned) on four hits and no walks in that game, and he put up 11 strikeouts.

Morton got the better of McCullers in the pair’s previous matchup, during which he fired five scoreless frames. The 36-year-old Morton helped lead the Astros to a championship in 2017 with his excellent playoff performance, but he could now end their season with his current club. Not only has Morton largely been a tremendous regular-season pitcher since he broke out as an Astro during their title-winning campaign, but he has been as good or better in the fall, evidenced by his lifetime 3.16 ERA with 9.6 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 51 1/3 playoff innings. Based on the success he has had in the postseason, Morton seems well equipped to handle a do-or-die matchup.

Charlie Morton Addresses Future

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In advance of his start in tomorrow’s ALCS Game 2, Rays right-hander Charlie Morton addressed his long-term future with reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times and Jon Morosi of MLB Network). The 13-year MLB veteran suggested in February he might step away at the end of the 2020 season. That’s still a possibility, but Morton made clear today the decision is partly in the team’s hands.

The Rays hold a $15MM club option on Morton’s services for 2021, and the pitcher said he’d be happy to play out that deal if the team exercises the option. Morton, who makes his home in Florida, said he’d “be completely honored and privileged to continue to play for the Rays” next season. If Tampa Bay were to decline the option, though, he said he’d seriously discuss with his family whether to pursue another opportunity or to retire.

$15MM is seemingly a more than reasonable price for a pitcher of Morton’s caliber. The 36-year-old (37 in November) only pitched to a 4.74 ERA across nine starts in 2020, but his underlying numbers were far more favorable. Morton’s 24.7% strikeout rate and 12.1% swinging strike rate are down a bit from his 2019 performance, but each mark remains a bit better than league average. Equally important, Morton’s 93.9MPH average fastball velocity is more than sufficient to continue to get outs, even if it’s down a tick from last season.

Of course, Morton has quite recently performed like one of the top arms in the game. He finished 3rd in AL Cy Young voting just last season on the heels of a 3.05 ERA/2.81 FIP over 194.2 innings. From 2017-19, Morton combined for a 3.24 ERA in 508.1 innings while holding opposing hitters to a .218/.296/.359 slash line. Even if one doesn’t expect Morton to return to those ace-like levels, he still looks like a strong mid-rotation starter. Surely, the Rays won’t overreact to a couple months of bad run prevention numbers, considering Morton’s other strengths.

That said, Tampa Bay perennially runs one of the lowest payrolls in the league, leaving the front office constantly on the hunt for advantages on the margins. Teams are also generally expected to curtail spending league-wide in the wake of massive coronavirus-driven revenue losses. That makes it difficult to bank on any team’s spending habits in the coming months.

Charlie Morton To Start ALCS Game 2

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The Rays will turn to right-hander Charlie Morton to start tomorrow afternoon’s ALCS Game 2 against the Astros, per Juan Toribio of MLB.com. Manager Kevin Cash indicated earlier today (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) that this would be the likely course of action, but Tampa Bay held off on making the announcement official until speaking with Morton before tonight’s game. The veteran was forced to warm up in the bullpen during Friday’s ALDS Game 5 against the Yankees; fortunately, reliever Diego Castillo locked down a 2-1 victory without necessitating Blake Snell or Morton come into the game.

Morton getting the ball tomorrow hardly comes as a surprise. Snell will start tonight, while fellow high-end starter Tyler Glasnow started on Friday. Morton, 36, only posted a 4.74 ERA in 38 innings this season. He was plagued by a .355 opponents’ BABIP, though, and his strikeout (24.7%) and walk (5.9%) rates remained strong.

Morton will be a challenging task for a Houston lineup quite familiar with him. The veteran pitched for the Astros from 2017-18, famously slamming the door out of the bullpen in Game 7 of the 2017 World Series. The Astros will counter with Lance McCullers, Jr., who actually started that Fall Classic clincher against the Dodgers.

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