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Braves Notes: Dansby Swanson, Charlie Morton, Kenley Jansen

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After following up their underdog 2021 Cinderella World Series win with an improved 101-win season, the Braves have been eliminated from the 2022 postseason by the Phillies. With their 2022 season in the rearview mirror, General Manager Alex Anthopoulos will be hard at work improving the already impressive Braves core.

Perhaps the most important question facing the Braves as they head into the offseason is their hole at shortstop. Atlanta native Dansby Swanson has been the Braves’ starting shortstop since 2016, and will be a free agent for the first this offseason after receiving a $10MM salary during his final trip through the arbitration process. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that the Braves had opened extension talks with Swanson in mid-August, but there has yet to be a tangible result.

Swanson, who is coming off his fourth consecutive strong season, slashed .277/.329/.447 while posting the highest Outs Above Average (20) among qualified shortstops en route to his first All-Star appearance. He joins Trea Turner, and, if they exercise their opt-outs, Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts as the top options at short.

When asked about his thoughts on free agency and potentially leaving the Braves, Swanson responded that free agency is “the last thing on my mind,” per Mark Bowman of MLB.com. However, Anthopoulos confirmed in a press conference earlier today that there is mutual interest in getting a deal done, but he didn’t provide specific figures, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

The Braves, who have become notorious in recent seasons for signing players in the early stage of their career to ‘team-friendly’ contracts (Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, Spencer Strider, Austin Riley), currently have roughly $186MM committed to the 2023 season, not factoring in arbitration, per Roster Resource. However, out of arbitration-eligible players, only starter Max Fried is predicted to significantly impact the Braves’ payroll, with other arbitration-eligible players expected to earn under $3MM if they are tendered contracts.

Importantly, in the 2021 offseason, the Braves reportedly offered long-time first baseman Freddie Freeman a five-year contract in the $135MM-$140MM range. When talks stalled, the Braves moved to acquire Matt Olson from the Athletics, signing him to an eight-year, $168MM contract. Freeman then went on to sign with the Dodgers on a six-year, $162MM contract.

The Braves, potentially, already have Swanson’s replacement in Vaughn Grissom, who posted a strong .291/.353/.440 line in 151 at-bats after being called up in mid-August. Grissom has primarily played second in his brief Major League career but came up through the Minors as a shortstop. If Swanson is re-signed, Grissom may be forced to transition to the outfield or work as a utility player with Riley and Albies patrolling the infield.

Transitioning to the mound, starter Charlie Morton was forced to exit yesterday’s game in the third inning after taking a line drive to his pitching elbow. Morton initially stayed in the game and completed the inning but was pulled by manager Brian Snitker after Snitker watched Morton warm up prior to the third inning. During an in-game interview, Snitker announced that x-rays showed no structural damage in Morton’s elbow, and that Morton wanted to try and continue to pitch, per Mike Axisa of CBS.

Morton had pitched two innings prior to leaving the game, giving up four hits and three runs, all on a Brandon Marsh homer. Morton, who turns 39 in November was a steady force in the Braves’ rotation, pitching to a 4.34 ERA in 172 innings (31 starts) with a strong 28.2% strikeout rate. His strong performance led to a one-year, $20MM contract extension for the 2023 season, with a $20MM club option for the 2024 campaign.

Reliever Kenley Jansen is entering free agency, but Anthopoulos has made it clear that the Braves would “love to have him back,” per Toscano. After leaving the Dodgers in free agency to join the Braves on a one-year, $16MM contract, Jansen led the National League in saves with 41, posting a 3.38 ERA in 64 innings with a lofty 32.7% strikeout rate. However, Jansen’s HardHit percentage spiked from 26.1% in 2021 to 32.5% in 2022, and his ground ball rate dropped from 37.3% to 29.1%, the second-lowest mark of his career.

If the Braves and Jansen are unable to come to an agreement, they likely have his successor in Raisel Iglesias who was acquired at the 2022 trade deadline in exchange for pitching prospect Tucker Davidson and Jesse Chavez. Since joining Atlanta, Iglesias has allowed only one run in 26 1/3 innings, resulting in a minuscule 0.32 ERA. These strong numbers are backed by a high 30.0% strikeout rate, a low 5.0% walk rate, and a solid 40.6% ground ball rate.

Braves Sign Charlie Morton To One-Year Extension

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The Braves announced this evening they’ve signed starter Charlie Morton to a one-year contract extension. He’ll make $20MM next season, and the sides tacked on a matching $20MM club option for the 2024 campaign with no buyout. The Braves are one of the few major league teams that announce contract terms.

Morton will stick around for a third season in Atlanta. Originally signed to a one-year, $15MM free agent deal over the 2020-21 offseason, he’s now signed late-season extensions in each of the past two years. In both cases, they’ve been a one-year, $20MM guarantee with a matching team option. Atlanta could’ve simply exercised the $20MM option for 2023 in Morton’s previous contract, but their preemptive agreement with the Wasserman client tacks on an additional option for the ’24 campaign.

There’s clearly a mutual comfort between the team and the 15-year MLB veteran. He’s been a durable and effective member of the starting rotation, avoiding the injured list during his first two campaigns in Atlanta and starting 63 regular season contests. He made another four starts during the 2021 postseason. That didn’t end the way he’d have hoped personally, as Morton broke his right leg during his World Series start and had to be scratched from the roster. The club went on to defeat the Astros to secure the title, though, and Morton was back in action by the start of this season.

During his debut campaign in Atlanta, Morton worked to an excellent 3.34 ERA across 185 2/3 innings. He’s not been quite that effective this year, tossing 167 2/3 frames of 4.29 ERA ball heading into his final start of the season. The two-time All-Star’s strikeout rate has been almost identical in each season (28.6% in 2021, 28.4% this year), and he’s not shown any signs of physical decline. Morton has averaged 94.9 MPH on his four-seam and 81.2 MPH on his go-to curveball this season, not far off last year’s respective 95.5 MPH and 80.6 MPH marks.

It’s a similar story on a pitch-for-pitch basis. Morton has generated swinging strikes on 12.3% of his total offerings in both seasons. That’s above this year’s 10.7% league average for starters, and Morton has held a swinging strike rate in the 12% range for five straight years. Even with his 39th birthday less than two months away, Morton hasn’t lost anything from his raw arsenal or his ability to miss bats.

The biggest contributor to his overall dip in production was an atypical struggle to throw strikes early in the season. Morton walked 11 batters in four starts in April, surrendering 14 runs in 18 innings. He’d mostly found his footing from a command perspective by the time the calendar flipped to May. In 26 starts since May 1, he owns a 3.97 ERA with a 29.9% strikeout rate and a manageable 8.2% walk percentage. He’s held opposing hitters to a .218/.301/.384 line over that span. Morton was excellent between June and August before hitting another rough patch this month, posting a 5.27 ERA in five September starts.

The Braves aren’t much concerned about either his early-season control woes or a couple recent tough outings at the hands of the Mariners and Phillies. Morton’s velocity and strong strikeout and walk profile give plenty of reason for optimism he can remain an above-average starter next season, even as his ground-ball rate has dipped to a personal-low 39.7% clip.

Morton, meanwhile, seems content taking a year-by-year approach to his playing career. A longtime back-of-the-rotation grounder specialist with the Pirates, Morton reinvented himself as a strikeout artist with the Astros in 2017. After spending two seasons in Houston, he signed a two-year free agent deal with the Rays before what’ll be at least three consecutive seasons as a Brave. He’s reportedly set geographic limitations during his recent potential free agent trips, preferring to stay in the Southeastern part of the country to be closer to his family.

Of course, the Braves have far more than just locale to make them an appealing place to pitch. Morton remains part of a stellar roster that has the team on the verge of 100 wins and firmly in contention for another NL East title. He’s among a strong rotation led by star rookie Spencer Strider, All-Star Max Fried and breakout hurler Kyle Wright. Veteran Jake Odorizzi has occupied the fifth rotation spot since being acquired from the Astros at the trade deadline, but Atlanta also has rookie Bryce Elder and prospect Freddy Tarnok as promising depth options.

That entire group could return for 2023. Strider, Fried and Wright are all under club control. Odorizzi has to decide whether to trigger a $12.5MM player option or take a $6.25MM buyout and test free agency. Elder and Tarnok are controllable, as are former top prospect and mid-rotation arm Ian Anderson, Mike Soroka, Kyle Muller and Huascar Ynoa (although Ynoa is unlikely to pitch next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery recently).

That’s a number of options, reducing the urgency for the club to look outside the organization for rotation help. Signing Morton to an extension also continues the front office’s habit of trying to preserve as much of the current core as possible. Atlanta has also signed Matt Olson, Austin Riley and Michael Harris II to long-term deals this year, in addition to previous extensions for Ronald Acuña Jr., Travis d’Arnaud and Ozzie Albies.

Locking in another $20MM to next year’s books brings the team’s guaranteed commitments north of $165MM (assuming Odorizzi exercises his option), in the estimation of Roster Resource. That’s before considering the possibility of extending impending free agent shortstop Dansby Swanson or accounting for arbitration salaries for Fried, Soroka and high-leverage reliever A.J. Minter. It’s virtually certain they’ll top this year’s franchise-record $178MM Opening Day payroll, but it’s evidently comfortable territory for the Liberty Media ownership group on the heels of last season’s title and another forthcoming postseason trip that’s certain to include at least two home playoff games.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions: National League

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In the past two days, MLBTR has taken a look at how players with contractual options could impact the upcoming free agent class. We looked at players with vesting provisions on Tuesday before turning our attention to American League players under control via team options yesterday. Today, we’ll check in on their National League counterparts.

Braves

It has been strange year for Morton, who starred on last year’s World Series winner. He re-signed on a $20MM deal with a matching option for next season. Through 22 starts and 122 2/3 innings, the two-time All-Star has a slightly underwhelming 4.26 ERA. That’s largely attributable to a dreadful first couple months, however. He has an ERA of 3.55 or below in each of the past three months, carrying a cumulative 3.44 mark while holding opponents to a .198/.276/.369 line since June 1. Morton is still sitting in the mid-90’s with his fastball, striking batters out at a quality 27.3% clip and has ironed out his control after some uncharacteristic wildness through his first few starts. At first glance, a $20MM salary seems pricey for a pitcher entering his age-39 season with Morton’s overall numbers, but he’s not shown any signs of physical decline and has looked great lately. If he keeps at this pace for another two months, the Braves will probably welcome him back. That, of course, assumes Morton wants to continue playing. He’s hinted at retirement in years past and set fairly strict geographic limitations on his market during his latest trips to free agency.

Mets

The Mets acquired Vogelbach from the Pirates to add a left-handed platoon bat to what had been an underwhelming designated hitter mix. He’d hit .228/.338/.430 through 75 games in Pittsburgh and has raked at a .341/.473/.568 clip over his first couple weeks in Queens. For a negligible $1.5MM salary, keeping Vogelbach around feels like an easy call. He’s technically arbitration-eligible through 2024 regardless of whether the Mets exercise his option. The option price should be more affordable than whatever he’d receive through arbitration next offseason, so if the Mets surprisingly declined the option, they’d likely non-tender him entirely.

  • John Curtiss, RP ($775K option, arbitration-eligible through 2025)

There’s nothing new to report on Curtiss. He signed a big league deal just before Opening Day with the knowledge that he’d likely miss all of this season recovering from last August’s Tommy John surgery. He was immediately placed on the injured list. Next year’s option is valued at barely above the league minimum salary, so it’s just a matter of whether the Mets plan to devote him a roster spot all offseason. Curtiss is controllable through 2025 if the Mets keep him around.

Phillies

Segura has been the Phils’ primary second baseman for the past four seasons. He’s generally hit at a slightly above-average level, relying on excellent bat-to-ball skills to prop up an aggressive offensive approach. He’s paired that with above-average defensive ratings at the keystone. He’s lost most of this season after fracturing his finger on a bunt attempt, but he’s healthy now and performing at his typical level. Across 195 plate appearances, he owns a .284/.324/.421 line with seven home runs. Segura is a good player, but a $16MM call will probably be too much for a Philadelphia club that already has five players on the books for more than $20MM next season (and will add a sixth notable salary — more on that shortly). The market also hasn’t been particularly robust for second base-only players in recent years. Segura will be headed into his age-33 season.

This one’s a no-brainer for the Phillies to exercise. Nola is one of the sport’s top pitchers, a picture of durability and consistently above-average numbers (aside from a blip in his 2021 ERA that didn’t align with still excellent peripherals). One can argue whether Nola’s a true ace, but he’s at least a high-end #2 caliber arm. He’s given the Phils 144 2/3 innings of 3.17 ERA ball this season, striking out 27.9% of batters faced against a minuscule 3.6% walk rate. Even on a $16MM salary, he’s a bargain.

Reds

Wilson signed a complex free agent deal with the Yankees during the 2020-21 offseason. A one-year guarantee, the deal contained player and team options for 2022. Wilson and the Yankees agreed that if he triggered his $2.3MM player option for 2022, the team would get a 2023 option valued at $500K above that year’s league minimum salary. That provision carried over to the Reds when Wilson was dealt to Cincinnati at the 2021 trade deadline, and he indeed exercised the player option last winter. Next year’s league minimum is set at $720K, so Wilson’s option price will come in at $1.22MM.

It’s certainly affordable, but it still seems likely the Reds will let him go. The 34-year-old (35 next week) southpaw underwent Tommy John surgery in June, meaning he won’t return until late in the ’23 season at the earliest. He made just five appearances this season and posted a 5.29 ERA over 34 innings last year.

Brewers

Wong presents a tricky case for a Milwaukee club that typically runs slightly below-average player payrolls. He’s hitting .255/.336/.425, offense that checks in around 11 percentage points above league average according to wRC+. It’s among the better showings of his career. He doesn’t have huge power, but Wong’s an effective baserunner with plus bat-to-ball skills and good strike zone awareness. He’s a good but certainly not elite offensive player, one who’s performed about as well as Milwaukee could’ve reasonably hoped when signing him over the 2020-21 offseason.

What seems likely to determine whether the Brewers bring him back is how they evaluate his defense. A two-time Gold Glove award winner, Wong has rated as one of the sport’s best defensive second basemen for the majority of his career. Public metrics have unanimously panned his work this year, though, with Statcast’s Outs Above Average pegging him as the worst defensive second baseman in 2022. Wong’s speed has also taken a step back, and perhaps the Brewers think he’s just past his physical prime as he nears his 32nd birthday. If that’s the case, they probably buy him out, since Wong’s value has been so heavily concentrated in his glove. If they feel this year’s downturn is just a blip and expect he’ll return to his old ways on defense, then keeping him around makes sense. Like Segura, Wong could be affected by the market’s recent devaluation of second basemen. It’s also worth noting that Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that Milwaukee was open to trade offers on Wong before this summer’s deadline. They didn’t move him, but it’s perhaps an indication the front office is leaning towards a buyout.

Boxberger has spent the past couple seasons on low-cost contracts in Milwaukee and generally performed well. He carries a 2.51 ERA through 43 innings this season, albeit with slightly worse than average strikeout and walk rates. Boxberger has a career-worst 8.4% swinging strike rate, and the front office could view his strong run prevention mark as little more than a mirage. The financial cost is modest enough they could nevertheless keep him around, particularly since manager Craig Counsell has trusted Boxberger enough to give him plenty of high-leverage opportunities (largely with good results).

Rockies

Oberg is technically controllable for another season via club option, but the Rockies will obviously decline it. He earned a three-year extension after the 2019 season on the heels of two consecutive sub-3.00 ERA campaigns, no small feat for a reliever calling Coors Field home. Unfortunately, Oberg has dealt with persistent blood clotting issues that prevented him throwing from a single major league pitch throughout the course of the contract. The 32-year-old hasn’t officially announced his retirement, but he admitted in May he’s no longer actively pursuing a return to the field. He’s taken on a role in the Colorado scouting department to stay involved with the organization.

Dodgers

  • Max Muncy, INF ($13MM option, $1.5MM buyout)

One of the game’s best hitters from 2018-21, Muncy has had a disappointing season thus far. Seemingly nagged by health issues tied to a ligament tear he suffered in his elbow late last season, he’s had a huge downturn in his offensive production. Muncy still boasts elite strike zone awareness, but his results on contact are way down. Overall, he carries a meager .180/.317/.360 line across 366 trips to the plate.

Still, given what Muncy’s shown himself capable of in the past, it seems unlikely the Dodgers let him go to save $11.5MM. This is an organization that annually runs one of the league’s highest payrolls, and they’ve shown a willingness to place one-year bets on players with upside but risk (e.g. tendering a $17MM arbitration contract to Cody Bellinger on the heels of a .165/.240/.302 season disrupted by injuries). They’ll probably do the same with Muncy and hoping he rediscovers his prior form with another offseason to rehab his elbow.

The Dodgers signed Duffy to a one-year guarantee this spring knowing he wasn’t likely to factor into the plans until midseason. He’d been shooting for a June return but has still yet to make his Dodgers debut, although he’s reportedly throwing at the team’s Arizona complex. It’s unlikely the Dodgers bring him back for $7MM given his recent health woes, but he could change those plans if he makes it back to the mound late in the season and looks like a potential impact arm, as he did at times with the Royals.

Hudson signed a one-year guarantee over the offseason and quickly emerged as a key high-leverage option for manager Dave Roberts. He dominated over 24 1/3 innings, pitching to a 2.22 ERA with an excellent 30.9% strikeout rate while averaging north of 97 MPH on his fastball. The veteran righty looked like one of the sport’s best relievers for two months, but he unfortunately blew out his knee trying to field a ground-ball. He tore his left ACL and is done for the year. The Dodgers could still roll the dice given how well he’d pitched before the injury, but that’s no longer a foregone conclusion. A $5.5MM decision isn’t onerous — particularly for L.A. — but there’s plenty of risk in Hudson’s profile given the injury and the fact that he’ll be headed into his age-36 season.

The Dodgers added the veteran Alberto on a fairly surprising big league deal. He’s been a below-average offensive player for three years running, with his solid contact skills not quite compensating for a lack of power and one of the game’s most aggressive approaches. He’s played a limited utility role, serving as a right-handed bench bat capable of splitting his time between second and third base. Next year’s option price is very affordable, but the Dodgers can probably find a hitter with a bit more punch to play the role Alberto has assumed.

Nelson underwent Tommy John surgery last August, but the Dodgers brought him back for the league minimum salary to get a cheap option on his services for next year. He’s been on the injured list for all of 2022, as expected. Whether the Dodgers keep him will depend on how he looks at the start of the offseason, but $1.1MM for a 33-year-old who posted a 1.86 ERA and punched out 37.9% of his opponents in 29 innings when last healthy is beyond reasonable.

Padres

The Padres have spent the past few years trying to get out from under the money they owe Myers. The extension to which they signed him in January 2017 never worked out, as he’d been a roughly average hitter aside from a monster showing in the shortened 2020 campaign up until this season. The 2022 season has been a disaster, as Myers owns a .233/.277/.295 showing through 159 plate appearances and has lost two months to a right knee injury. He’s healthy now but relegated to fourth outfield duty. Myers will probably find a big league opportunity somewhere this offseason, but it’ll come with a new team and with a substantial pay cut.

Giants

Longoria is nearing the end of an extension he first signed with the Rays a decade ago. His production dipped late in his stint with Tampa Bay, and Longoria slogged through a trio of mediocre seasons through his first four years in San Francisco. He’s had an offensive resurgence over the past two years, carrying a .254/.340/.468 line in 470 plate appearances going back to the start of 2021. Longoria’s still a good hitter and capable defender at the hot corner, but he’s dealt with plenty of injury concerns as he’s gotten into his late 30s. He’s gone on the injured list five times in the last two seasons, including long-term absences for a shoulder sprain and hand surgery. The hefty buyout means it’d only be an extra $8MM for San Francisco to keep him around, but it seems likely they’ll look to get younger at the hot corner. It’s possible the three-time All-Star takes the decision out of their hands entirely, as he told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle in June that he’s not ruling out retiring after this season.

NL East Notes: Morton, Braves, Allan, Nationals

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As Charlie Morton continues to recover from a fractured fibula, the veteran righty said last week that he is “mostly caught up” to where he’d be physically at this point in a normal offseason, The Athletic’s David O’Brien writes.  Morton did caution that he wouldn’t know for sure until he actually got back to regular action in a Spring Training environment, though for now, all seems good for Morton as he approaches his 15th Major League season.  Still in fine form last year, Morton was a big contributor to the Braves’ championship team, though the righty’s participation in the World Series was limited to just 2 1/3 innings after he was hit in the leg by a ball off the bat of Yuli Gurriel during Game One.  Three of Morton’s seven outs were recorded after the injury, as Morton gutted out the pain as long as he could.

Assuming Morton is healthy, he’ll represent one less question mark for an Atlanta roster that is already largely set (with the obvious exception of first base and the Freddie Freeman situation).  With the lockout now forcing some type of shortened or even a rushed Spring Training, this could play to the Braves’ favor, as they already have a familiar chemistry between the coaching staff and the players, plus most of the World Series-winning core group will be returning.

More from the NL East…

  • Mets prospect Matt Allan underwent ulnar nerve transposition surgery in January, the right-hander told The New York Daily News’ Deesha Thosar and other reporters.  The procedure shouldn’t have much impact on Allan’s overall timeline for getting back onto the mound, as Allan was already expected to miss most or possibly all of the 2022 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last May.  There is still a chance Allan could make it back this year, and he is making good progress in his TJ recovery, with Allan slated to start playing catch in about two weeks’ time.  Allan (who turns 21 in April) was a third-round pick in the 2019 draft and was included in several top-100 prospects lists prior to the start of the 2021 season.
  • With Ryan Zimmerman’s retirement, the Nationals have a need for another first baseman to complement Josh Bell, and MASNsports.com’s Bobby Blanco figures the team will replace Zimmerman with another veteran free agent.  There’s a chance Washington might look at an internal option but none really stand out.  Mike Ford is a player who somewhat bridges both worlds, as he was a National before the club non-tendered him in November, and Blanco wonders if the Nats might re-sign Ford at a lower price tag when the lockout is over.

Charlie Morton Undergoes Surgery To Repair Fractured Fibula

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Oct. 29: Morton underwent surgery to repair the fracture, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. He’s expected to be ready for Spring Training 2022.

Oct. 26: Braves starter Charlie Morton fractured his right fibula during tonight’s game against the Astros, the club announced. He’ll obviously miss the remainder of the World Series, but the team announced that he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training.

Morton got the start in tonight’s World Series opener. He was struck in the leg by a Yuli Gurriel comebacker that turned into a groundout to lead off the second inning. That ball evidently broke Morton’s leg, but he incredibly remained in the game to strike out Chas McCormick and induce a Martín Maldonado line out. Morton even returned to the mound to start the bottom of the third, punching out José Altuve before swelling in the area made it impossible for him to continue.

The Braves will have to rely on their bullpen to finish off what they hope to be a series-opening victory. A.J. Minter has worked a couple innings in relief of Morton, with Atlanta holding onto a 5-1 lead midway through tonight’s game.

Atlanta will obviously have to navigate the rest of the series without their top starter. Max Fried is already lined up to start tomorrow’s Game 2, with Ian Anderson the most likely candidate to take the ball in Game 3. The Braves added Kyle Wright to their World Series roster, and he’s capable of working multiple innings after starting for the entire season. Wright has worked almost exclusively in Triple-A this year, though, so he’s not an ideal option to start a World Series game. The Braves will also be able to add another arm to the roster as an injury replacement, but they were already reaching into their depth after fourth starter Huascar Ynoa suffered a season-ending shoulder injury last week.

It’s a relief that the Braves’ immediate announcement noted that Morton is expected to ready for the start of next season. Still, it’s a disappointing conclusion to another strong campaign for the well-respected hurler. Morton will be back in Atlanta in 2022, having signed a $20MM extension last month.

Tucker Davidson Replaces Charlie Morton On Braves’ World Series Roster

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After ace Charlie Morton sustained a fractured fibula during Game 1 of the World Series last night, the Braves have replaced him on their World Series roster with left-hander Tucker Davidson, per a league announcement.

Morton, 37, took a 102 mph Yuli Gurriel comebacker off the leg in last night’s game. The ball caromed over to first baseman Freddie Freeman, and Morton retired the next two hitters without issue. As Jeff Schultz of The Athletic writes, the Braves conducted X-rays between innings, which did not reveal a fracture, so Morton returned for the third inning. While the right-hander managed to strike out Jose Altuve, he was immediately visited by trainers after the following pitch and soon departed. A second set of X-rays then revealed a fracture.

Whether Morton had a fracture that was initially concealed by swelling or sustained the fracture during the Altuve at-bat, the end result is the same. Atlanta will be without its top starter and one of the best performers in recent postseason memory. It’s a tough loss to take, but the Braves hung on for a 6-2 victory in Game 1 and now find themselves just three wins from their first World Series title since 1995. The 25-year-old Davidson, who has just 21 2/3 innings of MLB experience, will be tasked with helping to realize that ultimate goal.

A 19th-round pick by Atlanta in 2016, Davidson has steadily improved his stock throughout his career and now ranks as one of the club’s more promising young arms. He tossed 20 innings over the life of four regular-season starts in 2021, notching a 4.15 ERA while striking out 18 of his 83 opponents (21.7%) against eight walks (9.6%). He was terrific in limited Triple-A action as well, logging a 1.17 ERA and a 28-to-5 K/BB ratio in 23 innings out of the Gwinnett rotation.

A forearm injury interrupted Davidson’s season and limited him to just those eight starts during the regular season. He’s pitched in just one game since mid-June, a three-inning effort with Gwinnett back on Oct. 3. It’s unlikely he’ll be counted upon for lengthy relief stints, then, but he’ll still give the Braves a fresh arm should the need arise. Of course, the Astros represent a tough task for any southpaw, as Houston batted .270/.339/.449 against lefties as a team this season — good for an MLB-best 117 wRC+.

With Morton now finished for the season, it remains to be seen how the Braves will shape their rotation moving forward. Max Fried was announced as the Game 2 starter yesterday, but Atlanta has yet to announce starters for Game 3 or Game 4. Ian Anderson will likely draw the ball in Game 3.

Huascar Ynoa might’ve been an option but was removed from their NLCS roster due to a shoulder injury. As such, he’s ruled out for World Series work. Drew Smyly spent much of the season in Atlanta’s rotation but worked in a bullpen capacity down the stretch. He worked 3 1/3 innings in his lone postseason appearance to date (and, again, would have a tough draw against the ’Stros as a lefty). Kyle Wright is on the postseason roster and threw seven innings in his final Triple-A start — but that was back on Oct. 2. He hasn’t pitched since. With only two clear rotation options remaining, it’s possible the Braves will simply turn to a series of all-hands-on-deck bullpen games when Fried and Anderson don’t draw the start.

Braves Extend Charlie Morton

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The Braves announced Monday that they’ve signed right-hander Charlie Morton to a one-year contract worth $20MM. (The Braves are one of the few teams who formally disclose the terms of their player contracts themselves.) The Jet Sports client also has a $20MM club option for the 2023 season that does not have a buyout.

Charlie Morton | Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Morton had somewhat of a slow start in his return to the Braves organization, pitching to a 5.08 ERA through his first eight starts of the season. He’s been lights-out ever since, however, working to a combined 2.95 ERA with a terrific 29.9 percent strikeout rate and a strong 7.4 percent walk rate over his past 20 starts — a total of 119 innings pitched. Overall, Morton has a 3.47 ERA in 158 frames with the Braves thus far in 2021.

This is the second go-around in Atlanta for Morton, whom the Braves selected with their third-round pick nearly two decades ago in 2002. He made his big league debut as a Brave in 2008 but was traded to the Pirates in the June 2009 swap that brought outfielder Nate McLouth to Atlanta. Morton would settle in as a mid-rotation starter in Pittsburgh, but a velocity spike in a very brief four-game stint with the Phillies — he missed the rest of the year with a torn hamstring — set the stage for him to land in Houston. With the Astros, Morton maintained that velocity bump and leaned more heavily into his four-seamer and curveball, at the expense of his sinker.

Morton broke out as one of the game’s best starters with the Astros, parlaying a brilliant two-year stint there into a two-year, $30MM contract with the Rays. He’d finish third in American League Cy Young voting and play a major role in the Rays’ postseason bid that year before some arm trouble brought about a slow start in 2020. Morton righted the ship in the season’s final couple weeks, however, and looked to be back to his dominant ways for much of the Rays’ 2020 run to the World Series.

Morton was a coveted free agent this offseason but had a small selection of teams he was willing to consider. Playing with the Rays afforded him the opportunity to live in his Bradenton, Fla. home, and Morton was reportedly very intent on remaining in the southeast to be near his family. His one-year deal with the Braves underscored that preference, as does today’s decision to forgo the open market entirely in favor of another one-year pact in a setting where he’s obviously quite comfortable.

With this deal in place, the Braves have now extended a pair of veterans in advance of free agency. Catcher Travis d’Arnaud inked a two-year, $16MM contract a couple weeks back, giving the club some stability behind the dish (as well as a potential bridge to William Contreras and/or Shea Langeliers).

Having Morton and d’Arnaud locked up for 2022 gives the Braves a total of $77MM committed to six players next season, although the status of Marcell Ozuna and his $16MM salary remain to be determined. The Braves also have option buyouts to pay to Joc Pederson, Adam Duvall, Josh Tomlin and the already-released Ender Inciarte.

The Braves opened the 2021 season with a payroll of $131MM, so there’s plenty of room for them to further add to that $77MM in guarantees this coming winter. Presumably, some of those funds are earmarked for what the team and its fanbase hope will be a long-term extension for franchise cornerstone Freddie Freeman. That they’ve been able to secure new deals with d’Arnaud and Morton shows the Braves are more than comfortable having these discussions not only in-season but in the midst of a playoff race, so perhaps they’ll yet aim to strike up a new deal with Freeman before he ever formally reaches the market.

For now, the certainty with Morton means they’ll be able to count on the return of a veteran who has blossomed into one of the game’s most steadily productive arms late in his career. Morton can be penciled into the 2022 rotation alongside lefty Max Fried, right-hander Ian Anderson and, hopefully, oft-injured righty Mike Soroka. Still just 24 years old, Soroka broke out as one of the game’s most talented young starters in 2019 but has only pitched 13 2/3 innings since that time after tearing his Achilles tendon on two occasions. Soroka isn’t expected to be ready for the beginning of the 2022 campaign, however, so it stands to reason that the Braves could look for some additional rotation help this winter even with Morton now locked into a return.

2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary  — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

Free Agent Notes: McCann, Angels, Yankees, Lester, Castro

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It appeared earlier Wednesday that catcher James McCann would join the Mets, though an agreement hasn’t materialized yet, and they’re not the only team chasing him at the moment. Robert Murray of FanSided tweets that the Angels are still in contention for McCann, a California native who would seemingly provide an upgrade over their current backstops, Max Stassi and Anthony Bemboom. McCann was just a backup with the White Sox last season, but he logged terrific offensive numbers then and was impressive as a starter in 2019. It could take a four-year deal to land him this winter.

Some more notes on the open market…

  • The Yankees haven’t shown interest in re-signing right-hander Masahiro Tanaka, Andy Martino of SNY says (video link). The team is more focused on re-signing second baseman DJ LeMahieu, but it doesn’t seem likely to dole out any other sizable contracts, according to Martino. Tanaka has been a dependable part of the Yankees’ rotation since he emigrated from Japan in 2014, but the club may pass on bringing him back and instead decide to ride with its in-house options to begin 2021. The YES Network’s Michael Kay painted a similar picture recently on his ESPN Radio show (link via NJ.com’s Randy Miller). Kay noted that LeMahieu is the team’s top priority, adding that if a deal comes together, he “might be the last big guy they get.” Reports over the past several months have indicated that the Yankees are unlikely to be aggressive spenders this winter, with LeMahieu serving as a possible exception after two brilliant years in the Bronx.
  • Red Sox fans hoping to see a reunion with lefty Jon Lester don’t seem likely to get their wish, as WEEI’s Rob Bradford reports that Boston hasn’t reached out to its former ace this offseason. Right-handers Corey Kluber and Matt Shoemaker are among the names the Red Sox have contacted as they look to stabilize the back of their rotation, per Bradford. Boston also had interest in Charlie Morton before he signed with the Braves, although remaining close to his family’s Florida home was a priority for Morton.
  • The Astros and Rangers are among the teams with interest in catcher Jason Castro, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. Castro began his career as a member of the Astros, with whom he played from 2010-16, before joining the Twins in free agency. The 33-year-old has regularly combined passable offense with well-regarded defense (particularly as a pitch framer), though he is coming off a somewhat disappointing campaign at the plate between the Angels and Padres. If he goes back to Houston, the left-handed-hitting Castro could platoon with righty Martin Maldonado. In Texas, he would presumably team with Jose Trevino to comprise the Rangers’ top two backstops.

Braves Notes: Melancon, Morton, Leaks, Chemistry, And Culture

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The Braves pulled off a somewhat surprising pair of moves early this postseason by nabbing starters Drew Smyly and Charlie Morton on one-year deals. That the deals were surprising, however, was not surprising. The Braves keep their internal conversations about players internal, according to the Athletic’s David O’Brien, who writes, “Atlanta is as leak-free as any organization in sports regarding rumors of potential trades and free-agent signings, and if the player and his agent are equally private, which is how the Braves like it and something that agents are aware of, there could and often are discussions and deals completed before anything is leaked.”

Hence, the dearth of news about re-signing, say, Mark Melancon, O’Brien notes, doesn’t equate to a lack of movement or interest. Simply, if the Braves do bring Melancon back, the public isn’t likely to hear about it until the deal is done.

In the meantime, Braves’ fans can content themselves with the additions they’ve already made this winter. After all, while neither the Smyly nor Morton contracts were big deals financially, they are big deals in terms of potential impact. The Morton acquisition bumped Fangraphs’ valuation of Atlanta’s rotation from the 16th-ranked rotation in the game to 11th, writes Jay Jaffe. Morton brings 1.5 more projected WAR than the Braves’ in-house alternative, per Steamer.

But for Morton, the decision to sign on the dotted line had as much to do with the personalities involved as it did the strength of the rotation. Familiarity with catching coach Sal Fasano, pitching coach Rick Kranitz, and catcher Travis d’Arnaud helped Morton commit to the switch from Tampa to Atlanta, according to a piece by O’Brien from just before Thanksgiving.

The already-established clubhouse culture in Atlanta also made the Braves an intriguing destination. Chemistry may not be the metric du jour for statisticians, but it was a consideration for Morton. Per O’Brien, Morton said, “Most good teams, they can outplay their talent level just by being close and having good attitudes and having fun. From everything that I know and what I’ve seen, the Braves have both. It looks like they’re really loose, fun-loving, but they’re also really talented. So I’m looking forward to being part of a group where you’re looking forward to getting to the park every day and you just want to hang out, being excited to play together.”

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