Charlie Blackmon

Rockies Plan To Move Ian Desmond To Center Field

By Steve Adams | February 18, 2019 at 12:02pm CDT

The Rockies are shuffling their outfield alignment for the upcoming season, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. They’ll utilize Ian Desmond as their primary center fielder, with Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl lining up in corners. (Saunders further tweets that Blackmon will play right field, with Dahl playing left.) It’ll be the third position for Desmond with the Rockies in the third season of his five-year, $70MM contract. Desmond was primarily a left fielder with the Rox in 2017 and was the team’s regular first baseman last year, though offseason signee Daniel Murphy will handle first base moving forward.

Desmond, 33, does have some experience in center field, which was his primary position with the Rangers back in 2016. However, he drew mixed reviews there at the time (-6 Defensive Runs Saved, -0.5 Ultimate Zone Rating and +3 Outs Above Average) and will be tasked with a challenging draw in covering Coors Field’s spacious center field.

The shift will move Blackmon, who hasn’t played any corner outfield since 2015 (when he played fewer than 100 innings, combined, in right and left field), in an effort to gain more favorable results. Blackmon’s defensive ratings plummeted in 2018, and his bat, while still well above average, took a step back as well. That, and perhaps a desire to keep Blackmon’s legs a bit fresher, quite likely played a role in the new alignment, though manager Bud Black also called center field Desmond’s “best position” at this point. For a 33-year-old that has logged just 27 innings at the position over the past two seasons, that seems like a stretch, but Desmond will once again be tasked with tackling an unfamiliar position as the Rox look to extract some value from a signing that has yet to pay dividends.

The first two seasons of Desmond’s five-year contract have gone about as poorly as the Rockies could have plausibly envisioned at the time they signed him. The two-time All-Star (2012 with the Nats and 2016 with the Rangers) has managed just a .251/.314/.404 batting line (78 OPS+) while struggling through a broken hand and a calf strain in an injury-shortened 2017 season. While his bat trended up a bit this past season, he was still a far cry from his offensive peak. Paired with some rough glovework at first base, those struggles prompted both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference to tab Desmond’s value south of replacement level. Desmond is slated to earn $15MM in each of the next two seasons and will be paid $8MM in 2021 (plus a $2MM buyout on a $10MM option for the 2022 season).

Rockies Notes: Chemistry, Leadoff, Bullpen Roles

By TC Zencka | February 16, 2019 at 11:26am CDT

Although team chemistry is difficult to gauge and impossible to measure, there’s little doubt to the positive impact made by lead-by-example types Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. While Arenado and Blackmon make the culture what it is with their intensity and work ethic – as they should since they’re the two highest paid players on the team – they’re not necessarily vocal leaders. Someone will have to step into the void left by the departures of Carlos Gonzalez, Gerardo Parra and DJ LeMahieu, three players who handled a brunt of the interpersonal clubhouse responsibilities last season. Parra kept the mood light, LeMahieu fueled the competitive spirit, and CarGo took on the responsibility of access, making himself available to the press more often than not. The latter is an interesting and important responsibility, as some guys are better than others at shutting out the noise that comes with playing professionally. Mark Reynolds figures to be a top candidate to take on some of the emotional management of the Rockies’ clubhouse, but other veterans like Ian Desmond and Chris Iannetta will have the opportunity to play more of a leadership role as well. More from Saunders on the Rockies 2019 season…

In a separate piece for the Denver Post, Saunders notes that manager Bud Black likes the potency of Blackmon’s bat at the top of the lineup, and he plans to keep him there for 2019. With slugging percentages of .552, .601, and .502 the last three seasons, Blackmon fits the mold of a more traditional middle of the order bat, but Black likes the threat of the home run ball from the jump. LeMahieu handles roughly half of last season’s leadoff responsibilities (with Blackmon bumped to second), but with him in New York there will be a new face at the top of the Rockies lineup. Daniel Murphy figures to fit somewhere in the top of the order mix, but youngster Garrett Hampson is another natural choice to play himself into the conversation. With walk rates between 9.0% and 15.4% in his three minor league seasons, along with solid contact rates, Hampson has the potential to match LeMahieu’s contact ability while adding to it a more disciplined approach.
Whereas most of the league is turning to fluid bullpen roles and innovations like the Opener and the multi-inning stopper, Black and the Rockies maintain a more traditional bullpen philosophy, writes Saunders. Black prefers not only to have a standard closer, but also a regular eighth inning arm. Wade Davis figures to return to the closer role, but with Adam Ottavino gone, the eighth inning is up for grabs. A spring competition ought to iron out the exact bullpen roles, with Seunghwan Oh and Scott Oberg the odds-on favorites to land the setup gig, with veterans Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee peripheral contenders. Oberg made major strides last seasons, earning Black’s trust down the stretch last season as he cut his walk rate from a career 4.2 BB/9 to 1.8 BB/9 in 2018.

NL West Notes: Rockies, Myers, Hundley

By Steve Adams | October 18, 2018 at 11:01pm CDT

In looking ahead to the future of the Rockies’ outfield, Kyle Newman of the Denver Post suggests that the Rockies are likely to move Charlie Blackmon, whose defensive ratings in center field plummeted in 2018, to left field in favor of David Dahl next season. The two appear to be locks to be in the Colorado outfield next season regardless of alignment, given Dahl’s outstanding finish to the season. The 24-year-old former top prospect hit .273/.325/.534 with 16 homers in 271 plate appearances in the Majors last year, including a ridiculous .287/.330/.655 slash with nine homers in the season’s final month. In a second column looking at the rotation, Newman’s colleague, Patrick Saunders, notes that right-hander Jon Gray drew trade inquiries at the deadline, but the Rockies opted not to sell low on their Opening Day starter. Gray, the No. 3 pick in the 2013 draft, undeniably has electric raw stuff, but he’s yet to consistently tap into his front-of-the-rotation upside in parts of four big league seasons. He’s controlled through 2021, though, so he’d be an incredibly in-demand commodity in the event that the Rox do at least listen to offers this winter.

Here’s more from the division…

MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell looks at four options the Padres have in their Wil Myers dilemma this offseason: play Myers regularly at third base, move him back to the outfield, bounce him between multiple positions or trade him (and likely eat some of the remaining $74MM on his contract in the process). Myers didn’t rate well at third base in his limited time there this past season, though the slugger expressed confidence that he’d be able to improve dramatically with more reps. A move back to the outfield is difficult with Hunter Renfroe, Franmil Reyes and Franchy Cordero each already representing corner-only options, though Cassavell notes that it’s possible the Friars shop one of Renfroe or Reyes. The team’s initial hope in moving Myers to the hot corner was that he could rotate between multiple positions, but he’s unlikely to improve to the point where he’s not a liability if he doesn’t get fairly regular work there. It’s a tough spot for the Padres, who figure to have some outfielders for sale this offseason regardless of the direction they take.
Buster Posey’s hip surgery makes it a “pretty good bet” that Nick Hundley will return to the Giants for a third season in 2019, writes Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. While Aramis Garcia’s September play encouraged many in the organization, bringing Hundley back into the fold would allow the Giants to either get Garcia everyday at-bats in Triple-A early in the season or to serve as Hundley’s backup if Posey isn’t ready to begin the season. Interestingly, Pavlovic adds that some members of the organization can even envision Hundley, who has become one of the more popular figures in the clubhouse, managing the Giants in the future. The 35-year-old Hundley hit .241/.298/.408 with 10 home runs in 305 plate appearances with San Francisco in 2018.

NL Notes: Blackmon, Gyorko, Gregerson, Glasnow, Hellickson

By Kyle Downing | April 15, 2018 at 7:28pm CDT

Though recently-extended Rockies slugger Charlie Blackmon is a star outfielder, he spent his early career trying to make it as a pitcher. Kyle Newman of the Denver Post details Blackmon’s story, beginning with his high school tenure in Atlanta. After struggling to gain any significant attention early on, Blackmon began experiencing arm troubles in his junior year at Georgia Tech. The following season, however, saw him excel as a hitter en route to being drafted by the Rockies. He’s now set to earn nine figures throughout the course of his MLB career. There are some insightful quotes and tidbits in Newman’s article, including this quote from manager Walt Weiss: “I didn’t foresee the power — he’s made some adjustments, and there’s lightning in the bat now because his power numbers are pretty amazing considering the type of player he was when he broke in.”

Reactions To The Charlie Blackmon Extension

By Kyle Downing | April 8, 2018 at 12:24pm CDT

Is the Charlie Blackmon deal the beginning of a new trend that other free agents could follow in the coming seasons? Mark Feinsand of MLB.com asks this question and examines the subject in depth. The extension takes Blackmon out of a very crowded free agent pool next offseason that’s set to feature Bryce Harper, Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado and Dallas Keuchel, all of whom are widely expected to be the subjects of massive bidding wars. “After the past few markets, there’s no question this is going to become a trend,” one agent said of the pact. “You will see clubs look to sign players very young.” However, another agent believes that Blackmon made a mistake by signing the extension so early, as he’d have been the second-most coveted outfielder beyond Bryce Harper. The trade-off in this case is simple… a soon-to-be free agent in his 30s perhaps gave up some earnings upside, and in exchange doesn’t have to worry about what might or might not happen in a volatile free agent market next season.

A pair of other reactions to the Blackmon-Rockies accord…

Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post views the extension through a different lens; he wonders how this pact will directly affect fellow Rockies star Nolan Arenado. Saunders believes that the Blackmon deal makes it significantly less likely that the Rockies can afford to keep Arenado in the fold for the long term. After all, the All-Star third baseman could command a deal in the $300MM range, which will certainly be difficult for the Rockies to manage in combination with the $94MM in new money they just guaranteed to Blackmon.
Blackmon is just the latest in a line of players to take themselves out of the 2018-2019 free agent class, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The baseball world has been talking about the impending class for years, but Matt Harvey’s poor performance the past few seasons has largely taken the possibility of a nine-figure deal off the table, Jose Fernandez tragically passed away, and now Blackmon has extended his tenure with the Rockies. Others such as Anthony Rizzo, Corey Kluber and Anthony Rizzo could have been free agents this winter as well had they not signed long-term deals earlier in their careers. Though Greg Holland, Mike Moustakas and Jonathan Lucroy are among the unexpected additions to this class, it seems as though a class that once looked like an unprecedented convergence of free agent juggernauts has been watered down a bit.

Injury Notes: Powell, Ramirez, Blackmon, Rodriguez, Indians

By Kyle Downing | April 8, 2018 at 8:58am CDT

Athletics outfielder Boog Powell is headed to the DL after suffering a knee sprain, tweets Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. The left-handed-hitting Powell has hit just .167/.200/.292 in the first week of the season, though he did impress with a 135 wRC+ in limited action with the A’s last season. Powell beat out top prospect Dustin Fowler for the starting center field job during spring training, but he’ll now be absent for at least ten days while rehabbing.

Other injury notes from around baseball…

Maria Guardado of MLB.com tweets that Angels righty J.C. Ramirez exited his most recent start with “forearm tightness”. It’s highly disturbing news for the Halos; Ramirez was diagnosed with a partially-torn UCL in his throwing elbow last season, but elected to go with stem cell surgery rather than opt for a Tommy John procedure. Ramirez has thrown 6 2/3 innings this season; he’s struck out four opposing hitters while allowing seven earned runs on seven hits and seven walks.
Rockies star Charlie Blackmon is dealing with some back spasms, but told reporters he is not injured (h/t Nick Groke of the Denver Post). “It was a little bit tight for most of the game and kept getting tighter. I’ve dealt with it before and been all right.” Blackmon, of course, just signed an extension with Colorado and is a key component to their contention plans this season.
The Red Sox have officially activated left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez from the 10-day disabled list. Right-hander Marcus Walden has been optioned to Triple-A Pawtucket in a related move. Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes that Hector Velazquez and Brian Johnson are expected to pitch out of the bullpen for the time being, as the Sox have a number of off days coming up; those days will eliminate the need for a fifth starter for the time being. The 25-year-old pitched to a 4.19 ERA last season in 137 1/3 innings last season, and is coming off a winter knee surgery.
Jordan Bastian of MLB.com has the latest updates on a number of Indians injuries. Right-hander Danny Salazar (shoulder) is still unable to throw off a mound with “full intensity”, so he’s still a few weeks away from game activity. Third baseman Giovanny Urshela (hamstring), on the other hand, is just a week away from possibly starting a minor-league rehab assignment. Left-hander Ryan Merritt (knee) has resumed throwing and is scheduled to pitch an extended spring game on Wednesday, while righty Cody Anderson (elbow) is finally back to throwing off a mound following Tommy John surgery in March of 2017; he’s “several week away” from potential game activity. Of these four players, only Anderson has a minor-league option remaining, meaning the Tribe will be facing a significant roster crunch in the near future. In other Tribe injury news, Lonnie Chisenhall has officially been placed on the 10-day DL. Tyler Naquin has been recalled from Triple-A Columbus to take his place (h/t Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal.

Rockies Extend Charlie Blackmon

By Jeff Todd | April 4, 2018 at 2:02pm CDT

The Rockies have announced an extension with outfielder Charlie Blackmon. In addition to re-working his already agreed-upon 2018 salary, the new deal covers five additional seasons, giving the Rockies control over three would-be free agent campaigns and providing the ACES client with a pair of player options for two further years.

Blackmon will be guaranteed $94MM in new money, $63MM of which comes over the three seasons that are locked in before the player options, according to Craig Calcaterra of NBC Sports (Twitter link). He will also receive the same amount ($14MM) he was already promised for 2018, though $2MM of that figure will now come by way of signing bonus. He’ll then earn $21MM annually from 2019 through 2021.

In the final two potential seasons, Blackmon will consider a $21MM player option for 2022 and, if he’s still playing under the contract, a $10MM option for 2023. That final option number could escalate by up to $8MM. As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets, it will move north by $5MM so long as Blackmon takes 400 plate appearances. He can boost the figure by $2MM with a first, second, or third-place finish in the MVP voting or by $1MM if he lands fourth or fifth. The contract also includes limited no-trade protection.

Blackmon, who’ll turn 32 in July, has ramped up his productivity over the past two seasons to become one of the game’s best all-around outfielders. He has won consecutive Silver Sluggers and placed fifth in the National League MVP voting in 2017.

More importantly, the numbers suggest that Blackmon is primed to continue his success. Blackmon has racked up 400 hits over the past two seasons, carrying an eye-popping .327/.390/.578 cumulative slash line that impresses even after accounting for the fact that he plays half of his games at Coors Field. He no longer swipes many bags, but made up for that lag in the counting-stat department by hitting a career-high 37 long balls last season. Notably, he also boosted his walk rate to a career-high 9.0% in 2017. While that’s hardly a premium figure, it’s promising that it is moving northward at this stage. And Blackmon has also fared rather well historically against left-handed pitching.

Though he grades mostly as an average performer in center, and may ultimately move out to a corner spot before this deal is up, Blackmon is a solid defender and good baserunner as well. He has also stayed on the field consistently since emerging as a full-time player in 2014.

The move will keep one of the Rockies’ biggest stars on hand through at least his age-34 season while committing the team financially through his age-36 effort. Whether the Colorado organization can similarly lock up its other top player, third baseman Nolan Arenado (a free agent after 2019), remains to be seen.

This contract also removes a significant player from the much-anticipated 2018-19 free agent class. While Blackmon never was going to carry quite the earning power of some of the other intriguing names who’ll soon reach the open market, he had certainly profiled as one of several players that could have pushed for nine-figure contracts.

As it turns out, Blackmon’s new contract topped nine figures only nominally. Of course, he’s locking that figure in now rather than rolling the dice on how things turn out in the season to come — not to mention how the next free agent period will go after a long, strange 2017-18 offseason. And he’ll get to stay with the only organization he has played for. There’s also value in controlling the outcome of the final two seasons of the deal, though perhaps not all that much given how long in the tooth Blackmon will be when it comes time to make a call on those years.

Blackmon also had to contend with anticipated market unease over his age as well as the fact that he has rather significant home/road splits (131 wRC+ vs. 100 wRC+ for his career). It was fairly unlikely that he’d have received a much lengthier commitment upon entering the market at 32 years of age. The Coors factor is harder to gauge, but could certainly also have been a factor in limiting interest.

All told, there’s certainly a case to be made that Blackmon could have earned a fair bit more had he waited. Way back in the 2012-13 offseason, Josh Hamilton secured a five-year, $125MM pact entering his age-32 season. Then again, the amply accomplished Lorenzo Cain — nowhere near the hitter Blackmon is, but a better performer in other areas — is only months older than Blackmon and secured just $80MM for his own five-year term. Another monster season might, in the right market circumstances, have allowed Blackmon to drive up a bidding war and earned a decent bit more than he will. Odds are, though, that he will not have left an enormous pile of cash on the table when all is said and done.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Moustakas, Blackmon, Kipnis

By Connor Byrne | January 20, 2018 at 11:37pm CDT

A few notes from around MLB as we wrap up another day in this historically sluggish offseason…

While free agent third baseman Mike Moustakas hasn’t drawn much reported interest of late, that wasn’t the case early in the offseason, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes. However, teams that initially pursued Moustakas balked at his asking price, Feinsand adds. Now, at least one general manager expects Moustakas to land a far less valuable deal than some outlets – including MLBTR – projected entering the offseason. “When you see what (Jay) Bruce got from the Mets, it’s hard to see Moustakas getting more than that,” said the GM, referring to Bruce’s three-year, $39MM contract. While Bruce will play his age-31 season in 2018 and Moustakas won’t turn 30 until September, the former did not enter the winter with a qualifying offer attached. Moustakas did, which is among a few factors that have worked against him on the market, as Feinsand details in his piece.
Center fielder Charlie Blackmon could be part of one of the best free agent classes of all-time next year, but he’s open to signing an extension with the Rockies and forgoing a trip to the market. “It’s a two-way street,” the 31-year-old told Thomas Harding of MLB.com. “I really like playing here. It’s been a great place to be. I like the people. I like the teammates. And I’ve also been on a one-year situation for the past three to four years, so it doesn’t really change anything for me. I’m used to that go-out-and-produce mindset. Hopefully, something happens. That would be great.” If something doesn’t happen, the reigning NL batting champion (.331) will play 2018 for $14MM and vie for a third straight star-caliber season.
The Indians reportedly plan to play Jason Kipnis at second base in 2018, but they haven’t yet informed him of that, Jordan Bastian of MLB.com relays. It’s “more than likely” Kipnis will man the keystone, manager Terry Francona acknowledged, though Bastian notes that he may open the year in left field if Michael Brantley isn’t ready to return from the right ankle surgery he underwent in October. Kipnis, for his part, is “excited to play wherever they need me.” The career-long Indian, 30, also indicated he’s pleased to still be with Cleveland, despite offseason trade rumors.

Rockies, Charlie Blackmon Avoid Arbitration

By Steve Adams | January 12, 2018 at 8:55am CDT

The Rockies have avoided arbitration with outfielder Charlie Blackmon by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $14MM, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports (Twitter link). The ACES client had a projected arbitration salary of $13.4MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Matt also took a more in-depth look at Blackmon’s case and some of the intricacies surrounding his projection as part of his Arbitration Breakdown series.

Blackmon, 31, finished fifth in the NL MVP voting this past season on the heels of a brilliant campaign in Colorado. In a league-leading 725 plate appearances, Blackmon hit .331/.399/.601 with 37 homers, taking home the NL batting title. Blackmon also paced the National League in runs scored (137), hits (213), triples (14) and total bases (387). All of that combined to give Blackmon a massive raise of $6.7MM — a 91.7 percent increase over last year’s salary of $7.3MM.

This’ll be the final trip through the arbitration process for Blackmon, who will be a part of one of the best free-agent classes in recent memory next offseason. He’ll be joined by teammates DJ LeMahieu and Chad Bettis in that regard, both of whom are also eligible for arbitration this winter (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker). Lefty Zac Rosscup caps off the Rockies’ arbitration class.

Arbitration Breakdown: Charlie Blackmon

By Matt Swartz | January 10, 2018 at 10:36pm CDT

Recently, I have been discussing some of the higher-profile upcoming arbitration cases as part of MLBTR’s Arbitration Breakdown series. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. Full arbitration projections for 2018 are also available.

Charlie Blackmon put up some gaudy numbers in 2017, hitting .331 to go along with 37 home runs and 104 RBIs. As a result, my model projected him for a very high raise. However, the model also utilizes something called the Kimbrel Rule– which states that no player gets projected for an increase more than $1MM higher than the record raise for his service class. This limits Blackmon to a $6.1MM raise, which lands him at a $13.4MM projection for the 2018 season. Truth be told, though, the model actually spit out a $16.8MM salary estimate!

There are two different run environment factors to consider for Blackmon that could be inflating the way his number would be viewed by an arbitration panel. Blackmon plays his home games at Coors Field, a notorious home run park. FanGraphs gives Rockies’ players a 116 park factor, suggesting Blackmon’s 37 home runs might be the equivalent of 32 home runs in a more neutral setting.

Further inflating Blackmon’s home run total is something that will affect a great number of cases this year—the dramatically increased level of home runs throughout the league. This past season set a league record with 6,105 total home runs—this was 26 percent higher than the average from the last five years. So when I look at players with similar totals over the last five years, it is unclear whether an arbitration panel (or teams and agents that are negotiating in the shadow of what an arbitration panel would say) would treat home runs from Blackmon as similar to other players with the same number of home runs, or as someone with maybe 26 percent fewer home runs.

My model does not adjust for league or park home run environment in this way; in general the data has shown that run environment is not a big consideration in arbitration. Hitters in high-scoring years benefit from being compared to hitters in lower-scoring years. Pitchers in low-scoring years benefit from being compared to pitchers in high-scoring years.

If you knock down Blackmon’s home run total by league and park effects, he lands somewhere around the equivalent of 25 home runs in a neutral park in a prior season. But of course, that may not be what the panel considers. Most likely, they will just compare him (favorably) to the current record-holder in this service class, which is Chase Headley from 2013. Headley hit .286 with 31 homers, 115 RBIs and 17 stolen bases in the platform season for his final trip through the arbitration process.

Blackmon outperformed Headley in both homers and average, and he also stole 14 bags, further helping his case. It seems likely to Blackmon will be seen as favorable to Headley — especially considering the fact that Headley’s case is already five years old — so I think earning a raise north of $6MM seems likely.

If we’re looking for other recent players with a lot of home runs who reached arbitration, Todd Frazier’s name emerges. He hit 40 home runs in his platform season, but at .225, his average was more than a hundred points below Blackmon’s. Frazier got a $3.75MM raise, which Blackmon should easily crush.

Eric Hosmer is another potential comparable, but he’s also clearly a player with an inferior case to that of Blackmon. In 2016, Hosmer’s platform before his final trip through arbitration, he hit .266 with 25 homers and 104 RBIs. Blackmon has him handled in every category, so Hosmer’s $4MM raise is another example of a potential floor for Blackmon’s raise.

I think it’s clear that Blackmon is going to set a new record. The “Kimbrel Rule” has worked very well since its inception, and I think it will apply well here. Look for Blackmon to land somewhere between $13-14MM, with some chance of going slightly above that if and when he settles on a one-year deal for the 2018 season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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