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Ceddanne Rafaela

Cora: Red Sox Will Continue To Use Ceddanne Rafaela As Primary Shortstop

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The Red Sox lost Trevor Story to season-ending shoulder surgery less than two weeks into the 2024 campaign, and they’ve cycled through several options there in the interim. However, infielder/outfielder Ceddanne Rafaela has started the past six games at the position, and manager Alex Cora said today that he’ll remain the everyday option at shortstop moving forward (X link via Ian Browne of MLB.com).

The 23-year-old Rafaela, who just signed an eight-year $50MM extension earlier this season, is regarded as one of the game’s top defensive outfielders but also has plenty of experience in the infield. He’s played all three positions left of first base, including 766 career frames at shortstop between the minors and the big leagues. Story, Vaughn Grissom and Romy Gonzalez are all on the injured list for the Sox, who’ve also tried David Hamilton and Pablo Reyes at shortstop. Rafaela will be the preferred choice moving forward.

It’s been a rough start to the season at the plate for Rafaela, a top-100 prospect who’s torn through upper-minors pitching but has yet to find much offensive success in the big leagues. The righty-swinging speedster hit .241/.286/.386 in 89 plate appearances during last year’s MLB debut effort and carries a dismal .171/.213/.293 slash through the exact same number of plate appearances thus far in 2024. Even with those struggles, Cora saw fit to give the touted young prospect a vote of confidence with today’s announcement.

The health of the rest of the roster could always chance the calculus, of course. The Sox currently figure to run with a primary outfield of Tyler O’Neill, Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu for the foreseeable future. An injury to any of that trio could push Rafaela back into the outfield, at least on occasion — particularly if and when Grissom and Gonzalez heal up to replenish some infield depth.

It’s perhaps not ideal to have an elite defensive outfielder operating as the everyday shortstop in the long run, but Rafaela is regarded as a plus defensive second baseman as well and has thus far handled shortstop plenty capably. That versatility is part of the reason the Sox valued him enough to put forth that extension offer in the first place. Even if his long-term home is likely in center field, he can help patch things over in the infield when injuries mount as they have thus far in 2024.

Red Sox Extend Ceddanne Rafaela

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April 10: The Red Sox have announced Rafaela’s extension. It’s an eight-year deal covering the 2024-31 seasons and also contains a previously unreported club option for a ninth season in 2032.

Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports the annual breakdown. Rafaela receives a $2MM signing bonus before earning salaries of $1MM in 2024, $1MM in 2025, $2MM in 2026, $3.5MM in 2027, $5.5MM in 2028, $7.5MM in 2029, $10.5MM in 2030 and $13MM in 2031. The club option is valued at $16MM and comes with a $4MM buyout.

April 8: The Red Sox have agreed to an extension with outfielder/second baseman Ceddanne Rafaela, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. It’s an eight-year, $50MM pact for the MVP Sports Group client, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (as relayed by Ian Browne of MLB.com). Rafaela is the second young, core player the team has locked up in the past few weeks; Boston also signed righty Brayan Bello to a six-year, $55MM deal in late March.

Rafaela, 23, has ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects entering each of the past two seasons. He made his big league debut in 2023 won the center field job in Boston with a strong spring showing in 2024. Through his first 124 big league plate appearances, Rafaela is a .239/.282/.389 hitter, though his minor league track record features far more promising numbers. Rafaela split the majority of the 2023 campaign between Double-A and Triple-A, where he logged a combined .302/.349/.520 slash with 20 homers, 31 doubles, three triples and 36 stolen bases (in 49 tries).

Listed at just 5’9″ and 152 pounds, Rafaela is small in stature but certainly not short on talent. Scouting reports laud him as a potential plus center fielder; Baseball America and MLB.com both call him a Gold Glove-caliber defender there, and The Athletic’s Keith Law wrote that Rafaela “has a chance to be the most valuable outfield defender in baseball” when ranking him 32nd among all MLB prospects this spring. Rafaela couples that defensive upside with plus speed and enough power to project for double-digit home runs in the big leagues, even if he’s more of a gap hitter than a true slugger.

While Rafaela struck out as a generally manageable 21% clip in the upper minors last season, he doesn’t have a particularly patient approach at the plate. He walked in just 5.4% of his plate appearances last season — his second straight minor league campaign with a walk rate around 5%. He’s drawn a free pass in just 4.8% of his big league plate appearances to date. Barring an evolution in his approach at the dish, Rafaela could post middling on-base percentages in the majors, but his defensive prowess, speed and power contributions should offset any potential OBP deficiency.

As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the pre-arbitration extensions for Rafalea and Bello mark a notable change in philosophy from a Red Sox club that has eschewed long-term deals for players who are relatively unproven in the big leagues. From 2012 through 2021, the Red Sox didn’t give out a single pre-arb extension. Their 2022 deal with righty Garrett Whitlock (four years, $18.75MM with two club options) was their first extension for a player prior to arbitration eligibility since Clay Buchholz way back in 2011.

The Sox haven’t shied away from extensions entirely, but long-term deals for Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, Chris Sale and Rick Porcello were far more expensive deals that came after those players had solidified themselves as big leaguers worth annual values of $20MM or more. Even the original Bogaerts deal, which was considered wildly club-friendly, was valued at six years and $120MM.

Perhaps the eventual loss of Bogaerts, coupled with high-profile departures of Mookie Betts, Jon Lester and others over the years, pushed Sox ownership to become more aggressive on early-career extensions. Maybe they’ve become increasingly dissatisfied with pricey free-agent deals that haven’t gone to plan (e.g. Trevor Story, David Price, Lucas Giolito). Or perhaps they simply looked at the rising price for young talent around the league and opted to become more proactive. Whatever the reason, they’re beginning to lock up some promising and affordable contributors to join Devers in comprising the long-term core.

Rafaela is just one of several extension candidates on the Red Sox, and with two deals now hammered out, it seems increasingly plausible others could yet follow. Most notably, first baseman Triston Casas and righty Tanner Houck have both spoken about their openness to extensions. Other pre-arb players who could feasibly be considered for long-term deals include left fielder Jarren Duran and righty Kutter Crawford.

AL East Notes: Holliday, Gil, Red Sox

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The Orioles shocked the baseball world yesterday by reassigning top prospect Jackson Holliday to minor league camp, effectively ending his bid to make the Opening Day roster. The consensus #1 prospect in the entire sport, Holliday has taken the minors by storm since being selected first overall in the 2022 draft. After hitting .297/.489/.422 in 20 games down the stretch the year he was drafted between rookie ball and Single-A, Holliday tore through the minors in 2023 to advance all the way to the Triple-A level before the end of his first full season as a pro. In 125 games last year, Holliday slashed .323/.442/.499, including a strong .338/.421/.507 showing in 36 games at the Double-A level. The youngster continued to tear the cover off the ball this spring as well, slashing .311/.354/.600 across 15 games during camp.

GM Mike Elias today explained the club’s decision to start Holliday in the minor leagues after that incredible performance to reporters, including MASN’s Roch Kubatko. Among the reasons Elias listed for Holliday not breaking camp with the Orioles was his lack of experience against left-handed pitching. Holliday’s numbers against southpaws last year, while decent, were not at the same caliber as those he posted against right-handed pitching. While he crushed righties to a .331/.437/.551 slash line, his 124 trips to the plate against lefties last year saw him hit just .296/.387/.389. Elias also suggested that Holliday’s minimal experience at second base- where the club plans to play him in the majors- was another motivating factor behind Holliday’s demotion. The youngster has started primarily at shortstop throughout his professional career and has only 25 appearances at the keystone in 145 career minor league games.

Of course, those reasons for sending Holliday to the minors to open the year, however valid they may be, won’t outweigh the impact the move could have on Holliday’s future team control in the eyes of many. A player must be on the major league roster or injured list for at least 172 days of the 187-day season to earn a full year of service time. In other words, if Holliday spends at least 16 days in the minors this year, the Orioles could gain an additional year of team control over the up-and-coming star. Of course, if Holliday were to finish in the top two of AL Rookie of the Year voting this year, he would still be granted a full year of service time even if he spends less than 172 days in the majors this year. It’s also possible the club could reverse course in the early days of the season and call Holliday up in time for him to receive a full service year, in which case the club would receive a draft pick in the event that Holliday wins Rookie of the Year this season or finishes in the top 3 of AL MVP voting during his pre-arbitration seasons.

More from the AL East…

  • The Yankees are “seriously considering” right-hander Luis Gil as their fifth starter to open the season, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman adds that Gil wouldn’t have any innings restrictions in such a scenario despite having 29 2/3 innings of work across the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery and the subsequent rehab. With ace Gerrit Cole set to miss the early months of the season due to nerve inflammation in his elbow, the Yankees will need an additional starter to pair with Carlos Rodon, Nestor Cortes, Marcus Stroman, and Clarke Schmidt in the rotation. Barring an external addition, Sherman indicates that the fifth spot in the rotation is likely to come down to either Gil or Will Warren, a 24-year-old righty who posted a 3.35 ERA in 129 innings between the Double- and Triple-A levels last year. Gil is the more experienced hurler of the two, with 33 1/3 innings in the majors under his belt. Those seven starts in the big leagues came during the 2021 and 2022 seasons and saw Gil pitch to a solid 3.78 ERA with a 4.12 FIP.  [UPDATE: Gil has indeed won the fifth starter’s job, Boone told the New York Post’s Greg Joyce and other reporters today.]
  • Center field prospect Ceddanne Rafaela will break camp with the Red Sox to open the season, Alex Cora told reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe) this afternoon. Rafaela has appeared likely to make the club in the aftermath of injuries suffered by both second baseman Vaughn Grissom and outfielder Rob Refsnyder this spring. The 23-year-old has experience both on the infield dirt and in the outfield, though he figures to see the bulk of his playing time in center field as part of an outfield mix that also contains Tyler O’Neill, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Masataka Yoshida. Rafaela made his big league debut last season with a 28-game cup of coffee that saw him hit just .241/.281/.386 in 89 plate appearances, though he slashed a far more impressive .312/.370/.618 in 60 games at the Triple-A level last year.
  • Sticking with the Red Sox, veteran catcher Roberto Perez won’t be opting out of his minor league deal with the club according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive. Perez, 35, has spent the majority of his career in Cleveland and is regarded as one of the finest defensive catchers in the game, though he’s slashed just .169/.268/.288 since the start of the 2020 season and was limited to just 5 games in the majors last year before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery. Should the club stick with its current catching tandem of Reese McGuire and Connor Wong, that would leave Perez likely ticketed for Triple-A to open the season, where he’d serve as an excellent non-roster depth option for the Red Sox in the early part of the season. As an Article XX(B) free agent, Perez will have additional opportunities to opt-out of his deal with the club on May 1 and June 1 should he decide to test the open market later this season.

Red Sox Pursuing Outfield Additions

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As players begin arriving to spring training, the Red Sox are still looking to add to their roster. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports that the Sox have been in active pursuit of outfield options recently, suggesting a right-handed bat is the preferable addition. (Notably, he adds that Boston was not “meaningfully” involved in Jorge Soler’s market in the late stages of his free agency before he agreed to a three-year deal with the Giants.)

A right-handed outfield bat is a generally sensible addition for the Sox, whose current outfield alignment features three lefty bats (Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida) and one right-handed bat (Tyler O’Neill). Manager Alex Cora said today that Yoshida will see the most time at designated hitter of any of his current outfielders, but he’ll still see some work in the field as well (X link via Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe).

Top prospect Ceddanne Rafaela will get a chance to make the Opening Day roster as well and would add a right-handed bat to the bunch, but it’s also possible he’s ticketed for Triple-A to begin the season. Rafaela made his MLB debut last year but posted a tepid .241/.281/.386 slash with a 31% strikeout rate in 89 plate appearances. He’s still only played 48 games at the Triple-A level, and good as they were (.312/.370/.618 in 219 plate appearances), that’s a relatively small sample. He’ll need to earn a spot with a strong showing in camp. If Rafaela does make the roster, Cora noted that he’ll be the primary center fielder (X link via the Globe’s Alex Speier). “The defensive game is elite,” Cora said of Rafaela. “It’s a game-changer.”

As things stand, the Red Sox have a pair of right-handed outfield options on the bench in Rob Refsnyder and Bobby Dalbec. Refsnyder is a 32-year-old journeyman but does have a solid track record against lefties, including a .308/.428/.400 slash in 145 plate appearances last season. Dalbec, 28, has a minor league option remaining but has long seemed like a change-of-scenery candidate as a former top infield prospect who doesn’t have a clear role with the club. Neither player came up as an outfielder, and neither is considered to be an especially strong defender on the grass.

If the Sox prefer to turn to the free agent market, there are plenty of righty bats still available. Randal Grichuk, Michael A. Taylor, Tommy Pham and Adam Duvall all remain unsigned. Pham (2022) and Duvall (2023) have both played with the Red Sox recently, though they were acquired under now-former chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom’s watch. All four members of that quartet have experience across the outfield, although at this point only Taylor is considered an above-average option in center field (where he rates as one of the game’s premium defenders at the position).

While none of the free agents remaining in this tier of players is a star by any stretch of the word, each is affordable and can fill a clear role on a number of teams. As such, the Sox have competition for signing any of the bunch. The D-backs, for instance, have been tied to Grichuk, Pham and Duvall as they seek a right-handed complement to Joc Pederson at designated hitter. The Twins have been on the lookout for a righty outfield bat for much of the offseason after seeing Taylor become a free agent. Minnesota has reportedly shown interest in Duvall, specifically, but has had interest in Taylor throughout free agency as well. The Phillies could conceivably be in the mix for an outfield bat after an injury to Brandon Marsh. The Padres have considered a reunion with Pham.

Speaking of the Padres, it’s at least worth pointing out that San Diego has reportedly expressed interest in a trade involving Duran, though there’s never been any indication the two parties are close to a deal. But as the Sox look for ways to add to their collection of outfielders, it bears mentioning that the addition of a free agent could at least make the idea of moving Duran a bit more palatable. Boston would presumably prefer MLB-ready pitching in such a swap, however, and that’s an area the Padres themselves are also a bit thin, which complicates the scenario.

The Red Sox currently project for a $177.5MM payroll with about $198MM worth of luxury tax considerations, per Roster Resource. That $177.5MM projection is more than $20MM away from last year’s year-end payroll of about $199MM and miles away from the franchise-record $236MM, set back in 2019. Over the past month, the Red Sox have been specifically connected to Duvall, Pham and first baseman/outfielder Garrett Cooper (who is reportedly nearing a decision in free agency).

Red Sox Exploring Trades Involving Outfielders

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The Red Sox are exploring trades involving their young outfielders, reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. While Speier doesn’t identify anyone who is specifically part of talks, the Sox have a few intriguing possibilities.

Of the six primary outfielders on the 40-man roster, three have yet to qualify for arbitration: Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran and Ceddanne Rafaela. Duran has a little under two years of MLB service, while Abreu and Rafaela made their MLB debuts late in the 2023 campaign.

Other clubs will likely value that trio in different orders. They’ve each shown promise, but none is a finished product. Duran, who turned 27 in September and has appeared in parts of three big league campaigns, might offer the most certainty. He’s nevertheless a potentially divisive evaluation, as he took a step forward in 2023 after significant struggles in his first two MLB looks.

The left-handed hitter is coming off an impressive .295/.346/.482 line with eight home runs over 362 plate appearances. That’s far better than the .219/.269/.354 career mark he brought into the year. Last season’s production was partially inflated by a .381 average on balls in play that he’s unlikely to maintain. If he’s going to hit near .300 again, he’ll likely need to trim a 24.9% strikeout rate that’s a few percentage points higher than the league average. Duran has cut his whiffs with each progressive season, so it’s certainly not out of the question he continues to develop offensively, but some clubs could have reservations about an aggressive approach.

It’s a similar story defensively. Duran is an elite athlete and runner. That has shown up on the bases, where he went 24-26 in stolen base attempts, but hasn’t translated into strong defensive reviews. Public metrics have graded him as a middling center fielder, albeit to varying degrees. Statcast has pegged Duran two runs below par in nearly 1200 career innings. Defensive Runs Saved has been harsher, estimating him 19 runs below average. A team that feels he is a capable or better defender in center would be much more bullish than one that projects him as a left fielder — where he doesn’t have prototypical corner outfield power.

Abreu faces similar questions about his ideal defensive spot. He has played all three positions in the minors. During his MLB debut, he started eight games in left and 12 in center. Baseball America, which recently slotted him as the #6 prospect in the Sox’s farm system, suggests he’s best in right. Abreu has elite arm strength but below-average speed, which makes him a tough fit in center.

The 24-year-old has posted excellent numbers throughout his minor league career. That includes a .274/.391/.539 showing through 363 plate appearances with Triple-A Worcester this year. Abreu started his big league career strong, hitting .316/.388/.474 over his first 28 contests. The Sox shielded the lefty hitter from same-handed pitchers in that look, but he flashed the strong strike zone awareness which he has shown in the minors.

Rafaela, 23, brings a polar opposite approach. He’s an extremely aggressive hitter, which MLB pitchers exploited during a 28-game debut. The Curacao native torched Triple-A pitching, running a .312/.370/.618 slash with 14 homers over 219 plate appearances.

That’s strong production for any player. It’s especially impressive for an outfielder whom most prospect evaluators forecast as a Gold Glove caliber center fielder. Rafaela can also play the middle infield, although he’s regarded as a superior defender on the grass. Baseball America recently named him the Sox’s #4 prospect.

Barring trade, Duran is a lock for an Opening Day roster spot. Abreu or Rafaela could start next season in Triple-A. It’s unlikely there’s room for all three players to open the year unless there’s an injury in Spring Training. The Sox sent a pair of minor league right-handers to St. Louis for Tyler O’Neill. He’s primarily a left fielder but capable of covering all three spots. Left fielder/designated hitter Masataka Yoshida is headed into the second season of a five-year deal. He’ll make $18MM annually for the next four seasons. Yoshida paired solid but unexceptional offensive production (.289/.338/.445) with subpar defense in his first MLB campaign.

Between the recent acquisition of O’Neill and Yoshida’s contract, it’s unlikely either player is traded. Rob Refsnyder rounds out the group as a righty platoon bat. He’s signed to a $1.85MM deal for next season and wouldn’t bring back a noteworthy trade return.

Speier suggests an outfielder trade could allow Boston to add pitching. Even after tonight’s agreement with Lucas Giolito, the Sox have a high-variance staff. There’s plenty of upside in a rotation that could include some combination of Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Giolito, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock, yet it’s a group that also has plenty of risk.

If Boston were to trade an outfielder for pitching, they could look to free agency to replace the lost offense. Multiple reports have tied the Sox to Teoscar Hernández in recent days. Speier confirms Boston remains interested in Hernández after adding Giolito, indicating they have the financial breathing room to go back to the open market.

Red Sox Interested In Whit Merrifield

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The Red Sox have needs at second base and in the outfield and could perhaps address both of those areas with one player. Per a report from Chad Jennings and Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic, the club has “considered” Whit Merrifield and contacted his representatives, though the report characterizes the talks as preliminary with nothing appearing to be imminent.

Merrifield, 35 in January, has spent the past three seasons with offense a bit below league average but providing speed and defensive versatility. Splitting that stretch between the Royals and Blue Jays, the right-handed hitter took 1,862 trips to the plate in 446 games. He hit just 32 home runs in that time and walked at a mere 6.1% clip but also limited his strikeouts to a 15.5% rate. His .268/.311/.385 batting line in that time translates to a wRC+ of 90, or 10% below league average.

But he also stole 82 bases and split his time between second base and the outfield. His work at the keystone was strongly reviewed, as he produced 5 Defensive Runs Saved, 13 Outs Above Average and a grade of 6.1 from Ultimate Zone Rating. His marks in the outfield were more mixed, but teams love versatility and the ability to passably move around the diamond will certainly be attractive.

The fit with the Red Sox is quite sensible. Earlier this week, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow spoke about the club’s needs, saying that the “ideal” second base acquisition for them would be a right-handed hitter who plays plus defense, though he suggested a trade would be more likely than a free agent signing.

Merrifield isn’t the only strong defender who hits from the right side that’s available. Amed Rosario has mostly played shortstop in his career but received decent grades at the keystone with the Dodgers in the second half of 2023. The trade market could perhaps have guys like Gleyber Torres and Ha-Seong Kim, though there hasn’t been much to suggest a trade of either is likely. Jonathan India makes some sense as a trade candidate but the Reds have downplayed his availability and he’s generally considered a poor defender. Jorge Polanco is a switch-hitter but his offense is better than his defense and his bat is better from the left side. Brandon Drury could be available if the Angels are stepping back in 2024 but it doesn’t appear as though they will. Christopher Morel could be a good fit but he still has five years of control remaining and the Cubs seem to be trying to use him to pull off a big trade for someone like Pete Alonso or Tyler Glasnow.

All that is to say that the Sox have plenty of options, but Merrifield is one that makes sense. In addition to his right-handed bat and strong second base defense, his ability to move to the outfield could be enticing to them. The Boston outfield mix, even after trading lefty Alex Verdugo, projects to have lefties Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran and Masataka Yoshida. The latter will possibly see significant time as designated hitter, but not everyday. Breslow also suggested this week that he would like a right-handed hitter who could play center field but also said that’s not a need. Ceddanne Rafaela hits from the right side and the report linked in the first paragraph suggests the team feels he could viably handle center field.

Merrifield isn’t really someone to be relied on for center. He has just 120 innings there over the past three years and none in 2023. But perhaps the Sox could feel comfortable with a Rafaela up the middle, with Duran playing both left field and some center, as Abreu, Yoshida and Rob Refsnyder chip in at the corners as well. That’s a group fairly light on experience, however, and could perhaps do with a veteran addition. If Merrifield were to take the second base job, it’s possible he’s eventually pushed off by middle infield prospects Nick Yorke and Marcelo Mayer, but his ability to play the outfield could still allow him to be useful to the club.

MLBTR predicted Merrifield for a two-year, $18MM deal this winter, which would easily fit onto Boston’s payroll at present. Roster Resource lists their 2024 outlay as $164MM with a competitive balance tax figure of $176MM. It’s possible the club doesn’t want to go over the $237MM base threshold for the CBT after a last place finish in the East and with a new decision maker just hired, but that could still leave something like $60MM of wiggle room if they are willing to get near the line.

The club’s priority is pitching, however, which could be why the talks with Merrifield have only been preliminary thus far. If they decide to make a splashy move or two in upgrading their staff, they might be left with little left for pursuing upgrades at second base and the outfield. But Merrifield likely won’t require a ridiculous contract so it’s possible they circle back to him later in the winter after they make their decisions on the pitching front. Merrifield was also connected to the White Sox back in October but that club has since acquire Paul DeJong, Nicky Lopez and Braden Shewmake for their middle infield.

Red Sox Notes: Imanaga, Breslow, Turner, Jansen, Rafaela

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NPB standout Shota Imanaga will be posted for Major League teams this offseason, and MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam reports that the Red Sox have “heavily scouted” the Japanese left-hander.  Imanaga has a 3.17 ERA over eight seasons and 990 2/3 innings with the Yokohama DeNa Baystars, though North American fans might know him best from his work with Japan’s national team in this year’s World Baseball Classic.  Imanaga had a 3.00 ERA over six innings and three appearances, and was the starting pitcher (earning the win) in Japan’s gold-medal game victory over the United States.

MLB Trade Rumors readers are also familiar with Imanaga from our NPB Players To Watch series, as Dai Takegami Podziewski has regularly written about the southpaw as Imanaga looks to be on the verge of heading to the majors.  Imanaga will draw plenty of attention from pitching-needy teams, and the Sox certainly figure to make rotation upgrades a major part of their offseason plan under their next head of baseball operations.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the top name available among NPB pitchers this winter, but with at least ten MLB clubs (including the Red Sox) interested in Yamamoto’s services, it is possible Imanaga might be something of a solid backup plan for teams that either can’t land Yamamoto or can’t afford his big price tag.

More from Fenway Park…

  • Cubs assistant general manager Craig Breslow might be joining the Red Sox front office as the head of pitching development, as per Peter Gammons (on X).  The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma (also via X) has a contradictory report, saying there has been “zero contact” between the Cubs and Red Sox involving Breslow.  A veteran of 12 MLB seasons, Breslow has been working in Chicago’s front office for the better part of five years, becoming the team’s director of pitching in October 2019 and then receiving the AGM title in 2020.  Breslow spent parts of five seasons pitching for the Red Sox and he hails from Connecticut, plus Gammons notes that Breslow and his family live in nearby Newton, Massachusetts.
  • Justin Turner told MassLive’s Chris Cotillo that he hasn’t yet decided about whether or not to exercise his $13.4MM player option for the 2024 season, as his focus is still on finishing the rest of the schedule.  As to the possibility of staying with the Sox in general, “I love playing in Boston and I’ve had a great experience here so obviously, it would be fantastic if I was still here,” Turner said.  Even at age 38, Turner is still a very solid bat, hitting .278/.348/.463 with 23 homers over 600 plate appearances in his first season with the Red Sox.  It figures that the Sox would love to bring Turner back, though they might have to sign him to a new contract altogether — as Cotillo notes, the odds are high that Turner will take the $6.7MM buyout of his option and test free agency again in search of a bigger deal.
  • Kenley Jansen is back on the active roster, as the Red Sox activated the closer from the seven-day COVID-related injured list today.  (Righty Zack Weiss was optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move.)  Like Turner, Jansen was also a productive signing from the 2022-23 offseason, joining the Sox on a two-year/$32MM deal and delivering 29 saves and a 3.63 ERA over 44 2/3 innings in his first season in Beantown.
  • The Red Sox rank 27th of 30 teams in second base bWAR this season, as Boston’s second basemen have combined for a sub-replacement level -0.1 bWAR.  The Athletic’s Chad Jennings looks at how the Sox might address the position next year, and how perhaps the easiest solution would be to give Ceddanne Rafaela some regular time at the keystone.  The top prospect has played a few games at second base already, and while the Sox prefer to see what Rafaela’s glove can do in center field, using Rafaela at second base in at least a part-time capacity would open up center field to see if Jarren Duran can build on his promising 2023 campaign.  As for Boston’s other in-house second base options, Jennings writes that the club hasn’t yet decided on whether or not to tender Luis Urias a contract this winter, as Urias is set for at least a minimal arbitration raise on his current $4.7MM salary.  As Jennings notes, the next front office boss will probably be the one making the call on Urias, and it is possible the Sox might non-tender the infielder and then look to re-sign him at a lower price.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Paredes, Swanson

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Top prospect Ceddanne Rafaela has found limited playing time with the Red Sox since being called up at the end of August despite an overall strong performance at the plate in the majors so far, going 7-for-16 with two doubles. When asked about Rafaela’s playing time, manager Alex Cora told reporters (including MassLive’s Chris Cotillo) that Rafaela will continue to play in a reserve role as long as the club remains in the playoff race.

While the playoff odds at Fangraphs give the Red Sox just a 1.3% chance to make the postseason after tonight’s loss to Baltimore, Boston still has three games to go against each of the two clubs directly ahead of them in the standings, Texas and Toronto. That gives them a slim opening for a miracle run despite being a whopping seven games back of the final AL Wild Card spot with just three weeks to go in the regular season. With Rafaela’s first taste of everyday action in the big leagues on hold for the time being, the versatile youngster figures to share time at second base with Enmanuel Valdez while also offering backup options to Trevor Story at shortstop and Adam Duvall in center field.

More from the AL East…

  • Rays infielder Isaac Paredes exited today’s game after being hit in the hand by a pitch from right-hander Luke Weaver during the fifth inning of today’s game against the Mariners. Fortunately for Tampa, x-rays on Paredes’s hand came back negative and the 24-year-old third baseman was diagnosed with a hand contusion. Manager Kevin Cash indicated to reporters (including those at MLB.com) that Paredes won’t be in tomorrow’s starting lineup and is day-to-day, but could be available off the bench if necessary. It’s been a breakout campaign for Paredes in 2023, as the youngster has slashed a fantastic .253/.352/.502 in 497 trips to the plate this season. 22-year-old rookie Osleivis Basabe figures to take over at the hot corner while Parades is out of action.
  • The Blue Jays could welcome back right-hander Erik Swanson in the near future. The righty has been out due to thoracic spine inflammation since late August, and he’ll reach the minimum 15 days spent on the IL tomorrow. Swanson made a rehab appearance with Triple-A Buffalo this evening, and notched one strikeout without allowing a baserunner during his inning of work. Assuming he bounces back from tonight’s outing well, MLB.com notes that Swanson could return to the big league club without requiring another rehab appearance. That’s great news for the Blue Jays, as Swanson was perhaps their most reliable set-up man for closer Jordan Romano before he went on the shelf. In 58 innings of work this season, Swanson sports a 3.10 ERA, 3.28 FIP, and a 29.4% strikeout rate. He figures to form a lethal three-headed-monster at the back of the Toronto bullpen alongside Romano and deadline addition Jordan Hicks should the Blue Jays make it to the postseason.

Big Hype Prospects: Rafaela, Amador, Langford, Madden, Caissie

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Well, what are you waiting for? Let’s get to it.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Ceddanne Rafaela, 22, OF, BOS (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 485 PA, 20 HR, 36 SB, .302/.349/.520

Rafaela is the latest top prospect to earn a promotion. The defensive wunderkind has posted impressive hitting stats, albeit without much support under the surface. For instance, Rafaela has 14 home runs in 219 Triple-A plate appearances, an impressive power display by any measure. However, he’s done this with a 25.9 percent HR/FB ratio and below-average exit velocities. The guys who maintain high HR/FB ratios do it by crushing baseballs on the regular. Rafaela also has both poor discipline and serious swing-and-miss issues. That he succeeds despite these flaws indicates a path forward in the coming years. For now, consider him a glove-first option with an explosive but exploitable bat.

Adael Amador, 20, SS, COL AA)
(A+) 259 PA, 9 HR, 12 SB, .302/.391/.514

Though he’s no Ethan Salas, Amador is still one of the youngest players in Double-A. As yet, he only has two games at the level. He’s gone 2-for-8 with a walk and two steals. Amador is a switch-hitting middle infielder with a Kwan-like feel for the strike zone and contact. He still sells out for contact a little too much, and too many of his balls in play are on the ground. Even so, he’s trending toward a 2024 debut for a Rockies club in desperate need of a viable leadoff hitter. And that’s exactly what he looks like – a long-term up-the-middle leadoff guy.

Wyatt Langford, 21, OF, TEX (A+)
(A+) 88 PA, 3 HR, 6 SB, .314/.455/.586

A candidate to go first overall in the 2023 draft, Langford “fell” to the Rangers at fourth overall. He tore through the complex in 14 plate appearances before landing in High-A. The right-handed outfielder has more walks than strikeouts and as many extra-base hits as singles – indicating High-A isn’t much of a challenge. The main knock against him is defense. He’s fast enough to be a plus fielder, but he reportedly gets poor reads off the bat. His speed helps him to make up ground. I like to give players with his athleticism a pass on their poor defensive reputations in college. A professional environment without the pesky distractions of college sometimes unlocks an extra hunger to improve.

Ty Madden, 23, SP, DET (AA)
(AA) 103 IP, 10.92 K/9, 3.93 BB/9, 3.84 ERA

Dating back to last season, Madden now has 30 starts at Double-A. He features a classic four-pitch repertoire of roughly average offerings complemented by average or better command. Variety and command have allowed him to miss bats at a high rate. One glaring issue is a hefty home run rate. I don’t have the data necessary to diagnose if those dingers are the result of a simple or complicated issue. Presumably, they’re at least of moderate concern since he remains in Double-A.

Owen Caissie, 21, OF, CHC (AA)
458 PA, 21 HR, 6 SB, .282/.387/.525

Caissie has the Joey Gallo starter kit –plus discipline, 80-grade power, and a 32.8 percent strikeout rate. There’s some cause for hope. Caissie’s 13.9 percent swinging strike rate is well-below even Gallo’s best seasons. Both sluggers spent their age-20 campaign in Double-A. Gallo had a 23 percent swinging strike rate at the time – though he also hit 42 home runs that season. Teams have grown increasingly adept at using players in the situations for which they’re best suited. Caissie appears destined for a highly managed role, one in which he might shine as brightly as baseball’s top stars.

Three More

Robby Snelling, SDP (19): A bat-missing southpaw, Snelling was somehow only the second-youngest player the Padres promoted to Double-A last week (yep, I’m going to keep bringing up Salas). Despite strong results overall, reports indicate Snelling is a long way from a Major League debut. His fastball lacks special traits. Success will depend on his slider, an impressive offering for which he currently lacks command.

Yu-Min Lin, ARI (20): Min earned a promotion to Double-A right around Snelling’s age. He perhaps serves as a cautionary tale since they both feature unimpressive fastballs. Unlike Snelling, Lin has solid command and his primary weapon is a changeup. He’s struggled to a 5.19 ERA in Double-A.

Colton Cowser, BAL (23): One of the hottest first-half hitters in the minors, Cowser struggled to drink from his jumbo-sized cup of coffee. His MLB-hangover has followed him back to Triple-A. Since demotion, he’s batting .250/.348/.500 with a 34 percent strikeout rate in 47 plate appearances.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Red Sox Promote Ceddanne Rafaela

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3:55pm: The Sox have now officially announced all of these moves.

3:30pm: The Red Sox are recalling prospect Ceddanne Rafaela, per Ian Browne of MLB.com, along with infielder/outfielder David Hamilton. In corresponding moves, infielder Pablo Reyes is going on the injured list while outfielder Wilyer Abreu heads to the paternity list.

Rafaela, now 22, was signed by the Sox as an amateur out of Curaçao for a modest bonus of $10K. He has since performed well in his rise through the minor leagues and is now considered one of the club’s top prospects, though a somewhat divisive one. He has always hit well on the farm but has done so while swinging at just about everything, leading some evaluators to question whether that hyper-aggressive approach could be exploited by major league pitchers. He also began as an infielder but wasn’t considered an excellent defender there, though his move to center field a few years ago seems to have been an astute one, as he’s now considered elite at that position.

His overall prospect stock shot up in 2022, as he split his time between High-A and Double-A with a combined batting line of .299/.342/.538 and a wRC+ of 134 while spending more time in the outfield. That got him onto some top 100 prospect lists and selected to Boston’s 40-man roster in November, to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He’s had another strong performance here in 2023, hitting .302/.349/.520 between Double-A and Triple-A for a wRC+ of 121.

As mentioned, there is divided opinion on Rafaela as a prospect. Baseball America doesn’t currently have him on their top 100, recently ranking him #6 in the club’s system. Kiley McDaniel recently provided a top 50 update to his prospect rankings without Rafaela making the cut. However, MLB Pipeline has him at #77 in the league, Keith Law of The Athletic recent put him at #48 and FanGraphs has him all the way up at #31.

The major question mark seems to be whether his approach at the plate will work in the big leagues. He’s drawn walks in just 105 of his 1,852 plate appearances in the minors thus far, a rate of 5.7% that’s well below the 8.5% major league average. But his overall offense is strong enough that he’ll get a chance against big league pitching.

This part of the calendar is a popular time for prospect promotions, since there’s not enough time left in the season for players to exhaust rookie eligibility. That’s significant under the new collective bargaining agreement, as players with rookie status that feature on top prospect lists can potentially earn their clubs an extra draft pick in future seasons based on awards voting.

That will be a concern for the future. For now, the club will hope Rafaela can hit the ground running and perhaps provide a jolt to finish the year, as they are currently just 4.5 games out of a playoff spot. But it will also give them a chance to evaluate Rafaela prior to the offseason, with center field a bit of a question mark. Adam Duvall has spent plenty of time there but is a free agent at season’s end. Jarren Duran has had a breakout season but is getting some help from a .381 batting average on balls in play and is currently on the injured list. Abreu has been playing some center but is considered by many to be a better fit for a corner. The final weeks of the season could perhaps provide the club some more information on how their center field depth chart looks for 2024.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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