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Carlos Santana

Free Agent Stock Watch: Carlos Santana

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The Indians’ ALDS loss to the Yankees may well go down as Carlos Santana’s last hurrah in Cleveland, an organization he has been a member of since 2008. The soon-to-be 32-year-old is slated to reach free agency next month and has the credentials to rake in one of the richest paydays of the offseason. It’s possible Santana’s next contract will come from the Tribe, of course, but the small-market club is only a year removed from handing fellow first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion a substantial deal. The Indians could opt for a cheaper free agent to replace Santana, then, or perhaps they’ll turn to someone already on their talent-rich roster for aid.

Carlos Santana

If Santana has played his last game as an Indian, the Octagon client’s void will be a difficult one for the team to fill. Not only is he a switch-hitter who has consistently provided above-average offensive production from both sides of the plate dating back to his 2010 debut, but Santana has also been quite durable. Since 2011, his first full season, Santana has appeared in no fewer than 143 games in any individual campaign. He played in 154 games this year, giving him six seasons with at least 150 appearances.

The 2017 season, in which he earned $12MM to close out a bargain contract (six years, $33MM-plus), didn’t begin in ideal fashion for Santana. His production was down through June, somewhat mirroring his team’s win-loss output. The Indians sat a mildly disappointing 42-36 through the season’s first three months before going on a 60-24 tear to wind up as the AL’s top seed.

Santana played a key role in the Tribe’s memorable second-half run, as he posted a wRC+ of 169 in July, 161 in August and 119 in September. For the year, he put up a 117 mark and slashed .259/.363/.455 with 23 home runs and a .196 ISO across 667 plate appearances. Santana continued to show off his signature plate discipline along way, walking in 13.2 percent of trips and striking out only 14.1 percent of the time. It was the second straight year in which Santana struck out in under 15 percent of PAs, making him one of the few hitters trending in the right direction in a league with skyrocketing K totals.

Including his most recent output, Santana has batted .249/.365/.445 with a .196 ISO, to go with a 15.2 percent strikeout rate against a 17 percent walk mark, in his 4,782-PA career. And while Santana’s not known for his glove work, the former catcher excelled at first this season, setting career highs in games (140), Defensive Runs Saved (10) and Ultimate Zone Rating (4.8). Between his work at the plate and in the field, Santana was worth 3.0 or more fWAR for the second straight year and the fourth time in his career. He has never registered a worse fWAR than 2.1 during a full season and has accrued 23.0 in Cleveland.

To this point, Santana’s numbers look rather similar to the production former teammate Nick Swisher logged before signing a four-year, $56MM contract with the Indians as a 32-year-old in January 2013. In 5,013 PAs from 2004-12, the switch-hitting Swisher racked up 25.0 fWAR and hit a Santana-like .256/.361/.467, adding a .211 ISO and solid walk and strikeout rates (13.3 percent and 21.1 percent, respectively). Of course, the Swisher experiment failed miserably in Cleveland, which is a reminder that even free agents with seemingly safe skillsets can rapidly decline.

Although the Swisher signing came almost a half-decade ago, something in the vicinity of his contract still looks like a fair benchmark for Santana’s next deal. While the Indians, Red Sox, Mariners and Angels are among a few potential fits, it’s worth noting that most teams were averse to spending big on first base/DH types a year ago. The leaguewide reluctance to splurge on those positions played a part in the Indians unexpectedly reeling in Encarnacion for a three-year, $65MM guarantee, and if it carries into this winter, it might enable them to re-up Santana at a reasonable rate. Further, it probably won’t help Santana’s cause that fellow first base options Eric Hosmer, Logan Morrison, Yonder Alonso, Lucas Duda and teammate Jay Bruce will join him in free agency after quality seasons of their own.

Hosmer and Santana are the class of the group and the only two who figure to garner qualifying offers, which could also drive down their appeal on the market. But if Santana rejects a $17.4MM qualifying offer from the Tribe and manages to land a guarantee of at least $50MM from another team, the Indians would be entitled to a compensatory pick after the first round because they’re a revenue-sharing recipient. So, while losing Santana would be a tough blow for Cleveland, at least there’s a chance the franchise would get a nice consolation prize in return.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Antonetti, Chernoff, Francona Discuss Indians’ Offseason

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The Indians were obviously disappointed by the way things ended this year, as the club was knocked out with three-straight ALDS losses. President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti, GM Mike Chernoff, and skipper Terry Francona discussed the state of affairs heading into the offseason in a media session, as MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian reports.

Broadly, Antonetti suggested that he thinks the organization’s processes remain sound. He also cited strong performance by the roster in all three major facets of the game, while emphasizing a commitment to continue “look[ing] to get better.”

In terms of how much cash the Indians will have to work with, that evidently isn’t yet known. Unsurprisingly, though, there’s no inkling that the organization will do anything other than continue to try to win with the current core.

The group of organizational leaders discussed a variety of players and situations in the lengthy dialogue, which is well forth a full read at the above link. There’s ongoing interest in bringing back Carlos Santana, though Antonetti was non-committal on how that would progress. He did suggest that Santana could be considered for a qualifying offer, which has been set at $17.4MM. Who’s on first if he departs? Per Antonetti, the team has internal options, plus “there’s a litany of guys on the trade and free-agent market that we’ll explore.”

Jay Bruce proved a big presence for the club after his mid-season acquisition, but he’ll hit the open market as well. Chernoff expressed satisfaction with Bruce’s performance and noted there is some “mutual interest,” though it certainly seems that both sides will also explore their alternatives as well. Francona offered high praise for pending free agent reliever Bryan Shaw for his steadiness and constant readiness to enter the game. Given that, it seems possible to imagine a return, though that wasn’t addressed directly. Antonetti did say the team will “absolutely” consider re-signing Austin Jackson, who he credited for a strong bounceback year.

A few other players could present interesting questions. Somewhat notably, Antonetti said it was a “significant decision” whether to exercise Michael Brantley’s $11MM option. While he credited Brantley’s work ethic, he noted that “just getting healthy” remains a priority for the oft-injured outfielder. Likewise, there’s some uncertainty surrounding Jason Kipnis, who is under contract but doesn’t have a clear position. The versatility is a good thing, says Antonetti, but the organization also needs to consider “what opportunities are out there externally for us” in all regards before deciding how it will line up its roster. Yandy Diaz is another versatile asset, Chernoff notes, though Francona suggested he hopes to give the youngster a single position to focus on — indicating he may best be suited to the hot corner.

Also, Francona (who will, as expected, remain in his position) fielded some questions on the team’s postseason performance. In particular, he emphasized that there’s no reason to believe at present that Corey Kluber — who faltered in Game 5 and has dealt with arm slot difficulties — is anything other than healthy. Francona also noted that he has never before been so physically drained by a baseball season, saying that he intends to work on his own conditioning over the offseason. You’ll want to check out the link for more on that and other topics of discussion.

Cafardo’s Latest: J.D., Red Sox, Mariners, Stanton, Cubs, Braves

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It “would appear” the Red Sox will be involved in the chase for Diamondbacks outfielder J.D. Martinez if he hits free agency in the offseason, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. As Cafardo points out, there’s a connection between Red Sox president Dave Dombrowski and Martinez, whom the former plucked off the scrapheap when he was Detroit’s general manager in 2014. Now one of the premier hitters in the game, Martinez would provide some much-needed punch to a Red Sox club that’s lacking in the power department, though it’s unclear where he’d play in Boston. On paper, the Red Sox look set in the outfield for the next few years with Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and Jackie Bradley Jr. in the fold.

More rumblings from Cafardo:

  • Indians first baseman/designated hitter Carlos Santana is another free agent-to-be who’s likely to land on the Red Sox’s radar, per Cafardo, who also names the Mariners as a probable suitor. Considering their positions, the switch-hitting Santana would seem to be a more natural fit than Martinez for Boston, which has gotten subpar production at first from impending free agent Mitch Moreland this year. Meanwhile, Mariners first basemen ranked last in the majors in fWAR (minus-0.7) during the regular season. Their top option, Yonder Alonso, could depart in free agency, which may lead to a Santana pursuit.
  • The Cubs could be a team to watch if the Marlins shop right fielder Giancarlo Stanton in the offseason, Cafardo suggests. It’s unclear whether the Cubs would have interest in the potential NL MVP, who’s due $295MM through 2028 (if he doesn’t opt out of his contract after 2020), but they have plenty of players the Marlins “would love” to acquire, notes Cafardo.
  • Royals GM Dayton Moore will only head to Atlanta if the Braves give him complete control, according to Cafardo. That jibes with a previous report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale and suggests that president John Hart would have to exit for a Moore-Braves union to come to fruition. Hart isn’t planning on leaving, however, Cafardo reports. Two members of the Nationals’ front office – assistant GM Doug Harris and the previously reported Dan Jennings – as well as ex-Red Sox GM Ben Cherington (now in Toronto) are on Hart’s radar as he seeks a replacement for John Coppolella, Cafardo relays.
  • Yomiuri Giants right-hander Miles Mikolas is eyeing a return to the majors, and if he does opt out of his contract in Japan, it appears he’ll draw plenty of big league interest. Fourteen major league teams scouted Mikolas’ most recent starts, and there’s a belief among some that he could be a capable mid-rotation starter if he comes back, according to Cafardo. Mikolas, 29, logged 37 appearances (10 starts) with the Padres and Rangers from 2012-14 and recorded a 5.32 ERA, 6.1 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9. He has been stellar with Yomiuri since 2015, though, with a 2.18 ERA, 8.0 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 across 62 starts.
  • The Tigers decided before the season ended to part with manager Brad Ausmus, but he told Cafardo that he wouldn’t have returned “even if they had offered me a three-year deal.” Ausmus didn’t believe he was the right match for a Detroit team in the initial stages of a rebuild. On potentially managing someplace else, he said, “I’d have to study the situation and see if it was the right fit for me.”

AL Central Notes: Gibson, Santana, Kipnis, Abreu, Merrifield

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Though right-hander Kyle Gibson at one point looked like a clear non-tender candidate for the Twins this offseason, his revitalized performance in the season’s second half makes it look far likelier that he’ll return. The 29-year-old former first-rounder limped to a ghastly 6.29 ERA with 5.9 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 and a 51.1 percent ground-ball rate through the season’s first half and was even optioned to Triple-A Rochester back in May. However, he’s logged a brilliant 2.83 ERA with 7.3 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 50.6 percent grounder rate in 54 innings across his past nine outings.

Asked by 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson on his latest podcast if Gibson would be tendered a contract this winter (audio link, with Levine joining around the 27-minute mark and discussing Gibson at 37 minutes), Levine replied: “Starting pitching — and quality starting pitching — is at a premium. … Depth is tantamount. We are aspirational of being a playoff-relevant team moving forward. Those types of teams need to have a wealth of starting pitching options, and I think Kyle Gibson has established himself as very much a part of that equation moving forward for the Minnesota Twins.” Gibson is earning $2.9MM in 2017, and while there’s still of course time for things to change, it sounds like he’ll be retained and earn a slight raise on that figure for the 2018 campaign.

More from the AL Central…

  • Indians slugger Carlos Santana admits to Zack Meisel of The Athletic that he put a significant amount of pressure on himself early this season as he entered a contract year. Santana struggled badly through the first 10 weeks or so of the 2017 campaign, but he credits first-year teammate Edwin Encarnacion — who had a tumultuous free-agent experience himself last winter — for getting his mind into a better place and turning his season around at the plate. “He told me to keep playing baseball and enjoy the (season) and play hard every day and don’t think about it,” says Santana. “He is a good influence for me and my mind.” Meisel notes that Santana hopes to remain in Cleveland — FanRag’s Jon Heyman wrote the same yesterday, as he has at various points this year — though the Indians will have some tough roster decisions to make with relatively limited finances. (A second deep playoff run, of course, wouldn’t hurt their financial outlook.)
  • Jason Kipnis is expected to start in center field for the Indians as soon as this Sunday, per Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Bradley Zimmer’s season-ending injury created an opening, and it was reported earlier this week that Kipnis would get a look there in his place. A center fielder in his college days, Kipnis isn’t exactly unfamiliar with the position, though it’s been seven years since Cleveland moved him to second base. Manager Terry Francona tells Hoynes that the training staff has to sign off on the decision still, though he adds that it’d be a surprise if they didn’t, given how healthy Kipnis has looked recently as he nears the end of his rehab from a hamstring injury.
  • Jose Abreu has made it clear that he hopes to remain with the White Sox even amid the team’s rebuild, writes MLB.com’s Phil Rogers. Chicago values his leadership and productive bat, Rogers notes, and he wonders if the team would make a four- or five-year offer to Abreu to keep him around this offseason. There’s no indication that there have been any actual extension negotiations between the two sides, though Rogers suggests that both Abreu and Avisail Garcia could make sense as longer-term pieces in Chicago.
  • Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star took an excellent look at the remarkable late blooming of Royals second baseman Whit Merrifield. As Dodd points out, Merrifield is one of just seven players in the past 50 years to debut after his 27th birthday and compile five wins above replacement in his first two seasons. The others on that list were all established stars in other countries before coming to the United States (e.g. Ichiro Suzuki, Jose Abreu, Hideki Matsui). Dodd tracks Merrifield’s minor league career, noting that he was passed on entirely in the Rule 5 Draft along the way. It’s a must-read column that is rife with quotes from GM Dayton Moore, Merrifield’s coaches from his amateur days, several of Merrifield’s teammates and, of course, Merrifield himself. Now 28 years old, Merrifield has broken out with a .285/.324/.463 batting line, 17 homers, 29 steals and quality defense at second base — likely cementing himself in the Royals’ lineup for the 2018 season and beyond.

Olney’s Latest: Darvish, Gray, Marlins, Indians

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There’s a belief among some rival evaluators that the Rangers will trade ace Yu Darvish by the July 31 deadline if they don’t believe they’ll be able to re-sign the impending free agent, reports Buster Olney of ESPN.com. With Texas unsure of whether it’ll be able to retain Darvish long term, there’s at least one starter-needy team waiting to make a move until it sees whether the Rangers shop him. Consequently, the possibility of a Darvish trade is affecting the market for starters and “muddying the waters” for the AL West rival Athletics in their quest to deal Sonny Gray, writes Olney.

  • Given that the Marlins’ ownership situation is in limbo, their baseball department isn’t in proper position to weigh offers for outfielders Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich, according to Olney. Moving either could make the Marlins more appealing to potential bidders because their contracts factor into the franchise’s heavy debt, though Olney notes that trading a superstar like Stanton might sabotage the rebranding effort of the next owner. And if Jeffrey Loria’s successor signs off on a Stanton trade, the team’s fan base could see it as a typical Marlins cost-cutting maneuver.
  • First baseman Carlos Santana’s down season may help explain the Indians’ interest in slugging outfielders J.D. Martinez and Jay Bruce, suggests Olney. The Tribe missed out on acquiring Martinez, whom the Tigers sent to the Diamondbacks this week, but the Mets’ Bruce remains a prime trade candidate. It’s unclear whether Bruce would play first for the Indians, who have seen Santana slump to a .238/.335/.406 batting line in 397 plate appearances during a contract year. Cleveland could acquire a natural first baseman instead, with Olney pointing out that Texas’ Mike Napoli (a former Indian) and Oakland’s Yonder Alonso may end up elsewhere.
  • It’s a buyers’ market this year as the deadline approaches, so a successful return for sellers could depend more on how much salary they shed than the quality of prospects they acquire, per Olney. As an example, Olney points to the trade Miami and Seattle made this week. The Marlins received four prospects for reliever David Phelps and got rid of his $4.6MM salary in the process, but only one of those minor leaguers (outfielder Brayan Hernandez) looks particularly promising. The quantity of prospects the Marlins picked up isn’t impressing rival evaluators, as some of them believe landing four players was done to make the package look better than it actually is.

Heyman’s Latest: Betts, Santana, Rays, Bautista, Braves, Arrieta, Holland

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The Red Sox looked into a long-term extension with Mookie Betts last winter, but both Betts and Xander Bogaerts are comfortable in year-to-year deals for now, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports.  Betts is already making a nice sum in endorsement deals, so it perhaps isn’t surprising that he (and Bogaerts) are in no rush to pursue a multi-year contract.  Bogaerts was arbitration-eligible for the first time last winter and is earning $4.5MM for 2017, while Betts will get his first run through the arb process this coming offseason, so while the price tags for both young stars will rise considerably, the Sox are still getting an overall bargain.

Here’s more from Heyman’s notes about the American League and National League from earlier this week…

  • There still haven’t been any talks about an extension between Carlos Santana and the Indians.  One executive believes Santana can land four years and $60MM in free agency this winter.
  • The Rays aren’t looking to sell, as they have a winning record and are in the thick of the AL East and wild card races.  Tampa Bay has been constantly cited as a potential seller given their financial limitations, with pending free agent Alex Cobb reportedly a candidate to switch teams.  Still, the Rays’ rotation has been thinned by Blake Snell’s demotion to the minors and Matt Andriese’s hip injury, so the club could hold off on any pitching decisions until closer to the deadline.
  • The Rays made a “creative” offer to Jose Bautista last winter that could have become a three-year deal if all options had been exercised.  The Rays were one of relatively few teams that were linked to Bautista (Heyman also mentions the Indians had interest) this winter, and ultimately, the slugger chose to stay in Toronto for more guaranteed money.  Bautista is earning $18MM this season, with a $17MM mutual option (with a $500K buyout) for 2018 and a $20MM club option for 2019 that can vest based on games played.
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman is in his last year under contract but the team will give him an extension if he wishes.  The same is also true of manager Joe Girardi.  The Yankees generally wait until after the season to explore new deals for management, though with the team performing so well, Cashman and Girardi both seem very likely to remain in their current positions.
  • The Braves are expected to look into trades for pending free agents such as Jaime Garcia and Brandon Phillips.  Both players are performing well, with Phillips on pace for his best overall offensive season since 2011 and Garcia bouncing back ERA-wise (even if his peripherals are somewhat middling) after a disappointing 2016 season.
  • Speaking of the Braves’ Garcia, he has hired Michael Moye as his agent.  In another representation change, White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia hired Gene Mato in April.  For more on who represents who in the baseball world, be sure to check out MLBTR’s Agency Database.
  • A rival executive believes Jake Arrieta will get “at least five years” in free agency this winter despite a shaky performance thus far in 2017.  Arrieta’s 4.64 ERA over 77 2/3 IP could be in part due to some bad luck (a .319 BABIP, 65.8% strand rate and a spike in his home run rate), though his velocity and ground-ball rates are both down from last season and he is posting his highest hard-hit ball rate since 2010.  A sixth guaranteed year could be possible if Arrieta can so easily obtain five years, Heyman reasons, though given the Cubs ace’s struggles and his age (32 next Opening Day), I have my doubts.
  • Greg Holland’s outstanding comeback season with the Rockies could put him in line for a free agent deal similar to Mark Melancon’s four-year, $62MM contract with the Giants from last offseason.  Scott Boras, Holland’s agent, is aiming even higher, reportedly looking for a deal in the range of the record-setting (for relievers) contracts landed by Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen.
  • One Nationals source says the team thinks the Dodgers could be Washington’s biggest competition for Bryce Harper when the star outfielder reaches free agency after the 2018 season.  Harper has seemingly been linked to the Yankees for years, though as Heyman notes, Aaron Judge’s emergence in right field could mean that New York instead pursues Manny Machado first among the star-studded 2018-19 free agent class before looking into Harper.  Then again, if the Yankees are able to “get below the [luxury tax] threshold, there’s no telling what they may try to do” that winter, given how their tax penalty clock will be reset just as multiple superstar players will hit the open market.

Heyman’s Latest: Royals, Marlins, Tribe, Tigers, Mets, Yanks, Astros

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With the trade deadline drawing nearer, FanRag’s Jon Heyman lists 70 players who could end up on the block over the next two months. Heyman ranks the players in order of name value and includes the likes of Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, Josh Donaldson and Ryan Braun near the top of the list. Check out the full piece for an in-depth look at which stars and role players might switch uniforms this summer.

Now the latest from Heyman’s American League and National League notes columns:

  • Prior to the season, Royals impending free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer shot down a report that he was seeking a 10-year deal. But there’s still a belief within the organization that he will request something close to a decadelong pact in the coming months, per Heyman, who adds that Hosmer is the soon-to-be free agent the Royals most want to keep. However, Kansas City hasn’t made a serious offer to Hosmer on account of what could be a lofty asking price, and the team expects the 27-year-old to reach free agency. Fellow longtime Royals Mike Moustakas (third base), Lorenzo Cain (center field) and Alcides Escobar (shortstop) are also likely to hit the market in the offseason. Moustakas is the Royals’ biggest priority after Hosmer, suggests Heyman, while they seem resigned to the idea that Cain will find a larger payday elsewhere. Escobar, the weakest player of the four, could re-sign if the price is right. At one point, he was seeking $10MM per year, but his cost has come down thanks to his dreadful offensive start (.174/.203/.228 in 196 plate appearances). Meanwhile, right-hander Ian Kennedy probably won’t opt out of the remaining three years and $49MM left on his contract, Heyman writes.
  • Alex Rodriguez could still factor into the Marlins’ next ownership group if the faction including Tagg Romney, Tom Glavine and Dave Stewart lands the franchise. Given A-Rod’s controversial past, the Romney team is keeping him “at arm’s length” for now; even if they weren’t, Rodriguez isn’t allowed to be part of an ownership group as long as he’s still collecting a salary from the Yankees. The 41-year-old’s contract with the Bombers expires at season’s end. His former teammate Derek Jeter, who’s vying with Jeb Bush and against Romney & Co. to purchase the Marlins, isn’t planning to invest much money, says Heyman. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported Saturday that Bush and Jeter are leading the race to acquire the franchise.
  • Heyman reported in April that the Indians would look to extend first baseman/designated hitter Carlos Santana, but discussions between the two sides still haven’t taken place. They might not occur, either, as Heyman relays that Santana is likely to hit free agency at season’s end. At .219/.321/.390 in 215 PAs, the 31-year-old hasn’t carried his typically above-average production into this season so far, but he continues to exhibit quality plate discipline with 27 walks against 31 strikeouts. Santana’s walk rate has dropped in each season since 2014, however, and is now at a career-low 12.6 percent.
  • When the offseason rolls around, odds are that Tigers left fielder Justin Upton will not opt out of the remaining four years and $88MM left on his deal, reports Heyman. “Not happening,” one rival general manager said of a potential opt-out. Upton hasn’t lived up to his lucrative contract in his year-plus in Detroit, putting him on track to take the bird-in-the-hand approach.
  • It appears first baseman Lucas Duda is in his final season with the Mets, as Heyman implies that he’s primed to sign elsewhere over the winter. The 31-year-old power hitter has been among the Mets’ top players this season, having slashed .267/.406/.570 with six home runs in 106 PAs, but they do have a well-regarded youngster behind him in Dominic Smith. Baseball America sees Smith, 21, as the game’s 65th-best prospect.
  • Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez is making $557,900 this year, according to Heyman, who reported in March that the backstop had agreed to a salary worth more than the minimum of $535K.
  • Add the Astros to the list of teams interested in Cuban shortstop prospect Jose Israel Garcia, who recently became a free agent. The Astros have already exceeded their pool allotment for the 2016-17 international free agent class, which could indicate that they’re looking to sign the 19-year-old Garcia before the period ends June 15.

Indians Plan To Explore Extension With Carlos Santana

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The Indians have been active in extension talks of late, reaching multi-year agreements with infielder Jose Ramirez (five years, $26MM) and catcher Roberto Perez (four years, $9MM) in addition to making an effort to hammer out a deal with star shortstop Francisco Lindor. They may not be done just yet, either, as Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reports that the Indians will explore an extension with first baseman/designated hitter Carlos Santana in attempt to prevent him from reaching free agency following the 2017 season.

Santana, 31 this weekend, has long been one of the most productive and durable hitters in the Cleveland lineup. Dating back to the 2011 campaign, he’s been on the disabled list just once: an 11-day absence on the 7-day DL in 2014 due to concussion symptoms. Since Opening Day 2011, Santana has averaged 153 games and 654 plate appearances per season. In that time, his bat has been above the league average in each year, and his collective .247/.363/.443 batting line in that time has translated to a 121 OPS+ and a 124 wRC+ (meaning, essentially, that he’s been 21 percent to 24 percent better than the league-average hitter after accounting for league and park).

While Santana was a catcher for much of his early career and had a brief experiment as a third baseman in 2014, he’s largely limited to first base and designated hitter duties at this stage of his career. He played only those two positions during the regular season in 2015-16 (plus two left field appearances in the World Series), and it doesn’t seem especially likely that a team would feel comfortable playing him elsewhere with any sort of regularity.

It’s certainly possible to envision Santana preferring to remain with the only team he’s ever known and one that looks to be very well-positioned for the near future. However, a significant discount on an extension may not be likely with free agency just six months away. His initial contract — a five-year, $21MM extension — already looks to be a feather in Cleveland’s cap, after all, even with his 2017 option elevating his total earnings to $31.8MM over six years.

Then again, Santana will hit the open market heading into his age-32 season and with the memory of a free-agent market that was not kind to defensively limited sluggers fresh in his mind. From my vantage point, he’s a definite qualifying offer candidate at season’s end, which wouldn’t do any favors for his market. (Although Santana may not face the same hurdles as others have in recent years now that the new collective bargaining agreement has lowered the penalty for signing a player that rejected a QO.)

Cleveland entered the 2017 season with a club-record $128MM payroll, but the Indians only have about $77MM committed to the 2018 payroll. That sum could rise depending on the fate of outfielder Michael Brantley ($11MM club option), left-hander Boone Logan ($7MM club option) and Josh Tomlin ($3MM club option). There will also be arbitration raises on the horizon for Cody Allen, Danny Salazar, Trevor Bauer, Lonnie Chisenhall, Zach McAllister and Dan Otero, further complicating the financial outlook. That said, if ownership is comfortable with a payroll in this range once again in 2018, the Indians could probably fit a Santana extension into the payroll — especially were it to be backloaded in nature.

AL Central Notes: Indians, White Sox, Royals

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The Indians plan to utilize Carlos Santana as the team’s primary first baseman, skipper Terry Francona told reporters including MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (via Twitter). That means that Edwin Encarnacion will mostly serve as the team’s designated hitter, though the two will also exchange roles at times. While that’ll increase the wear and tear somewhat on Santana, who’s slated to hit the open market after the season, it will give him a chance also to show his defensive chops after lining up as the DH primarily in 2016.

More from the AL Central:

  • The White Sox could welcome Todd Frazier back to action as soon as Wednesday, Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago tweets. Manager Rick Renteria says that the veteran has improved quite a bit over the past several days. Chicago is hoping to ease Frazier into action without inflaming his strained oblique; though the club would no doubt love to showcase him for possibly interested rivals, the priority no doubt is on making sure that a more significant injury doesn’t develop — potentially fouling up hopes that he’ll develop into a nice trade deadline chip.
  • After struggling through a rookie season in which he hit .185/.231/.281 in 149 plate appearances, Royals middle infielder Raul Mondesi is “a different guy this spring,” manager Ned Yost told Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com. While the 21-year-old Mondesi has impressed thus far as one of four contenders for the Royals’ second base job, the fact that he has minor league options remaining could work against him, Flanagan notes. Of the other contenders, Cheslor Cuthbert and Christian Colon don’t have options left, so they look like shoo-ins for roster spots. Whit Merrifield, meanwhile, could be too valuable to the Royals as a utility man to demote. Nevertheless, Yost has left the door open for Mondesi to grab a spot. “The decision will come down [to] what is best for his development,” Yost said. “If he’s at a point where he can contribute … Defensively, his range is unbelievable. The coverage is unbelievable in terms of how far he can go side to side, and getting pop flies.”
  • Royals DH/outfielder Brandon Moss is dealing with some lower back stiffness, as Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star tweets. He’ll sit out today’s action, though it seems there’s little reason for concern at this point. Moss is considered day to day.

Carlos Santana Changes Agents

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With free agency on the horizon, veteran DH Carlos Santana has decided to change agents, as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports recently reported (via Twitter). Santana, 30, will now be represented by Octagon.

The Indians could conceivably engage Santana’s new representatives about another extension, though that has never seemed particularly likely. A return to Cleveland could still come to pass, especially if the club hangs a qualifying offer on him, but it would rate as a surprise if the sides were to strike a new deal this spring.

Santana’s current deal, signed when he hadn’t even reached his second year of MLB service, wraps up this year. The club picked up a $12MM option for 2017, meaning that the contract ended up paying out $31.8MM over its six-year span, which covered a pair of pre-arbitration years, all three arb campaigns, and one would-be free agent season.

Things have changed quite a bit in the meantime for the switch-hitting Santana. He has been steadily productive offensively, compiling a lifetime .247/.365/.444 slash, but no longer spends any time as a catcher. While he has logged plenty of innings at first and ever some at third base, Santana spent 92 games as the Indians’ DH in 2016.

Landing big bucks has never been harder for defensively limited sluggers, as this last winter’s free agent market showed. But there’s some reason to believe that Santana will find broader demand than some otherwise similar players. He remains relatively youthful, offers the versatility of hitting from both sides of the plate, and still delivers the kind of impeccable plate discipline (99 strikeouts against 99 walks in 2016) that many organizations covet. Notably, Santana was able to maintain that outstanding zone control while hitting a career-best 34 home runs last year.

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