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Qualifying Offer Rumors: Monday

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Teams have until 5pm ET tonight to issue one-year, $17.4MM qualifying offers to their impending free agents if they wish to recoup draft pick compensation in the event that their free agent(s) depart and sign elsewhere. Those unfamiliar with the process can refer back to a lengthy exploration of the QO system (penned by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk), which was revamped last winter in the 2017-21 collective bargaining agreement.

For those looking for a Cliff’s Notes-esque refresher, here’s the QO system in a few sentences. MLB teams can issue a one-year offer worth the mean salary of the league’s 125 highest-paid players to an impending free agent in order to receive compensation in the next year’s draft. A player can receive a qualifying offer only once in his career and is eligible to receive a QO if and only if he spent the entire season with his club. Players that accept a QO are considered signed and cannot be traded until June 15 of the upcoming season. Players have 10 days to decide whether to accept or reject.

The new CBA places the standard compensatory pick after Competitive Balance Round B — meaning it should fall somewhere between picks 70 to 80. Elements like revenue sharing, luxury tax penalization and size of the player’s new contract can all impact the placement of the comp pick, however. Teams that sign a player who rejected a QO will be required to forfeit at least one pick in the next year’s draft. Each team’s top pick is protected, but the placement of forfeited pick(s) is dependent on the luxury tax and revenue sharing. International pool money may also need to be forfeited. (Again, I’d highly recommend checking out Mark’s piece, in full, for more details.)

Here are today’s rumors…

  • MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian calls it a “safe bet” that the Indians will issue a qualifying offer to first baseman Carlos Santana (Twitter link). The 31-year-old switch-hitter batted .259/.363/.455 with 23 home runs and career-best work at first base in 2017. While the market for corner bats hasn’t been great in recent years, Santana’s defensive improvements, power and longstanding reputation as one of baseball’s most patient hitters (career 15.2 percent walk rate) should serve him well on the open market even with draft-pick compensation attached to his name.

Earlier Updates

  • Reds shortstop Zack Cozart is still unlikely to receive a qualifying offer, per FanRag’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links). That’s been the direction in which Cincinnati has reportedly been leaning for the past couple of weeks, though MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon hears that the Reds are still debating the QO for Cozart. Despite the Reds’ rebuilding status, it still seems surprising that they could let him walk for no compensation. Cozart had a breakout .297/.385/.548 season at the plate in 2017 and even in the two years prior was a roughly league-average bat with well-above average defense at shortstop. He should be able to top $17.4MM by a wide margin in free agency, and even if he accepts, he’d be a bargain at that rate. The Reds do already have $86MM worth of payroll commitments and arbitration projections for next season, but there are other areas (non-tenders, trades) that they could trim from the payroll if need be..
  • Some players — Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Jake Arrieta, Wade Davis, Greg Holland and Lance Lynn — have long seemed like locks to receive a QO. Alex Cobb, too, has stood out as a logical recipient, though the Rays’ payroll limitations at least cast some doubt on that possibility. Heyman reported last night that Cobb would receive a QO, and it’s been reported by multiple outlets that each member of that Royals trio will receive a QO as well.

Quick Hits: Callaway, Tribe, Santana, Yankees, Long

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It was just under a decade ago that Mickey Callaway agreed to become the interim head coach for Texas A&M International University, which sparked his interest in teaching and training young players.  Though Callaway pitched in Taiwan and in independent baseball in 2008, that was his final season as a player, as Callaway tells Newsday’s Marc Carig that “It was hard to concentrate on playing after feeling that I was ready to start coaching.”  Carig’s profile of Callaway’s first time running a team is well worth a read, providing insight into the man who has become a big league manager for the first time after being hired by the Mets.

As we enjoy a wild Game Five of the World Series, here’s more from around baseball….

  • The Indians seem prepared to spend in the short-term to keep their window of contention open, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer opines during his look at the some of the Tribe’s free agents this winter.  Pluto figures Carlos Santana will be issued a qualifying offer, and the team will monitor the markets of Santana and Jay Bruce to see if either could be re-signed for a reasonable amount, a la how several other veteran sluggers received smaller-than-expected deals last winter (which allowed the Tribe to sign Edwin Encarnacion).  As for other decisions, Pluto thinks Bryan Shaw and Boone Logan will both be pitching elsewhere in 2018, while Joe Smith seems the likeliest of the relievers to return to Cleveland.  Josh Tomlin’s $3MM club option seems like a good bet to be exercised by the team.
  • Also from Pluto, newly-hired pitching coach Carl Willis said two other teams had made him job offers and two others showed interest in his services.  With this kind of interest, the Indians had to jump to sign the veteran pitching coach just a few days after ex-pitching coach Mickey Callaway left for the Mets.
  • Mets hitting coach Kevin Long has been mentioned as a candidate for the Yankees’ managerial job, though he may also be a contender to be the Yankees’ next hitting coach, George A. King III of the New York Post writes.  Long previously served as the Bronx Bombers’ hitting coach from 2007-14 before moving over to his post across town with the Mets.  Alan Cockrell has been the Yankees’ hitting coach for the last two years, though with a new manager coming, there are likely to be changes made to the Yankees’ coaching staff.

Sorting the Skills Of The Best Free Agent First Basemen

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Last offseason featured a particularly deep free agent first base crop. Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Trumbo, Mike Napoli, Brandon Moss, Steve Pearce and Eric Thames ultimately earned a combined $146MM in guarantees. The 2018 offseason is set to feature yet another deep collection of first base talent, with eight free agents at the position who provided at least 0.8 fWAR to their 2017 teams (note: this list assumes that Adam Lind’s $5MM mutual option will not be exercised). Below is a list of these players sorted by 2017 fWAR, with their respective 2018 season ages indicated in parentheses.

  1. Eric Hosmer (28) – 4.1
  2. Logan Morrison (30) – 3.3
  3. Carlos Santana (32) – 3.0
  4. Yonder Alonso (31) – 2.4
  5. Lucas Duda (31) – 1.1
  6. Adam Lind (34) – 0.9
  7. Mitch Moreland (32) – 0.9
  8. Mark Reynolds (34) – 0.8

But while WAR is a great measure of a player’s overall value, it doesn’t necessarily paint a picture of his unique individual skill set. Each of these first basemen have their own individual strengths and weaknesses, so I’ve decided to take a close look at exactly what these players offer to prospective teams. All stats are from the 2017 season.

Power

Isolated Power (ISO):

  1. Duda – .279
  2. Morrison – .270
  3. Alonso – .235
  4. Reynolds – .219
  5. Lind – .210
  6. Moreland – .197
  7. Santana – .196
  8. Hosmer – .179

Extra Base Hits Per Plate Appearance (Multiplied by 100):

  1. Duda – 11.81
  2. Morrison – 10.14
  3. Moreland – 9.72
  4. Alonso – 9.60
  5. Santana – 9.45
  6. Lind – 9.30
  7. Reynolds – 8.94
  8. Hosmer – 8.49

Duda and Morrison are the clear leading candidates in the power department, with Hosmer showing a weakness in that department relative to the competition. It’s worth noting that Alonso’s power numbers are propped up by a monster first half; he cooled off significantly after a midseason trade to the Mariners. Also worth mentioning is the fact that Reynolds played half his games at hitter-friendly Coors Field last season. A move to any other ballpark could negatively impact his power numbers. Though Santana had a down year in the power department, his larger body of work suggests he might hit for more extra bases in 2018.

Plate Discipline

Strikeout Rate (K%):

  1. Santana – 14.1%
  2. Hosmer – 15.5%
  3. Lind – 15.6%
  4. Moreland – 20.8%
  5. Alonso – 22.6%
  6. Morrison – 24.8%
  7. Duda – 27.5%
  8. Reynolds – 29.5%

Walk Rate (BB%):

  1. Morrison – 13.5%
  2. Santana – 13.2%
  3. Alonso – 13.1%
  4. Duda – 12.2%
  5. Reynolds – 11.6%
  6. Moreland – 9.9%
  7. Hosmer – 9.8%
  8. Lind – 9.3%

Chase Rate on Pitches Outside the Strike Zone (O-Swing %):

  1. Santana – 21.4%
  2. Reynolds – 26.1%
  3. Duda – 26.8%
  4. Morrison – 27.7%
  5. Alonso – 27.7%
  6. Hosmer – 30.0%
  7. Moreland – 30.2%
  8. Lind – 32.6%

Santana is by far and away the leading candidate in the plate discipline department, ranking first or second in all three of the above categories. Reynolds and Moreland could probably be considered to have the worst plate discipline of the group, though it’s interesting that nobody outside of Santana appears to distinguish themselves as extremely good or extremely bad relative to the rest of the crop.

Contact Ability

Contact Rate (Contact %):

  1. Lind – 83.7%
  2. Santana – 82.1%
  3. Hosmer – 80.2%
  4. Moreland – 75.7%
  5. Alonso – 75.6%
  6. Duda – 74.9%
  7. Morrison – 73.7%
  8. Reynolds – 67.6%

Contact rate is really the only stat necessary to measure this skill, and Lind, Santana and Hosmer use it to set themselves apart. Reynolds, on the other hand, is an outlier on the opposite end; it seems he’d probably be more valuable to teams like the Athletics or Rays that rely heavily on the home run ball rather than stringing together consecutive walks and hits.

Quality of Contact

Barrels Per Plate Appearance (Multiplied by 100):

  1. Moreland – 8.2
  2. Morrison- 7.8
  3. Duda – 7.1
  4. Alonso – 6.3
  5. Lind – 6.3
  6. Santana – 5.4
  7. Hosmer – 5.2
  8. Reynolds – 4.9

Hard Contact Rate (Hard%):

  1. Duda – 42.1%
  2. Lind – 39.4%
  3. Moreland – 38.9%
  4. Morrison – 37.4%
  5. Alonso – 36.0%
  6. Reynolds – 34.5%
  7. Santana – 33.0%
  8. Hosmer – 29.5%

Average Exit Velocity, MPH (AEV):

  1. Lind – 90.6
  2. Duda – 90.3
  3. Hosmer – 89.6
  4. Alonso – 89.2
  5. Moreland – 89.1
  6. Morrison – 88.6
  7. Santana – 88.3
  8. Reynolds – 87.1

Lind, Duda and Moreland would appear to have a leg up on their competition as far as quality of contact. Santana and Reynolds, meanwhile, rank near the bottom in all three categories. It’s fascinating to observe that, although Hosmer ranks poorly in hard contact rate and barrels per plate appearance, his average exit velocity reflects a valuable skill that led to the best batting average of the group this past season (.318).

Offensive Versatility

wRC+ vs. Left-Handed Pitching:

  1. Morrison – 109
  2. Santana – 106
  3. Hosmer – 99
  4. Reynolds – 87
  5. Moreland – 85
  6. Lind – 81
  7. Alonso – 80
  8. Duda – 72

Pull Rate (Pull%):

  1. Hosmer – 31.3%
  2. Lind – 35.4%
  3. Moreland – 37.2%
  4. Alonso – 40.8%
  5. Reynolds – 44.0%
  6. Duda – 46.2%
  7. Morrison – 46.5%
  8. Santana – 51.2%

Each of this year’s free agent first basemen is a better hitter against right-handed pitching, even the right-handed Reynolds and switch-hitting Santana. The purpose of looking at their wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching is to expose the weaknesses of Lind, Alonso and Duda, all of whom may not be seen as everyday players. In addition, players without the ability to spray the ball about the field are more vulnerable to defensive shifts, limiting their offensive value. Duda is a clear loser in terms of offensive versatility, while Hosmer is a clear winner in that regard. It would seem as though Reynolds and Moreland are neither helped nor hurt by a look into these statistics.

Baserunning

Fangraphs Baserunning Rating (BsR):

  1. Hosmer – 1.8
  2. Santana – 0.8
  3. Morrison – 0.0
  4. Lind – [-1.3]
  5. Moreland – [-2.4]
  6. Alonso – [-2.5]
  7. Reynolds – [-2.7]
  8. Duda – [-3.9]

Statcast Sprint Speed, Feet Per Second:

  1. Hosmer – 27.5
  2. Morrison – 26.9
  3. Santana – 26.7
  4. Moreland – 26.3
  5. Lind – 25.9
  6. Reynolds – 25.9
  7. Duda – 25.7
  8. Alonso – 25.3

Hosmer is the best in this category by a notable margin, while Santana provides some positive baserunning value as well. This category also exposes another blatant weakness for Duda. There’s not much else to say about the baserunning value of this group; the above numbers tell a pretty clear story.

Fielding

Ultimate Zone Rating Runs Per 150 Innings (UZR/150):

  1. Moreland – 5.8
  2. Santana – 4.7
  3. Morrison – 2.0
  4. Duda – [-0.1]
  5. Hosmer – [-0.4]
  6. Reynolds – [-1.5]
  7. Alonso – [-3.3]
  8. Lind – [-16.3]

Defensive Runs Saved (DRS):

  1. Santana – 10
  2. Moreland – 10
  3. Morrison – 1
  4. Duda – [-1]
  5. Lind – [-2]
  6. Reynolds – [-4]
  7. Hosmer – [-7]
  8. Alonso – [-9]

If we’re to evaluate defense based on 2017 statistics, Santana and Moreland get a huge boost to their value. Duda and Morrison grade out close to average, while the remaining four players would seem to be defensive liabilities. While Hosmer is a former Gold Glove winner, he hasn’t been great over the past couple of seasons, so it’s unlikely he’ll be paid for his past defensive reputation. Perhaps most notably, the defensive rankings absolutely cripple Lind, such to the point that he may be limited to American League suitors.

While it wouldn’t be terribly difficult to rank these players based on their expected earning potential, each of the above skills could factor into their ultimate landing spots. The unique skill sets of each of these free agents will cause their overall value to increase and decrease relative to each team, and it will be well worth tracking where each of these players ends up.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Carlos Santana

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The Indians’ ALDS loss to the Yankees may well go down as Carlos Santana’s last hurrah in Cleveland, an organization he has been a member of since 2008. The soon-to-be 32-year-old is slated to reach free agency next month and has the credentials to rake in one of the richest paydays of the offseason. It’s possible Santana’s next contract will come from the Tribe, of course, but the small-market club is only a year removed from handing fellow first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion a substantial deal. The Indians could opt for a cheaper free agent to replace Santana, then, or perhaps they’ll turn to someone already on their talent-rich roster for aid.

Carlos Santana

If Santana has played his last game as an Indian, the Octagon client’s void will be a difficult one for the team to fill. Not only is he a switch-hitter who has consistently provided above-average offensive production from both sides of the plate dating back to his 2010 debut, but Santana has also been quite durable. Since 2011, his first full season, Santana has appeared in no fewer than 143 games in any individual campaign. He played in 154 games this year, giving him six seasons with at least 150 appearances.

The 2017 season, in which he earned $12MM to close out a bargain contract (six years, $33MM-plus), didn’t begin in ideal fashion for Santana. His production was down through June, somewhat mirroring his team’s win-loss output. The Indians sat a mildly disappointing 42-36 through the season’s first three months before going on a 60-24 tear to wind up as the AL’s top seed.

Santana played a key role in the Tribe’s memorable second-half run, as he posted a wRC+ of 169 in July, 161 in August and 119 in September. For the year, he put up a 117 mark and slashed .259/.363/.455 with 23 home runs and a .196 ISO across 667 plate appearances. Santana continued to show off his signature plate discipline along way, walking in 13.2 percent of trips and striking out only 14.1 percent of the time. It was the second straight year in which Santana struck out in under 15 percent of PAs, making him one of the few hitters trending in the right direction in a league with skyrocketing K totals.

Including his most recent output, Santana has batted .249/.365/.445 with a .196 ISO, to go with a 15.2 percent strikeout rate against a 17 percent walk mark, in his 4,782-PA career. And while Santana’s not known for his glove work, the former catcher excelled at first this season, setting career highs in games (140), Defensive Runs Saved (10) and Ultimate Zone Rating (4.8). Between his work at the plate and in the field, Santana was worth 3.0 or more fWAR for the second straight year and the fourth time in his career. He has never registered a worse fWAR than 2.1 during a full season and has accrued 23.0 in Cleveland.

To this point, Santana’s numbers look rather similar to the production former teammate Nick Swisher logged before signing a four-year, $56MM contract with the Indians as a 32-year-old in January 2013. In 5,013 PAs from 2004-12, the switch-hitting Swisher racked up 25.0 fWAR and hit a Santana-like .256/.361/.467, adding a .211 ISO and solid walk and strikeout rates (13.3 percent and 21.1 percent, respectively). Of course, the Swisher experiment failed miserably in Cleveland, which is a reminder that even free agents with seemingly safe skillsets can rapidly decline.

Although the Swisher signing came almost a half-decade ago, something in the vicinity of his contract still looks like a fair benchmark for Santana’s next deal. While the Indians, Red Sox, Mariners and Angels are among a few potential fits, it’s worth noting that most teams were averse to spending big on first base/DH types a year ago. The leaguewide reluctance to splurge on those positions played a part in the Indians unexpectedly reeling in Encarnacion for a three-year, $65MM guarantee, and if it carries into this winter, it might enable them to re-up Santana at a reasonable rate. Further, it probably won’t help Santana’s cause that fellow first base options Eric Hosmer, Logan Morrison, Yonder Alonso, Lucas Duda and teammate Jay Bruce will join him in free agency after quality seasons of their own.

Hosmer and Santana are the class of the group and the only two who figure to garner qualifying offers, which could also drive down their appeal on the market. But if Santana rejects a $17.4MM qualifying offer from the Tribe and manages to land a guarantee of at least $50MM from another team, the Indians would be entitled to a compensatory pick after the first round because they’re a revenue-sharing recipient. So, while losing Santana would be a tough blow for Cleveland, at least there’s a chance the franchise would get a nice consolation prize in return.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Antonetti, Chernoff, Francona Discuss Indians’ Offseason

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The Indians were obviously disappointed by the way things ended this year, as the club was knocked out with three-straight ALDS losses. President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti, GM Mike Chernoff, and skipper Terry Francona discussed the state of affairs heading into the offseason in a media session, as MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian reports.

Broadly, Antonetti suggested that he thinks the organization’s processes remain sound. He also cited strong performance by the roster in all three major facets of the game, while emphasizing a commitment to continue “look[ing] to get better.”

In terms of how much cash the Indians will have to work with, that evidently isn’t yet known. Unsurprisingly, though, there’s no inkling that the organization will do anything other than continue to try to win with the current core.

The group of organizational leaders discussed a variety of players and situations in the lengthy dialogue, which is well forth a full read at the above link. There’s ongoing interest in bringing back Carlos Santana, though Antonetti was non-committal on how that would progress. He did suggest that Santana could be considered for a qualifying offer, which has been set at $17.4MM. Who’s on first if he departs? Per Antonetti, the team has internal options, plus “there’s a litany of guys on the trade and free-agent market that we’ll explore.”

Jay Bruce proved a big presence for the club after his mid-season acquisition, but he’ll hit the open market as well. Chernoff expressed satisfaction with Bruce’s performance and noted there is some “mutual interest,” though it certainly seems that both sides will also explore their alternatives as well. Francona offered high praise for pending free agent reliever Bryan Shaw for his steadiness and constant readiness to enter the game. Given that, it seems possible to imagine a return, though that wasn’t addressed directly. Antonetti did say the team will “absolutely” consider re-signing Austin Jackson, who he credited for a strong bounceback year.

A few other players could present interesting questions. Somewhat notably, Antonetti said it was a “significant decision” whether to exercise Michael Brantley’s $11MM option. While he credited Brantley’s work ethic, he noted that “just getting healthy” remains a priority for the oft-injured outfielder. Likewise, there’s some uncertainty surrounding Jason Kipnis, who is under contract but doesn’t have a clear position. The versatility is a good thing, says Antonetti, but the organization also needs to consider “what opportunities are out there externally for us” in all regards before deciding how it will line up its roster. Yandy Diaz is another versatile asset, Chernoff notes, though Francona suggested he hopes to give the youngster a single position to focus on — indicating he may best be suited to the hot corner.

Also, Francona (who will, as expected, remain in his position) fielded some questions on the team’s postseason performance. In particular, he emphasized that there’s no reason to believe at present that Corey Kluber — who faltered in Game 5 and has dealt with arm slot difficulties — is anything other than healthy. Francona also noted that he has never before been so physically drained by a baseball season, saying that he intends to work on his own conditioning over the offseason. You’ll want to check out the link for more on that and other topics of discussion.

Cafardo’s Latest: J.D., Red Sox, Mariners, Stanton, Cubs, Braves

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It “would appear” the Red Sox will be involved in the chase for Diamondbacks outfielder J.D. Martinez if he hits free agency in the offseason, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. As Cafardo points out, there’s a connection between Red Sox president Dave Dombrowski and Martinez, whom the former plucked off the scrapheap when he was Detroit’s general manager in 2014. Now one of the premier hitters in the game, Martinez would provide some much-needed punch to a Red Sox club that’s lacking in the power department, though it’s unclear where he’d play in Boston. On paper, the Red Sox look set in the outfield for the next few years with Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and Jackie Bradley Jr. in the fold.

More rumblings from Cafardo:

  • Indians first baseman/designated hitter Carlos Santana is another free agent-to-be who’s likely to land on the Red Sox’s radar, per Cafardo, who also names the Mariners as a probable suitor. Considering their positions, the switch-hitting Santana would seem to be a more natural fit than Martinez for Boston, which has gotten subpar production at first from impending free agent Mitch Moreland this year. Meanwhile, Mariners first basemen ranked last in the majors in fWAR (minus-0.7) during the regular season. Their top option, Yonder Alonso, could depart in free agency, which may lead to a Santana pursuit.
  • The Cubs could be a team to watch if the Marlins shop right fielder Giancarlo Stanton in the offseason, Cafardo suggests. It’s unclear whether the Cubs would have interest in the potential NL MVP, who’s due $295MM through 2028 (if he doesn’t opt out of his contract after 2020), but they have plenty of players the Marlins “would love” to acquire, notes Cafardo.
  • Royals GM Dayton Moore will only head to Atlanta if the Braves give him complete control, according to Cafardo. That jibes with a previous report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale and suggests that president John Hart would have to exit for a Moore-Braves union to come to fruition. Hart isn’t planning on leaving, however, Cafardo reports. Two members of the Nationals’ front office – assistant GM Doug Harris and the previously reported Dan Jennings – as well as ex-Red Sox GM Ben Cherington (now in Toronto) are on Hart’s radar as he seeks a replacement for John Coppolella, Cafardo relays.
  • Yomiuri Giants right-hander Miles Mikolas is eyeing a return to the majors, and if he does opt out of his contract in Japan, it appears he’ll draw plenty of big league interest. Fourteen major league teams scouted Mikolas’ most recent starts, and there’s a belief among some that he could be a capable mid-rotation starter if he comes back, according to Cafardo. Mikolas, 29, logged 37 appearances (10 starts) with the Padres and Rangers from 2012-14 and recorded a 5.32 ERA, 6.1 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9. He has been stellar with Yomiuri since 2015, though, with a 2.18 ERA, 8.0 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 across 62 starts.
  • The Tigers decided before the season ended to part with manager Brad Ausmus, but he told Cafardo that he wouldn’t have returned “even if they had offered me a three-year deal.” Ausmus didn’t believe he was the right match for a Detroit team in the initial stages of a rebuild. On potentially managing someplace else, he said, “I’d have to study the situation and see if it was the right fit for me.”

AL Central Notes: Gibson, Santana, Kipnis, Abreu, Merrifield

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Though right-hander Kyle Gibson at one point looked like a clear non-tender candidate for the Twins this offseason, his revitalized performance in the season’s second half makes it look far likelier that he’ll return. The 29-year-old former first-rounder limped to a ghastly 6.29 ERA with 5.9 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 and a 51.1 percent ground-ball rate through the season’s first half and was even optioned to Triple-A Rochester back in May. However, he’s logged a brilliant 2.83 ERA with 7.3 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 50.6 percent grounder rate in 54 innings across his past nine outings.

Asked by 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson on his latest podcast if Gibson would be tendered a contract this winter (audio link, with Levine joining around the 27-minute mark and discussing Gibson at 37 minutes), Levine replied: “Starting pitching — and quality starting pitching — is at a premium. … Depth is tantamount. We are aspirational of being a playoff-relevant team moving forward. Those types of teams need to have a wealth of starting pitching options, and I think Kyle Gibson has established himself as very much a part of that equation moving forward for the Minnesota Twins.” Gibson is earning $2.9MM in 2017, and while there’s still of course time for things to change, it sounds like he’ll be retained and earn a slight raise on that figure for the 2018 campaign.

More from the AL Central…

  • Indians slugger Carlos Santana admits to Zack Meisel of The Athletic that he put a significant amount of pressure on himself early this season as he entered a contract year. Santana struggled badly through the first 10 weeks or so of the 2017 campaign, but he credits first-year teammate Edwin Encarnacion — who had a tumultuous free-agent experience himself last winter — for getting his mind into a better place and turning his season around at the plate. “He told me to keep playing baseball and enjoy the (season) and play hard every day and don’t think about it,” says Santana. “He is a good influence for me and my mind.” Meisel notes that Santana hopes to remain in Cleveland — FanRag’s Jon Heyman wrote the same yesterday, as he has at various points this year — though the Indians will have some tough roster decisions to make with relatively limited finances. (A second deep playoff run, of course, wouldn’t hurt their financial outlook.)
  • Jason Kipnis is expected to start in center field for the Indians as soon as this Sunday, per Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Bradley Zimmer’s season-ending injury created an opening, and it was reported earlier this week that Kipnis would get a look there in his place. A center fielder in his college days, Kipnis isn’t exactly unfamiliar with the position, though it’s been seven years since Cleveland moved him to second base. Manager Terry Francona tells Hoynes that the training staff has to sign off on the decision still, though he adds that it’d be a surprise if they didn’t, given how healthy Kipnis has looked recently as he nears the end of his rehab from a hamstring injury.
  • Jose Abreu has made it clear that he hopes to remain with the White Sox even amid the team’s rebuild, writes MLB.com’s Phil Rogers. Chicago values his leadership and productive bat, Rogers notes, and he wonders if the team would make a four- or five-year offer to Abreu to keep him around this offseason. There’s no indication that there have been any actual extension negotiations between the two sides, though Rogers suggests that both Abreu and Avisail Garcia could make sense as longer-term pieces in Chicago.
  • Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star took an excellent look at the remarkable late blooming of Royals second baseman Whit Merrifield. As Dodd points out, Merrifield is one of just seven players in the past 50 years to debut after his 27th birthday and compile five wins above replacement in his first two seasons. The others on that list were all established stars in other countries before coming to the United States (e.g. Ichiro Suzuki, Jose Abreu, Hideki Matsui). Dodd tracks Merrifield’s minor league career, noting that he was passed on entirely in the Rule 5 Draft along the way. It’s a must-read column that is rife with quotes from GM Dayton Moore, Merrifield’s coaches from his amateur days, several of Merrifield’s teammates and, of course, Merrifield himself. Now 28 years old, Merrifield has broken out with a .285/.324/.463 batting line, 17 homers, 29 steals and quality defense at second base — likely cementing himself in the Royals’ lineup for the 2018 season and beyond.

Olney’s Latest: Darvish, Gray, Marlins, Indians

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There’s a belief among some rival evaluators that the Rangers will trade ace Yu Darvish by the July 31 deadline if they don’t believe they’ll be able to re-sign the impending free agent, reports Buster Olney of ESPN.com. With Texas unsure of whether it’ll be able to retain Darvish long term, there’s at least one starter-needy team waiting to make a move until it sees whether the Rangers shop him. Consequently, the possibility of a Darvish trade is affecting the market for starters and “muddying the waters” for the AL West rival Athletics in their quest to deal Sonny Gray, writes Olney.

  • Given that the Marlins’ ownership situation is in limbo, their baseball department isn’t in proper position to weigh offers for outfielders Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich, according to Olney. Moving either could make the Marlins more appealing to potential bidders because their contracts factor into the franchise’s heavy debt, though Olney notes that trading a superstar like Stanton might sabotage the rebranding effort of the next owner. And if Jeffrey Loria’s successor signs off on a Stanton trade, the team’s fan base could see it as a typical Marlins cost-cutting maneuver.
  • First baseman Carlos Santana’s down season may help explain the Indians’ interest in slugging outfielders J.D. Martinez and Jay Bruce, suggests Olney. The Tribe missed out on acquiring Martinez, whom the Tigers sent to the Diamondbacks this week, but the Mets’ Bruce remains a prime trade candidate. It’s unclear whether Bruce would play first for the Indians, who have seen Santana slump to a .238/.335/.406 batting line in 397 plate appearances during a contract year. Cleveland could acquire a natural first baseman instead, with Olney pointing out that Texas’ Mike Napoli (a former Indian) and Oakland’s Yonder Alonso may end up elsewhere.
  • It’s a buyers’ market this year as the deadline approaches, so a successful return for sellers could depend more on how much salary they shed than the quality of prospects they acquire, per Olney. As an example, Olney points to the trade Miami and Seattle made this week. The Marlins received four prospects for reliever David Phelps and got rid of his $4.6MM salary in the process, but only one of those minor leaguers (outfielder Brayan Hernandez) looks particularly promising. The quantity of prospects the Marlins picked up isn’t impressing rival evaluators, as some of them believe landing four players was done to make the package look better than it actually is.

Heyman’s Latest: Betts, Santana, Rays, Bautista, Braves, Arrieta, Holland

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The Red Sox looked into a long-term extension with Mookie Betts last winter, but both Betts and Xander Bogaerts are comfortable in year-to-year deals for now, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports.  Betts is already making a nice sum in endorsement deals, so it perhaps isn’t surprising that he (and Bogaerts) are in no rush to pursue a multi-year contract.  Bogaerts was arbitration-eligible for the first time last winter and is earning $4.5MM for 2017, while Betts will get his first run through the arb process this coming offseason, so while the price tags for both young stars will rise considerably, the Sox are still getting an overall bargain.

Here’s more from Heyman’s notes about the American League and National League from earlier this week…

  • There still haven’t been any talks about an extension between Carlos Santana and the Indians.  One executive believes Santana can land four years and $60MM in free agency this winter.
  • The Rays aren’t looking to sell, as they have a winning record and are in the thick of the AL East and wild card races.  Tampa Bay has been constantly cited as a potential seller given their financial limitations, with pending free agent Alex Cobb reportedly a candidate to switch teams.  Still, the Rays’ rotation has been thinned by Blake Snell’s demotion to the minors and Matt Andriese’s hip injury, so the club could hold off on any pitching decisions until closer to the deadline.
  • The Rays made a “creative” offer to Jose Bautista last winter that could have become a three-year deal if all options had been exercised.  The Rays were one of relatively few teams that were linked to Bautista (Heyman also mentions the Indians had interest) this winter, and ultimately, the slugger chose to stay in Toronto for more guaranteed money.  Bautista is earning $18MM this season, with a $17MM mutual option (with a $500K buyout) for 2018 and a $20MM club option for 2019 that can vest based on games played.
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman is in his last year under contract but the team will give him an extension if he wishes.  The same is also true of manager Joe Girardi.  The Yankees generally wait until after the season to explore new deals for management, though with the team performing so well, Cashman and Girardi both seem very likely to remain in their current positions.
  • The Braves are expected to look into trades for pending free agents such as Jaime Garcia and Brandon Phillips.  Both players are performing well, with Phillips on pace for his best overall offensive season since 2011 and Garcia bouncing back ERA-wise (even if his peripherals are somewhat middling) after a disappointing 2016 season.
  • Speaking of the Braves’ Garcia, he has hired Michael Moye as his agent.  In another representation change, White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia hired Gene Mato in April.  For more on who represents who in the baseball world, be sure to check out MLBTR’s Agency Database.
  • A rival executive believes Jake Arrieta will get “at least five years” in free agency this winter despite a shaky performance thus far in 2017.  Arrieta’s 4.64 ERA over 77 2/3 IP could be in part due to some bad luck (a .319 BABIP, 65.8% strand rate and a spike in his home run rate), though his velocity and ground-ball rates are both down from last season and he is posting his highest hard-hit ball rate since 2010.  A sixth guaranteed year could be possible if Arrieta can so easily obtain five years, Heyman reasons, though given the Cubs ace’s struggles and his age (32 next Opening Day), I have my doubts.
  • Greg Holland’s outstanding comeback season with the Rockies could put him in line for a free agent deal similar to Mark Melancon’s four-year, $62MM contract with the Giants from last offseason.  Scott Boras, Holland’s agent, is aiming even higher, reportedly looking for a deal in the range of the record-setting (for relievers) contracts landed by Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen.
  • One Nationals source says the team thinks the Dodgers could be Washington’s biggest competition for Bryce Harper when the star outfielder reaches free agency after the 2018 season.  Harper has seemingly been linked to the Yankees for years, though as Heyman notes, Aaron Judge’s emergence in right field could mean that New York instead pursues Manny Machado first among the star-studded 2018-19 free agent class before looking into Harper.  Then again, if the Yankees are able to “get below the [luxury tax] threshold, there’s no telling what they may try to do” that winter, given how their tax penalty clock will be reset just as multiple superstar players will hit the open market.

Heyman’s Latest: Royals, Marlins, Tribe, Tigers, Mets, Yanks, Astros

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With the trade deadline drawing nearer, FanRag’s Jon Heyman lists 70 players who could end up on the block over the next two months. Heyman ranks the players in order of name value and includes the likes of Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, Josh Donaldson and Ryan Braun near the top of the list. Check out the full piece for an in-depth look at which stars and role players might switch uniforms this summer.

Now the latest from Heyman’s American League and National League notes columns:

  • Prior to the season, Royals impending free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer shot down a report that he was seeking a 10-year deal. But there’s still a belief within the organization that he will request something close to a decadelong pact in the coming months, per Heyman, who adds that Hosmer is the soon-to-be free agent the Royals most want to keep. However, Kansas City hasn’t made a serious offer to Hosmer on account of what could be a lofty asking price, and the team expects the 27-year-old to reach free agency. Fellow longtime Royals Mike Moustakas (third base), Lorenzo Cain (center field) and Alcides Escobar (shortstop) are also likely to hit the market in the offseason. Moustakas is the Royals’ biggest priority after Hosmer, suggests Heyman, while they seem resigned to the idea that Cain will find a larger payday elsewhere. Escobar, the weakest player of the four, could re-sign if the price is right. At one point, he was seeking $10MM per year, but his cost has come down thanks to his dreadful offensive start (.174/.203/.228 in 196 plate appearances). Meanwhile, right-hander Ian Kennedy probably won’t opt out of the remaining three years and $49MM left on his contract, Heyman writes.
  • Alex Rodriguez could still factor into the Marlins’ next ownership group if the faction including Tagg Romney, Tom Glavine and Dave Stewart lands the franchise. Given A-Rod’s controversial past, the Romney team is keeping him “at arm’s length” for now; even if they weren’t, Rodriguez isn’t allowed to be part of an ownership group as long as he’s still collecting a salary from the Yankees. The 41-year-old’s contract with the Bombers expires at season’s end. His former teammate Derek Jeter, who’s vying with Jeb Bush and against Romney & Co. to purchase the Marlins, isn’t planning to invest much money, says Heyman. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported Saturday that Bush and Jeter are leading the race to acquire the franchise.
  • Heyman reported in April that the Indians would look to extend first baseman/designated hitter Carlos Santana, but discussions between the two sides still haven’t taken place. They might not occur, either, as Heyman relays that Santana is likely to hit free agency at season’s end. At .219/.321/.390 in 215 PAs, the 31-year-old hasn’t carried his typically above-average production into this season so far, but he continues to exhibit quality plate discipline with 27 walks against 31 strikeouts. Santana’s walk rate has dropped in each season since 2014, however, and is now at a career-low 12.6 percent.
  • When the offseason rolls around, odds are that Tigers left fielder Justin Upton will not opt out of the remaining four years and $88MM left on his deal, reports Heyman. “Not happening,” one rival general manager said of a potential opt-out. Upton hasn’t lived up to his lucrative contract in his year-plus in Detroit, putting him on track to take the bird-in-the-hand approach.
  • It appears first baseman Lucas Duda is in his final season with the Mets, as Heyman implies that he’s primed to sign elsewhere over the winter. The 31-year-old power hitter has been among the Mets’ top players this season, having slashed .267/.406/.570 with six home runs in 106 PAs, but they do have a well-regarded youngster behind him in Dominic Smith. Baseball America sees Smith, 21, as the game’s 65th-best prospect.
  • Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez is making $557,900 this year, according to Heyman, who reported in March that the backstop had agreed to a salary worth more than the minimum of $535K.
  • Add the Astros to the list of teams interested in Cuban shortstop prospect Jose Israel Garcia, who recently became a free agent. The Astros have already exceeded their pool allotment for the 2016-17 international free agent class, which could indicate that they’re looking to sign the 19-year-old Garcia before the period ends June 15.
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