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AL Notes: Orioles, A’s, Davis, Tribe, BoSox

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Things aren’t looking good for the Orioles, who are off to a 7-19 start and stuck in a division with at least two potential World Series contenders in the Red Sox and Yankees. Nevertheless, “it’s a little early” to tear things down, according to general manager Dan Duquette (via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). “We’ll probably give it a little bit more time. Usually, Memorial Day is the marker to evaluate a ballclub and see where you’re at and see where you want to go,” Duquette continued. “Other clubs have had the same time to evaluate their ballclub and see what they need. So I think that’s probably a good marker.” Assuming the Orioles don’t return to relevance in the next month, they could have the hottest trade commodity of the summer in superstar shortstop Manny Machado, who has been tremendous this year, and other possible trade candidates such as free agents-to-be Adam Jones, Brad Brach and Zach Britton.

More on a few of Baltimore’s fellow AL clubs…

  • The Athletics are reportedly discussing a one-year extension with slugger Khris Davis, who’d welcome the opportunity to stay in Oakland, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle relays. “I want to be an Oakland Athletic,” Davis said. “I think I fit in well here. I like the organization, I like the coaching staff, I like my teammates.” Interestingly, Slusser suggests there’s at least a small chance that the low-payroll Athletics could designate Davis for assignment next offseason if he hasn’t agreed to an extension and they fear his arbitration award will be too high. That would be an eye-opening move by Oakland, for which Davis has slashed .247/.322/.525 (125 wRC+) with a major league-high 92 home runs in 1,381 PAs since joining the team prior to 2016. The 30-year-old Davis is making $10.5MM this season and, as Slusser notes, could wind up at $15MM or more in 2019 – his final arb campaign.
  • The Indians tried to retain first baseman Carlos Santana with a three-year offer in the $40MM range before he joined the Phillies on a three-year, $60MM deal in the offseason, Terry Pluto of cleveland.com reports. The Indians ultimately replaced Santana with Yonder Alonso, who landed a two-year, $16MM pact, after considering fellow free agents Lucas Duda and Logan Morrison, per Pluto. The most productive member of that group this season has been Alonso, who has batted .239/.292/.534 (119 wRC+) with eight home runs in his first 96 plate trips as an Indian.
  • Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts is day-to-day after leaving their game against the Rays on Saturday with right hamstring tightness, according to Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald. Betts has been among the best players in the game in the early going this year, having slashed a ridiculous .344/.439/.733 (208 wRC+) with eight HRs in 107 PAs. Meanwhile, teammate and knuckleballer Steven Wright began serving his 15-game suspension for violating the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy, Ian Browne of MLB.com was among those to report. Wright opened the year on the disabled list after undergoing a platelet-rich plasma injection in his surgically repaired left knee, thus preventing him from serving the ban. Wright, who made a Triple-A rehab start Friday, will be eligible to return to the majors May 14. It’s unclear whether he’ll slot back into Boston’s rotation, though, given that it already has a full complement of arms with Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez and Drew Pomeranz.

AL Notes: Machado, Yanks, Tribe, Salazar, C. Santana, Rangers, Cashner

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Orioles infielder Manny Machado “wants to be a Yankee and the feeling is mutual,” Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes. The Yankees were among the teams that tried to trade for Machado over the winter, so it’s no surprise that they’re continuing to eye him a year before he hits free agency. Regarding offseason trade rumors, Machado said, “Thank God nothing went down and I was able to come back, and see my guys that I’ve been with for seven years.” Although the 25-year-old is content to be an Oriole for now, it seems highly unlikely he’ll remain with them past this year, considering the massive contract he’d land on the open market. And while the longtime third baseman plans to spend the rest of his career at shortstop, where New York has a quality starter in Didi Gregorius, the Yankees would find spots for both of them, Nightengale suggests.

More from the American League…

  • The Indians announced Friday that right-hander Danny Salazar “experienced an onset of right shoulder rotator cuff inflammation” last month during his offseason throwing program. The 28-year-old is “a couple weeks” behind the rest of the pitchers in Indians camp, per the announcement, though he has at least resumed throwing. It certainly doesn’t appear as if Salazar is presently dealing with a major injury, but the shoulder trouble isn’t entirely insignificant. Salazar missed roughly six weeks of the 2017 season due to shoulder troubles, and he has a history of right elbow issues as well. He’s also seen his name pop up in occasional trade speculation, most frequently being linked to the Brewers, though one would imagine that ongoing shoulder issues would temper some of the interest that other clubs may have in Salazar.There’s not yet any indication that Opening Day would be in jeopardy for Salazar, whom the Indians have penciled into a rotation spot alongside Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer. Josh Tomlin and Mike Clevinger are both on hand as options for the fifth spot. Injuries limited Salazar to just 103 innings last season, during which time he posted a 4.28 ERA with a gaudy 12.7 K/9 mark against 3.8 BB/9.
  • Before he joined the Phillies on a three-year, $60MM contract in November, longtime Indians first baseman Carlos Santana proposed a five-year, $75MM deal to Cleveland, the player told Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com. However, “the Tribe was never seriously engaged with him at all this winter,” Castrovince tweets. Shortly after Santana left the Indians, they added replacement Yonder Alonso on a much cheaper pact (two years, $16MM).
  • Texas had interest in re-signing Andrew Cashner before he accepted Baltimore’s two-year, $16MM guarantee Thursday, Rangers general manager Jon Daniels confirmed to TR Sullivan of MLB.com. However, not only did the Orioles make Cashner a better offer, but it seems he wouldn’t have been a lock to remain a starter with the Rangers. “We talked to him and gave him a range of what we were thinking,” Daniels said. “He got a better deal. We even asked him if he would pitch in the bullpen, but he got a commitment to start, a multi-year deal, a good deal from Baltimore.” In 2017, his only year with the Rangers, Cashner paced their starters in ERA (3.40) and finished second in innings (166 2/3), though his success came in spite of a league-worst K/BB ratio (1.34).

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Cafardo’s Latest: Machado, Red Sox, Yankees, Osuna

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A few AL East rumblings from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe:

  • The Red Sox and Yankees remain interested in Orioles third baseman/shortstop Manny Machado, though neither team has “moved the needle” in talks with the O’s, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports. Baltimore is reportedly done actively shopping Machado, as it doesn’t believe any other club has put forth a suitable offer for the superstar as he prepares for a contract year. Given that both the Red Sox and Yankees are in the Orioles’ division, it figures to be especially difficult for either to persuade the Orioles to move Machado. The left side of Boston’s infield looks to be in fine shape anyway with Rafael Devers at third and Xander Bogaerts at short. The Yankees, on the other hand, don’t have an obvious third base solution to place next to shortstop Didi Gregorius.
  • Blue Jays closer Roberto Osuna has garnered plenty of trade inquiries this winter, according to Cafardo. However, there’s no indication the Jays are considering moving the proven Osuna, who’s still young (23 in February) and set to play his first of three potential arbitration years in 2018. The right-hander turned in his third straight excellent year last season, tossing 64 innings of 3.38 ERA ball with career-best strikeout (11.67 K/9), walk (1.27 BB/9) and groundball (48 percent) rates.
  • While Boston had interest in first baseman Carlos Santana before he joined the Phillies, the Red Sox never actually made him an offer, per Cafardo. Santana secured a three-year, $60MM guarantee, easily outdoing the two-year, $13MM pact the Sox handed newly re-signed first baseman Mitch Moreland this week.

Indians Notes: Santana, Spending, Alonso, Kipnis

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Indians GM Chris Antonetti told reporters today that the club was in on Carlos Santana until the very end (hat tip to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com). It seemed that Santana’s reps kept the Tribe informed through the entirety of Santana’s free agency, but in the end, things just didn’t work out for Cleveland. This news comes as another sign that Santana wanted to remain with the Indians if possible; the first baseman also wrote an emotional goodbye letter to Tribe fans in which he stated, “I cried once it sunk in that I would no longer be suiting up for and living in the City of Cleveland.” Ultimately, he signed a three-year, $60MM contract with the Phillies. Santana came to Cleveland in the Casey Blake trade prior to the 2008 trade deadline. Though the Dominican Republic native came up as a catcher through the minors, his most recent years have been spent as a first baseman. He hit .249/.365/.449 during his time with the Indians, and provided them with 23 fWAR. The club will now hope that new signee Yonder Alonso can replace his fantastic patience in their lineup.

More from the Indians’ camp on the day the Alonso signing was announced…

  • Bastian also tweeted some words from Antonetti about the club’s spending plans for the remainder of the offseason. It seems as though the Alonso signing may be the Tribe’s most significant of the winter, though they’ll reportedly continue to explore their options. “We’ll continue to be active,” the Indians GM told reporters. “We had a certain amount of flexibility heading into the offseason that we had to use judicially, and this will represent the vast bulk of that flexibility. The cost of retaining the nucleus of our team is more expensive.” Indeed, the Indians have a number of expensive arbitration-eligible players. MLBTR projects that Trevor Bauer, Lonnie Chisenhall, Danny Salazar and Cody Allen alone will cost the club nearly $30MM, and there are still smaller salaries to account for within their arb-eligible group.
  • Antonetti isn’t worried about Alonso’s ability to sustain a high level of production, Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal tweets. The Indians GM cites his control of the strike zone and escalating average exit velocity across the past three seasons as evidence of a “purposeful adjustment”. It’s worth noting that there’s a healthy amount of skepticism in the industry over whether the former top prospect’s .266/.365/.501 season was a true breakout or a career year. As Evan Davis of FanRag Sports writes in a detailed piece, there’s reason to believe certain adjustments could yield sustainable results over the long-term, including a 9.1-degree spike in average launch angle that led to a .385 xwOBA in the season’s first half. However, Davis also points out that his second half was far more pedestrian; Alonso’s xwOBA and wRC+ both plummeted to levels more indicative of his previous self.
  • One of the remaining items on Antonetti’s docket is to speak with Jason Kipnis about a position plan, Bastian says in yet another tweet. Antonetti told reporters that it’s possible Kipnis could be a contingency plan for Michael Brantley in left field if the two-time All-Star isn’t ready for Opening Day. As Anthony DiComo of MLB.com notes, Antonetti’s words make it seem all the more likely that Kipnis will open the 2018 season in an Indians uniform.

Phillies Sign Carlos Santana

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DECEMBER 20: The Phillies have announced the deal. Sanchez has the full breakdown (via Twitter): Santana receives a $10MM signing bonus, with annual salaries of $15MM, $17MM, and $17.5MM. The math would suggest that there’s a $500K buyout on the option year.

DECEMBER 15, 1:28pm: Santana’s contract is still pending a physical, tweets Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Salisbury also tweets that Hoskins will indeed play a significant amount of left field, freeing up the possibility of the trade of an outfielder. Aaron Altherr and Nick Williams had been slotted in as the Phillies’ corner outfielders, with Odubel Herrera lined up as the center fielder.

12:52pm: Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com reports that Santana’s deal also comes with a $17.5MM club option for a fourth season (Twitter link).

12:32pm: In a surprising move, the Phillies have agreed to a deal with first baseman Carlos Santana, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links). It’s a hefty three-year, $60MM contract, according to Heyman. Santana is represented by Octagon.

Carlos Santana | Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Philadelphia has been linked to Santana on multiple occasions, though it’s long seemed like a curious fit given the emergence of Rhys Hoskins as the presumptive starter at first base. However, the Phils deployed Hoskins in left field last season, and he turned in passable results in a small sample of 237 innings there (-1 Defensive Runs Saved, scratch defense per Ultimate Zone Rating).

The Phillies could opt to continue utilizing Hoskins in the outfield in order to get Santana’s bat into the lineup. Santana does have 225 innings of experience at third base, though he received poor defensive ratings there, and his superlative glovework at first base is a significant component in his value. Santana, of course, broke into the Majors as a catcher but hasn’t suited up behind the dish since the 2014 season and hasn’t played more than 100 innings there since 2013, owing in part due to concussion issues.

[Related: Updated Philadelphia Phillies depth chart]

Santana jumps out as the most significant position player to come off the board and does so in impressive fashion, matching the dollars that his now-former teammate, Edwin Encarnacion, received with the Indians just one offseason ago. Santana landed a considerably stronger average annual value than many pundits predicted — MLBTR pegged him at three years and $45MM in total on our Top 50 free agent list — though the Phillies likely had to pay a premium to convince a top-tier free agent to sign with a club that has spent the past several seasons rebuilding.

The 31-year-old Santana (32 in April) should play no small part in helping the Phils further their efforts to return to contention in the National League East, though. He’s coming off a strong .259/.363/.455 batting line in 667 plate appearances last season and turned in a career year in 2016 when he hit .259/.366/.498 with 34 homers.

Overall, the switch-hitting Santana has turned in a .363 OBP in nearly 4600 plate appearances since establishing himself as a Major League regular back in 2011, averaging 153 games played and 24 homers per season along the way. One would think that a move to a much more hitter-friendly environment, Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park, should help to improve his power output as well (though his .196 ISO in that time is already plenty strong).

Because Santana rejected a one-year, $17.4MM qualifying offer from the Indians, he comes with draft compensation in the form of the Phillies’ second-highest draft pick — in this case, their second-round pick — and a $500K hit to their 2018-19 international bonus pool. The Phils will lose not only that second-round pick, but also the slot money that would’ve come along with it, thus noticeably shrinking next year’s draft pool.

The Indians, meanwhile, will secure a compensatory pick between the end of the first round and the start of Competitive Balance Round A due to the fact that Santana’s contract exceeded $50MM in total guarantees.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL Rumors: Rays, Archer, Longoria, Yanks, White Sox, Machado, Red Sox

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The Astros and Phillies have interest in Rays right-hander Chris Archer, joining a slew of previously reported clubs, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The Rays clearly wouldn’t have any trouble finding a taker for Archer, thanks to his track record, age (29) and team-friendly contract (four years, $34MM). Teammate and face of the franchise Evan Longoria, the Rays’ longtime third baseman, is three years older than Archer and costs far more (a guaranteed $86MM over a half-decade). But that doesn’t seem to be a prohibitive price tag, as the three-time All-Star is drawing some interest from the division-rival Yankees as well as the Giants, Mets and previously reported Cardinals, according to Topkin.

More on Tampa Bay and a few other teams:

  • The offer the White Sox made to the Orioles for third baseman/shortstop Manny Machado did not include second baseman Yoan Moncada or rightyMichael Kopech, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. It would’ve been a surprise to see the rebuilding White Sox consider parting with either player for only a year of control over Machado. The 22-year-old Moncada and Kopech, 21, were the crown jewels in the package they received last winter for Chris Sale, after all. Moncada, whom the White Sox promoted last July, will be their second baseman from the get-go next year. The flamethrowing Kopech reached Triple-A in 2017 and now ranks as MLB.com’s 10th-best prospect.
  • While righty Jake Odorizzi represents another Ray who could be in a different uniform in 2018, teams aren’t having an easy time prying him out of Tampa Bay. The Rays have let potential trade partners know they’ll have to “extend” for a shot at Odorizzi, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press tweets. Odorizzi, who will play his age-28 campaign in 2018, is under control via arbitration for two more seasons. He’s projected to earn a reasonable $6.5MM next year.
  • Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told Jen McCaffrey of MassLive.com and other reporters Saturday that the club had interest in Carlos Santana before he agreed to to a pact with Philadelphia on Friday. However, the Red Sox “weren’t necessarily prepared to go to the dollar amount that was there” for the first baseman, who landed a three-year, $60MM guarantee. And after suggesting at the Winter Meetings that offense-needy Boston would only add one big bat, Dombrowski doubled down on that Saturday, saying the team’s “focused on getting one person.”

Rangers, Padres, Rockies Join Indians, Others In Pursuit Of Carlos Santana

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TUESDAY, 7:42am: Santana and his representatives are weighing offers from several teams, Hoynes reports, though it isn’t certain if he is close to accepting a deal.

MONDAY, 5:04pm: The Padres have indeed discussed Santana, but “it seems they’re still focused on” Hosmer, according to Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link).

1:51pm: The Rockies are also showing some interest in Santana, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post tweets. Colorado has a clear opening at first base, though the team has indicated its top priorities lie elsewhere.

10:27am: Cleveland’s top extension offer to Santana was three years and $36MM, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets, and the organization would “likely go higher” now that he’s on the open market.

SUNDAY, 9:00pm: The Indians made Santana a contract offer, the Cleveland Plain Dealer’s Paul Hoynes reports.  While the offer wasn’t taken, the Tribe have been informed that they will get a chance to counter any offer Santana receives from another team that he considered acceptable.

6:32pm: Carlos Santana is already drawing quite a bit of interest this offseason, and Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer adds the Rangers and Padres to the list of other teams (including the Phillies, Red Sox, and Mariners) already linked to Santana on the rumor mill.

Texas is known to be focusing on adding pitching this winter, though the team’s offense also lacked some of the well-rounded attack of past years.  Santana would clearly be a big upgrade in the first base/DH hole left behind by free agent Mike Napoli, who struggled last year in a sub-replacement level season.  Santana’s arrival would bolster the Rangers’ lineup against the possible departure of Adrian Beltre after the 2018 season.

Installing Santana at first base would have a ripple effect throughout the Rangers’ lineup.  Joey Gallo would have to return to left field, with Nomar Mazara shifting to right and Shin-Soo Choo being limited to DH duties.  Top prospect Willie Calhoun had been mentioned as a possible candidate for regular DH or corner outfield duty, though Texas might want to give him a bit more seasoning rather than expect Calhoun to immediately contribute to a team that hopes to contend.

Previous reports seemed to downplay San Diego’s possible interest in Santana, though it could be that the Padres have since considered Santana for what seems to be an increasing desire to sign a first baseman.  The Padres have also had interest in Eric Hosmer, with the logic being that the 28-year-old Hosmer is young enough to still be productive in a few years when San Diego is theoretically finished with its rebuild.  Santana, by contrast, turns 32 in April, and while the slugger hasn’t shown many signs of slowing down, he wouldn’t have the luxury of the occasional DH rest day while playing for a National League team.

Adding a first baseman would necessitate shifting Wil Myers into a corner outfield role, though the Padres may see that as an acceptable tradeoff for adding offense.  The Padres finished at or near the bottom of most major offensive categories last year, so a proven above-average hitter like Santana (who hit .259/.363/.455 with 23 homers over 667 PA last year and has posted a 123 wRC+ over his career) would add some much-needed pop to the lineup.

Santana rejected the Indians’ qualifying offer, and thus the Rangers and Padres would each need to surrender some compensation to sign the first baseman.  Texas would give up their second-highest draft pick and $500K of international signing bonus money, while San Diego would only have to surrender its third-highest draft pick.

AL Notes: Mariners, Tigers, Castellanos, Yanks, Jays, Donaldson, Rays

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The Mariners’ spirited attempt to sign Shohei Ohtani ended in heartbreak when the Japanese ace/slugger signed with the division-rival Angels last week. Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto acknowledged that he was disappointed in the outcome when speaking about Ohtani’s decision Monday. He was gracious in defeat, though, telling Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times and other reporters that he’s “happy for” Ohtani and expects he’ll be “a great fit” in Anaheim.

With the Ohtani dream dead, the Mariners have been monitoring the free agent market for pitching, Dipoto revealed. “We have a sense that the market is starting to pick up. I feel like we are in a deal making zone,” he said (Twitter links here). Along with searching for pitching, Dipoto is looking to trade some of the international bonus pool money the Mariners acquired when they were trying to increase their chances to sign Ohtani, Greg Johns of MLB.com tweets. Dipoto also suggested that there won’t be anymore big additions to a Mariners position player group that just landed Dee Gordon. Instead, any new pickups are likely to come via waivers, minor league deals or the Rule 5 draft.

More from the American League:

  • The Tigers engaged in contract extension talks with outfielder/third baseman Nicholas Castellanos’ agent after the season, but they haven’t had any discussions since, general manager Al Avila told reporters Monday. It looks unlikely the two sides will reach an agreement, per Jason Beck of MLB.com (Twitter link). As things stand, the soon-to-be 26-year-old Castellanos is controllable for just two more seasons. The former top prospect will make a projected $7.6MM in arbitration in 2018, when he’ll try for a third straight above-average offensive showing. Castellanos, who slugged a career-best 26 home runs last season, has batted .277/.325/.493 with 44 HRs in 1,112 plate appearances since 2016.
  • The Yankees expressed interest in free agent Carlos Santana after Ohtani turned them down and before they acquired Giancarlo Stanton, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reports (Twitter link). Now, Stanton’s presence removes any need for the Yanks to add another hitter, meaning he won’t end up with them, as Davidoff notes.
  • Even without Stanton, New York finished 15 games ahead of division-rival Toronto in 2017. Nevertheless, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins iterated Monday that they’re aiming to rebound, not rebuild, next season. Atkins told reporters, including Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, that he’s focused on putting together the “best possible team.” That would likely mean retaining star third baseman Josh Donaldson as he enters a contract year, which the Jays seem inclined to do. “It’s hard to imagine making (the Jays) better without Josh,” Atkins noted (Twitter link).
  • On the other hand, the Stanton deal may hasten a rebuild for the Rays, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. The Rays would be wise to take that route, Topkin posits, thanks in part to the fact that New York and Boston are in their division. Additionally, the payroll-challenged club already looked primed to trade notable veterans even before the Yankees got Stanton. On the heels of a fourth straight sub-.500 season, the Rays will also lose righty Alex Cobb to free agency, which will make it all the more difficult for them to compete in the near term, Topkin points out.

Latest On Corner Infield Market

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There are quite a few moving pieces on the market for corner infielders, so it’s conceivable that things could go in any number of different directions. At this point, it’s not even clear when or where the first dominoes will fall. Here’s the latest:

  • Fresh off of a non-tender by the Braves, first baseman Matt Adams has drawn interest from a few organizations, according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com (via Twitter). Specifically, the Indians, Royals, and Nationals have all reached out to Adams’s representatives. While Cleveland and Kansas City could offer fairly significant roles to the left-handed hitter — who really is best utilized in a platoon capacity — the Nats unsurprisingly would consider him as a frequently used bench piece who might take some of the burden from Ryan Zimmerman. Atlanta was not able to find a taker for Adams before the tender deadline; he had projected to earn $4.6MM via arbitration, so it’d be surprising if he ended up receiving more than that on the open market. For the Indians, it seems, adding a player such as Adams would represent something of a “fallback,” as Crasnick terms it, if the team is unable to strike a new deal with Carlos Santana. MLBTR’s Kyle Downing just analyzed Santana’s free agent case and we have also rounded up the latest market chatter on one of the market’s top bats.
  • Having missed out on Giancarlo Stanton, the Cardinals are now scanning the rest of the market for offensive upgrades. Jon Heyman of Fan Rag looks at the team’s possible options, including free agents Eric Hosmer and J.D. Martinez. He notes that several upper-echelon third basemen might hold appeal on the trade market — which will come as little surprise to those that have followed the Cards’ trade rumblings for the last several months. Of course, it’s still unclear whether the Blue Jays (Josh Donaldson), Rays (Evan Longoria), or Orioles (Manny Machado) will make their stars available.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post tackles that subject, discussing the relative likelihood that any of those three will be shopped. And Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times addresses things from the Rays’ perspective, reporting that Longoria has not been given any indication from the organization about their plans. While he says he hopes to remain in Tampa Bay, he also acknowledges he could be “somewhere in limbo.” If a trade comes to pass, says Longoria, “I suppose my family and I will adjust.”
  • The top free agent third baseman, of course, is Mike Moustakas. His market is still taking shape, but the Angels have (as expected) engaged with his camp to some degree, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports (Twitter links). That said, there’s no indication of momentum. From an outside perspective, it also seems less likely that the Halos would line up on Moustakas after landing Shohei Ohtani. Even less likely is Logan Morrison, though Fletcher adds that he’s also still on the radar.
  • Hosmer and Martinez are conceivably also targets for the Red Sox, as are Santana and others. As Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes, the organization has engaged agent Scott Boras on both players; perhaps unsurprisingly, he also suggests that Boras is pitching Boston on signing the pair in a bold move to revamp its lineup. Interestingly, Cafardo also says that Hosmer’s former club, the Royals, once reached an internal assessment that Hosmer could swat forty long balls annually at Fenway. Of course, the notoriously heavy groundball hitter has never launched more than 25 in a given season (that’s a mark he reached in each of the last two campaigns).

Free Agent Profile: Carlos Santana

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Following his seventh-straight season of providing the Indians with at least 2 wins above replacement, Carlos Santana is a free agent. He’ll be looking to get paid for his consistency, batting eye and improved defense at first base.

Pros/Strengths

Santana’s signature strength is his fantastic eye at the plate. Since the beginning of the 2011 season (his first full season at the MLB level), no player in the American League has drawn more free passes. His 698 walks during that span lead second-place Jose Bautista by 44 and third-place Mike Trout by 118, while trailing only Joey Votto in all of baseball. Santana also carries elite contact ability: during the 2017 season, his 7.1% swinging strike rate ranked top 30 in the majors, while his 21.4% chase rate was within MLB’s top ten. Thanks to this skill set, Santana was one of just four players in baseball with a walk rate above 13% and a strikeout rate below 15% this past year. The others were Joey Votto, Anthony Rendon and Anthony Rizzo. There are dozens more statistics just like this one, but the point remains the same: Santana is one of the most patient players on the planet.

He can do more than simply take walks, though. Santana’s power is also well above average. He’s socked 168 bombs since the start of 2011; that puts him in baseball’s top 25 during that time period. In his seven full major league seasons, Santana has never hit fewer than 18 homers, and he’s hit as many as 34. While his career .445 slugging percentage and .196 ISO don’t leap off the page, those figures are certainly nothing to scoff at. In fact, that ISO is tied for the 51st-highest mark out of the 203 players who’ve accumulated at least 2,000 plate appearances since Santana’s career began. Make no mistake: Santana is a threat to hit the ball out of the park at any time.

In addition to his offensive skill set, Santana may well be one of the best defensive first basemen in the game. UZR/150 has always been bullish on his work, rating him as being between 4.6 and 5.3 runs above average per 150 games in each of the past three seasons. However, DRS hasn’t painted a pretty picture of his work in the past. In 2017, however, Santana graded out to 10 Defensive Runs Saved; nine full runs better than his previous career high at first.

Cons/Weaknesses

Although the longtime Cleveland Indian doesn’t have many glaring weaknesses, his true achilles heel lies in his batted ball profile. Although Santana is a switch-hitter, is tendency to pull the ball more than half the time makes him incredibly easy for opposing infields to shift against. Santana’s pull percentage has been greater than 50% in all but one season of his career; the remaining season was 2012, during which his pull rate was 48.1%. All told, Santana’s career pull rate is a whopping 52.9%. Since Santana came into the league, only Mark Teixiera and Chris Young have higher pull rates among hitters with at least 2000 plate appearances. Furthermore, Santana’s batting average on ground balls hit to the pull side of the infield has never been higher than .145 in any season of his career. Santana’s lack of offensive versatility has led to prolonged slumps throughout his career. Opposing teams can greatly improve their pitching performance against him by following a simple formula: pitch him inside, generate ground balls and deploy an extreme pull shift.

Other than his pull penchant, however, Santana doesn’t really have much in the way of weaknesses. One small criticism of his hitting ability is that he’s performed poorly against knuckle curveballs; Santana’s career weighted runs created against that particular pitch is -2.36, which ranks 222nd of 268 players during the course of his major league career. However, the pitch is so rare that it’s hard to imagine that will affect his value on the free agent market.

One could say that while Santana is an above average hitter, he’s merely average among first basemen. While his consistency is impressive, it’s not like he’s been consistently a stud. During his tenure as a first base/DH type, Santana has never ranked higher than ninth in fWAR among first basemen. In essence, he’s a great hitter, but not a spectacular hitter relative to his position on the field.

Background

The Los Angeles Dodgers originally signed Santana out of the Dominican Republic back in 2006. In 2008, the Indians acquired him in the Casey Blake trade.

Though he plays first base now, Santana’s major-league debut was as a catcher, a position he played in the majority of games until 2014. After a brief experiment at third base that year, Santana became a full-time first baseman/designated hitter and hasn’t been behind the plate for a single inning during the past three seasons. He’s never worn a major league uniform for any team but the Indians, but officially became a free agent when he rejected Cleveland’s qualifying offer earlier this winter.

Market

The fact that he’s limited to first base will take many NL teams out of the running for Santana, shortening his list of suitors. The crowded free agent first base market this year could further drive down his value; if that occurs, though, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs sees potential for Santana to rate as a notable bargain. The Indians have already made him a contract offer, while the Padres and Rangers have also shown interest. Some other potential suitors include the Red Sox, A’s and Rockies.

Contract

Though MLBTR initially predicted that Santana would sign a three-year, $45MM contract with the Indians, the two sides weren’t able to work out a deal before Santana rejected their qualifying offer. The initial market for him seems fairly strong, and with his relative youth so many teams already in the mix, the original prediction now appears to be on the low side. Though the presence of Eric Hosmer and Logan Morrison on the market could limit his earning power, I’m guessing Santana will get a four-year deal worth no less than $60MM.

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