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The Opener: Starters, Shortstops, Bellinger

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What sort of shopping is happening in MLB free agency on this Cyber Monday?

1. Is The Backend Starting Pitching Market About To Move?

This year’s free agent starting pitching market is headlined by aces Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon. But many teams already know they won’t be shopping in that aisle and don’t need to wait around to see where those guys sign. The White Sox made the first significant move of the lower tiers, grabbing Mike Clevinger on a one-year, $12MM deal this weekend. This was right around MLBTR’s prediction of one-year and $10MM. For the other teams looking to make this level of investment, will they push on to similar pitchers? Corey Kluber, Johnny Cueto, Wade Miley and Kyle Gibson would make sense as backup targets for the teams that missed on Clevinger and those pitchers could get increased interest in the near future. Noah Syndergaard returned from Tommy John in 2022 and was relatively effective, but with diminished velocity and results compared to before the surgery. Will he have to settle for another one-year deal like last year or did he show enough to push himself into a multi-year deal?

2. Will Any Of The “Big Four” Shortstops Sign Before The End Of The Year?

The rumors involving the “Big Four” shortstops have been flying lately, with various teams interested in Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. However, it’s unclear if any of them are particularly close to reaching a deal. Will there be any movement between now and the end of the year? One factor might be agent Scott Boras, who represents both Correa and Bogaerts, as well as Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Josh Bell, Taijuan Walker, J.D. Martinez, Cody Bellinger, Jurickson Profar, Joey Gallo and others. Boras has previously shown a willingness to wait until the New Year to find the best deals for his clients, but he surely can’t do that with all of them. As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes, “Boras has so many free-agent clients, he probably will want to start taking some off the board.” Does that mean Boras will start striking deals at the Winter Meetings that start on Sunday? Or maybe even before?

3. How High Will Cody Bellinger’s Salary Go?

Cody Bellinger has fallen on hard times in recent years, having below-average offensive seasons in both 2021 and 2022. However, his previous MVP-winning production pushed his arbitration salary up, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a salary of $18.1MM for 2023. The Dodgers weren’t willing to pay him at that level after his two lost seasons and presumably couldn’t find a willing trade partner either, leading to Bellinger’s non-tender a couple of weeks ago. The interest in Bellinger as a free agent has been robust, with Jon Heyman of The New York Post reporting last week that 11 teams are at the table. Despite Bellinger’s rough results in recent years, plenty of teams need help in center and there aren’t many great options. Though no team was willing to give up anything noteworthy in a trade in exchange for the ability to pay Bellinger close to $20MM, is there a team willing to pay him in that range when it only costs money?

Latest On Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts

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Shortstop Carlos Correa is one of the top free agent available and he is unsurprisingly drawing plenty of interest. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that eight teams are interested in his services, but the Twins are expected to “go hard” in their attempts to retain him.

Heyman doesn’t mention any teams by name other than the Twins, who are already known to be making a concerted effort to keep Correa in Minnesota. It was reported earlier this week that they have made multiple offers to him, with varying lengths between six and ten years, presumably with higher salaries on the shorter deals and lower salaries on the longer deals. In addition to the Twins, Correa has already been publicly linked in some way to the Giants, Dodgers and Cubs. Since Heyman says eight teams are involved, it appears there are four “mystery teams” at the table.

As to who those mystery teams are, we can only guess, though there would be some logical fits. Mariners’ president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has said the club is planning to pursue shortstops to play second base in deference to J.P. Crawford. The Phillies are known to be looking for a shortstop this winter. The Braves will need to replace Dansby Swanson if they can’t re-sign him but they might not have the financial ability to go after Correa. The Orioles have been speculated as a fit given that general manager Mike Elias was working for the Astros when Correa was drafted and developed, though they don’t have a track record that would suggest they’d give out the type of contract it would require to land him.

One surprising team that could be in the mix is the Padres. Heyman doesn’t directly connect the club to Correa but he does say they are considering the free agent shortstops. The Padres have been extremely aggressive in recent years and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller shouldn’t really be counted out on anyone, but it’s still unexpected to see the club connected to this market. The Friars got by without Fernando Tatis Jr. in 2022, who missed the first half of the season due to a wrist injury and the second half due to a suspension for a positive test for performance-enhancing drugs.

In his absence, Ha-Seong Kim stepped up and had an excellent season. He hit .251/.325/.383 for a wRC+ of 105 while stealing 12 bases and providing excellent defense. All of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average gave him positive grades, allowing him to produce 3.7 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. With Tatis set to return in 2023 once he serves the final 20 games of his suspension, it would seem the position is already crowded enough as it is. However, Heyman’s report indicates the club is open to the idea of moving Tatis to the outfield, something he’s dabbled with in the past, while bumping Kim into a utility role.

It had been previously reported that the club was considering an alignment of Kim at short, Tatis at second and Jake Cronenworth at first. It seems that this new plan would be somewhat similar but with Tatis going to the outfield, perhaps replacing Jurickson Profar, who is now a free agent, in left. Regardless of how it would eventually play out, Heyman lists Xander Bogaerts as their preferred option for this plan. Marino Pepén also connects the Padres to Bogaerts, though he says they are behind the Phillies and the Red Sox in the bidding.

Payroll might be a factor for the Friars, as Roster Resource currently pegs their payroll at $210MM and their competitive balance tax number at $230MM, just under the first CBT threshold of $233MM. The club has nudged over the CBT line in the past two years, but signing a marquee shortstop would surely mean blowing past the first threshold and flirting with the second, which is $253MM. As a third-time payor, the Padres are already facing a 50% tax on all spending over the first the first threshold plus a 12% surcharge on spending over the second. That means every dollar they go over $253MM would be taxed at a 62% rate. The club has continually surprised onlookers with their aggression in recent seasons, meaning it shouldn’t be completely ruled out. But it would be quite a noteworthy escalation, especially with the club connected to other big free agents like José Abreu and Kodai Senga.

As for the Giants, who have been connected to the free agent shortstops for some time, they will have to answer the Brandon Crawford question if they succeed in signing a new shortstop. He’s been with the club since being drafted back in 2008 and has been a mainstay at shortstop for them since 2011. He turns 36 in January, has one year remaining on his extension and is coming off a down year in 2022. He made multiple trips to the injured list and posted a batting line of .231/.308/.344, wRC+ of 87. DRS and UZR were down on his work in the field, but he did earn 7 OAA.

As to how the club would handle a new shortstop with Crawford on the roster, it seems that it would depend who the shortstop is. According to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, Crawford would move to third base if they signed Correa, but Trea Turner or Dansby Swanson would be installed at second base. That’s likely a reflection of the fact that Turner and Swanson have lesser throwing arms than the other two. According to the Statcast arm strength leaderboard among shortstops, Swanson comes 48th out of 50 while Turner is 26th. Crawford is a bit higher at 19 while Correa is at #6. Correa’s excellent arm strength arguably makes him a fit for third base, but his overall defense is superior to Crawford’s at this stage of their careers. Regardless of how sensible the arguments may be, it’s at least a bit surprising that the Giants are apparently willing to supplant Crawford at shortstop under the right conditions.

Twins Have Reportedly Made Multiple Offers To Carlos Correa

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Arguably the biggest question for the Twins this offseason is how they’ll address shortstop. Minnesota’s shocking Spring Training signing of Carlos Correa solved the position for the 2022 campaign, but it’s again up in the air after the two-time All-Star opted out of the final two years on his contract.

That Correa’s now back on the open market puts Minnesota in competition with the league for his services. Twins ownership and the front office has spoken about their desire to bring him back, although they’re up against traditionally bigger spenders. Unlike last offseason, when the former first overall pick settled for a three-year guarantee to secure the highest per-year salary for a free agent position player in MLB history, he’s expected to command a long-term deal this winter.

During a recent appearance on the Talk North podcast, LaVelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune suggested the Twins have put forth contract offers of varying lengths to Correa. Neal indicates Minnesota’s proposals range from six to ten years with differing average salaries in each. The shorter-term offers would surely feature higher annual payouts, with the comparatively lesser length reducing the team’s longer-term risk.

Financial terms of the proposals aren’t clear, but it’s notable Minnesota is ostensibly willing to make a long-term commitment to play at the top of the market. The Twins signed Joe Mauer to an eight-year, $184MM extension in March 2010 but have otherwise only reached or narrowly exceeded a nine-figure guarantee twice ($105.3MM for Correa and $100MM for Byron Buxton, both last offseason). A Correa deal of six-plus years would almost certainly set a new high-water mark for the organization, even if the contract contained one or more opt-out chances.

Correa is the #2 free agent of this winter in MLBTR’s estimation, predicted for a nine-year deal worth $288MM. Headed into his age-28 campaign, he’s still the youngest of the four top open market options at the position. Dansby Swanson is going into his age-29 season, while Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts will each spend most of next season at 30 years old. Correa narrowly led that group with a .467 slugging mark this past season, while Bogaerts finished first with a .377 on-base percentage. On a rate basis, Correa was the top offensive player by measure of wRC+, although a pair of minimal injured list stints for a finger contusion and a battle with COVID-19 kept him to 590 plate appearances.

While retaining Correa figures to be the Twins’ ideal course of action, Neal relays that Bogaerts would be Minnesota’s secondary target. Dan Hayes of the Athletic similarly suggested earlier this month the Twins were likely to pivot to the longtime Red Sox star if Correa were to land elsewhere. Boston has consistently maintained a desire to keep Bogaerts, while he’s also drawn some reported interest from the Phillies.

The Twins acquired Kyle Farmer from the Reds last week, at least mitigating the need to dip into the lower tiers of free agency if they come up empty on their pursuit of the top four shortstops. Farmer’s a competent defender coming off a .255/.315/.386 showing during his final season in Cincinnati. His presence raises the floor at the position, but he’s certainly capable of assuming a utility role off the bench if the Twins make an impact move.

Minnesota presently projects for a 2023 payroll around $98MM, per Roster Resource. They have just over $19MM in guaranteed commitments by 2024. Minnesota opened this past season with player spending a bit above $134MM, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. There’s pretty clear flexibility to make a significant investment at the shortstop position, although the front office will have to weigh that course of action against their desire to upgrade in the bullpen, behind the dish and in the corner outfield/designated hitter mix.

Braves Unlikely To Pursue Big Name Shortstops If Swanson Signs Elsewhere

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The Braves have had more success in extending young, core players than any team in recent memory, but for a second straight offseason they’re facing the potential departure of a longtime regular who’s helped to anchor the infield. Dansby Swanson, like Freddie Freeman before him, reached the open market without signing an extension, has rejected a qualifying offer and is now free to field interest from the game’s other 29 teams.

Atlanta reportedly offered Swanson an extension in the neighborhood of $100MM at some point over the course of the season, but the widespread expectation is for him to outpace that guarantee by a comfortable margin. (MLBTR predicted a seven-year, $154MM contract on last week’s Top 50 free agent list.) One of the biggest questions on the minds of Braves fans is just what the team will do at shortstop. Can Swanson be retained? And, if not, where does the team turn? The market offers a trio of high-end alternatives in the form of Trea Turner, Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts.

As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports, however, it’s unlikely that the Braves will make a legitimate play to sign any of the big free-agent shortstops other than Swanson. President of baseball ops Alex Anthopoulos went out of his way to mention Vaughn Grissom and Orlando Arcia as in-house alternatives at last week’s GM Meetings, and Rosenthal adds that the Braves are generally reluctant to add a major salary that “takes up too high a percentage of their payroll” — including oft-speculated fit Jacob deGrom.

Braves fans were understandably heartened by CEO Terry McGuirk’s comments about Atlanta growing to have one of the game’s five largest payrolls, but what McGuirk didn’t stress was just how close the Braves already are to reaching that territory before making a single addition. Last month at MLBTR, I pointed out that for the Braves to make even one high-priced acquisition, they’d need to exceed the luxury-tax threshold; making a pair of big-name additions — or signing one premier free agent and, say, extending Max Fried — could shatter the threshold and send the team barreling into at least the second tier of luxury penalization.

As things currently stand, Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects the Braves to be less than $5MM away from tier one of the luxury tax . They’d be a first-time luxury payor, so the penalty on the first $20MM by which they cross that threshold would “only” be 20%. The penalty on the next $20MM would jump to a 32% tax.

We’ll get back to the shortstop quandary, but it’s worth digressing and taking a deeper look at just what the luxury tax realities might look like for the Braves.

To put this into more specific context, we can use deGrom as an example. Many believe that the four-time All-Star and two-time Cy Young winner could secure an average annual value of $40MM or more this winter. A $40MM AAV on deGrom would push the Braves’ luxury-tax bill up into the $268MM range — an overage of roughly $35MM. The 20% tax on that first $20MM would come out to $4MM, and the 32% tax they’d be paying on the next $15MM would be another $4.8MM. So to sign deGrom for a $40MM AAV, the Braves would effectively need to be willing to pay $48.8MM in total — at least for the upcoming season. With Justin Verlander seeking a deal comparable to that of Max Scherzer, this can all be applied to him as well.

It’s a similar, but not quite so extreme case with Swanson. Using the $22MM AAV on MLBTR’s predicted contract as an example, Swanson would push the Braves a bit more than $17MM over the luxury tax on his own. That’d make our predicted $22MM AAV more akin to paying $25.4MM this season. And, of course, signing Swanson at that rate would mean that any subsequent salary additions of note would then push the Braves into the second tier of penalization, subjecting them to the same 32% rate mentioned in the deGrom example.

The other wrinkle is that any such signing would further cause the team’s luxury bill to balloon in future seasons. The Braves already have about $135MM of luxury obligations on their 2024 payroll, two years down the road, and that doesn’t include potential club option pickups for veterans like Charlie Morton, Kirby Yates and Collin McHugh — nor does it include arbitration salaries for Fried, A.J. Minter and Kyle Wright. Paying the luxury tax for consecutive seasons would cause those rates of penalization also increase (30% in tier one, 42% in tier two, etc.).

Certainly, there are ways for the Braves to lower their current luxury tab and provide further breathing room, though the path to doing so is not an easy one. There’s little hope of finding a team willing to cover even a small portion of the $36MM still owed to Marcell Ozuna through 2024. Atlanta would probably welcome the opportunity to shed the $9MM owed to Eddie Rosario in 2023, but that’s also far easier said than done after he hit .212/.259/.328 in the first season of a two-year, $18MM contract. One recent source of Twitter speculation among fans — a possible trade of Ronald Acuna Jr. — is not something the Braves are considering, per Rosenthal.

Lengthy digression aside, let’s get back to the shortstop question. If, as Rosenthal suggests, the team is likely to be “out of the picture” for any of Correa, Turner or Bogaerts in the event of a Swanson departure, what might that mean for their 2023 outlook at shortstop?

Grissom and Arcia are in-house candidates, as alluded to by Anthopoulos, but Grissom’s bat wilted after a torrid start to his rookie season in 2022. He still finished with a terrific .291/.353/.440 batting line in 156 plate appearances, but Grissom slashed .420/.463/.660 in his first 54 plate appearances and just .220/.294/.319 over his final 102 trips to the plate. He also skipped Triple-A entirely on his way to the Majors, and scouting opinions on his long-term outlook at shortstop vary. Arcia, once one of the game’s top-ranked prospects, was a roughly league-average hitter in a part-time role last year but carries a .233/.288/.356 slash (70 wRC+) over the past five years.

The free-agent market has some modest stopgaps who could help ease Grissom into the full-time role at shortstop. Elvis Andrus was released by the A’s over the summer, but that was more about preventing his 2023 vesting option from kicking in than about his play. He had a strong finish after signing with the White Sox and hit a combined .249/.303/.404 with 17 homers and 18 steals between the two clubs. Jose Iglesias keeps hitting for average and rarely striking out — .291/.325/.408, 13.1% strikeout rate since 2019 — but defensive metrics have soured on the soon-to-be 33-year-old over the past two seasons. Old friend Andrelton Simmons is a free agent, too, but he’s batted just .216/.277/.261 in 536 plate appearances since Opening Day 2021.

None of those free-agent options are going to inspire Braves fans much — save for the possible nostalgia of a Simmons reunion — but they highlight the fact that it’s a thin crop beyond the “Big Four.” The trade market, then, could be a more palatable approach for Anthopoulos to explore. Cleveland’s Amed Rosario is a clear trade candidate with just a year to go before free agency and a mounting (by the Guardians’ standards) price tag. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $9MM next year, and a low-payroll Guardians club that’s deep in MLB-ready middle infield prospects could look to cash in on the 27-year-old, as I recently explored at greater length.

The Yankees figure to be open to moving on from Isiah Kiner-Falefa now that Oswald Peraza is ready for a look in the Majors. The Reds would likely be open to dealing Kyle Farmer, with whom Anthopoulos is surely familiar dating back to his Dodgers days. Arizona’s Nick Ahmed and St. Louis’ Paul DeJong are veteran alternatives who could be had for pennies on the dollar, as the D-backs and Cardinals would surely welcome the chance to just shed some of the respective $10MM and $11MM remaining on their contracts. Both are buy-low options, at best, coming off poor showings in recent seasons. Any of Kevin Newman (Pirates), Nicky Lopez (Royals) or the oft-injured Adalberto Mondesi (Royals) could likely be had in a deal, but each has some obvious red flags.

To be clear, there’s no indication that the Braves plan to simply stand pat this winter. A reunion with Swanson remains eminently plausible, even if previous extension attempts with his representatives — the same agents who represent Freeman, for what it’s worth — have yet to bear fruit. It’d push the Braves into luxury territory for the first time in franchise history, but based on McGuirk’s comments about a potential top-five payroll club, that’s something on which the front office will have a green light, at least with regard to Swanson.

What does seems far less likely is a lavish spending spree that sees the Braves make multiple marquee splashes on the free-agent market. If Swanson does sign elsewhere, it’s the bulk of the Braves’ heavy lifting may very well come via the trade market and the middle tiers of the free-agent market.

Cubs Expecting To Add Starting Center Fielder; Active In Shortstop Market

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It’s shaping up as a busy off-season for the Cubs as they look to push on with their rebuild and improve on their 74-88 record in 2022. According to remarks made by president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times, the Cubs are expecting to add a starting center fielder, while Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the team has been one of the most active early on in the shortstop market.

“We have guys internally that will certainly play out there [in center],” Hoyer said, “but I think the lion’s share might come from external.”

Rafael Ortega and Christopher Morel had the bulk of the playing time in center this past season, but while both are under club control for next season, Hoyer’s comments make it pretty clear that neither are seen as their center fielder moving forward. Ortega hit .241/.331/.358 with seven home runs, while Morel posted a .235/.308/.433 line with 16 home runs in his rookie campaign. Morel bounced around the infield positions as well, but neither posted positive defensive marks for their work in center.

A number of the Cubs top prospects are outfielders, but they’re at varying stages of their development. Their top prospect, according to Fangraphs, Pete Crowe-Armstrong is at High-A while Kevin Alcantara (third) is at Single-A. Brennen Davis and Alexander Canario are their best outfield prospects at Triple-A, but both are injured and uncertain timelines.

“Certainly with [Alexander] Canario’s injury and Brennen [Davis’] setback, it made that just that much more obvious,” Hoyer said.

As far as center field options go in free agency, the options aren’t particularly plentiful. Aaron Judge is the biggest name available, but while he played a significant amount of center this season for the Yankees, it seems unlikely the Cubs would be prepared to make the sort of splash needed to land him. Brandon Nimmo’s blend of elite on-base skills, solid power, and adequate defense would make him a strong candidate, but even though he’ll be much cheaper than Judge, he’ll still likely command a deal north of $100MM and there’ll be plenty of suitors to drive his price up.

Two less high profile names to consider are Kevin Kiermaier and Cody Bellinger, and Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports reports that both are n the Cubs’ radar. Kiermaier, 33, is a free agent after the Rays declined his team option for 2023. While his previously elite defensive numbers have dropped off as he’s aged, he’s still a strong defender and would be a cheaper stopgap option until one of the Cubs’ prospects are ready. Bellinger could well become a free agent shortly if the Dodgers opt to non-tender him. He’s dropped off considerably since his 47-homer MVP year in 2019, posting a wRC+ of 47 and 83 the past two seasons, but is still a solid defender in center, and at 27, he’s young enough that a change of scenery might allow him to rediscover some of his offensive talent.

While a big splash in center doesn’t appear likely, it could come at shortstop where the team is active in the market for the top four options available – Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts. Wittenmyer’s report adds that the Cubs apparently “love” Correa, something that dates back to the 2012 draft when they were eyeing him up with the sixth pick before he went first overall to the Astros. The 28-year-old had a strong platform year with the Twins, where he signed on a short term deal after no adequate long term deals materialized last winter. He’ll look to cash in this winter though, and it’s certainly possible that his contract lands in the $300MM range over nine or ten years.

The Cubs used Nico Hoerner at shortstop this year to great effect. Hoerner was worth 11 Defensive Runs Saved and 13 Outs Above Average at the position, but he could easily slide over to second base in the event the Cubs do sign one of the aforementioned shortstops, and take over at shortstop again if a new signing begins to decline and needs to switch position.

Ultimately, it’s going to be a busy winter for the Cubs, and it won’t just stop at shortstop and center field. As Wittenmyer adds, the Cubs have explored upgrading at first base and have checked in with Josh Bell and Trey Mancini, while they’re also looking to beef up their rotation and showing interest in Koudai Senga and a reunion with lefty Drew Smyly. The Cubs payroll is currently projected at $126MM, according to RosterResource. That’s well short of the sort of spending they made during their championship years last decade, so as they begin to show progress in their rebuild, it’s not surprising to see them willing to flex their financial muscle again.

Zaidi: Giants In Contact With Free Agent Shortstops, Plan To Issue QO To Carlos Rodon

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The Giants are widely expected to be one of the league’s most active teams this offseason, with the front office reloading after an underwhelming 2022 season. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi met with reporters (including John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle) this evening and confirmed the team could play near the top of the market.

Asked about the club’s free agent priorities, Zaidi told the media “from a financial standpoint, there would be nobody that would be out of our capability.” He went on to note they’ve already had discussions with representatives for free agent shortstops who’ve expressed a willingness to move to second base in deference to Brandon Crawford (via Jon Morosi of MLB.com). Teams technically aren’t allowed to negotiate contract terms with free agents from other teams until tomorrow evening, but they can discuss more general concepts like roster fit during the exclusive negotiation period.

Zaidi didn’t specify the players involved, although it’s not hard to infer he’s speaking about the top shortstops on the market. Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson are going to be priority targets for a number of the game’s biggest-spending teams. It’s notable that Zaidi spoke of potentially moving an external pickup to the other side of the bag while keeping Crawford at shortstop, although it’s not clear if that’s an absolute requirement for any player under consideration. Scott Boras, who represents both Correa and Bogaerts, told reporters he hasn’t heard from teams looking to push either player off the position (link via Bob Nightengale of USA Today).

While adding a top shortstop is plausible for a San Francisco club looking to get younger and more athletic this winter, Zaidi and his group are sure to cast a wide net. The mention of the financial wherewithal to pursue any player available will lead to further speculation about the market’s top free agent. The Giants are sure to be linked to Aaron Judge throughout the winter, as they’re indeed among the clubs most well-positioned for that kind of expenditure. San Francisco has roughly $72.5MM in guaranteed commitments on the books, pending a call on Evan Longoria’s option. Even with a fairly heavy arbitration class, the Giants have plenty of room before approaching this year’s $155MM Opening Day mark, and they’re nowhere near the franchise-record heights that pushed $200MM.

Of course, San Francisco is facing a few potential key departures. Ace Carlos Rodón opted out of the second year of his deal and is back on the open market. Zaidi confirmed the club’s obvious decision to tag him with a $19.65MM qualifying offer (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area), which Rodón is a lock to reject in pursuit of a deal north of nine figures. That’d entitle the Giants to a compensatory draft choice between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round (roughly 75th overall) in next year’s draft if the star southpaw departs.

San Francisco also sees corner outfielder Joc Pederson hit the open market, and while he certainly won’t receive a QO, Zaidi reiterated the team would like to keep him around (Shea link). The lefty-hitting outfielder posted a .274/.353/.521 line after signing a $6MM guarantee last offseason, and the club has discussed a potential extension as far back as September. Pederson is sure to beat $6MM this time around and looks to have a good shot at a multi-year contract after his quality platform year.

Dodgers Notes: Kershaw, Correa, Lux, Shortstop

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The Dodgers have not yet determined whether they’ll make a qualifying offer to Clayton Kershaw, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said last night at the GM Meetings (Twitter thread via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). Friedman emphasized that bringing Kershaw back “is a real priority” for the team, adding that “things just feel more right in the world when Kershaw is wearing a Dodgers uniform.” The team did not extend a qualifying offer to Kershaw last year, due largely out of respect for the veteran lefty, whom they didn’t want to force into a rushed decision.

Similar sentiments are at play in 2022, it seems, as Friedman again spoke Kershaw taking the time to talk with his wife to decide what’s best for their future. Common consensus last winter was that Kershaw would either return to the Dodgers (as he eventually did) or sign with the Rangers, who play their home games a short drive from Kershaw’s Texas home, which would thus afford him more time with his wife and four young children.

It’s a familiar situation for the Dodgers, and if last year’s process is any indication, it could take some time for things to play out. A Kershaw return would be a boon for a rotation that’ll be missing Walker Buehler (Tommy John surgery) for all of the 2023 season and could see Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart as free agents. At present, the only locks for the Dodgers’ 2023 rotation are Julio Urias, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin.

To that end, it’s not a surprise that Friedman described starting pitching as a “very” high priority for the Dodgers this winter (Twitter thread via Jack Harris of the L.A. Times). Friedman also touched on the team’s shortstop situation, noting that even if Trea Turner signs elsewhere, the team feels confident in Gavin Lux’s ability to take over the shortstop role on an everyday basis. Of course, it’s hardly a surprise to see any baseball operations leader giving a vote of confidence to an in-house option, and such comments shouldn’t necessarily be interpreted as a steadfast declaration that the Dodgers would be “out” on the likes of Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson if Turner ultimately signs elsewhere after rejecting his qualifying offer.

It’s worth noting, to at least some extent, that The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote this morning that Dodgers officials harbor some concern as to how Correa in particular would be perceived by fans. It’s been five years since the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing scandal, but fans have a long memory and still hold plenty of resentment for how that season played out. There are greater public relations implications with a Correa/Dodgers fit than with Correa and another club.

Adding my own two cents to the matter, it’d be particularly problematic if both Correa and Turner wind up with comparable price tags — as many expect — and Correa gets out to a poor start. Even setting performances aside, there’d be plenty of fan backlash at the notion of letting Turner, currently popular and productive in Los Angeles, leave in favor of Correa if the two indeed have comparable price tags. Plus, as Rosenthal alludes to, the Dodgers tend to shy away from such lengthy contractual commitments. Mookie Betts is a notable exception, but Freddie Freeman is the only other contract of at least six years given out by the Dodgers under Friedman; Correa and Turner both figure to command lengthier pacts.

As for Lux, the notion of him stepping up as the everyday shortstop isn’t necessarily far-fetched. The 24-year-old (25 in a few weeks) ranked as one of the game’s five best prospects heading into the 2020 season and, after pedestrian small-sample results in 2019-20, has elevated his level of play. Lux’s .242/.328/.364 slash in 2021 was about 10% worse than league average, by measure of wRC+, but he upped his production with a .276/.346/.399 output in 2022 (113 wRC+).

Lux was having a monster summer, hitting .308/.380/.462 over a span of more than 300 plate appearances, when he began experiencing back pain and received a cortisone shot. He missed about two weeks’ worth of games in September and, upon returning, hit just .154/.170/.192 in his final 54 plate appearances, which helped to drag down his season-long numbers. Still, there’s good reason to believe that a full, healthy season of Lux in 2023 could be a highly valuable player for the Dodgers at shortstop.

At this stage of the offseason, teams haven’t even yet been granted permission to speak with free agents from other clubs, so there’s no way to properly gauge just what trajectory the team might take. Nonetheless, it’s of some note to hear Friedman prioritize Kershaw (and starting pitching in general) and give a vote of confidence to Lux as a shortstop option. The Dodgers will surely be attached to all of the marquee shortstops to an extent this winter, but that’s as much a reflection on their deep pockets and “open to anything’ mentality as it is on their perceived need at that specific position.

Bloom: Bogaerts Remains Red Sox’s Preferred Option At Shortstop

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The Red Sox and star shortstop Xander Bogaerts didn’t agree on a contract extension before the start of the offseason. The four-time All-Star officially opted out of the final three years on his deal with Boston this morning, sending him to the open market for the first time in his career. The Sox still have exclusive negotiating rights with Bogaerts through Thursday, but there’s little question at this point his representatives at the Boras Corporation will soon be in contact with other teams.

Speaking with reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe) this evening, Boston chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom reiterated that retaining Bogaerts would be the Sox’s ideal choice for addressing shortstop. “We want him here. He makes us better,” Bloom said. “We respect his right to exercise [the opt-out] and to explore the market. We want him back and we will stay engaged with him.”

Boston’s baseball operations leader acknowledged the presence of a few other star free agent shortstops — namely Carlos Correa, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. While Bloom suggested the team would explore the market for potential alternatives, he didn’t mince words when expressing the front office’s overall preference. “He’s our first choice. That’s not going to change,” he told reporters. “Part of our jobs is to explore every option to field a contending team next year and put together a really good group. We need to explore every possible way to do that, but Bogey’s our first choice.”

Bloom indicated he believes either Trevor Story or Enrique Hernández would be capable of playing shortstop if necessary but made clear the team would prefer to keep them at other positions to keep Bogaerts around. Story moved to second base this past season. While he’d played his whole career at shortstop with the Rockies prior to this year, Story has spoken about his desire to stick at the keystone if it means the Red Sox re-sign their longtime shortstop. That’d presumably keep Hernández in center field primarily, with the lackluster free agent market at that position seemingly playing a role in Boston’s decision to keep the utilityman around with a $10MM contract extension on Labor Day.

Of course, this is far from the first time Sox’s brass has gone on record about their affinity for Bogaerts. Immediately after the season, Bloom called re-signing the four-time Silver Slugger winner before free agency the team’s top priority. That obviously didn’t happen, and Speier writes that while the sides did have some discussions after the season wrapped up, it became clear fairly early on they wouldn’t get a deal done before the opt-out date.

Boston is sure to kick off the offseason by tagging Bogaerts with a qualifying offer. They’d receive only minimal compensation if he were to sign elsewhere, however. Because the Red Sox exceeded the base luxury tax threshold this past season, they’d add only an extra draft choice after the fourth round. Conversely, signing a player like Turner or Swanson who rejects a qualifying offer from another team — Correa is ineligible to receive a QO because he’s previously received one in his career — would lead Boston to forfeit both their second and fifth-highest picks in next year’s draft and $1MM in international signing bonus space. Certainly, the front office will weigh their long-term projections of each of the top free agents more heavily than the draft choices in deciding how to proceed, but they’d pay a heavier draft penalty for adding either Swanson or Turner than they would for retaining Bogaerts (and thus forfeiting the compensatory pick).

Bogaerts heads into his age-31 season coming off a .307/.377/.456 mark through 631 plate appearances. His power production dipped relative to his best seasons, but he hit above .285 with an on-base percentage at .360 or better for the fifth straight year. He also earned slightly above-average marks from public defensive metrics, an important step towards quieting some concerns he’ll have to move off shortstop in the relatively near future.

Carlos Correa Opts Out Of Twins Contract

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TODAY: Correa officially opted out of his contract today and became a free agent, according to the MLB Players Association (via Twitter).

OCTOBER 13: From the moment Carlos Correa signed a short-term, opt-out-laden deal with the Twins back in March, it’s felt like a foregone conclusion that he’d take the first opt-out provision in that contract and return to free agency this winter. Unsurprisingly, Correa revealed in an interview with El Nuevo Dia’s Jorge Figueroa Loza that he plans to do just that. Correa, citing his age and performance with the Twins this past season, tells Figueroa Loza that exercising the first of two opt-out clauses in his contract “is the right decision.”

As he’s done on multiple occasions recently, Correa effused praise for the Twins organization and stated multiple times that his hope is to remain with in Minnesota on a long-term deal. To that end, it’s worth noting that Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said just this week that there have already been conversations with Correa and agent Scott Boras (link via Megan Ryan of the Minneapolis Star Tribune). Falvey indicated a willingness to again “get creative” in order to keep Correa in Minnesota while also recognizing that they’ll likely face stiff competition in his return to the market. Correa, even in repeatedly expressing his hopes of signing a long-term deal with Minnesota, acknowledged that “what you want doesn’t always happen.”

By virtually any measure, Correa’s 2022 season was a strong one. The former Rookie of the Year and two-time All-Star slashed .291/.366/.467 with 22 home runs, 24 doubles and a triple in 590 plate appearances across 136 games. Correa’s power output was down a bit, but that was true on a league-wide scale in 2022. Both wRC+ and OPS+, which adjust for the league’s run-scoring environment and for a player’s home park, pegged Correa’s bat 40% better than league average in 2022.

Defensively, Correa didn’t replicate his 2021 Platinum Glove campaign, although it may not have been reasonable to expect him to duplicate what will likely be a career year in terms of defensive stats. His top-of-the-scale ratings dipped to merely above-average in both Defensive Runs Saved (3) and Ultimate Zone Rating (1.0). Notably, Statcast’s Outs Above Average pegged Correa as a negative defender (-3) for the first time since 2016. When taking in his defensive body of work as a whole, however, Correa is tied for sixth among all MLB players, regardless of position, with 50 DRS since 2018. His 45 OAA in that time rank seventh.

Both the Minnesota front office and manager Rocco Baldelli have praised Correa’s glovework on the whole, and also touted him as a valuable clubhouse presence and vocal team leader. Correa has also been more durable in the last three seasons than he was earlier in his career. He had brief absences in 2022 after being plunked on the hand and while spending time on the Covid-related injured list, but Correa has played in 89% of his team’s possible games since 2020.

While last year’s market didn’t produce the $330MM+ contract Correa reportedly sought, the 2022-23 market will be a different animal. He’ll be going up against three fellow star shortstops — Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner — rather than four this time around, and as Correa himself noted within this latest interview, he’ll be the only of the four who’s ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. (Players can only receive a QO once in their career, and Correa rejected one last November.) The upcoming offseason also won’t be impeded by a lockout as the 2021-22 offseason was — a 99-day transaction stoppage during which time Correa also switched representation, hiring the Boras Corporation.

All of that context notwithstanding, it’s still tough — albeit not impossible — to imagine Correa landing the megadeal he sought a year ago. He is, after all, a year older this time around and is coming off a strong but lesser campaign than the one he enjoyed with Houston in 2021.

That’s not to say that he can’t expect to find a lengthy and lucrative deal in free agency, just that securing a decade-long deal in the vicinity of his current annual value might not be in the cards. In all likelihood, Boras and Correa will still initially seek out that decade-long term and perhaps again take aim at Bryce Harper’s $330MM overall guarantee — the largest free-agent deal in history — but a compromise in years and/or annual value could ultimately be required. Given that Correa is still just 28 and will play all of next season at that age, even a long-term deal might once again contain an opt-out opportunity a few years into the contract.

As for his stated desire to stay put in Minnesota, it’s feels like a long shot — albeit only in the sense that it would require the Twins, for a second time, to venture into a fiscal stratosphere that has  previously been beyond ownership’s limits. Signing Correa would undoubtedly require Minnesota to handily surpass the franchise-record $184MM commitment they made to Joe Mauer, but that contract was signed 13 years ago and the team’s payroll has grown considerably since that time. The Twins trotted out a payroll around $140MM in 2022, and without Correa on the books, they’ll only have about $40MM in guarantees ($52.5MM after Sonny Gray’s option is exercised).

There’s plenty of room for Correa on the payroll, both in the short-term and in the long-term. Beyond the 2023 season, the only commitment of any real note that’s on the books is Byron Buxton’s contract, and his base salary pays him a reasonable $15MM annually — only escalating toward its maximum $23MM based on MVP voting. (At that point, of course, the Twins would be thrilled to pay him that loftier salary.) The question, then, is not so much whether the Twins can “afford” to sign Correa but whether doing so is the best use of their budget and whether the front office (and owner Jim Pohlad) are convinced that he’ll merit an annual salary approaching or in excess of $30MM per year for the majority of a long-term commitment.

If not the Twins, Correa will have no shortage of options on the market. Each of the Twins, Dodgers (Turner), Red Sox (Bogaerts) and Braves (Swanson) could lose a franchise shortstop and look to the market for a replacement. (It’s worth noting that in Royce Lewis, Gavin Lux, Trevor Story and Vaughnn Grissom, those four teams also all have shortstop alternatives already in-house, as well, however.) Beyond that quartet of teams, it’s widely expected that the Cubs, Phillies and perhaps the Giants will be involved in the shortstop market. The Angels, Cardinals and Orioles are candidates to seek upgrades, too, and given the caliber of names in question, it’s possible that other teams with entrenched shortstops could move their incumbent to accommodate one of these four free agents.

It’s a good time to be a free-agent shortstop, and Correa’s recent comments all but definitively indicate that, barring an extension between now and the opening of free agency (five days after the World Series ends), that’s what he’ll once again be this winter.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

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