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Carlos Correa

Quick Hits: Carpenter, Correa, Garcia

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Former Cardinals’ ace Chris Carpenter has agreed to join the Angels. The 46-year-old former first round pick of the Blue Jays  will “work with young pitchers on their mental skills and advancement toward the majors,” per Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Carpenter worked in the Cardinals front office as a special assistant for a number of years, but he was let go as a result of pandemic-driven belt-tightening. The Angels can certainly use all the help they can get, especially after spending their entire draft capital on pitchers. Besides, Carpenter knows a thing or two about the struggle to establish yourself in the Majors. Carpenter is one of the most notable late developers in recent history, making his first All-Star team at age 30 after moving from his original franchise to St. Louis, where he became a Cy Young winner and three-time All-Star. Elsewhere around the game…

  • Despite his involvement in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal and the negative public sentiment that’s followed him since, expect Carlos Correa to cash in big this winter, writes The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. MLBTR agrees, having placed him atop the free agent rankings back in August. Indeed, Correa has been the face of the Astros post-scandal, and even that could be construed as a positive for his next club. His talent is unquestioned, and he has certainly proved that he can withstand just about any level of public criticism.
  • Avisail Garcia and the Brewers share a $12MM mutual option for the 2022 season, and Garcia will be first to make a move. As a note of clarification, that’s how all mutual options work, writes The Athletic’s Will Sammon. Garcia put up a resurgent campaign, slashing .262/.330/.490 with 29 home runs in 515 plate appearances. Garcia was one of the Brewers’ most consistent power bats, and they have a lot of money committed to their outfield even without him. Still, with a 14-man arbitration class, the Brewers might consider declining their side of Garcia’s option even if he does opt-in.

Carlos Correa Discusses Free Agency

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Carlos Correa’s top priority is getting the Astros back to the World Series, so while the star shortstop’s free agency will be a hot topic once the season is over, Correa doesn’t want his 2021 campaign to end any time soon.  However, Correa did address his pending trip to the open market while speaking with NBC Sports Chicago’s Gordon Wittenmyer, and seemed to hint that a reunion in Houston seems unlikely.

The two sides had talks about an extension last spring, with the Astros reportedly floating offers of six years/$120MM and five years/$125MM.  Even at the time, however, Correa had a dim view of how serious the Astros were, saying “there were not really any negotiations,” and that the Astros “made it clear to me they don’t believe in long contracts, they don’t believe in big contracts.”

In his more recent remarks, Correa again addressed those preseason contract talks, saying “It was like, ’Take it or leave it; this is what we’ve got.’  And now my value has gone up.  If they didn’t want to meet my price in spring training, now that I led the league in [Baseball Reference] WAR at 7.2 and I’m in the playoffs helping the team, I don’t know if they’ll meet my price now.”

Earlier this week, Houston owner Jim Crane said that he feels his team still has “a chance” to retain Correa, and that the Astros will “definitely be in the mix” with the shortstop’s other suitors.  The Astros haven’t signed a contract longer than five years during Crane’s tenure, and while the owner indicated that “things can change” on that front, Correa seems to have his eye on a much longer commitment.

Correa celebrated his 27th birthday only a few weeks ago, making him a rare top-tier free agent who is hitting the market at a younger age.  “A lot of people don’t believe in 10-year contracts and in long-term deals and all that.  But when you look at most of the 10-year contracts they’ve been giving out, the long-term deals, they’re players that are 31, 30, 32,” the shortstop noted.  “I’m going to be 27 on my first year.  I’m young, I’m healthy, and I perform.  So we’ll see what happens.”

While another championship ring would perfectly cap things off for Correa, 2021 has already been an excellent platform year for the impending free agent.  Shohei Ohtani was technically the overall bWAR leader due to his unique two-way contributions, but as Correa noted, the shortstop did indeed lead all regular position players in bWAR while hitting .279/.366/.485 with 26 home runs over 640 plate appearances.  That also marks his highest number of PA since 2016, as Correa avoided the injuries have hampered him for the previous four years and missed only a week due to a stint on the COVID-related injury list.

Between his youth, All-Star production, and possibly with some doubts silenced about his durability, Correa projects as arguably the top free agent on the market this winter, let alone the top option in a loaded class of shortstops.  In addition to his offensive numbers, Correa pointed out that he also led all players in defensive bWAR (2.9) in 2021, “so when you talk about shortstops that can do both things at an elite level, I think you should mention my name.”

While it remains to be seen just how high the bidding will get, Correa stressed that “I want to win.  Money’s great and everything, but I don’t want to be miserable in the clubhouse, losing every day.”  Wittenmyer’s piece was written through the lens of Correa as a potential fit with the Cubs, so the fact that the Cubs are coming off a losing season and may have more rebuilding to do might rule them out as a legitimate contender to sign Correa this winter.  For what it’s worth, Correa did talk glowingly about a pre-draft workout at Wrigley Field in 2012, though the Cubs never got a chance to pick Correa since the Astros quickly pounced on him as the first overall selection.

Astros Owner Jim Crane Discusses Correa, Verlander, Gurriel, Baker

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While Astros owner Jim Crane is focused on his team’s ALDS matchup with the White Sox, Crane talked about several impending offseason topics with FOX 26’s Mark Berman, The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome (all multiple links) and other reporters today.

With several major names scheduled to hit free agency, Crane said his team plans to “definitely be in the mix” to sign Carlos Correa, and “I think we have a chance” to retain the shortstop’s services.  Of course, “it just depends on where we end up on that and what Carlos wants to do.  Certainly dollars are a factor.”

The Astros made attempts to sign Correa to a contract extension last spring, reportedly making offers in the range of five years/$125MM and six years/$120MM.  Those numbers seemed low even before Correa delivered an All-Star performance in 2021, and the 27-year-old now seems likely to land at least twice as much money on the open market.

Re-signing Correa would require the Astros to make the biggest financial commitment in franchise history, which Crane at least sounded open to, if a little guardedly.  “I never count anything out….We have a history of doing something in the neighborhood of five (years) is the most we’ve ever done since I’ve been here,” Crane said.  “Things can change.  We’re not counting it out.”

Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Lance McCullers Jr. have all signed five-year extensions with Houston during Crane’s stewardship, and it isn’t as if Crane has been unwilling to spend.  Altuve’s five additional years gave the second baseman $151MM in new guaranteed money, Bregman’s extension was worth $100MM, and McCullers landed $85.5MM.  That said, Correa said back in April that the Astros “made it clear to me they don’t believe in long contracts, they don’t believe in big contracts,” which could indicate that his contractual expectations go far beyond any commitment the Astros are willing to make.

Crane didn’t bring up the qualifying offer in regards to Correa, in all likelihood because it seems a foregone conclusion that Houston will issue Correa a QO and he’ll reject the one-year offer, leaving the Astros in line to receive draft pick compensation if Correa did sign elsewhere.  Justin Verlander is a bit more complicated qualifying-offer case given that the veteran ace has missed virtually all of the last two seasons with injury, but Crane said “we’ll probably” issue Verlander the QO “and then see where it goes.”

Even after two lost seasons and now on the verge of his age-39 season, Verlander is still “looking for a contract of some length,” according to Crane.  This would imply that Verlander would reject the one-year qualifying offer (though it would pay in the neighborhood of a $20MM salary for 2022) in search of a longer-term deal, and given Verlander’s track record, it certainly seems possible that at least one or even multiple teams would be willing to sign the future Hall-of-Famer to such a multi-year contract.

If Verlander did reject the QO, the Astros would at least benefit via compensatory draft picks.  However, Verlander has 10 days to decide whether or not to accept a qualifying offer, and if he doesn’t get wind of any teams showing interest in a multi-year deal, Verlander might choose to take the QO and remain in a familiar situation in Houston.  The Astros and Verlander’s camp could then negotiate a longer-term extension after the QO had been accepted, similar to what Jose Abreu and the White Sox did in the 2019-20 offseason.

There appears to be much less controversy surrounding Yuli Gurriel’s 2022 status.  The Astros hold an $8MM club option on Gurriel for next season, which looks to Crane like “a pretty easy decision.  I’m sure we’ll execute on that.”  The 37-year-old Gurriel is coming off a strong season that saw him hit 15 homers and win the AL batting title as part of an overall .319/.383/.462 performance in 605 plate appearances.

Beyond the player roster, manager Dusty Baker isn’t under contract beyond this season, as Crane said “we haven’t really talked about it.  We’re going to wait for things to get over with here” in the Astros’ playoff run.  Baker has led the Astros to the postseason in each of his two years in Houston, and the veteran manager has indicated that he would like to continue with the team.

Though Crane noted that GM James Click has authority over the manager’s job, “I’ll certainly weigh in on it and we’ll make a decision probably together on that one because I did hire [Baker] to begin with.”  Crane did give Baker some measure of a vote of confidence in noting that Baker “has done a great job for us.  I like Dusty a lot.”

Free Agent Notes: Correa, Iglesias, Rodriguez

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The upcoming free agent shortstop market has been talked about for awhile now, and we’re still a few months off from seeing how the whole thing plays out. Perhaps the most coveted of the soon-to-be available shortstops is the Astros’ Carlos Correa. One potential match for Correa’s services will be the Tigers, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

The Tigers are an up-and-coming team with plenty of financial flexibility, and it’s certainly interesting to think about Correa once again teaming up with his former skipper A.J. Hinch. As hard as it is to imagine Correa leaving Houston, they do have prospect Jeremy Pena waiting in the wings, making an exit at least feasible. The Tigers, meanwhile, have one of the most open shortstop situations in the game, with incumbent Niko Goodrum easily able to shift into a super-utility role.

Angels’ closer Raisel Iglesias figures to be another in-demand free agent this winter. His priority, however, is re-signing with the Angels, writes Jeff Fletcher of the Orange-County Register. Iglesias made the most of his first season with the Angels, tossing 69 innings in 64 appearances with a 2.61 ERA/2.87 FIP. He has notched 34 saves, a mark that will look attractive to contenders this offseason.

In terms of rotations arms, there are few with the upside of the Red Sox’ Eduardo Rodriguez. Rodriguez and the Red Sox spoke about a possible extension earlier in the year, but there wasn’t much progress made and the two sides ultimately decided to table talks until the offseason, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. After complications from COVID-19 cost Rodriguez all of 2020, he has returned to his usual stable workload, making 31 starts for the playoff hopefuls.

Rodriguez hasn’t quite pitched to his pre-2020 level, though his 4.77 ERA may be a touch inflated. A 3.33 FIP suggests the 28-year-old hasn’t lost a step. He’s tossed 156 2/3 innings with an above-average 27.4 percent strikeout rate, 7.0 percent walk rate, 44.2 percent groundball rate, all numbers that will look good on Rodriguez’s free agent resume this winter.

2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary  — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

Astros Activate Carlos Correa, Austin Pruitt

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The Astros have reinstated shortstop Carlos Correa and right-hander Austin Pruitt from the injured list in advance of tonight’s game against the White Sox. Correa had been on the COVID-19 IL, while Pruitt was on the 60-day IL all year after undergoing elbow surgery last September.

The Astros had a pair of vacancies on the 40-man roster, so no corresponding moves were necessary in that regard. However, they will need to make a 40-man move whenever left-hander Brooks Raley, who also landed on the COVID IL last week, returns. To clear active roster space, infielder Taylor Jones was optioned to Triple-A Sugar Land.

Correa’s having an incredible platform season, hitting .288/.385/.510 over 358 plate appearances while playing high-end defense at shortstop. Pruitt, meanwhile, will be making his first major league appearance since 2019 (and his Astros’ debut) whenever he enters a game. Houston acquired the righty from the Rays over the 2019-20 offseason, but the elbow issues that eventually required surgery kept him from pitching last year. He worked to a 4.87 ERA/4.23 SIERA across 67 appearances (ten starts) with Tampa Bay from 2017-19.

Astros Place Carlos Correa On Injured List

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The Astros announced they’ve placed star shortstop Carlos Correa on the COVID-19 injured list. Fellow infielder Taylor Jones has been recalled from Triple-A Sugar Land to take his spot on the active roster.

Correa has been sick, manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle) before the team’s announcement of his IL placement. There’s no indication he’s actually tested positive for COVID-19; players can be placed on the COVID IL merely for feeling virus-like symptoms. There’s no minimum term for players on the COVID IL.

It has been a banner season for Correa, who’s bounced back from an average 2020 campaign to perform at an MVP-caliber level. The 26-year-old has hit a stellar .288/.385/.510 and popped sixteen home runs across 358 plate appearances. He’s also played excellent defense at shortstop and already been worth around four wins above replacement in the estimation of both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. Both outlets have Correa among the ten most valuable position players in the league this season.

Carlos Correa vs. Trevor Story

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In the comment section on my recent 2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings, there was a lot of debate about the merits of shortstops Carlos Correa and Trevor Story, who seem to clearly fall behind Corey Seager in the upcoming free agent class.  Which player will have greater earning power in free agency?

Some points of comparison:

Age on Opening Day 2022

  • Correa: 27.54 years
  • Story: 29.39 years
  • Difference: 1.85 years

Age is a crucial factor in free agent contract length, as teams want to avoid as many decline years as possible.  Capturing a player’s age 27 season in free agency is a rare thing.  In the cases of Bryce Harper (13 years), Manny Machado (10 years), and Jason Heyward (eight years), teams were actually able to capture age 26.  There are not any other recent cases of free agent deals that included age 26 or 27.

Machado signed for ten years and $300MM, while the Mets recently extended Francisco Lindor for ten years and $341MM, albeit with deferred money.  The players were paid through age 35 and 37, respectively.  A contract running through age 37, as Lindor’s does, is pretty rare.  I think teams will be looking to commit to Correa and Story through age 35 or 36, at most.  Paying through age 35 would mean a nine-year deal for Correa, though that might be a long shot given his inconsistency and injury history.  It’d mean a seven-year deal for Story.  Those terms would only be available if the players are considered highly desirable after strong 2021 seasons.

Offense

Rest of 2021 Season ZiPs/Steamer projections in wRC+

  • Correa: 125 / 118
  • Story: 102 / 103

2019 to present wRC+

  • Correa: 126
  • Story: 117

2018 to present wRC+

  • Correa: 115
  • Story: 121

2018 was Story’s best year (128 wRC+) and one of Correa’s worst (101), so whether you include it makes a big difference.  But it’s pretty clear that Correa has a higher ceiling, with marks of 136 in 2015, 152 in 2017, and 143 in 2019.  As we’ll discuss later, Correa was quite clearly affected after returning from a back injury in 2018, so I think the “2019 to present” numbers are a better reflection of his true ability.

Why use wRC+?  It’s park-adjusted, so it neutralizes the fact that Story has played 50.7% of his games in Coors Field.  If you cite straight-up numbers with no adjustment, you’d clearly prefer Story.  I think any MLB team interested in Story would attempt to neutralize the effects of Coors, though.  It is not as simple as looking at Story’s work on the road and assuming that’s how he’d play for a new team in a neutral ballpark.  But since 2018, Story does have a huge split: a 136 wRC+ at home, and 105 on the road.  In terms of triple slash, Story is at .266/.327/.450 on the road since 2018, and .316/.379/.642 at home.

Story may follow the path of Matt Holliday.  From 2005-07, Holliday posted an even more extreme 166 at home and 108 on the road.  He was not a 108 wRC+ hitter after leaving Coors, however, putting up an excellent 145 mark from 2008-13, mostly for the Cardinals.  Holliday was able to spend all of his 2009 contract year away from Coors, posting a 141 wRC+ for the A’s and Cardinals that likely helped him land the largest contract of the 2009-10 offseason.  DJ LeMahieu is another example of a former Rockie who continued to hit well after posting extreme splits.

In the likely event Story is traded this summer, he’ll have a chance to demonstrate his standard 120 wRC+ production in a more neutral environment for a few months.  That’s more likely than a Correa trade, and being free of a qualifying offer would be an advantage for Story.

It makes little sense to remove park factors, when Minute Maid Park has suppressed offense (outside of 2019) while Coors Field has inflated it by a minimum of 12% during Story’s career.  But for comparison, Correa has hit .276/.352/.483 since 2017 and .258/.334/.453 since 2018.  Story stands at .278/.342/.524 since 2017 and .291/.353/.547 since 2018.  Story has reached the 35 home run mark twice, while Correa’s career-best is 24.

As for Correa, what about the sign-stealing scandal?  According to MLB’s report, the bulk of the Astros’ sign-stealing efforts were in 2017, in which Correa put up a career-best 152 wRC+.  He was excellent both at home and on the road, though the scheme is only thought to have occurred at the Astros’ home park.  MLB’s report suggested the Astros did not utilize trash-can banging in 2018, when Correa dropped down to 101.  That 101 mark may be explained by a back injury, which I’ll get into later.  The Astros also weren’t thought to be cheating in 2019, but Correa bounced back to a 143 mark.

Astros fan Tony Adams analyzed home data for the Astros from 2017, and found 140 total trash can bangs for George Springer and 97 for Correa.  If potential free agent suitors consider Springer and Correa equally complicit in the sign-stealing, it would bode well for Correa, since the scandal didn’t seem to have much effect on Springer’s market.  Ultimately, like Springer, Correa just needs to go out and have a big contract year if he wants to get paid.  There’s a solid argument that in a neutral ballpark, he’s a better hitter than Story.

Defense

By measure of UZR/150, Story is at 3.9 since 2018, while Correa sits at -3.5.  Story also leads in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), though that’s a cumulative stat and he played an additional 1,042 innings in the field – 47% more than Correa did.  Outs Above Average, which is part of Statcast, is more sophisticated than UZR or DRS, but doesn’t necessarily tell a clear story.  Here’s each player’s OAA by year:

  • 2016: Story 4 (823 innings), Correa -17 (1355.6 innings)
  • 2017: Story 7 (1185.3 innings), Correa -3 (946 innings)
  • 2018: Story -5 (1372.6 innings), Correa 17 (959 innings)
  • 2019: Story 18 (1257.3 innings), Correa 9 (642.3 innings)
  • 2020: Story 2 (491.3 innings), Correa 3 (475 innings)

It would appear that Story’s defense slipped to a below-average level in only one season, 2018, on which OAA and UZR/150 agree.  There’s no clear injury in 2018 to explain the lapse, though he miss a few late September games with elbow soreness.  Story was able to improve his range and reduce his errors in 2019, and seems to have settled in as an above-average defender.

We’ll talk about durability in the next section, but with Correa we have a player who has tallied 1,000 innings in the field exactly once, in his 2016 sophomore season.  UZR suggested he was a bit below average that year, while OAA had him as the game’s worst defensive shortstop.

2018 is particularly odd for Correa, where OAA shows him as the game’s fourth-best defensive shortstop while UZR/150 has him as the fourth-worst.  That was a year in which Correa avoided the IL until late June, at which point he missed over a month due to a back injury.  He acknowledged that the injury played a role in his plummeting offense, and his OAA was lower after the injury.  MLB.com’s Mike Petriello suggested to me that the Astros’ frequent shifting, and UZR’s lack of accounting for that, might account for the difference between the two stats.

Correa suffered another major injury toward the end of May 2019 – a cracked rib that cost him two months – as well as more back pain in late August of that year.  Nonetheless, his defense doesn’t seem to have suffered.

Both Story and Correa have been above average defenders since 2019, ranking fourth and ninth respectively in OAA.  Story is carried largely by his 2019 season, for which he was voted a Gold Glove finalist for the first time.  Though he has dropped off so far this year, Story has often ranked among the top 40 in the game in terms of sprint speed, which is a factor in his defense.  I think it’s safe to say that Story is the superior defender.  It’s worth noting that Correa has already expressed a willingness to move to third base if needed, while the topic hasn’t really been broached for Story.

Durability

Story was drafted 45th overall by the Rockies out of high school in 2011.  As a minor leaguer in 2014, he missed roughly a month due to hairline fracture on his left pinky finger.  The Rockies traded longtime shortstop Troy Tulowitzki in July 2015, taking on Jose Reyes in the process.  In 2016, Reyes was suspended through May to begin the year under the league’s domestic violence policy, opening the door for Story to make the team out of camp.  After becoming the Rockies’ starter in 2016, Story’s season ended on July 30th due to a torn UCL in his left thumb that would require surgery.  It was still good for a fourth-place Rookie of the Year finish.

A new injury popped up in May 2017, as Story strained his left shoulder and missed the minimum two weeks.  In late September 2018, Story exited a game with right elbow soreness, but he missed only five games.  In June of 2019, Story injured his right thumb after a headfirst slide, with the resulting IL stint costing him 11 games.

That’s the full extent of Story’s injury history in his five-plus years.  He’s played in 522 games since 2017, 14th in all of MLB.  Story was able to recover quickly from minor injuries in 2017, ’18, and ’19, and can safely be penciled in for 145-150 games annually.

Correa was drafted first overall by the Astros out of high school in 2012.  He dealt with only minor injuries in the minor leagues until June 2014, when he suffered a fractured right fibula sliding into third base and had to undergo surgery.  By January 2015, his ankle was back to 100%.

Correa opened the 2015 season at Double-A, a defensible choice since he’d yet to play at that level.  He reached Triple-A by May and went on to make his big league debut on June 8th.  The timing worked out well for the Astros to receive part of a seventh year of control of Correa and also avoid Super Two status, but his starting the year in the minors was justified.  Correa played 99 dynamic regular season games in 2016, avoiding injury and winning the Rookie of the Year award.

2016, just Correa’s age 21 season, was perhaps the best of his career.  He missed three games in June with an ankle sprain and another four with shoulder inflammation, but avoided the IL.  Correa would play 153 games in the regular season that year, the only time he’s exceeded 110 Major League games in a season.

Correa’s injury history is significant, but also limited to the three-year period of 2017-19.  On July 17th, 2017, according to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, “Correa left Monday’s 9-7 loss to the Mariners in the fourth inning after injuring the thumb on a swing, the same thumb he originally hurt sliding head-first into home July 4 in Atlanta.”  The torn thumb ligament required surgery and cost him more than six weeks.  He returned successfully in September of that year.

Correa’s next IL stint was in June of 2018 due to a back injury.  Like the thumb the prior year, this injury cost him about a month and a half.  Though he returned in mid-August, the issue lingered and affected his performance for the rest of the season.  From 2015-19, 2018 is Correa’s only season with a wRC+ below 123, and it’s easy to attribute his overall 101 mark that year to his back injury.  Correa had a 128 wRC+ before the injury, and just a 45 mark thereafter.

Correa’s back healed up and he started yoga in the 2018-19 offseason, but a cracked rib suffered in late May 2019 cost him a full two months.  Oddly, Correa said the rib was cracked by what must have been a particularly aggressive massage.  After he’d been back for about a month, he went on the IL again due to a back injury.  Since then, Correa has avoided the IL, playing in 58 of 60 games in 2020.

Both Story and Correa have been starters since 2016.  Story has played in 619 games – 19% more than Correa’s 520.  Is Correa, who has yet to reach his 27th birthday, simply an injury-prone player?  Or might he settle in at 150 games per year if he avoids headfirst slides and rough massages?  If I was looking at signing him, it’s his back that I’d be concerned about, as it cost him roughly two and a half months during the 2018-19 seasons.  150 games this year would go a long way.

Overall Value

Much of Correa’s value is packed into the earlier years of his career, when he put up 13.7 WAR in 361 games from 2015-17.  He’s managed only 6.1 WAR since, roughly the same as what Story did in 2019 alone.  Career-wise, Correa leads Story 19.8 to 17.9.

From 2018 to present, Correa has been good for 3.7 WAR per 650 plate appearances, while Story is at 5.4.  From 2019 to present, those numbers are 4.7 for Correa and 5.5 for Story.  But here’s how each player projects for the rest of the season per 650 PA, according to FanGraphs:

  • Correa ZiPS: 5.0
  • Correa Steamer: 4.1
  • Story ZiPS: 3.5
  • Story Steamer: 2.9

If you buy those projections, Correa will be the better per-game player moving forward, likely due to the age difference.  Aside from the durability question, that is what MLB teams must determine when offering these players contracts: who will be better over the next seven years or so?

With that lengthy comparison of Carlos Correa and Trevor Story, I turn it over to you.

Quick Hits: Sanchez, Correa, Torres

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Anibal Sanchez continues to prepare himself for the 2021 season. This upcoming Saturday in Miami, he will throw a bullpen session for a few teams, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter). The Phillies were linked to Sanchez this winter, while the Nationals have more recently expressed an interest in bringing the 37-year-old back to DC for a third season. Given the level of comfort between the two sides, the Nats certainly make for a logical match. Their need is clear enough with Patrick Corbin and Jon Lester on the injured list as part of the COVID-19 protocols. The team has not revealed whether either player tested positive or if they are currently out because of contact tracing protocols. Either way, the organization lacks rotation depth. It’s worth mentioning that one of the reasons that Sanchez didn’t sign one of the Major League offers he received this winter was because of concern about COVID, however. Even so, given the need for pitching around the game and Sanchez’s 15-year career as a Major League starter, a signing shortly after Saturday’s bullpen certainly seems on the table. Let’s check in elsewhere around the game…

  • There are few issues more central to the Astros’ future than Carlos Correa’s impending free agency. The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan addresses some of the complexities facing the Astros’ future at short. If Correa were to leave in free agency, prospect Jeremy Pena “is an excellent defender and he’s improved enough offensively in the last two years that he has everyday player potential,” writes Kaplan. Pena has not yet appeared above High-A, so his performance this season will provide a key data point. Given the plethora of shortstops about to hit the open market, however, the Astros could considering trying to snag one of them as a one-year stopgap as the Twins did this winter with Andrelton Simmons and the Blue Jays did with Marcus Semien. Banking on one of those players being available at that price point is risky, however. Still, now that Francisco Lindor has tied his long-term future to the Mets, there may be even more uncertainty for those shortstops behind him in the pecking order. To dig in further, definitely check out Kaplan’s full piece here.
  • Thinking about that future shortstop market, one has to wonder if the Yankees might be a prime player in next year’s shortstop market. Questions persist about Gleyber Torres’ ability to stick defensively at shortstop, per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. The Yankees chose to bring back DJ LeMahieu this winter, thereby blocking Torres’ most natural position and locking him into shortstop. That said, there are always ways to re-assemble a roster, especially with a player as malleable as LeMahieu. Still, keep an eye on the 24-year-old Torres this season. If he’s not able to pick up his defensive play, the Yankees might find themselves in a position to exploit a robust shortstop market next winter.

Carlos Correa Discusses Extension Talks With Astros

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The upcoming free-agent class lost an elite shortstop when Francisco Lindor and the Mets agreed to a whopping 10-year, $341MM contract on Wednesday. But it doesn’t appear the Astros’ Carlos Correa will join Lindor in forgoing a trip to the open market next winter. The Astros made somewhat of an effort to extend Correa, but the two sides “didn’t get close at all,” Correa told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com and other reporters on Thursday. Unless Correa unexpectedly lifts his Opening Day deadline for negotiations, it looks as if he could be going into his last season in Houston.

The Astros made Correa a six-year, $120MM offer and then followed with a five-year, $125MM proposal, according to the former All-Star and AL Rookie of the Year (via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). But Correa doesn’t believe the Astros were ever all that serious about extending him, as he said (per McTaggart): “There were not really any negotiations. The way I feel is it’s another year with the Houston Astros and I’m going to go out there and do my best and try to bring a championship to the city.” Correa added that Houston “made it clear to me they don’t believe in long contracts, they don’t believe in big contracts.”

The Astros have handed out “long” and “big” deals in the past to the likes of second baseman Jose Altuve and third baseman Alex Bregman, and they did give right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. a five-year, $85MM extension last week. As of now, though, it doesn’t seem Correa will join them in sticking around for the long haul.

Going forward, odds are against Correa’s contract approaching Lindor’s, but as an immensely talented 26-year-old, the former No. 1 overall pick should earn a significant payday if he stays healthy and rebounds from his so-so 2020 performance. Correa did miss a good amount of time with various injuries in each season from 2017-19, though his production has mostly been excellent since he debuted in 2015. So far, Correa has batted .276/.353/.480 (127 wRC+) with 107 home runs and 19.4 fWAR in 2,583 plate appearances. Barring any in-season extensions, Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story and Javier Baez will battle to earn the largest deal among free-agent shortstops over the winter.

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