Twins Sign Carlos Correa
March 22: The Twins announced that Correa has officially signed his contract. He’ll be introduced at a press conference tomorrow morning.
March 19: Correa’s deal includes a limited no-trade clause this season, which becomes a full no-trade clause in 2023 and 2024 if he chooses to opt in to those contract years, per Bob Nightengale of USA TODAY (via Twitter). Without knowing the full details of the limited no-trade clause, it’s still a relatively impactful development. If the Twins fall out of contention this season, they’ll have a sizable trade chip on their hands in Correa.
March 18: In a stunning move, the Twins have agreed to sign the market’s top free agent, shortstop Carlos Correa, reports Mark Berman of Houston’s FOX 26 (Twitter link). Rather than the massive long-term deal that Correa has been seeking, he’ll instead sign a three-year, $105.3MM contract with opt-out clauses after the contract’s first and second seasons. ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds that the contract pays an evenly distributed $35.1MM annually. Correa is represented by the Boras Corporation.
The Twins are giving Correa the second-highest average annual value of any position player in MLB history, trailing only the $36MM AAV on Mike Trout‘s decade-long, $360MM contract extension with the Angels and narrowly topping the $35MM AAV on Anthony Rendon‘s seven-year deal with the Angels. The move also means the No. 1 and No. 2 picks from the 2012 draft, Correa and Byron Buxton, will now be teammates for at least the 2022 season.
Upon shedding the remainder of Josh Donaldson‘s contract in a trade with the Yankees, Minnesota was immediately linked to free-agent shortstop Trevor Story. Instead, the more than $40MM saved in that Donaldson deal will be reallocated to Correa, whose $105.3MM guarantee trails only Joe Mauer for the largest in Twins franchise history. Correa rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros at season’s end, meaning the Twins, a revenue-sharing recipient, will forfeit their third-highest selection in this year’s draft in order to sign him. That’ll be their pick in Competitive Balance Round B, which should fall in the mid-60s. The Astros, meanwhile, will gain a compensatory selection at the end of Competitive Balance Round B, which typically falls in the early 70s.
The opt-outs in the deal provide Correa with the ultimate insurance net; if he remains healthy in 2022 and produces anywhere near his 2021 or 2019 levels, he’ll surely reenter the market in search of something along the lines of the 10-year deal he originally sought. If he suffers an injury of note or experiences an unexpected downturn at the plate, he’ll have another $35.1MM salary waiting for him in 2023 with the same opt-out opportunity in the 2023-24 offseason.
The 27-year-old Correa, a career .277/.356/.481 hitter who slashed .279/.366/.485 with a career-high 26 homers in 640 plate appearances this past season, will serve as a focal point in a Twins lineup that is also anchored by Buxton and second baseman Jorge Polanco. He’s been an average or better hitter every season of his big league career, with the exception of the shortened 2020 campaign, and has connected on 20 or more home runs in five of his six full-length seasons at the MLB level. Correa has walked at a 10.8% clip and struck out in 20.5% of his plate appearances since debuting as a 20-year-old rookie, including career-best marks of 11.7% and 18.1%, respectively, this past season.
As with any longtime Astro, Correa comes with a relatively tainted reputation stemming from Houston’s 2017 sign-stealing scandal, but George Springer proved last winter that the market will still pay premium rates for those players, provided they remained productive in subsequent years. Correa only serves as further evidence of that reality. And, just as Springer was embraced by Toronto fans, Correa surely will be well-received in Minnesota so long as he produces in a Twins uniform.
Like Buxton, Correa has had some durability issues, only twice reaching 500 plate appearances in his career. However, he played in 148 games this past season and in 58 of 60 games during the shortened 2020 season. Correa had a brief stay on the Covid-19 list over the summer in 2021, but he hasn’t been on the injured list since sustaining a broken rib in June 2019. The other notable injury he’s had in his career, a torn thumb ligament, came in 2017 and hasn’t had noticeably lingering effects.
Correa only further deepens a Minnesota lineup that is deep in talent but also lacking in consistency. Each of Miguel Sano, Max Kepler and Gary Sanchez have 30-homer seasons in their past but have ebbed and flowed through roller-coaster performances at the plate in recent years. Third baseman Gio Urshela, acquired alongside Sanchez in the Donaldson deal, will also look for a rebound to his 2019-20 levels (.310/.358/.523) after playing through health troubles in 2021.
Meanwhile, former top prospects Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach have considerable offensive ceilings but played through injuries in their first full looks in 2021. Kirilloff, in particular, played through a torn wrist tendon before undergoing season-ending surgery. Top prospect Jose Miranda, who posted video-game numbers between Double-A and Triple-A this past season (.344/.401/.572), is expected to debut in 2022 and could see time at third base and/or designated hitter.
All of that is to say, the makings of a formidable lineup are present in Minnesota, though they’ll need a few things to break right. From the defensive side of things, Correa gives the Twins a pair of Platinum Glove winners, joining Buxton in that regard. With quality defenders like Kepler, Urshela and young catcher Ryan Jeffers also occupying key spots on the diamond, the Twins should have a strong defensive team overall. The Twins already ranked 12th in the Majors both in Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average in 2021, and Correa should boost both marks.
The larger questions center around the team’s patchwork starting rotation, however. After shipping Jose Berrios to the Blue Jays prior to the 2021 trade deadline and watching fellow righty Kenta Maeda fall to Tommy John surgery not long after, the Twins entered the winter in need of at least three veteran starters to pair with youngsters Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. They’ve yet to reach that goal. Acquiring Sonny Gray from the Reds gave them one notable upgrade, and rolling the dice on a Dylan Bundy rebound prior to the lockout was a sensible enough move in a vacuum. However, the Twins idled for the early portion of the offseason and are now faced with a rotation that is still lacking and a free-agent market that has been largely picked over.
The Twins have been tied to Athletics starters Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, but failing that, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine will need to seek some creative and under-the-radar options — particularly now that they’ve gone all-in on the 2022 season with this Correa deal. Minnesota has a number of pitching prospects on the precipice of the big leagues, but Correa is a clear win-now move that necessitates additional fortification in both the rotation and the bullpen.
It’s not clear just how much latitude Falvey and Levine will have to further boost a payroll that now, with Correa’s addition, is at a projected $128.5MM — within a few million dollars of franchise-record territory. The front office has repeatedly spoken of ownership support to boost payroll as needed in the past, however, and the shocking addition of Correa seems to support the notion that there’s more room to take the team’s spending levels to new heights, at least for the next few seasons.
Correa’s deal is fascinating on a number of levels, not the least of which being that it’s the first time in recent memory where the market’s consensus No. 1 free agent pivoted to a short-term deal with a potentially early reentry to the market. Entering the offseason, the common consensus was that the Yankees and Correa’s new division rivals, the Tigers, would be the primary bidders for his services. The Yankees not only opted to sit out the market for top-end shortstops entirely (despite a clear need), but in essence paved the way for the Twins to make this deal when they took on the remainder of Donaldson’s contract. The Tigers, meanwhile, offered Correa a reported 10-year, $275MM deal with three opt-out clauses — although presumably not so early in the contract as the offer on which Correa ultimately landed.
Risk-averse detractors will opine that Correa should’ve pounced on the larger guarantee, but with a big season Correa will again enter the market in search of a $300MM+ deal and having already banked $35.1MM in 2022. If he reaches even $240MM on a multi-year deal next winter, in advance of his age-28 season, or a $205MM+ deal after a 2023 opt-out, he’d come out ahead on the entire gambit.
Even in the event that Correa unexpectedly plays all three seasons in Minnesota on this deal, he’d return to the open market in advance of his age-30 season and needing to clear what could very well be an attainable $170MM to top that reported Detroit offer. It’s obviously possible that Correa struggles, gets injured or never reaches that same earning ceiling, but he’s known as a supremely confident player — a mentality that is underscored by taking a deal of this nature.
The incumbent Astros offered Correa five years at a total of $160MM prior to the lockout and, earlier in the week, were said to be prepping a new offer for their longtime star. It’s not yet clear what Houston ultimately put forth, but their initial offer didn’t include any opt-out provisions. If the new offer followed suit in that regard, it’s possible that Correa simply felt that in order to accept a shorter-term deal than the 10-year pact he initially sought, he’d need the opportunity to take another bite at the free-agent apple sooner than later.
Correa’s future trips to the market hinge on how the 2022 and perhaps the 2023 seasons play out, but regardless of when he returns to free agency, he’ll do so with a few advantages. Firstly, he won’t be one of five high-end shortstops on the market, as was the case this year. The combination of Correa, Story, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Javier Baez is regarded as perhaps the greatest collection of free-agent shortstops in history. The talented nature of that group always created the possibility for a game of musical chairs that left one without the contract he sought, but few would have expected Correa to take a short-term deal.
Were Correa to return to the market next winter, he’d do so alongside Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson and perhaps Xander Bogaerts, who can opt out of his contract’s final three years and $60MM. However, Bogaerts’ defensive shortcomings have been increasingly placed under the microscope in recent years, and Swanson has never performed at Correa’s level either offensively or defensively. Turner and Correa certainly have the potential to be seen as 1-A and 1-B on next year’s market, but age is on Correa’s side; he’s more than a year younger than Turner. Furthermore, because Correa received a qualifying offer this winter, he’s now permanently ineligible to receive a second one. The qualifying offer system may yet be done away with entirely — that’s dependent on negotiations surrounding an international draft — but Correa is forever free from draft-pick compensation, regardless.
The other element of the contract to consider is the agency component of it. Correa turned heads by hiring Hollywood talent agency William Morris Endeavor to represent him in Sept. 2019. WME represented him up until midway through this offseason’s MLB lockout, but Correa hired the Boras Corporation to represent him on Jan. 18. There’s little sense speculating on the motivation behind the switch, but the change in representation meant that Correa’s former agents could have staked a claim to the commission from his eventual contract. Whenever Correa returns to the market, be it post-2022, post-2023 or post-2024, his new representation will command the entirety of the commission.
From a pure baseball perspective, the contract is a win both for Correa and for the Twins. Correa can lay claim to a nominal salary record — largest annual value for an infielder — and receive a massive yearly salary while retaining the ability to return to free agency in advance of either his age-28, age-29 or age-30 season.
The Twins, meanwhile, score the largest upgrade available to them on the market, catapulting them back into the conversation in the American League Central. They won’t be considered favorites without securing some additional pitching help, but Correa nevertheless provides radical improvement on both sides of the ball. The magnitude of the pitching upgrades the Twins have up their sleeve will determine their fate in 2022, but if their shocking deal with Correa is any indicator, they’re far from done improving this roster.
Free Agent Notes: Correa, Braves, Story, Tigers, Cueto
The Braves were somewhat surprisingly connected to Carlos Correa prior to the lockout, and the two sides did re-engage to some extent before Correa signed with the Twins, though The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that Atlanta didn’t make Correa an offer. It was actually agent Scott Boras who reached out to the Braves as he was gauging the market for his client, and Rosenthal writes that Boras “floated” the same three-year, $105.3MM deal with two opt-outs that Correa eventually signed with Minnesota.
While nothing came of these negotiations, Rosenthal does wonder if Correa (assuming he opts out) might be a target for the Braves next winter, as incumbent shortstop Dansby Swanson will be a free agent. Signing Correa to a long-term deal would surely require Atlanta GM Alex Anthopoulos to make his biggest expenditure yet, though the Braves will have quite a bit of money coming off the books in the form of Swanson, Kenley Jansen, and depending on club options, Charlie Morton and Will Smith.
More from around the league…
- The Giants and Astros were the other finalists for Trevor Story‘s services, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (Twitter link). Expanding on San Francisco’s interest, NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic writes that the Giants “did recruit him quite a bit,” even if “a few of their people always felt [Story] was headed for Boston.” Among other suitors, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes writes that the Twins discussed multiple contract scenarios with Story but the team’s preference seemed to be a pricey but shorter-term contract, like Minnesota’s eventual three-year, $105.3MM deal with Carlos Correa.
- The Tigers were known to be looking at all of the “big six” free agent shortstops, and signed Javier Baez to a six-year, $140MM deal prior to the lockout. There wasn’t much known about the Tigers’ negotiations with Story, though Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free Press reports that “Story wasn’t interested in the Tigers’ proposed contract structure.” This is an interesting wrinkle considering that Story also got six years and $140MM from the Red Sox, though Baez’s salary is a bit backloaded and he can opt out of the deal following the 2023 season. Story’s deal also has an opt-out decision but not until after the 2025 season, plus the Sox can overwrite Story’s opt-out by exercising a club option for a seventh year.
- In other Tigers news, GM Al Avila told Petzold and other reporters that the club is “done” their major offseason shopping after signing Michael Pineda for the back of the rotation. Detroit had one of the more aggressive and active winters of any club, and Avila and his front office also explored many other options besides the players they did acquire via trades and free agent deals. In regards to the Pineda contract, for instance, the Tigers looked at several other available veterans who ended up signing elsewhere, and Petzold adds that Detroit also considered Johnny Cueto. Last month, MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored Cueto’s free agent case, arguing that the 36-year-old was still a pretty decent option for teams looking for relatively inexpensive rotation depth.
AL Notes: Correa, Tucker, Meadows, Winker, Upton
Before Carlos Correa signed with the Twins, there was some increased buzz that Correa could be staying with the Astros, as Houston was reportedly working on a new contract offer and owner Jim Crane was getting involved in talks. However, in the aftermath of Correa’s departure, The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome hears from two sources that “the Astros were not close to reuniting with their shortstop.”
In fact, the Astros didn’t even make a new offer. According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the Astros “did not budge from” the five-year, $160MM deal the club offered Correa just prior to the opening of the free agent market in November. The exact level of these latest talks between Correa and the Astros aren’t known, but Rome wonders why the team didn’t explore a contract similar to the three-year, $105.3MM pact (with two player opt-outs) that Correa landed from Minnesota, or if such a deal simply wasn’t of interest to the Astros.
More from around the American League…
- In other Astros news, Kyle Tucker told Chandler Rome (Twitter link) that the team had yet to start any talks about a contract extension. There isn’t necessarily any rush for the Astros, as Tucker is still a pre-arbitration player and isn’t eligible for free agency until the 2025-26 offseason. Still, Tucker has been excellent over his two full seasons as an everyday player, and extending him now could help Houston get some cost-certainty over what projects to be some pricey arbitration-eligible seasons for the outfielder.
- The Rays and Phillies have discussed an Austin Meadows trade, according to Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer (Twitter link). Timing may be a factor in this report, since Lauber tweeted the news just hours before the Phillies signed Nick Castellanos, and thus Meadows may no longer be on the team’s radar. Indeed, with Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber now acquired for corner outfield and DH duty, adding a player of a similar profile like Meadows wouldn’t seem all that feasible for Philadelphia, even if Meadows is a better defender (if not a standout) than either of the two free agent sluggers.
- The Guardians “were in on” trying to acquire Jesse Winker from the Reds before Cincinnati dealt the outfielder to the Mariners earlier this week, Paul Hoynes of The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports. Seattle’s ability to absorb Eugenio Suarez‘s contract gave the M’s the edge, as the Guards’ payroll limitations simply wouldn’t make it feasible for them to eat a big contract (plus, Cleveland already has Jose Ramirez at third base). Winker, however, would’ve been a big help for the Guardians’ needs in the outfield, and Cleveland has been rather quiet overall since the end of the lockout, whereas their AL Central rivals have all made significant moves.
- Justin Upton briefly started some prep work as a first baseman last season before a lumbar strain ended his season in September, but the veteran outfielder has again donned a first baseman’s glove in Angels camp this spring, The Orange County Register’s Jeff Fletcher writes. Upton has never played at first base during his entire pro career, though the lower-impact position would theoretically help the 34-year-old to stay healthy, and his right-handed bat would provide a nice complement to left-handed hitting starting first baseman Jared Walsh. After three straight injury-plagued and subpar seasons, Upton is entering the final year of his five-year, $106MM deal with the Angels.
Latest On Carlos Correa’s Market
Carlos Correa remains on the free agent market, as possible suitors like the Yankees, Phillies, Tigers and Rangers have all seemingly decided not to make a serious run at him this offseason. With less than three weeks to go before Opening Day, a resolution on the Correa front seems likely to arrive sooner than later.
The incumbent Astros haven’t abandoned their pursuit. Houston’s initial five-year, $160MM offer to Correa early in the offseason never seemed especially tempting for the star shortstop. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic tweeted earlier this week the Astros were preparing a new offer, noting that players in Houston camp were palpably excited about the possibility the team could bring him back.
Asked about the chances of re-upping Correa this morning, Astros GM James Click demurred (video link from Jason Bristol of KHOU). “It’s not something we’re going to comment on one way or the other,” he said before noting that the recent signing of Niko Goodrum strengthened the club’s overall infield depth. Houston also has veteran Aledmys Díaz and top prospect Jeremy Peña as possible options if Correa heads elsewhere. Skipper Dusty Baker called Peña “the frontrunner” among the in-house players at the position this week (via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).
Former Astros scouting director Mike Elias — an instrumental factor in Houston’s decision to select Correa first overall in the 2012 draft — is now running baseball operations with the Orioles. That has led to some speculation the rebuilding O’s could get into the mix for the two-time All-Star. There hadn’t previously been any firm indication Baltimore was considering such a move, but Rosenthal wrote last night the O’s could contemplate a run at Correa “if his price dropped to a level the club deemed appropriate.”
That’d require a change in tone from Elias’ comments earlier this week, when he said he didn’t anticipate the Orioles signing any players to multi-year contracts. Making an exception for Correa, though, makes some sense. Beyond Elias’ personal familiarity with the shortstop, Correa’s young enough to anchor whatever core with which the O’s emerge from their rebuild. He’s only 27 years old, and while Correa wouldn’t single-handedly make Baltimore a contender this year, he’d presumably remain an excellent player during 2023-24 campaigns when the O’s expect to be competitive.
Correa to Baltimore remains a long shot, and the caveat that it may require his asking price falling is a notable one. Still, Raul Ramos of Con Las Bases Llenas linked the O’s with Correa before Rosenthal’s report, writing the club may even had put an offer on the table. There’ll certainly be more clarity on Correa’s eventual destination fairly soon, particularly with the other star free agent option at the position, Trevor Story, reportedly nearing a decision.
Red Sox Notes: Free Agency, Bogaerts, Payroll
The Red Sox have signed five free agent pitchers — Michael Wacha, James Paxton, Rich Hill, Matt Strahm and Jake Diekman — so far this winter. Their only meaningful change on the position player front, though, was arguably a downgrade in 2022. An hour before the lockout, Boston traded Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers in a deal that brought Jackie Bradley Jr. back to Fenway Park.
While the Sox have yet to pull off a meaningful upgrade to their position player mix, they’ve been at least loosely tied to a few of free agency’s top names. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network suggested this morning they could be in the mix for Freddie Freeman. They’re reportedly among the teams in the running for star NPB outfielder Seiya Suzuki. Before the lockout, reports tied them to each of Carlos Correa and Trevor Story.
There are myriad possibilities the Boston front office could pursue, a fact chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom acknowledged when speaking with reporters yesterday (via Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic). “We talked about this before the lockout … that we do still want to add position players to the group,” Bloom said. “The (Renfroe) trade we made on December 1 kind of flipped our lineup balance a little bit to where we have an opening for a right-handed bat. That said, in this period, especially with so much going on and so many conversations, we want to be nimble enough to take advantage of all opportunities.”
Bloom declined to specify an area of positional target, pointing to the flexibility Enrique Hernández affords the club with his ability to capably man both center field and second base. That’s been reinforced by the wide array of players they’ve reportedly inquired about, but their ties to the top two free agent shortstops are made more difficult by the presence of their All-Star in-house option there.
Speaking with reporters (including Christopher Smith of MassLive) this afternoon, Xander Bogaerts didn’t sound enamored with the possibility of changing positions to accommodate an external addition. “I’m a shortstop, man. That’s where I’ve played my whole career and obviously a position I take a lot of pride in,” the 29-year-old said. “I love being there.” Bogaerts said he and the team haven’t broached the possibility of a position change.
If Bogaerts remains steadfastly against moving off shortstop, that’d complicate any efforts by the Red Sox to make a legitimate push for Correa or Story. Correa is one of the game’s preeminent defenders at the position, coming off a Gold Glove winning campaign. Story is reportedly intent on signing with a team that’ll keep him at shortstop. It seems unlikely at this point that either will sign with a team that’s unwilling to make space for them at the infield’s most demanding position.
Unlike Correa or Story, Bogaerts doesn’t have the freedom to choose a team for 2022. Yet he will have the option of testing the open market next offseason, as he can opt out of the final three years and $60MM on his deal at the end of this season. Given how well he’s played in recent seasons, he’s certainly on a path towards triggering the opt-out, leaving Bloom and his staff to determine whether they want earmark some future funds away for a potential extension. (Star third baseman Rafael Devers is down to his final two years of arbitration control as well).
The Red Sox should have plenty of long-term flexibility, however. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource projects their luxury tax payroll for the 2022 season at $213MM, a fair bit shy of the $230MM base tax threshold. Looking ahead to 2023, a wide swath of post-2022 free agents and a potential Bogaerts opt-out could see that number plummet to just $60MM, leaving plenty of spots to be filled on the team’s active roster and a huge amount of funds with which to fill them. Bloom acknowledged as much, teasing that future financial flexibility “opens more options for us, maybe (more) than we’ve been working with the last couple years.”
Astros Step Up Efforts To Re-Sign Carlos Correa
MARCH 15: Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic says that the Astros plan on making Correa a new offer “shortly.” He adds that the rumors are “creating buzz in camp” and quotes a source as saying “Players can’t stop talking about it.”
MARCH 14: The Astros “have stepped up efforts to bring back Correa to the point where owner team owner Jim Crane is involved,” according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Late Sunday, the door seemingly closed on the Yankees (if it was ever open), as they acquired Isiah Kiner-Falefa from the Twins. Late Sunday, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic speculated about whether Correa could choose to sign a record AAV one-year deal this month, concluding “the idea is not necessarily far-fetched.”
MARCH 13: In another update, Crane tells Mark Berman that the Astros are “in discussions” with Correa’s representatives.
MARCH 11: Free agency is back, and the still-unsigned Carlos Correa will return to the forefront of the market as he angles for a contract north of the 10-year, $325MM deal Corey Seager signed in Texas prior to the lockout. Correa’s former team, the Astros, has yet to completely move on from the possibility of keeping him in Houston. Owner Jim Crane told Mark Berman of FOX 26 in Houston last night that the team plans to circle back to Correa now that the market has reopened (Twitter link).
“I’m sure we’ll engage one more time and we’ll see what happens,” says Crane. “Carlos is a great player. He’s a one-of-a-kind player. I thought we made a good offer before. We’ll see where they’re at on their side. I’m sure we’ll talk to them shortly.”
The prior offer referenced by Crane was reported by Berman back in November to be five years and $160MM — a hefty sum but one that always felt well shy of where Correa’s eventual payday would land. Correa has already reportedly received and rejected a 10-year, $275MM offer from the Tigers, which only serves to underscore the manner in which the ‘Stros would need to substantially alter their own proposal in order to keep him in the fold.
On the subject of that Tigers offer, which came prior to Detroit’s eventual signing of Javier Baez, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi adds some additional context. Detroit not only put forth a guaranteed $275MM sum but also included three opt-out clauses over the life of the deal, in addition to an annual bonus of $10MM for finishing in the top five of MVP voting. Correa’s sights have been more focused on topping Seager and possibly on topping Francisco Lindor‘s $341MM guarantee with the Mets, however. He reportedly sought $330MM or more prior to the lockout.
There’s been some speculation that, in light of a sizable offer from the Tigers, perhaps Detroit could follow the Rangers’ lead and ultimately sign two of the market’s top shortstops this winter. Baez has plenty of experience at second base and third base, and the Tigers’ payroll is largely free and clear once Miguel Cabrera plays out the final two years of his current deal. Baez and fellow offseason signee Eduardo Rodriguez are the only players on the books in 2024 and beyond, and it’s possible that even Baez won’t be around by that point. His contract contains an opt-out clause after the 2023 season.
However, The Athletic’s Jim Bowden reports that Tigers owner Chris Ilitch is not comfortable with another contract of that magnitude hitting the books, which throws some cold water on the possibility of a Baez/Correa double-play tandem. That’s a particularly unsurprising revelation in light of this week’s report that Ilitch was one of four owners who initially voted against even raising the league’s proposed luxury-tax threshold to $220MM. (It eventually landed at $230MM in 2022, and it should be noted that the new CBA was ultimately unanimously approved among the 30 owners.)
Morosi indicates within his column that the Cubs are expected to be among the prominent players for Correa, as they already had plenty of dialogue with his camp prior to the lockout. Of course, Correa switched representation and enlisted the Boras Corporation to represent him during the lockout, so much of that groundwork may need to be redone. The Cubs, like the Tigers, have ample payroll space and could stand to upgrade at shortstop.
Signing Correa, though, wouldn’t really mesh with president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer’s early comments on Chicago’s offseason trajectory. Hoyer dubbed pitching to be the team’s primary focus — the Cubs have since added Wade Miley and Marcus Stroman — and also preached the importance of “spending intelligently.” Generally, Hoyer struck a measured tone when discussing offseason spending. The Stroman contract illustrates that this isn’t a Cubs team looking to completely tear down and tank for multiple years as it did in the run-up to 2016’s World Series crown, but there’s a pronounced difference between signing Stroman on a three-year term and shelling out the decade-long deal and $33MM+ annual salary that Correa is hoping to command.
Free Agent Notes: Rodon, Kikuchi, Correa, Soler
News of the finally-ratified Collective Bargaining Agreement is dominating headlines, with good reason, but some free agent leads had quietly emerged during the final hours of CBA negotiations. Notably, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that the Yankees had requested and received medicals for free agent pitchers Carlos Rodon and Yusei Kikuchi prior to the lockout. Heyman notes that the Yankees have received the medicals of free agent shortstop Carlos Correa as well, though disclaims that the team already has “two good shortstop prospects”, referring to touted youngsters Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza.
It has been speculated for some time that the Yankees minor league depth may impede their run at baseball’s top free agent, but their interest in Rodon and Kikuchi appears more straightforward. Despite possessing a high-upside stable of arms behind Gerrit Cole and Jordan Montgomery, the Bronx rotation has no shortage of risk baked into it. Signing either Rodon or Kikuchi would add a similar high-risk, high-reward pitcher to the mix however, as these free agent targets dealt with injury and ineffectiveness down the stretch, respectively. Still, with a much higher luxury tax threshold to work with clubs like the Yankees are further incentivized to sign as many playoff-caliber arms as they can to see who sticks.
Some more free agent leads to usher in the post-lockout world…
- Piggybacking off of Heyman’s tweet, Darren Wolfson of SKOR North reports that the Twins have received medicals on Rodon and Kikuchi as well. Per Wolfson, the Twins are still searching for “multiple arms, starters and relievers” which should come as little surprise to fans who have followed Minnesota’s offseason to date. A Rodon signing would likely represent an uncharacteristically large splash for the Twins, though it should be noted they’ve shown interest in high-risk pitchers in the past, to say nothing of their interest in Rodon last offseason.
- Another free agent generating buzz is Jorge Soler, who Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports has received interest from more than six clubs. Now that the universal DH has been implemented Feinsand speculates that Soler will see his list of suitors grow. That theory certainly checks out on paper, as Soler has sported a useful 117 OPS+ since 2019, though his glovework during that same stretch has been decidedly below average.
Latest On Carlos Correa
Going into the offseason, there were many parallels between the top two free agents, Carlos Correa and Corey Seager. Both were shortstops reaching free agency at the age of 27 and coming off excellent platform seasons. Seager, along with agent Scott Boras, secured a ten-year, $325MM contract from the Rangers prior to the lockout. Correa, however, did not sign before transactions were frozen and then hired the Boras corporation to represent him in January. Once the lockout is lifted, his continued search for a contract will be one of the top storylines to follow. Joel Sherman of the New York Post takes a look at some of the options, including the Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers and Cubs, while Ken Rosenthal and Corey Brock of The Athletic, look into the fit with the Red Sox and Mariners, respectively.
The Dodgers, of course, had Seager as their shortstop in recent years and just saw him depart for the Rangers. The expectation has been that they were comfortable enough with that loss because they could rely on Trea Turner to take over at short. If the Dodgers were to then pivot to Correa, however, that would likely involve Turner moving over to second base, much like he did when he and Seager were on the roster together after he was acquired from the Nationals at last year’s trade deadline. Since Turner is just one year away from free agency, signing a long-term deal with Correa could be a way to proactively address the shortstop void one year before it’s absolutely necessary. This scenario seems to have been already considered by the Dodgers’ brass, as Sherman reports that they offered Seager a $275MM deal before he signed with the Rangers. However, he also notes that it might not be as simple as swapping Correa in for Seager, as Correa’s role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal might not go over so well with fans of the Dodgers, since they were defeated by that now-infamous team in the 2017 World Series.
That same issue is present with another reported suitor, the Yankees, as they were felled by the Astros in the 2017 ALCS. But Yankees’ general manager Brian Cashman has previously stated that the reaction of the fans “is not going to enter my calculus right now.” Since Gleyber Torres was moved to second base last year, it was expected that the Yankees would be major players in this year’s shortstop market. However, they may be willing to eschew a big splash, preferring to target a short-term stopgap option to hold down the position until it’s taken over by one of their prospects, either Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe. It’s also possible that this is merely a posture for negotiating purposes and that the club may emerge as a genuine suitor for Correa. Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets that they did check in with Correa prior to the lockout, but seemed to prefer Seager. Since Correa was reportedly looking for a contract slightly above what Seager eventually got, it may be difficult for a deal to come together.
The Blue Jays have less of an obvious need for Correa, given the presence of Bo Bichette at short. Sherman opines that the club could sign Correa and then bump Bichette to either second or third, but then downplays the possibility of them dishing out a contract nearing Correa’s asking price. Given the fact that they were reportedly in the mix for Seager prior to the lockout, the possibility can’t be ruled out entirely. The sign-stealing situation clearly isn’t an issue for the Jays, as they’ve already signed George Springer, Correa’s teammate in Houston. But even if they do have the payroll to make a big splash after the lockout, they may use it to make a run at Freddie Freeman instead.
The Tigers have long been considered a speculative fit for Correa, given the fact that their manager is A.J. Hinch, who previously managed Correa in Houston. However, they already made a big investment at shortstop when they signed Javier Baez prior to the lockout. Although Baez played some second base with the Mets last year in deference to Francisco Lindor and could theoretically do the same again, it still would be shocking to see them double down in such an aggressive fashion. Sherman also speculates that the Cubs could be a dark horse here. The club was primarily focused on tearing down last year, trading away most of the core pieces from their previous competitive window, including Baez, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. Since the offseason began, they have been surprisingly active in making additions, bringing on Marcus Stroman, Yan Gomes and Wade Miley. However, those players were all brought aboard with short-term commitments and pivoting to the type of lengthy deal that would be required to sign Correa seems unlikely at this stage.
As for the Red Sox, Rosenthal lays out a scenario where Correa takes over as their shortstop given that his defense is far superior to that of Xander Bogaerts, who could be shuffled over to second base. However, he also points out that, given the lockout-shortened Spring Training to come, there will be less time for Bogaerts to develop his skills at a new position than there would be in a more normal year, perhaps making the plan too awkward to implement successfully. After this season, Bogaerts can opt-out of the three years and $60MM that will be remaining on his contract, something that he seems likely to do if he has another healthy and productive season. Signing Correa now could be a way for Boston to preemptively replace Bogaerts, but as Rosenthal points out, the club hasn’t signed a free agent contract larger than $14MM since Chaim Bloom became the club’s chief baseball officer. Suddenly dropping $300MM on the table would be a huge departure in strategy. However, it’s exactly because of that avoidance of significant commitments that the club’s future payroll is fairly blank. If Bogaerts does indeed opt out after this season, that would leave Chris Sale as the only serious commitment on the books.
For the Mariners, Brock doesn’t believe it likely that there’s a match here. However, he points out that, if Correa is interested in going to Seattle, they have the money to make it happen. The club’s payroll for the year is currently around $87MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. From 2015 to 2019, the club’s annual budget hovered in the $120-160MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That leaves plenty of breathing room, if the club is willing to push up to those spending levels again in an attempt to build on last year’s 90-win campaign. The team’s president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto previously stated that the club wouldn’t supplant J.P. Crawford as the team’s shortstop, but it’s hard to imagine that strategy is so etched in stone that they wouldn’t consider adding a talent like Correa if the stars aligned for them to do so.
Clearly, there are many ways Correa’s market could play out once the lockout ends. With the freezing of transactions and contract negotiations, we can’t really know the intentions of any of these parties until that ice breaks and dominos start falling again. Due to the compressed timeline that will eventually exist between the signing of a new CBA and the start of the season, this will all have to play out in an expedited fashion. And with Boras also representing many other high-profile free agents like Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Michael Conforto, Carlos Rodon and more, that figures to make the situation all the more frenzied.
Mariners On The Hunt For Right-Handed Power Bat
In a profile of Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale outlined the team’s remaining offseason plans, noting specifically that Seattle hopes to add a right-handed power bat (ideally at third to replace the recently retired Kyle Seager) and a left-handed bat in the outfield. In addition to landing 2021 NL All-Star Adam Frazier in a November trade with the Padres, Dipoto already made one of the bigger offseason splashes of the pre-lockout free agent frenzy, inking reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to a five-year, $115MM deal to anchor manager Scott Servais’ rotation.
Given what’s already a relatively crowded outfield picture in Seattle (Mitch Haniger, Jarred Kelenic, 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, and uber-prospect Julio Rodriguez all figure to see significant time there, as could Frazier and former top-100 prospect Taylor Trammell), the outfielder Nightengale suggests Dipoto is targeting is likely to be of the versatile bench-bat sort. Any of Odubel Herrera, Travis Jankowski, Billy Hamilton, Gerardo Parra, Matt Joyce, or Billy McKinney could come without a significant commitment, and Dipoto might check in on Joc Pederson or Eddie Rosario if either is willing to take on a part-time role.
The right-handed power bat is unlikely to come cheaply, however. The obvious option on the current market is Kris Bryant, and it’s no surprise that nary a report on Bryant passes without a prominent reference to the Mariners. Given how much money Dipoto is known to have left to spend — the Mariners, who have one of the youngest rosters in the bigs, have just under $87MM in salary committed to the 2022 roster (per Roster Resource) — Bryant remains a very live possibility, as might Seiya Suzuki (though he’d contribute to the outfield glut). Trevor Story and (perhaps) Carlos Correa could also be on the table.
The presence of incumbent shortstop J.P. Crawford may be a roadblock to a major move at the position, since Dipoto has repeatedly stated that Crawford isn’t changing positions. The Fielding Bible ranked Crawford as the sixth-best defensive shortstop in baseball in 2021, though both Story and Correa ranked higher on that list. With Story reportedly uninterested in a position change and Correa on the hunt for a mega-deal, neither seems likely at this point barring a trade of Crawford for another piece.
With no other clear upgrade over utilityman Abraham Toro on the free agent market, Dipoto is likely to explore trade possibilities should Bryant sign elsewhere. With the A’s reportedly entering a fire sale, Matt Chapman is the obvious first port of call, though he’ll draw widespread interest and will command a small fortune in prospect capital. Seattle could also look to engage the Guardians on Jose Ramirez, though he’d take an even bigger bite out of the Seattle system than Chapman and is well on his way to an enormous payday when he becomes a free agent following the 2023 season. Josh Donaldson, who posted a solid-if-unspectacular .247/.352/.475 line in 135 games with the Twins in 2021, still has plenty of power and isn’t likely to cost much more than a willingness to eat a substantial chunk of the two years and $50MM (including an $8MM buyout of his 2024 option) remaining on his contract. The 2015 AL MVP could be an intriguing upside play, but he’d be a particularly risky bet for a club hoping to catapult into the upper echelons of the American League sooner rather than later.
Regardless of how Dipoto addresses the loss of Seager — indeed, he could well head into Opening Day with Toro manning the hot corner and reexamine the position at the trade deadline — the Mariners are sure to be a hot pick to take a major step forward in 2022 whenever the season gets rolling. After overachieving in 2021 with 90 wins and a spot at the periphery of playoff contention well into the season’s final week, the young M’s will be expected to contend for this year’s AL West title — particularly if, as expected, Correa doesn’t return to Houston. Should they add another big bat, don’t be surprised to see them picked as a dark horse to win a pennant as early as next season.
Quick Hits: Alfonzo, Correa, Clark
Longtime Queens fan-favorite Edgardo Alfonzo has been hired to manage the Staten Island Ferry Hawks of the independent Atlantic League, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The move to Staten Island actually checks a third of New York City’s five boroughs off of Alfonzo’s professional checklist; in addition to his eight seasons playing for the Mets, Alfonso joined the High-A Brooklyn Cyclones in 2014 as Tom Gamboa’s bench coach, eventually managing the Mets affiliate for three seasons following Gamboa’s retirement. He also played briefly for three other New York-area teams: the Long Island Ducks, the Bridgeport Bluefish, the Newark Bears, all also of the Atlantic League.
After eight productive seasons in Queens shuffling between second and third base (and occasionally shortstop), Alfonzo signed a three-year, $18MM deal with the Giants ahead of the 2003 season. He split 2006, his final big-league season, between the Angels and the Blue Jays, logging only 95 plate appearances between the two. For his career, the infielder posted a .283/.357/.425 batting line across twelve major league seasons.
Other news from around the game:
- Slugging shortstop Carlos Correa, MLBTR’s number one free agent, recently hired Scott Boras to represent him as he looks to secure a $300MM+ payday after a new CBA is reached, and Boras doesn’t seem to have ruled out the Astros as the team that could pony up. Though reports are that the Astros’ best offer came in at five years and $160MM and that owner Jim Crane has insisted he won’t go beyond six years with the star free agent, Boras tossed out a few comments clearly pointed at the Houston brass, telling reporters that the Astros have “been at the championship level for three or four years and…can continue for six or seven if they are able to retain those true core pieces of All-Star level talent” (quotes from Mark Berman of Houston’s Fox 26). Correa is reported to have turned down a ten-year, $275MM offer from the Tigers before the lockout. Should Correa be forced to settle for a shorter-term deal, it’s likely he’ll insist on an opt-out clause that would allow him to return to the market as soon as next offseason.
- The Royals have hired former Braves chief of scouting Roy Clark as a senior advisor for baseball operations, the club announced Wednesday. Clark had already been scouting for the Royals in an informal, part-time capacity, but the new role puts him back into the office with Royals president of baseball operations and longtime friend Dayton Moore. Moore actually owes his career in professional baseball to Clark, who recommended him for a scouting job in John Schuerholz’s front office in 1994, when Moore was a coach at George Mason University. Moore was hired as the Royals’ GM in 2006, and Clark left the Braves to join the Nationals in 2009. While with the Braves, Clark had a hand in scouting and signing an impressive roster of future big-leaguers, including Adam Wainwright, Jason Marquis, Brian McCann, Charlie Morton, Craig Kimbrel, Jason Heyward, and Freddie Freeman.