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Carlos Correa

Poll: Carlos Correa’s Contract

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There’s been plenty of speculation as to Carlos Correa’s next destination, and even as the lockout trudges on, some reporting on the interest he’s received to date. The Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Braves and incumbent Astros were all reported to have contacted Correa prior to the lockout, and in recent weeks, ESPN’s Buster Olney reported that the Tigers had put forth a ten-year offer worth $275MM — presumably prior to signing Javier Baez to his six-year, $140MM contract. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score in Chicago wrote yesterday that while there’s mutual interest with the Cubs, the team is loath to commit the length of contract Correa is seeking.

The length of contract Correa is set upon will obviously play a large role in where he ultimately signs. If he’s set on a deal of ten (or more) years in length, the Cubs and Astros seem to be out of the question. If he eventually is willing to take a slightly shorter deal, presumably with a massive annual value, it could open the door a bit further. Some suitors may yet may ramp up their interest or pivot to Correa if they miss out on larger target (e.g. Braves and Freddie Freeman) or if the luxury tax threshold rises substantially in the forthcoming collective bargaining agreement.

Given that he’s hitting the market in advance of his age-27 season, it’s not a surprise to see Correa eyeing deals of ten-plus years in length. And, now that Corey Seager has inked a 10-year deal for $325MM — joining Francisco Lindor and Fernando Tatis Jr. as shortstops with contracts of 10 or more years — Correa is surely hopeful of adding his own name to that prestigious group (if not besting all three in terms of total guarantee).

If the Yankees indeed plan to sit out the market for top shortstops, as has been reported, that’s a sizable blow to Correa’s market. Add that the Dodgers have an excellent in-house option already in Trea Turner and may not want to add a second $300MM contract to the books alongside Mookie Betts, and Correa may have to drum up some interest from teams that haven’t been publicly linked to him just yet.

The Phillies have a need at shortstop but appear more focused on center field and the bullpen. The Mets don’t seem like a fit in terms of roster composition, but owner Steve Cohen has shown a willingness to spend at a nearly unparalleled level. The Blue Jays reportedly pursued Seager before he signed in Texas; would they consider a legitimate pursuit of Correa in the wake of Marcus Semien’s departure? Could the Tigers follow the Rangers’ lead and shock baseball with a double-dip in the shortstop market? The Mariners haven’t been characterized as a suitor just yet, but they have the payroll space and are seeking an impact bat.

As the already slow news cycle winds down during the holiday season, let’s try to make our best guess both as to where Correa will sign and for how much in total dollars…

How large will Correa’s contract be? (poll link for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

Where will Correa sign? (poll link for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

Latest On Cubs’ Interest In Carlos Correa

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There’s no more impactful player remaining on the open market than Carlos Correa. MLBTR’s top free agent entering the offseason, Correa was content to sit out the pre-lockout frenzy. The star shortstop is in position to land easily the biggest deal of the post-lockout period whenever the transactions freeze comes to an end. It stands to reason he and his representatives will try to top the ten-year, $325MM deal Corey Seager landed with the Rangers last month.

Reports have linked Correa to a few teams this winter, with some perhaps unexpected suitors hopping into the mix. The incumbent Astros, Cubs, Braves, Tigers, Red Sox, Dodgers and Yankees were all linked to the two-time All-Star in some capacity. To what extent those clubs will reengage with Correa coming out of the lockout remains to be seen. The Tigers have already landed Javier Báez on a nine-figure deal. The Astros might be reluctant to go beyond six guaranteed years, and multiple reports have indicated the Yankees are content to rely on a stopgap pick-up at shortstop with a pair of well-regarded prospects (Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe) not far away from MLB readiness.

The Cubs’ reported entrance into the Correa bidding also registered as something of a surprise, given their recent spending habits. Chicago has kicked off an organizational reboot over the past few months, dropping player payroll from 2019’s franchise-record $203MM outlay (estimate via Cot’s Baseball Contracts). Early in the offseason, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer cautioned against the possibility of “winning” the offseason and expressed a desire to spend opportunistically. None of that portended an earnest pursuit of the market’s top free agent.

To their credit, the Cubs’ early offseason approach has already been fairly active. Chicago claimed Wade Miley off waivers from the Reds, taking on a $10MM salary in the process. They signed Yan Gomes to a two-year, $13MM guarantee. And in their biggest splash of the offseason to date, Chicago landed Marcus Stroman on a three-year, $71MM deal that contains an opt-out possibility after the 2023 campaign.

The Cubs’ first couple months of activity at least suggests it’s not a full rebuild, a sentiment Hoyer has expressed on a few occasions. The major league roster still looks short of immediate contention, but it also doesn’t seem the Cubs are hoping to idle near the bottom of the National League for the next few years in hopes of collecting high draft choices. Even if 2022 proves to be a down year, the front office could have their sights set on being competitive within the season or two thereafter.

There’s a case to be made for the Cubs to make a strong run at Correa, who just turned 27 in September. He’ll still be in his prime whenever the team is better prepared to contend, and one need look no further than the Rangers’ signing of Seager as an example of a current non-contender jumping early to sign an impact player to a long-term deal. A Correa mega-deal would be in a different financial stratosphere than any of the Cubs’ moves this winter, though, and it remains to be seen if the organization’s willing to make that level of commitment.

The Cubs apparently continue to have some amount of interest in that possibility. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score hears the organization may be willing to meet the $30MM+ in annual salary that Correa’s likely to command. However, he hears that the Cubs could balk at an especially long-term commitment, writing that “they’d rather not go 10 years in length.” Whether the reluctance to offer a decade’s worth of guarantees is a matter of preference or a firm organizational mandate isn’t clear, nor is the length of a proposal the front office would be more comfortable putting forth.

If the Cubs prove completely unwilling to go to ten years, it’d be difficult for Correa to top Seager’s $325MM guarantee in Chicago. Even over a nine-year term, getting to $325MM would require a $36.11MM average annual salary that’d be a record for a position player. It’s not clear whether Correa would be willing to sacrifice a year or two at the back of a deal in order to land a record-breaking AAV, although he’s reportedly already passed on offers of $160MM over five years (from the Astros) and $275MM over ten years (from the Tigers).

There’s no question he’ll have myriad options from which to choose once the sport’s business resumes. Correa is coming off a fifth-place finish in AL MVP balloting on the heels of a .279/.366/.485 line (134 wRC+) paired with Gold Glove defense. Of equal importance, he avoided the injured list (aside from a brief stay related to COVID-19) en route to 640 plate appearances over 148 games. That marked Correa’s heaviest workload since 2016, helping to assuage concerns clubs may have had after he was limited to 294 games between 2017-19 (98 per season) by thumb, back and rib issues.

Which 2022 Draft Picks Have Teams Gained And Lost From Qualifying Offer Free Agents

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Of the 14 free agents to receive qualifying offers this winter, nine have already figured out where they will be playing next season, leading to some noteworthy adjustments to the 2022 draft order.  For a refresher on the QO rules, you can check this list of what signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent would cost each team, or this list of what teams receive as compensation for losing a QO-rejecting free agent.

Or, for simplicity’s sake, you could just read this post right here as a quick summary of the extra picks gained and lost due to these signings.  First of all, four of the nine signed players don’t factor into the discussion, since they are back with their former teams — Brandon Belt accepted the Giants’ qualifying offer in the first place, while Raisel Iglesias re-signed with the Angels, Chris Taylor re-signed with the Dodgers, and Justin Verlander re-signed with the Astros.

For the five other signed QO free agents and the five unsigned QO free agents, here is the breakdown of what their former teams would receive as compensatory picks.  The specific order of the compensatory picks is based on the previous year’s record, so the team with the fewer wins would get the superior pick.

  • Extra pick after Round 1 of the draft: This is awarded to a team that receives revenue-sharing funds, and whose QO-rejecting free agent signs with another team for more than $50MM in guaranteed salary.  The Rockies and Reds would therefore each qualify if Trevor Story (Colorado) or Nick Castellanos (Cincinnati) signed for $50MM+.  Since the Reds had the better record between the two teams, the Rockies would pick 32nd overall and the Reds 33rd overall if both clubs indeed ended up in this same category.  If Story and/or Castellanos signed for less than $50MM, Colorado and/or Cincinnati would be in the next group…
  • Extra pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3: Four picks have already been allotted within this group, comprised of teams who don’t receive revenue sharing funds.  The Mets received an extra selection when Noah Syndergaard signed with the Angels, the Blue Jays received two picks when Marcus Semien signed with the Rangers and Robbie Ray signed with the Mariners, and the Red Sox got a pick when Eduardo Rodriguez signed with the Tigers.  Like Toronto, the Mets could also receive a second pick if Michael Conforto signed elsewhere.  The Braves (Freddie Freeman) and Astros (Carlos Correa) would also land in this category if their respective QO free agents left town.  The draft order of this sandwich round based on 2021 record would line up as Mets (77 wins), Braves (88 wins), Blue Jays (91 wins), Red Sox (92 wins), and Astros (95 wins).  For the moment, the four picks in this group represent the 75th-79th overall selections in the draft, though that specific order will be altered based on where the other QO players sign, or what other second-round picks might be surrendered as penalties for signing those free agents.
  • Extra pick after Round 4: For teams that lose a QO free agent but exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021, their compensatory pick is pushed back to beyond the fourth round.  Therefore, this is where the Dodgers will make their extra pick in the wake of Corey Seager’s deal with the Rangers.

Moving on, here is what the four teams who have signed QO free agents had to give up in draft capital…

  • Second-highest 2022 draft pick, $500K in international signing pool money: The Angels didn’t receive revenue sharing funds, and didn’t exceed the luxury tax in 2021.  As a result, signing Syndergaard will cost the Angels their second-round draft selection and a chunk of their funds for the next international signing period.
  • Third-highest 2022 draft pick: The Mariners and Tigers fall into this category, as teams who received revenue sharing payments in 2021.  For Seattle, this is simply their third-round selection.  For Detroit, their “third-highest pick” won’t be determined until MLB establishes the order for this year’s Competitive Balance Draft.  Depending on which of the two CBD rounds the Tigers are drawn into, their cost for the Rodriguez contract could either be their second-rounder or their pick in Competitive Balance Round B.
  • Both their second AND third-highest 2022 draft picks, and $500K in international signing pool money: The Rangers splurged by signing both Seager and Semien, and thus faced twice the draft penalty (both their second-round and third-round picks) for landing a pair of QO free agents.  Texas would have faced the same penalty as the Angels if it had signed just one of Seager or Semien.
  • Second- and fifth-highest 2022 draft picks, $1MM in international signing pool money: The stiffest penalty is reserved for teams who exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season.  Therefore, only the Dodgers and Padres would have to give up multiple picks to sign a single QO free agent, which would surely influence any efforts on their part to pursue Correa, Freeman, Conforto, Story, or Castellanos.

Latest On Carlos Correa’s Market

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Carlos Correa entered the offseason as the top name on most free-agent rankings — including here at MLBTR — and remains unsigned as MLB and the MLBPA navigate a lockout that certainly doesn’t look anywhere near a resolution. There’s been plenty of discussion and speculation as to where he’ll ultimately land, but ESPN’s Buster Olney sheds some light on interest that Correa has already received, reporting that the Tigers put forth a 10-year, $275MM offer at one point this winter.

Presumably, that offer came before Detroit signed Javier Baez at six years and $140MM, although it’s at least possible to see how Detroit could make room for both players on the roster and payroll alike. It’s a notable offer, to be sure, but it’s also $66MM shy of what Francisco Lindor received from the Mets, $50MM shy of Corey Seager’s deal with the Rangers and a ways south of the range many pundits projected heading into free agency.

The reported Detroit offer also further underlines that the Astros’ recent offers to Correa are well shy of meeting the mark. Houston was said to have put forth an offer of five years and $160MM just prior to free agency, but that seemed like a nonstarter from the jump. Olney writes that Astros owner Jim Crane has told colleagues that he won’t make an offer of more than six years in length, which only reinforces the expectation that Correa is likely to sign with a new team for the 2022 season.

Of course, the burning question for most MLB fans and onlookers is a simple one: “where?” The Rangers nabbing a pair of high-end shortstops (Seager and Marcus Semien), on the surface, should have strengthened Correa’s market. Two of his top competitors signing with the same team should have kept another spot open elsewhere. However, the Tigers have signed Baez to that aforementioned six-year deal, and the Yankees — at least according to multiple pre-lockout reports — weren’t interested in the top-of-the-market shortstops, instead preferring shorter-term options to serve as a bridge to prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza.

It remains plausible that the Yankees and several other big-market teams will more aggressively jump into the market post-lockout, once a (presumably) new luxury-tax threshold is set in stone. Olney hears from some agents who believe the Yankees and Dodgers could engage in the market for stars like Correa or Trevor Story once the forthcoming luxury tax structure is known. Those players’ representatives are surely hoping that will be the case, although even if the Yankees, Dodgers, etc. choose to eschew a mega-deal, that shouldn’t necessarily leave Correa out in the cold.

Houston’s interest will remain in place, barring a signing of Story or the acquisition of another notable infielder. Mark Berman of Fox 26 reported earlier this month that each of the Red Sox, Cubs and Braves have also been in contact with Correa’s representatives at some point during the offseason. When those clubs reached out and the extent of each respective team’s interest isn’t clear, but it stands to reason at least some of that group will reengage with Correa’s reps whenever the transaction freeze ends.

That’s a nice “safety net” (for lack of a better term), and as the Braves’ and Cubs’ reported interest reflects, unexpected suitors tend to emerge for players at the top of the market. Few gave the Padres legitimate consideration when Manny Machado hit the market following the 2018 season, for instance. Broadly speaking, the top free agent each winter tends to get paid, particularly when said player is atypically young to reach the market — as is the case with the 27-year-old Correa. It’d be entirely unsurprising for other unexpected teams to join the bidding, viewing Correa as a rather unique opportunity to add an All-Star-caliber player who remains squarely in his prime.

Correa is coming off one of the best seasons of his career, having hit .279/.366/.485 with 26 home runs across 640 plate appearances. That offensive production was 34 points above the league average, by measure of wRC+, and it came over Correa’s biggest workload since 2016. Advanced defensive metrics were also particularly high on his work on the other side of the ball, for which he received his first Gold Glove award en route to a fifth-place finish in AL MVP voting.

Latest On Carlos Correa’s Market

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With MLB implementing a lockout yesterday, it will likely be some time until fans learn the fate of the sport’s presently unsigned free agents. Per the parameters of the lockout, teams are unable to contact players or make any transactions during this period. Touted by many as the best player on the free agent market, Carlos Correa will have his eventual contract delayed as well, though that doesn’t mean he won’t have his fair share of suitors when the lockout concludes. Prior to yesterday’s announcement, Mark Berman of Fox 26 (KRIV) tweeted a list of teams Correa’s camp has been contacted by at some point this offseason. The Astros and Yankees were teams already known to have reached out, but Berman adds the Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, and Braves to the mix as well.

At first glance, some of these newly reported teams may seem like imperfect landing spots for a shortstop who will command a 9-figure salary. Then again, it’s hard to fault any big market team for performing due diligence on a high caliber player like Correa. It’s not presently known when these teams contacted Correa’s agent or how serious these check-ins were, but any team even passingly reported as having communications with Correa’s camp could clue fans into where the star shortstop will end up signing.

Starting alphabetically with one of the more curious fits, Atlanta concluded it’s pennant-winning season with Dansby Swanson entrenched at the shortstop position. While Swanson didn’t quite replicate his production from 2020, he did pop a personal-best 27 home runs and provided defense that was generally regarded as passable or better. The 27-year-old will enter 2022 under his last year of team control, however, perhaps creating a scenario where Correa is signed and Swanson is peddled to a team still in search of a new shortstop. Any movement from Atlanta on the Correa market would likely come after there’s resolution (or, in order to afford Correa, a breakdown) on the Freddie Freeman front.

Boston ended 2021 with a prominent name at shortstop as well, Xander Bogaerts. The 29-year-old Bogaerts continues to rate as one of the league’s more consistent run producers, winnning his fourth Silver Slugger award after a .295/.370/.493 (127 OPS+) showing. Like Swanson in Atlanta, Bogaerts may find himself in his last year of team control if he opts out of the remaining three years on his contract like he is widely expected to do. A Correa pursuit would require some infield shuffling, but would make for an imposing addition to an already strong Red Sox lineup. It would also provide cover for a Bogaerts departure while drastically increasing infield defense.

Chicago has less standing in the way of a Correa run than the previous two teams, as they have the payroll space and an acute need for more offense. Nico Hoerner projects as the current Cubs shortstop following the midseason Javier Baez trade, and to his credit he acquitted himself well to the position. As solid as the former first-rounder was through 44 games though, batting .302/.382/.369 (105 OPS+), he’s only a year removed from a 57 OPS+ showing in a similar amount of games. Hoerner is also defensively adept enough that he could slide to any number of other positions to make room for the more powerful Correa. It remains to be seen if the Cubs are willing to spend additional funds to inch back towards competitiveness or if the Marcus Stroman signing will be their signature offseason acquisition.

Lastly, LA serves as an intriguing landing spot for the All-Star Correa. Like other teams here, the Dodgers have a strong shortstop already in place— Trea Turner. The speedy Turner though can play second base, allowing second basemen Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux to operate in the utility-type roles in which they’ve grown accustomed. One question for the Dodgers front office, however, is if they’d be willing to spend upwards of $300MM on a shortstop when they just let their last superstar shortstop leave for a similarly rich contract. There’s also the 4-year-old elephant in the room, the 2017 World Series in which Correa’s Astros infamously defeated the Dodgers. It’s unlikely any still-lingering weirdness would tank mutual interest (money tends to do the most talking in free agency, after all), but it could serve as a dealbreaker in the event another team were to pursue Correa with the same amount of fervor.

Tigers, Javier Baez Have Had Recent Contract Talks

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The Tigers have and free-agent shortstop Javier Baez have discussed a contract within the past few days, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports (via Twitter). ESPN’s Buster Olney adds that the Tigers are currently “focused” on Baez after previously talking to both Carlos Correa and Marcus Semien. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic also tweets the Tigers and Baez are having discussions, though he also emphasizes that there’s no deal in place.

It’s not the first time the two sides have been connected, but recent talks between the two parties are nevertheless notable — particularly given various reports and industry speculation that Baez could push to sign somewhere prior to the expiration of the collective bargaining agreement next week.

Detroit has been repeatedly linked to Correa for months now, though at least some of that stems from the fact that Tigers manager AJ Hinch knows Correa well from their time together in Houston. General manager Al Avila began the offseason by stating that his team needed both a starting pitcher and a shortstop while simultaneously emphasizing that the club would not “spend like drunken sailors.” This week, speaking at Eduardo Rodriguez’s introductory press conference, Avila struck a similar tone (links via Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press and Evan Woodberry of MLive.com).

“One big splash does not win you the offseason,” Avila said, adding that there was never going to be a free agent who could singlehandedly make the Tigers into a contender.

“Obviously, we want to get into the playoffs,” Avila said Tuesday, “but we have to be careful as we move forward. … We have to make sure we can field a good 26-man roster. It’s going to be a measured process. We’re going to be very careful in how we do it.”

It’s important to note that said quotes certainly don’t eliminate the possibility of Detroit beating the market to sign Correa or fellow top free agent Corey Seager. Even with Rodriguez aboard, the Tigers have minimal long-term commitments on the books. Tucker Barnhart and Robbie Grossman are signed through 2022. Miguel Cabrera and Jonathan Schoop are signed through 2023. Rodriguez is the only Tiger signed beyond that 2023 season.

That said, if Detroit truly is focused on employing a more “measured” approach, a shorter-term deal for Baez, Semien or Trevor Story would fit the bill. The combination of Rodriguez and any one of that trio would very likely cost less than signing either Correa or Seager on his own, while still providing considerable upgrades over the 2021 roster.

It was an up-and-down season in 2021 for Baez, who’ll turn 29 the day the CBA expires. After a solid first month at the plate, he alternated between brilliant numbers (May, July, September) and awful numbers (June, August) on a month-by-month basis. Notably, he finished out the year with his hottest streak of the season: .347/.426/.554 with five homers and six doubles in 115 September/October plate appearances. Perhaps more encouraging was the fact that following his trade to the Mets, Baez walked at a 7.0% clip that would represent a career-best, while his strikeout rate dropped from 36.3% with the Cubs to a somewhat more manageable 28.5%.

The ups and downs come with the territory for Baez, who’s known as a streaky hitter, but the end result this season was a .265/.319/.494 batting line and 31 homers. That would be an overwhelming upgrade for a Tigers team that saw its shortstops combine to post an awful .201/.275/.321 batting line — and that’s before considering Baez’s status as plus defensive shortstop and plus baserunner.

Baez ostensibly has a fairly wide market in free agency, as he’s also been linked to the Mariners, Rangers, Red Sox, Yankees and the incumbent Mets — albeit to varying extents.

Yankees “Monitoring” Rather Than Pursuing Top Free Agent Shortstops?

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The Yankees have a stated need at shortstop and have already been in touch with several of the biggest names in the free agent shortstop market, and yet it isn’t yet clear if the Bronx Bombers are actually planning to make such a big signing.  The New York Daily News’ Matthew Roberson wrote earlier this week that the Yankees were planning to focus on other needs rather than spend big at shortstop since prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza are a year or two away from the majors, and Joel Sherman of The New York Post offers a similar sentiment today, though with a caveat.

According to agents and rival executives, Sherman says the Yankees are less full-on participating in the shortstop market than they are “monitoring” the situation and “waiting to see if a market collapses, in which case they might still swoop in to try to sign one.”  For instance, in the event of a league-wide transactions freeze following the expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1, free agents would be in limbo until the freeze was lifted, possibly leading to a sudden surge of deals during Spring Training.  This could create a rushed scenario where one of the top five free agent shortstops can’t find an acceptable long-term deal and could be open to a one-year deal from the Yankees — perhaps akin to the one-year, $25MM pact the Bombers offered Justin Verlander before he re-signed with the Astros.

Even if none of the “big five” shortstops are available at such a price, waiting until later in the offseason might also open up more trade possibilities for the Yankees at the position, Sherman notes.  In any sense, it doesn’t appear that New York is willing to make a long-term commitment at shortstop, and if a multi-year mega-deal is struck, it might be a contract extension for a known quantity like Aaron Judge.

If the Yankees did extend Judge and add prominent names to the rotation or at other positions (i.e. first base or center field), Bronx fans might be satisfied with the team opting to acquire a lesser shortstop than any of Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Javier Baez, or Trevor Story.  Then again, for a fanbase used to their team splurging on premium talents, sitting out this star-studded market when shortstop is such a clear need probably won’t be received all that well no matter what other players join the roster.  It also puts extra pressure on Volpe and Peraza to produce, as while the duo are highly-regarded minor leaguers, Sherman notes that the Yankees haven’t gotten consistent results from many of their top homegrown position players in recent years.

The December 1 CBA date has added plenty of extra uncertainty and urgency to this year’s offseason market.  Last week, ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote that Seager and Semien could be among the players more eager to get a new deal finalized before the CBA expires.  In in the nine days since Passan’s report, there hasn’t been any inkling that Seager or Semien are particularly close to a contract, though multiple teams (including the Yankees) have been known to be interested in both players.  Of the prominent free agents who have already signed contracts, the majority have been pitchers — Brandon Belt is the only position player within MLBTR’s top 50 free agent list that has already put pen to paper, accepting the Giants’ qualifying offer.

One or more of the top shortstops leaving the market would certainly have an effect the Yankees’ plans to wait out a freeze, but even all of the five big names signing elsewhere might not do much to impact what ultimately might be something of a “plan B” for the team.  If anything, a February signing flurry might allow New York to obtain a stopgap shortstop (their bridge to Volpe and Peraza) at a lesser price, since non-elite free agents are likely to be more heavily affected by a freeze than the names at the top of the market.

Tigers, Rangers Showing Interest In Marcus Semien

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Many people inside and outside the industry have long predicted the Tigers as the eventual landing spot for top free agent shortstop Carlos Correa. The calculus to get him there is relatively straightforward. The Tigers have the clearest need in the league at shortstop. They are an up-and-coming team with a relatively clear financial ledger. There’s a clear interpersonal link with manager A.J. Hinch having managed Correa in Houston.

Everything adds up – except that the Tigers aren’t planning on putting all their free agent dollars in a single basket, making Javier Baez or Marcus Semien more likely targets for Detroit, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network, (via Twitter). The Tigers already made a significant financial investment to Eduardo Rodriguez, so there’s certainly some logic to Detroit targeting the mid-tier free agent shortstops.

The Rangers are also showing interest in Semien, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network (via Twitter). If the Rangers can add a top shortstop, Isiah Kiner-Falefa could move back to third base, where he previously won a gold glove award. Texas has also shown interest in Corey Seager and Trevor Story. Texas is reportedly willing to spend upwards of $200MM for the right guy, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.

Semien, at 31, is presumably looking for a shorter-term deal that Correa, who can reasonably expect a deal in the $200-300MM range. Semien’s deal, while significant, will presumably fall far short of that range, even after a 7.3 rWAR season. MLBTR predicted Correa to get more than double Semien in terms of raw dollars ($320MM over ten for Correa, $138MM over six for Semien).

The Blue Jays, of course, continue to have interest in a reunion with Semien, though their needs are flexible enough that a bidding war could push them in a different direction. Like the Tigers, the Jays have already spent significant money this winter in the form of a reasonable extension for Jose Berrios.

Carlos Correa Meets With Tigers Manager A.J. Hinch

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Longtime Astros shortstop Carlos Correa — MLBTR’s top-ranked free agent — was spotted having breakfast with Tigers manager A.J. Hinch at a Houston cafe on Thursday morning (photo taken by Astros blogger Zach Hablinski). Hinch was, of course, Correa’s manager in Houston from 2015 to 2019.

It’d be dangerous to read too much into the meeting. Beyond his previous relationship with Hinch, Correa is widely considered the top free agent this winter and is likely to meet with quite a few teams. Still, it’s easy to draw the connection between the two-time All-Star and the club. The Tigers have made it very clear they intend to open their pocketbook this winter, and Correa makes lots of sense for a club with money to spend and a desire to push themselves into a contention window. Indeed, the Tigers, who have already added starter Eduardo Rodriguez (the biggest free agent signing of the winter so far) and catcher Tucker Barnhart, are widely expected to be among the most active teams.

Were Correa to make his way to Detroit, he’d less upgrade than revolutionize the Tigers’ outlook at the position. The position was something of a black hole for the club in 2021; Niko Goodrum, Zack Short, and Harold Castro each saw significant time, but none came particularly close to even league-average production. Each of the three (particularly Goodrum) has enough positional versatility to provide some value, but none are likely to be in the Tigers’ long-term plans. Combined with the acquisitions of Rodriguez and Barnhart, adding Correa wouldn’t necessarily vault the Tigers (who finished eight games below .500 in 2021) into contention, but he’d clearly make a team with a lot of promising young starting pitching better for years to come.

Very much in the prime of his career as he enters his age-27 season, Correa is coming off a platform year that saw him slash .279/.366/.485 (not to mention an astounding 20 Defensive Runs Saved) that more or less matches his career .277/.356/.481 line. Given both his offensive pedigree and his stellar glovework at a premium position he’ll likely be able to play for years to come, Correa is a pretty safe bet to demand a contract that at least approaches the market-setting 10-year, $341MM extension the Mets gave Francisco Lindor just ahead of this year’s Opening Day. MLBTR projects he’ll ultimately sign for $320MM over ten years.

Though any effect it will have on his market will be negligible, whichever team signs Correa will be required to forfeit a draft pick, as he received (and rejected) a qualifying offer from the Astros. Only the handful of teams shopping in free agency’s premium aisle will have a shot at getting his name on the dotted line, but the Tigers will hardly be alone in pursuing his signature. The Yankees — who’ve made clear they intend to replace Gleyber Torres at shortstop — have explicitly put to rest any speculation that they’d avoid Correa due to fan resentment stemming from his role in the 2017 sign-stealing scandal, and will have plenty of money to spend after dipping below the luxury tax threshold in 2021. Beyond the Tigers and Yankees, MLBTR lists the Phillies, Rangers, Angels, Mariners, and Cardinals as potential suitors in the Correa sweepstakes.

Latest On Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien

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The deadline for players issued qualifying offers to decide on whether or not to accept has now passed, with Brandon Belt of the Giants being the only one out of the group of 14 to accept and return to his previous team. That means the 13 players who turned down the $18.4MM offer are now attached to draft pick forfeiture, including Carlos Correa. Of course, a player of Correa’s skill level won’t see his market greatly affected by a detail like that. In fact, MLBTR recently placed the star shortstop at the top of this year’s list of free agents and projected that he would land a contract of $320MM over ten years, despite the qualifying offer.

Another thing that apparently won’t stand in his way is any lingering resentment out of the Yankee organization in regard to the 2017 Astros sign-stealing scandal. It has been speculated by some people that the Yankees may not want to make a high profile acquisition of Correa, given he was a member of that now-infamous team, which defeated the Yankees in the ALCS before going on to beat the Dodgers in the World Series. But the Yankees decision makers have made comments that seem to suggest it won’t be an issue for them.

When asked if the scandal would play a role in how the team views Correa, Boone said “No,” per Dan Martin of the New York Post, but did acknowledge that the players would have to feel the same way. “Anytime we’re involved in a free agent that’s of large significance and will attract a lot of years and dollars, we’re all gonna feel really good about it.” The article also relays a statement general manager Brian Cashman made last week, saying, “Things like [fan or player sentiment are] not part of that process.”

Hal Steinbrenner evidently feels similar, as Jeff Passan of ESPN relays a quote from the team’s managing partner. “I think most people have moved on from that,” he said. “I mean, I think it’s only healthy to move on from things like that instead of stewing on it year after year. But, you know, people have the opinion that they want to have about that particular player. But, in general, we’re going to look at every single option. It’s the same thing we do every year.”

That’s surely good news for Correa, as he and his representatives will want as many teams in the bidding as possible, especially historically big spenders such as the Yankees. The club is certainly a fit for a shortstop, since moving Gleyber Torres to second base in September. However, they may opt not to make a long commitment to Correa, or any of the other highly-touted free agent shortstops, on account of prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe. “No question that factors in because we do feel in Peraza and Volpe we do have two long-time impact big-league players,’’ said Boone. “We’re excited about those players and believe they are real. That factors into any decisions the organization and [Cashman] make.”

Volpe is generally regarded above Peraza by prospect evaluators, as he is ranked the 18th prospect in all of baseball by FanGraphs, 22nd by Baseball America and 15th by MLB Pipeline, whereas Pereza comes in 48th for FanGraphs and 58th for both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. However, Volpe has only climbed as far as High-A in the Yankees’ system, meaning he’s unlikely to be an option for the big league club in the short term. Peraza, on the other hand, played most of 2021 at Double-A and finished the season with eight games at Triple-A, making it at least feasible that the club decides to forego a big expenditure at the position, although it’s also possible that’s just posturing for negotiating purposes.

Elsewhere around the league, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times doesn’t see the Mariners as a fit for Correa, based on the contract length. He reports that it’s believed Correa is trying to get within range of Francisco Lindor’s $341MM ten-year extension or “at least an 8- to 9-year deal with an average of $30 million per season and an opt-out clause.” Divish opines that Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto may not want to sign a contract of quite that length, based on his personal experiences trying to work around contracts like that, citing the Albert Pujols contract from Dipoto’s time in Anaheim as well as the Robinson Cano contract that was already on the books when he came to Seattle.

Marcus Semien, however, could be a better fit for the Mariners. He’s almost exactly four years older than Correa – 31 and 27, respectively – meaning he won’t be able to demand a contract of quite the same length. MLBTR predicted he could garner a contract of $138MM over six years, an average annual value of $23MM. But Divish has a different framing on the situation, saying, “The thinking is that the Mariners might have to offer him a five-year, $140-$150 million contract to keep him from going to San Francisco or New York on a four-year deal.”

$150MM over five years would be $30MM per season and make Semien one of the highest-paid players in the game by average annual value, which would be an incredible feat considering that he had to settle for a one-year, $18MM contract with the Blue Jays when he was a free agent a year ago. Like Correa, he also turned down a qualifying offer this week and will now be tied to draft pick forfeiture.

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