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Carlos Carrasco

Yankees Unlikely To Pursue Trade In Wake Of Frankie Montas Injury

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It was reported yesterday that Yankees right-hander Frankie Montas will require shoulder surgery, keeping him out of action for most or perhaps all of the upcoming season. That led to some speculation that the club could try to make a trade for a replacement, but Andy Martino of SNY reports that no serious consideration of a trade has taken place and that the club will instead turn to internal replacements like Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt.

Per Martino’s report, there are a couple of reasons why the club is leaning in this direction. One factor is that they still have a strong front four even without Montas, which is certainly true. Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón would be in the discussion for the best one-two punch of any rotation in the league, while Luis Severino and Nestor Cortes provide the club with solid options for the next two slots.

That leaves the club in okay shape on paper, though another injury could quickly change that perception. Cortes is already hurt, dealing with a hamstring strain that caused him to withdraw from the World Baseball Classic, though he’s expected to be ready to go around Opening Day. Severino hardly pitched in the 2019-2021 stretch due to various injuries but managed to make 19 starts last year, though he did still make a trip to the 60-day injured list due to a lat strain. Rodón has largely been healthy the past two years but has had lengthy injury absences before, hardly pitching at all in 2019 or 2020.

By sticking with what they already have on the roster, the club is showing a lot of faith in that group to stay healthy, as well as believing in Germán and Schmidt. The former posted a 3.61 ERA in 72 1/3 innings last year, with a strong 6.4% walk rate but a subpar 19.5% strikeout rate. Schmidt had a 3.12 ERA in 57 2/3 innings with a 9.7% walk rate and 23.7% strikeout rate.

While believing in their players is one factor, Martino adds that the second factor is the club’s reluctance to cross the final luxury tax threshold, something that has come up in previous reports. Their current competitive balance tax figure is $292.48MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource, within a hair of the $293MM line. Going over it would lead to higher tax rates but no further penalties related to draft picks or things of that nature.

It doesn’t seem as though there’s absolutely no scenario in which the Yanks would cross that line. Martino reports that they did discuss Carlos Carrasco with the Mets this offseason. However, that was when it seemed as though the latter club was going to sign Carlos Correa and they wanted to move some salary off their books, such as the $14MM owed to Carrasco this year. Martino’s report indicates that once the Correa deal fell through and he signed with the Twins, Carrasco was no longer available.

Another path that the club gave some consideration to was Michael Wacha, as Joel Sherman of The New York Post reports that the Yankees checked in on him. However, he’s now off the board, having signed with the Padres this week.

It seems the team has some willingness to add another player under the right circumstances, but the desire to do so doesn’t appear very high. Free agency still features guys like Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer, whereas the trade market could theoretically have Chris Flexen and Adrian Houser on the block. It’s said that one phone call can quickly change things, but it seems the team is planning to lean on players already in the organization.

It’s a path that’s not without its risk, since the club has subtracted from its starting depth in recent years. Pitchers like Roansy Contreras, Jordan Montgomery, Hayden Wesneski, JP Sears and Ken Waldichuk and others have been dealt away over the past few seasons. The group still on the roster is strong for now but general manager Brian Cashman is aware the depth is shakier than usual. “We have a strong frontline and then obviously the next wave isn’t as strong as it has been in the past,” Cashman said to Sherman. “We need what we currently have to stay active and over the course of time, some alternative depth options might present themselves.” As they gear up for another battle in the cutthroat AL East, time will tell if they have the pieces to repeat as division champions.

Mets Listening To Trade Offers On Carlos Carrasco

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The Mets are listening to trade offers on right-hander Carlos Carrasco, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post. There’s nothing to indicate that a deal is particularly close or that the Mets are actively shopping him, but the fact that they are open to a deal is noteworthy.

The Mets’ rotation has been in a constant state of flux over the past couple of months. Once the 2022 season ended, Max Scherzer was the only member of the group locked in for 2023. Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker all reached free agency, while the club had an option on Carrasco’s services. Given all of that uncertainty, it wasn’t shocking that the Mets went for Carrasco’s $14MM option instead of the $3MM buyout. They still had plenty of work to do, but they at least went into the offseason with two rotation spots spoken for instead of just one.

Much has changed since that time, with deGrom, Bassitt and Walker signing with the Rangers, Blue Jays and Phillies, respectively. The Mets gave a qualifying offer to deGrom and Bassitt, meaning they will receive draft picks as compensation. To make up for those departures, the club replaced them by giving Justin Verlander $86.66MM (plus a potential player option), giving Kodai Senga $75MM and José Quintana $26MM.

Despite throwing all that money around to add to their rotation, it appears the club is now willing to consider a subtraction. Per Sherman’s report, trading Carrasco wouldn’t be about the money, which makes sense. The wild spending has shot up to record heights, with Roster Resource putting their payroll at $335MM and their competitive balance tax figure at $350MM. It wouldn’t have been likely that the club would have inflated the payroll to such a degree just to start pinching pennies after the fact. The logic is that the rising price of starting pitching this winter now makes Carrasco an attractive trade piece at a somewhat nominal salary.

Spending on starting pitching has indeed been surpassing expectations. MLBTR predicted deGrom to get $135MM over three years but he got $185MM over five. Jameson Taillon and Walker were each projected for four years at $56MM and $52MM, respectively. They did get four years but Taillon got $68MM and Walker got $72MM. Sean Manaea and Andrew Heaney came in under expectations but they each secured opt-outs that allow them to return to free agency a year from now. Though if they disappoint or get hurt, their signings clubs will be on the hook for a second season.

Carrasco comes with just a one year commitment, as he’s set to reach to reach free agency after 2023. Finding a quality free agent pitcher willing to sign a modest one-year deal is tough to do. Kyle Gibson secured himself a one-year pact with a $10MM salary from the Orioles despite being 35 years old and posting a 5.05 ERA in 2022. Carrasco has a more impressive track record than someone like Gibson and could be appealing to clubs that want to steer clear of the open market.

Carrasco is turning 36 in March but is coming off a strong campaign. He made 29 starts and tossed 152 innings with a 3.97 ERA, 23.6% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate. Most advanced metrics thought he deserved even better, with Carrasco pegged at a 3.53 FIP, 3.45 xFIP and 3.60 SIERA. A .337 batting average on balls in play likely helped push his ERA up a bit. Most teams could fit a pitcher of this quality in their rotation, especially at the back end. Carrasco has some health concerns, as he’s gone to the IL for oblique and hamstring strains in recent seasons and had elbow surgery between 2021 and 2022. Nonetheless, he still proved valuable in 2022 and would certainly garner interest.

For the Mets, the calculus would likely come down to how much they value their depth. With Scherzer, Verlander, Senga and Quintana in the front four, they could rely on pitchers like David Peterson and Tylor Megill to take the final spot while using a trade of Carrasco to bolster another area of the roster. However, doing so would come with risk, given that their rotation is on the older side. Verlander turns 40 in February, Scherzer will be 39 in July, Quintana 34 in January and Carrasco 36 in March. The youngest of the bunch is Senga, who turns 30 in January. However, he will be coming over from Japan, where pitchers typically throw once a week instead of every five days in MLB. It’s unknown how his arm and body will respond to that adjustment.

Every baseball team will deal with rotation injuries throughout a lengthy season, even if it’s primarily built of young hurlers in their prime. This group will certainly have ailments from time to time as the campaign rolls along, meaning the Mets will surely have to rely on guys like Peterson and Megill even if they hang onto Carrasco. Subtracting him from the mix makes it more likely that they will have to reach deeper into their farm at some point.

The Mets still have areas they could upgrade, particularly a bullpen that lost a number of pitchers to free agency. Sherman suggests that the ideal return would actually be a young starter to plug into the farm and help them down the line. Addressing those areas could make sense but it would also deal a blow to the rotation security they have worked so hard to strengthen.

Mets Looking To Add Third Starting Pitcher, Interested In Ross Stripling

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The Mets have already been active in the starting pitching market this winter, adding Justin Verlander on a two-year, $86.6MM deal before bringing in Jose Quintana for two-years, $26MM. Yet they’re not stopping there, with Joel Sherman of the New York Post reporting that the team is telling agents at the Winter Meetings they plan to obtain a third starter this off-season. Sherman cites Japanese star Kodai Senga and Ross Stripling as two players the team is interested in, while also exploring other options on the trade and free agent market.

While the Mets have been linked to a number of starting pitchers this winter beyond the two they’ve signed, their reported interest in Stripling is new. He’s a free agent after a strong platform year in Toronto, where he tossed 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. He struck out batters at a below-average 20.7% clip, but limited the walks at an impressive 3.7% rate. He doesn’t throw the ball especially hard, mixing in a low-90s fastball with a slider and changeup, as well as a curveball on occasion.

While Stripling, 32, certainly showed enough to be offered starting roles, he’s spent much of his career with the Dodgers and Blue Jays in a hybrid role between the bullpen and rotation. Indeed, just this season Stripling was only pushed into a full-time starting role by the injury to Hyun Jin Ryu. He did average just five frames per outing, but he was thrust into a starting role from the bullpen and starters are going shorter nowadays anyway. Nonetheless, with a full pre-season to ramp up towards a starters workload, it’s certainly possible Stripling handles a bigger workload next year.

Senga would represent a higher upside, but also vastly more expensive option should the Mets go down that route. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $18MM deal for Stripling, whereas Senga was tabbed to get a five-year, $75MM contract. While owner Steve Cohen has shown a willingness to spend aggressively to build a contender, their recent moves have taken their luxury tax payroll to an estimated $306MM, and as a second-time offender they’ll pay a 90% tax on any salary over the $293MM mark. Put simply, signing someone like Stripling or Senga would, as things stand, mean the Mets have to pay almost double whatever annual salary is written on their contract.

One option would be to consider ways to lower their payroll, and Sherman does mention that the signing of a third starter could motivate the Mets to trade someone like Carlos Carrasco, who has one-year and $14MM remaining. While the idea of adding a pitching only to subtract another might appear counter-intuitive, the Mets would still be well positioned in their rotation with Verlander, Max Scherzer, Quintana, an external addition and probably David Peterson rounding out the five, with Joey Lucchesi, Tylor Megill and Elieser Hernandez providing depth.

Mets To Pick Up Options On Carlos Carrasco, John Curtiss

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The Mets are going to pick up Carlos Carrasco’s option for 2023, per Tim Healey of Newsday. He’ll earn a $14MM salary instead of a $3MM buyout. They will also pick up their $775K option on reliever John Curtiss instead of the $70K buyout, per Mike Puma of The New York Post.

Carrasco, 36 in March, has been up-and-down over the past few years, with injuries usually contributing to the down parts. Acquired by the Mets prior to 2021, he only tossed 52 2/3 innings last year with a 6.04 ERA. 2020 was much better, as he was healthy enough to make 29 starts and toss 152 frames. In that time, he registered a 3.97 ERA with a 23.6% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate. With the $14MM option price and $3MM buyout, it was a net $11MM decision for the club. There’s certainly risk in that kind of commitment given Carrasco’s injury history, but it’s also possible that he’s well worth that salary.

What also likely played a role in the Mets’ decision was their broad rotation picture. Jacob deGrom opted out of his contract while Taijuan Walker and Chris Bassitt declined options in favor of free agency. That’s left three big holes in the club’s starting staff for next year. Even if Carrasco’s age and injury history caused them to consider turning down his option at any point, they might have been dissuaded from doing so by the circumstances. Replacing three starters is challenging enough without creating another vacancy.

With Carrasco now retained, he will slot in behind Max Scherzer as two of the club’s starters next year. There are some in-house options for filling the remaining three slots, such as Tylor Megill, David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi and Jose Butto. However, the Mets have been quite aggressive in upgrading their roster in recent years and will likely bring in reinforcements, either fresh faces or convincing their departing free agents to return.

As for Curtiss, 30 in April, he seemed to be having a breakout in recent years. In 2020, he tossed 25 innings for the Rays with a 1.80 ERA, 25.3% strikeout rate, 3% walk rate and 42% ground ball rate. He got traded to the Marlins prior to 2021 and then to the Brewers a few months later. He posted a 3.45 ERA over 44 1/3 innings that year but then required Tommy John surgery in September.

After he was non-tendered by the Brewers, the Mets signed him to a one-year deal, knowing that he would miss the entire 2022 campaign, but with the option for 2023. The $775K salary is barely above the league minimum, which will be $720K next year. There’s little risk in the Mets picking it up and seeing if Curtiss can bounceback to his old form once healthy. They also face a huge amount of turnover in the bullpen, as Mychal Givens, Adam Ottavino, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez, Seth Lugo, Trevor May and Tommy Hunter are all now free agents. Edwin Díaz was set to join that group before he and the Mets agreed to a new contract. Given that the Mets will need to essentially rebuild their entire bullpen, it makes sense to retain any warm they can find.

With these two salaries now on the books, the Mets’ payroll for 2023 is up to $238MM, according to Roster Resource. Their CBT number is slightly ahead at $249MM, since that figure is calculated by looking at the annual average value of contracts over their entire length, not just the 2023 salaries. This year’s top luxury tax bracket will begin at $293MM, with owner Steve Cohen hinting to Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of The New York Post that he could be willing to spend in that range. If that’s the case, the club still has some funds available to continue upgrading the pitching staff and the positional player mix.

The Opener: Click, Option Decisions, White Sox

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As the offseason continues to chug through it’s earliest stages, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. Will James Click Continue As Houston’s GM?

While Dusty Baker has accepted a one-year contract extension as Astros manager, GM James Click did not do the same when owner Jim Crane offered him a one-year extension of his own, telling reporters he is “in discussions” regarding a new contract. While it’s something of a shock that the World Series-winning general manager wouldn’t receive a multi-year extension offer, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post notes, there has long been speculation of Crane looking for a change in the front office, which is only further fueled by reports that he shot down a deal for Cubs catcher Willson Contreras at the trade deadline. Heyman suggests that the Astros may have interest in David Stearns, a former Houston executive who recently stepped down from his president of baseball operations position with Milwaukee. Stearns is still under contract with the Brewers for 2023, however, so the Astros would likely need to make a minor trade along the lines of the deal between the Cubs and Red Sox to send Theo Epstein to Chicago after the 2011 season if they are to acquire his services for the 2023 season. It’s also worth noting that Stearns definitively stated upon stepping back as president he plans to remain in Milwaukee and spend more time with family.

2. Option Decisions Continue To Linger

On the eve of the deadline for options decisions, a few notable ones still linger. Perhaps the most notable player in the bunch is longtime Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner, on whom the club faces a $14MM decision on. A strong second half made what once seemed like an easy decision to decline the option much less clear cut. That being said, with players like Miguel Vargas and Michael Busch waiting in the wings, the Dodgers may prefer their younger internal options going forward. A few clubs also having intriguing option decisions to make in the rotation, most notably the Mets on Carlos Carrasco and the Orioles on Jordan Lyles. Both teams are relatively thin on proven rotation arms (the Mets thanks to other potential free-agent departures), so locking up a starter for 2023 could make sense for either club. That said, the $10MM the Orioles would spend on Lyles may be better served allocated to another starter with, perhaps, a higher ceiling, while the Mets may prefer to search for a younger option for their rotation than Carrasco, who will play 2023 at age 36. Aside from Carrasco, the Mets have Max Scherzer, 38, under contract for next season and are reportedly expressing interest in reunions with Jacob deGrom and Chris Bassitt, who are both in their mid-thirties.

3. White Sox Have Plenty Of Needs This Offseason

After a disappointing 81-81 season and with many holes to fill on the roster, the White Sox will need to be active this offseason. In addition to longtime first baseman Jose Abreu hitting free agency, outfielder AJ Pollock declined his player option in a surprising move, and Chicago declined to exercise their option on second baseman Josh Harrison. While these option decisions have saved the club some money (Pollock’s decision in particular saves Chicago $8MM), they still might not have a lot to spend this offseason. RosterResource estimates their 2023 payroll to be just over $174MM, not far below their all-time record payroll of $194MM in 2022. The Athletic’s James Fegan notes that while Hahn has expressed confidence in top prospect Oscar Colas as an outfield regular in 2023, he similarly noted the possibility that Eloy Jimenez will spend more time at DH going forward, leaving the club in position to pursue outfield options regardless of Colas’s readiness for an everyday major league role, particularly with Pollock’s departure meaning their best internal fourth outfielder is Adam Engel. Given most of the Chicago lineup is right-handed, an outfielder who can hit from the left side, such as Joc Pederson, or the switch-hitting Jurickson Profar, would make sense as a target. As for second base, Chicago’s dearth of production at the position in recent years makes them an obvious fit for Jean Segura, but a lower-cost option such as Adam Frazier could also make sense.

Mets Notes: Carrasco, Medina, Scherzer

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The Mets will welcome Carlos Carrasco back from the 15-day injured list today, with the veteran righty being activated to start against the Nationals.  Right-hander Adonis Medina was optioned to Triple-A to open up a spot for Carrasco on the active roster.

Carrasco hasn’t pitched since August 15 due to a left oblique strain, though fortunately for both the right-hander and the Mets, it was a lower-grade oblique issue.  Rather than a season-threatening injury, Carrasco is now back after just shy of three weeks on the sidelines, and ready to help the Mets in their bid for the NL East title.  Though the injury wasn’t overly serious, it did have some notable ramifications on Carrasco’s contract, as he now won’t be able to reach the 170 innings necessary to turn the Mets’ $14MM club option for 2023 into a guaranteed year.

However, it is also quite possible the Mets will end up exercising that option anyway, given how solid Carrasco has been this year.  After his first season in New York was marred by injuries, Carrasco has rebounded to post a 3.92 ERA/3.60 SIERA over 126 1/3 innings in 2022.  While his hard-contact numbers are middling and Carrasco has been hampered by a .330 BABIP, he has posted above-average strikeout and walk rates.  As has often been the case throughout his career, Carrasco also still has one of the best chase rates of any pitcher in baseball.

The Mets have an 85-49 record despite playing virtually the entire season without their first-choice rotation, and that trend might be in danger of continuing just as Carrasco makes his return.  Max Scherzer had to leave yesterday’s start after 67 pitches due to what the team described as left side fatigue.

Considering that Scherzer missed close to two months with a oblique strain of his own earlier this season, his removal “was a precautionary move,” the right-hander told MLB.com’s Joe Trezza and other reporters.

“There was nothing that happened.  Nothing tightened up.  Just had general fatigue overall on my left side,” Scherzer said.  “That is where you can run into an injury, when you’re pitching through fatigue….I just couldn’t take any risks, especially where the calendar is at.  There is no time left to re-ramp back up.  I think that played just as important a factor in coming out after five [innings].”

Scherzer said he would be able to make his next start, while Mets manager Buck Showalter was a little less steadfast, instead saying “we’re hopeful [Scherzer] can make his next start.”  New York doesn’t have a game on Thursday, so Scherzer will already get an extra day to rest and recover before he is slated to face the Marlins on September 9.  Given the right-hander’s importance to the Mets’ playoff chances, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see that start pushed back or perhaps even scratched if Scherzer has any at all lingering effects from his side issue.

Carlos Carrasco Diagnosed With Low-Grade Oblique Strain

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The Mets announced that starter Carlos Carrasco has been diagnosed with a low-grade strain of his left oblique. The team added that recoveries from a strain of this nature typically take three-to-four weeks.

It’s not unexpected news after the right-hander was sent for an MRI this morning. Carrasco departed last night’s start against the Braves after two innings with soreness in his side, immediately raising the possibility of an oblique issue. It’s certainly not ideal that he’ll have to go on the injured list and could miss around a month of action, but the club is also fortunate he’s dodged a more serious strain that would have impacted his availability for the postseason.

Carrasco started last night’s game and made it through one inning before weather forced a 55-minute delay. The 35-year-old stayed in the contest despite the long layoff, throwing inside the facility while waiting for the rain to subside. That Carrasco felt discomfort within an inning of getting back on the mound has led to some speculation that manager Buck Showalter’s decision to stick with the veteran after the delay could’ve played a role in the injury. However, both the skipper and Carrasco told reporters they believed the injury to be coincidental, noting that Carrasco had kept himself loose and felt fine until his final pitch. (Braves manager Brian Snitker also stuck with his starter, Spencer Strider, who ended up throwing five innings and 87 pitches).

Carrasco has been an effective mid-rotation arm during his second season in Queens, pitching to a 3.92 ERA with an above-average 23.4% strikeout rate over 23 starts. He missed most of his first year as a Met with a torn right hamstring, but he’d avoided the IL thus far in 2022. Carrasco had been slated to start one half of a doubleheader against the Phillies on Saturday, but the club now seems likely to turn to swingman Trevor Williams to pair with sixth starter David Peterson, who is expected to be recalled from Triple-A Syracuse, as Anthony DiComo of MLB.com wrote last night.

The Mets hold a 4 1/2 game lead over Atlanta in the NL East. The division winner is all but certain to get the newly-instituted first-round bye in the Wild Card round, with a huge margin between the leaders in the NL East and NL Central. A starting five of Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and Peterson is still an excellent group, but there’s no question the club would feel better with Carrasco also in the fold. They seem likely to welcome Carrasco back in some capacity before the postseason gets underway, but it remains to be seen to what extent he’ll be able to build his arm strength back up after the layoff. It’s possible he’s limited more to relief or abbreviated starting work heading into the playoffs.

The injury also has important ramifications for Carrasco contractually. The Mets hold a $14MM option on his services for 2023. That provision would vest (become guaranteed) if he throws 170 innings this season and finishes the year healthy. Carrasco has tallied 126 1/3 frames thus far, leaving him 43 2/3 innings shy of the threshold. There’s no chance for him to work that much over the final three weeks of the season, so the injury eliminates any possibility of Carrasco reaching the vesting trigger.

Of course, the Mets could deem a $14MM price point reasonable enough they exercise Carrasco’s option regardless. He’s been a valuable member of a team that could lose deGrom, Bassitt, Walker and Williams to free agency. New York will need to retain or add plenty of starting pitching this winter, and there could be value in simply keeping Carrasco around. At the same time, they already have an estimated $194MM in guaranteed commitments on the 2023 books and are facing a massive free agent class that also includes Brandon Nimmo and Edwin Díaz. Even with a payroll that may be the highest in the majors (and could well tip over $300MM), they’re likely to lose a couple key contributors from this year’s club.

Carlos Carrasco Headed For MRI After Experiencing Side Discomfort

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Carlos Carrasco left last night’s start against the Braves after just two innings, as the hurler felt some discomfort in his left side. Anthony DiComo of MLB.com was among those to relay that the right-hander will head for an MRI today to determine the cause and severity of the issue.

Carrasco started the game and made it through one inning before weather forced a 55-minute delay. The 35-year-old stayed in the contest despite the long layoff, throwing inside the facility while waiting for the rain to subside. That Carrasco felt discomfort within an inning of getting back on the mound has led to some speculation that manager Buck Showalter’s decision to stick with the veteran after the delay could’ve played a role in the injury. However, both the skipper and Carrasco told reporters they believed the injury to be coincidental, noting that Carrasco had kept himself loose and felt fine until his final pitch. (Braves manager Brian Snitker also stuck with his starter, Spencer Strider, who ended up throwing five innings and 87 pitches).

Regardless, the Mets have to hope the MRI doesn’t reveal any serious issues. Side discomfort can be a precursor to oblique strains — which often cost players upwards of a month on the injured list — but that won’t be known until the imaging results come back. Carrasco has been an effective mid-rotation arm during his second season in Queens, pitching to a 3.92 ERA with an above-average 23.4% strikeout rate over 23 starts. He missed most of his first year as a Met with a torn right hamstring, but he’s avoided the IL thus far in 2022.

Any kind of injury absence could also have contractual repercussions. Carrasco is in the final guaranteed year of his contract. The Mets hold a $14MM option on his services for 2023. That provision would vest (become guaranteed) if he throws 170 innings this season and finishes the year healthy. Carrasco has tallied 126 1/3 frames thus far, leaving him 43 2/3 innings shy of the threshold. The Mets have 46 regular season games remaining, setting them up for around 8-9 more turns through the rotation. Should Carrasco stay healthy, he’d have a chance at getting to 170 innings — he’d need around 4.85 frames per start over nine appearances, 5.46 innings over eight starts — but even a brief IL stay would all but foreclose that possibility.

Of course, the Mets could deem a $14MM price point reasonable enough they exercise Carrasco’s option even if it doesn’t vest. He’s been a valuable member of a team that could lose Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and Trevor Williams to free agency. New York will need to retain or add plenty of starting pitching this winter, and there could be value in simply keeping Carrasco around. At the same time, they already have an estimated $194MM in guaranteed commitments on the 2023 books and are facing a massive free agent class that also includes Brandon Nimmo and Edwin Díaz. Even with a payroll that may be the highest in the majors (and could well tip over $300MM), they’re likely to lose a couple key contributors from this year’s club.

Forecasting The 2022-23 Qualifying Offers: Pitchers

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Yesterday, we took a look at the pending free agent position players who could be candidates to receive a qualifying offer this winter.  Now, let’s turn our attention to what free agent pitchers might be in line for a QO, with the caveat that players can only receive one qualifying offer in their careers, and a player must spend the entire 2022 season with his team to be eligible.

Easy Calls: Chris Bassitt (Mets), Jacob deGrom (Mets), Edwin Diaz (Mets), Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox), Carlos Rodon (Giants)

DeGrom has already said that he is opting out of the final guaranteed season of his contract, leaving $30.5MM on the table in 2023 to seek out a longer-term pact.  Rodon is also sure to opt out of the final year (and $22.5MM) of his two-year contact with San Francisco, as Rodon earned his opt-out by triggering a vesting option at the 110-innings threshold.

Even with Eovaldi’s injury history, retaining him for one year at roughly $19MM seems like a pretty good outcome for the Red Sox, particularly given all the other question marks in Boston’s rotation.  So there’s little risk for the Sox in issuing Eovaldi a QO, though it would seem like Eovaldi will probably reject it.

Face-of-the-Franchise Veterans: Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers), Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)

With Kershaw considering retirement last winter, the Dodgers opted against issuing him a qualifying offer as a free agent, as a nod towards giving the longtime ace all the time he needed to make a decision on his future.  It stands to reason that the Dodgers will take the same path this winter, unless Kershaw gives them advance notice of his plans for 2023….though in that scenario, the two sides might just work out an extension before free agency even officially opens.

The same could be true of Wainwright, who has signed one-year contracts to rejoin the Cardinals in each of the last four offseasons.  In three of those cases, Wainwright inked his new deal either just after the start of the free agent period or before it altogether, so it’s safe to assume the two sides will work out a new pact without the QO coming into play.  Of course, this assumes that Wainwright will come back for an 18th Major League season, but even as his 41st birthday approaches, the right-hander is still going strong.

Easy Contract-Option Calls: Carlos Carrasco (Mets), Sonny Gray (Twins), Aaron Nola (Phillies)

These starters could be free agents if their club options are declined, and thus are technically qualifying-offer candidates.  However, the trio are all virtual locks to have their options exercised, and their respective options are all worth less than the projected cost of the qualifying offer.

Borderline Cases: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Mike Clevinger (Padres), Zach Eflin (Phillies), Sean Manaea (Padres), Martin Perez (Rangers), Jameson Taillon (Yankees), Taijuan Walker (Mets)

Walker is yet another Mets entry on this list, as he is very likely to decline his $6MM player option for 2023 and instead take a $3MM buyout into free agency.  Advanced metrics paint a less-flattering picture of Walker’s performance than his bottom-line numbers, and he has battled both injury and consistency problems over his career, though Walker has been relatively healthy in his two seasons in New York.  It would seem likely that the Mets will issue Walker a QO, and 2022 has been enough of a platform year for the righty that he will probably turn the qualifying offer down.

The Padres are another team with multiple QO candidates, as while Joe Musgrove was kept off the open market with a $100MM extension, Manaea and Clevinger remain.  Due in part to two particularly disastrous outings against the Dodgers, Manaea’s ERA is an ungainly 4.76 over 119 innings.  Clevinger has a solid 3.47 ERA in his return from Tommy John surgery, but that is only over 70 innings, due to both his TJ rehab as well as a triceps strain and a week on the COVID-related IL.

Right now, Manaea and Clevinger could possibly be candidates to accept a qualifying offer, if they don’t feel they have enough of a platform to maximize their free agent market.  Solid performances over the final month and a half of the season would make it an easier decision for either pitcher to reject a QO, and easier for the Padres to decide whether or not to issue the offers.  San Diego could be facing a third consecutive year of luxury-tax overage in 2023, especially if Manaea and/or Clevinger are on the books for a $19MM-ish salary.

Eflin is another player who needs to post some solid numbers down the stretch, but first and foremost, the Philadelphia right-hander just needs to get healthy.  Eflin has been on the IL since late June due to a kneecap bruise, and his continued knee soreness is a red flag for a pitcher who has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past.  When healthy, Eflin has been a quietly solid pitcher for the Phillies over the last five seasons, yet his lingering knee problems are certainly a concern.  There is the interesting wrinkle of a $15MM mutual option between Eflin and the Phils for 2023, and while mutual options are rarely exercised by both parties, this could be a rare situation where it would make sense for both the player and the team.  Paying $15MM for Eflin would also represent some risk for the Phillies, but it would be less than the value of a qualifying offer.

After a great start to the season, Taillon’s numbers have come back to earth a bit, with a 3.95 ERA over 120 2/3 innings.  A below-average strikeout pitcher, Taillon has relied on excellent control and spin rates on his fastball and curve to limit damage, and he also doesn’t allow too much hard contact.  Perhaps most importantly given Taillon’s injury history, he has been healthy in 2022, which should make offseason suitors more open to giving him a longer-term contract.  For now, it seems probable that the Yankees would issue Taillon a QO rather than let him potentially walk away for nothing in free agency.

The idea of Anderson or Perez as QO candidates would’ve seemed quite farfetched heading into the season, yet the two veteran left-handers are each enjoying career years that resulted in All-Star appearances.  Their underwhelming career histories could prevent the Dodgers and Rangers from issuing qualifying offers, since either pitcher would likely take the big payday, and $19MM is a lot to invest in basically one season of evidence (even for a Dodgers team that is comfortable blowing past luxury tax thresholds).

However, it would certainly make sense for either club to pursue re-signings, even if a qualifying offer isn’t involved.  The Rangers have already been vocal about their desire to retain Perez, so it is quite possible he signs an extension before even hitting the open market.

Vesting Options Update: Flexen, Maldonado, Carrasco, Andrus

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Major league contracts cannot be made conditional on player performance metrics, but it is permissible for clubs and teams to agree to options dependent upon playing time. Things such as innings pitched, plate appearances or (less frequently) games started or finished are all possible goals that could allow a player to trigger either additional guarantees or the right to opt out of an otherwise guaranteed contract. It’s also permissible to tie vesting provisions to a player’s finish in award voting, as we’ll see with the final player on this list.

This year, there are seven players whose 2023 contract status is tied directly to their playing time and/or awards finishes on the season. With a couple months left in the schedule, it’s worth checking in to see how they’re progressing towards those thresholds.

Already Vested

Carlos Rodón, SP, Giants

Rodón already reached the 110-inning threshold necessary to trigger his vesting provision last month. That affords him the right to opt out of the final year and $22.5MM remaining on his deal with San Francisco, and the Boras Corporation client is sure to do just that. Rodón has backed up his 2021 breakout with another elite season. He carries a 2.95 ERA across 128 1/3 innings, striking out an elite 31.2% of batters faced while sitting in the 95-96 MPH range with his fastball. The 29-year-old should receive the long-term deal that eluded him last winter, as he’s now pushing 50 starts of ace-level performance over the past two seasons and has put last summer’s shoulder soreness further in the rearview mirror.

Justin Verlander, SP, Astros

As with Rodón, Verlander has already hit his vesting threshold. The future Hall of Famer needed to hit 130 innings on the season to kick in a $25MM player option for next year, a milestone he reached last week. Barring injury, he’s going to pass up on that sum and test the open market. Despite being in his age-39 season, the nine-time All-Star has returned to the top of the Houston rotation after losing virtually all of 2020-21 to Tommy John surgery recovery. He owns an MLB-best 1.73 ERA across 130 frames, positioning himself as a strong contender for a third career Cy Young award. Verlander’s swing-and-miss rates aren’t quite at his pre-surgery peak, but that shouldn’t be much of a concern given his track record and continued dominance without an elite strikeout rate. The ISE Baseball client could look to top former teammate Max Scherzer’s $43.333MM average annual salary and shoot for an all-time record — particularly if he’s willing to accept two guaranteed years instead of holding out for a three-year deal that takes him through his age-42 season.

Should Be Imminently Reached

Chris Flexen, SP, Mariners

Flexen signed a two-year, $4.75MM guarantee upon coming over from the Korea Baseball Organization during the 2020-21 offseason. The deal contained a $4MM club option for the 2023 campaign but afforded Flexen the opportunity to override that with an $8MM salary based on his number of innings pitched. (MLBTR recently confirmed that Flexen’s vesting provision would guarantee his 2023 salary but does not afford him an opt-out clause after this season). The righty could reach that marker by tallying either 150 innings in 2022 or 300 combined frames from 2021-22.

As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald noted yesterday, Flexen is soon to reach the latter threshold. He worked 179 2/3 frames last season, leaving him with 120 1/3 innings to tally this year. Through 21 starts, the 28-year-old has worked 117 frames. He needs just 3 1/3 more innings and should officially hit the threshold during his next start (or within two starts at the latest) barring an immediate season-ending injury. The Mariners, for their part, should be perfectly content to keep Flexen around for a reasonable $8MM. He’s been a durable source of roughly league average innings, posting an ERA of 3.73 since landing in the Pacific Northwest. Flexen doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s avoided the injured list and thrown plenty of strikes. He’s a perfectly fine back-of-the-rotation arm for a team with a spacious home ballpark and a strong defense behind him, and Seattle’s 2023 payroll slate is plenty reasonable.

Martín Maldonado, C, Astros

Last April, the Astros preemptively kept Maldonado from getting to the open market after the 2021 season. They signed him to a $5MM pact for 2022, and the deal contained a matching vesting provision for the following year. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle was among those to report that Maldonado would lock in the $5MM salary for 2023 if he appeared in 90 games during the ’22 campaign.

Heading into play Tuesday, Maldonado has gotten into 82 contests. The 35-year-old (36 next week) has continued to pick up the bulk of the playing time even after Houston acquired Christian Vázquez from the Red Sox just before the trade deadline. Maldonado has been behind the dish for four of Houston’s six games since August 2, with Vázquez picking up the other two starts. Maldonado should get to the 90-game threshold with ease (again, barring imminent injury), likely within about two weeks.

Vázquez is ticketed for free agency after the season, so Maldonado should hold onto his primary catching job next year. It’s possible the Astros bring in a 1B complement, particularly with prospect Korey Lee struggling at Triple-A, but it seems they’ll be content to turn things over to Maldonado for a fourth straight season. The veteran has always been one of the game’s worst hitters, and that’s continued this season. He owns a .183/.244/.357 line across 278 plate appearances. He’s hitting for a bit more power than usual but posting one of his worst years from an on-base perspective. He’s also rated as a below-average defender this year in the estimation of public metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s pitch framing.

The Astros have maintained that Maldonado’s game-calling acumen and ability to handle a pitching staff is elite, however. That’s not going to show up on his statistical ledger, but the organization has backed up those assertions by continuing to pencil Maldonado into the lineup on most days. They’ve got no shortage of offensive firepower elsewhere around the diamond. Maldonado’s poor numbers haven’t stopped the team from racing to 30 games above .500, and they’ve had arguably baseball’s top pitching staff. One can debate how much credit Maldonado deserves for that, but he’s probably bringing some amount of on-field value that’s not quantifiable.

Attainable But Borderline

Carlos Carrasco, SP, Mets

Carrasco has a $14MM club option for next season on a contract extension he initially signed with Cleveland over the 2018-19 offseason. That option becomes guaranteed if he throws 170 innings in 2022 and is expected to be healthy for the following season, according to an Associated Press report. Carrasco can’t officially lock in the latter designation until the end of the year, as he’ll presumably need to pass a physical at the start of the offseason.

He can work towards the first goal, however. Carrasco enters play Tuesday with 117 2/3 innings across 21 starts. That leaves him 52 1/3 frames short with a little less than two months to go. The 35-year-old has averaged around 5.6 innings per start to this point in the season. At that rate, he’ll need to make between nine and ten more outings, which he’s right on track to hit by the end of the year. New York has 52 games left in the regular season, putting them on pace to go through a five-man rotation about ten more times. Even a brief injured list stint would probably prevent Carrasco from getting to 170 frames, but he’s on pace thus far.

Of course, it’s not a guarantee he’d hit free agency at the end of the year if he doesn’t trigger the vesting threshold. The Mets would still retain his services via club option, and it’s possible they’d exercise it anyhow. They’re over $280MM in 2022 payroll, so a $14MM salary isn’t all that burdensome. After an injury-plagued first season in Queens, the well-respected Carrasco has bounced back with a nice year. He owns a 3.82 ERA with slightly better than average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. If he finishes the year healthy and remains generally productive, the Mets probably keep him around regardless.

Elvis Andrus, SS, Athletics

The A’s, on the other hand, aren’t likely to want anything to do with Andrus’ option. The veteran shortstop’s extension with the Rangers contained a $15MM club option for 2023. That’d become a player option if Andrus were both traded (as he was, from Texas to Oakland) and tallies 550 plate appearances in 2022.

Andrus has hit 366 times thus far, leaving him 184 plate appearances shy of the marker. The A’s have 52 games remaining, so Andrus needs to tally around 3.54 plate appearances per game from here on out. He’s averaged 3.66 PA’s per game through the season’s first few months, so he’s on pace to reach the mark. If Andrus continued at his current pace, he’d reach approximately 556 plate appearances at year’s end. If the A’s are intent on avoiding that situation, they could mix in a couple more off days over the next two months to prevent him from getting there.

Deliberately curbing playing time to prevent a player from reaching a vesting threshold would be grounds for a grievance filing against the team. The rebuilding A’s could point to a desire to get 23-year-old Nick Allen more regular run at shortstop as an on-field justification, even as Allen has struggled mightily through his early stint in the major leagues. If Andrus misses the vesting threshold by just a handful of plate appearances, it’s certain to raise some eyebrows around the league and in the offices of the MLBPA. There’s little question Andrus — owner of a serviceable .241/.303/.372 line on the season — is one of the nine best position players on the last-place club. Yet he wouldn’t receive $15MM on the open market and would definitely trigger the option if it vests, likely counting for more than a quarter of the A’s bottom-of-the-barrel player payroll next season if that occurs.

Not Happening

Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Dodgers

The Dodgers re-signed the ever-productive Turner to a two-year, $34MM guarantee during the 2020-21 offseason. The deal contains a $16MM club option for 2023 that would vest at $20MM if Turner finishes in the top ten in MVP balloting this season. It’d vest at $17.5MM if he finishes between 11th and 15th in MVP balloting (report via Bob Nightengale of USA Today).

Turner overcame a very slow start with an excellent month of July that pushed his season line up to .257/.332/.405 through 355 plate appearances. He’s having a solid year, but it’s his worst season since he landed in Southern California back in 2014. Turner certainly isn’t going to get legitimate MVP support. Would the Dodgers exercise the option regardless as he heads into his age-38 season? That feels unlikely, but perhaps Turner could play his way into it with a strong stretch run and postseason after returning from an abdominal strain that currently has him on the injured list.

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