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Olney On August Moves, Mauer, Indians

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After explaining how Ricky Romero's change-up has become such a weapon, ESPN.com's Buster Olney provides us with some new rumors:

  • We should expect a buyer's market in August when few teams will submit waiver claims on players for fear of getting stuck with a contract they can't afford.
  • Some good news for the Twins fans who are dreading the day Joe Mauer hits free agency: his agent, Ron Shapiro, represented Kirby Puckett and Cal Ripken Jr., who both stayed with one team their entire career. Mauer becomes a free agent after next year.
  • Rafael Betancourt, Carl Pavano and Jamey Carroll could be the next Indians moved. None of the three are under contract for 2010.

Rosenthal On Buyers And Sellers

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports predicts whether six of the teams on the fringes of the playoff race will become buyers or sellers between now and July 31st, providing some rumors along the way:

  • The Cardinals, who are not interested in Miguel Tejada, are tracking Mark DeRosa.
  • Carl Pavano, Jamey Carroll and Rafael Betancourt could all become trade candidates.
  • The Indians will only move Victor Martinez or Cliff Lee if they're overwhelmed.
  • Rosenthal predicts the White Sox will be buyers. After all, their offense has lots of room for improvement and they're just 3.0 games behind Detroit.
  • If the Rockies sell, they could have two impressive trade chips in Jason Marquis and Huston Street.
  • One GM predicts that demand for Street will be so intense that he'll command more in return than Matt Holliday will for the A's.
  • The Yankees, Rangers and Dodgers could have interest if Street hits the market.
  • The Astros won't likely add payroll, but Rosenthal doesn't expect them to sell.
  • Along with Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn, the Mariners have Adrian Beltre. We don't know if any of them will hit the market, but Beltre's been hitting better for the last six weeks.
  • The Marlins are looking for a reliever who can set up for Matt Lindstrom.
  • Rosenthal predicts the Marlins will try to compete for as long as possible before considering deals for Jorge Cantu, Dan Uggla and Jeremy Hermida. 

Indians Uncertain About Trade Status

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As MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince reports, GM Mark Shapiro and the Indians still haven't decided if they are going to start pawning off their movable pieces for players that can help the team next year and beyond. 

"We're on the sidelines right now," Shapiro said. "We're keeping a pulse of the market and not making a decision in either direction."  

The Tribe were 24-34 and seven games back in the AL Central coming into today's action, but currently have eight players on the disabled list. Starters Cliff Lee and the resurgent Carl Pavano figure to draw significant interest from contending teams, ditto catcher Victor Martinez. We've certainly heard plenty of rumors about infielder Mark DeRosa already.

With no reason to move players sooner rather than later, the Indians can afford to sit back and see how things play out once they get healthy. They are just one hot week from being right back in thick of things in a winnable division after all.

Odds & Ends: Pavano, Draft, Dodgertown

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A couple of links on a sluggish Saturday afternoon in the baseball world…

  • MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince has an update on Carl Pavano's contract: "Pavano, at his current rate, is projected to go 17-11 with a 4.63 ERA in 205 innings over 34 starts this season. If that were to happen, Pavano would make an additional $3.5 million in performance incentives, on top of the $1.5 million he is guaranteed this season."
  • Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel breaks down some possibilities for the Brewers' first pick.  Baseball America has Milwaukee selecting Notre Dame center fielder A.J. Pollock 26th overall. The Brewers boast five of the first 74 picks.
  • Can't get enough draft coverage? John Sickels over at SB Nation's Minor League Ball hosted a first round mock draft this afternoon. 
  • Dodger Stadium and the surrounding area received it's own ZIP code today, 90090, in a ceremony behind home plate.  The territory is already officially listed as "Dodgertown, California."
  • Missouri right-hander Kyle Gibson, Baseball America's 4th ranked draft prospect, suffered a stress fracture in his throwing arm on May 30.  He'll be out six weeks.  

Indians Not In Selling Mode

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Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner are on the disabled list and the Indians are last in the AL Central, but GM Mark Shapiro told Tom Verducci of SI.com that he isn't selling because he expects a revival from his team. As Verducci points out, only one team in the Wild Card era has made the playoffs after beginning June at least eight games under .500, the 2005 Houston Astros.

However, Shapiro said it's "too early to be preemptive" and deal players like Mark DeRosa, Carl Pavano and Jamey Carroll. He's no longer looking to add, though. "I've probably slowed the effort to try to acquire," Shapiro said. "We're probably more in the middle ground right now. People may think we're crazy, but we still like the core of our team."

Is Shapiro making the right call? Verducci thinks he should be selling and I agree. 

Odds And Ends: Red Sox, Peavy, Indians, Torre

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More links for Monday…

Odds and Ends: Pavano, Giambi, Manny, Tigers

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Links for Thursday…

  • RotoAuthority looks at possible injury risk young starters for 2009, by way of the Verducci Effect.
  • Anthony Castrovince says the Indians looked at Mark Mulder, Kris Benson, Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon before signing Carl Pavano.  The Tribe’s rotation appears set.  The article also outlines Pavano’s incentives, which kick in at 18 starts.
  • A reminder: for the past month or so we’ve had a Top Stories section in the righthand sidebar.  If you’re looking to find the biggest hot stove news of the past few days quickly, look there first.
  • I did a Q&A with 3:10 To Joba.
  • Ben Shpigel tries to quantify how slow this offseason has been.
  • Susan Slusser has a few details on Jason Giambi’s contract. Jon Heyman confirms Slusser’s earlier comment that the A’s are considering Orlando Cabrera.
  • Bill Plaschke says the Dodgers are "playing the Manny Ramirez game perfectly."  McCovey Chronicles liveblogs that game from the Giants’ side.
  • Jason Beck looks at the dwindling closer options for the Tigers.

Indians Sign Carl Pavano

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2:21pm: Crasnick says the Indians signed Pavano to a one-year deal.  He gets $1.5MM guaranteed plus another $5.3MM in possible incentives, according to Troy Renck.  Anthony Castrovince says Michael Aubrey was designated for assignment to make room.

12:40pm: MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro says Pavano "has also been weighing a possible return to the Marlins," but the Indians are the "clear frontrunner."

12:30pm: ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick says the Indians "have emerged as a strong candidate" to sign Pavano.  He may seek a contract similar to Hampton’s.

11:03am: According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, the Indians are in serious discussions with free agent starter Carl Pavano.  Pavano will visit Cleveland soon and a deal could be wrapped up quickly.  We’ll have to see if Pavano can come close to the $2MM guaranteed Mike Hampton received from the Astros.

Orioles Interested In Redding, Looper, Kawakami

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9:55pm: Peter Schmuck agrees – Pavano is not on Baltimore’s radar.  Instead, they like Redding, Braden Looper, and Kenshin Kawakami.  He says they’ve extended an offer to Kawakami.  Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker learned of two new Kawakami suitors today via a Sponichi report: the Twins and Giants.  Interesting to see the Twins linked; signing Kawakami could give them the depth to make a trade.

3:07pm: MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro says the Orioles’ main focus is Redding rather than Pavano.

1:36pm: According to ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, the Orioles have been talking to agent Tom O’Connell, who represents free agent starters Tim Redding and Carl Pavano.  Crasnick notes that the Padres have no interest in either pitcher.  The Orioles are looking into tons of mid-rotation types.

Redding has drawn interest from the Mets and Rockies since being non-tendered Friday.  Pavano has been linked to the Blue Jays, Marlins, and Red Sox.

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