Camilo Doval

Giants right-hander Camilo Doval is drawing trade interest from multiple clubs, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle on X. The righty just crossed three years of service time in 2024, qualifying him for arbitration for the first time and putting him on pace for free agency after the 2027 season.

It was a down season for Doval but it’s understandable why clubs would still be interested, as it could be a chance to buy low on a guy with plenty of good results in previous years. Doval made 166 appearances for the Giants over the 2021-23 seasons, allowing 2.77 earned runs per nine innings. He struck out 30.2% of batters faced, gave out walks to 9.6% of opponents and kept 53.4% of balls in play on the ground. He earned three saves in 2021 before taking over the closer’s role more permanently, earning 66 more saves over the next two seasons.

But as mentioned, 2024 was undeniably a rough patch for him. He struggled enough that the Giants optioned him to the minors for a couple of weeks in August to try to help him reset his head and get back on track. He ultimately finished the season with a 4.88 ERA in 59 innings pitched. His 60% ground ball rate and 28.8% strikeout rate were both strong but he gave out free passes at a huge 14.4% clip.

Ryan Walker took over the closing job in San Francisco as that was happening. Walker finished his 2024 with a 1.91 ERA, 32.1% strikeout rate, 5.8% walk rate and 46.9% ground ball rate. Given the strength of that performance, he probably has a firm grip on keeping the gig going into 2025.

If the Giants could get Doval back to his pre-2024 form, they could certainly have him in a setup role alongside Walker. It wouldn’t be ideal to trade him if this is a temporary low point and he eventually returns to form.

On the other hand, if they expect his performance to continue to slip, it would make sense to consider trades before his value drops even lower. Even dominant relievers can suddenly experience a sharp drop-off in performance, impacting trade value. David Bednar of the Pirates had his name in plenty of trade rumors while posting a 2.25 ERA over the 2021-2023 seasons but the Bucs didn’t pull the trigger on any offers. Now they might wish they had, with Bednar posting a 5.77 ERA in 2024.

It’s also possible that the shift in the Giants’ front office could impact how they view Doval. It sometimes happens where a new general manager or president of baseball operations has a different valuation of a player than the predecessor, meaning their availability changes. The Giants just replaced Farhan Zaidi with Buster Posey in the POBO role and perhaps the new regime will be less committed to Doval than the previous one.

As mentioned, Doval is just getting to arbitration for the first time. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a salary of $4.6MM next year, with Doval eligible for two more passes through the arb system after that.

There would be plenty of surplus value there for the 2021-23 version of Doval. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the best relievers in the league have secured contracts that pay them $15-20MM annually and even solid setup guys can get eight-figure salaries. For any club with a plan for helping Doval put his 2024 behind him, his arb years would be a bargain, though that’s a bit uncertain at the moment with the way his most recent season played out.

4:40pm: Slusser has since updated her report to note that the previously reported $50MM figure is not accurate. She adds that the offer was “closer to what an extension for a pre-arb reliever would have been,” although the specific terms of the offer are not clear.

2:54pm: The Giants and closer Camilo Doval had talks last year about a contract extension that would have paid Doval around $50MM, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.  It isn’t known if the Giants have since made a larger offer, or if the two sides have continued negotiations in any significant fashion.

In terms of the timing of the $50MM offer, Slusser writes that Edwin Diaz’s five-year, $102MM deal with the Mets from November 2022 happened “not long before” the talks between Doval and the Giants.  It might therefore be safe to guess the two sides held discussions during Spring Training 2023, as teams routinely explore longer-term contracts with their in-house players during spring camp.

Doval is still a pre-arbitration player, as the right-hander will only enter the arb process for the first of three times this coming offseason.  He is slated to hit free agency following the 2027 campaign, so it seems likely that the Giants’ offer covered Doval’s remaining two pre-arb seasons, his three arbitration years, and at least one of his free agent seasons, with possibly a club option or two also attached.

It would’ve been quite the financial commitment for a pitcher who had only 94.2 MLB innings under his belt heading into the 2023 season, especially for a Giants team that has been wary of giving any kind of long-term contract to a pitcher since president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi took the front office.  It should be noted that the spring of 2023 did see the Giants complete a five-year, $90MM extension with Logan Webb, though a longer-term deal with a front-of-the-rotation starter carries less risk than a longer-term deal to a reliever.

There haven’t been many relief pitchers in history who have landed contracts (whether extensions or free agent deals) worth $50MM or more.  Doval was also something of a lightly regarded international prospect who signed for a $100K bonus in 2015, so even if he viewed the offer as unsatisfactory in the wake of Diaz’s deal resetting the market, it must’ve taken quite a bit of confidence on Doval’s part to pass up the life-changing security of San Francisco’s extension.

Now two months into the 2024 season, Doval’s decision to bet on himself is still looking sound.  Doval has a 2.89 ERA over 90 1/3 innings since Opening Day 2023, with an outstanding 30.4% strikeout rate, a 55.6% grounder rate, and a fastball averaging 99.2 mph.  Some other metrics stand out as red flags, as Doval has always been prone to walks, and his hard-contact numbers have been decidedly below average over the last two years.

Since traditional counting stats like saves are valued by arbiters moreso than deeper analytics, the number that might matter most to Doval’s future earnings are his Doval’s 75 saves in 87 chances over the last three seasons.  Assuming he stays healthy and effective for the remainder of 2024, he’ll head into his first round of arbitration with a strong three-year platform of quality results in the ninth inning.  This will subsequently line him up for increasingly larger salaries in his next two arb years if all goes well, and then a free agent deal in the 2027-28 offseason (when he is 30 years old) that might possibly set a new standard for closer contracts.

That is still a ways down the road, of course, which speaks to the longer-term risk that Doval is taking in foregoing an extension.  Nothing is preventing Doval and the Giants from coming together on a long-term deal at any point over the next four seasons, or San Francisco might also now be open to another options for their highest-leverage innings.  As Slusser writes, rookie Randy Rodriguez has looked good in his first taste of MLB action, and might be a potential closer of the future.  This could mean the Giants might eventually explore trading Doval in order to address needs elsewhere on the roster, while saving a bit of money on Doval’s escalating arbitration salaries, and perhaps selling high to some extent.  Those elevated hard-contact rates, for instance, or Doval’s continued control problems might have given the Giants some more concerns over Doval’s long-term viability than they had in the spring in 2023.