Caleb Smith

Marlins left-hander Caleb Smith is generating interest as the July 31 trade deadline nears, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com tweets.

It’s no surprise there are teams eyeing the controllable, effective Smith, but whether the Marins are open to dealing him is in question. Frisaro reported a month ago that the Marlins aren’t willing to give up Smith, who has been one of the few hugely successful trade additions they’ve acquired since Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter bought the franchise late in the 2017 season.

Smith, like Jeter, joined the Marlins after a run with the Yankees. The 27-year-old hurler threw 77 1/3 effective innings with the Marlins a season ago and has been even more impressive in 2019. Across 90 frames, Smith has recorded a 3.30 ERA/4.13 FIP with 11.0 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9. While Smith’s 28 percent groundball rate ranks last among those who have thrown at least 90 innings this season, the home run ball hasn’t crushed him to this point. Smith has surrendered HRs on 15.2 percent of fly balls, which is below average but not ruinous.

Smith doesn’t throw particularly hard, evidenced by his 92.1 mph average, but hitters have nonetheless had difficulty squaring up against him. According to Statcast, Smith ranks in the 70th percentile or better in expected weighted on-base average against, exit velocity, fastball spin, expected batting average and strikeout rate. If that’s not appealing enough, Smith’s making what amounts to a minimum salary this season and won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2020 campaign.

All things considered, Miami would be within reason to request a ransom for Smith. However, assuming the Marlins haven’t changed their minds over the past month, they seem inclined to keep him.

Although the Marlins have the worst record in the National League and the fifth-fewest wins in all of baseball, the organization has “no intention” of trading left-hander Caleb Smith to further its rebuilding effort, tweets Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. More broadly, he notes that Miami isn’t looking to deal from its core of controllable starters.

It still seems quite likely that teams will at least ask about Smith, 27, in the weeks leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. He’s currently on the 10-day IL due to some inflammation in his hip, but there’s no indication to this point that the injury is especially serious. Smith is controllable for four years beyond the 2019 campaign, which would hold enormous value to another club, particularly given how well he’s thrown when healthy.

Through 66 innings this year, Smith has turned in a 3.41 ERA with 11.2 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher who has been homer-prone even with a cavernous home park, but his 15.1 percent swinging-strike rate ranks fifth among pitchers with at least 60 innings thrown, trailing the quartet of Blake Snell, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. Smith’s 35,4 percent opponents’ chase rate is tied for 12th-best in that same set of 114 pitchers, and the spin rate on his heater falls in the 80th percentile among MLB pitchers.

Of course, all of those reasons are also cause for Miami to hang onto Smith. The Marlins aren’t going anywhere in 2019 and aren’t likely to contend in 2020, either, but they can keep Smith on the roster via arbitration all the way through the 2023 campaign. And for as solid as Smith has been on a per-inning basis, he’s yet to throw more than 77 1/3 innings in a big league season. He reached that level in 2018 before a Grade 3 lat strain ended his season, and his innings in 2019 are expected to be limited as a result. Other clubs may even be more interested in Smith if he proves durable enough to handle a full season of starts (or close to it), and Miami will have ample opportunity to market him down the road if the concept of moving him becomes more palatable.

As for the rest of the Marlins’ rotation, the bulk of their arms are even longer-term pieces. Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez and Trevor Richards are all controllable for five years beyond the current season, while fresh faces like Jordan Yamamoto and Zac Gallen can be controlled through at least 2025. Righty Jose Urena could very well have been attainable, but he’s now on the 60-day injured list due to a herniated disk in his back.

Frankly, the Marlins don’t seem to have many trade assets at all if the plan is indeed to hang onto their intriguing mix of young arms. Veteran Neil Walker has had a productive year and could be flipped for a modest return if he continues to perform once he’s recovered from the quad strain that currently has him on the IL. Fellow free-agent pickups Curtis Granderson and Sergio Romo haven’t been effective (particularly in the case of Granderson), and veteran Starlin Castro is having the worst offensive season of his career. It could be a quiet deadline for the Marlins unless they surprise by changing course with regard to their controllable starters and/or opt to pursue some bats with a good bit of team control remaining.

The Marlins have placed southpaw Caleb Smith on the 10-day injured list with inflammation in his left hip, according to Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. The injury bothered Smith even before his start against the Brewers on Thursday, per McPherson, but manager Don Mattingly indicated it isn’t serious.

Smith has seen his ERA climb by almost a run and a half since the beginning of May, yet he has still been one of the few bright spots for this season’s Marlins. The 27-year-old has given Miami 66 innings of 3.41 ERA/4.18 FIP ball with 11.18 K/9 and 2.73 BB/9. Although Smith owns the majors’ third-lowest groundball percentage among starters (29.1), he has helped offset that with the league’s sixth-highest K rate.

The absence of Smith means the Marlins will have to go outside their rotation for a starter for the first time this season. Health-wise, the club has been fortunate enough to deploy Smith, Pablo Lopez, Jose Urena, Sandy Alcantara and Trevor Richards for all of its starts this year. With Smith going to the shelf, Triple-A righty Elieser Hernandez is a candidate to move into the Marlins’ rotation, McPherson suggests, though he notes they could rely on relievers in lieu of a traditional starter.

JUNE 29: Smith will go under the knife next month, Frisaro reports on Twitter. It seems likely, then, that he’ll be targeting a return next year.

JUNE 25, 10:01pm: Smith says he’s considering surgery and is likely going to miss the rest of the year, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweets.

7:49pm: Marlins lefty Caleb Smith, who had already been placed on the DL, has been diagnosed with a grade 3 lat strain, per a club announcement. Unfortunately, that’s the most severe designation for a muscle injury.

The Miami organization has not yet given an indication of how long Smith may be down. Given the general diagnosis, though, a lengthy absence seems all but certain. Last year, Noah Syndergaard missed nearly five months with a broadly similar injury.

There are obviously any number of details to the injury that could impact the time Smith spends away. One of them is the simple fact that the Marlins have no reason to rush him back. After all, this was a rebuilding season from the outset.

Smith, who’ll turn 27 this summer, has been perhaps the most notable success story to date for the new Marlins’ leadership in its first year in office. After coming over in an offseason swap with the Yankees, Smith blossomed into the Marlins’ most effective starter and a potential long-term asset. Through 77 1/3 innings on the season, Smith worked to a 4.19 ERA with an impressive 10.2 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9.