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Cade Povich

Grayson Rodriguez To Start Season On IL; Andrew Kittredge To Miss Months

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TODAY: Rodriguez was diagnosed with elbow inflammation and he received a cortisone shot to deal with the issue, Hyde told reporters (including the Baltimore Banner’s Andy Kostka).  The plan is for Rodriguez to be shut down for 7-10 days to let the shot take effect, and the right-hander will then start a throwing program.

March 8: Kittredge underwent left knee debridement on Friday, the Orioles revealed to reporters, including Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The team described the procedure as “successful.”

March 7: Orioles manager Brandon Hyde provided members of the media with updates on various injured players today. Most notably, right-hander Grayson Rodriguez is going to start the season on the injured list due to some discomfort in his elbow/triceps area, though Hyde emphasized that there’s no concern about the righty’s ligament. Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner was among those to relay the info. Additionally, righty Andrew Kittredge is going to have arthroscopic knee surgery and will miss multiple months, per Kostka.

Rodriguez had diminished velocity in his most recent start and later told reporters that he felt “sluggish” and “flat” during the outing. Hyde eventually revealed that Rodriguez was battling some soreness in his triceps. It seems the club is still working on firming up the diagnosis but has enough info to determine that Rodriguez won’t be ready by Opening Day. “It’s not a ligament issue, so we’re not concerned about that,” Hyde said, per Kostka. “But it’s going to result in some missed time. … Right now, we’re still getting opinions.”

Time will tell about the long-term picture, but the O’s will have to make a rotation pivot in the short term. Without Rodriguez, four rotation spots will be taken by Zach Eflin, Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano and Dean Kremer. Hyde said today that the final rotation spot will likely come down to Albert Suárez or Cade Povich, per Kostka.

Suárez, 35, spent the 2019 to 2023 seasons pitching in Asia. He returned to affiliated ball with the O’s last year and had good results in a swing role. He made 24 starts and eight relief appearances, tossing 133 2/3 innings with a 3.70 earned run average. He only struck out 19.1% of batters faced but limited walks to a 7.6% clip. He projected to be in a long relief role to start the year. If he jumps into the rotation, perhaps Roansy Contreras will take over as the long man since the O’s are stretching him out.

Povich, 25 in April, was a top 100 prospect going into 2024 but didn’t excel in his first taste of the majors. He made 16 starts last year with a 5.20 ERA, 19.6% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate. But his minor league numbers were better, as he logged 77 2/3 Triple-A innings last year with a 3.48 ERA, 28.2% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate. He still has options and could be in the Triple-A rotation if not in the majors.

Ideally, one of those arms will cover the rotation spot for a few turns while Rodriguez gets healthy. Though if it’s eventually determined that he’s facing a longer absence, perhaps the club will look for external help. The free agent market still features Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Spencer Turnbull and others. Pitchers such as Jordan Montgomery and Taijuan Walker are likely available on the trade block.

As for Kittredge, it’s an unfortunate blow since the O’s made a notable investment in him less than two months ago. In mid-January, Baltimore signed Kittredge to a one-year, $10MM deal, hoping to have him take up a key role in the club’s bullpen. But he recently experienced some soreness in his left knee and was sent for some testing, which revealed the need for this operation.

This isn’t the first time an injury has intervened in the righty’s career. Kittredge had a 1.88 ERA in 71 2/3 innings for the Rays in 2021 but then Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his next two seasons. He stayed healthy last year after being traded to the Cardinals and tossed 70 2/3 innings with a 2.80 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate and 45.2% ground ball rate. That spurred the O’s to give him an eight-figure deal but it now appears it will take several months for them to receive any kind of return on that investment.

Without Kittredge, the O’s still have many strong relief options, including Félix Bautista, Yennier Cano, Keegan Akin, Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto. If the Kittredge injury sends them looking for external options, guys like David Robertson, Phil Maton and Joe Kelly are unsigned.

As for shortstop Gunnar Henderson, who is dealing with an intercostal strain, Hyde said he is still getting treatment. Per Jake Rill of MLB.com, Hyde said Jackson Holliday will be getting some shortstop reps and possibly Jordan Westburg as well, with the O’s looking to build contingency plans for the event Henderson misses time. Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball adds that Liván Soto and Luis Vázquez are also possibilities.

Both Holliday and Westburg played lots of shortstop in the minors and should be relatively fine in moving over there to cover for a bit, though they would create holes elsewhere. Holliday projects as the regular second baseman and Westburg the third baseman. Coby Mayo or Ramón Urías could perhaps cover third if Westburg is at short, though it sounds like Hyde might have a slight preference for Holliday, which would create a hole at the keystone. Urías has lots of second base experience, but roughly a quarter of the time he’s spent at third.

As for Soto and Vázquez, neither is on the 40-man roster at present. They both have plenty of minor league experience at second, third and short but they have played just 46 major league games between the two of them.

Orioles Select Vinny Nittoli

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1:07pm: The Orioles have announced the selection of Nittoli’s contract. In corresponding moves, left-hander Cade Povich was optioned to Triple-A and Coulombe was transferred to the 60-day IL.

8:45am: The Orioles are selecting the contract of right-hander Vinny Nittoli, as MASN’s Roch Kubatko reported this morning. The righty signed with the club on a minor league deal earlier this month. The club will need to make a corresponding 40-man move in order to add Nittoli to the roster, though that could be accomplished by transferring lefty Danny Coulombe to the 60-day injured list.

Nittoli, 33, was a 25th-round pick by the Mariners back in 2014 and has spent his decade in professional baseball largely as a minor league journeyman. After spending a few years in Seattle’s minor league system, Nittoli departed affiliated ball in 2017 and spent two years pitching in the independent American Association before catching back on in the minors. Over the course of his professional career, he’s suited up for the Mariners, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Yankees, Phillies, Cubs, Mets, A’s, and now the Orioles at the Triple-A level. In all that time, however, he’s received only scattered playing time in the majors with 13 big league appearances to his name.

More than half of those appearances came with the A’s earlier this season. He pitched eight innings of work in total with Oakland, and performed to a strong 2.25 ERA with five strikeouts against two walks. The righty has actually received similarly brief cups of coffee in the major leagues in each of the last four seasons, having first made his big league debut with the Mariners back in 2021. In all, Nittoli sports a 3.07 ERA despite a lackluster 5.02 FIP and a strikeout rate of just 16.4% in 14 2/3 innings of work at the big league level.

Despite those relatively pedestrian numbers at the big league level, it isn’t hard to see why the Orioles would be interested in giving Nittoli a look at the big league level. He’s been nothing short of dominant at the Triple-A level this year with a 2.73 ERA in 26 1/3 innings of work split between the affiliates of Oakland and Baltimore. That already impressive figure is made all the more intriguing by the fact that the majority of those innings came in the inflated offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League, where the Athletics’ affiliate in Las Vegas plays. Nittoli has paired those strong run prevention numbers with an eye-popping 36% strikeout rate at the level this year, suggesting that there could be a meaningful improvement in skills to go along with the results.

Altogether, Nittoli’s resume is interesting enough for the Orioles to give him a shot in their bullpen mix. The club’s relief corps has been more or less league average this year, rankings 14th in baseball with a 3.84 ERA, but there’s certainly room for improvement ahead of the club’s back-end duo of Yennier Cano and Craig Kimbrel, particularly after Coulombe underwent surgery last month. Right-hander Bryan Baker, for example, can be optioned to the minors and has struggled to a 5.14 ERA and 4.38 FIP in 14 innings of work with the club.

Orioles Select Cade Povich

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June 6: Baltimore has now formally selected Povich’s contract from Triple-A Norfolk, per a team announcement. Left-hander Nick Vespi was optioned to Norfolk in a corresponding 26-man roster move. The Orioles’ 40-man roster is now at capacity.

June 5: The Orioles are calling up pitching prospect Cade Povich to start tomorrow’s series finale with the Blue Jays, manager Brandon Hyde told the team’s beat (X link via Danielle Allentuck of the Baltimore Banner). Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reported this morning (on X) that Povich was meeting the team in Toronto, initially as a member of the taxi squad.

It’s the first call for the 6’3″ left-hander. Povich, a University of Nebraska product, was a third-round pick of the Twins in 2021. He was in High-A in the Minnesota organization when the O’s acquired him at the ’22 deadline. Baltimore sent closer Jorge López, then in the midst of an All-Star season, to the Twin Cities for Yennier Cano, Povich, and two other minor league pitchers.

The move was an unpopular one among the clubhouse and with a large portion of the fanbase considering the O’s were on the fringe of playoff contention. Yet it has become an unquestioned win for Baltimore, as Cano almost immediately blossomed into one of the best relievers in the game. Povich, now 24, is one of the more talented pitchers in their system.

Povich split last season between Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk, logging 126 2/3 innings across 28 starts. A cumulative 5.04 earned run average isn’t particularly impressive, but Povich was one of the better strikeout pitchers in the minors. He fanned 171 hitters, behind only Drew Thorpe and Tobias Myers among all minor league pitchers. While that’s partially a reflection of Povich’s durability, his 31.1% strikeout rate was also well above average.

That has continued over 11 starts with Norfolk in 2024, this time leading to better run prevention. Povich has punched out 32.5% of batters faced en route to a 3.18 ERA in 56 2/3 innings. His 9.1% walk rate is a little higher than ideal for a starting pitcher, but it’s an encouraging overall showing just the same.

Povich isn’t the same caliber of prospect as Baltimore’s most touted position players (e.g. Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo). He’s generally viewed by evaluators as a potentially solid starting pitcher. Baseball America and The Athletic’s Keith Law each slotted him in the back half of the O’s top 10 prospects over the offseason.

Law praised Povich’s changeup and curveball, while BA lauds the arm-side run on his fastball. FanGraphs ranks him fifth in the system and as the sport’s #92 prospect overall, with praise for the deception in his delivery and his collection of offspeed pitches. Povich will need to continue improving his strike-throwing, but there’s broad agreement that he has the repertoire to be a big league starter.

He steps into a rotation that lost John Means and swingman Tyler Wells to elbow surgery last week. Baltimore is operating with a starting five of Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Cole Irvin and Albert Suárez. Righty Dean Kremer is shelved by a triceps strain but could return this month. It’s a strong top three, but the rotation depth is a relative question mark on a very good team that is off to a 39-21 start. The O’s will likely be linked to starting pitchers in trade rumors over the next two months.

Povich will look to make a good initial impression as the front office evaluates their back-end starters before the deadline. He is not on the 40-man roster, but the O’s already have an opening. They’re carrying the maximum 13 pitchers on the active roster, so they will need to send out another pitcher tomorrow.

Big Hype Prospects: Abbott, Brown, Encarnacion-Strand, Povich, Sheehan

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With so many clubs needing to plunge into the minors for pitching reinforcements, let’s put more attention on this next wave of arms.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Andrew Abbott, 24, SP, CIN (AAA)
31.1 IP, 13.21 K/9, 4.02 BB/9, 3.16 ERA

Abbott walked all over the Southern League earlier this season, posting a 1.15 ERA with 20.68 K/9 and 1.72 BB/9 in three starts. The Reds got him out of there in a hurry – possibly because the pre-tacked ball used in that league was obscuring aspects of his development. Since arriving in Triple-A, Abbott has reverted to a good-not-great trajectory and there’s still risk he’ll eventually land in the bullpen. From a stuff perspective, he has a starter’s repertoire. Like most young pitchers, Abbott’s command can be inconsistent and mostly draws negative comments. There’s reason for concern about home run prevention, especially at Great American Ball Park.

Ben Brown, 23, SP, CHC (AAA)
24 IP, 13.50 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 3.75 ERA

Brown was acquired from the Phillies in the David Robertson trade. Like Abbott, Brown dominated the Southen League (20 IP, 0.45 ERA) en route to a quick promotion. He’s continued to miss bats, albeit with a couple red flags. Per a statistical source, hitters have averaged a 91.3-mph exit velocity against Brown in Triple-A. It’s a small sample concern for now. Inconsistencies with his command remain on display, and the relief risk is palpable. While his fastball, slider, and curve are all viewed as above-average offerings, the lack of command and changeup are traits of pitchers who eventually land in the bullpen. We’ve seen plenty of guys succeed with non-traditional repertoires lately, but they usually rely on some sort of unicorn trait. I’m unaware of Brown fitting this mold.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 23, 1B/3B, CIN (AAA)
146 PA, 13 HR, .346/.384/.721

Prospects like CES tend to create a lot of arguments among the general public. He was one of the top minor league performers in 2022, and he’s repeating the effort this season. However, poor plate discipline and a hefty swinging-strike rate introduce considerable risk. There’s also doubt about his ability to stick at third base. Cincinnati has already conceded this by using him 17 games at first, seven at DH, and seven at third. Few first basemen are this ill-disciplined. Of qualified first basemen, only Brandon Drury, Gio Urshela, and Ryan Mountcastle have walk rates below 6.0 percent. Drury and Urshela aren’t really first basemen. On the other hand, CES punishes baseballs when he connects, averaging 92.2-mph on contact. If he can mount any sort of resistance to the inevitable bevy of breaking balls out of the zone, he could develop into a legitimate 40-homer threat.

Cade Povich, 23, SP, BAL (AA)
40 IP, 13.73 K/9, 3.83 BB/9, 4.50 ERA

Acquired in the Jorge Lopez trade, Povich probably deserves inclusion in the latter portion of Top 100 lists. The southpaw doesn’t have any overwhelming traits, but the total package resembles many adequate left-handers around the league. Povich’s basic stats suggest cause for both optimism and skepticism. His 2.20 FIP and 2.47 xFIP are a sight better than his 4.50 ERA – largely due to a .356 BABIP and 62.2 percent strand rate. In the minors, such stats can be more than the “luck” we generally attribute them to in the Majors, and Povich also had a poor strand rate in 2022. It could indicate issues pitching out of the stretch. I’ve reached out to a couple contacts for their thoughts.

Worth mentioning, the Eastern League is not using the pretacked ball.

Emmet Sheehan, 23, SP, LAD (AA)
44 IP, 15.55 K/9, 3.68 BB/9, 1.64 ERA

The Texas League also isn’t using the pretacked ball. Sheehan started to generate hype late last season, culminating in a successful stint in the Arizona Fall League. Sheehan is overwhelming the Double-A competition as evidenced by a 20.1 percent swinging strike rate, .176 BABIP, and 97% strand rate. Such figures indicate luck, but they also speak of an ability to miss bats with impunity. The star of the show is a double-plus changeup. A prospect watcher tipped me off last season about changeup artists – they tend to overperform in the minors. At the time, we were discussing Grayson Rodriguez. Like the other pitchers we’ve covered today, Sheehan’s command sparks comments about a future in the bullpen. Scouts also seem to dislike his mechanics – he tends to fall off hard to the first base line. I tend to ignore such comments. Goofy mechanics may (or may not) increase injury risk, but they also lead to unusual looks for hitters.

Three More

Matt McLain, CIN (23): McLain, who we discussed in this section last week, has rushed out to a heady .380/.456/.600 performance in 57 Major League plate appearances. Red flags include a .531 BABIP, modest exit velocities, and 28.1 percent strikeout rate. However, McLain is showing power, advanced plate discipline, and a high rate of swinging contact (7.3 percent SwStr%).

Zach Dezenzo, HOU (23): Although not yet on the radar for top prospect status, Dezenzo is quickly accelerating through the Astros system as a third baseman. A scout brought him to my attention a month ago. He’s a low-angle, line-drive machine, leading to high BABIPs. There’s considerable swing-and-miss in his game, introducing risk of stalling in the upper minors. Dezenzo was recently promoted to Double-A.

Johan Rojas, PHI (22): For fans of Esteury Ruiz, Rojas basically has a better version of a similar profile. He doesn’t visually look like Alfonso Soriano the way Ruiz does, but you can easily discern the athletic ability. Unlike Ruiz, he’s already regarded as a plus center fielder. Already on the 40-man roster, Rojas seems likely to ascend to Triple-A in the coming weeks.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Orioles Trade Jorge Lopez To Twins

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10:11am: The Twins and Orioles have announced the trade.

9:36am: The Twins and Orioles are in agreement on a trade sending All-Star closer Jorge Lopez from Baltimore to Minnesota, as first reported Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Sun. The Twins are sending left-handed pitching prospect Cade Povich, right-hander Yennier Cano and a pair of pitching prospects to Baltimore in return, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports. Right-hander Juan Nunez and lefty Juan Rojas are the other two names in the deal, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan.
Jorge Lopez | D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports

Lopez, 29, has enjoyed one of the most remarkable turnarounds in Major League Baseball this season, going from a waiver claim at risk of losing his roster spot in Baltimore for much of last season to a first-time All-Star who’s pitched his way into the ranks of the game’s elite relievers. The former second-round pick and top prospect never took off as a starting pitcher but has been outstanding since moving to the bullpen on a full-time basis late last season. Thus far in 2022, Lopez has tossed 48 innings with a 1.68 ERA, a 27.6% strikeout rate, an 8.7% walk rate and an enormous 60% ground-ball rate that ranks fifth in baseball among MLB relievers.

It’s a short sample, to be sure, but Lopez’s move to the ’pen last August served as a portent for the breakout to come. He began heavily favoring his sinker over his four-seamer, watched both his ground-ball rate and velocity make substantial jumps, and tossed 8 1/3 innings with just two runs, a 10-to-2 K/BB ratio and a 66.7% grounder rate. Dating back to last year’s shift to to the bullpen, Lopez has a 1.75 ERA, 27.9% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate, 61% grounder rate and a 98 mph average velocity on his sinker.

The Twins are clearly confident in his ability to sustain this newfound production, and adding to his appeal is the fact that Lopez is controlled all the way through the 2024 season. He’s also earning an eminently affordable $1.5MM this year, so he’ll barely impact the 2022 payroll and won’t break the bank in either 2023 or 2024.

Lopez gives the Twins a power-armed closer to pair with flamethrowing rookie Jhoan Duran and breakout righty Griffin Jax at the back of what has been an otherwise awful bullpen. Much like Duran and Jax, Lopez gives manager Rocco Baldelli the flexibility of knowing he can cover more than one inning, if needed. Eleven of Lopez’s 44 appearances this season have seen him record at least four outs.

Headlining the Orioles’ return for Lopez is the 22-year-old Povich, whom Minnesota selected out of the University of Nebraska in the 2021 draft. A relatively soft-tossing lefty with good command in college, Povich’s velocity jumped into the 94-96 mph range upon his shift to pro ball. He’s made 16 starts with the Twins’ Class-A Advanced affiliate this season, pitching to a 4.46 ERA but a far more impressive 31.8% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 44.3% ground-ball rate. He ranked 22nd in the Twins’ farm system at both FanGraphs and MLB.com, and 21st at Baseball America. Each of those scouting reports peg Povich as at least a back-of-the-rotation arm with the potential to add more ceiling due to his projectable frame and the potential for even further velocity gains.

Cano, 28, received a $750K signing bonus as an international free agent upon leaving Cuba back in 2019. He made his big league debut this season and has surrendered 14 runs in 13 2/3 innings, flashing an average heater of 95.8 mph along the way. The 6’4″ righty has had a far more impressive showing in Triple-A St. Paul, working to a 1.90 ERA, 28.1% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate in 23 2/3 innings with the Saints.

That’s the first time in Cano’s career that he’s managed to string together a run of solid command, however. He’s walked 11 of the 70 big league hitters he’s faced (15.7%) and, when looking at his career as a whole, has issued a free pass to 12.2% of his opponents since signing in Minnesota. FanGraphs tabbed him 38th among Twins prospects earlier this year, labeling him as a potential single-inning reliever with command issues but an effective splitter.

Nunez is a 21-year-old righty who’s spent the year thus far with Minnesota’s affiliate in the Florida Complex League. He’s pitched to a 4.85 ERA with an enormous 36.2% strikeout rate and a solid 7.7% walk rate. He’s not particularly young for the level, but it’s an impressive K-BB profile even if the bottom-line ERA has been inflated by a .362 average on balls in play and a 55.2% left-on base rate.

Rojas, meanwhile, is pitching with the same FCL affiliate despite being three years younger than both Nunez and the average age of  players in the league as a whole. He’s turned in a 3.60 ERA in 30 innings while showing outstanding rate stats: 32.4% strikeout, 3.4% walk, 48.6% ground-ball. Obviously, both he and Nunez are extremely long-term plays, as neither figures to sniff the Major Leagues for several seasons. Still, adding a pair of live-armed prospects to the lower levels of the system right now will ideally give the O’s some minor league depth and upside once the upper-level group of current top prospects has begun to solidify itself in the Majors.

Baltimore won’t acquire anyone immediately ranked among the sport’s very best prospects — or even presently among the Twins’ very best farmhands — but Povich is the type of projectable college arm with some recent helium who could soon find himself ranked among the Orioles’ top arms. Still, it’s hard not to like the deal from the Twins’ vantage point, as they managed to address a dire need in the bullpen for both the current and two subsequent seasons without pillaging the top levels of their farm system. That should prove pivotal when looking to bolster the rotation and perhaps further deepen the bullpen and the bench in the final hours leading up to the deadline.

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