Byron Buxton

11:59AM: Buxton may not even require an IL stint, as Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that the Twins aren’t planning another roster move.

11:10AM: Twins outfielder Byron Buxton left yesterday’s game in the first inning due to what the club termed as right knee soreness, and Buxton was set to undergo an MRI to determine the extent of the injury.  According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link), there wasn’t any structural damage revealed, though Buxton might need around a week to recover.

This counts as good news, as given Buxton’s lengthy injury history, there was plenty of immediate concern when Buxton immediately left the field yesterday after sliding into second base on a leadoff double.  Even if a trip to the 10-day injured list seems probable, Rosenthal’s timeline would indicate that Buxton might only miss the minimum 10 days, though it’s possible the Twins might hold him out an extra day or two as a precaution.

Of course, missing Buxton for even 10 days is a big blow to Minnesota’s lineup, especially since the outfield was already thinned out when Alex Kirilloff was placed on the 10-day IL yesterday due to wrist inflammation.  Max Kepler is suddenly the last starting outfielder left standing, and Trevor Larnach and Kyle Garlick have already been called up from Triple-A.  That trio projects as the starting outfield for now, with Alex Gordon and Gilberto Celestino also on the active roster.  Jake Cave and Derek Fisher are among the more experienced outfielders still at Triple-A, though the Twins would need to add either player to the 40-man roster.

Buxton has played an even 500 games during parts of eight MLB seasons, as multiple injuries have hampered one of the sport’s most exciting all-around players.  When he has been able to play, Buxton has shown glimpses of his five-tool potential, such as the 4.2 fWAR and .306/.358/.647 slash line he posted over 254 PA (61 games) in 2021.  The seven-year, $100MM extension Buxton signed with the Twins in November reflected both his injury history and this high ceiling of potential, as millions more in incentive bonuses are available to Buxton if he can hit plate-appearance thresholds and secure at least a top-10 finish in MVP voting.

With the offseason in limbo, let’s take a look at a couple of pre- and post-lockout topics…

• ESPN’s MLB Insider Kiley McDaniel polled team executives and agents several weeks ago, asking industry members to predict how much activity would occur before the CBA expired. Those polled were conservative in their predictions, expecting little money to be spent and few free agents to leave the board. With the power of hindsight, we now know that money flew as numerous free agents departed the open market for rich team contracts. Recently, McDaniel again polled a group of agents, asking what to expect when the free agent market unfreezes. For the second time, the agents took a conservative view. The majority of polled agents felt team owners were big spenders in advance of the CBA’s expiration to undermine MLBPA arguments that clubs weren’t spending enough to be competitive. Once a new CBA is reached, these agents expect owners to tighten their purse strings and for free agents to sign for less than their pre-lockout counterparts. History suggests that teams will continue to spend after a new CBA is reached, but it remains to be seen if that trend will continue or if the agents will have their skepticism validated.
• In a more uplifting display of the agent-MLB team relationship, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes dives into the backstory of Byron Buxton’s recent extension with the Twins. Hayes notes that the 7-year, $100MM extension signed by Buxton took more than four years to negotiate, but was completed on the strength of president Thad Levine’s persistence and Buxton’s desire to be a lifelong Twin. Thanks to the unique incentives structure in the agreement, the contract in many respects serves as a perfect compromise between both parties. The 27-year-old Buxton can earn over $10MM in incentives during every year of the contract, depending on playing time and performance, while staying in Minnesota through his age-34 season. The Twins meanwhile, are on the hook for an annual (and palatable) $15MM salary after next year, and won’t have to pay Buxton superstar money any year that injuries prevent him from making a huge impact on the field. The contract defied industry expectations, per Hayes, as several rival teams expected Minnesota’s budget restraints to scuttle a deal. Ultimately, both sides stayed open-minded and got creative to satisfy the initial goal: to keep one of baseball’s most dynamic talents in a Twins uniform.

The lead-up to this past trade deadline for the Twins was highlighted by questions about Byron Buxton’s future in the organization. Minnesota discussed a long-term extension with his representatives at Jet Sports Management, but the club’s reported offer of an $80MM guarantee wasn’t enough to get a deal done. The Twins also fielded inquiries about Buxton’s availability in trade, but they ultimately elected to hold onto the star center fielder for the remainder of the season.

With Buxton now set to enter his final year of club control, the Twins are again faced with the question of how to proceed. The front office continues to explore both the possibility of a Buxton trade or renewed efforts at an extension, write Dan Hayes and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. While the club has remained in contact with Buxton’s camp this offseason, there’s been no progress yet on a deal. The sticking point in extension talks this summer, according to Hayes and Rosenthal, was the front office’s unwillingness to include incentives that could push Buxton’s earning potential around $100MM. Whether that’s still the holdup in talks isn’t clear.

The lack of progress on an extension could point towards a trade being a likelier outcome, but the Athletic writes that Minnesota chairman Jim Pohlad is hesitant to sign off on moving Buxton elsewhere. This summer, Pohlad forcefully pushed back against the notion of the Twins kicking off a long-term rebuild. Between Minnesota’s internal group of talented position players and ample payroll flexibility that should enable the front office to add multiple starting pitchers this winter, a return to competitiveness next season wouldn’t seem to be out of the question. That all adds up to a challenging decision on how the organization should proceed with Buxton, who is one of the game’s most electrifying talents when healthy.

The sport’s former top prospect, Buxton has demonstrated that upside when able to take the field. He’s perhaps the game’s best defensive outfielder, a former Gold Glove winner who has twice appeared on MVP ballots. And Buxton is coming off an equally remarkable offensive showing, hitting .306/.358/.647 with 19 homers and nine steals over 254 plate appearances in 2021. Among players with 250+ plate appearances, only Bryce Harper outhit Buxton by measure of wRC+.

Of course, the health caveat is an important one. Buxton has only once topped 500 plate appearances in a given year (511 in 2017). The 27-year-old landed on the injured list on two separate occasions this past season, losing six weeks to a right hip strain suffered while trying to beat out a ground ball and missing two months after fracturing his left hand on a hit-by-pitch. Buxton has also missed time with left shoulder, right wrist and concussion issues just within the past three years.

While the Twins are keeping all their options open, the team doesn’t have to pick an absolute course of action this winter. Just as they did over the summer, Minnesota could elect to simply hang onto Buxton into 2022. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn a salary in the $7.3MM range in his final year of arbitration. The Twins could enter the 2022 season with Buxton on the roster and reevaluate their long-term options depending on the team’s performance and Buxton’s health over the first half.

That’s obviously a risky course of action itself. There’s always the looming possibility Buxton suffers another injury. Even if he stays healthy and productive, the team might not rebound as hoped. In that instance, the club would be left marketing just a few months of Buxton’s services at next summer’s trade deadline, where their return would likely be inferior to what they could pull in from clubs this winter.

Appropriately valuing a player with Buxton’s combination of raw talent, huge production and lengthy injury history is certainly a challenge — for each of the Twins’ front office, the player’s reps and other teams exploring the possibility of a blockbuster trade. That’s made all the more true by Minnesota’s atypical competitive situation, coming off a last place finish but with a clear desire to compete in 2022. That confluence of factors means Buxton’s future could be one of the bigger storylines of the upcoming winter, even though there’s no guarantee of any sort of resolution this offseason at all.