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Bryce Harper

East Notes: Harper, Marlins, Rays, Montreal

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A reporter recently suggested to Nationals star Bryce Harper that he might eventually be able to get a $400MM contract, to which Harper memorably replied, “Don’t sell me short.” $400MM would, of course, be the largest contract ever. But FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron writes that Harper might be worth even more. At this point in his career, Harper is similar in value to a young Alex Rodriguez, and A-Rod’s $252MM contract with the Rangers paid him at a rate of about 12 times the MLB average salary at the time. Since then, the average MLB salary has doubled. While there are some slight differences between the two cases (for example, the fact that A-Rod was younger when he signed his deal than Harper will be when he’ll hit free agency following the 2018 season), Cameron argues that the difficulty now in finding good value on the free agent market should help compensate for them. That could make Harper worth something like $40MM-$50MM a year, and given that he’ll have barely turned 26 when he becomes eligible for free agency, his first free agent deal could potentially clear $500MM, or more if it includes deferrals.

  • As has been previously reported, the Marlins continue to look for extra starting pitching depth, and due to a tight budget, they’re focusing on hurlers who might be available on minor-league deals. MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro has the latest details on the team’s pitching search. Previous reports had linked the Marlins to Kyle Lohse, Alfredo Simon, Tim Lincecum and Cliff Lee, and those names continue to be in Miami’s mix — Frisaro notes that when Lincecum and Lee hold workouts, the Marlins plan to attend. Frisaro also mentions 37-year-old Aaron Harang, who at last check had not decided whether or not to play this season. The veteran innings-eater spent 2015 with the Phillies, posting a 4.86 ERA, 5.6 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 172 1/3 innings.
  • There’s an outside-the-box idea circulating in Canada, reports Francois Cardinal from La Presse (link in French) — business interests could buy half of the Rays and have them split their home games between the Tampa area and Montreal. The Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin has a summary of the plan. Having the team be based in two cities could potentially allow it to maximize television revenue, as games would be broadcast in both markets. Also, per-game attendance would increase because there would be fewer games in each city. Team-related income would be split between both ownership groups. Of course, Cardinal’s idea is far from reality at this point, and there are practical problems, like where in each city the Rays (who are currently trying to find a new stadium site in Tampa Bay) would play, and (as Topkin notes) whether the players association would approve of the arrangement, given the logistical difficulties it would presumably cause players.

AL East Notes: Yankees, Betts, Bogaerts, Porcello, Chavez

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There are several big-picture reasons for the Yankees’ lack of free agent spending this offseason, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan writes.  With a new collective bargaining agreement looming, the Yankees may be hesitant to commit millions more in player salaries until they know what the new luxury tax and revenue-sharing formulas will entail.  Sources tell Passan that the luxury tax limit is likely to be raised from $189MM and New York therefore has a better chance of getting under the new threshold to lower its yearly penalty rate.  Between cutting down on luxury tax payments and losing several huge contracts (Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia, etc.) over the next two seasons, it could position the Yankees to splurge in the incredibly star-studded 2018-19 free agent market.  The crown jewel of this free agent class is Bryce Harper, who has long been considered a future Yankees target — “their future marriage is considered so inevitable by most in the sport,” Passan writes.

Here’s more from around the AL East…

  • The Red Sox may not be in a rush to sign Mookie Betts or Xander Bogaerts to extensions, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes.  Even if Betts and Bogaerts continue to blossom into superstars, waiting another year to explore extensions might cost Boston only a couple of million dollars, a negligible amount for a big-market team.  The two players may themselves have reason to wait, as Speier cites the argument from Over the Monster’s Matt Collins that Betts and Bogaerts may want to see what the next CBA holds before committing to long-term deals.  Given the huge recent free agent contracts signed by players in their 20’s, Betts and Bogaerts also might not want to sign away any of their free agent years in an extension when a much larger score could await them down the road.
  • In a recent podcast interview with WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford, Rick Porcello discussed the decision process that went into signing his four-year, $82.5MM extension with the Red Sox last offseason.  Without that contract, Porcello would’ve been a free agent this winter on the heels of a pretty shaky 2015 campaign.  Despite the righty’s struggles, Bradford notes that Porcello still could’ve found himself a healthy contract on the open market — Jeff Samardzija and Ian Kennedy both landed large multi-year deals despite coming off of rough seasons themselves, and Porcello is four years younger than either of those pitchers.
  • Jesse Chavez’s arbitration hearing with the Blue Jays took place Friday and a decision is expected today, according to the Associated Press.  Chavez is arguing for a $4MM salary in 2016 while the Jays countered with a $3.6MM offer.
  • Mark Trumbo is excited to be an Oriole, he tells MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko, though he was surprised when the O’s acquired him from the Mariners since he didn’t know the club had interest.  Trumbo believes he’s a better first baseman than outfielder, though with Chris Davis now back at first for years to come in Baltimore, Trumbo says “it doesn’t matter to me one bit” where he slots into the lineup as long as it helps the team win.

NL East Notes: Harper, CarGo, Ozuna, Fernandez, Cabrera

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Agent Scott Boras says that if the Nationals want to extend Bryce Harper, they’ll have to initiate talks, Nats Insider’s Mark Zuckerman writes. “I think those are club dynamics,” Boras said Wednesday. “Whenever any team approaches me about any player, obviously we have dialogue with them. But at this point in time, Bryce is going to be there for three more years, very happy there. So we’ll just go forward.” The Nats control Harper through 2018, and GM Mike Rizzo recently suggested that extending him wasn’t the most pressing issue for him right now. “We’ve got quite a bit of control left on him,” said Rizzo earlier this week. “I’m sure that’ll be a discussion with myself and ownership in the future.” Of course, signing Harper long-term would be incredibly difficult, given his agent, his free agency timeline and the difficulty of establishing what an extension for a player so talented and so young ought to look like. There also doesn’t seem to be any progress toward an extension for starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg, Zuckerman writes. Here’s more from the NL East.

  • The Nationals had interest in a trade involving Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies at one point, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. There is currently nothing brewing between the two teams, however. The Rockies are reportedly willing to deal Gonzalez, as well as Corey Dickerson and/or Charlie Blackmon.
  • The Marlins aren’t currently actively looking to trade Marcell Ozuna, ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweets. They’re still open to offers, but it now appears more likely Ozuna will remain with the organization than that he’ll depart. Earlier this week it was reported that seven or more teams had interest in Ozuna, and the outfielder has been the subject of trade rumors for some time now, although Marlins exec Michael Hill recently denied that his team was shopping Ozuna. In any case, if the Marlins do ultimately decide to part with Ozuna, there will surely continue to be significant interest, since he’s barely 25, has lots of raw power, can play center field, and has held his own in parts of three big-league seasons.
  • The Marlins continue to discuss Jose Fernandez with “five or six teams,” a source tells FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi (who reports the news on Twitter). The Marlins’ price for Fernandez unsurprisingly and understandably remains high, and the team doesn’t appear to be particularly close to a trade. Here’s more on Fernandez.
  • The Braves had interest in infielder Asdrubal Cabrera before Cabrera ultimately agreed to terms with the Mets, Morosi tweets. It’s unclear where Cabrera would have fit with the Braves, but there surely would have been ample playing time in shaky infield that currently features Jace Peterson, Erick Aybar and Adonis Garcia as potential starters at second, shortstop and third, respectively. The Braves added utilityman Emilio Bonifacio today, and 3B/2B Gordon Beckham last week.

Extension Notes: Crawford, Belt, Keuchel, Harper

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Brandon Crawford didn’t want play anywhere other than San Francisco, which is why he was so insistent on full no-trade protection in his recent contract extension, CSNBayArea.com’s Alex Pavlovic writes.  Giants GM Bobby Evans and Joel Wolfe, Crawford’s agent, first discussed an extension last spring but talks didn’t really go anywhere, so discussions were re-opened in October while Evans was waiting for free agency to open.  As Pavlovic notes, locking Crawford up early means the Giants can now use the Gold Glove-winning shortstop as a selling point to attract free agent starters.  Crawford has his extension settled, and here’s some more news about other stars who may be in line for big multi-year deals…

  • With Crawford’s contract settled, Brandon Belt could be the next Giant to receive an extension, Pavlovic writes in a separate piece. Evans said he’s had some talks with Belt’s representatives but it’s possible they could settle his 2016 contract first before exploring a longer-term deal.  Belt’s concussion history isn’t an obstacle, as Evans said the Giants have “gotten very good medical info that doesn’t give us concerns about Brandon’s health.”  Belt hit .280/.356/.478 with 18 homers in 556 plate appearances last season, and while the Giants were still prone to sitting him against left-handed pitching, Belt posted a very respectable .802 OPS in 145 PA against southpaws.  He’s projected by MLBTR to earn $6.2MM in 2016, his second year of arbitration eligibility.  San Francisco doesn’t have any intention of trading Belt, Pavlovic adds, so rumors of the team’s interest in Chris Davis may be overblown.
  • Dallas Keuchel and the Astros are expected to discuss a long-term deal this offseason and both Keuchel and GM Jeff Luhnow speak to the Houston Chronicle’s Evan Drellich about the possible shape of these talks.  Keuchel is something of a “hard comp,” as Drellich notes, because of how few players have matched his exact career path.  MLBTR’s Steve Adams described some of the main points that will go into the Keuchel negotiations when news first broke of the extension talks in August.
  • Six rival executives gave their guesses about what a Bryce Harper extension might look like to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post, with guesses ranging from six years and $180MM to a record-breaking 15-year, $450MM deal with a player opt-out clause.  While the Nationals would be extending Harper at his peak of production, the team would also have some leverage since Harper’s current contract limits his earnings through that would’ve been some very expensive arbitration years.  The executives aren’t sure exactly what form a Harper extension could take, though it could be a moot point since they doubt an extension will be signed — most Scott Boras clients hit free agency rather than sign lengthy extensions with their original teams.  Kilgore’s piece is well worth a full read, as it’s a very interesting look at the numerous factors that will go into Harper’s next contract (whether it’s an extension or a free agent deal) and the six execs present a wide range of fascinating contract scenarios.

Bryce Harper, Josh Donaldson Win MVP Awards

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Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper and Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson were named the most valuable players in their respective leagues, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced today. Harper was the unanimous choice for first place among the 30 who voted, whereas Donaldson took home 23 of the 30 first-place votes. Ballots for MVP voting go 10 deep and are based on a scale that awards 14 points for a first-place vote and then nine, eight, seven, six, five, four, three, two and one respectively down the list.

Paul Goldschmidt was the runaway choice for second place, collecting 18 second-place votes and 234 points. Joey Votto, Anthony Rizzo, Andrew McCutchen, Jake Arrieta and Zack Greinke each received second-place votes and finished third through seventh, in that order. Rounding out the remainder of the ballot were (in order) Nolan Arenado, Buster Posey, Clayton Kershaw, Kris Bryant, Matt Carpenter, Yoenis Cespedes, A.J. Pollock, Jason Heyward, Dee Gordon, Trevor Rosenthal, Curtis Granderson, Gerrit Cole and Adrian Gonzalez. (Full voting breakdown here.)

That Harper won shouldn’t come as a surprise, as he was widely believed to be the favorite for the award on the heels of a historically great age-22 season. (Winning in unanimous fashion is perhaps a mild surprise, as there are still voters who prefer their MVPs to come from playoff clubs.) The former No. 1 overall draft pick batted .330/.460/.649 and led the National League in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, home runs (42) and runs scored (118). Harper was consistent throughout the season, never posting a monthly OPS lower than .909, and his all-around contributions were valued at 9.9 wins above replacement by Baseball-Reference.com and 9.5 WAR by Fangraphs.

Shifting to the American League, Mike Trout unsurprisingly finished runner-up and received all seven of the other first-place votes that did not go to Donaldson. The top two finishers combined to receive all but one of the first- and second-place votes, with Nelson Cruz receiving one second-place vote. Donaldson’s final point total was 385, with Trout coming in at 304. Rounding out the top 20 (in order): Lorenzo Cain, Manny Machado, Dallas Keuchel, Cruz, Adrian Beltre, Jose Bautista, David Price, Jose Altuve, Miguel Cabrera, Edwin Encarnacion, Prince Fielder, Chris Davis, J.D. Martinez, Jason Kipnis, Kevin Kiermaier, Kendrys Morales, Chris Sale and Mookie Betts. (Full voting breakdown here.)

Donaldson’s first season with the Blue Jays was everything Toronto could’ve hoped for and then some when trading Brett Lawrie and three prospects for him last offseason. The 29-year-old batted .297/.371/.568 and blasted 41 homers, leading the American League in both runs scored (122) and RBIs (123). In addition to his outstanding offensive contributions, Donaldson ranked among the game’s elite at third base, saving 11 runs above the average defender, by measure of Defensive Runs Saved and nine runs above average per Ultimate Zone Rating. B-Ref (8.8) and Fangraphs (8.7) were more or less in agreement on Donaldson’s value in terms of wins above replacement.

NL East Notes: Nats, Harper, Marlins

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Though both the Braves and Nationals collapsed over the last few months of the season, Jeff Schultz of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution still feels Washington is in the better position going forward.  The Nats will lose some big pieces in free agency this winter but they “can fix a lot with a manager who can take charge of the clubhouse and a few leaders on the roster. They have more proven major-league talent than the Braves,” Schultz writes.  Here’s some more from around the division…

  • Bryce Harper wasn’t in the Nationals’ lineup on Monday, an absence GM Mike Rizzo confirmed was due to the outfielder’s part in the dugout fracas with Jonathan Papelbon during Sunday’s game.  Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post has quotes from both Rizzo and Harper about the situation, and she also expresses some incredulity that Harper was punished for essentially acting in self-defense.
  • The Papelbon incident doesn’t exactly help the Nationals’ chances of keeping Harper on a long-term contract, Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post writes.  Boswell’s piece examines the many changes that will come to the Nats this winter due to free agent departures and other moves, leaving remaining veterans like Ryan Zimmerman dismayed that the likes of Ian Desmond or Jordan Zimmermann could depart, though Zimmerman is still optimistic.  “Sometimes, shaking things up is what’s necessary. If every single person from this team came back, would I like our chances if we did it all again next year? Yes. But that’s not going to happen….But some really, really good things are coming to this team. ‘Mix up’ could be positive,” Zimmerman said.
  • The Marlins have played well in September, a performance MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro attributes to the clubhouse putting the season’s discord and drama behind them.  “Basically, the players united together.  They were tired of losing.  Tired of the internal bickering….So they responded by staying loose, having fun, and the wins followed,” Frisaro writes.  The leadership of Martin Prado and Jeff Mathis played a big part in this attitude shift, and Mathis’ teammates would love to see the veteran catcher brought back in free agency this winter.  Frisaro thinks the Marlins need to build on this, rather than create even more distrust by having another roster shakeup.
  • In other NL East news on MLBTR, check out this collection of Phillies Notes from earlier today.

Nationals Notes: Boras, Rizzo, Papelbon/Harper

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The Nationals might not be headed to the playoffs, but they’ve certainly owned the headlines today, thanks to the Jonathan Papelbon / Bryce Harper confrontation yesterday (and Papelbon’s subsequent suspension) and Max Scherzer taking a no-hitter into the eighth against the Reds this afternoon. Here’s the latest from Washington.

  • Scott Boras represents a number of key Nationals players, but he rejects criticisms that he has something to do with the team having underachieved lately, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. Boras represents Scherzer, Harper, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth, Danny Espinosa, and now Gio Gonzalez and Denard Span. Boras, though, points out that he also has several clients each on the Rangers, Cubs and Royals, all of whom are likely or definite playoff teams. “The issue is whenever I have had a number of players on the team, the vast majority of times it goes very well,” says Boras.
  • Nats GM Mike Rizzo’s deal goes through 2016 and contains a club option for 2017, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets. The Nats will reportedly keep Rizzo for next season, although the details of his contract do seem relevant, given the Nats’ high-profile collapse this season.
  • Public opinion understandably (and, from my vantage point, very justifiably) came down against Papelbon for his actions in his dustup with Harper, but responses from players were more mixed, pitcher-turned-commentator C.J. Nitkowski of FOX Sports writes. Some said Papelbon’s behavior was acceptable or that they “would have done the same thing,” seemingly proving Nitkowski’s point that “the clubhouse is like no other place.”
  • Another former pitcher, Dirk Hayhurst of VICE Sports, writes that the fight was the consequence of baseball’s strange culture in which “the preferred tool for teaching is assault, and no one has any idea what that lesson is actually being taught because all the important stuff is not written down anywhere.”
  • Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post, meanwhile, argues that criticism of Harper for the altercation is unfair. Harper did run out the ball on the play that led to the fracas, and he’s played hard this season. He’s also been accommodating of media and autograph requests. And he has, of course, played brilliantly, while some of his teammates have foundered.

Latest On The Jonathan Papelbon/Bryce Harper Altercation

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Bryce Harper and Jonathan Papelbon had to be separated by teammates after a dugout altercation during the eighth inning of today’s game between the Nationals and Phillies.  As the MLB.com video shows, the two exchanged words before Papelbon grabbed Harper by the throat and shoved him towards the dugout wall.  The issue apparently stemmed from Papelbon’s displeasure that Harper didn’t run out a fly ball that inning.  Somewhat incredibly, Papelbon remained in the game to pitch the ninth inning and was rocked for five runs (two earned) in what ended up as a 12-5 Nationals loss.  Here’s some reaction from around the game to this bizarre incident…

  • “I’m in the wrong there,” Papelbon said afterwards to reporters, including MLB.com’s Jacob Emert.  “I’ve talked to Bryce and told him how we feel and we’re on the same page now, which is good….Sometimes in this game there’s a lot of testosterone and there’s a lot of intensity that spills over, and I think that happened today. For me, I can’t allow that to happen in the middle of a game. You handle that after the games or allow the manager to handle that. In that light of it, I’m wrong.”
  • The Nationals have no choice but to part ways with Papelbon in the wake of this embarrassing situation, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman opines.  The team may have to end up releasing him outright and eating the $11MM owed to Papelbon for 2016 given that his trade value is at rock-bottom.  As Heyman notes, “several – and I mean several – major-league GMs declared at deadline time they wouldn’t ever consider touching Papelbon” due to his reputation as a bad clubhouse personality.
  • Matt Williams initially told reporters that the situation was just “a family issue,” though he later clarified that he didn’t see the incident when it actually happened (via tweets from James Wagner of the Washington Post) and only saw footage after his initial talk with the media.  Williams stated that he’s “livid about it” and wouldn’t have allowed Papelbon to keep pitching had he initially seen what happened.  As you might expect, Williams was heavily criticized for both letting Papelbon stay in the game and then criticized again for not being aware of the altercation.
  • Williams is widely expected to be fired in the wake of the Nationals’ rough season, though Heyman reports that the Lerner family considered firing Williams weeks ago but decided to stay the course since the team was still in the pennant race.  GM Mike Rizzo will return in 2016 for “one more chance,” though Heyman wonders if the Lerners could or should make a next managerial hire themselves since Rizzo hired Williams.
  • The Papelbon/Harper skirmish “will be a symbol of an entire season when everything went wrong and every hidden structural weakness in the franchise was exposed,” Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post writes.  Rather than write off 2015 to injuries and Williams’ managerial tactics, Boswell argues that the Nationals should take the opportunity to examine factors like “organizational culture” to payroll flexibility to even Ted Lerner’s tendency to negotiate free agent contracts directly with agent Scott Boras.

NL East Notes: Harvey, Harper, Lazo

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ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark takes a long look at the question of how the Mets ought to be handling righty Matt Harvey within the context of the broader state of knowledge on pitching injuries. It is an interesting read, though the bottom-line takeaway remains that even the experts still feel unable to provide clear guidance on how to handle post-Tommy John pitchers.

A few more quick notes relating to the NL East:

  • It’s time for the Nationals to consider whether to make a real run at attempting to extend Bryce Harper, writes Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post. As he notes, Harper is currently looking to polish off a historic season — his OPS+ of over 200 is something that a number of inner-circle Hall-of-Famers never reached, let alone at age 22 — which obviously gives him plenty of leverage. True, Harper is already under contract for a reasonable price tag next year — after reaching a two-year, $7.5MM, grievance-avoiding deal that has worked out well for Washington — and he can be controlled for two more seasons beyond. But signing a player like Harper, who is represented by Scott Boras, is probably less about market comps than it is creative business valuation and the imaginations of both sides. Giancarlo Stanton’s record $325MM guarantee would probably need to be smashed to get something done, Boswell suggests, and I’m inclined to agree.
  • Marlins lefty Raudel Lazo has overcome long odds to reach the big leagues this year, as Christina De Nicoloa of FOXSports Florida writes. Not only did he have to defect from his native Cuba and climb the ranks as a fairly unheralded signee, but he overcame consecutive Tommy John surgeries along the way. The 26-year-old has a small frame and lacks a high-velocity fastball, but he has consistently posted good strikeout-to-walk numbers in the minors.

Injury Notes: Harper, Gomez, Panik, Pence

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Bryce Harper was back in the Nationals lineup today, so the star outfielder seems recovered from yesterday’s collision with Derek Dietrich.  Harper was removed in the first inning of the 3-0 win over the Marlins after colliding with Dietrich on the basepaths.  Despite some dizziness and hip soreness, Harper passed concussion tests after the game and seemed no worse for the wear Monday, as he’s collected two hits (including a homer) and a walk in his first four plate appearances against the Phillies.  Needless to say, losing Harper for any length of time would’ve erased the Nats’ fading hopes of getting back in the playoff race.  Here’s the latest on some more serious injury news from around baseball…

  • Carlos Gomez will miss the Astros’ four-game series with the Rangers with a left intercostal strain, GM Jeff Luhnow told reporters (including Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle) though the strain isn’t though to be too serious.  Gomez suffered the injury during batting practice yesterday and underwent an MRI today to access the damage.
  • Joe Panik is likely to miss the rest of the season due to ongoing back problems, Giants manager Bruce Bochy told reporters, including CSNBayArea.com’s Alex Pavlovic).  “The odds lean more toward the season being over for him,” Bochy said. “I talked to him yesterday. He didn’t really feel a lot of improvement. He’s going to need some rest. I would be surprised if he plays, unless things work out really, really well and we get to October.”  Panik has only played in three games since August 1 due to his bad back, bringing a sour end to an otherwise tremendous season for the second baseman, as he hit .312/.378/.455 over 432 PA.  Panik’s status was a reason the Giants exploded trading for Chase Utley in August, though rookie Kelby Tomlinson has played very well as Panik’s replacement.
  • In other Giants injury news, Bochy also wasn’t sure if Hunter Pence would be able to return from an oblique strain.  “It may get to the point where we may feel it’s not worth the risk.  I don’t mean to be negative, but we have to be smart about this,” Bochy said.  Pence began taking dry swings today but there’s no indication about when he’ll start live batting practice.
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