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Bryan Shaw, Nick Avila Won’t Make White Sox Opening Day Roster

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March 28: The Giants informed reporters, including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, that Avila has been returned to them from the White Sox.

March 26: The White Sox have informed right-handers Bryan Shaw and Nick Avila that they won’t be part of the team’s Opening Day roster, James Fegan of The Athletic reports (Twitter link).  The two pitchers are at opposite ends of the experience spectrum, as Shaw is a 12-year MLB veteran in camp on a minor league contract, while Avila has yet to pitch beyond the Double-A level but was Chicago’s pick in the Rule 5 Draft.

Avila’s R5 status creates an immediate obstacle, since the Sox are required to keep him on their active roster for the entire 2023 season in order to fully obtain his rights.  (Or, at least 90 days on the active roster and the rest of the time on the injured list, in the event of an injury.)  If the White Sox don’t meet this criteria for Avila, they have to offer him back to the Giants, his original team, for $50K.  Fegan writes that the Sox might still look for ways to keep Avila around, though outside of a proper trade agreement with the Giants or a suddenly injury to Avila, Chicago’s options are fairly limited.

The 25-year-old Avila had a stunning 1.14 ERA over 55 1/3 combined innings at the high-A and Double-A levels in 2022.  It was the righty’s first full season as a reliever and he clearly took to the new role, also posting good strikeout and walk rates in addition to his minuscule ERA.  MLB Pipeline ranks Avila as the 20th best prospect in Chicago’s farm system, giving his fastball and cutter both 60-grades and noting how Avila’s five-pitch arsenal gives him “a more diverse repertoire than most relievers.”

Avila couldn’t keep the production up in Spring Training, however, posting a 7.20 ERA over 10 innings of work even though his underlying metrics were still good.  By contrast, Shaw had a 1.08 ERA in 8 1/3 Spring Training innings, but it wasn’t enough to land the 35-year-old a spot on the active roster.

Shaw isn’t an Article XX(B) free agent and thus didn’t have an automatic opt-out decision on March 25, though it is quite possible his minor league deal included some kind of different opt-out language.  His impressive spring numbers might certainly convince another team to take a look at Shaw if he does end up leaving the White Sox organization (either by opt-out or release), and a reunion with the Guardians can’t be ruled out considering his longstanding ties to Cleveland.

Shaw spent the last two seasons (and seven of his 12 MLB seasons overall) in Cleveland, though he struggled to a 5.40 ERA over 58 1/3 innings out of the Guardians bullpen in 2022.  Apart from a solid 2021 campaign, Shaw hasn’t been very reliable for most of the last five seasons, as he has a 5.23 ERA over 268 1/3 innings since the start of the 2018 campaign.

With Avila and Shaw out of the running, Gregory Santos and Keynan Middleton appear to be the favorites to land the final spot in the otherwise set Chicago bullpen.  Santos also came to the White Sox out of San Francisco’s farm system, and after being acquired from the Giants in a December trade, the righty has yet to allow a run over 8 1/3 spring innings.  Middleton is in camp on a minor league deal, and has a rockier 6.00 ERA in nine frames of Cactus League work.

AL Central Notes: Guardians, McKenzie, Twins, Shaw

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The Guardians appear to have mostly finalized their Opening Day roster, though president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti noted to reporters (including Mandy Bell of MLB.com) that “there is some chance that we make an external acquisition, and if we do, that will affect the composition of our roster.”

Barring such an acquisition, however, it seems likely that Cleveland will open the season with three catchers on their roster, as both Cam Gallagher and Meibrys Viloria appear set to make the team and back up starting catcher Mike Zunino. With multiple back-up options, the Guardians are hoping that Zunino will have a lighter workload in 2023 after missing the second half of the 2022 season due to surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. That comes at the expense of depth in the infield and outfield, however, as Gabriel Arias figures to be the sole infielder on the bench, with Will Brennan the sole outfielder. On the other hand, that should help both youngsters get additional playing time to aid their development. That’s particularly valuable for Arias, who played just 82 games last year between Triple-A and the majors after missing two months on the injured list last season.

More from around the AL Central…

  • Sticking with the Guardians, manager Terry Francona told reporters, including Bell, that right-hander Triston McKenzie was dealing with right arm tightness that led to him being pulled from his start today after just one inning. McKenzie figures to be a key cog at the front of Cleveland’s rotation this year after he posted a 2.96 ERA in 191 1/3 innings of work last season, so long as his current ailment doesn’t prove to be more serious than initially believed. In the event that McKenzie misses time, the club could look to a depth option like Konnor Pilkington or Jason Bilous to fill McKenzie’s spot in the rotation.
  • The Opening Day pitching staff in Minnesota came into further focus today, as the Twins optioned Bailey Ober to Triple-A, per The Athletic’s Dan Hayes, following their decision to reassign Jeff Hoffman, per Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Ober figured to be pushed out of the rotation picture in Minnesota following the club’s acquisition of Pablo Lopez from the Marlins earlier this offseason, and will act as depth in Triple-A following an 11-start showing in 2022 where he posted a solid 3.21 ERA (120 ERA+) in 56 innings of work. Hoffman, meanwhile, signed a minor league deal with the Twins last month in order to compete for a long relief role i the Twins bullpen. Instead, right-hander Cole Sands seems poised to fill that role, leaving Hoffman to decide whether or not to make use of his opt-out clause this coming Tuesday.
  • Shortly after alerting him that he would not make their Opening Day roster, the White Sox announced that they had released right-hander Bryan Shaw from his minor league deal with the club. The veteran Shaw sports a 3.92 ERA in 714 2/3 innings of work during his career and is now poised to look for another club interested in his services for his age-35 season. Shaw made a strong case for himself this spring, pitching to a 1.08 ERA in 8 1/3 innings during camp.

White Sox Sign Bryan Shaw To Minor League Deal

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The White Sox have signed veteran reliever Bryan Shaw to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training, the team announced. The CAA client will vie for a spot in Chicago’s bullpen over the next several weeks.

Shaw, 35, has spent the bulk of his career — including the past two seasons — in Cleveland. He struggled to a 5.40 ERA in 58 1/3 innings with the Guardians in 2022, thanks to one of the lowest strand rates of his career (66.3%) and one of the highest home-run rates he’s ever yielded (1.39 HR/9, 15.5% homer-to-flyball ratio).

Shaw was one of the most consistent and most durable relievers in the game from 2013-17, thrice leading the American League in appearances and twice leading all of MLB in that category. In that span, he tossed 358 2/3 innings of 3.11 ERA ball, which set the stage for a three-year, $27MM deal in Colorado that almost immediately proved regrettable for the Rockies. Shaw was tagged for a 5.61 ERA in two seasons with Colorado before being released and struggling with the Mariners the following season.

While things have gone poorly for Shaw dating back to 2018 — 5.23 ERA, 268 1/3 innings — his 2021 season offered a glimpse of his vintage form. He’s only one year removed from 77 1/3 frames of 3.49 ERA ball in his first of two seasons back in Cleveland. Even as he’s struggled, Shaw has maintained solid velocity (94.6 mph average four-seamer over the past couple seasons) and above-average ground-ball tendencies.

Shaw will give the ChiSox a durable veteran arm who can potentially be stashed in he upper minors, and if he’s able to round into 2021 form, he can help the Sox to weather the absences of Garrett Crochet (April 2022 Tommy John surgery) and Liam Hendriks (undergoing treatment for non-Hodgkins lymphoma). As things currently stand, Chicago’s primary late-inning relievers include Kendall Graveman, Joe Kelly, Aaron Bummer, Reynaldo Lopez and Jake Diekman.

Which Remaining Free Agent Relievers Are Coming Off The Best Seasons?

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The offseason floodgates opened this month, with an avalanche of free agent activity once the Winter Meetings got underway. Things have quieted down in recent days thanks to the holidays, but clubs are likely to again get back to attacking the free agent market in earnest this week.

Most of the winter’s top names are off the board, leaving teams to mostly look through lower-cost options as they search for upgrades on the margins of the roster. There are still a number of experienced options available, particularly for teams seeking to round out the bullpen. Using MLBTR’s free agent list, we find 47 pitchers who tossed at least 20 innings out of a team’s bullpen in 2022 and remain unsigned.

We’ll sort the remaining free agent relievers by various metrics of 2022 performance to identify some of the top arms. There are obviously other factors for teams to consider — quality of raw stuff, pre-2022 track record, the player’s injury history, etc. — but a brief snapshot on the top bullpen arms by last year’s performance should provide a decent starting point for players teams might target moving forward. (All figures cited, including league averages, are looking solely at pitchers’ outings as relievers).

ERA (league average — 3.86)

  1. Matt Moore (LHP), 1.95
  2. Alex Young (LHP), 2.08
  3. Matt Wisler (RHP), 2.23
  4. Wily Peralta (RHP), 2.72
  5. Brad Hand (LHP), 2.80
  6. Andrew Chafin (LHP), 2.83
  7. David Phelps (RHP), 2.87
  8. Ralph Garza Jr. (RHP), 3.34
  9. Jackson Stephens (RHP), 3.38
  10. Michael Fulmer (RHP), 3.39

Strikeout rate (league average — 23.6%)

  1. Daniel Norris (LHP), 30%
  2. Darren O’Day (RHP), 27.7%
  3. Andrew Chafin, 27.6%
  4. Matt Moore, 27.3%
  5. Aroldis Chapman (LHP), 26.9%
  6. Steve Cishek (RHP), 25.8%
  7. Chasen Shreve (LHP), 25.4%
  8. Will Smith (LHP), 24.9%
  9. David Phelps, 23.9%
  10. Noé Ramirez, 23.7%

Strikeout/walk rate differential (league average — 14.5 percentage points)

  1. Andrew Chafin, 19.8 points
  2. Daniel Norris, 19 points
  3. Darren O’Day, 17 points
  4. Chasen Shreve, 16.7 points
  5. Steve Cishek, 16.4 points
  6. Craig Stammen (RHP), 15.7 points
  7. Will Smith, 15.3 points
  8. Matt Moore, 14.8 points
  9. Ross Detwiler (LHP), 14.8 points
  10. Luke Weaver (RHP), 13.8 points

Ground-ball rate (league average — 43.5%)

  1. Luis Perdomo (RHP), 62.5%
  2. Joe Smith (RHP), 57.5%
  3. Alex Young, 55.7%
  4. Alex Colomé (RHP), 55.6%
  5. T.J. McFarland (LHP), 53%
  6. Craig Stammen, 52.6%
  7. Garrett Richards (RHP), 52.4%
  8. Bryan Shaw (RHP), 51.8%
  9. Andrew Chafin, 51.3%
  10. Jacob Barnes (RHP), 50.7%

FIP (league average — 3.86)

  1. Luke Weaver, 2.46
  2. Alex Young, 2.65
  3. Matt Moore, 2.98
  4. Andrew Chafin, 3.06
  5. David Phelps, 3.11
  6. Garrett Richards, 3.16
  7. Jackson Stephens, 3.45
  8. Michael Fulmer, 3.57
  9. Brad Hand, 3.93
  10. Darren O’Day, 4.04

Innings Pitched

  1. Matt Moore, 74
  2. Caleb Smith (LHP), 69
  3. Steve Cishek, 66 1/3
  4. Michael Fulmer, 63 2/3
  5. David Phelps, 62 2/3
  6. Hunter Strickland (RHP), 62 1/3
  7. Will Smith, 59
  8. Andrew Chafin, 57 1/3
  9. Bryan Shaw, 54
  10. Jackson Stephens/Hirokazu Sawamura (RHP), 50 2/3 each

Quick Hits: Turner, Cardinals, Girsch, Shaw

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Trea Turner is back in the Dodgers lineup for tonight’s critical Game 4 of the NLDS, even though Turner suffered a Grade 2 sprain in his right ring finger in yesterday’s game, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times).  Turner felt good enough in pregame warmups to play, and play in the field at shortstop, turning down Roberts’ option of only acting as the designated hitter.  X-rays were negative on Turner’s finger, and though Roberts said Turner “might take a day” with such an injury if it had happened in regular-season play, it wasn’t anything that would land a player on the injured list.

The Dodgers can hardly afford to lose such a key regular as they face elimination, down 2-1 to the Padres in the series.  Turner has also been one of Los Angeles’ hottest bats in the series, with two homers and a 1.154 OPS over his 13 plate appearances.  After singling in the eighth inning of Game 3, Turner hurt his finger while diving back to first base on a pickoff attempt.

More from around baseball…

  • General manager Michael Girsch is one of several members of the Cardinals front office whose contracts are up now that the season is over, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters (including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that he is hopeful of retaining all the staffers.  Girsch is the most prominent name, working in the organization since 2006 and acting in the GM role since June 2017, when Mozeliak was also promoted from GM to the PBO position.  Girsch’s history in the organization and the Cardinals’ track record of recent success would seemingly make it likely that he remains on a new contract, though that same organizational success could also naturally make Girsch or other front office members attractive to other clubs looking to make hires.
  • The Guardians outrighted Bryan Shaw off their 40-man roster at the end of the season, and he accepted the assignment rather than opt for free agency.  In somewhat unusual fashion, Shaw has also remained with the Guards throughout their postseason run, acting as taxi squad depth and continuing his season-long role as a mentor to Cleveland’s young pitchers.  “There’s no point in going home and just sitting there. I would rather stay here with these guys, root everyone on, and be here for moral support,” Shaw told Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.  A veteran of 12 Major League seasons, Shaw had limited success on the field this year, posting a 5.40 ERA over 58 1/3 innings out of the Guardians’ bullpen.

Outrights: Shaw, Barnes, Ogando, Liberato

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A few players on postseason teams have cleared outright waivers after recently being designated for assignment.

  • The Guardians have outrighted reliever Bryan Shaw to Triple-A Columbus, according to his transactions log at MLB.com. While the veteran has more than enough service time to elect free agency while still collecting the remainder of his guaranteed salary, Tom Withers of the Associated Press tweets that he’ll accept the assignment. Shaw remains in the organization and could technically factor into the playoff mix as a result, but it’s unlikely he’ll do so after Cleveland took him off the 40-man roster. Re-signed to a one-year deal over the winter, the veteran righty soaked up 58 1/3 innings across 60 appearances. He’s long been a durable bullpen workhorse, but his 2022 results were disappointing. Shaw posted a 5.40 ERA with a below-average 19.9% strikeout rate against an elevated 10% walk percentage. Cleveland will owe the 34-year-old a $500K buyout on a 2023 club option, and he’ll head to free agency at the start of the offseason.
  • Yankees reliever Jacob Barnes has gone unclaimed and been outrighted to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, the team announced. It was a quick turnaround for the righty, who was promoted for his team debut on Saturday. He threw 1 2/3 scoreless innings but was immediately DFA as the club cycled through fresh arms at the back of the bullpen. Barnes had a tough run earlier in the season with the Tigers, allowing a 6.10 ERA across 20 2/3 frames. He’s previously been outrighted and has more than enough service time to refuse the minor league assignment, although he could choose to follow Shaw’s path and stick in the organization as a depth option. He’ll hit free agency at the end of the year regardless if not added back to the 40-man roster.
  • Rays righty Cristofer Ogando was outrighted to Triple-A Durham over the weekend, per his MLB.com transactions log. The 28-year-old reliever has garnered a pair of brief looks with Tampa Bay, his first taste of MLB action. Ogando has made three big league appearances, working 4 1/3 innings of two-run ball. He’s spent the vast majority of the season in Durham, serving as a multi-inning bullpen arm and compiling a 4.56 ERA with a 23.5% strikeout rate and 11.5% walk percentage over 53 1/3 frames. Tampa Bay has outrighted Ogando off its 40-man roster twice this season, giving him the right to refuse this assignment in favor of free agency.
  • Padres outfielder Luis Liberato also went unclaimed on waivers last week, according to the transactions tracker. He’s been assigned to Triple-A El Paso. Signed to a minor league deal last offseason after ten seasons in the Mariners system, the left-handed hitter spent most of his year in El Paso. He had an impressive .261/.354/.541 showing over 99 games there, briefly earning his first major league call last month. Liberato only tallied five hitless at-bats with the Friars before losing his 40-man roster spot, however. He’s never previously been outrighted and doesn’t have the requisite service time to refuse the assignment, so he’ll remain in the organization for the time being. That’s largely immaterial, as he’ll qualify for minor league free agency at the end of the season unless added back to the 40-man roster in the intervening time. Liberato’s quality work with the Chihuahuas should land him a number of minor league offers this winter.

Guardians Select Bo Naylor, Activate Zach Plesac, Designate Bryan Shaw

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The Guardians announced a quartet of roster moves, including the activation of Zach Plesac from the 15-day injured list and the selection of Bo Naylor’s contract from Triple-A.  To create roster space, infielder Tyler Freeman was optioned to Triple-A, and right-hander Bryan Shaw was designated for assignment.

This will be Naylor’s first taste of Major League action, as the 22-year-old will get a chance at making his debut in the Show before the 2022 season is over, and the unique thrill of suiting up alongside older brother Josh.  The 29th overall pick of the 2018 draft, the younger Naylor is rated as the 58th-best prospect in the sport by Baseball America, while MLB Pipeline has Naylor rated 75th.

It hasn’t exactly been a smooth ride for Naylor in the minors, as after posting respectable numbers in his first two pro seasons, he and countless other prospects had to sit out the canceled 2020 minor league season.  While Naylor still got some reps at Cleveland’s alternate training site, the lack of proper game action seemed to severely impact him in 2021, when he hit only .189/.280/.332 over 335 plate appearances for Double-A Akron.

Remaining at Double-A to begin 2022, Naylor has now regained his status as a potential catcher of the future for the Guardians.  Naylor has hit a cumulative .263/.392/.496 with 21 home runs over 510 PA this season (220 PA at Double-A, 290 at Triple-A).  As per Pipline’s scouting report, Naylor got on track “by using a much more disciplined approach and utilizing the opposite field more often,” which also bodes well for his longer-term development as a big league-caliber hitter.

Cleveland has long prioritized defense at the catcher position, and Naylor has also drawn solid reviews for his blocking and framing ability.  He could continue the Guardians’ focus on glovework while also bringing some much-needed pop behind the plate, if he delivers on his potential at the MLB level.  Naylor is also the rare catcher who has five-tool ability, as he stole 20 bases in 24 chances in the minors this season.

As much as the Guards have relied on young players to fuel their run to the AL Central crown, it probably seems likely that the team will stick with the veteran duo of Austin Hedges and Luke Maile heading into the postseason.  Naylor’s presence does at least give the Guardians another potential option to consider for the playoffs, but this late-season call-up could be more about rewarding Naylor for his big season and taking a look to the future.  Hedges is a free agent this winter, so Cleveland could potentially head into 2023 with a tandem of Naylor and Maile (who is still arbitration-eligible), though there has been speculation that the Guardians could make a bigger move at catcher, such as past trade target Sean Murphy.

Plesac will start today’s game against the Royals, as the righty returns after missing just over a month of action.  Plesac suffered a fracture in his pinkie finger in rather unusual fashion, as he punched the mound in frustration after allowing a Jake Lamb home run in his last start on August 27.

The injury continued what has been a rough season overall for Plesac, who has a respectable 4.39 ERA over 127 innings but also a slate of unimpressive Statcast numbers.  It remains to be seen whether Plesac will get any consideration for a postseason start should the Guardians advance beyond the wild card series, and in the bigger picture, there have been some whispers about whether or not Cleveland could look to trade Plesac this winter.  Though Plesac still has all three years of arbitration eligibility remaining, questions about Plesac’s maturity and focus have been asked for the last few seasons, and the Guardians could prefer to sell relatively high on Plesac as a controllable young starter.

The DFA likely brings an end to Shaw’s latest stint in Cleveland, as the veteran righty returned on a one-year, $3MM free agent deal in March.  That contract contained a $4MM team option for 2023, yet it already looked like the Guards would instead use their $500K buyout rather than exercise Shaw’s option.  The 34-year-old has eaten a lot of innings (58 1/3) out of the bullpen this year, but has a 5.40 ERA and a below-average 19.9% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate.

This isn’t the first time Shaw has run into some struggles, as his 2021 season helped right the ship after a shaky three-year stretch with the Rockies and Mariners.  Returning to Cleveland on a minor league deal in the 2020-21 offseason, Shaw posted a 3.49 ERA over 77 1/3 innings and a league-leading 81 appearances.  However, his inability to recapture that form in 2022 now puts Shaw on the outside of the Guardians’ playoff roster plans.

Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions: American League

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Yesterday, MLBTR checked in on the status of seven players who have vesting options in their contracts for the 2023 season. Each can (or already has) lock in some guaranteed money or the right to opt out of their current deal based on their workload or finish in awards voting this year.

Over the next two days, we’ll turn our attention to players with less of a say over their contractual status. A host of contracts around the league contain club options for 2023. Some of them will be easy decisions one way or the other, while there are others that’ll be more borderline calls. With teams having to make these calls a little over two months from now, it’s worth taking a look at how these players are performing in 2022.

Today, we’ll start with the American League. We’ll follow up with a look at the Senior Circuit tomorrow.

Orioles

Baltimore signed Lyles to a $7MM guarantee last winter, taking the form of a $6MM salary for 2022 and at least a $1MM buyout on next year’s option. He’s been a fine back-end starter, working to a 4.35 ERA across 130 1/3 innings. Lyles has below-average strikeout, swinging strike and ground-ball rates, but he leads the club in innings pitched and is throwing plenty of strikes. He’s also drawn strong reviews for his work in the clubhouse with the team’s younger arms. A $10MM call is borderline for a 4th/5th starter type, but the Orioles have almost nothing on the books next season and could keep him around as a veteran stabilizer.

Red Sox

  • James Paxton, SP (team must decide on consecutive $13MM options this offseason; Paxton would have $4MM player option for 2023 if club declines)

Paxton signed a convoluted deal last winter that reflected his atypical situation. A mid-rotation caliber starter when healthy, he’s made just six starts over the past three years and hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. He’s making $6MM this season and could be a rotation option for a team that’ll see each of Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill hit free agency. The club will have to decide whether to trigger consecutive $13MM options (essentially a two-year, $26MM pact) this winter. If they decline, Paxton could opt in to a $4MM salary for 2023 or test free agency. How things play out largely depends on how Paxton looks down the stretch. Manager Alex Cora recently told reporters the southpaw will throw a simulated game on Friday and could soon head out on a minor league rehab appearance (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive).

  • Hirokazu Sawamura, RP (team holds option currently valued at $3.6MM; Sawamura holds player option for 2023 currently valued at $1.8MM if club declines)

Sawamura signed a two-year, $3MM guarantee with the Red Sox over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal also included a club option for 2023 valued anywhere between $3-4MM, depending on whether Sawamura held his roster spot and based on his number of appearances. MLBTR has confirmed that escalators have already pushed the value of the club option to $3.6MM; that price escalates by an additional $100K for reaching each of 45, 50 and 60 appearances this season. (He’s presently at 43 games). If the team declines, Sawamura would have the right to trigger a player option currently valued at $1.8MM. As with the club option, the player option price escalates by $100K for reaching 45, 50 and 60 appearances. If both sides bypass their respective options, Sawamura would receive a $1MM buyout.

It seems likely that Sawamura’s team option price will fall somewhere in the $3.8MM – 3.9MM range, with a $1.8MM gap between the value of the club and player options. That’s an acceptable price to pay for a solid reliever, albeit one who’s been relied upon more in lower-leverage innings. Sawamura has a 3.14 ERA in 97 1/3 innings since coming stateside, striking out a decent 23% of opponents with a strong 51.7% ground-ball rate. He’s had issues throwing strikes consistently, but he’s an affordable power arm for a middle innings group that has been one of the team’s biggest weaknesses. That the Red Sox haven’t given Sawamura much high-leverage work in spite of their bullpen struggles is enough of a red flag to put this one in some doubt, but it seems likelier they’ll keep him around.

Yankees

Severino barely pitched between 2019-21 because of injuries, including a Tommy John recovery. He returned to the rotation this season and pitched to an impressive 3.45 ERA through 16 starts before suffering a lat injury that’ll cost him at least two months. The injury history is a real concern, but Severino still looks like an above-average starter when healthy. He’s averaged around 96 MPH on his fastball, struck out 27.2% of opposing hitters and has a tiny 7.2% walk rate. The Yankees would have to be very pessimistic about his health outlook to buy out his age-29 season, particularly since it’s only a $12.25MM decision once the buyout price is taken into account.

Rays

Kiermaier hit .228/.281/.369 over 221 plate appearances before suffering a season-ending left hip injury. It’s the latest in a long line of major health issues for the 32-year-old, and the Rays are planning to buy out the three-time Gold Glove winner. It’s possible the team tries to circle back at a lower price point, but the career-long Ray is likely to hit the open market for the first time in his career.

Blue Jays

The Jays just acquired Bass from the Marlins at the trade deadline, fortifying their bullpen with a productive middle-innings arm. Bass has an excellent 1.49 ERA through 48 1/3 innings on the year, striking out 26.2% of opponents against just a 5.9% walk rate. It’s a career-best season at age 34, but Bass has a sub-4.00 ERA for five years running. He’s an underrated bullpen piece, and the Jays are sure to bring him back for what amounts to a $2MM decision.

White Sox

This is as easy a call as any team will have to make this winter. Anderson has been one of the game’s better players four years running. He’s an elite contact hitter and baserunner, and he’s cemented himself as the Sox’s franchise shortstop. His 2022 season has been dinged by injuries, including a recent hand ligament tear that’ll cost him most of the remaining schedule. Frustrating year aside, Anderson has hit at a quality .301/.339/.395 clip this season and been an All-Star caliber performer in prior years. The White Sox are keeping him around next year, and they can do the same in 2024 via $14MM option.

Harrison signed a one-year deal in Spring Training and got off to a dreadful start. The veteran utilityman has turned things on since the calendar flipped to June, though, and he now carries a roughly league average .242/.312/.385 line through 281 plate appearances. The Sox will have to make a $4MM call this offseason on whether to bring him back for 2023. They’ll probably look for an upgrade at second base, but that’s a reasonable enough sum to dedicate to a quality infielder off the bench. Chicago already has Leury García making decent money in that role, and they might prefer to focus their finances on adding to the back of the rotation and bringing back star first baseman José Abreu.

Guardians

Shaw is a longtime member of the Cleveland organization, having spent seven of his 11 MLB seasons there. He’s a durable bullpen workhorse who’s clearly a favorite of the coaching staff and front office, but his 2022 results have not been good. The 34-year-old righty owns a 5.36 ERA across 40 1/3 innings. He’s only striking out 17.7% of opponents, walking batters at an elevated 11.6% clip and has had some home run issues. The Guardians seem likely to go in another direction this offseason.

Twins

Sanó is a longtime member of the organization who’s capable of carrying a lineup with his power at his best. His platform season has been a disaster, though, and the Twins are sure to buy out his option. The 29-year-old underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his knee in May. He returned briefly but went back on the 60-day injured list last week with additional knee concerns. It’s not clear whether he’ll make it back this season. Sanó has an .083/.211/.133 line in 20 games this year after slightly above-average offensive performances in 2020-21.

Just as Sanó’s option is certain to be bought out, Gray’s is a no-brainer to exercise. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds in Spring Training, sending last year’s first-round pick Chase Petty to Cincinnati. Gray lost some time on the injured list, but he’s posted an impressive 3.19 ERA with slightly above-average peripherals through his first 16 starts in a Twins uniform. A mid-rotation starter of his caliber is a solid bargain at the cost of his option, which played into the fairly high asking price the Twins had to relinquish in the trade.

The Twins bought low on Bundy on a one-year free agent deal, hoping he’d rebound from a dismal 2021 and look more like the mid-rotation arm he resembled in 2020. That hasn’t really transpired, as the right-hander has a 5.01 ERA through 93 1/3 innings. He’s averaging a personal-low 89.2 MPH on his fastball, and while he’s throwing plenty of strikes, that lack of velocity has been reflected in both his 18.6% strikeout rate and higher than average home run rate. It seems likely the Twins will decline the option and reallocate that $10MM elsewhere, particularly with the recent acquisition of Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda’s expected return reducing the urgency to add to the rotation next season.

Astros

Acquired in a one-for-one deadline swap that sent Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta, Smith is having a generally disappointing year. He has a 4.17 ERA through 41 innings, striking out a personal-worst 24.1% of batters faced with a career-high 11.2% walk rate. Smith was an effective late-game arm as recently as a season ago and is still generating swinging strikes at a quality 14.2% clip, but the $12MM price tag seems likely to be too hefty given the mediocre strikeout and walk numbers.

Athletics

Piscotty has spent five seasons in Oakland after being acquired from the Cardinals heading into the 2018 campaign. He had an excellent first season in green and gold, but he’s been a well below-average hitter fours years running now. Going back to the start of 2019, Piscotty has a .231/.288/.380 line in just under 900 trips to the plate. He’s sure to be bought out and could be looking at minor league offers next winter.

Mariners

  • Ken Giles, RP ($9.5MM option, $500K buyout)

Seattle signed Giles to a two-year deal knowing he’d miss all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, hopes of a year two payout have been largely derailed by a finger issue that delayed his season debut and some shoulder tightness that has kept him out of action for the past month. Giles has thrown just 4 1/3 innings in a Seattle uniform, surrendering only one hit but four walks with six strikeouts. He’s averaged 94.8 MPH on his fastball, still solid but down from the 96.9 MPH range he showed during his incredible 2019 season with the Blue Jays. There’s a non-zero chance Giles returns — he’s currently on a rehab assignment in Triple-A — and dominates down the stretch to make Seattle think about the option. For the moment, though, it’s trending towards a buyout.

Rangers

Texas signed the 34-year-old Richards to a one-year guarantee over the offseason, hoping he’d build off the promise he showed in a late-season bullpen stint with the Red Sox. That hasn’t panned out, as he has a 5.35 ERA across 38 2/3 innings of relief. Richards has an excellent 52.1% ground-ball rate, but he’s not missing as many bats as one would like and he’s giving up a lot of hard contact. Texas seems likely to buy him out.

Texas signed Leclerc to an early-career extension in 2019, locking him in after a 1.56 ERA season the year before. He struggled with his control the following season, then missed virtually all of 2020-21 battling elbow issues that eventually culminated in Tommy John surgery. Leclerc returned to the mound in June but has a 4.01 ERA with a personal-low 20.4% strikeout percentage in 24 2/3 innings of generally low-leverage work. He’s still throwing hard and missing plenty of bats with his slider, so there’s a chance Texas takes an optimistic view and keeps him around. His deal also contains a $6.25MM option for 2024, so he’d be under control for multiple seasons if the Rangers are willing to give him a bit of a longer leash. This feels like it could go either way depending on how he performs down the stretch.

The Rangers signing of Calhoun to a one-year deal over the winter hasn’t panned out. He’s hitting .211/.269/.363 through 350 plate appearances and is currently on the injured list with a heel issue. It’s a second straight below-average season for the veteran outfielder, who’ll be 35 in October. The Rangers will almost assuredly decline the option and look elsewhere in right field as they aim for legitimate competitiveness in 2023.

Guardians Re-Sign Bryan Shaw

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March 25: The Guardians have formally announced the signing. In a corresponding roster move, right-hander Cody Morris has been placed on the 60-day injured list.

MLB.com’s Mandy Bell tweets that Morris recently underwent an MRI, which revealed a strained teres major muscle. He’s been shut down entirely and will be reevaluated after a period of four to six weeks without throwing. Given the length of that shutdown, Morris wasn’t likely to be ready early in the 2022 season anyhow.

March 24: It’s a one-year, $3MM deal that contains an option for the 2023 season, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

March 23: The Guardians have reached a deal to bring veteran right-hander Bryan Shaw back to Cleveland, Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). Shaw made a league-leading 81 appearances in 2021 for Cleveland — his second stint with the organization. Shaw is repped by CAA Baseball.

A staple in the Cleveland bullpen from 2013-17, Shaw thrice led the league in appearances during that stretch and pitched to an overall 3.11 ERA through 358 2/3 innings of relief work. He reached free agency as one of the most durable and effective names on the market in the 2017-18 offseason, but a three-year deal with the Rockies quickly went south. Shaw was clobbered for a 5.61 ERA in 126 2/3 frames with the Rox, who released him in July 2020. He latched on with the Mariners for the 2020 campaign but was rocked for a dozen runs in six frames with Seattle.

A return to Cleveland on a minor league deal this past year didn’t come with high expectations following that ugly three-year stint, but Shaw generally righted the ship. In 77 1/3 inning of bullpen work, he notched a solid 3.49 ERA, picking up 20 holds and a pair of saves along the way. Shaw’s success wasn’t without its red flags, as his 21.3% strikeout rate was down about four percentage points from its peak and his 11.4% walk rate was the highest full-season mark of his 11-year big league career. Still, Shaw limited hard contact, suppressed homers and picked up swinging strikes at his best rates since the 2017 season.

Assuming he’s on the big league roster, the 34-year-old Shaw will become the elder statesman of Guardians bullpen that is packed with power arms but light on experience. Emmanuel Clase, James Karinchak and Anthony Gose can all pump 100mph fastballs with regularity, but Gose is the only member of the relief corps with even two years of MLB service time — and most of that came earlier in his career as an outfielder, before he made the switch to the mound.

Bullpen Notes: Rodriguez, Peralta, Strickland, Shaw, Marlins

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Right-hander Richard Rodriguez was one of the more prominent names cut loose before last night’s non-tender deadline, and now that the Braves have parted ways with the reliever, Jason Mackey of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports (Twitter link) that the Pirates are interested in bringing Rodriguez back to the Steel City.  Rodriguez posted strong numbers throughout his three-plus seasons in the Pirates’ bullpen, which made him a hot commodity heading into the July trade deadline.  While Rodriguez’s peripherals didn’t back up his excellent on-field performance to begin this season, the Bucs were still able to move him to Atlanta for two young arms on July 30.

The righty still managed a 3.12 ERA during his 26 innings for the Braves, but Rodriguez’s home run rate skyrocketed and his strikeout rate dropped off the map to only 8.5%.  Atlanta didn’t use Rodriguez during the playoffs, and non-tendered him rather than pay a projected $3.1MM arbitration salary.  On paper, it would seem like a reunion between Rodriguez and the Pirates would work out well for both sides, as the Bucs would gain some more relief depth, and Rodriguez would try to get himself on track in a familiar environment.

More from the relief pitching market…

  • The Diamondbacks just made a splash in the relief market by signing Mark Melancon, but the club has also “at least checked on” such arms as Wily Peralta, Bryan Shaw, and Hunter Strickland, according to The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan (Twitter link).  All three right-handers had pretty decent bottom-line numbers in 2021, though the advanced metrics weren’t as impressed by their work.  Nonetheless, any could provide some help to an Arizona bullpen that badly struggled last season, and Peralta could factor into the rotation mix after starting 18 of his 19 games with the Tigers.  Shaw began his career with the D’Backs as a second-round pick for the team back in 2008, and he pitched his first two MLB seasons in a Diamondbacks uniform.
  • While the Marlins have been busy with some notable lineup additions, the club hasn’t yet done much to their relief corps.  GM Kim Ng told reporters (including The Miami Herald’s Craig Mish) that the bullpen market has been a bit slower in general, but now that the Marlins have finished some of the heavy lifting with their hitting upgrades, the pen will get more focus.  Miami’s pen posted some pretty solid numbers in 2021, and the front office has already made one move by acquiring right-hander Louis Head in a trade with the Rays.
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