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The Opener: Rodriguez, Mets, MLBTR Podcast

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As the grind of the regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Could Rodriguez debut today?

Orioles top prospect Grayson Rodriguez is on the verge of being promoted, and could make his MLB debut as soon as today in Texas. That’s not a guarantee, however, as the club will need to make room for Rodriguez on the active roster, which they have not done to this point. It’s possible Kyle Bradish will require a stint on the injured list, opening up a spot for Rodriguez, but if he doesn’t the club could also go with Austin Voth to start today’s game against the Rangers. Because Rodriguez was optioned a week ago, he can only be recalled if someone goes on the injured list. Otherwise, there’s a 15-day minimum gap required between the option and call-up.

2. Mets to have imaging done on Baty, Verlander

As noted by Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, Mets top prospect Brett Baty left yesterday’s game in Triple-A with soreness in the same thumb that required surgery at the end of last season. Baty is scheduled to get imaging done on the thumb today, so it’s possible we’ll hear how much impact, if any, the apparent injury will have on Baty going forward at some point today. Baty isn’t the only key piece in the Mets organization undergoing imaging today, however, as Mets manager Buck Showalter told reporters (including Tim Healey of Newsday) that Justin Verlander is scheduled for an MRI today. Verlander has been on the injured list since the start of the season with what has been described as a “extremely minor” teres major strain.

3. MLBTR Podcast Returns

After a seven-year hiatus, the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is returning! New host Simon Hampton talks with MLBTR’s Anthony Franco in the first episode, which will be available later today. Simon and Anthony will discuss a variety of hot-button topics around the baseball world, including looking ahead to the trade deadline this summer, while also answering listener questions. Keep an eye out throughout the day for more information.

Big Hype Prospects: Grissom, Liberatore, Soderstrom, Naylor, Silseth

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It feels good to breathe again – by which I mean identify players to write about based upon who is tearing up minor league ball. While there hasn’t been much action yet, we have many big-name prospects appearing in Triple-A boxscores. Catchers feature prominently this week.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Vaughn Grissom, 22, 2B/SS, ATL (AAA)
16 PA, 1 HR, 2 SB, .417/.563/1.083

One of the top performers of Opening Weekend, Grissom seeks to embarrass the Braves for choosing Orlando Arcia and Ehire Adrianza over him. This is his first exposure to Triple-A after spending most of 2022 in High-A and the Majors. The extra taste of upper-minors action could be designed to avoid a developmental setback related to facing Major League pitching. Grissom appeared overexposed late last season once scouting reports were refined. There are still questions about his shortstop defense – questions that should be answered during the course of 2023.

Matthew Liberatore, 23, SP, STL (AAA)
5 IP, 12.60 K/9, 3.60 BB/9, 0.00 ERA

Of the prospect pitchers in Triple-A, Liberatore posted the best 2023 debut. He allowed six baserunners in five innings of work with seven strikeouts. Liberatore is a complicated player to scout. His individual pitches rate well, especially a visually filthy curve ball. The issue is his curve doesn’t tunnel with any of his other offerings, making it identifiable out of the hand. Last season, Liberatore worked to a 5.17 ERA in Triple-A with a 5.97 ERA in 34.2 Major League innings.

Tyler Soderstrom, 21, C/1B, OAK (AAA)
10 PA, 1 HR, .556/.600/1.222

A first-round pick from the wonky 2020 draft, Soderstrom surged through the minors last season. His bat is his calling card. He’s particularly adept at producing high exit velocities at an ideal launch angle. Defensively, he leaves much to be desired. While he could conceivably stick at catcher with several more years of hard work, his bat is nearly Major League ready and should play at first base. For that reason, as well as the presence of Shea Langeliers, Soderstrom is widely expected to switch to the cold corner on a more permanent basis this season.

Bo Naylor, 23, C, CLE (AAA)
15 PA, 2 HR, .385/.467/.923

Naylor is coming off a huge rebound season in the minors with an aim toward building upon his reputation as a power-hitting backstop. He has above-average speed for a catcher and could potentially move off the position over the long haul. His defensive capability is viewed as below average at this time. For now, the Guardians have rostered a trio of catchers known mainly for their defense. Like Soderstrom, Naylor’s bat is his carrying trait. He is a discipline-forward slugger whose high rate of contact is offset by an unwillingness to swing at pitches he can’t barrel. The result is a high strikeout rate despite a low swinging strike rate.

Chase Silseth, 23, SP, LAA (AAA)
5 IP, 10.80 K/9, 1.80 BB/9, 0.00

Silseth popped up as a standout in Double-A early last season. The pitching-needy Angels brought him directly to the Majors where he posted a 6.59 ERA (4.24 xFIP) in 28.2 innings. Silseth has a five-pitch repertoire. I’ve received mixed notes on his command. While we know he doesn’t issue many free passes, that could be because his stuff plays in the zone against minor league hitters. His best offering is a splitter. Silseth himself blamed the splitter for his poor performance in the Majors, noting that he needed the pitch to be on to succeed. Splitter consistency is a difficult trait to develop, especially for a starting pitcher. Don’t be surprised if he’s inconsistent as he loses and regains feel for his top weapon.

Three More

Matt Mervis, CHC (25): Mervis is an odd prospect in that he continues to torch the ball, yet scouts doubt his ability to hold a regular role in the Majors. He has a 1.167 OPS through 15 plate appearances. We should see him tested against Major League pitching before the calendar flips to summer.

Brett Baty, NYM (24): Baty’s strong spring continued into Triple-A. He has two home runs, a stolen base, and a 1.257 OPS through 15 plate appearances. Mets fans on social media are eager to see Baty oust Eduardo Escobar who is currently 1-for-16 with seven strikeouts.

Connor Norby, BAL (22): The Orioles’ impending glut of middle infielders includes Norby. The second baseman consistently outperforms his modest scouting grades. Bear in mind, the Orioles’ minor league venues are far friendlier to right-handed batters than Camden Yards. Norby strikes me as an obvious trade candidate later this summer.

Mets Option Brett Baty, Mark Vientos

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The Mets have announced that they have optioned third baseman Brett Baty and first baseman Mark Vientos to Triple-A Syracuse. Both prospects were under consideration for the club’s Opening Day roster. Infielders Jose Peraza and Jonathan Arauz, catcher Michael Perez, outfielder DJ Stewart, righty Denyi Reyes, and lefty Zach Muckenhirn have also been reassigned to minor league camp.

Baty, 23, made his big league debut in 2022, though he struggled in his 11-game audition. Still, as a consensus top-25 prospect in the sport who had a torrid spring, posting an .885 OPS in 50 plate appearances during camp, Baty drew significant attention as a potential option for the Mets to open the season. Ultimately, with just 17 games of experience above the Double-A level and Eduardo Escobar currently entrenched at third base, the Mets decided Baty would be better served starting the season in the minors.

In the event that Baty comes up later in the season and plays his way into contention for the NL Rookie of the Year award, he could earn a full year of service time by finishing in the top two. If he places in the top three, the Mets will have missed an opportunity to acquire an extra pick in the 2024 draft by not placing Baty on the Opening Day roster. Vientos, meanwhile, has not met the prospect ranking requirement to earn the Mets an extra draft pick even if he had been added to the Opening Day roster, though a top two finish in Rookie of the Year voting could still earn him a full year of service time.

Vientos is in a similar position: also 23, the right-handed slugger struggled in his 16 game cup of coffee at the big league level last season, though with 112 games of experience at the Triple-A level over the past two seasons, and a clearly path to playing time as a DH alongside Daniel Vogelbach, Vientos seemed more likely to make the Opening Day roster than Baty. Nonetheless, he will join Baty at Triple-A to open the season, likely leaving the final spot on the Mets’s bench to either Darin Ruf or Danny Mendick.

While both youngsters seem all but certain to return to the big league roster at some point this season, the Mets have a deep position player corps that leaves the duo getting regular playing time at the Triple-A level until an injury (or under-performance by a big league regular) creates an opportunity in the majors.

Big Hype Prospects: Walker, Volpe, Baty, Grissom, Brown

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we’ll take a closer look at high-profile youngsters pushing for an Opening Day assignment.

Five BHPs In The News

Jordan Walker, 20, OF, STL (AA)
536 PA, 19 HR, 22 SB, .306/.388/.510

This column has nothing new to say about Walker. He is in the midst of a bid to skip Triple-A entirely and oust one of Tyler O’Neill or Dylan Carlson in the process. Playing time for Juan Yepez and Nolan Gorman could also be negatively affected by Walker’s imminent debut. Through 54 spring plate appearances, Walker is batting .340/.352/.604 against a mix of competition. If there’s a fly in the ointment, it’s his singular walk. Then again, Walker is in camp to impress with his bat, not to work free passes. Those can come later. Of his 18 hits, eight have gone for extra bases including three home runs.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AA) 497 PA, 18 HR, 44 SB, .251/.348/.472

Like Walker, Volpe is wearing out his welcome in BHP. The young shortstop is batting .297/.422/.568 with two home runs and four doubles in 44 plate appearances. The Yankees have a number of awkward roster decisions to make. Volpe’s success only adds to the pressure. Do they embrace the youth movement with Volpe, Oswald Peraza, and Oswaldo Cabrera or hand the keys to veterans like Aaron Hicks, Rafael Ortega, Willie Calhoun, and Josh Donaldson one more time? Of course, there’s a middle ground – pick the best option between Volpe and Peraza for shortstop, option the other, and juggle as many of the others as possible until Harrison Bader can return. The “safe” play lies in retaining as many assets as possible. A bolder course might be necessary in a tough AL East.

Brett Baty, 23, 3B, NYM (MLB)
(AA) 394 PA, 19 HR, 2 SB, .312/.406/.544

Continuing a theme, past episodes contain (and then repeat) all of the analysis and scouting notes I have on Baty. He’s batting .351/.478/.459 in 44 plate appearances. Of modest concern, he’s hit for extra bases just twice out of 13 hits. He also has a 27.27 percent strikeout rate. Baty doesn’t profile for the superstar ceilings enjoyed by Walker and Volpe. His ground ball-oriented swing limits his offensive potential. There’s only so much he can do to lift the ball without entirely reworking his mechanics. Despite this shortcoming and inconsistent defense, Baty profiles as a high-probability, above-average regular. His main competition, Eduardo Escobar, is batting .125/.222/.347 in 16 spring at bats. He also went 1-for-10 with a home run at the World Baseball Classic.

Vaughn Grissom, 22, SS, ATL (MLB)
(MLB) 156 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB, .291/.353/.440

The first draft of this writeup was penned before the Braves optioned Grissom or Shewmake. Grissom spent much of the 2022 season in High-A and skipped Triple-A entirely en route to a splashy debut as the Braves second baseman. He faded down the stretch and vanished in the postseason. The presumptive favorite for the shortstop job for much of the offseason, the Braves went out of their way to tout Braden Shewmake in the last week before pivoting to veteran options. Thing is, Grissom performed well this spring. In 37 plate appearances, he batted .371/.400/.429 with only four strikeouts. Reports on his defense have been positive, though he spent more time at second base recently. While he didn’t hit for much power, he looked as if he belonged in Atlanta. Presumably, he’ll continue to work on his defense in Triple-A.

Hunter Brown, 24, SP, HOU (MLB)
(AAA) 106 IP, 11.38 K/9, 3.82 BB/9, 2.55 ERA

Brown has been favored to win a job since the moment Lance McCullers Jr. suffered an elbow strain. Spring stats for pitchers tend to be extra difficult to evaluate since so much of their work happens on back fields and in side sessions. In four recorded games, Brown has 10 strikeouts in nine innings. He’s also allowed only five hits. That’s where the good news ends. Brown has also coughed up six runs (five earned) thanks to five walks and a hit batter. Command has long been the weakest aspect of his game. There’s still relief risk if he continues to miss spots. The overall vibe resembles Red Sox ‘tweener Tanner Houck – a repertoire of plus offerings, a ton of ground balls, a below-average changeup, and shaky command.

Three More

Braden Shewmake, ATL (25): Though he’s behind Grissom on the depth chart, Shewmake had an impressive spring. He hit .323/.371/.452 in 33 plate appearances. Shewmake spent the entirety of 2022 in Triple-A where he posted a modest .259/.316/.399 triple-slash. Scouting reports indicate this reflects his actual talent. He’s considered a future bench guy.

Oscar Colas, CWS (24): A free-swinger, Colas seems the obvious favorite to win the right field battle in Chicago. He’s the best defensive option among those with some offensive capability. While aggression is expected to hold him back, such hitters can sometimes ride an early hot streak until opposing scouts discover their weaknesses. He’s batting .283/.298/.500 with three home runs in 47 plate appearances.

Brice Turang, MIL (23): This is Turang’s fifth Spring Training and by far his best outcome. Through 36 plate appearances, he’s batting .313/.389/.438 with a home run and a double. He’s competing for a role at either second or third base with a collection of misfits – namely Mike Brosseau, Keston Hiura, Owen Miller, and Abraham Toro.

Big Hype Prospects: Walker, Baty, Volpe, Colas, Jameson

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The hype is real this week on Big Hype Prospects. Numerous notable youngsters are among the top performers in the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues.

Five BHPs In The News

Jordan Walker, 20, OF, STL (AA)
536 PA, 19 HR, 22 SB, .306/.388/.510

Walker is fourth among qualified spring hitters with a 1.429 OPS across 28 plate appearances. He’s already popped three doubles and three home runs. This column has covered Walker’s scouting traits many times. His hot play is putting him in the picture for an Opening Day role, though such an assignment is unlikely for numerous reasons. The sad truth is club control is an important consideration for teams when choosing a debut date. While new rules offer some consolation, the terms* are rather difficult to achieve. Additionally, the Cardinals have a deep roster. Nolan Arenado covers Walker’s natural position of third base. He’s converted to outfield where Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson, and Juan Yepez are also in the mix. In addition to competition and control incentives, Walker isn’t on the 40-man roster nor does he have any experience in Triple-A.

*Namely, two new rules. A player is awarded a full year of service if they finish top two in Rookie of the Year voting. A team can gain extra draft picks if a “top prospect” makes the Opening Day roster and later finishes top three in rookie voting or top five in MVP/Cy Young voting.

Brett Baty, 23, 3B, NYM (MLB)
(AA) 394 PA, 19 HR, 2 SB, .312/.406/.544

Another frequent guest of BHP, Baty is currently sixth-best among qualified hitters with a 1.208 OPS. He has one double and one home run. He spent most of 2022 in Double-A, though he had brief trials in Triple-A and the Majors. He didn’t look overmatched in his debut even though the end results weren’t impressive. An uncharacteristic .179 BABIP entirely explains his modest 71 wRC+. Baty is competing with Eduardo Escobar who could find himself in a utility role if Baty wins the third base job. There’s also room in the designated hitter competition where Daniel Vogelbach, Darin Ruf, and Tommy Pham are expected to see the bulk of the action. None of those veterans should be considered a lock to make the Mets roster.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AAA) 427 PA, 24 HR, .280/.358/.519

Yet another player who has been covered ad nauseum by this column, Volpe is on the cusp of his big league debut. His 1.097 OPS looks strong in the early going. In addition to a home run and two doubles, he also has three stolen bases. Volpe’s path to the starting shortstop role should be viewed as an uphill battle if only because the Yankees have given themselves a number of difficult decisions to make this spring. Volpe is plagued by the same criteria that could give the Cardinals pause regarding Walker. Additionally, Volpe has identifiable flaws as a hitter – most notably, a fly ball-oriented swing. He could find himself with a low BABIP in the Majors, especially since many pitchers have become adept at attacking this hitting profile.

Oscar Colas, 24, OF, CWS (AAA)
(AA) 225 PA, 14 HR, 1 SB, .306/.364/.563

Colas surged through the White Sox system last season, making stops in High-, Double-, and Triple-A. His time in Double-A was his most meaningful performance. He only accrued 33 plate appearances in Triple-A. Colas has a bead on Chicago’s right field job where first baseman Gavin Sheets is seen as the main competition. Colas is batting .429/.455/.476 in 22 spring plate appearances. He is known for making impactful contact. Like many products of the White Sox farm system over the years, he has a detrimentally aggressive plate approach. His first test in the Majors will be laying off competitive pitches outside of the zone. Many a prospect with comparable tools and discipline to Colas failed to stick in the Majors.

Drey Jameson, 25, SP, ARI (MLB)
(AAA) 114 IP, 8.61 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, 6.95 ERA

Jameson is competing with Ryne Nelson and others for the Diamondbacks fifth starter job. He mostly relies on two fastballs and a plus slider, though he also features a curve and changeup. In three spring outings, he’s tossed 6.2 innings with eight strikeouts, five hits, two walks, a home run, and three runs allowed. Although he’s proven a tad homer prone throughout his development, a high ground ball rate helps to salve the sting. He has the raw traits of a future workhorse. Within the next couple seasons, he could click in much the way Logan Webb clicked between his 2020 and 2021 campaigns. For those concerned about his Triple-A numbers, those are at least partly an artifact of circumstance. Reno’s starters combined for a 5.24 ERA which ranked fifth out of 10 clubs in the PCL.

Three More

Cole Ragans, TEX (25): Ragans averaged 92.1-mph with his heater last season so it raised a few eyebrows when he hit 99-mph the other day. With a number of Rangers starters banged up, there’s a decent chance Ragans will nab a start or two early in the season. I’m withholding enthusiasm until he maintains velocity in longer outings. At a minimum, the southpaw could really play up out of the bullpen.

Masyn Winn, STL (20): Though he has almost no chance of playing his way to an Opening Day assignment, Winn is making a favorable impression this spring. He has a 1.071 OPS in 17 plate appearances with a homer and two steals. Scouts want to see him adjust against competitive breaking balls but are otherwise enamored with the young shortstop. Defensively, he has an 80-grade arm but closer to 40-grade range and footwork. The arm ensures he’ll stick on the left side of the infield.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN (23): Acquired in the Tyler Mahle trade, Encarnacion-Strand has slugged at every stop along the ladder. He’s expected to reach Triple-A early this season if not right out of the gate. In 18 spring plate appearances, he has 11 hits including a double and three home runs. The profile reads like a more compactly built Franmil Reyes.

Mets Notes: Senga, DH, McNeil, Extensions

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One of the bigger moves of the Mets’ active offseason was the signing of starter Kodai Senga to a five-year, $75MM guarantee. The 30-year-old righty is making the jump from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, where he posted a 2.59 ERA across 11 seasons. Senga was one of the highest-upside hurlers available in free agency, though there’s naturally some amount of performance risk until he translates his production against MLB competition.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Mets also expressed some concern about Senga’s medical evaluations before finalizing the contract in December. Further details aren’t clear, though Heyman notes Mets personnel have expressed confidence in Senga’s health prognosis for the upcoming season. That’s hardly surprising, as whatever concerns the organization had raised didn’t deter them from agreeing to the fourth-largest deal for a free agent pitcher this offseason. That contract also affords Senga an opportunity to opt out and retest the market after the 2025 season, though the Associated Press reports that’s contingent on the righty throwing a combined 400 innings over the next three years.

In other news out of Queens:

  • The Mets never pursued a full-time designated hitter upgrade this offseason partially out of a desire to preserve a path to at-bats for their younger hitters, writes Andy Martino of SNY. Top prospects Francicso Álvarez and Brett Baty each reached the majors late in the 2022 season. Each is a polished hitter but faces questions about their defense at catcher and third base, respectively. That’s also true of corner infielder Mark Vientos, who’s not quite the same caliber of prospect as Álvarez or Baty but earned an MLB look with a .280/.358/.519 showing at Triple-A Syracuse. Martino suggests the Mets aren’t likely to give them early-season looks at DH in hopes of each continuing to show progress defensively, though there could be a path to bat-only reps later in the year — or for veteran Eduardo Escobar to slide to DH if Baty seized the third base job at some point. Lefty-swinging veteran Daniel Vogelbach earned the larger share of a DH platoon to open the year with an excellent .261/.382/.497 showing against righties anyhow. Offseason signee Tommy Pham or last summer’s deadline pickup Darin Ruf are righty bats who could shoulder the load against southpaws. Ruf’s second-half struggles give Pham the upper hand in that regard, but Martino writes the Mets are at least likely to carry Ruf on the roster into Spring Training.
  • New York locked up one of their homegrown stars last Friday, signing Jeff McNeil to a four-year, $50MM extension to potentially buy out a trio of free agent years. General manager Billy Eppler addressed the deal earlier this week, expressing broad openness to negotiations with other important players who are early in their careers (link via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). First baseman Pete Alonso is the most logical candidate for those kinds of talks as he enters his penultimate season of arbitration control, though neither Eppler nor Alonso’s representatives at Apex Baseball have indicated publicly whether discussions might take place over the coming weeks. Discussions with McNeil, at least, were a long time running before culminating in a deal. Will Sammon of the Athletic reports Eppler and McNeil’s camp at Paragon Sports International first opened extension talks in November 2021, just before the lockout froze communications between teams and 40-man roster players until March.

Marlins Explored Trades For Mets’ Brett Baty

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The Marlins spent much of the season looking for ways to convert their surplus of starting pitchers into some help at the plate, and that quest might have ended this week when the Fish dealt Pablo Lopez to the Twins as part of a four-player swap that sent Luis Arraez to Miami.  Before that move, however, Mets third base prospect Brett Baty was one of the other names on Miami’s radar, and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that the Marlins were willing to offer either Jesus Luzardo or Edward Cabrera in return.

Reports earlier this month indicated that the Marlins had also talked to the Mets about Eduardo Escobar, when New York seemingly had an agreement in place with Carlos Correa.  Had the Correa contract been finalized, an Escobar deal to the Marlins might’ve been been more viable, but the Mets naturally opted to hang onto Escobar once the club had some issues with Correa’s physical.  Heyman writes that the Marlins’ interest in Baty existed “both before and after the Mets’ Carlos Correa deal fell through,” and it is probably safe to assume that the Mets’ willingness to move Baty also diminished in the aftermath of the Correa situation.

While there seems to be no financial limit on the Mets’ desire to upgrade their roster, Steve Cohen’s splashy dives into free agency have been related to the club’s desire to hang onto its minor league depth.  While New York has moved some top young players in trades during Cohen’s two-plus years as owner, the Mets haven’t been willing to entirely clean out the farm system for proven veterans.  As such, players like Baty, Francisco Alvarez, Mark Vientos, Ronny Mauricio, and prospects further away from the majors have remained in New York’s organization.

Since Correa is no longer in the picture and the 34-year-old Escobar is entering his last year under contract, Baty may once again be the Amazins’ third baseman of the future, or even present if he starts to take on a larger role in 2023.  Baty made his MLB debut last season and could potentially be deployed in a platoon with Escobar this year, or might see some action in left field.  As Baty recently told MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo, he would’ve been happy to switch positions in the event of a Correa signing, saying “I just want to be in the big leagues helping a team win.”  Baty also said he feels “stronger than ever” in the wake of the thumb surgery that prematurely ended his 2022 season, and though he has been fully healed since November, Baty will be heading to Spring Training early to make up for lost prep time.

With Baty looking like a key figure in the Mets’ future plans, it would’ve taken quite a trade haul to get the team to change its mind about trading the third baseman….a haul akin to, say, a controllable and talented young pitcher like Luzardo or Cabrera.  Such a trade may no longer be on the table in the wake of the Arraez move, but it would’ve been a fascinating swap of young talents, especially with the added wrinkle of the Mets and Marlins being division rivals.  Either Luzardo or Cabrera would’ve added youth and long-term control to a veteran Mets rotation that currently has only one pitcher (Kodai Senga) locked up beyond the 2024 season.  Carlos Carrasco is entering the last year of his contract, while Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Jose Quintana are all only guaranteed through the 2024 campaign (though Verlander has a vesting option for 2025).

Had the Marlins successfully landed Baty, their roster moves of the last few weeks would’ve naturally been quite different, and the Arraez trade likely doesn’t happen.  In this scenario, Baty likely becomes the new everyday third baseman, while Jean Segura would’ve played second base rather than the hot corner.  This would’ve still opened the door for Jazz Chisholm Jr. to be moved to center field, as the Marlins are seeing if the All-Star second baseman’s speed and arm can translate to success as an outfielder.

Big Hype Prospects: Florial, Tiedemann, Amaya, Tovar, Vargas

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For this week’s post, let’s look at some prospects who might be affected by recent rumors….

Five BHPs In The News

Estevan Florial, 25, OF, NYY (MLB)
(AAA) 461 PA, 15 HR, 39 SB, .283/.368/.481

Although Florial has spent parts of three seasons in the Majors, he has just 63 plate appearances to his name. The left-handed hitter has yet to find success in New York, batting a combined .185/.302/.278. Now out of minor league options, Florial is poised to participate in a good old-fashioned Spring Training battle for oufield playing time. Barring a trade, the Yankees are running out of free-agent challengers for in-house options like Florial, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa for left field. They also added Willie Calhoun and Rafael Ortega as non-roster depth.

It’s easy to spot Florial’s biggest weakness; no matter the quality of competition, he consistently posts a high swinging strike rate. Florial is also a disciplined hitter, which means he takes his fair share of looking strikes. These traits contribute to an over 30 percent strikeout rate. Successful hitters of this type (i.e. Kyle Schwarber) have an excellent quality-of-contact profile, but since Florial hasn’t yet demonstrated an ability make such contact, his future as a Major League regular is dependent on skills growth. Should his strikeout rates and/or quality of contact improve, he has easy double-plus speed and enough raw power to become an entertaining regular. Even if Florial remains a role player, his speed dovetails nicely with the new baserunning-related rules. Even if playing time might be hard to come by in the crowded New York outfield, Florial could serve as a useful pinch-runner and defensive replacement.

Ricky Tiedemann, 20, SP, TOR (AA)
(A/A+/AA) 78.2 IP, 13.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 2.17 ERA

A 2021 third-round draftee, Tiedemann is on the shortlist with the likes of Andrew Painter and Eury Perez for best pitching prospect aged 20 and under. We’ve covered him a few times within the confines of this column. The Blue Jays appear headed toward a Spring Training battle for the fifth starter role, and Tiedemann is an attractive (albeit longshot) option for the job. The southpaw has three plus pitches, although reports suggest he could do with more time in the minors to better learn how to command his offerings. An Opening Day roster spot seems implausible, but we could see Tiedemann in Toronto by midseason. One caveat is his workload, as he averaged just over four innings per start last season and typically faced between 17 and 20 batters. Between low per-outing and total innings, Tiedemann might be more focused on stretching out than contributing in 2023.

Jacob Amaya, 24, SS, MIA (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 567 PA, 17 HR, 6 SB, .261/.369/.427

We covered Amaya a little over a month ago when speaking of the Dodgers middle infield depth. The skinny is straightforward – he’s a patient hitter with a history of modest exit velocities and too much ground ball contact. The profile is that of a second-division starter or utility man. Acquired by the Marlins as the return for Miguel Rojas, Amaya should find his way to the Majors at some point this season – possibly Opening Day. Unlike higher-profile prospects, the Marlins have little incentive to worry about Amaya’s club control. He could potentially form a platoon with Joey Wendle or join Jon Berti and Jordan Groshans as flexible bench depth.

Ezequiel Tovar, 21, SS, COL (MLB)
(AA) 295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545

Tovar has just 23 plate appearances in Triple-A and another 35 in the Majors. Even so, the Rockies seem intent to include Tovar on the Opening Day roster. Colorado explored at least one trade of infielder Brendan Rodgers, and the free agent options to fill a middle infield role are beginning to dwindle. Even with Rodgers in the fold, Tovar could still garner a starting job. The shortstop is expected to have some issues with swinging strikes early in his career, particularly with breaking balls outside of the zone. An aggressive approach might help him to avoid strikeouts.

Miguel Vargas, 23, UT, LAD (MLB)
(AAA) 520 PA, 17 HR, 16 SB, .304/.404/.511

Major League pitchers figured out how to work above Vargas’ barrel in a limited 50 plate appearance trial last season. Vargas has both discipline and a feel for contact. The Dodgers are adept at deploying their hitters in beneficial matchups. Look for Vargas to form a very loose platoon with the likes of Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, and James Outman across multiple positions. His reputation for barreling baseballs suggests he’ll adapt to high fastballs. If not, he can still be used against pitchers who lack that particular weapon or otherwise have poor command. He’s considered particularly adept at hitting breaking balls.

Three More

JJ Bleday, MIA (25): No longer rookie-eligible after making 238 plate appearances last season, Bleday nonetheless remains an unproven prospect with an uncertain future in Miami. Bleday did well to adapt his swing after a disappointing 2021 campaign, but he is an extreme flyball hitter who seems destined to require a friendlier home venue. The Marlins’ rumored interest in Max Kepler could affect Bleday’s opportunities in 2023.

Stone Garrett, WSH (27): A late-bloomer who signed with the Nationals early in the offseason, Garrett could be the next Patrick Wisdom. The sluggers aren’t perfect clones of one another, but they’re known for whiffing often and putting a charge into it when they connect. Garrett has an over-aggressive approach and questionable breaking ball recognition.

Brett Baty, NYM (23): Now that Carlos Correa has officially re-signed with the Twins, Baty should be back in the Mets long-term plans. The patient lefty hitter is expected to bat for a high average. Between power-suppressant CitiField and a grounder-oriented approach, Baty’s high exit velocities might not parlay into many home runs. His third base defense is considered below average, though I would hazard his baseline is higher than that of Alec Bohm. If Bohm can work his way up to acceptable defense, Baty should be able to do the same.

Yankees Have Discussed Outfield Trades With Twins, Diamondbacks

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The Yankees have had trade discussions with the Twins and Diamondbacks about their available outfielders, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post.

The Yankees already have two of their outfield positions accounted for, with Harrison Bader in center and Aaron Judge in right. There’s less certainty in left field, however, with Andrew Benintendi having departed via free agency. That leaves Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Cabrera as the remaining in-house options. Hicks is now 33 years old and has hit a combined .211/.322/.317 over the past two seasons. For a team in win-now mode like the Yankees, it’s understandable that they don’t want to rely on him as an everyday option. Cabrera just made his major league debut and only has 44 games under his belt. He fared well in that time but is a natural infielder who was learning outfield on the fly, meaning he’s probably best utilized as a utility option as opposed to an everyday player.

The desire for the Yanks to upgrade there is logical, as is their choice of trade partners. It was recently reported that the Twins had received some trade interest on Max Kepler, given that they have a large number of other outfield options on the roster. Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Kyle Garlick, Gilberto Celestino, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, Matt Wallner and Mark Contreras are all options to join Byron Buxton in the Minnesota outfield. Since all of those guys apart from Buxton and Kepler have less than three years of MLB service time, it’s likely that the Twins would have some reluctance to parting with them.

Kepler, on the other hand, has one year remaining on his extension, though with a club option for 2024. He’ll be making a salary of $8.5MM in 2023 with a $1MM buyout on the $10MM option. Kepler has hit right around league average for his career, as his .232/.317/.427 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 101. However, his defense has allowed him to be a consistently productive player. He’s produced at least 2.0 wins above replacement in each of the last six full seasons, according to FanGraphs, in addition to adding 1.1 fWAR in 2020.

As for the Diamondbacks, they are also flush with young outfielders that have reportedly been popular in trade talks. Corbin Carroll is considered one of the best young players in the game and is the least available of the group. But aside from him, the club has Daulton Varsho, Jake McCarthy, Alek Thomas, Pavin Smith, Dominic Fletcher and Kyle Lewis in their outfield picture. Aside from Lewis, those guys all hit left-handed, as does Kepler.

A left-handed hitter would be a good fit in the Yankee lineup for a couple of reasons. First of all, the lineup skews right-handed, with Anthony Rizzo the only lefty who is currently likely to get regular playing time. Secondly, the club’s “short porch” in right field traditionally boosts the value of lefty hitters. With the upcoming ban on infield shifts for 2023, a lefty in pinstripes could sell out for hard contact and not have to worry as much about watching liners and grounders get swallowed up by the defense.

As for their preferences for a target, Sherman suggests the Yankees would prefer Varsho to Thomas. That’s not a surprising choice to make, given Varsho’s strong breakout campaign in 2022. He hit 27 home runs and stole 16 bases, producing an overall batting line of .235/.302/.443 for a wRC+ of 106. Varsho was also excellent in the field, with his all-around game leading to a 4.6 fWAR tally on the year. Thomas, meanwhile, hit just .231/.275/.344 in his MLB debut, leading to a wRC+ of 71. He was also strong on defense and was only 22 years old, turning 23 in April. He could still blossom into a great major leaguer but it might still take some time.

Of course, the Yanks won’t be alone in calling these clubs about their attractive outfielders. The previous reporting on the D-Backs had already listed the Brewers, Blue Jays, A’s, Marlins, White Sox and Reds as interested, while Sherman notes that the Mets were on the phone as well. They reportedly were trying to acquire Thomas, but when Arizona asked for prospect Brett Baty, the Mets decided to hang onto him and just sign Nimmo instead. If the Mets found the asking price on Thomas to be too high, it’s fair to wonder if the Yanks would want to pay it or go even higher for Varsho.

If the Yankees don’t find a deal to their liking on the trade market, Benintendi is still a free agent. Though he’s not quite the superstar who seemed to on the way to becoming earlier in his career, he’s still a solid regular. He only hit five home runs in 2022 but was solid in the field and hit .304/.373/.399 for a 122 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR. MLBTR predicted he could land a contract of $54MM over four years, or $13.5MM per season. Sherman reports that Benintendi is looking for a five-year deal and it wouldn’t be a shock to see that come to fruition. Many players have landed much longer deals than expected this offseason, with each of Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Brandon Nimmo getting deals at least three years longer than projected. With Judge and Nimmo off the board, Benintendi is arguably the top remaining outfielder on the open market, which might lead to his market picking up soon.

It’s possible that the competitive balance tax might play a factor in a free agent pursuit, as Sherman opines that the Yankees might prefer to stay under the third CBT tier of $273MM. By crossing that line, the financial penalties would go up and the club would see its top 2023 draft pick pushed back by ten slots. Roster Resource currently pegs their CBT number at $266MM, meaning that adding Benintendi or any other notable player could lead to the club attempting to find ways to shed salary, such as trying to trade Hicks or Josh Donaldson.

Brett Baty To Undergo Thumb Surgery, Potentially Done For Season

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Mets infielder Brett Baty will undergo surgery tomorrow due to a torn UCL in his thumb, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Baty is potentially done for the year, as the expected recovery time is five weeks, per Will Sammon of The Athletic. Sammon adds that outfielder Terrance Gore will also be joining the team. The Mets announced that Baty has been placed on the 10-day IL retroactive to August 29.

It’s an unfortunate blow to the Mets and for Baty, personally. The 22-year-old prospect was promoted to the big leagues just under two weeks ago. He has struggled in his first 42 plate appearances, slashing just .184/.244/.342 so far. However, it’s fairly standard for young players to take some time finding their footing in their first taste of major league action. Based on his 315/.410/.533 batting line in the minors this year, it would have been reasonable to expect him finding better results as he got more exposure to big league pitching.

However, that progression will now have to wait, as Baty will apparently be out of action for the next five weeks. Since there are five weeks remaining on the regular season schedule, it will be very difficult for him to return to action and contribute down the stretch. A lengthy postseason run would surely help his chances of coming back, but even in that scenario, the club would have to view him as a better option than the more established players available for those opportunities.

For the Mets, this will leave them shorthanded on the infield, as least temporarily. Luis Guillorme is on the injured list due to a groin injury, leaving them with Pete Alonso at first, Jeff McNeil at second, Eduardo Escobar at third and Francisco Lindor at shortstop. For the moment, the club doesn’t really have a player on their bench who can reasonably play the non-first-base infield positions. Earlier this year, outfielder Mark Canha played third base for the Mets in an emergency situation, something he hadn’t done since he 2016 with the A’s. It’s possible he may be in that position again, though perhaps not for long. Rosters expand from 26 to 28 tomorrow, which should allow the Mets to bring in reinforcements. Also, Guillorme doesn’t seem to be too far away from coming back. Tim Healey of Newsday relays word from manager Buck Showalter that Guillorme will begin a rehab assignment this weekend.

As for Gore, 31, he’s never been much of a hitter but has always found work due to his speed and defense. In 102 MLB games, he’s hit just .224/.325/.284 but has 40 stolen bases in that time. The Mets signed him to a minor league deal in June, with Gore hitting .241/.313/241 in Triple-A since then. The Mets should have plenty of options for the outfield grass, with Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, Tyler Naquin present alongside Canha, though Gore could jump up the depth chart if Canha is needed on the dirt. Otherwise, he should be available off the bench for pinch running and defensive replacement assignments.

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