Brett Anderson

Dodgers lefty Brett Anderson is set to undergo surgery today on a bulging disk in his back, MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick reports (Twitter links). Anderson is expected to miss three to five months.

The news comes as a major blow to a Dodgers organization that has rolled the dice on several starters with injury questions. Anderson accepted the team’s $15.8MM qualifying offer at the outset of the offseason, returning on a one-year deal after his first healthy season in recent memory.

This won’t be Anderson’s first procedure for a bulging disk, as he underwent a similar surgery late in 2014. He’s missed time with other maladies before and since, of course, but his back health will now be an even greater question than it had been previously.

While there’s still hope that Anderson will contribute to the staff this year, that doesn’t mean the loss won’t tell. Fellow lefty Hyun-jin Ryu is still working back from shoulder surgery and has experienced some soreness. Brandon McCarthy remains a ways off from returning from a Tommy John procedure. Even the team’s newest MLB additions — Kenta Maeda and Scott Kazmir — are pitchers who have long-term health questions. Likewise, righty Frankie Montas, who profiled as a young rotation possibility as the season progresses, will miss time with rib surgery. (All that after the team blew up a prospective deal with Hisashi Iwakuma over the results of his physical.)

All that being said, it isn’t as if the club is hurting for options. Alex Wood now looks like a good bet to open in the rotation, where he’s had plenty of past success (despite coming with his own questions given his unusual delivery). Mike Bolsinger and Carlos Frias had their moments last year. The oft-injured Brandon Beachy is back on a minor league deal. Just-signed Cuban free agent Yaisel Sierra could potentially factor in, as could a variety of rising prospects including Jharel Cotton, Chris Anderson, Zach Lee, and top prospects Jose De Leon and Julio Urias.

Anderson, who only just turned 28, turned in 180 1/3 innings of 3.69 ERA ball last year, more than justifying the risk taken by Los Angeles. Indeed, he was even better than his results by measure of xFIP (3.51) and SIERA (3.46). But he hadn’t even logged 100 frames in a single season for the four preceding years, leading to questions about how his market would develop and aiding his decision to accept the QO.

The talented southpaw will, hopefully, have an opportunity to re-establish his health at some point later in the 2016 season. He could well provide a significant boost at that point, as might McCarthy, and it’s entirely possible that the Dodgers will have plenty of options down the stretch. As things stand, though, he’ll have to battle through another tough medical setback. Needless to say, both his future earning outlook and the possibility of the team benefiting from making a second consecutive QO have taken a hit.

Lefty Brett Anderson has decided to accept the qualifying offer issued to him by the Dodgers, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports on Twitter. He becomes the third player to accept a qualifying offer this year, joining Colby Rasmus (Astros) and Matt Wieters (Orioles).

Anderson is just 27 years of age and is coming off of a year in which he put up 180 1/3 innings of 3.69 ERA ball. That makes his decision somewhat surprising, at first glance, particularly given his pedigree. And metrics like xFIP (3.51) and SIERA (3.46) felt that Anderson was a bit unlucky, with his 17.0% HR/FB rate probably stands to drop back toward his career levels (11.2%). All told, there was good reason to think he’d draw wide interest as a free agent.

Of course, it’s obviously highly relevant that the talented southpaw failed to reach the 100-inning threshold in any of the four preceding seasons. His results have generally been quite strong, and his 3.72 career ERA is actually a fair bit higher than ERA estimators value his performance, but Anderson has dealt with a wide variety of injuries. He’s battled through Tommy John surgery, a fractured foot, a broken finger, and back issues over his careers.

In short, then, Anderson presented possible suitors with ample risk and plenty of upside. And he faced the same kind of calculus in assessing his decision on the qualifying offer.

It’s worth noting that Anderson was able to earn a $10MM base salary and $2.4MM in incentives in his contract last year, coming off of yet another injury-shortened campaign. It certainly would have been plausible to imagine him signing a nice one-year contract if nothing better was offered, possibly with a club that had already given up an early pick or two to sign other QO-bound free agents.

But there were other considerations at play, too, for Anderson and his reps at the Legacy Agency. In addition to ensuring that he’ll add a hefty, $15.8MM salary to his bank account, the move allows Anderson another opportunity to prove his health and effectiveness. He’ll still be plenty young next year, when the market features nothing close to this season’s mass of top-end talent and overall depth. With a big 2016, then, Anderson could be in prime position to cash in.

Los Angeles will be glad if Anderson does position himself for a big payday, as they would stand to reap the benefits. The team is uniquely situated to take on this kind of salary in a one-year arrangement, and is probably not displeased at the chance to fill a rotation spot with a good arm without binding up future commitments. The team is certainly not done shopping, though, as the rotation still needs to be filled out — including, perhaps, adding another high-level arm alongside ace Clayton Kershaw.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.