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Braxton Garrett

NL Notes: Pham, Contreras, Cabrera, Garrett, Uhlman

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Multiple reports over the offseason indicated that the Padres had interest in signing Tommy Pham, with the most recent of these items coming in mid-March, when USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote that San Diego had interest in Pham on a one-year deal worth around $3MM or $4MM.  Opening Day has now come and gone with Pham still a free agent, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the Padres still have interest, though they are wary that signing Pham wouldn’t leave much flexibility for future in-season moves while still remaining under the luxury tax threshold.

RosterResource projects a current tax number of around $223.6MM for San Diego, while Cot’s Baseball Contracts has a notably higher projection of $231MM.  It is important to note that these sites and others are only making estimates, while teams have their own internal mechanisms for calculating a luxury tax figure (and the league its own set of calculations to determine the final number at the end of the season).  The Padres seem intent on resetting their tax payor status and staying under the $237MM threshold, so if they have reservations about signing Pham for $3-4MM, that perhaps might indicate their internal number is closer to Cot’s figure than RR’s figure.  That said, it could also be a negotiating tactic on the Padres’ part to seek out a larger bargain on Pham, as the outfielder is undoubtedly eager to get onto the field.

More from around the National League…

  • X-rays were negative on Willson Contreras’ left hand, Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol told Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat and other reporters.  Contreras was hit by a pitch on Wednesday and didn’t play in today’s 8-5 win over the Marlins, but the hope is that he can play in the Cards’ next game on Saturday, either as a DH or as a catcher.  Contreras already has two homers and a .979 OPS over his first 25 plate appearances of the young season, as he enters the second year of his five-year, $87.5MM pact with St. Louis.
  • Eury Perez’s Tommy John surgery has dealt another blow to the Marlins’ injury-riddled rotation, but some help might be on the way.  Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett are each scheduled to make two Triple-A rehab starts before being activated from the 15-day injured list, as per the Marlins’ updates to MLB.com and other media today.  Cabrera already made one 43-pitch rehab start on March 31, and his next outing is planned for Friday.  Garrett’s slated outing on April 7 will be the first of two starts, and his most recent work took place in an extended Spring Training game back on Tuesday.  Both starters are recovering from impingements in their throwing shoulders.
  • Returning to the Padres, manager Mike Shildt told reporters yesterday that longtime assistant GM Fred Uhlman Jr. was resigning his position.  President of baseball operations A.J. Preller discussed Uhlman’s decision with Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune, saying that Uhlman’s duties had been re-assigned to others over the last few months, and that Uhlman had stayed in his job during “this transitional period.”  Uhlman has been with San Diego since 1995 and an assistant GM since 1996, acting as a constant within the front office even as the Padres have hired and fired multiple general managers during his long tenure.  Josh Stein is the only other person in the front office with an assistant GM title, though Preller said the Padres don’t plan to replace Uhlman in the near future.

Injury Notes: Lodolo, Cabrera, Garrett, Perez, Means, Bradish

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Nick Lodolo looked sharp today in the first of two planned Triple-A rehab starts.  The Reds southpaw allowed one run in five innings and 77 pitches of work, while striking out eight and allowing two hits and three walks.  After missing most of the 2023 season due to a stress reaction in his left tibia, Lodolo was still feeling some leg soreness this spring, so the Reds started him on the 15-day injured list in order to better ease Lodolo’s path back to action.  Assuming he is feeling healthy after today’s outing and his next rehab start, Lodolo is slated to make his season debut for the Reds on April 10.

More on other pitchers working towards getting healthy….

  • Edward Cabrera also began the season on the 15-day IL, as the Marlins righty was sidelined with an impingement in his throwing shoulder.  As noted by MLB.com, Cabrera threw 39 pitches in a intrasquad scrimmage game earlier this week and a 20-pitch bullpen session on Friday, so the next step is a minor league rehab assignment that begins with a Triple-A start today.  It isn’t yet known how many rehab outings Cabrera might need before he is activated, though of the Marlins’ multiple injured starters, he appears closest to a return.  Braxton Garrett is slated to throw a bullpen session today as he works his way back from his own shoulder impingement, and Garrett intends to be back in action before the end of April.  El Extra Base’s Daniel Alvarez-Montes (X link) notes that Eury Perez threw 20 pitches in a bullpen session today, with Perez on the road to recovery after being waylaid by elbow soreness in Spring Training.
  • While rehab starts are about getting comfortable and working out pitches rather than pure results, John Means had a shaky showing in first rehab start today with Triple-A Norfolk.  The Baltimore Sun’s Matt Weyrich was among those to relay the news that Means gave up seven runs on six hits and a walk over the 32-pitch outing.  Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko and other reporters yesterday that Means’ is “going to be close to 30 days” in Norfolk, as in the maximum length for rehab assignments.  Means missed almost all of the 2022 and 2023 seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery, and the O’s didn’t include him on their playoff roster due to what was reported as elbow soreness at the time.  As Kubatko notes, the Orioles are now referring to the injury as a left forearm strain, which only adds to the extreme caution Means and the O’s are taking in slowly ramping up the southpaw’s workload.
  • A sprain in Kyle Bradish’s right UCL created concerns that Bradish might also miss an extended amount of time, but the Orioles right-hander seems to be making good progress as he is also taking a careful approach to his rehab.  As relayed to Kubatko and other media, Bradish threw all of his pitches over a 35-pitch bullpen session yesterday.  While he “feels really good” in the aftermath of this bullpen, Bradish and Hyde didn’t commit to any kind of timeline about when Bradish will start building towards a return to the active roster.

Braxton Garrett Unlikely To Be Ready For Opening Day

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Marlins lefty Braxton Garrett is behind schedule after dealing with some shoulder soreness early in camp and isn’t likely to be ready for Opening Day, manager Skip Schumaker announced this morning (X link via Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald). Garrett threw a bullpen session today but the delayed start to his throwing progression likely won’t leave him with sufficient time to be built up for the start of the season. “He feels great now, but I think it’s dangerous when you’re trying to push a guy to make an Opening Day roster.” Schumaker said.

Garrett, now 26, has emerged as a key piece of the Miami rotation over the past couple of seasons, something recently explored by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco. The lefty posted a 3.58 earned run average over 17 starts in 2022, but still found himself sixth on the depth chart going into 2023. Injuries opened a path for him last year and he made the most of that chance, eventually logging 159 2/3 innings over 31 outings with a 3.66 ERA, 23.7% strikeout rate, 4.4% walk rate and 49.1% ground ball rate.

It sounds as though the concern from the club is minimal and Garrett may just miss the first couple of weeks of the schedule. If that proves to be the case, it likely won’t have a huge impact on the club’s plans but there may also be some ripple effects.

The club’s starting depth has made the Marlins a near-constant subject of trade rumors, though there are reasons why that might now be less likely. They traded Pablo López last offseason and Sandy Alcántara required Tommy John surgery late in 2023, putting him out of commission for the entire 2024 campaign. That left the club with a rotation mix consisting of Garrett, Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez, Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers coming into this winter.

The rumors around that group continued but the club didn’t line up a deal that they liked enough to pull the trigger on. Various teams around the league are currently discovering pitcher injuries, which perhaps could have lit up the phone in the Miami front office, but they have at least some concern of their own that could perhaps tamp down their appetite for a deal.

With Garrett likely to miss some time, it perhaps opens a rotation spot for A.J. Puk. He’s been an effective reliever over the past couple of years, including posting a 3.97 ERA with a 32.2% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate and 44.2% ground ball rate as a Marlin last year. He’s attempting to return to a rotation role this spring, as he served as an intriguing starting pitching prospect while climbing the minor league ladder.

Spring stats are always to be taken with a grain of salt but Puk has yet to allow a run over his first two outings, tossing five innings with nine strikeouts, three walks and just one hit. He will likely face some kind of workload limit at some point since he has been working as a reliever for a while. He tossed 125 innings the minors in 2017 but then missed all of 2018 due to Tommy John surgery and hasn’t hit 70 frames in any season since.

The Marlins also have Max Meyer on hand, though he will also be looking at limitations since he sat out all of 2023 rehabbing from his own Tommy John procedure. Roddery Muñoz and Darren McCaughan are also on the 40-man roster as depth options. If Garrett eventually gets built up and everyone else is healthy, Puk and Rogers have options and could theoretically be sent down for a while to monitor their workloads, as Rogers only tossed 18 innings last year due to biceps and lat injuries.

There are lots of talented options on hand but there’s also a fair amount of questions. The free agent market still features notable pitchers even though the calendar now reads March, so the Fish could reach out if they feel they need to bolster the group. It wouldn’t be realistic to expect a signing of Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery but someone like Michael Lorenzen or Jake Odorizzi is more plausible.

RosterResource pegs the club’s payroll at $102MM right now. That would be the highest of the Bruce Sherman era, as he purchased the club in late 2017 and Cot’s Baseball Contracts lists their payroll below nine figures in each season since then.

Perhaps the club has little appetite to add to that figure, as they seemingly made little attempt to retain slugger Jorge Soler. It had been previously reported that the club had some contact with him while he was a free agent but he recently signed with the Giants and contradicted those reports. “We never had communication during the season or after the season, so, I knew I was not coming back,” Soler said, per Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase.

NL East Notes: Braves, Lile, McNeil, Garrett, Rogers

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Because Atlanta Braves Holdings Inc., is a publicly-traded company, their obligatory financial reports provide an annual peek into the Braves’ business dealings, and Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution shared the details of the company’s disclosure earlier this week.  ABH Inc. reported $641MM in revenue in 2023 from the Braves and the associated ballpark village next to Truist Park known as The Battery Atlanta — this figure represents a sizable jump from the $589MM in revenues from 20222.  Between Truist Park’s opening in 2017 and the success of the Battery as an attraction outside of just Braves gamedays, the Braves have seen revenues soar from $262MM in 2016 to last year’s $641MM number, with only a dip in 2020 due to the pandemic.

However, ABH Inc. still reported an overall operating loss of $46MM for 2023.  As per the team statement, baseball-related operating costs “increased primarily due to higher player salaries, including offseason trade activity in the fourth quarter, as well as increases under MLB’s revenue sharing plan.”  The operating profit for 2023 stood at $38MM, but dropped into the red due to $13MM drops for stock-based compensation and $71MM in depreciation and amortization.  (Tucker notes that “large deductions for depreciation and amortization are believed to be common for MLB teams.”)

The revenue increase has gone hand-in-hand with a big increase in the Braves’ payroll, as Atlanta is set to far exceed its club-record $205MM payroll from 2023.  The Braves are currently projected (as per RosterResource) for a payroll close to $228MM and a luxury tax number of $270MM.  After paying into the tax for the first time last season, the Braves have now gone well beyond the initial CBT threshold, as their projected $270.3MM tax number is now approaching the third penalization tier of $277MM.  The front office’s aggressive strategy of locking up star players to extensions has both increased spending but also built a powerhouse team that is expected to again contend for a World Series title.

Some more items from around the NL East…

  • Nationals outfield prospect Daylen Lile was stretchered off the field in a scary incident in today’s Spring Training game.  While attempting to catch a home run, Lile went over the right field fence and took a bad landing, drawing immediate calls for medical attention from Red Sox pitchers in the bullpen.  Lile reportedly gave a thumbs up while being removed from the field, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post.  A second-round pick in the 2021 draft, the 21-year-old Lile missed all of the 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, and is ranked by Baseball America as the 11th-best prospect in Washington’s farm system. [UPDATE: Manager Davey Martinez told Janes and other reporters that Lile will undergo a CAT scan.  Lile apparently landed hard on his lower back after his fall, but was able to move his feet.]
  • Jeff McNeil is dealing with some left biceps soreness and won’t hit for a few days, Mets manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters (including Mark W. Sanchez of the New York Post).  McNeil is still able to participate in fielding drills since he throws with his right arm, though his left arm continues to be a concern given how McNeil has a partially torn left UCL.  The thought was that McNeil would be fine after an offseason of recovery rather than surgery, and a biceps issue doesn’t necessarily hint at any further UCL damage.  The former NL batting champion and two-time All-Star is looking to bounce back from an underwhelming .270/.333/.378 slash line over 648 plate appearances in 2023.
  • Marlins manager Skip Schumaker provided media (including the Miami Herald’s Jordan McPherson and MLB.com) with some updates on starters Braxton Garrett and Trevor Rogers.  Garrett has been dealing with soreness in his left shoulder for a couple of weeks but has been throwing bullpen sessions and is on “normal progression now” towards throwing a live batting practice, Schumaker said.  Rogers is tentatively scheduled to make his Grapefruit League debut in a 20-pitch outing on Tuesday, as the Marlins have been building him slowly in camp in the aftermath of an injury-riddled 2023 season.  Rogers threw a live batting practice session on Thursday that left Schumaker impressed, as the southpaw “was throwing 93-94 mph in a setting with not much adrenaline.”

NL East Notes: Garrett, Wheeler, Robles, Matzek

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The Marlins kicked off Spring Training with a potential injury scare in the rotation, as Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald relays that, per manager Skip Schumaker, southpaw Braxton Garrett is dealing with “general soreness” in his left shoulder. While shoulder injuries are among the more concerning ailments for pitchers, Schumaker made clear that Garrett hasn’t been shut down at this point with the club instead planning to “push back” the start to Garrett’s spring “until he feels better.” McPherson adds that Garrett continued to play catch late last week.

Garrett, 26, has quietly broken out as a quality mid-rotation arm for the Marlins over the past two seasons. In 48 appearances (47 starts) since the start of the 2022 season, Garrett has posted an impressive 3.63 ERA with a nearly-matching 3.64 FIP across 247 2/3 innings of work. During that time, the lefty has struck out a respectable 23.8% of batters faced while walking just 5.1%. The youngster’s strong peripheral numbers are rounded out by his ability to generate grounders, which he has done at an above-average 48.7% clip over the past two years. With Sandy Alcantara set to miss the entire 2024 campaign while rehabbing Tommy John surgery, Garrett figures to slot in toward the front of the Miami rotation this season alongside the likes of Jesus Luzardo and Eury Perez.

With Garrett’s health uncertain entering camp, it’s fair to wonder what impact his status may have on the club’s trade talks regarding members of their rotation. The Marlins have long been known to be listening on their controllable starting pitching in hopes of addressing other areas of their roster, with Luzardo receiving attention from the likes of the Orioles and Dodgers while the Pirates have also reportedly shown interesting in the club’s available rotation arms. While it’s unclear what impact, if any, Garrett’s current shoulder issue would have on his availability in trade, it’s possible the Marlins may be more hesitant to shop any of their starting options until they have more certainty on Garrett’s status. After all, a hypothetical trade of Luzardo would leave the Marlins with only Perez, Edward Cabrera, and Trevor Rogers as surefire starting options entering the 2024 season if Garrett were to require time on the injured list.

More from the NL East…

  • The Phillies have long been hoping to extend veteran ace Zack Wheeler, and comments from Wheeler himself last week indicated that the sides have opened extension talks with Spring Training now underway. While Wheeler indicated that he’s open to negotiating even once the season begins, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski indicated to reporters (including Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer) that while extending Wheeler is a “priority” for the club, his preference is for the sides to come together on a deal before the regular season begins. Wheeler has established himself as one of the league’s premiere starters since first suiting up for the Phillies during the shortened 2020 campaign. During his time in Philadelphia, the right-hander has pitched to an excellent 3.06 ERA with a 2.90 FIP in 101 starts during the regular season and has augmented that resume with an incredible 2.42 ERA in 63 1/3 postseason innings.
  • Victor Robles has patrolled center field for the Nationals on a regular basis ever since his rookie season back in 2019, though it’s possible that could change entering the 2024 season. As relayed by MASN’s Mark Zuckerman, manager Dave Martinez told reporters recently that there will be a “battle” between Robles and 24-year-old rookie Jacob Young for the starting center field job, though Martinez added that Robles has “a little bit of an upper hand” coming into camp. Robles has largely been a plus-glove center fielder with below average offense throughout his career, though in 2023 he appeared to flash more offensive upside as he slashed a solid .299/.385/.364. Unfortunately, that slash line came across just 126 trips to the plate as Robles spent most of the year on the injured list due to back injuries. Young, meanwhile, held his own in a 33-game cup of coffee in the majors last year with a decent .252/.322/.336 slash line in 122 trips to the plate.
  • Braves left-hander Tyler Matzek missed the entire 2023 season due to Tommy John surgery, but he told reporters (including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) that he’s feeling good entering Spring Training and hopes to be ready for Opening Day, though he didn’t rule out a possible IL stint to open the season if he needs time to finish preparing to retake the mound. The 33-year-old’s return to the mound figures to provide a significant boost to Atlanta’s relief corps, as Matzek pitched to strong results over three seasons with the Braves prior to the injury. In 132 combined appearances, the southpaw posted a 2.92 ERA with a 3.34 FIP in 135 2/3 innings of work as he struck out 27.4% of batters faced.

Latest On Marlins’ Rotation Trade Possibilities

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As the free agent starting pitching market thins, there’s been some chatter about the Marlins as a team that might subtract a pitcher in trade. That attention has generally been centered on left-hander Jesús Luzardo and young righty Edward Cabrera. Last week, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote that Cabrera had the better chance of that duo of changing hands, although it wasn’t clear how likely Miami was to move either player.

Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald added some context on the trade possibilities involving Miami’s starters this afternoon. Jackson writes that the Fish are willing to consider offers on each of Luzardo, Cabrera and left-hander Braxton Garrett, although he indicates there aren’t any proposals under “active consideration.”

A trade still seems a possibility but isn’t necessarily likely. The Fish haven’t done much under first-year president of baseball operations Peter Bendix. Miami is the only team that still hasn’t signed a free agent to a major league deal this offseason. Their biggest moves were trade pickups of catcher Christian Bethancourt, reliever Calvin Faucher and out-of-options infielder Vidal Bruján.

It’s an underwhelming offseason for a team coming off a surprising Wild Card berth. The Fish seem likely to lose a 36-homer hitter after Jorge Soler declined his player option. They’re looking to add at shortstop, but the free agent class at the position is dismal. They could use another bat in the corner outfield/designated hitter mix.

For all the lineup questions, their biggest loss in 2024 is one to injury. Sandy Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery during last year’s postseason. With the 2022 NL Cy Young winner missing the entire season, the Fish project for a season-opening starting five of Eury Pérez, Luzardo, Garrett, Cabrera and Trevor Rogers.

That’s still a promising group, but their once vaunted rotation depth has thinned. In addition to the Alcantara injury, the Fish dealt Pablo López and prospect Jake Eder last year. Depth options beyond their front five include Ryan Weathers and Bryan Hoeing. Miami should get a boost from former #3 overall pick Max Meyer, who is 18 months removed from his own Tommy John procedure. Jackson writes that the new front office still considers Meyer a viable starting pitcher; prospect evaluators were divided on whether he was better suited for a high-leverage relief role before the injury.

Meyer only made two MLB starts before the unfortunate ligament tear. Rogers was limited to four starts, all in April, last year by biceps and lat injuries. Pérez, widely regarded as the sport’s top pitching prospect before an impressive rookie season, logged 128 innings between Triple-A and the majors last season. Miami could still be cautious about expanding the 20-year-old’s workload too far beyond 150 frames.

Luzardo and Garrett are Miami’s only healthy starters who topped 100 MLB innings a season ago. They both had strong seasons. The former posted a 3.58 ERA while punching out more than 28% of opposing hitters in 32 starts. With three years of arbitration control and a fastball approaching 97 MPH on average, he likely has more trade value than anyone in the Miami rotation aside from Pérez (who certainly isn’t getting moved).

Garrett has a more extended control window, as he won’t get to free agency for another five seasons. The former #7 overall pick allowed 3.66 earned runs per nine in just under 160 frames. Garrett doesn’t have the huge velocity of most of his rotation mates, sitting around 91 MPH with his heater. Yet his strong secondary offerings and plus command have translated into mid-rotation results for the last two seasons.

Cabrera is a more volatile young arm. The 25-year-old righty worked to a 4.24 ERA across 99 2/3 MLB frames. He generated an impressive 27.2% strikeout rate and 54.3% ground-ball percentage with a fastball that sits above 96 MPH. His control remains a significant question, however. Cabrera walked more than 15% of opposing hitters last season and has handed out free passes at a 14% rate over parts of three years in the big leagues. As with Garrett, he’s under club control for five more seasons.

Braxton Garrett’s Rotation Emergence

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Braxton Garrett did not begin the 2023 season in the Marlins’ rotation. His first appearance was a three-inning relief outing on April 1. The Fish optioned him two days later but recalled him within a day as Johnny Cueto went on the injured list.

Cueto’s injury opened a spot for Garrett to assume the #5 starting job behind Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera. The left-hander was a quality depth option, a former #7 overall pick who had turned in a 3.58 ERA over 17 starts in 2022. That the Marlins nevertheless brought in Cueto and began with Garrett sixth on the depth chart suggests the front office had trepidation about his ability to repeat those results.

Once injury pushed Garrett back into the starting mix, he didn’t look back. The 26-year-old made 30 starts from that point forward, ultimately logging 159 2/3 innings. He finished third on the team in workload while allowing 3.66 earned runs per nine. That came with above-average peripherals across the board. Garrett punched out a solid 23.7% of batters faced while keeping the ball on the ground nearly half the time. He walked only 4.4% of opposing hitters, showcasing the plus control which evaluators had praised during his time as a prospect.

It’s not an overpowering profile. He averaged just 90.5 MPH with the sinker that serves as his primary offering. Despite the pedestrian velocity, Garrett has shown the ability to miss bats with his assortment of secondary pitches. He generated above-average whiff rates on each of his slider, cutter and changeup. The well-rounded arsenal allowed him to avoid significant platoon issues. Garrett’s strikeout and walk profile was better than average regardless of the opponent’s handedness. Right-handed hitters made more authoritative contact than southpaws, but neither side produced much overall.

Garrett’s development into a mid-rotation arm has taken on extra importance given other setbacks in the starting staff. Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery in October, knocking him out of the mix for 2024. Rogers injured his left biceps and right (non-throwing shoulder), limiting him to four starts. Cabrera, a former top pitching prospect, has shown promising stuff but continues to issue plenty of free passes. The Cueto signing didn’t work.

Miami’s rotation was productive overall. Luzardo also took a step forward, while 20-year-old Eury Pérez posted a 3.15 ERA over 19 starts as a rookie. That the Fish turned to Garrett in the second game of their Wild Card series with the Phillies still hints at both the strength of his ’23 campaign and some of the hits Miami took above him on the season-opening depth chart.

Garrett has just under two years of major league service. He’ll surely qualify for early arbitration next offseason as a Super Two player but remains under club control for five additional seasons. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote in late November the Fish were receiving trade interest in their young starters but were likely to consider Garrett off limits. There’s no question of his place in the rotation heading into 2024.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Marlins’ Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers Drawing Trade Interest

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It wouldn’t be an offseason or trade deadline without the annual tradition of rumors regarding the Marlins’ collection of young starting pitchers. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes this morning that Miami has received interest in right-hander Edward Cabrera and lefty Trevor Rogers this winter, though there’s no indication a deal involving either has been seriously discussed.

Miami’s wealth of starting pitching has been the focus of other clubs for several years now, although the extent of that depth is probably overstated now. The Fish traded Pablo Lopez as part of their Luis Arraez acquisition and will be without 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara in 2024 due to Tommy John surgery. Pitching prospect Jake Eder was traded at the deadline to acquire Jake Burger from the White Sox. Fellow prospects Max Meyer (2022 TJS), Dax Fulton (2023 elbow surgery) and Sixto Sanchez (shoulder surgeries in 2021, 2022) have all seen injuries slow their trajectories as well — particularly in the case of Sanchez.

Currently, the Marlins project to trot out a rotation including Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers and ballyhooed young right-hander Eury Perez. There’s no way the Marlins would move Perez, who entered 2023 as arguably the top pitching prospect in the sport and debuted as a 20-year-old with 19 starts of 3.15 ERA ball. Similarly, Rosenthal suggests that Luzardo and Garrett are likely considered off limits. Beyond that top quintet, the Marlins’ top in-house options are 27-year-old Bryan Hoeing and lefty Ryan Weathers, whom they acquired in a buy-low deal from the Padres over the summer.

The extent to which Cabrera or Rogers is available will depend on the strength of offers made by other clubs, as there’s no urgency for Miami to move either pitcher. Rogers, the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up, has three years of team control remaining. Cabrera has five. Rogers has had a pair of disappointing years since a brilliant rookie campaign, pitching to a 5.26 ERA in his past 125 frames (just 18 of which came in an injury-ruined 2023 season). Cabrera has been better but inconsistent while showing worrying command; he’s logged a 3.73 ERA and fanned 26.6% of his opponents in his past 171 1/3 innings but has also issued walks at a 13.7% clip in that time.

Between the greater amount of club control and the better recent track record (both in terms of health and performance), Cabrera has the greater trade value of the pair. He’ll likely be eligible for Super Two status next winter and thus be arbitration-eligible four times rather than three, but Rogers is already into his arb years and projected to earn a modest $1.5MM this coming season, via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

With their past trades and all of the injuries throughout the prospect ranks, the Marlins are no longer as deep as some may believe them to be. It’s still feasible that they could trade someone like Cabrera or Rogers in an effort to acquire help at another area of need like catcher, shortstop or center field (depending on the new front office’s plans for Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s defensive home). It’s a thin free-agent market for bats, after all, and the Marlins likely don’t have extensive financial flexibility anyhow.

That said, if new president of baseball operations Peter Bendix does deal from the rotation to address another need, it’d likely just create a hole on the starting staff that would need to be filled via free agency or a subsequent trade. The Marlins tried this last year when dealing Lopez and signing Johnny Cueto, but the results weren’t at all what the team had hoped, as Cueto posted a 6.02 ERA in 52 1/3 innings.

Marlins Looking To Add Starting Pitcher

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The Marlins pulled off one of the bigger moves of deadline season last night, acquiring back-end reliever David Robertson for a pair of promising low minors prospects. It’s the first of what is likely to be multiple additions for a Miami club that currently sits just outside the NL Wild Card picture.

Before the Robertson deal, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported that adding both a starter and a reliever were Miami’s top priorities. They moved quickly on the latter front but figure to explore the rotation market over the coming days.

It’s surprising to see the Fish looking for rotation help at first glance. For a few seasons, Miami has skewed rotation-heavy and been light on offense. As a result, the Marlins dealt Pablo López to Minnesota for Luis Arraez in an effort to balance the roster.

That said, the Marlins’ rotation has been more good than exceptional in 2023. They rank 11th in starting pitching ERA, allowing 4.11 earned runs per nine innings. They’re third in strikeout rate (25.4%), 11th in walks (7.5%) and third in grounder percentage (45.9%). Starting pitching certainly hasn’t been a weakness, but it hasn’t been quite as effective as last year’s group — which ranked eighth in ERA behind a Cy Young performance from Sandy Alcantara.

Some amount of regression was probably inevitable. The López trade subtracted arguably Miami’s second-best starter. The Marlins rearranged their infield, installing Arraez at second base to push Jazz Chisholm to the outfield. They signed Jean Segura to move to third and dealt away Miguel Rojas while moving Joey Wendle to shortstop. All those transactions were designed to add offense — and the Arraez trade in particular has achieved that — but come with the expected effect of reducing the defensive efficiency behind a ground-ball heavy pitching staff.

That’s among the reasons for Alcantara’s step back, although there are myriad factors whenever a pitcher’s ERA jumps more than two runs (from 2.28 to 4.46). They’re obviously not going to displace Alcantara from the rotation, but his relative down season magnifies some of the other challenges Miami has faced.

Trevor Rogers has been on the injured list since the middle of April; a partial tear in his non-throwing shoulder leaves him with an uncertain return timetable. Free agent pickup Johnny Cueto lost a couple months to injury and was knocked around on his minor league rehab stint. Miami broke him in as a reliever before moving him back into the rotation last weekend.

Top prospect Eury Pérez has had a brilliant start to his MLB career, but he’s back in the minors temporarily as the club keeps an eye on his workload. The 20-year-old has already set a personal high with 86 2/3 innings between Double-A and the majors this season. Bryan Hoeing has gotten six starts but allowed a 6.66 ERA in 24 1/3 frames over that stretch. He’s been much better in a multi-inning relief role.

There have also been signs of promise, of course. Jesús Luzardo has taken another step forward and looks like a #2 caliber starter. Braxton Garrett, who opened the season in the minors, has stepped up with a 4.32 ERA and above-average peripherals through 100 innings. Edward Cabrera is missing plenty of bats and racking up grounders, though he’s walking over 14% of opponents and has an ERA approaching 5.00.

Miami has plenty of high-upside arms who are capable of starting a playoff game if they play into October. They don’t need to shop at the top of the rotation market. There’s some sense in adding a stable back-end starter to ease the workload on some of Miami’s younger arms — in effect playing the role the Marlins envisioned from Cueto when they signed him in January.

While rotation help now seems to be the front office’s priority, Ng and her group will also certainly remain on the lookout for ways to add to the lineup. They’ve been loosely linked to Jeimer Candelario and Tim Anderson within the past week. Rosenthal writes that Miami made a run at first baseman Carlos Santana before the Pirates dealt him to Milwaukee. The Marlins should have a few irons in the fire over the next few days as a somewhat surprising entrant into the rotation market.

Marlins To Place Johnny Cueto, Joey Wendle On IL

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The Marlins have made a batch of roster moves, per their transactions tracker at MLB.com. Left-hander Braxton Garrett and infielder Garrett Hampson were recalled from the minors, while left-hander Daniel Castano had his contract selected. In corresponding moves, right-hander Johnny Cueto was placed on the 15-day injured list with right biceps tightness, infielder Joey Wendle was placed on the 10-day injured list with a right intercostal strain and right-hander Jeff Lindgren was designated for assignment. Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reported some of these moves earlier today (Twitter links).

Cueto, 37, signed a one-year, $8.5MM deal with the Marlins this offseason, with that deal containing a club option for 2024. The veteran had a strong bounceback in 2022 after struggling with injuries and underperformance in the preceding seasons. With the White Sox last year, he tossed 158 1/3 innings with a 3.35 ERA. He struck out just 15.7% of batters he faced but limited walks to a tiny 5.1% rate. He made his debut with the Marlins last night but departed after throwing just 30 pitches, having already allowed four runs while recording only three outs.

It’s unclear how long the club expects Cueto to be out of action but this IL placement indicates it will be at least a couple of weeks. In his absence, they should still have a strong front four of Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera. Garrett opened in the season in a long relief role but was optioned just yesterday. He’d normally have to wait 15 days before rejoining the team but an exception is made when someone is placed on the injured list. He will likely jump into the back of the rotation after posting a 3.58 ERA in 17 starts last year.

Lindgren, 26, was only just added to the roster yesterday. When Cueto departed with his injury, Lindgren stepped in and tossed five innings of emergency long relief, allowing four earned runs, four walks and three hits without recording a strikeout. The Fish will have one week to trade him or pass him through waivers. He tossed 136 2/3 innings in the minors last year with a 4.21 ERA, 20% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate.

Since Lindgren tossed 80 pitches last night, he likely wouldn’t have been available for a few days. In his stead, Castano will likely take over the long man gig. The left-hander has thrown 85 2/3 innings for the Marlins over the previous three seasons, posting a 3.89 ERA despite a 12% strikeout rate. He’s kept his walks down to a 7.5% clip and gotten grounders on 44.5% of balls in play. He was designated for assignment in January when Cueto’s signing became official but cleared waivers and stuck with the organization, now getting his roster spot back. He tossed six innings in a Triple-A start on Friday and should be able to eat some innings if needed.

Wendle, 33 later this month, was bumped up to the club’s top shortstop option with this offseason’s trade of Miguel Rojas to the Dodgers. Wendle sat out last night’s game due to oblique soreness, which has now been diagnosed as a strain. It’s not known how long he is expected to be out but even mild oblique/intercostal strains can lead to weeks-long absences.

With Wendle on the shelf, the Fish will likely turn to Jon Berti and Hampson to cover the shortstop position. The latter had spent his entire career with the Rockies until he was non-tendered at the end of last season. The Marlins signed him to a minor league deal and then selected him to the 40-man in mid-March to prevent him from triggering an opt-out. Hampson has never hit much, posting a career batting line of .235/.296/.370 despite playing half his games at Coors Field. But he does have 52 stolen bases in 419 career games and the ability to play all over the field. He’s played the three infield positions to the left of first base as well as some time in center and left.

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