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Reds Select Chasen Shreve, Promote Connor Phillips

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The Reds announced a series of roster moves this afternoon. The club placed right-hander Graham Ashcraft of the 15-day IL with a stress reaction in his big toe, placed left-hander Brandon Williamson on the COVID-19 IL, selected the contract of left-hander Chasen Shreve, and added right-hander Connor Phillips to the roster as a substitute player. Players on the COVID-19 IL don’t count against a club’s 40-man roster, so the Reds have plenty of temporary flexibility due to the number of players currently shelved with the virus. As a substitute player, Phillips is only temporarily on the roster and can be returned to the minors without being waived. As the club selected Shreve’s contract, he counts against the club’s 40-man roster in a more permanent fashion, though no corresponding move is needed at this time.

Phillips, 22, will make his major league debut the first time he gets into a game. MLB Pipeline ranks the young right-hander as the club’s fourth best prospect and the 70th best prospect in the sport. He opened the year with a dominant performance at Double-A, posting a 3.34 ERA in 64 2/3 innings of work with an incredible 39.1% strikeout rate. Since receiving a promotion to Triple-A, however, Phillips has begun to struggle. His 40 1/3 innings at the level have yielded a 4.69 ERA, while his strikeout rate has plummeted to 24.2% and his walk rate has ballooned to a massive 16.9%.

Given his age, prospect pedigree and dominance as recently as earlier this season, it’s certainly possible Phillips has a lengthy and successful big league career in his future. In the short-term, however, he’ll need to significantly cut down on the free passes if he hopes to help the 70-67 Reds fight their way into one of the NL Wild Card spots with key pitchers like Williamson and right-hander Hunter Greene out for an unknown amount of time due to the clubhouse’s COVID outbreak.

Shreve, 33, joined the Reds on a minor league deal last month. He had spent the 2023 season with the Tigers prior to that, pitching to a roughly league average 4.79 ERA and 4.06 FIP in 47 appearances with the club. The lefty veteran is in his tenth year as a major league pitcher, with a career 3.88 ERA. While he’s mostly looked the part of a middle reliever throughout his career, it’s worth noting he’s posted a 2.65 ERA with a 34.8% strikeout rate against same-handed hitters this season. With Sam Moll as the only other southpaw in the Cincinnati bullpen as things stand, Shreve seems likely to be able to carve out a specialized role in the Reds’ bullpen going forward.

Joining several of his teammates on the COVID IL is Williamson, who has looked the part of a solid mid-to-back of the rotation starter during his rookie campaign. Across 19 starts with the Reds this year, Williamson has posted a 4.20 ERA (109 ERA+) and a 4.51 FIP in 98 2/3 innings of work. The loss of a reliable rotation arm like Williamson further compounds the club’s pitching woes. In addition to Greene’s move to the COVID IL, the Reds recently lost any hope of left-hander Nick Lodolo returning this season.

Williamson isn’t the only starter hitting the shelf today, either, as Ashcraft moves to the 15-day IL following his start against the Cubs yesterday, in which he allowed three runs over five innings of work while striking out six. It’s been an up-and-down season for Ashcraft, who dominated to a 2.00 ERA in his first six starts this season before posting a brutal 12.82 ERA over his next eight starts. Since June 30, Ashcraft has posted a 2.58 ERA reminiscent of his strong start to the season, though his 19.8% strikeout rate and eight homers allowed in seven starts both leave his long-term viability as a rotation arm in question. Overall, he’s delivered a 4.76 ERA and 5.07 FIP in 145 2/3 innings of work this season.

Without Williamson and Ashcraft, the club’s rotation is facing a great deal of uncertainty, with only rookie Andrew Abbott as a surefire big league starter on the roster. Lyon Richardson took the ball against the Cubs for the second game of a doubleheader last night, but sports an ugly 6.75 ERA across three starts in the majors. The club will likely have to turn to the likes of Double-A swingman Carson Spiers and journeyman Brett Kennedy to take on innings with most of the club’s rotation out of commission.

Nick Lodolo Diagnosed With Stress Reaction In Tibia

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Reds starter Nick Lodolo was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his left tibia earlier this week, writes Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. He’ll be in a walking boot and go for another MRI in a couple weeks.

Lodolo was already placed on the 15-day injured list over the weekend. At the time, the club announced his injury as calf tendinitis. The Reds provided a one-month return timetable on Sunday, though it seems likely the revelation of the stress reaction will delay his return further. Manager David Bell told the club’s beat a more definitive recovery timeline won’t be clear until Lodolo’s follow-up imaging two weeks from now.

The 25-year-old southpaw is among the most important players in the organization. Lodolo and fellow top prospect Hunter Greene both made the season-opening rotation in 2022. Each impressed as rookies, enough so in Greene’s case the Reds signed him to the second-largest extension for a pitcher with between one and two years of major league service. Lodolo hasn’t inked the same kind of deal, though his camp reportedly had some conversations with Cincinnati brass about that possibility last month.

It had been a mixed season for Lodolo even prior to the injury. He’s been tagged for a 6.29 ERA over 34 1/3 innings through his first seven starts. That’s largely attributable to a staggering 10 home runs allowed (2.62 HR/9). The home run ball wasn’t an issue for Lodolo during his debut season, though, and he’s shown strong strikeout and walk numbers during year two. The TCU product has fanned 28.3% of opponents behind a strong 12.9% swinging strike percentage while cutting his walk rate from 8.8% to 6%.

Lodolo, Greene and Graham Ashcraft had been locked into rotation spots if healthy. With Lodolo out for a notable chunk of time, Cincinnati called up Brandon Williamson to make his MLB debut yesterday. Lodolo’s college teammate fared well in his first start, throwing 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball at Coors Field. Nightengale writes that Williamson is expected to remain in the rotation, joining Greene, Ashcraft and Luke Weaver.

For the fifth spot, the Reds appear likely to turn to righty Ben Lively. The 31-year-old has come out of the bullpen twice, combining for 5 1/3 frames, since being selected to replace Luis Cessa on the roster a little over a week ago. Nightengale writes that Lively will get the start on Friday against the Yankees, pushing him into the role he manned for Triple-A Louisville. He’d started four of five appearances with the Bats, working to a 2.33 ERA despite a middling 15.2% strikeout rate. His start will be his first at the big league level since 2018, when he took the ball five times for the Phillies.

Reds To Recall Brandon Williamson

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The Reds will call up pitching prospect Brandon Williamson for his major league debut tomorrow, tweets Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Cincinnati is still deciding whether to start him or deploy him following an opener, but he’ll make his major league debut in Colorado.

Williamson is already on the 40-man roster. Cincinnati selected his contract last offseason to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He’s spent the 2023 campaign on optional assignment to Triple-A Louisville. He joined the taxi squad earlier today and will formally get his first major league call tomorrow. Cincinnati will need to make a 26-man roster move to accommodate his promotion.

The 6’6″ southpaw entered the professional ranks in 2019. The Mariners selected him in the second round out of TCU. Williamson showed intriguing stuff and racked up huge strikeout tallies up through Double-A over his first couple pro seasons. Heading into 2022, Baseball America named him the sport’s #83 overall minor league talent and called him a potential mid-rotation arm. Coming out of the lockout, the Reds acquired him as the top prospect in their return for Jesse Winker in the trade that saw Seattle absorb the final three years of the Eugenio Suárez contract.

Since landing with the Reds, Williamson has seen his prospect stock back up a little bit. He’s struggled to throw strikes and seen his swing-and-miss numbers dip against upper minors hitters. Williamson combined for a 4.11 ERA in 122 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last year. He dropped off BA’s top 100, falling to tenth in the Cincinnati farm system in their estimation. The outlet suggested he looked more like a back-of-the-rotation type as his fastball velocity dipped into the lower 90s.

He’s had a tough beginning to the season in Louisville. Over eight starts, Williamson has allowed a 6.62 ERA in 34 innings. His 16.4% strikeout rate is the lowest of his professional career, while he’s still walking batters at an elevated 12.1% clip. He’s allowed just four runs in a combined 11 2/3 frames over his last two appearances, however. That’s enough for Cincinnati to give him a look at the back of a beleaguered major league rotation.

The Reds are expected to be without Nick Lodolo for a month due to a calf injury. They also recently designated struggling starter Luis Cessa for assignment, subtracting two members from their starting five. Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft and Luke Weaver are the only three pitchers with guaranteed rotation spots. Williamson should have a path to carving out a role if he performs well.

Cincinnati promoted another of its better prospects, middle infielder Matt McLain, for tonight’s game against the Rockies. Reds’ fans will get to see successive major league debuts on consecutive days as the front office starts to get looks at players it hopes can be pieces of a more competitive future. Cincinnati’s 18-22 start is enough to keep them within range of a weak NL Central thus far, but they’re not likely to hang in the divisional picture for a full season with their current rotation.

Reds Place TJ Friedl On IL With Oblique Strain

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The Reds announced a series of roster moves today, including the selection of prospect Matt McLain, which was reported on yesterday. To make room for McLain on the active roster, outfielder TJ Friedl was placed on the 10-day injured list due to a left oblique strain, retroactive to May 12. To open a spot for McLain on the 40-man roster, first baseman Joey Votto was transferred to the 60-day IL. Additionally, left-hander Brandon Williamson is with the club on the taxi squad.

Friedl recently underwent an MRI which revealed only mild damage, though manager David Bell said on the weekend that the club would take 48 hours to decide on whether or not an IL trip was needed. It seems that they have decided on the cautious approach and will give Friedl a bit of a breather. Since the move is backdated, he can return in a week if the issue does indeed prove to be minor.

The loss of Friedl is rough for the Reds, as he’s been having a great season so far. He’s hitting .306/.351/.468 for a wRC+ of 117 while stealing four bases and getting good grades for his glovework, leading to a tally of 1.2 wins above replacement from FanGraphs after just 37 games. He’ll now hit the shelf but his absence will create an opening for McLain, one of the club’s many interesting infield prospects.

Votto’s move to the 60-day injured list isn’t a shock as he’s still trying to get healthy in the wake of last year’s rotator cuff and bicep surgery. He started a rehab assignment earlier this year but halted that in the middle of April and has yet to resume playing in official games. Since the 60-day count goes from his initial IL placement at the end of March, he’s now ineligible to return until late May, which didn’t seem to be on the table anyway.

As for Williamson, he’s one of the club’s top pitching prospects and could potentially be making his major league debut this week. The Reds have a couple of rotation vacancies after recently designating Luis Cessa for assignment and placing Nick Lodolo on the injured list. Perhaps Williamson will be slotted into one of those openings, though that has yet to be made official. He’s already on the 40-man roster but would require a corresponding move to get onto the active roster.

The Reds Should Expand Their Youth Movement Even Further

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The Reds entered the 2023 season with a trio of young starters — Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft — headlining their rotation, as well as a rookie third baseman (Spencer Steer) and a closer entering just his second big league season (Alexis Diaz). None of that quintet had more than a year of Major League service time. Ashcraft and Steer both had less than one full year. The Reds might’ve spent a small amount on veteran free agents this offseason (e.g. Wil Myers, Luke Weaver, Curt Casali, Luke Maile), but one look at the roster left little doubt this was a rebuilding team.

Six weeks into the season, the youth movement has brokered mixed results. Greene and Ashcraft (Sunday’s meltdown notwithstanding) have both looked impressive in the rotation. Diaz is doing his best impression of his older brother, striking out a stunning 51.2% of his opponents through 11 innings. Steer has delivered roughly league-average offense and shown some versatility, beginning to take regular reps at first base with Myers and Joey Votto both on the injured list. Lodolo has been extraordinarily homer-prone, but his strikeout and walk rates are every bit as encouraging as they were during a strong rookie effort in 2022.

Cincinnati fans are getting a glimpse at the hopeful future core for the Reds, but it’s becoming increasingly clear that more youthful reinforcements are — or should be — on the horizon. The Reds have every reason to let Lodolo try to sort through his homer woes at the big league level, but the fourth and fifth spots of the rotation are another story entirely. Those have been occupied by veterans Weaver and the just minutes-ago-DFA’d Luis Cessa for the bulk of the season, and the results rather unsurprisingly haven’t been good.

Weaver has made just three starts to Cessa’s six, and while a 7.88 ERA doesn’t inspire any confidence, Weaver has at least posted a 26% strikeout rate against an 8.2% walk rate. They’re both better than average marks — the strikeout rate in particular. Like Lodolo (and many other Reds hurlers who have the challenge of pitching at Great American Ball Park), Weaver’s home run rate is through the roof (2.81 HR/9). The Reds spent a couple million dollars to sign him as a free agent, and Weaver’s only had three starts. Ugly as they’ve been, he’ll get another few turns, even if the leash is (or should be) short.

Cessa’s spot seemed far more vulnerable. (Hence the bulk of this piece already having been written just prior to his DFA… thanks for prompting some last-minute rewrites, Reds!) In six starts, he allowed an earned run per inning, walked more batters than he struck out, and was moved to the bullpen for his most recent appearance. He didn’t start a single game from 2019-21, making the Reds’ decision to move him into the rotation last year and then to guarantee him a 2023 rotation spot a rather peculiar one.

Cessa posted a pedestrian 4.30 ERA in ten starts last season with an even less-encouraging 5.02 FIP. That might’ve made him a fine sixth or seventh starting option, but the Reds opted to only sign Weaver this offseason and leave the rotation largely unaddressed. Veteran Chase Anderson was re-signed on a minor league deal, but he’s already been traded to the Rays after triggering an opt-out in his contract. Right-hander Ben Lively was re-signed to a minor league deal, and the Reds selected him to the roster today alongside fellow offseason journeyman pickup Kevin Herget.

It’s not clear whether the 31-year-old Lively and 32-year-old Herget are short-term stopgaps or will get an actual look on the roster in the coming weeks, but even before this afternoon’s slate of moves, the crux of this argument has been that the Reds have more interesting options than the veterans they’ve plugged into the fourth and fifth spots of the rotation thus far. The promotions of Lively and Herget don’t change that.

Lefty Brandon Williamson and right-hander Levi Stoudt both came to Cincinnati by way of trade with the Mariners, coming over in the Jesse Winker/Eugenio Suarez and Luis Castillo trades, respectively. Neither has dominated in Triple-A to begin the season, though Stoudt did make his MLB debut in a spot start last month. Williamson, currently sporting an ERA north of 7.00 in 28 1/3 Triple-A frames, has not yet pitched in the big leagues. It’s worth noting that nearly all the damage against him came in one start, where he did not escape the first inning against the Cubs’ top affiliate and was thrashed for eight runs. Stoudt needs to improve upon the poor command he’s shown in Louisville before getting a real look in the big leagues.

The Reds have one particular minor league powerhouse who looks on the cusp of MLB readiness, however: left-hander Andrew Abbott. The 2021 second-round pick has skyrocketed through the minor leagues, reaching Double-A last year as a 23-year-old in his first full professional season and then overpowering both Double-A and Triple-A opponents early in the 2023 season.

Abbott opened the current campaign with 15 2/3 innings in Double-A, allowing just two runs on six hits and three walks with an astonishing 36 strikeouts. That’s not a typo; Abbott fanned a comical 64.3% of his opponents in those three Double-A starts before the Reds rather naturally jumped him to Triple-A. He hasn’t continued on at that deity-like pace at the top minor league level … he’s “merely” posted a 3.00 ERA with a 38.7% strikeout rate in another 15 innings of work. All in all, Abbott has 30 2/3 innings of 2.05 ERA ball with an eye-popping 50.8% strikeout rate to go along with a 7.6% walk rate, 41.5% ground-ball rate and 0.88 HR/9 mark.

The 23-year-old Abbott’s most recent start just happened to fall on Sunday, which would line him up to be fully rested come Saturday, when the Reds’ listed starter is TBD. That had been Cessa’s spot in the rotation, but Cincinnati opted to start Ashcraft on four days’ rest instead of giving Cessa his usual turn. (Ashcraft was blasted for eight runs in 1 2/3 innings.) It’s always possible that they’ll look into alternatives for the time being, preferring to give Abbott more seasoning and hold off on adding him to the 40-man roster just yet. But each of Williamson (May 5), Stoudt (May 6) and Herget (May 4) saw their most recent starts fall on a date that would line them up to pitch between now and Saturday.

If the Reds are indeed going to tap into their farm to make a change, Abbott is not only the best option in terms of 2023 performance — he’s also the starter who’s likeliest to be on full rest and ready to make that start. Even if Cincinnati bypasses him in favor of Lively or Herget this coming weekend, he’s already made the clear case that he’s a better option for the big league rotation than either Weaver or Cessa. And assuming Williamson can continue to shake off the impact of that catastrophic outing against the Cubs’ Iowa club — he rebounded with a quality start in his next appearance — it might not be long before either he or Stoudt stakes a claim to the fifth spot.

Going with a youth-forward rotation obviously has its pitfalls, but the Reds’ lack of offseason activity on the starting pitching front — both in terms of established big league starters and even in terms of veteran depth on minor league deals — clearly set the stage for that to eventually be the case in 2023. It’s not hard to imagine the Reds rolling with five starters who have under two years of big league service by sometime next month, if not sooner. The next step in the process should come this weekend. It’s only six starts, but Abbott looks like one of the organization’s four best rotation options at this point. Today’s moves might have added some fresh arms in Lively and Herget, but plugging either into the rotation would only continue treading water as they were with Cessa.

Reds Release Chad Pinder

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The Reds announced Friday that they’ve released veteran infielder/outfielder Chad Pinder, who’d been in camp on a minor league deal. Cincinnati also reassigned righty Chase Anderson and infielder/outfielder Matt Reynolds to minor league camp. Left-hander Brandon Williamson has been optioned to Triple-A Louisville. Pinder had an opt-out in his minor league contract tomorrow. That’s also true of Anderson, but he’ll remain with the club at least for the time being.

Pinder, 31 next week, has spent his entire career to date with the A’s, for whom he posted a .242/.294/.417 batting line in 1740 plate appearances. Well versed in the outfield corners and at second base (and, to a lesser extent, at third and shortstop), he’s long been a right-handed utility option for Oakland. That’s due in large part to the righty-swinging Pinder’s career .264/.332/.456 batting line against left-handed pitching — a solid mark by any measure but even more so when factoring in the cavernous home park in which the A’s play their games.

Unfortunately, the 2022 season was one of the least-productive of his six-year big league career (.235/.263/.385 in 379 plate appearances). Spring training with his new club didn’t go any better, as Pinder was just 4-for-39 with nine strikeouts in 42 plate appearances over 15 games. Overall, he slashed just .103/.167/.154 in this spring’s small sample of at-bats.

Anderson and Reynolds were both with the Reds in 2022 as well. Anderson pitched 24 innings but was hit hard, yielding a 6.38 ERA. He’s struggled in each of the past three seasons now, but from 2014-19 he was a solid fourth starter for the D-backs and Brewers, pitching 857 innings of 3.94 ERA ball. Reynolds, meanwhile, batted .246/.320/.332 in 272 trips to the plate last season while spending time at every position except catcher.

Williamson, 24, is one of the more promising pitching prospects in Cincinnati’s system, though his stock took a hit with a somewhat shaky 2022 season. Acquired from the Mariners in the Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez trade, Williamson entered the 2022 campaign ranked 83rd on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospect list. He posted a decent 4.11 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A but also walked a concerning 13.9% of his opponents.

It’s been an ugly spring the former second-round pick. Williamson has made six appearances and totaled 13 2/3 innings but been tagged for a grisly 11.20 ERA. He’s yielded 18 runs (17 earned) on 20 hits and nine walks with 14 strikeouts in Cactus League play. He’ll head to the Reds’ Louisville affiliate and work to further refine his command. There’s still a clear opportunity for Williamson to make his debut at some point this season, particularly with Luke Weaver likely headed to the injured list.

Reds Select Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte And Four Others, DFA Six Players

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The Reds have selected the contracts of top prospects Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte, as well as Brandon Williamson, Levi Stoudt, Lyon Richardson and Ricky Karcher. As a result, they’ve DFA’d Aristides Aquino, Jeff Hoffman, Art Warren, Derek Law, Jared Solomon and Kyle Dowdy.

De La Cruz and Marte are certainly the most notable of the prospects added. De La Cruz is Cincinnati’s top overall prospect, and ranked 14th overall by MLB.com. Still just 20, De La Cruz made it as high as Double-A in 2022. As he has for most of his young career, De La Cruz mashed there, hitting .305/.358/.553 with eight home runs in 47 games while mostly appearing at shortstop. The Reds have been aggressive in moving their top prospect through the minors, and if he continues to rake into Triple-A next year, it won’t be long before he’s donning a Reds uniform.

Marte, 21, came across in the Luis Castillo deadline blockbuster. He hit .293/.397/.443 with four home runs in 30 games at High-A, and would seem likely to start next year at Double-A. He played shortstop during the minor league season, but has been exclusively at third base in the Arizona Fall League. While Marte is a bit behind De La Cruz, Reds fans can certainly start to dream of the pair of them playing infield in the not-too-distant future.

Of the other prospects added, Brandon Williamson is the only top ten prospect in their system, per MLB.com. He’s a left hander who made 13 starts at Triple-A, pitching to a 4.39 ERA. There’s a good chance he features at some point in 2023 in the big leagues. Elsewhere, Stoudt and Karcher are both pitchers who featured at Triple-A in 2022, while neither had dominant results, there’s a chance both would have been called upon anyway as pitching depth. Richardson is a hard-throwing right hander who’s struggled with injuries of late, but even though he’s not pitched above High-A, the Reds clearly feel his arm has enough talent to avoid risking losing him in the draft.

Aquino is the most high profile of the players cut loose by the Reds. He hit a staggering 14 home runs during August in 2019 for a .320/.391/.767 line in that period, but hasn’t hit much since. In 2022, he posted a line of just .197/.246/.363 while striking out more than a third of his plate appearances. Hoffman pitched to a 3.83 ERA across 44 2/3 innings out of the bullpen. Both players were arbitration eligible and non-tender candidates, so it’s not surprising to see them cut loose to open up valuable 40-man spots.

Solomon, Law, Dowdy and Warren all pitched a handful of innings each out of the Reds’ bullpen, but none had much success, and all seemed like near-certain DFA candidates as the Reds look to make room for their young prospects.

Mariners Acquire Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez From Reds

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The Mariners made a massive addition to their lineup, announcing the acquisition of star outfielder Jesse Winker and third baseman Eugenio Suárez from the Reds. Seattle will reportedly assume the entirety of the three years and $35MM remaining on Suárez’s contract. In return, they’re sending pitching prospect Brandon Williamson, outfielder Jake Fraley, right-hander Justin Dunn and a player to be named later to Cincinnati.

Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has been open about his hunt for offensive help throughout the winter. Seattle already signed reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to a five-year contract, but they hadn’t previously done a whole lot to bolster the offense aside from a deal that brought in Adam Frazier from the Padres.

Winker got his due as a first-time All-Star last season, but he’s quietly been an excellent hitter for some time. He’s had a wRC+ of 127 or better (output at least 27 percentage points above the league average) in four of his five career seasons. The former supplemental first-rounder has been particularly impressive the past couple years. Going back to the start of the 2020 campaign, he owns a .292/.392/.552 line with 36 home runs over 668 plate appearances.

Last year, he tallied 485 trips to the dish and hit a personal-best .305/.394/.556 with a strong 10.9% walk rate and a 15.5% strikeout percentage that’s more than seven points lower than the league average. Winker rarely swings and misses or chases pitches outside the strike zone, and he’s capable of doing plenty of damage when he makes contact. He posted well above-average marks in terms of barrel rate, hard contact percentage and average exit velocity.

It’s easy to see the appeal for Seattle in adding that kind of offensive firepower to the lineup. Despite winning 90 games, the Mariners didn’t have an especially productive offense last year. Seattle hitters ranked just 21st in team wRC+ (excluding pitchers). They finished 22nd in total runs scored. Winker should be a massive boon to a unit that’ll need to improve if they’re to snap a 20-year playoff drought.

That said, Winker isn’t entirely without flaws. He’s limited to the corner outfield defensively, and he’s never rated favorably in the eyes of public metrics. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him as 20 runs below average in 2,335 2/3 career innings in the corners (in addition to three runs below average in 138 innings as a center fielder). Statcast’s Outs Above Average has him at -21 plays as a big leaguer, including a -7 mark last season.

The left-handed hitting Winker also has some of the league’s most notable platoon splits. He’s been downright elite in his career against right-handed pitching (.313/.405/.556), but his numbers without the platoon advantage (.188/.305/.295) have been unimpressive. Winker’s probably not a strict platoon player — he does at least draw a boatload of walks against southpaws — but his impact has been concentrated to feasting on righties.

Perhaps of more concern than any aspect of his talent, though, has been his lack of volume. Winker has gone on the injured list in every full season of his MLB career. Heading into last season, the 28-year-old had never tallied even 400 plate appearances in a big league campaign. He picked up a personal-high in playing time last year, but he ended the season on the IL after suffering an intercostal strain in mid-August (from which he unsuccessfully tried to return in September).

That all makes Winker a tricky player to value, but there’s little question he’ll improve Seattle’s overall offense. He’ll presumably step in as the M’s regular left fielder, joining an outfield that could feature Jarred Kelenic in center and Mitch Haniger in right. Former Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis is coming off another serious knee injury, and Dipoto told reporters (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times) he’s unlikely to be ready for the start of the season as they proceed with caution in his recovery. Former top prospect Taylor Trammell and utilityman Dylan Moore could be depth options behind the presumptive season-opening trio of Winker, Kelenic and Haniger. Julio Rodriguez, among the top handful of prospects in the game, mashed at Double-A at the end of last season.

Winker will probably be in the Pacific Northwest for at least the next two seasons. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $6.8MM salary via arbitration this year. He’ll be controllable via that process once more next winter before reaching free agency in advance of his age-30 season.

In order to entice the Reds to part with a player of Winker’s caliber, the M’s are taking on far more money than just his projected arbitration figures. Cincinnati signed Suárez to a $66MM extension in March 2018, which will pay him a bit more than $13MM annually for the next three seasons. (The deal also includes a $15MM club option for 2025). Initially, that looked to be a shrewd investment by the Cincinnati front office, as Suárez went on to earn down-ballot MVP support in each of the following two years. Yet after combining for a .277/.362/.550 line over that stretch, he’s struggled the past couple seasons.

Suárez hit .202/.312/.470 during the shortened 2020 campaign. That’s a ghastly batting average, but he offset it somewhat with a robust 13% walk rate and 15 homers in only 231 plate appearances. However, his issues at the plate mounted last year. His walk percentage dipped to a solid but no longer elite 9.8%, not sufficient to make up for an even lower .198 batting average. Suárez reached base at only a .286 clip — the sixth-lowest mark among the 135 players who totaled 500+ plate appearances. He still hit for power (31 homers), but the on-base issues and his inability to successfully acclimate to an ill-advised move from third base to shortstop kept his overall production in the realm of replacement level.

Clearly, the Mariners assumed Suárez’s deal as a means to acquire Winker. That said, it seems likely they’ll give him some opportunity to try and right the ship in his new environs. Seattle bought out longtime third baseman Kyle Seager at the end of the year. Abraham Toro looks like the in-house favorite for playing time at the hot corner, but Toro can bounce between the corners and second base as a bat-first utility option as well. Divish tweets that Suárez is likely to step in as the primary third baseman, at least to begin the year, with Toro deployed around the diamond as needed.

The acquisitions of Suárez and Winker will add around $20MM to the Mariners’ 2022 books. That puts this year’s estimated expenditures at $106MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s well above last year’s season-opening $73MM mark but nowhere close to franchise-record payrolls that exceeded $150MM from 2017-18. Precisely how much remains in the coffers isn’t clear, although it seems they’re content with the position player group. Dipoto told reporters (including Daniel Kramer of MLB.com) the club was unlikely to make further moves on that side of the ball. Seattle had been linked to big-ticket free agents like Kris Bryant and Trevor Story this offseason, but Dipoto called their pursuits of free agent hitters “dead ends.”

The Winker acquisition marked another aggressive move for a win-now Mariners team, but it’s a continuation of payroll-cutting efforts for the Reds. Cincinnati traded away Tucker Barnhart and lost Wade Miley on waivers for little to no return in November. They’ve listened to trade offers on their top three starting pitchers, and they moved Sonny Gray to the Twins for pitching prospect Chase Petty over the weekend.

This afternoon’s swap is the most notable to date, as the Reds slice around $20MM in 2022 commitments off the books. Of arguably greater import, they find a way out of the future commitments to Suárez. Only Joey Votto ($25MM) and Mike Moutakas ($18MM) have guaranteed money on the Cincinnati books in 2023, and the payroll slate is completely clean by 2024. Reds brass has pushed back against the idea they’re orchestrating a full teardown, but the recent subtractions of Winker and Gray make it more difficult for what had been an 83-79 team to contend this season.

Against that backdrop, it wouldn’t be surprising to see further subtractions by Cincinnati. Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle each have two more seasons of arbitration control, as Winker did. Both pitchers would bring back a haul if the Reds made them available, particularly with the free agent market essentially now bereft of mid-rotation options.

Even if the Reds have further moves on the horizon, however, the players they bring back should all factor into the mix in short order. Fraley and Dunn are immediate big leaguers, and Fraley seems likely to step right into the left field spot vacated by Winker’s departure. The left-handed hitter struggled in limited big league looks between 2019-20, but he showed reasonably well this past season.

Fraley picked up 265 plate appearances last year, hitting .210/.352/.369 with nine homers and ten steals. The batting average is obviously subpar, but the LSU product more than compensated with an elite 17.4% walk rate. Fraley’s extremely patient approach at the plate should make him a serviceable on-base option. He’s primarily been a left fielder in the big leagues, but he’s capable of covering center in a pinch. Fraley’s controllable through 2026 and isn’t on track to reach arbitration eligibility until 2024.

Dunn, meanwhile, is a former first-round pick who went to Seattle from the Mets in the Edwin Díaz/Robinson Canó trade. He’s made 25 starts over his three big league seasons, posting a 3.94 ERA in 102 2/3 innings. The 26-year-old’s peripherals don’t support that kind of run prevention; he’s benefitted from an unsustainable .205 opponents’ batting average on balls in play and has walked an untenable 15.5% of batters faced. Despite averaging a decent 93.8 MPH on his four-seam fastball last year, he only generated swinging strikes on 9.7% of his offerings (a bit below the 10.9% league mark for starters).

Like Fraley, Dunn is an affordable, MLB-ready piece though. He’s controllable through 2025 and won’t reach arbitration until next season. If the Reds do move one or both of Castillo and Mahle, Dunn could factor into the back of the rotation immediately. He might also be a candidate for a bullpen transfer — some prospect evaluators have long suggested he’d be a better fit in relief — where he could aid a Cincinnati bullpen that was among the league’s worst.

Fraley and Dunn are the more well-known parts of the return, but Williamson is quite likely the player the Reds value most of the trio. A second-round pick out of TCU in 2019, the southpaw has impressed evaluators since getting into pro ball. Baseball America ranked him as the game’s #83 overall prospect this winter (fifth in the Seattle system), noting that the 6’6″ lefty can run his fastball into the mid-90s and has a potential 70-grade curveball on the 20-80 scouting scale.

BA writes that the 23-year-old could develop into a #3/4 starter. FanGraphs slotted Williamson 61st on their recent Top 100 list, opining that control issues could limit his ability to work deep into games consistently but praising his repertoire and suggesting he could be “dominant” for five-six innings per start. Williamson pitched his way to Double-A last year, working 67 1/3 innings of 3.48 ERA ball with an excellent 33% strikeout rate and a fine 8.1% walk percentage. He seems likely to get a big league look at some point this season and may eventually work alongside college teammate Nick Lodolo in the Reds’ rotations of the future.

The Reds also pick up a player to be named later who is reportedly a notable part of the return. Moreover, general manager Nick Krall told reporters (including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com) they plan to reinvest some of the money they saved in free agency. Cincinnati fans may roll their eyes at their assertion, given the club’s cost-cutting efforts to date, but Krall reasserted that this was not going to be a multi-year teardown.

The deal offers a major shakeup to both organizations. The M’s continue to push forward in an effort to hang with the Astros (and perhaps the Angels) at the top of the AL West. The Reds’ hopes of contending were dealt another blow, but the front office continues to maintain they’re not punting on the 2022 campaign. Whether Cincinnati’s future moves back up that assertion remains to be seen, but there’ll be no shortage of demand if they turn their attention to trading away either Castillo or Mahle.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Mariners were acquiring Winker. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the Mariners were acquiring Suárez and that the Reds were acquiring Fraley, Williamson and Dunn. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that Seattle was taking on the entirety of Suárez’s contract. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the Reds were acquiring a player to be named later who “enhances” the quality of their return.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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