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Brandon Walter

Astros Sign Brandon Walter To Minor League Deal

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The Astros have signed left-hander Brandon Walter to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. The lefty was released by the Red Sox earlier this month, freeing him up to sign this deal.

Walter, 27, was a 26th-round selection of the Sox in the 2019 draft. He made a brief professional debut at the Rookie ball level that year, but the minor leagues were then canceled in 2020 by the pandemic. In the years after that, he elevated his prospect stock with some encouraging results.

In 2021, he tossed 89 1/3 innings across the Single-A and High-A levels, allowing 2.92 earned runs per nine. He struck out 36.3% of batters faced while only giving out walks at a 5.5% clip and also got grounders on more than half of the balls in play he allowed. Baseball America ranked him #11 in Boston’s system going into 2022, noting that he spent the pandemic shutdown year overhauling his arsenal.

In 2022, he was bumped up to Double-A and made nine starts there before getting moved to Triple-A. A bulging cervical disk ended his season in June, after just two starts at the top minor league level. Nonetheless, he finished the year with a solid 3.59 ERA in 57 2/3 innings in his 11 starts over those two levels. He struck out 32.2% of batters faced, gave out walks just 3% of the time and continued to get lots of grounders.

In November of 2022, the Sox added him to their roster to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft, then his results weren’t quite as impressive in 2023. He tossed 23 major league innings with a 6.26 ERA in that small sample, as well as a 15.1% strikeout rate and 6.6% walk rate. He also added another 94 Triple-A frames with a 4.60 ERA, 21.3% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate and 49.5% ground ball rate.

Here in 2024, he hasn’t yet pitched in an official game. He landed on the minor league injured list to start the year with a strained left rotator cuff, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive on X. The Sox needed a 40-man roster spot when acquiring righty Lucas Sims at the deadline and designated Walter for assignment. Injured players can’t be placed on outright waivers, so the Sox essentially had no choice but to release him.

At this point, it’s not publicly known what Walter’s health status is. Even if his shoulder has healed and he’s ready to take the mound again shortly, he’ll presumably need some ramp-up time in order to get back into game shape. That might make him more of a long-term play for Houston as opposed to immediate non-roster depth. But Walter has posted some intriguing numbers in recent years when healthy, so it’s understandable why they would be interested in bringing him aboard.

If he eventually gets his roster spot back, he will still have one option year remaining after this one, and there would be an easy case for a fourth option to be granted on account of him missing most or maybe all of 2024. He also has less than a year of service time, meaning he can be controlled for many years into the future.

Red Sox Outright Reese McGuire, Yohan Ramirez

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The Red Sox had a few DFA resolutions this afternoon (relayed on X by Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic). Boston confirmed the perviously reported news that Chase Anderson was headed to free agency. The Sox also outrighted catcher Reese McGuire and reliever Yohan Ramírez while releasing left-hander Brandon Walter.

Boston pushed McGuire off the roster with the Danny Jansen acquisition. The lefty-hitting catcher had backed up Connor Wong all season. McGuire started the season hot but his offense has plummeted over the past few months. He’s hitting .209/.280/.295 through 158 plate appearances overall. Acquired from the White Sox at the 2022 trade deadline, McGuire has a .264/.315/.370 slash in parts of three seasons with Boston.

The 29-year-old McGuire has just under five years of major league service. That’s the cutoff at which a player can decline an outright assignment in favor of free agency while keeping the guaranteed money on his contract. For McGuire to test the market now, he’d need to forfeit the nearly $500K remaining on his $1.5MM arbitration salary. That makes it likely he’ll report to Triple-A Worcester and serve as non-roster catching depth for the rest of the season. He’d be a minor league free agent next winter if the Sox don’t put him back on the MLB team.

Ramírez, also 29, finally goes unclaimed after hitting the waiver wire for the fifth time in his career. The out-of-options righty has played for four teams this year alone. He’s logged 45 innings — most of them with the Dodgers — across 38 appearances. Despite roughly league average strikeout and walk numbers, Ramírez has been tagged for a 6.20 earned run average. He spent less than a week on Boston’s MLB roster. Claimed off waivers from L.A. on July 28, he was designated for assignment three days later so the Sox could call up infielder Nick Sogard.

After crossing the three-year service threshold this summer, Ramírez earned the right to elect free agency in lieu of an outright assignment. The Sox didn’t announce whether he’ll do so. Unlike McGuire, Ramírez was playing on a pre-arbitration deal, so he wouldn’t be leaving any kind of guaranteed money on the table if he wanted to explore other opportunities. If he reports to Worcester, he’d also be eligible for minor league free agency in the offseason unless the Sox reselect his contract.

Walter’s release was an inevitability once Boston designated him for assignment on Tuesday. The left-hander has been on the minor league injured list all season. Teams are not allowed to place injured players on outright waivers and Walter can’t be traded after the deadline since he had been on the 40-man roster. That left a release as the only outcome.

The Sox could try to bring him back on a minor league contract if he clears release waivers, but he’d be free to explore other opportunities. The 27-year-old Walter appeared in nine games for Boston last season in his first MLB action. He allowed a 6.26 ERA through 23 innings in a long relief capacity. The University of Delaware product has a solid 3.61 mark over parts of four minor league seasons, working mostly from the rotation.

Red Sox Acquire Lucas Sims

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The Red Sox announced the acquisition of reliever Lucas Sims from the Reds. Pitching prospect Ovis Portes is going back to Cincinnati. Boston designated left-hander Brandon Walter for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot.

Sims spent parts of seven seasons in Cincinnati. A former first-round pick by the Braves, the Georgia native struggled in Atlanta before going to the Reds at the 2018 deadline in the Adam Duvall trade. Cincinnati quickly moved Sims to the bullpen, where he’s been a bit volatile but flashed high-leverage upside.

After a strong showing during the abbreviated 2020 schedule, Sims showed huge swing-and-miss potential in ’21. He lost most of the next season to injuries that culminated in season-ending back surgery. Sims rebounded to turn in 61 innings of 3.10 ERA ball a year ago. He carries a 3.57 mark through 35 1/3 frames this season.

Sims has fanned an above-average 26% of batters faced. His 11.3% swinging strike percentage is solid but down a few points from last year’s excellent 14.3% clip. The 30-year-old righty has been a bit homer-prone this year — strangely much more so on the road than at Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park — and has always had wobbly control. He’s walking 13% of batters faced this season after handing out free passes at a 15.1% clip a year ago.

That command leads to some inconsistency, but he’s posted generally strong results while working in the middle to late innings for skipper David Bell. Sims owns a 3.27 mark with a 27.2% strikeout rate against a 14.3% walk percentage in 110 appearances over the last two years. Opponents have hit .190/.325/.343 over that stretch. Sims has a bit of closing experience but won’t be needed in the ninth inning in Boston. He adds a right-handed setup option in front of Kenley Jansen while Chris Martin and Rule 5 pickup Justin Slaten are on the injured list.

Sims is playing on a $2.85MM salary in his final season of arbitration. He’ll hit free agency for the first time next winter. Boston is taking on roughly $935K for the stretch run. RosterResource calculates Boston’s CBT number around $222MM, giving chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and his group ample flexibility for more moves this afternoon while staying under the $237MM tax line.

Cincinnati is five games out in the Wild Card race. They’re seemingly positioned as soft deadline sellers and have moved impending free agents Frankie Montas and Sims in the past 24 hours (albeit for upper level talent in Montas’ case). The Reds have a strong relief group overall and could feel they’re not taking too much of a hit to their slim playoff chances by parting with Sims and giving a few more meaningful innings to someone like Tony Santillan.

The Reds grab a developmental low minors pitching prospect in the process. Portes, 19, is a 6’4″ righty who signed with the Sox out of Antigua and Barbuda in 2022. He has turned to be a nice find for Boston’s international scouting department. Baseball America ranked him as the #29 prospect in the Boston system, writing that he sits in the mid-90s and can run his fastball up to 99 MPH. He needs to continue developing his secondary stuff and control but there’s intriguing velocity and physical upside. Portes has reached Low-A this season, where he has a 3.43 ERA over 21 innings. He’s striking out more than a quarter of opponents but struggling to throw strikes.

Walter has been on the minor league injured list all season. Injured players cannot go on outright waivers, so the Sox are likely to release him this week. The 27-year-old southpaw made his big league debut last season and tossed 23 innings of 6.26 ERA ball over nine long relief outings.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Red Sox were acquiring Sims. MassLive’s Chris Cotillo suggested Portes might be in the return, which Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirmed.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox’ Noah Song To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Red Sox youngster Noah Song will begin the season on the injured list, with Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reporting that the right-hander is set to undergo Tommy John surgery. He’ll be joined on the shelf to open the season by southpaw Brandon Walter, who per Chris Cotillo of MassLive is nursing a strained rotator cuff in his left arm.

Neither Song nor Walter were expected to open the season in the majors, but the twin injury updates are nonetheless a brutal blow for the club’s pitching depth at the upper levels of the minor leagues. Song, 26, is perhaps the more well known of the pair despite not yet having made his major league debut. The right-hander was one of the more well-regarded hurlers in the 2019 draft but fell to the Red Sox in the fourth round due to his military commitments as a Naval Academy cadet. He made just seven starts in the Red Sox organization before missing the next three seasons while fulfilling his military duties, though he was moved to the naval reserve prior to the 2023 season, allowing him to return to professional baseball.

The Phillies took the opportunity to select Song in the Rule 5 draft that offseason and remained in the organization for the first several months of the 2023 campaign, though he made no appearances at the big league level after beginning the season on the injured list due to a low back strain. Song made his return to a minor league mound in late June and struggled badly with Philadelphia, posting a 7.36 ERA in 11 innings of work across three levels of the minors before the club decided to designate him for assignment in late July.

Song was promptly returned to the Red Sox, and he finished the season strong with a solid 4.15 ERA in 21 2/3 frames at the High-A level down the stretch. Song appeared likely to open the season at the Double-A level for Boston this season, which could’ve potentially put him back on the big league radar at some point this year. That won’t come to pass now, however, as he figures to miss the entire 2024 campaign and perhaps some of the 2025 season as well while rehabbing from surgery.

Walter, 27, was a 26th-round pick by the Red Sox in the 2019 draft and made his big league debut with the club last season. The lefty struggled badly through nine appearances in Boston, pitching to a 6.26 ERA in 23 innings of work. His peripheral numbers indicated that his performance was better than the results indicated, as he posted a 4.60 FIP that was closer to league average. Walter’s numbers at the Triple-A level were similarly mediocre, as he threw 94 innings of 4.60 ERA ball while striking out 21.3% of batters faced.

Despite those uninspiring results, the lefty figured to provide the Red Sox with upper-level pitching depth capable of pitching out of the rotation and the bullpen behind fellow lefties Joely Rodriguez and Brennan Bernardino, though now he’ll be out of action for the foreseeable future. The club still has not only Bernardino but also arms such as Cooper Criswell and Zack Kelly available as depth options on the 40-man roster who can be called upon to supplement the big league club as needed, however.

Red Sox Reinstate Chris Sale From 60-Day Injured List

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The Red Sox announced that they have reinstated left-hander Chris Sale from the 60-day injured list, with fellow lefty Brandon Walter optioned in a corresponding move. The 40-man roster previously had a vacancy but is now full. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported the moves prior to the official announcement. Sale will start tonight’s game against the Tigers.

Sale, 34, was once one of the best pitchers in the majors but his health has been the primary focus in recent years. He required Tommy John surgery in 2020, wiping out that season and most of 2021 as well. In 2022, a stress reaction in his ribs kept him out until July. He returned but fractured a finger when he was struck by a comebacker. While on the injured list for that ailment, he broke his wrist in a bicycle accident.

Here in 2023, it was relatively smooth sailing for a while. He tossed 59 innings over 11 starts, allowing 4.58 earned runs per nine innings but he probably deserved better. He struck out 28.5% of batters faced and walked 6%, but his .315 batting average on balls in play and 69.4% strand rate were both a bit on the unlucky side. Metrics like his 3.69 FIP and 3.47 SIERA painted a rosier picture of his season than his ERA.

In early June, he was placed on the 15-day injured list due to shoulder inflammation, though he was later moved to the 60-day IL with his condition described as a stress reaction in his shoulder blade. That has kept him out of action until now, just a bit beyond the 60-day minimum.

What the Sox will get from Sale at this point remains to be seen. His results earlier in the year were decent, but he’s already pitched more innings than in any season since 2019. Perhaps he will run into workload concerns, though his rotation mate James Paxton shows that’s not necessarily the case. The latter has thrown 80 1/3 innings this year with a 3.36 ERA after missing almost all of the previous three campaigns. Sale has one more guaranteed year remaining on his extension with a $27.5MM salary for 2024 and a $20MM club/vesting option for 2025.

Sale and Paxton figure to hold down two rotation spots for now, with Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta and Kutter Crawford in the other three. Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck are both on rehab assignments right now and could factor into that mix soon, though manager Alex Cora recently said there’s “a good chance” Whitlock will be used as a multi-inning reliever upon his return.

Red Sox Designate Dinelson Lamet For Assignment

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1:30pm: The Red Sox have now officially announced these moves.

10:08am: The Red Sox are planning to designate right-hander Dinelson Lamet for assignment as part of a series of roster moves, reports MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith. His spot on the roster will go to veteran righty Kyle Barraclough, whose contract is being selected from Triple-A Worcester. Boston is also set to recall lefty Brandon Walter from Worcester, with righty Nick Robertson being optioned there in his place.

Lamet’s stay on Boston’s big league roster will prove extremely brief. The former Padres and Rockies hurler was only just selected to the Majors two days ago. He appeared in one game, serving up three runs on three hits and a walk with one strikeout and a wild pitch in two innings of work.

Lamet was a legitimate Cy Young contender during the shortened 2020 season, but injuries have been a major issue for the 31-year-old righty in the seasons since. He’s encountered a biceps strain, a UCL sprain, forearm inflammation and a hip injury that required a “cleanup” procedure in the years since that scintillating 2020 effort (wherein he posted a 2.09 ERA and 34.8% strikeout rate in a dozen starts).

Including this brief, unsightly stop with the BoSox, Lamet has a 6.81 ERA in his past 107 big league innings. While he had pitched decently over in Worcester prior to his call to the big leagues, Lamet will make a quick exit in favor of a fresh arm — fellow veteran hurler Barraclough.

The 33-year-old Barraclough has appeared in 288 big league games, all coming out of the bullpen, and posted a 3.61 ERA with a very strong 28.9% strikeout rate but also a woeful 14% walk rate. The bulk of his Major League success came early in his career with the Marlins, from 2015-18. Since that time, he’s logged just 55 2/3 innings while pitching to a 5.17 ERA.

Interestingly, the Red Sox have been using Barraclough as a starter in Worcester, and the experiment has gone quite well. Seven of his eight appearances since signing out of the independent Atlantic League have been starts, and Barraclough has recorded a sharp 2.57 ERA in 42 innings. Granted, his strikeout rate is down considerably (17.8%), and walks remain an issue (11.9%). The Sox either see more to like in Barraclough than Lamet or simply need another fresh arm after Kutter Crawford was knocked out of the game in the fourth inning yesterday, leading to three relievers covering 5 2/3 innings. Lamet and Robertson combined to cover five of those frames.

Now that the trade deadline has come and gone, the Sox’ only options with Lamet are to place him on outright waivers or release waivers. He has more than five years of big league service, so he’ll be able to reject a minor league assignment and become a free agent even if he goes unclaimed. Because of that service time, he’d have been a free agent at season’s end even if he’d stuck on Boston’s roster and performed well for the remainder of the year.

Barraclough, meanwhile, entered the season with 4.089 years of Major League service. The most he’ll be able to accrue from here on out is 54 days, which would leave him shy of five years of service, thus making him eligible to be retained another two seasons via arbitration. There’s quite a ways to go before that’s even a consideration, and it’s likelier that Barraclough will have a brief stay on the roster himself, but that remaining club control is at least worth noting in the event that he sustains his Triple-A pace in the big leagues.

Red Sox Place Garrett Whitlock On IL With Elbow Inflammation

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The Red Sox announces a few roster moves today, with right-hander Garrett Whitlock placed on the 15-day injured list due to right elbow inflammation, retroactive to July 3. Left-hander James Paxton was placed on the paternity list while pitchers Brandon Walter and Tayler Scott were recalled in corresponding moves.

Whitlock started Sunday’s game against the Blue Jays but departed after just one inning due to elbow tightness. Sean McAdam of MassLive reported yesterday that Whitlock would likely land on the IL but that the club wasn’t overly concerned with the nature of the injury. With the upcoming All-Star break, it’s possible that Whitlock only misses a couple of turns through the rotation.

Even if it ultimately proves true that the issue is minor, it’s not ideal timing for the Sox. The rotation is already a bit short-handed with Chris Sale and Tanner Houck each on the injured list already. Corey Kluber and Nick Pivetta each pitched poorly enough earlier in the year to get moved to the bullpen, with Kluber now on the IL as well. Pivetta has pitched well as a reliever of late and the club might prefer to keep him doing that for as long as it’s working.

Those factors have led to the club running a four-man rotation of late, using bullpen days and off-days to make it all work. With Whitlock now out of action, they are down to just Paxton, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford. Paternity list stints last from one to three days, meaning Paxton should be back shortly. The upcoming All-Star break will help the club out but they still have to get through six games before that and will have six straight coming out of the break as well.

For Whitlock personally, this is yet another setback in his attempts to establish himself as a bonafide big league starter. After a successful rookie campaign as a reliever in 2021, the Sox tried moving him to the rotation last year with mixed results. He started the year with four relief appearances and then nine starts before landing on the IL due to hip inflammation. When he returned, he was kept in relief and finished the season with an ERA of 3.45 in 78 1/3 innings.

His ongoing hip issues ultimately required surgery, which landed him on the IL to start this year. He eventually returned but this is now the second time he’s hit the IL this year due to an elbow issue. He’s made 10 starts and logged 51 2/3 innings with a 5.23 ERA. His strikeout rate has dropped to 21.8% after being at 26.4% last year.

Red Sox Make Several Roster Moves

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The Red Sox announced a slate of roster moves this morning, recalling left-hander Brandon Walter and selecting the contract of catcher Caleb Hamilton from Triple-A Worcester. In corresponding 26-man roster moves, Boston placed outfielder Alex Verdugo on the bereavement list and placed catcher Reese McGuire on the 10-day injured list due to a strained oblique. Additionally, infielder Yu Chang was transferred from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list in order to open a spot for Hamilton on the 40-man roster.

The looming promotions of Walter and Hamilton were both reported last night, though the corresponding moves needed to get that pair on the roster weren’t clear until this morning. It’ll be the MLB debut for the 26-year-old Walter, who posted a 2.88 ERA with a ludicrous 68-to-3 K/BB ratio in 50 Double-A innings last year but has struggled so far in Triple-A — both in a late promotion there in ’22 and in a full season so far in ’23. Through his first 69 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level, Walter carries a 6.49 ERA, although a .362 average on balls in play hasn’t helped his cause.

Hamilton, meanwhile, will be on the roster and possibly suit up against the team for which he made his MLB debut last year, when the Red Sox wrap up their series against the Twins in Minneapolis. The 28-year-old went just 1-for-18 in his debut season with Minnesota, though that one hit was a big fly. Hamilton also drew four walks and scored each time, giving him the rare distinction of having come around to score every time he’s reached base in the Majors. He’s hitting .180/.285/.310 through 116 plate appearances in Worcester this season.

The Red Sox haven’t yet revealed how long McGuire will be sidelined, though oblique strains tend to require absences greater than the 10-day minimum and can often last upwards of a month. The 28-year-old McGuire, acquired from the White Sox last year, earned a look at a prominent role in Boston when he hit .337/.377/.500 down the stretch following a trade. He’s fallen well short of that in 2023, however, batting .267/.313/.352 (80 wRC+) and throwing out just two of the 26 runners who’ve attempted to steal against him. Connor Wong will take on an even larger role in McGuire’s absence.

As for Chang, his transfer to the 60-day IL is a procedural move that doesn’t impact his eligibility to return to the club. The “60-day” minimum stay on that list is retroactive to his original placement on the IL, which happened back on April 25. He originally went out on a minor league rehab assignment earlier this month, but that was paused due to continued discomfort in his surgically repaired hand. He’ll likely need another rehab stint before he can return anyhow, and since he’s already spent 58 days on the injured list anyway, the move to the 60-day IL amounts to little more than a formality.

Red Sox To Recall Brandon Walter For MLB Debut

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The Red Sox plan to recall pitching prospect Brandon Walter before tomorrow’s game in Minnesota, tweets Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe. He’s likely to make his MLB debut, either as the starter or as a bulk pitcher behind an opener. Chris Cotillo of MassLive first reported (on Twitter) this afternoon the Sox were mulling a Walter promotion.

It’s the initial big league call for Walter, who first entered pro ball as a 26th-round pick in 2019. A $35K signee out of the University of Delaware, the 6’2″ southpaw didn’t begin his career with much fanfare. After the 2020 minor league season was canceled, Walter put together a breakout showing between two A-ball levels in 2021. He combined for a 2.92 ERA while striking out over 36% of batters faced thanks to a velocity spike, establishing himself on the prospect radar. He split last season between the top two minor league levels.

Each of Baseball America, Keith Law of the Athletic and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN placed Walter in the 9-11 range among Boston prospects last winter. Evaluators praised a three-pitch arsenal led by a plus or better slider. All three outlets suggested he had some chance to stick at the back of a rotation but noted injury and/or delivery concerns that could point to a future in the bullpen.

The 26-year-old has had a tough few months with Triple-A Worcester to open the season. He’s started 12 of 13 games and allowed a 6.28 ERA over 61 2/3 innings. While Walter’s 22.4% strikeout percentage and 9.1% walk rate aren’t that far from average, a lofty .362 batting average on balls in play has led to an inflated ERA.

Boston will look past that and give Walter at least his first big league look. The Sox have an opening in the rotation after Tanner Houck was struck in the face by a comebacker last Friday. Boston hasn’t announced who’ll join James Paxton, Garrett Whitlock, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford in the starting staff over the long haul. Perhaps Walter will get a few opportunities to stake a claim to that job.

The Red Sox added Walter to their 40-man roster last offseason to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. They’ll only need to clear a spot on the active roster to accommodate his promotion.

The Volatile Red Sox Rotation

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The Red Sox have been one of the more capricious teams in recent history. This millenium has seen them win the World Series four times but also finish fifth in the American League East five times. The past five seasons have seen them go from winning it all in 2018 to missing the playoffs in 2019, falling to last in 2020, back to the playoffs in 2021 but then back to the basement last year.

That mercurial nature seems to be embodied in this year’s rotation. There’s plenty of talent but also plenty of risk. It wouldn’t be a total shock to see this group be completely dominant or an utter disaster. Let’s take a look at the candidates and their respective error bars.

Chris Sale

From 2012 to 2018, Sale was one of the best pitchers in the league. He tossed 1,388 innings over that stretch with a 2.91 ERA, 30.2% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate and 42.7% ground ball rate. His 39.2 fWAR in that period was bested only by Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer.

Unfortunately, that’s starting to feel like ancient history now. Sale struggled in 2019 with a 4.40 ERA over 25 starts. That was the “juiced ball” season and his 19.5% HR/FB rate was a career high, so perhaps it wasn’t as bad as it seemed, but ERA estimators still pointed to him taking a step back from his previous work. The three subsequent seasons have been mostly lost to injuries, with Sale undergoing Tommy John surgery in March of 2020. He returned in 2021 and made nine starts that year, but then the injury bug came back the next season. A right rib stress fracture put him on the injured list to start the year, and then he was hit by a comebacker when he returned and suffered a left fifth finger fracture. While on the IL with that finger injury, he fractured his right wrist in a bicycle accident.

Some of those injuries are of the fluky variety and don’t necessarily point to any irreversible core issue. However, Sale will turn 34 years old in March and has pitched less than 50 major league innings in the past three years, including just 5 2/3 last year. It’s difficult to know what to expect from him after so little recent work, and even if he’s in good form, will he eventually hit some kind of wall? Either mandated by the club or just a physical limit?

James Paxton

Paxton is in a fairly similar situation to Sale, though his previous highs aren’t quite as high. From 2016 to 2019, he posted a 3.60 ERA over 568 innings. He struck out 28.5% of batters he faced while walking just 6.7% and got grounders at a 42.6% clip. His 15.1 fWAR in that period was 12th among all pitchers in the league. But various arm injuries have limited him to just six starts since then, with his last in April of 2021. He required Tommy John at that time and was on his way back last year but suffered a lat tear during his rehab.

The Sox could have locked him in for another two seasons by triggering a $26MM option but made the obvious choice to turn that down. Paxton then turned down a chance to return to free agency by triggering his $4MM player option for this year. Like Sale, he’s coming off three mostly lost seasons and will be 34 this year, but he’ll be almost two years removed from his last major league appearance once the season begins. Will he be able to get things back on track and, if so, for how long?

Corey Kluber

Kluber’s arc has some echoes of the two guys already mentioned in this piece, though with more optimistic developments recently. From 2014 to 2018, he made 160 starts with a 2.85 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate, 5.2% walk rate and 44.8% ground ball rate. His 30.3 fWAR just nudged out Sale and trailed only Scherzer and Kershaw.

But after that, a forearm fracture and teres major muscle tear limited him to just eight starts over 2019 and 2020. He got back on track somewhat in 2021, as a shoulder strain sent him to the IL for about three months, but he still made 16 starts with a 3.83 ERA. He stayed healthy enough to take the ball 31 times last year, posting a 4.34 ERA. That came with excellent control as he walked just 3% of batters, but his strikeouts were down to a 20.2% clip.

Those past couple of seasons are encouraging but Kluber turns 37 in April. His fastball averaged 88.9 mph last year, well down from his 94-95 mph peak form. He seems like he has the ability to succeed despite that diminished stuff, but that will likely become more challenging over time, even if he does stay healthy.

Nick Pivetta

Compared to the three previous pitchers on this list, Pivetta is the picture of reliability. He hasn’t been to the injured list for a non-COVID reason during his time in the majors, which began in 2017.

However, that might be his best asset, as he hasn’t exactly wowed with the results. He has a 5.02 ERA for his career and registered a 4.56 mark last year. His 22.6% strikeout rate was slightly better than that of the average starter last year, but his 9.4% walk rate and 38.5% ground ball rate were both a few points worse. He’s not terribly exciting but there’s certainly value to that kind of steadiness, especially amid this erratic group.

Garrett Whitlock

Whitlock had a great season in 2021 after being plucked from the Yankees in the Rule 5 draft. He tossed 73 1/3 innings over 46 relief appearances with a 1.96 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 49.7% ground ball rate. He began 2022 back in the bullpen but the Sox tried stretching him out midseason. He made nine starts before a hip issue sent him to the injured list in June. He returned in July but was kept in a relief role until the hip issue put him on the IL again in September. He underwent surgery for that hip at that time but is expected to be ready for spring.

The club plans on implementing him as a starter here in 2023, which will be an interesting experiment. The 120 2/3 innings he threw in the minors in 2018 are the most in a single season on his résumé, as he’s been in the 70-80 range since then. With just those nine big league starts to his name, can he suddenly jump to a full starter’s workload? And even if he can, will he be able to maintain the same quality of of work that he did in relief in 2021-22?

Tanner Houck

Houck is in a fairly similar boat to Whitlock, as there are intriguing results there but it’s tough to map out the best path forward. He has a 3.02 ERA in 146 innings for his career thus far, striking out 27.6% of batters faced, walking 8.7% and getting grounders at a 49.3% rate. That work has involved 20 starts and 33 relief appearances. The splits aren’t huge, as he has a 3.22 ERA as a starter and a 2.68 out of the ’pen. He dealt with lingering back issues last year that sent him to the injured list in August and he ultimately underwent surgery in September.

The club has indicated they may stretch Houck out as a starter in camp but move him to the bullpen if the five guys ahead of him are all healthy. That still leaves a decent chance of him spending some time in the rotation this year. He made just four starts last year and hasn’t reached 120 innings in any of his professional seasons.

Brayan Bello/Kutter Crawford/Josh Winckowski

These three all have made their major league debuts but likely need more time to develop. Bello registered a 4.71 ERA last year, with Crawford at 5.47 and Winckowski at 5.89. They all have options and might be in the minors to start the year. But given the unstable nature of the arms ahead of them on the depth chart, there’s a chance they will be needed at some point.

Brandon Walter/Bryan Mata/Chris Murphy

These three are all on the 40-man but have yet to reach the majors. Walter and Murphy just got added in November to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. Walter has just nine Double-A starts and two at Triple-A, meaning he likely won’t be lined up for his debut in the immediate future. Murphy made 15 Triple-A starts last year but put up a 5.50 ERA in that time. Mata underwent Tommy John in April of 2021 and was able to return last year and toss 83 innings in the minors, but he has just five Triple-A starts to his name thus far. This group could be called upon if things really go south, but they will likely be behind the Bello/Crawford/Winckowski trio unless things shift as the season progresses.

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As mentioned off the top, there’s plenty of talent here but there are so many ways this could play out. Five years ago, Sale, Paxton and Kluber would have been a dominant front three but the odds of them all suddenly clicking into their previous ace levels are low. Whitlock and Houck have had tantalizing results but each is coming off a season ended by surgery and both are generally unproven as starters over any kind of meaningful stretch. The younger depth options could always take a step forward and seize a job but they probably can’t be counted on yet.

It seems the error bars are quite wide for the Sox going into 2023. Center field and shortstop will be manned by players with minimal experience at those positions in Adam Duvall and Enrique Hernández, respectively. Their first baseman will be Triston Casas, who has 27 MLB games to his name. Their left fielder will be Masataka Yoshida, attempting to make the transition from NPB to MLB. They’re hoping to get some kind of contribution from Adalberto Mondesi, who’s been limited to just 50 games over the past two years combined. There’s uncertainty all over the place, including the rotation. In a style that fits the organization, they could have a miracle season or it could all go horribly wrong.

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