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Brandon Nimmo

Blue Jays Interested In Brandon Nimmo

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The Blue Jays subtracted from their outfield mix earlier today when they dealt Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners. In the wake of that deal, they are now showing interest in adding free agent Brandon Nimmo, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com.

Toronto’s general manager Ross Atkins spoke with members of the media on a conference call after the deal and, though he didn’t mention Nimmo by name, nothing he said would seem to preclude the club from such a bold move. “We’re in a better position to do so now from a resource and from a playing time and recruitment standpoint,” Atkins tells Shi Davidi of Sportsnet on the subject of adding a free agent outfielder. One option that’s on the table is acquiring a center fielder and pushing George Springer over the now-vacated right field position. “I know George will be open to it,” Atkins tells Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.

If the Blue Jays are indeed interested in adding a free agent center fielder, they could hardly do better than Nimmo. Excluding Aaron Judge since he’s more of a right fielder, Nimmo is the clear top option available on the center field market. Then it’s a steep drop down to the next tier, consisting of veterans coming off injury-plagued seasons such as Kevin Kiermaier and Adam Duvall.

Having spent his entire career with the Mets thus far, Nimmo is a quality hitter, primarily for his ability to get on base. His career walk rate is 13.6%, well above the 2022 league average of 8.2%. That’s helped him produce a batting line of .269/.385/.441 for a wRC+ of 134, indicating he’s been 34% above league average in his time in the majors. He’s also been generally regarded as a quality outfielder, though perhaps not elite. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a 5 last year but a -3 in 2022. Ultimate Zone Rating had him at 3.4 in 2021 but -0.4 this year. Outs Above Average, however, had him at a 3 last year and a 6 this year.

Given that excellent production and his ability to also play the corners, Nimmo would likely be able to upgrade the outfield of the majority of teams around the league. It’s possible that Nimmo’s left-handed bat makes him extra appealing to the Blue Jays given their lineup is predominantly right-handed, though that wasn’t really a problem for them in 2022. Against right-handed pitching this year, the club collectively hit .266/.329/.432. That amounts to a 118 wRC+, indicating they were 18% above league average. Only the Dodgers at 122 wRC+ and Mets at 119 wRC+ were better against northpaws, which doesn’t suggest the club needs to make a left-handed bat a specific target.

Regardless, there’s an argument to moving Springer out of center field and into a corner, where the rigors of the position are generally agreed to be lesser. Springer is now 33, more than three years older than Nimmo, who is 29 and turning 30 in March. He’s also dealt with his fair share of injuries since joining the Blue Jays, only getting into 211 total games over the past two years. He’ll recovering from elbow surgery this offseason but is expected to be recovered in time for Spring Training. The advanced defensive metrics have him hovering around average in recent years, not terribly dissimilar to Nimmo. Of course, Nimmo has also dealt with injuries throughout his career, but his only significant absence of the past three seasons was a two-month stay on the IL in 2021 due to a left index finger contusion.

Since the Blue Jays aren’t the only team that could benefit from Nimmo’s skills, they will have competition and he won’t be cheap. The Mets are already known to be interested in bringing him back to Queens. MLBTR recently predicted a contract of $110MM over five years, which works out to $22MM per season. After today’s trade, Roster Resource puts Toronto’s 2023 payroll at $176MM. That means they’re already on track for an increase over last year’s franchise record Opening Day figure of $171MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. A few non-tenders could bump that down a hair but it still means that the club will have to spend into uncharted territory, or make a sizable subtraction, to make a significant free agent splash. Though they upgraded their bullpen today by acquiring Erik Swanson, they likely still need to do some work on the rotation as well. Regardless of where the final number ends up, Atkins seems to think they have the funds necessary to address their needs. He told Nicholson-Smith that today’s trade added payroll flexibility but “we didn’t need it.”

12 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 14 players who received qualifying offers have rejected those one-year, $19.65MM contracts in favor of testing the open market, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Martin Perez and Joc Pederson are the only two who accepted a QO. Each of Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Anderson have rejected the deal. Anderson is already in agreement on a three-year contract with the Angels.

None of the news is all that surprising, aside from perhaps Anderson’s early multi-year strike with the Halos. Perez and Pederson were two of the three most likely candidates to take the QO. That the Giants tagged Pederson at all was a move few saw coming, and most believed he’d indeed take the QO once it was put forth.

None of Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson, deGrom, Rodon, Nimmo, Bassitt or Contreras likely gave much thought to the possibility. Eovaldi and Rizzo were more borderline candidates, but the latter quickly returns to the Yankees on a multi-year deal that’ll pay him around the QO rate over two guaranteed seasons. Eovaldi has yet to sign, but he’ll presumably continue to search for a longer-term contract after taking advantage of the five days to scour the market.

The clubs that saw a free agent decline a qualifying offer now stand to receive draft compensation if that player signs elsewhere. The value of the compensatory pick depends on a team’s status as a revenue sharing recipient and/or whether they paid the luxury tax in 2022. That’s also true of the draft choices and potentially international signing bonus space a team would have to forfeit to sign a qualified free agent from another team.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down the forfeiture each team would have to surrender to sign a qualified free agent earlier this month. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk looked at the compensation each club would receive if one of these players signed elsewhere.

14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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14 players received qualifying offers this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The list is as follows:

As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer a team can make to impending free agents. Players who have previously received a QO in their careers and/or didn’t spend the entire preceding season with one team cannot receive a qualifying offer. The value of the offer is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in MLB. For the 2022-23 offseason, it is set at $19.65MM.

If a player accepts the QO, he returns to his current team for next season on that salary. If he declines, the team would receive compensation if he were to sign elsewhere. The specific compensation depends on the team’s status as both a luxury tax payor and whether they receive revenue sharing payments. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a look at the compensation each team would receive for losing a qualified free agent last week.

Signing a player who refuses a QO from another team requires the signing team to forfeit draft picks and/or international signing bonus space. As with compensation for losing qualified free agents, the specific nature of the forfeiture is dependent on revenue sharing status and the competitive balance tax.

[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]

The majority of players who receive qualifying offers decline them each offseason. Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, deGrom, Swanson, Rodón, Nimmo, Contreras and Bassitt were always virtual locks to receive a QO. They’ll assuredly turn them down and sign multi-year contracts, either with their incumbent teams or other clubs. Rejecting a qualifying offer, to be clear, does not affect a player’s ability to continue negotiating with his previous team.

Rizzo, Anderson and Pérez were all more borderline QO candidates, although reports in recent days had suggested each was likely to receive the offer. There’s a case for all three players in that group to accept, although their representatives will have five days to gauge the market before making that decision. Pérez has reportedly received a two-year offer from Texas. The sides have long expressed mutual interest in agreement, but they’ve yet to come to terms on a longer deal.

The final two qualified free agents come as more surprising developments. Eovaldi always looked like a borderline QO candidate. He recently wrapped up a four-year, $68MM contract with the Red Sox. The right-hander was generally effective over the life of that deal, but his 2022 campaign was more of a mixed bag. Shoulder and back injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings. His 3.87 ERA over that stretch was right in line with his 2020-21 marks, but his strikeout rate dropped a few points to a league average 22.4%. Eovaldi’s fastball also dipped slightly from siting just under 97 MPH down to 95.7 MPH, but that’s still plenty impressive velocity. Paired with his elite strike-throwing ability and the Red Sox’s need for rotation help, they’d be content to bring the 32-year-old back for just under $20MM if he accepted the QO.

The most surprising qualifying offer recipient, however, is Pederson. San Francisco signed the outfielder to a one-year, $6MM deal last winter after an up-and-down 2021 campaign with the Cubs and Braves. The left-handed slugger responded with an excellent .274/.353/.521 showing, connecting on 23 home runs in 433 plate appearances. Pederson also posted elite batted ball marks, including a 93.2 MPH average exit velocity that’s around five MPH above league average. He also made hard contact (a batted ball hit 95 MPH or harder) on a career-best 52.1% of his balls in play.

That figured to give 30-year-old a strong shot at a multi-year offer, although it’s still surprising to see the Giants offer him nearly $20MM to return. Pederson played left field in Oracle Park, but he rated as 12 runs below average over 685 innings in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved. He’s consistently posted subpar defensive marks and is limited to the corner outfield or designated hitter. The Giants also shielded him against southpaws, limping him to 57 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.

Some notable players who were eligible for a qualifying offer but did not receive one include Jameson Taillon, Mitch Haniger, Taijuan Walker, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha. That group will all hit the open market unencumbered by draft pick compensation, which should be a boost to their free agent stocks.

Of the crop of QO recipients, Pederson looks likeliest to accept, although it’s possible that anyone in the group turns the offer down if their reps find interest over multi-year pacts. Players have until the evening of November 15 to determine whether to accept or turn down the QO.

Mets Will Not Make Qualifying Offer To Taijuan Walker

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The Mets have opted against issuing a $19.65MM qualifying offer to right-hander Taijuan Walker, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Walker, who made the easy decision to decline a $7.5MM player option earlier this week, will now reach free agency with no restrictions and will not be subject to draft-pick compensation. Unsurprisingly, Heyman adds that the Mets plan to make a QO to all three of Jacob deGrom, Brandon Nimmo and Chris Bassitt.

Walker, who turned 30 in August, was a borderline candidate and might well have rejected his offer upon receiving one, though the Mets won’t find out and will instead accept the possibility of losing him for no compensation. As a luxury tax payor, they’ll “only” receive a pick between the fourth and fifth round for any free agent who rejects a qualifying offer, and apparently the notion of potentially tying up $19.65MM in salary to Walker right out of the offseason gate wasn’t worth that fairly modest bit of compensation for GM Billy Eppler and his staff.

It’s great news for Walker, who’ll now head into free agency search of a multi-year deal that could span three or perhaps even four years in length. The former top prospect has shaken off many of the injury concerns that stemmed from Tommy John surgery and shoulder surgery earlier in his career, making 69 of roughly 76 possible starts across the past three seasons. That includes 29 starts and more than 155 innings in each of the past two campaigns.

Since 2020, Walker has pitched to a 3.80 ERA with a 21.5% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and a 43.2% ground-ball rate. He’s averaged just about 5 1/3 innings per outing in that time, though that would seem to be more in an effort to monitor his workload than due to strong concerns about turning a lineup over for the third time. Since 2020, Walker has yielded a .232/.303/.391 batting line when facing opponents for the third time on a given day. While his numbers the first and second time through the order are better, it’s not the type of cringeworthy third-time split you’ll see with so many starting pitchers.

Walker’s fastball sat 93.8 mph in 2022, so he doesn’t have premium velocity. He doesn’t miss bats or generate grounders at an especially high level but also limits walks at a solid clip. He may not stand out in any one way, but he increasingly looks like a durable mid-rotation arm who could deepen nearly any starting staff in the Majors.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

Mets Prioritizing Retaining Brandon Nimmo And Edwin Díaz

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The Mets have a huge batch of players departing their roster for free agency in the coming days, a list that includes Brandon Nimmo, Tyler Naquin and almost the entire bullpen, including closer Edwin Díaz. That group is likely to be joined by Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker, who all either have opt-outs they can trigger or options they can turn down. However, the Mets are most interested in retaining Díaz and Nimmo out of that group, according to Andy Martino of SNY.

The club’s interest in Nimmo is fairly understandable for a few reasons. For one thing, Nimmo is very good, having been above-average at the plate in each of the past six seasons. For his career, he’s gotten into 608 games and has walked in 13.6% of his plate appearances, much better than league average, producing an overall batting line of .269/.385/.441. That production is 34% better than the league average hitter, as evidenced by his 134 wRC+, with Nimmo putting up the same number in 2022.

Nimmo is also a serviceable defender in center field, though defensive metrics disagree on exactly how effective he is on the grass. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a -3 this year, but a +4 last year. Ultimate Zone Rating was at -0.4 in 2022 after giving Nimmo a 2.9 in 2021. Outs Above Average was the most optimistic, pegging him with a six this year and a three last year.

Perhaps most importantly, Nimmo stayed healthy this year, getting into 151 games in the regular season and three more in the playoffs. Health has often been a question mark around Nimmo, with 2022 being just the second time he’s gotten into more than 100 games in a campaign. However, he played 55 games in the shortened 2020 season and 92 last year, meaning he’s going into free agency on the heels of a fairly strong three-year stretch in the health department.

What also adds to Nimmo’s appeal is the fairly weak crop of free agent center fielders this year. Outside of Nimmo and Aaron Judge, who’s never been a full-time center fielder, the top option is probably the oft-injured Kevin Kiermaier. The Rays hold a club option for Kiermaier but are likely to turn it down given his down year and season-ending hip surgery. Cody Bellinger could join the market if the Dodgers decide to non-tender him, though the reason they might do that is because he’s hit so poorly over the past two years. Beyond that group, there aren’t a lot of realistic options who can be expected to secure everyday jobs. As the Mets watch Nimmo depart, the easiest path to filling his vacancy is to simply bring him back.

General manager Billy Eppler recently said that the club is open to moving Starling Marte from right to center, but also spoke highly of Nimmo. Given that Marte recently turned 34 and didn’t play much center this year, it would be a riskier move to ride with him as opposed to bringing Nimmo back. Of course, retaining Nimmo will mean beating the market and paying him to stick around. Given Nimmo’s talents and the dearth of more attractive options, he surely won’t be cheap.

As for Díaz, it’s fairly understandable that the club would want to retain him as well. He is one of seven relievers that the Mets are about to lose to the open market, meaning they will have to effectively rebuild their entire bullpen from scratch this winter. Starting with arguably the best reliever on the planet is a good way to kick things off. He pitched 62 innings with a tiny ERA of 1.31 in 2022. He did that by striking out 118 batters, an incredible rate of 50.2%. He also kept his walks at a reasonable 7.7% and got grounders on 46.9% of balls in play. He even added 2 2/3 innings of scoreless work in the postseason before the Mets were eliminated.

Given that excellence, Díaz will also be looking at a nice payday on the open market. The record deal for a reliever is the five-year, $86MM deal signed by the Yankees and Aroldis Chapman. Díaz has a compelling case that he’s currently as good as Chapman was then or perhaps even better. Since that contract is six years old at this point and inflation generally pushes contracts upwards over time, it’s entirely possible that Díaz sets a new record. Given that the Mets have so many holes to fill, there would be some sense in avoiding mega deals while spreading their money around, but there’s also no doubt that retaining Díaz adds a huge lockdown element to help them win close ballgames.

The fact that the Mets have set their targets on Nimmo and Díaz doesn’t necessarily mean that they are not interested in their other potential free agents, such as deGrom, Walker or Bassitt. Roster Resource estimates the 2023 payroll is around $231MM at the moment, though that will drop by about $40MM when deGrom and Walker trigger their opt-outs. Assuming the Mets pick up Carlos Carrasco’s $14MM club option instead of the $3MM buyout, that will add $11MM back on. Factoring in a couple of non-tenders and the club could be around $200MM, give or take. Owner Steve Cohen has hinted at a $300MM spending limit, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, which leaves plenty of room to make multiple signings if that’s the way the club wants to go. Of course, the players also have a say in the matter, as do the 29 other teams. The Mets will have many strands to follow this winter, even if Nimmo and Díaz are currently at the top of the agenda.

One other route the club has considered is bringing in another Díaz, as Martino reports that the Mets tried to acquire Alexis Díaz from the Reds at the deadline a few months back. Alexis is Edwin’s younger brother and Martino reports that the two are quite close. Seeing the two brothers form a fraternal one-two punch at the back of the bullpen would certainly be exciting, but prying him loose from Cincinnati won’t be easy. 2022 was his first season in the big leagues, meaning the Reds still have five seasons of control over his services, including two more campaigns before Alexis even qualifies for a salary raise via arbitration. The debut could hardly have gone much better, as he tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.84 ERA and 32.5% strikeout rate, though his 12.9% walk rate was a few ticks above league average. He worked his way up the club’s depth chart as the season went on, earning 13 holds and 10 saves.

The Mets are reportedly hesitant to deal from their prospect depth at the moment, preferring to add to the big league team via free agency while they try to get their farm into good shape. That could make a deal unlikely to come together, though it adds another layer of intrigue to an offseason full of it.

Eppler: Mets Willing To Play Starling Marte In Center Field

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The Mets are facing a number of high-profile free agents as the offseason looms. Among them is center fielder Brandon Nimmo, who’s easily the best non-Aaron Judge free agent option at the position. Nimmo and his representatives at the Boras Corporation will soon hear from a number of interested teams, as they’re allowed to formally speak with clubs other than the Mets five days after the conclusion of the World Series.

New York will surely keep in touch with Nimmo themselves, but they do have a potential in-house replacement if he departs. Starling Marte had played exclusively center field with the D-Backs, Marlins and A’s from 2020-21, but he moved to right field in deference to Nimmo after signing a four-year free agent deal last offseason. Marte didn’t start a single game in center field in 2022, logging all of five innings at the position. He played just under 1000 innings in right field.

After spending a year playing in a corner and having recently turned 34 years old, it’s fair to wonder if Marte’s days as a regular center fielder could be behind him. Speaking with Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post on The Show podcast this morning (Twitter link), Mets general manager Billy Eppler said the team would be comfortable deploying Marte as their primary center fielder in 2023 if necessary.

“Can Starling still play center field? Yeah, we believe he can,” Eppler told the Post. “That opens up some optionality for how we ultimately fill out that outfield. … We do have the ability to slide Marte over to center for a number of games, over 50% of the games. He’s got that ability to do that. … We are comfortable with him in center field.”

That’s certainly not a declaration the Mets are closing the book on retaining Nimmo. Eppler called re-signing Nimmo “not a closed case by any stretch of the imagination” and broadly spoke highly of his ability. One can argue for the Mets bringing back Nimmo as the center fielder and a top-of-the-lineup presence while keeping Marte and Mark Canha in the corners. Yet as Eppler noted, the possibly for Marte to slide back up the middle offers some additional flexibility in building out the roster if Nimmo does depart.

Public defensive metrics were mixed on Marte’s performance in right field during his debut season in Queens. Defensive Runs Saved credited him as three runs better than the average right fielder. Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast’s Runs Above Average metric each pegged him below par, with UZR assigning him a -8 mark and Statcast putting him at -2. Eppler didn’t address Marte’s defensive metrics specifically but noted the outfielder battled some tightness in his left groin midway through the season. That perhaps explains in part a dip in his range that shouldn’t linger into 2023 after an offseason of recovery. Marte had zero MLB experience in right field before 2022, but he’d been consistently excellent in the other corner spot throughout his career.

His recent center field work has been mixed but serviceable. Between 2020-21, Marte logged 1509 1/3 innings in center. Both Statcast and UZR rated him a hair better than average, while DRS had him at a below-average but not intolerable -6 runs over that stretch.

In any event, the Mets will have to add an outfielder this offseason. Retaining Nimmo and keeping Marte and Canha in the corners would be the most straightforward outcome. Still, a nine-figure Nimmo deal could be beyond their liking as they also see players like Jacob deGrom, Edwin Díaz, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker (the latter two of whom are locks to decline options) hit the market. New York has as much spending capacity as any team under owner Steve Cohen, but they’re virtually certain to see at least a couple players of note depart for loftier guarantees elsewhere.

If Nimmo is among that group, the Mets would have more to work with attacking the corner outfield market than adding a center fielder. Aside from Judge and Nimmo, the top free agent center fielder is likely Kevin Kiermaier, who’ll be bought out by the Rays after an injury-plagued year. A Cody Bellinger non-tender would add an excellent glove to the mix and vault him above Kiermaier as the #3 option, but Bellinger is a .193/.256/.355 hitter over his past 900 plate appearances. There also aren’t any clear upgrades who’ll be available in trade, with players like Cedric Mullins and Bryan Reynolds looking unlikely to move.

The corner outfield market is a bit deeper. Judge is obviously the prize, but the middle tier of free agency offers options like Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Haniger, Joc Pederson, Joey Gallo, Michael Brantley and old friend Michael Conforto. There’s also a wider pool of potential trade candidates, with Hunter Renfroe, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Max Kepler and Anthony Santander among those who could be floated in talks over the coming months.

NL West Notes: Nimmo, Rockies, Padres, Lawlar

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Brandon Nimmo is “on the Rockies’ preliminary wish list” heading into the offseason, according to Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post.  Given how the Rockies somewhat unexpectedly splurged on Kris Bryant last winter, they shouldn’t be ruled out of making another splashy move, though it will indeed take a big commitment to win a bidding war for Nimmo’s services.  As observed by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco in his recent Rockies-focused Offseason Outlook entry, Colorado is already close to its club-record payroll high, so the Rox may have to go well beyond their usual financial comfort zone to add Nimmo or any other notable free agent (unless they created some payroll space with trades and non-tenders).  The Rockies might at least have a geographical advantage if Nimmo wants to play closer to home, as Denver is less than two hours away from Nimmo’s hometown of Cheyenne, Wyoming.

Signing Nimmo would immediately solidify the center field position for the Rockies, bring some left-handed balance to a mostly right-handed lineup, and give the club some more offensive pop.  While Nimmo has had trouble staying off the injured list during his career, he has always been productive when healthy, and answered some questions about his durability by playing in 151 games with the Mets in 2022.  Nimmo hit .274/.367/.433 over 673 plate appearances, with 16 homers and a league-best seven triples — his 134 wRC+ was higher than any Rockies player with at least 100 PA last season.

More from around the NL West…

  • The Padres surpassed the luxury tax threshold in each of the last two seasons, though it doesn’t seem like the team is planning to curb its spending any time soon.  “We’re good, and we have to protect that and enhance it,” club chairman Peter Seidler told reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune).  Naturally, neither Seidler or president of baseball operations A.J. Preller gave any concrete numbers about offseason spending plans, and Preller noted that the Padres have had the financial flexibility “for the things are going to come up through the season.  Sometimes that calls for players and free agency trades, players of different caliber and different dollar amounts.”  As Acee notes, San Diego already has around $187MM projected for next season’s payroll, and plenty of holes to fill on a roster that might lose some key players to free agency.
  • Diamondbacks star prospect Jordan Lawlar will need 6-8 weeks of recovery time after suffering a fractured left scapula last week during Arizona Fall League play.  A wayward pitch from Orioles prospect Nick Richmond “just hit [Lawlar] in the wrong spot,” D’Backs farm director Josh Barfield told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.  However, Barfield said the injury won’t require surgery or be too much of a setback for Lawlar’s offseason prep, even though it will end Lawlar’s excellent AFL showing.  The sixth overall pick of the 2021 draft, Lawlar just turned 20 years old back in July but has already made his Double-A debut.  Assuming good health and continued progress, it might not be out of the question that Lawlar makes his Major League debut late in the 2023 season, though the Diamondbacks don’t want to rush things with a player who has only 102 total minor league games on his resume.

Mets Notes: Nimmo, deGrom, Eppler, Showalter

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Brandon Nimmo is heading into free agency on a high note, having just had arguably the best season of his career. He hit 16 home runs in 151 games and produced an overall batting line of .274/.367/.433. That production was 34% better than the league average hitter, as measured by wRC+. When combined with some strong work in the outfield, he produced 5.4 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs, eclipsing his previous high of 4.8.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post recently spoke to Scott Boras, who is Nimmo’s agent, with Boras highlighting that this winter’s free agent class is low on impact center fielders and leadoff hitters. Looking at the list of available free agents, Boras has a point. Aaron Judge played some center this year but is primarily a right fielder. Beyond him and Nimmo, the other options are mostly bench/depth types, with the oft-injured Kevin Kiermaier perhaps the only thing approaching a plausible regular up the middle.

Sherman compares Nimmo to Starling Marte and the $78MM contract he got from the Mets but opines that Nimmo has a chance to double that. There are certainly reasons to think free agency will be kinder to Nimmo than it was to Marte, with age being a significant separator. Marte was 33 years old at the time his deal was signed, whereas Nimmo won’t turn 30 until March. Given that three-year gap, Nimmo could try to try to push for a lengthier deal than the four years that Marte secured. Marte was coming off a remarkably similar walk year, as he posted a 134 wRC+ and 5.4 fWAR in 2021. He didn’t have a qualifying offer attached since he was traded midseason, something Nimmo will be saddled with. But there won’t be a lockout this winter to complicate matters and the CBT barriers have all moved higher since then. Combining those factors with the fact that teams are further removed from pandemic losses and the spending environment might be generally more robust than it was in November of 2021, when Marte was signed.

Whether the Mets will be in the Nimmo sweepstakes remains to be seen, but there is an argument to be made for them letting him walk. They could theoretically slide Marte over to center field and focus their resources on a pitching staff that is set for a huge amount of turnover. The Mets have about a dozen hurlers who could reach the open market in the coming weeks, depending on the outcome of some options and opt-outs. Of course, the biggest elephant in the room is Jacob deGrom, who has the ability to opt out of the remainder of his contract in a few weeks. deGrom has been clear about his intention to trigger that opt out, even while he was dealing with the uncertainty of his injured shoulder earlier this year.

Once he reaches free agency, his market will be a difficult one to predict. He has been one of the best pitchers in the game when healthy but hasn’t managed a full season since 2019. The pandemic limited him to just 12 starts in 2020 and then injuries kept him at 15 starts last year and 11 here in 2022. He’s still been excellent when on the mound though, posting a 2.05 ERA over 224 1/3 innings in that three-year stretch, along with a 42.1% ground ball rate, 42.4% strikeout rate and 4.5% walk rate.

Given his excellent quality but diminished quantity in recent years, there is likely to be a wide variance in how different teams will value his potential contributions going forward. For his part, it’s possible that deGrom isn’t particularly focused on strictly maximizing his earnings, with Tim Britton and Will Sammon of The Athletic reporting that the righty will also be looking for comfort, preferring to be closer to his Florida home.

It might be difficult for deGrom to get exactly what he wants in that regard, as the two clubs based in his home state aren’t big spenders. The Marlins have been clearing their payroll in the recent past and then focused on adding offense when they finally did make some recent additions. Jorge Soler’s $15MM salary will be the largest contract on the books next year and it would certainly come as a shock to see them more than double that figure to land deGrom, especially when they have so much starting pitching that they are planning to use it to trade for bats. The Rays have never been huge players in free agency and have a massive 19-player arbitration class. That’s likely going to lead them down a path of making tough cuts around the fringes of their roster, even without adding a marquee free agent expenditure.

Moving outside the state, the nearest team to Florida can be found in Atlanta. They have also been the destination of a pitcher with similar geographic preferences, as Charlie Morton continues to re-up with the club in order to be near his own Florida home. deGrom would surely be a welcome addition to any club from a pure baseball perspective, but there are reasons to think Atlanta isn’t a perfect fit. In addition to Morton, the club also has Max Fried, Kyle Wright and Spencer Strider penciled into their rotation for next year. Jake Odorizzi will likely exercise his player option and take a spot at the back end, something the club surely anticipated when they traded for him at the deadline.

Adding deGrom and then trading Odorizzi would be an attractive way to get around the crowded rotation, though that would come with financial complications. Atlanta ran out a franchise-record Opening Day payroll of $178MM this year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, way beyond the previous high of $131MM from the year before. They already have about $154MM committed for next year, without factoring in arbitration raises for players like Fried. Whatever budget they have left over might need to be earmarked for shortstop, since Dansby Swanson is slated for free agency. Even if the club is willing to let Swanson walk and stick with Vaughn Grissom at short, despite Grissom having only 41 games played above Double-A, signing deGrom would require the club to stretch it’s financial comfort zone even farther.

If deGrom considers Texas to be comfortably close to Florida, there would be a sensible fit on the Rangers. The club was very aggressive in free agency a year ago but still had another disappointing campaign in terms of results. They reportedly plan on being aggressive yet again this winter, with a stronger focus on starting pitching this time around. However, the Rangers arguably only have two rotation spots spoken for, with Jon Gray and Dane Dunning the only ones who can be reliably counted on. It might be wiser of them to spread their money around to multiple pitchers as opposed to focusing on one elite arm like deGrom, even if they succeed in re-signing Martín Pérez. It’s also unknown how deGrom’s reported desire to be near his family would be balanced against a natural desire to suit up for a surefire competitor.

Of course, the Mets will surely hope to overcome whatever obstacles come up this winter and bring deGrom back to Queens, but they will also have other matters to attend to. Beyond Nimmo and deGrom, it will be a fascinating offseason for the Mets, as their other free agents or potential free agents are Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, Chris Bassitt, Trevor May, Mychal Givens, Adam Ottavino, Joely Rodriguez, Daniel Vogelbach, John Curtiss, Edwin Diaz, Tyler Naquin, Seth Lugo and Trevor Williams. It’s anyone’s guess what the roster looks like a few months from now, but it seems there will at least be continuity off the field. Mike Puma of the New York Post relays that both manager Buck Showalter and general manager Billy Eppler are secure in their respective jobs. It was the first season with the Mets for both, as Eppler was hired in November of last year and he then brought Showalter aboard during the lockout. Despite a disappointing playoff loss to end the campaign, the Mets still went 101-61, their best record since 1986. They will look to repeat or top that performance in 2023, though the first order of business will be filling the large number of holes on the roster that are about to open.

MLBTR Poll: Predicting The NL East Winner

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As the regular season nears its conclusion, the playoff picture has mostly come into focus. Of the 12 teams currently in playoff position, 10 have a cushion of at least 4 1/2 games. The Padres and Phillies are working to hold off the Brewers for the final two Wild Card spots in the National League, but the rest of the teams currently in playoff position have put themselves in a great spot to reach the postseason barring a major collapse. There’s an outside shot the White Sox track down the Guardians in the AL Central or the Orioles get back into the AL Wild Card race, but it’d take a major turn of events over the next two weeks.

There’s a similar lack of intrigue in most of the division races. The Astros and Dodgers have already clinched their respective divisions. The Yankees, Guardians and Cardinals all hold leads of six-plus games in theirs. The only division race that promises plenty of intrigue down the stretch: the battle for the NL East.

Both the Mets and Braves are already guaranteed to make the postseason. They’re each likely to surpass 100 wins. Yet one of those teams will come up just shy of a division title, leaving them as the #4 seed in the National League. That means a three-game series against the #5 seed in a first-round Wild Card set under the playoff format introduced in this spring’s collective bargaining agreement. Obviously, both teams would much prefer to secure the division title (and almost certainly the NL’s #2 seed and accompanying first-round bye). Which one is the frontrunner for the division crown? Let’s take a look at the remaining road for each and their current health outlook.

Mets (95-56 record, +147 run differential)

Remaining schedule: at Oakland (three games), vs. Miami (two games), at Atlanta (three games), vs. Washington (three games)

The Mets have 11 games remaining. Eight of them are against teams 28 games or more below .500. The other three: a crucial series next weekend in Atlanta. New York welcomed back Max Scherzer from a brief injured list stint on Monday. He came out with six perfect innings against the Brewers, striking out nine, before being lifted due to a pitch count limitation. The Mets rotation is at full strength at the right time, pushing players like Tylor Megill and David Peterson into the bullpen.

The biggest current injury for the Mets is on the position player side. Right fielder Starling Marte has yet to return after suffering a non-displaced fracture in his right middle finger two weeks back. Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweeted this afternoon that the All-Star outfielder is hopeful he’ll be back in time for next weekend’s series with the Braves. Center fielder Brandon Nimmo, meanwhile, left today’s game with left quad soreness. Mike Puma of the New York Post relays that he’s likely to go for imaging tomorrow but Nimmo downplayed the severity of the issue postgame.

Braves (93-56 record, +171 run differential)

Remaining schedule: at Philadelphia (four games), at Washington (three games), vs. Mets (three games), at Miami (three games)

The defending champions dug themselves an early hole with a mediocre first two months, but they’ve been incredible since the calendar flipped to June. They’re a staggering 70-28 over the past three and a half months, nearly erasing a deficit that was once as high as 10 1/2 games in the process. They’ve pulled even with the Mets in the loss column but have two fewer wins, leaving them with a bit more work to do to get ahead in the standings.

The Braves kick off a four-game set with the Phillies tomorrow. That’s a much more difficult series than any the Mets will play (aside from the Braves themselves), but Atlanta just swept Philly last weekend.

Like the Mets, Atlanta doesn’t have any key starting pitchers currently on the injured list. Rookie star Spencer Strider is battling some oblique soreness and had today’s scheduled start pushed back slightly, but there’s no indication an IL stint is currently under consideration. As with New York, Atlanta is down one star position player thanks to a fractured finger though. The Braves lost Ozzie Albies to a right pinky fracture over the weekend. There’s a chance he returns in the postseason but he’s not expected back before the end of the regular season. Rookie Vaughn Grissom filled in well in recent weeks while Albies was rehabbing a broken foot; he’ll be asked to do the same for the stretch run.

Tiebreaker procedure

The final three games between the Mets and Braves obviously loom as the largest remaining on the schedule for both clubs. Not only are they the most directly impactful in the standings, they also carry implications for the tiebreaker. The new CBA did away with the traditional Game 163 in favor of a tiebreaker system. If two clubs finish the season with the same record, the team with the better head-to-head mark gets the nod in the standings. The Mets lead this year’s season series 9-7, meaning Atlanta would need to sweep their final meeting to secure the tiebreaker.

How does the MLBTR readership expect things to play out? Which team will celebrate an NL East crown two weeks from now?

(poll link for app users)

 

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