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East Notes: Nola, Stroman, Dansby, Riley, Deivi, Lowe

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As the Phillies quest for a playoff berth intensifies, manager Gabe Kapler looks poised to increase his ace’s workload in hopes that Aaron Nola can carry the team to the promised land. As Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports writes, the Phillies are considering starting the 26-year-old Nola every fifth day for the stretch run, regardless of intervening off days. Last year’s third-place NL Cy Young finisher has been far and away the most reliable of the Phillies’ starting rotation, which has sorely lacked for production outside of its ace. If the Phillies were to employ such a plan, Nola would make eight more starts over the next month-plus, which would place him at a total of 35 at season’s end. As Salisbury notes, though, Nola has often benefitted from a fifth day of rest and features considerably better career numbers with the extra day off. Of course, it’s undeniable that Nola is the Phillies’ best option to start games and the club is confident that, in a playoff race that may well be decided in the waning days of the season, their chances are maximized with Nola on the mound as often as possible.

Here’s all the latest from baseball’s East divisions…

  • Mets starter Marcus Stroman left today’s start against the Indians after just four innings because of left hamstring tightness. Tim Healey of Newsday has an update, with Stroman undergoing an MRI that showed no reason for concern. Indeed, it’s only hamstring tightness for the new Met, who has now made four starts with his new club. All indications are that the injury is nothing serious, so it seems as though Stroman should be good to go for his next start.
  • A pair of young Braves regulars are slated to begin rehab assignments in the coming days, per Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Shortstop Dansby Swanson will join the Class-A Rome Braves on Thursday for a rehab stint, with rookie slugger Austin Riley joining him the following day. Swanson has been out since late July with a heel issue, while Riley has missed about two weeks with a partially torn right LCL. While the Braves have found capable replacements for both young stars and has gotten by without the pair, the club would no doubt welcome Swanson and Riley back to the lineup as soon as possible. Swanson has put together his best offensive season, while Riley has gotten his career off to a blistering start, slugging 17 home runs in just 66 Major League games.
  • Yankees pitching prospect Deivi Garcia has been moved to the bullpen for Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre, according to Connor Foley of the Scranton Times-Tribune. While the organization has not given an explicit explanation for the move, it seems likely that it’s motivated by one of two things: most likely, the Yankees are limiting the workload for Garcia, who is just 20 years old and has already eclipsed 100 innings pitched for the season, a threshold that he never reached prior to 2019; or, less likely, the team is preparing Garcia for the role he would have in the Majors as a potential September call-up. The club has taken a similar course of action in the past with Justus Sheffield and Chance Adams, though both were further along in their development than Garcia.
  • Injured Rays rookie Brandon Lowe may have hit a roadblock in his recovery from a right shin contusion, as he exited his rehab game with Triple-A Durham with a left quad strain, according to Juan Toribio of MLB.com. That injury, of course, is separate from the shin contusion, though the severity is not yet known. Lowe will return to St. Petersburg tomorrow to be further evaluated, at which point more details will likely be made available. Lowe, who has generated buzz as a Rookie of the Year candidate, has not played for the Rays since July 2. He had previously been expected to return in late August or early September, but that timeline may have been complicated by the introduction of another, unrelated injury.

Latest On Tyler Glasnow, 3 Other Injured Rays

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It’s unclear whether injured Rays right-hander Tyler Glasnow will be able to pitch again this year, but he isn’t giving up on his season, Juan Toribio of MLB.com reports. Glasnow, out since May 10 with forearm troubles, has been throwing from 90 feet of late and is set for a bullpen session Monday. The soon-to-be 26-year-old told Toribio he feels “really good.”

The Rays’ expectation was that Glasnow would only sit out four to six weeks when he incurred his injury in a start against the Yankees, but he has suffered multiple setbacks during his recovery process. Those issues have helped derail what looked like a brilliant campaign in the making for Glasnow, a 2018 trade deadline acquisition from the Pirates who dominated out of the gates this season. The towering Glasnow posted 48 1/3 innings and eight starts of 1.86 ERA/2.31 FIP ball with 10.24 K/9, 1.68 BB/9 and a 51.7 percent groundball rate prior to hitting the IL.

Glasnow’s ongoing absence is far from the only adversity the Rays’ rotation has faced this season. Reigning AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell went to the shelf three weeks ago on account of arthroscopic left elbow surgery, while the team sent Yonny Chirinos to the IL on Aug. 5 with a finger injury. On paper, a healthy Glasnow, Snell and Chirinos would aid in giving the Rays one of the sport’s top rotation. As things stand, though, they’re lacking traditional starters. Charlie Morton has been superb this year, however, while Ryan Yarbrough has been eminently effective as a starter and a reliever. Their efforts have helped keep injury-laden Tampa Bay in contention, as the club’s 71-52 and a game up on the American League’s second wild-card spot.

The Rays are also missing a few banged up position players, including infielders Brandon Lowe and Joey Wendle and outfielder Avisail Garcia. There’s encouraging news on all three, though, as Toribio relays.

While Lowe still doesn’t have a timetable for a return, he is progressing in his rehab assignment. The 24-year-old second baseman has been out since July 4 with a right shin contusion, which has deprived the Rays of one of baseball’s premier rookies. As with Lowe, it’s not clear when Wendle will be ready to come back, but he also seems to be trending in the right direction as he works back from the wrist injury he suffered in late July. Likewise, things are looking up for Garcia. The Rays placed Garcia on the IL on Wednesday with the dreaded oblique strain, though an MRI on Friday revealed it isn’t especially serious. The club’s hopeful Garcia won’t miss more than the minimum of 10 days, according to manager Kevin Cash.

AL Health Notes: Cole, Indians, A’s, Rays, Tigers

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The Astros made right-handed ace Gerrit Cole a late scratch from his start against the White Sox on Tuesday because of right hamstring discomfort, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic was among those to report. The severity of the injury isn’t known, but it’s worth keeping an eye on considering Cole’s importance to the Astros and his status as the game’s best pending free agent. As of now, the 28-year-old workhorse is on pace for his third consecutive 200-inning season. He has given Houston 156 2/3 frames of 2.87 ERA/3.11 FIP ball with 12.98 K/9 and 2.24 BB/9 in 2019.

  • Indians righty Carlos Carrasco has been battling leukemia, which has kept him out of action since May 30, but he’s champing at the bit to return, Mandy Bell of MLB.com explains. Carrasco, who fielded grounders off the mound at Progressive Field on Tuesday, is hoping to throw to hitters Friday. Manager Terry Francona wasn’t prepared to state whether that’ll happen, saying: “That’s still to be determined. I mean, the idea that he wants to, I think is terrific. But there’s got to be some sign-off from the medical people. But the fact he feels he’s ready to do that is tremendous.” Meanwhile, fellow key righty Corey Kluber was effective over four innings during a rehab start at the Double-A level Tuesday, Bell tweets. Afterward, Kluber called it “the last big step” in his rehab (via SportsTime Ohio). The two-time Cy Young winner has been out since fracturing his right forearm May 1, but the Indians have nonetheless gone 72-47. With a half-game lead in the AL Central, they have the inside track on a fourth straight division title.
  • Athletics southpaw Sean Manaea enjoyed an encouraging rehab start with Triple-A Las Vegas on Tuesday, Ron Kroichick of the San Francisco Chronicle details. Manaea, out since last September after undergoing shoulder surgery, fired 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball and totaled 10 strikeouts. He and fellow rehabbing lefty Jesus Luzardo seem that much closer to giving playoff-contending Oakland a couple much-needed pitching reinforcements. Luzardo, also out all season (because of shoulder and lat troubles), will start for Las Vegas on Thursday, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com tweets.
  • Rays infielders Brandon Lowe and Joey Wendle are moving toward rehab assignments, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. Lowe went to the IL on July 4 with a right shin contusion, while Wendle has been down since the end of last month with a wrist issue. The 25-year-old Lowe had been a serious candidate for the AL’s top rookie honors prior to his injury, as he slashed .276/.339/.523 with 16 home runs and 2.5 fWAR in 307 plate appearances.
  • Tigers lefty Blaine Hardy has undergone a season-ending platelet-rich plasma injection, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News reports. Hardy amassed 44 1/3 innings out of the Tigers’ bullpen this season and recorded a 4.47 ERA/5.72 FIP with 5.89 K/9, 2.64 BB/9 and a 48.5 percent groundball rate.

Latest On Rays’ Infield

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The Rays are set to welcome back a pair of infielders in the coming days. Rays manager Kevin Cash told Juan Toribio of MLB.com that third baseman Matt Duffy is poised to come off the injured list in next week’s series against Boston, perhaps as soon as tomorrow. Not far behind, it seems, is utilityman Daniel Robertson, who will kick off a minor-league rehab assignment in the High-A Florida State League tomorrow, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.

This will mark Duffy’s season debut, as he’s been sidelined by a hamstring strain from the outset. The 28-year-old was Tampa’s preferred option at the hot corner in 2018. Despite hitting only four home runs and slugging .366, Duffy was worth a solid-average 2.4 fWAR on the strength of a high-contact approach and plus metrics at the hot corner (at least in the eyes of UZR). Over four MLB seasons, Duffy sports a career .285/.337/.385 slash (102 wRC+) with above-average defense at third base.

Robertson, who has been out since June 22 with right knee inflammation, was even better than Duffy in 2018, although his offensive output has cratered this season. As a part-time player last year, the former A’s prospect slashed .262/.382/.415 while logging time at all three infield positions. His batted ball metrics never quite backed up that level of production, but the Rays likely still anticipated at least average output at the plate from the 25 year-old moving forward.

Instead, his power has cratered, partially because his already-high ground ball rate has jumped six points from last season. The result: a .202/.311/.281 slash, translating to a 68 wRC+. Nevertheless, there’s room for some optimism about a return to form. Robertson’s elite plate discipline seems to be intact, he’s actually making more contact than last season despite a curious uptick in strikeouts, and his average exit velocity, per Statcast, hasn’t changed.

Things are a little less fortunate for AL Rookie of the Year candidate Brandon Lowe. Topkin tweets that Lowe’s bruised right shin, sustained when he fouled a ball off his leg, continues to impede his lateral quickness on fielding drills, meaning “it will still be awhile before he’s back,” as Topkin puts it. This is the second time in a week we’ve heard frustration with the 25-year-old’s recovery process. The Rays, who have lost five straight and now sit two games back in the AL Wild Card race, could certainly use Lowe in the lineup, as the second baseman sports a strong .276/.339/.523 slash.

In the interim, Lowe’s injury likely means more playing time for Duffy, who seems to have been squeezed out at third base by the club’s offseason acquisition of Yandy Diaz, and hot-hitting rookie Michael Brousseau. Joey Wendle has continued to log action at the keystone in Lowe’s absence, as well, but he’s come nowhere close to repeating his solid 2018 production and could see his playing time dwindle as the club’s infield mix gets increasingly crowded.

East Notes: Thor, Lowe, Bundy, Richard

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The Mets’ struggles have mounted to the point that their general manager acknowledges having “low expectations” for the season’s second half. Despite the organization’s dumpster fire start, their young flamethrower has no hope of going elsewhere. “I love being a Met,” Noah Syndergaard told reporters, including Tim Healey of Newsday. “If something were to ever change, it’d be definitely bittersweet just because of New York City itself, the fan base and just the guys in this clubhouse have a special place in my heart.” As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explored yesterday in a ranking of the top 60 trade candidates, the time might not be optimal to move Thor, who comes with two additional years of team control and is currently amidst a career-worst, albeit still more than adequate, season.

As we await the Mets’ next move, let’s check in on some injury notes from the East divisions:

  • Rays infielder Brandon Lowe might not return from the 10-day injured list until the club’s next homestand, which begins Friday against the White Sox, manager Kevin Cash told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). Lowe, who leads AL rookies with 2.5 fWAR, was placed on the IL July 4 with a right shin contusion, sustained when he fouled a ball off his leg. Lowe’s .276/.339/.523 line isn’t quite sustainable so long as he continues to strike out in a third of his plate appearances, but there’s little question getting his bat back in the lineup will be a boon for a team looking to augment its roster in the coming weeks.
  • While Lowe will take more than the minimum to recover from his injury, Orioles right-hander Dylan Bundy hopes to be more fortunate. Bundy was placed on the IL yesterday with right knee tendinitis, but he tells Roch Kubatko of MASN (via Twitter) he’s confident he can return when first eligible on July 23. It’s been more of the same this year for the former fourth overall pick; despite a solid 24% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate, an inability to keep the ball in the yard has Bundy’s ERA above 5.00 for the second consecutive season. Given his performance, he seems unlikely to be much of a trade chip this summer, even if he does return to the field in short order.
  • The Blue Jays announced they’ve placed Clayton Richard on the 10-day injured list with a left lat strain, activating Edwin Jackson from an IL stint of his own in a corresponding move. Richard departed yesterday’s start against the Yankees after just two innings, leaving the bullpen to handle a hefty workload. The IL stint seems to foreclose any chance the Jays can flip Richard before the trade deadline, but he wouldn’t have been in high demand regardless, as he’s managed only a 5.96 ERA with a woeful 11% strikeout rate over ten starts. The 35-year-old is playing out the final months of a two-year/$6MM contract and is likely headed for a minor-league deal this winter.

Rays Place Brandon Lowe On Injured List

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The Rays announced Wednesday that they’ve placed second baseman Brandon Lowe on the 10-day injured list due to a right shin contusion. Lowe, who was only recently named a All-Star replacement, fouled a ball off his shin Tuesday but remained in the game after talking things over with a trainer. Upon singling to left field with a shift-beating grounder, however, he was unable to run down the line and instead limped his way to first base. He exited the game thereafter. First baseman Nate Lowe is up from Triple-A Durham to take his roster spot. Tampa Bay also optioned righty Austin Pruitt to Durham and recalled fellow righty Jake Faria.

Lowe’s placement on the IL is retroactive to July 3, so he’ll be eligible to return to the club next Saturday for a doubleheader against the Orioles. That said, there’s no immediate timetable placed on his return, so it’s possible he’ll require a bit more than the minimum stay on the shelf. His injury initially looked remarkably similar to that of injured All-Star Tommy La Stella, who’ll miss up to 10 weeks with a fracture, so the Rays surely feel fortunate to have dodged that type of blow.

With Lowe on the injured list, the American League once again had an opening on the All-Star roster. Yankees shortstop Gleyber Torres has been named to the All-Star team in place of Lowe, per a league announcement.

Rays Extend Brandon Lowe

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TODAY: Tampa Bay has announced the deal. It could top out at $49MM in total value if both options are exercised and all incentives are reached, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported.

YESTERDAY: The Rays have agreed to a six-year, $24MM contract extension with infielder/outfielder Brandon Lowe, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The contract contains a pair of club options that would buy out a pair of would-be free-agent seasons as well. Lowe is a client of the Bledsoe Agency.

Brandon Lowe | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Lowe has just 43 games of Major League experience under his belt but is widely regarded as one of the Rays’ most promising prospects. Baseball America rated him as the game’s No. 93 prospect this offseason, while Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs ranked him 46th overall.

The early returns on Lowe in the Major Leagues were relatively promising. The 2015 third-rounder reached the Majors for the first time at the age of 23 and batted .233/.324/.450 with six home runs, six doubles, a pair of triples and two stolen bases (in three attempts). Context-neutral metrics like OPS+ (112) and wRC+ (113) felt his bat was 12 to 13 percent better than that of a league-average hitter when adjusting for league and home park.

Lowe’s 25.6 strikeout rate was likely a bit higher than the Rays would prefer, but he showed power and drew walks at a 10.8 percent clip in his first crack at MLB opposition. That production came on the heels of a sensational .297/.391/.558 slash between Double-A and Triple-A, creating further optimism that Lowe can be an integral part of the Rays moving forward.

Defensively, Lowe has spent the bulk of his career as a second baseman, though he got his feet wet with more than 500 innings of work in the outfield corners last season (between the Majors and minors). Scouting reports have generally projected him as a potentially average defender at second, though he’s considered to be more of a bat-first player.

It’s unusual but not unheard of for teams to lock up players with such minimal MLB experience, and the Rays in particular have done so in past years with both Evan Longoria and Matt Moore. Lowe’s deal will line up identically to the Phillies’ six-year, $24MM deal with Scott Kingery — a contract signed before Kingery even played an MLB game.

There’s certainly risk to committing to a player so early in his professional career, but the $24MM risk is one all the more worth taking for a low-payroll club like the Rays that typically has a great deal of difficulty hanging onto quality players as their arbitration earnings increase. For Lowe, he could potentially have earned more over the course of his three arb seasons — and the option years are sure to be at an affordable rate — but the allure of locking in a sizable guaranteed payday when his first arbitration season is still three years away is understandable. If both of the club options on the deal are ultimately exercised, he’ll reach free agency a few months after his 32nd birthday.

Lowe now joins Kevin Kiermaier as the only Rays players to be guaranteed anything beyond the 2020 season. Charlie Morton, set to earn $15MM in both 2019 and 2020, is the only other player whose contract for the 2020 season is guaranteed at the moment. Of course, given the Rays’ wealth of young talent, it’s quite likely that they’ll explore further extension possibilities between now and Opening Day.

Rays Promote Brandon Lowe

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The Rays have officially promoted infielder Brandon Lowe to the major league roster, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times was first to report. Daniel Robertson has been placed on the DL to accommodate.

The 24-year-old Lowe is a homegrown product, having been selected by the Rays in the third round of 2015’s amateur draft. He’s dominated at every level of the minors since joining the organization, most recently posting a commanding .304/.380/.613 batting line at Triple-A with 14 homers in just 205 plate appearances. And while his 22.9% strikeout rate at that level is a bit high, it’s far from the levels of some of the power threats in today’s game. Overall, his performance was good for a 177 wRC+.

Baseball America ranked Lowe as the 16th-best prospect in a deep Rays farm system prior to the 2018 season, touting his above-average bat speed and penchant for being aggressive on pitches in the strike zone. At the midpoint of the season, MLB Pipeline has Lowe all the way up to ninth in the Tampa Bay organization. The publication raved about his hitting ability and “consistent pop to the gaps” with sneaky raw power and loads of patience. His ceiling will be limited by the likelihood that he becomes a solid yet unspectacular defender at second base.

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